July 2008: Vancouver prices ‘deflating’

Deflate.  That’s the word the Vancouver Sun is using in their report of July sales data from the REBGV:

The so-called benchmark price for all property types in Metro, excluding Surrey, hit $556,605 in July, down 2.1 per cent from May.

“We’re seeing more price reductions in properties listed on the market, which is a levelling impact on the housing price increases experienced at the end of last year and into the first quarter of 2008,” Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said in a news release.

The numbers from out in the Fraser valley are in as well and looking at least as bad. The Surrey average detached-home sale price is down six percent from June.  As Mohican brings to our attention Chilliwack saw the average house sales price drop 9 percent last month and is now negative year-over-year.

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islander

At the end of the day, Dave can spin all the stats he wants. I can cherry pick MLS, too, and make the numbers say whatever I want them too.

On the way into the bank today to cash a commission cheque, a guy maybe 40 walks up to me (after seeing my logo on my vehicle) and says, "How's the market?"

Before I could answer he says, "Nightmare, eh?"

So we strike up a conversation. He's builds fences. He sees the slowdown. So does my wife, the landscape designer. So does the guy who does my graphic design.

Anecdotal? Sure. But so was "we gotta buy now or we'll never get in" or "the market won't go down here. Victoria is different."

Man on the street knows.

islander

And then he posts again 47 minutes later.

Dave, you may have OCD.

Drachen

Dave "It is akin to using the data for rental rates and occupancy." Which you have argued in the past are invalid. Essentially you're using data which you would argue was invalid if someone else was using it against you. Thank you for the clarification on your duplicity. The case for the 'speculation' statistic is far weaker than the argument for using rental rates an occupancy I might add. Lager not Logger "So in other words our speculation stats don’t look too bad since they don’t take the most speculative sector into account?" The statistic is really misnamed, it's called 'speculation' and Dave likes to pretend that it has a real world value for measuring speculation but it really only covers cases where there were two completed transactions on an actual property (not one in development) within a six month… Read more »

Lager not Logger

I readily admit that it doesn’t capture the entire market because pre-sales aren’t recorded as transactions on MLS.

So in other words our speculation stats don't look too bad since they don't take the most speculative sector into account?

Dave

Drachen, all real estate statistics would be false if we were to apply the standard you suggest. All of the standard metrics are just an approximation of what is really happening in the market. The metric for speculation is useful, but not perfect. It is akin to using the data for rental rates and occupancy. Although not absolute measures, such metrics are very good for demonstrating trends and good for comparing with past data. For example, we know that occupancy rates are lower today than they were five years ago. I don't think anybody would debate that. However, some may take exception of the published rate of 0.5% (or wherever it is now) and argue it is really higher (or maybe lower). Similarly, the volume of units flipped (something speculators do), isn't that high and is much lower than the… Read more »

Drachen

Dave

So, essentially what you're saying is you'd like to use a number you know is false to support your argument and we should all just ignore the man behind the curtain?

When you're busted using your known false statistic you simply point at others and say, "Some of them used numbers that have even less support."

Just because other people use an argument that is 'more wrong' does not make your argument any better. It just makes you look like a five year old pointing fingers.

Dave

His “Speculation” argument is based around some highly questionable statistics that completely fail to actually represent the actual amount of speculation.

It's not an argument at all. It's simply the best statistic that is available from MLS data. I readily admit that it doesn't capture the entire market because pre-sales aren't recorded as transactions on MLS.

I have asked numerous times for somebody else to provide a better metric and to date, nobody has. Rather, commentary provided by others on speculation are purely anecdotal, which is basically useless.

In the meantime, the level of speculation, as defined by multiple MLS transaction for the same unit within a six month period, is a low percentage of overall activity in the marketplace.

rx

Wasn't there supposedly little or no speculation happening in California and Florida before the crash -at least according to all the official sources and talking heads? If you're paying much more for a place than its rental value you're speculating.

Drachen

mln

"Minor amount of speculation. Really."

He hasn't demonstrated anything before. He's run out of arguments so he keeps bringing up old ones that were completely shredded by users here and on NVCondos. He has a bad habit of taking discredited arguments and re-hashing them as though they were solid. He's even taken arguments that have been shown to be completely false one place and within hours of being disproven he's taken those same arguments to a different forum, hoping for a dumber audience I suppose.

His "Speculation" argument is based around some highly questionable statistics that completely fail to actually represent the actual amount of speculation. In fact I can guarantee that the number he likes to cite is less than the actual amount of speculation.

mln

"The only other way that affordability gets driven up in an unsustainable way is through speculation. But, as I have demonstrated before, there is only a minor amount occurring relative to prior booms (e.g. 1980)."

Minor amount of speculation. Really.

Dave

i notice again you fail to address the affordability issue…a 17% drop does not bring prices in line with the rental income metric Affordability, rent to price and income ratios are three different measures. With respect to affordability, how do you think prices got to where they are? The reason is that current prices were affordable to purchasers. The only other way that affordability gets driven up in an unsustainable way is through speculation. But, as I have demonstrated before, there is only a minor amount occurring relative to prior booms (e.g. 1980). I don't have time to comment on the other two measures at the moment, but can if you would like to see my assessment. and you fail to take into account the sales volume drop in the last two months ie.-43% and -45% and August is looking… Read more »

Dave

You know what the above tells me above all else? Measuring falls in “quarters of gains” is not useful, 3, 5, 8? Unless you’re proposing that there’s a pattern and our next fall will be 16 and after that 32? It is a very useful observation. What it tells you is that real estate corrections occur relatively quickly compared to the bull market that preceded them. None of our recent corrections has given up more than two years of gains. On average, it would be around 5 quarters. If we use that rule of thumb, then perhaps our correction will be on the order of 10 to 15%, but not 30% like many are calling for. Why don’t you like using fundamental valuation Dave? Could it be that, although it is the most accurate method of predicting how big a… Read more »

Lager not Logger

Oh and Drachen, just for you I’ll lay off. Krrish drives me nuts and frankly I was hoping if I was graphic enough, he’d go away.

I appreciate this as well – the family insults get repetetive and it seems to me thats exactly the kind of reaction he wants. Lets just enjoy the peace while it lasts.

Lager not Logger

Maybe that’s because you rent. When you buy a place, you get to live near the amenities that mean the most to you.

You've got to be kidding me. Dave, you normally seem to debate in good faith, but this makes me doubt your sincerity – it's such a blatant troll line. You say the outrageous just to get a response it appears. There are very few buildings in the lower mainland without renters, and I know of no neighborhood that is 'renter-free'.

In either case you choose to live near the ameneties that mean the most to you. Arguably it's actually a lot easier to up and move as a renter if you find that the neighborhood you're in lacks amenities.

Strataman

thumbsup "(spectrum jump to $2500 one bedroom)" Is that all? From what I have seen in those Towers you can make a lot more then that. The penthouse in Tower 3 is rented to call girls for three times that in sq.ft price. (For real)! Send me money and I'll give you the Website! 🙂

Chincy

#161…Dave, now also take into relationship current income levels now and then…the bottom line is affordability…hey but goodluck to you, hope you make a million.

Thums up2

BULLS CAN EASILY GET THROUGH,SOURCES ARE GETTING HEALTHIER.

(spectrum jump to $2500 one bedroom)

"Wow, there’s a lot of anger here today. Some people who lose out will definitely deserve it but most of them are just naive and a bit greedy."-Drachen.

Drachen,

Greed is not in the market real bulls are holding the commands,Congratulation to more than 2000 smart buyers who just had catch the r.e. wagon.

Strataman,

you and your sons are very good renter with good credit history and supportive income to pay rent on timely manners thanks for being responsible citizens and please refer some one in your circle here we got beautiful offering $3500 / 2br – 2bed Ocean and Mt view condo PostingID: 787627478-Smart buyers and fool sellers will be countinue……..

Strataman

browntown quote "hey bdk, i check georgia straights," "Did you know you can get this for free ,,,the straights? I was havin trouble keepin up with my Van Sun subscription" "sorry gotta go nother shift at 7/11 oh me I am so damn well off it hurts! " unquote!

Sorry All; just noticed that brown streak wasn't able to get his hole message out, I like to help street people. 🙂 Some are real intelligent yah know..don't judge just on what you hear HERE! Yes I Know Scullboy you think I'm a goodie two shoes !

browntown

hey bdk, i check georgia straights, still 18 "lifestyles" left at 1212 howe! i have your income ratio at 2:2! b-rennie can take your call this month, don't wait for 1212 howe 2. yeah!

arit

bdk,

Are you an author? You should give it a try….

Regards

arit

Drachen

Wow, there's a lot of anger here today. Some people who lose out will definitely deserve it but most of them are just naive and a bit greedy.

Like I said to The Source though;

Think of Bankruptcy as an opportunity to reorganize your life, de-clutter, consider the lessons you've learned and generally be Zen.

bdk

Browntown, are you talking about all the crazy drug addicts that hang out around TV Towers? Or do you mean we should watch as you lose all your money for decades to come? Either way it'll be fun to watch you flail around in your wheelchair spouting nonsense.

Scullboy, why are you worried about renting versus owning?

Who cares what some douche bag mortgage broker named Dave and his hick wife Julie or some semi retarded warehouse worker with multiple personalities think? They are losers and always will be. What matters is enjoying life, getting laid, traveling. Not holding a mortgage on some ridiculously over priced crappy condo that'll go down for decades to come.

browntown

hey bagslaps! only 10-1 ratio? depression style levels considering only house land is now picton farm! hey draken, income ratio now 1000-1 for you! ha ha bdk look for next show at tv towers "the next leg up!" browntown sell you the whole seat but you'll only need the edge!! yeaaaahhh

alexcanuck

So if 4:1 means a possible bubble, and the States was 3.9 just before the end, and we are 10:1, it means ……a soft landing?

I heard some of the Bill Good show's guests. The phrase "A well balanced and impartial panel" doesn't quite fit. Sounds like Dave.

scullboy

It's quotes like this:

“Maybe that’s because you rent. When you buy a place, you get to live near the amenities that mean the most to you.”

that make me seriously consider leaving Vancouver. I've never seen a city where property owners had this kind of insufferable arrogance. You get boneheads like krrish strutting around like they're Donald Trump.

On the upside I'm REALLY going to enjoy the slow motion decapitation (I don't think we can call it a haircut any more ). The fools are strapped in. We hit the top of the ride a couple of months ago. We've juuuuuust passed the peak but the cars haven't quite picked up speed. THe laughter is slowing and the screaming is about to start.

I can't fucking wait.