Helmut and the winds of change
Just a couple of BC housing market forecasts courtesy of Helmut Pastrick, the Chief Economist of the Credit Union Central of British Columbia. This first one from a CBC news story, March 17th 2008:
A report by the Credit Union Central of British Columbia predicts housing prices will continue to rise by as much as 10 per cent this year and as much as seven per cent in 2009.
Lower mortgage rates, a tight labour market, high income growth and rising in-migration all point to continued high sales volumes and price rises, according the CUCBC’s chief economist Helmut Pastrick.
..and From today’s Globe and Mail, August 20th 2008:
The housing market will grow even weaker next year, Mr. Pastrick predicts.
The downturn in new construction will last through to the Olympics, and housing prices, down marginally from their peaks early this year, are likely to drop by 10 per cent before the market rebounds, he said. All told, British Columbia looks set to turn in weaker growth than the national average in 2009 after years of outperforming most of the rest of Canada.
A few weeks ago we posted a similar comparison of changing market outlook quotes from Cameron Muir, Chief Economist for the BC Real Estate Association.
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August 21st, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Of course they will, inflation if nothing else will take care of that. When prices aren’t going down, they go up. Which is all fine by Pastrick because he lives in an absolute world.
August 21st, 2008 at 12:26 pm
http://maps.google.com/
http://maps.google.com/
August 21st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 12:28 pm
I still can’t believe you comparing beaches here with Oregeon and other places like Floridas.. I posted earlier providing links on condos much cheaper in florida steps way from the beach where they have beautiful sand and water plus the obvious econ benefits of world renowned surfer/ beach volleyball events and you are still saying ..best place in the world…indicating the beach and the olympics. I’m sorry you are overexposed on the realestate in Fraser valley area but like any investment there are risks you win some you loose some…when you debate you are suppose to counter the other’s persoon point of view with unbiased evidence via links but you’re not… so people won’t listen. saying something over and over again is not constructive or true…just proves you lack the intellect to provide an insightful discussion.
August 21st, 2008 at 12:41 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 12:41 pm
As for Vancouver being a ‘world-class city’, I know several Chinese immigrants who only live here because they couldn’t emmigrate as easily into the US, and they regard Vancouver as–at best–a quaint backwater village compared to their great cities. Vancouver just happens to be a marginally acceptable city in Canada to them.
As for me…I only live here because my lucrative job is here, and it only exists in a couple of cities in Canada, and I have no desire to live in the ‘winter cities’ out east.
But jeesus, it was so damp and cold last night that I could see my breath condense in the air when I took the dog out for a walk. In August. California it ain’t.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:06 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 1:07 pm
ROFLMAO! You’re a gem John!
August 21st, 2008 at 1:33 pm
http://www.worldofstock.com/closeups/NTR2264.php
August 21st, 2008 at 1:35 pm
pinocchio thanks for the good post. A good read. I am an ex vancouverite that lives now in Calgary. I frequently return as all my family is in Vancouver. I would like to add to what you wrote. I always tell people there are no good jobs in Vanouver but you brought up some good points. It is a good city for certain niche(gimicky) industries. And its good for criminals. Or those lucky enough to get a job in a crown corporation.
It was funny you mention vancouver’s non existent social life. I always hated vancouver’s non existent cutlure. But now that I am in Calgary I love it. And its funny half of calgary is from saskatchewan and they all thinkg Calgary is happening. In short Calgary is heaven for people from Saskatchewan and Vancouver is heaven for people from Alberta.
But next to real cities both are boring. I was with friends from Calgary and we did a day trip to Seattle. They all loved seattle better.
I was talking to some family how I loved Calgary’s job market but hated the lack of life and I was told you can’t have it all. Then I mentioned how Seattle had it all. There response was but they don’t have the mountains and ocean. I corrected them and told them not only they were wrong but how my friends even thought seattle was prettier and nicer. All I got was silence.
It amazes me how vancouverites can not only be ignorant of the outside world but of a city 2 hours away.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:56 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
As mentioned, this ignores ferries. Add two hours at minimum. No matter how you slice it or dice it, one can get to Cannon Beach faster than one can get to Long Beach. And without the hassles of ferry schedules or ferry lineups. Worst case scenario is a border wait.
August 21st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
http://www.citysalsavibe.com/
August 21st, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Depends what floats your boat. I know some who have lived in other cities and have moved back to Vancouver for the slower pace of life. By standard measures of boringness I agree with you tho not everyone likes the Studio 54 life.
August 21st, 2008 at 2:11 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 2:26 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 2:36 pm
There are some nice condos there and the streetcars are close by. Worse places to be in the scheme of things. Too bad there aren’t too many RE bull/bear feces-flinging blogs out that way …
August 21st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Rob left Vancouver. He’s in Toronto now.
He took the action with him (I think there’s a lot of wrist movement in his kind of action).
August 21st, 2008 at 2:46 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 2:48 pm
When economists or experts make predictions or do analysis those are all based on data available to them be it Cameron or Pastrick the only point they have missed is that they are unable to give a shit to cheater who bounce in and out in greed to make money otherwise there is nothing to beat their super vision(please compare the peak btw.81,91,and 2008) no one like to nail down the usuall suspects like domestic idiots or gamblers but as far as it is concern to Vancouver real estate there is no down turn in decades to come.
Majority of cheater can make fool out of some one for six month,a deep bound takes six months to heel but there is no need to panic of temporarily gamblers they will be disappointed because realtors fee is equal to 10% of the total amount but rents are up and coming $5000 / 2br - Furnished Robson & Cambie PostingID: 806480154
I wish i should have bought some condo before Brittanny and Christina but then seniority count by date of birth and when we start our profession as i came late up to there so i don’t really feel sorry but i am glad that i have bought some condo in Vancouver,B.C while Jesica Simpson bhought in California “oh my god” I am willing to sing
Vancouver,B.C.THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH.”where smart buyers and fool seller will be countinue”-Nelly Furtado
http://www.aolcdn.com/aolr/2-n.....061107.jpg
From the sold out sellers i have learned that no body sold in loss so far in conclusion “There is only one way exit to vancouver real estate”.UP,UP,& UP.
August 21st, 2008 at 4:15 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Can’t beat the view though, no matter which way you face: the airport, Skydome, Gardiner Expressway, or the railway tracks.
August 21st, 2008 at 4:47 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 4:55 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Yes. It’s worked so far. Just ask John.
When in Toronto my eyelids did freeze shut. The city has many redeeming qualities, just not enough for those that don’t like frozen eyelids. Like me.
August 21st, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Weird because Toronto’s a lot cheaper and if you care to look there are some nice units in some rock solid buildings.
Sweet Jesus that’s gonna be cold in Feb. I’d rather live at Yonge and Eglington….. loads going on, nicer little neighborhoods, way less expensive. Or near Kensington for that matter, or Greektown.
Oh well best of luck Rob. Sept and Oct are really the only 2 acceptable months out that way. Oh and June, sometimes…..
August 21st, 2008 at 5:43 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 6:31 pm
No; almost not at all. People in Toronto only care about New York. Vancouver is not terribly relevant to anything except for vacations.
August 21st, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Rob, I noticed when you aren’t posting incessantly on your blog, you get onto this one as Satv, Rob A Browntown etc.
Perhaps I am the only one whose made the connection or perhaps the rest of the regulars enjoy the entertainment.
Anyhow check out the above link.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:04 pm
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Bill Good, Robyn Adamanche, Don Campbell, Muir, Phil Soper, Carol Frketich
Rudy Nielsen , Ozzie Jurock,
August 21st, 2008 at 7:24 pm
My suggestion? Get over it people.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Made all the more frustrating by the fact that they don’t care whether BC exists.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:46 pm
August 21st, 2008 at 7:46 pm
I don’t hate Toronto. There’s a lot to recommend it. But the weather is AWFUL. You can’t go out in the summer because of the ungodly heat and pollution, and winter is pretty much self explanatory. But Vancouver has plenty about it that blows chunks too. Neither one should be pointing fingers.
August 21st, 2008 at 9:11 pm
I hate to break it to you but there is plenty of land left in B.C. and they can always re claim land and even then there are enough new condos coming to make prices drop for decades to come.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation
Here are some of the world class cities that have done so:
Land reclamation is the creation of new land where there was once water. Notable examples in the West include parts of New Orleans; Washington, D.C. (which is partially built on land that was once swamp); Mexico City (which is situated at the former site of Lake Texcoco); Helsinki (of which the major part of the city center is built on reclaimed land); the Cape Town foreshore; the Chicago shoreline; the Manila Bay shoreline; Back Bay, Boston, Massachusetts; Battery Park City, Manhattan; the port of Zeebrugge in Belgium; the polders of the Netherlands; and the Toronto Islands, Leslie Street Spit, and the waterfront in Toronto. In the Far East, Japan, the southern Chinese cities of Hong Kong and Macau, and the city-state of Singapore, where land is in short supply, are also famous for their efforts on land reclamation. One of the earliest and famous project was the Praya Reclamation Scheme, which added 50 to 60 acres of land in 1890 during the second phase of construction. It was one of the most ambitious projects ever taken during the Colonial Hong Kong era.[1] Some 20% of land in the Tokyo Bay area has been reclaimed.[2] Monaco and the British territory of Gibraltar are also expanding due to land reclamation. The city of Rio de Janeiro was largely built on reclaimed land.
Artificial islands are an example of land reclamation. Creating an artificial island is an expensive and risky undertaking. It is often considered in places that are densely populated and flat land is scarce. Kansai International Airport (in Osaka) and Hong Kong International Airport are examples where this process was deemed necessary. The Palm Islands, The World and hotel Burj al-Arab off Dubai in the United Arab Emirates are other examples of artificial islands.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:04 pm
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:52 am
“sux brass monkey ballz but at least the ballz don’t freeze off.”
Funny story, do you know how the expression “cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey.” came to be?
On old fighting ships they’d keep the cannon balls in a pyramid, to keep them from rolling away there was a brass plate bolted to the deck with impressions for the balls to sit in. That plate was called a ‘monkey’ and because of the difference in expansion between the two metals when the ship sailed into very cold weather the monkey would contract more than the iron balls causing the balls to ‘freeze off’.
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:25 am
“What is the origin of the term ‘brass monkey’?
The story goes that cannonballs used to be stored aboard ship in piles, on a brass frame or tray called a ‘monkey’. In very cold weather the brass would contract, spilling the cannonballs: hence very cold weather is ‘cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey’. There are several problems with this story. The first is that the term ‘monkey’ is not otherwise recorded as the name for such an object. The second is that the rate of contraction of brass in cold temperatures is unlikely to be sufficient to cause the reputed effect. The third is that the phrase is actually first recorded as ‘freeze the tail off a brass monkey’, which removes any essential connection with balls. It therefore seems most likely that the phrase is simply a ribald allusion to the fact that metal figures will become very cold to the touch in cold weather (and some materials will become brittle).”
Aside from all that, the balls were stored flat in the tray, not stacked. Why would anyone stack balls in a pyramid on a ship when any significant pitch would send them rolling every which way?
From another site:
“Other seafaring monkey business relates to ancient forms of cannon called a brass monkeys, or drakes, or dogs. These were recorded in an inventory published in 1650 - The articles of the rendition of Edenburgh-Castle to the Lord Generall Cromwel:
“Short Brasse Munkeys alias Dogs.”
Brass drakes/monkeys were referred to in J. Heath’s Flagellum, 1663: “Twenty-eight Brass Drakes called Monkeys” and in The Taking of St. Esprit in Harlech, 1627: “Two drakes upon the half deck, being brass, of sacker bore”.
There’s also a nautical reference from 1822 for the monkey tail which appears in the earliest known version of the phrase. This was a lever that was used to aim a cannon.
It might sound like the work of CANOE (the Committee to Ascribe a Naval Origin to Everything) but, given these citations and the large percentage of references to brass monkeys in nautical contexts, it seems likely that the inanimate object in question was in fact a naval cannon. The ‘balls’ are a recent appendage.”
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:27 am
It’s not a land problem, it’s a ZONING problem. And since developers own this town, that’s not going to change any time soon. There are TONS of options available (including the one you mention) - we just choose not to use them. Hell, you’ve got Bowen Island sitting 10 minute ferry ride away, but it will never be developed because it’s become Vancouver’s largest gated community.
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 am
I’d have to be crazier than a sh!thouse rat to NOT know that story. That said, it appears my expression has an unfortunate unintended interpretation.
September 3rd, 2008 at 4:46 pm