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August 5th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
…I’m watching to see when Bill Good assembles the RE experts to see how they are going to spin this…I think Bill’s on holiday’s curently, so it’ll probably be within a day or two after his return
August 5th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
john…
I am going to try to put this politely. rich people, regardless if they are Asian or not are rich for a reason. They are good with their money. Why invest in Van or Canada when it is so much cheaper to buy in florida. or Arizona…etc RIGHT NOW. They aare at least 30% less than Van and there is way more selection. true Van does have mountains but Have you compared florida beaches to Vancouvers’ . There are many beach volleyball/ surfing tournaments( such as NKF Pro Am Surf Tournament…AVP Next/Wilson Beach volleyball National Championships, sept-October 2008)
thru a large portion of the year..even the famous Fort Lauderdale spring break. Do you have any idea the amount of revenue generated in those areas? How many such tournaments are held in Vancouver beaches…please tell me. There is only 1 Beach v-ball event @ kits for 2 whole days not even 2 monthes.
Vancouver is anice place but it’s not the best place in the world. I ‘m suprised no one has sued on thr basis of misrepresentation. So just open your eyes and smell the BC BUd because that really is our major export here in BC
August 5th, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Global TV just reported that real estate prices across Greater Vancouver have dropped! I can’t believe it. It must be a lie. If only someone could post a screen capture to prove it.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
And no I’m renting after being in the market for 14 years and selling last summer … 8 bidders – the good old days!!!!
August 5th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Watch what happens to the price of oil to see what will happen to RE prices in Vancouver … It had a 118 handle today down from a high of 147 … do you remember 147 – “we’re running out of oil, price is going to 200 (250 if your the russian oil minister)” … remember tech stocks … stock market is just much more liquid/quicker
Everyone can spout all the stats they want but this market is in for a big correction … split hairs with benchmark (remember your source – russian oil minister?!?) or median prices (inflation adjusted – do you believe CPI?!?) but look at the big picture and remember that it’s never different.
ps buy the HOD – Beta Pro ETF …. I just wish I could short VCR RE
August 5th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
that is really solid humour. i thought browntown’s post in the last thread was post of the day but i’m changing my vote to post 44.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
The upper crust in asia DO buy homes in every city they visit. It’s like the equivalent of the snow globe you buy on your trips to the Walmart in Blaine every now and then. Then there’s the Albertan oil patch workers who just go crazy and buy all kinds of property and toys everywhere they go. They’ll all be coming to the olympics. Sure, Toronto is staying home because they’ve stopped making cars and selling oil futures but down in the heartland things are good.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
It just occurred to me…. think of all the fun we could have if we went out and infected other blogs/ comment sites (Vancouver Sun, Chipman’s numbers) with John – like comments.
Glorious chaos
August 5th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
John,
Gosh what an enlightenment – of course people who visit for the olympics buy a condo here just in case some day they come back to Vancouver.
Kids, pack up we’re moving to Vancouver, after all they hosted the olympics.
Obviously I snappped up a condo at every vacation location I ever went to as they all happen to be on the ocean and very beautiful.
As scully mentioned, keep it up Johnboy you’ve got it all figured out
August 5th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
everyone and their dog would like a vancouver west side house but the very high end of the market weakens quickly. people retrench and the high end loses its move up buyers. i had the peak for the market in november, overall a 5% decline with another five percent baked in the cake based on current numbers. demand/supply/economic conditions are a bit clouded currently but should be a clearer picture by mid/late september.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
John:
I love your posts. You are absolutely brilliant. Keep it up dude. You’re like the antithesis of Krrrrish…
August 5th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
We can discuss ad nauseum benchmark vs median vs average. The latter two are inaccurate because they do not quality adjust. The benchmark is down 4.5% MOM and even more from the peak. We can infer the methods used, though opaque, have some semblance of mathematics behind and I doubt they are using cooked numbers. Note the benchmark was down June-July ’07 as well (but not by much).
August 5th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Islander, I can only assume you are lacking in the reading comprehension department. The three key words that you didn’t pick up on were, ‘on the subject’. The subject in this case should be pretty evident. Let me know if you need help figuring it out.
If you have something useful to post, then please feel free to contribute. In the meantime, go back into your cave with bdk.
August 5th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
This will be my last post on the subject.
And then he posts again 3 1/2 hours later.
August 5th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
John says..
You would be insane not to buy a condo right now! This is probably the best time ever to get into this market…
I feel your pain, buddy.
Sometimes irony just doesn’t cut it, eh?
August 5th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
Taking the Westside SFH median a little further, it looks like the peak was Feb 2008.
Vancouver Westside SFH median prices:
July ‘08: $1,326,500
Feb ‘08: $1,625,000 (DOWN 18% off the peak)
(Note: I’m missing westside median data for Aug 2007 through Oct 2007; it’s possible there could’ve been a higher peak in there somewhere)
August 5th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
You would be insane not to buy a condo right now! This is probably the best time ever to get into this market especially with the new mortgage rules coming soon. I don’t think you’ll ever see such a great selection and such competetive prices for this world class city. Once the Olympics come and everyone snaps up condos you’ll be sorry.
August 5th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Dave: I’m getting them from PaulB’s monthly stats on his website (nvcondos.ca), and from this month’s REBGV statistical release:
http://agentwill.com/statistic.....the-rebgv/
August 5th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Where are you getting your numbers M?
August 5th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
REBGV SFH average prices:
July ’08: $828,781
June ’08: $904,167 (DOWN 8% MOM)
July ’07: $831,195 (DOWN 0.3% YOY)
Peak: Feb ’08: $920,643 (DOWN 10% off the peak)
August 5th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Benchmark versus median…
August 5th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Heh, I beat you by two minutes, PW!
August 5th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
Oh OK, M- found the same thing
August 5th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
“For you Westside wannabes:
VW detached
Jun $1,456,122
Jul $1,390,585
-4.5% MOM, or 65 big ones.
Chump change, my dear sir.”
Really? The numbers I see for Westside SFH median are:
Jun $1,549,000
Jul $1,326,500
-$222,500 or -14.4%
Am I reading it right?
August 5th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
So much for the theory about the Westside being unable to drop due to demand, desirability, and rich affluent buyers!
Vancouver Westside SFH median prices:
July ’08: $1,326,500
June ’08: $1,549,000 (DOWN 14% MOM)
July ’07: $1,415,000 (DOWN 6% YOY)
August 5th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Woohooo!!!!!!! I ain’t got the blues no mo’
August 5th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
STINLESS STILL
satv is that you?
tell me it ain’t so!
August 5th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Otherwise, please crawl back to your cave (rented).
Don’t you mean our “soon-to-be-underwater-flipper” subsidized cave?
August 5th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Now that the smart money has sold:
“$325 MOVING SALE ASSIGNMENT -NON PROFIT,FOR SALE!!! (NORTH BURNABY)”
“BRAND NEW 1BED.+DEN. AT BRENTWOOD GATE,EXCLUSIVE AREA WITH NICE COMMUNITY AROUND..
CLOUSE TO THE HWY,UNIOVERSITY AND COLLAGE AND MALL IS EXCELENT PLACE FOR LIVE.
THIS NICE APARTMAN HAVE EVERYTHING:2BALCONIES,1 PARKING SPOT,STPORAGE,IN SUITE LOUNDRY,GAS FIRE PLACE,STINLESS STILL AND GRANITE COUNTERS,694SQ/FT.
PLEASE REPLAY FOPR MORE INFO.
PAY NOW SOME,AND RST BEFORE YOU MOVE THIS OUTUM….”
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....35645.html
August 5th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
strataman:
a “flaccid” investor?
August 5th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
“like they’re talking about erectile dysfunction?” Judging from couples I know who are recent home buyers I would say there is a lot of “erectile dysfunction” at the moment!
August 5th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
I am simply sharing my informed opinions on the real estate market.
typo!
that should read:
“ill informed opinions”
August 5th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
“I am simply sharing my informed opinions on the real estate market.”
Is PR spin “informed”
Next thing you’ll be claiming tobacco has never killed anyone.
Why don’t you stick to the cafe’s in Victoria and keep your dumb ideas to yourself.
The Pope didn’t confirm that you are not the same person. You could be posting at home and at the cafe or from work but more likely than not you’re at a cafe since Mortgage Broker/Rookie investors don’t have much to do these days.
Say hi to Julie for me.
August 5th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Why is it when talking about price drops the media sounds like they’re talking about erectile dysfunction? “Deflating” prices? A “softening” market? It’s pathetic.
August 5th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Dosh one of them might be your neighbors in three years and you can go to the Strata meetings together and insist on increased fees for more amenities that the newer owners (at 1/2 the monthly mortgage payments) can easily afford!
Isn’t it great to look forward to new cash flow positive blood in your neighborhood? 
August 5th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
BDK, if you read the prior thread you will see that Pope has already confirmed that I have nothing to do with ‘Dave@revnyou’ or ‘the source’.
I only recently moved to Victoria and have always lived in the GVRD prior to that. I am not selling anything. I am not working on anybody’s behalf. I am simply sharing my informed opinions on the real estate market.
This will be my last post on the subject. I think Pope is getting impatient with these silly conspiracies. Let’s stick to the discussions. If you have something intelligent to contribute, then please do. Otherwise, please crawl back to your cave (rented).
August 5th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
I love reading the comments below the article! Check out C22′s if you haven’t already.
Not Mathy – You’re “not facty” either. I used white out, technically not paint (I sniffed, no high), anyhoo, I “painted” my latte this morning whilst on the phone… so get your facts straight. You CAN paint your latte! It’s a stock, that you can’t paint, although I hear they actually used to give paper as representation of the stocks and you can paint them too… so…ya, not sure where to go with that…and so on and so forth.
August 5th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Dosh “Good for people looking to buy, but none of you are buying are you?” Of course not!
My three adult kids now believe me and are SOOOO happy they are sitting with their downpayments…impatient yes but now they are believers, I said wait three years and pick whatever you want at 40+ % off! And they are gonna! 
Me Proud!
August 5th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Again I am writing to question Dave’s motives.
If you really live in Victoria what are you doing on a Vancouver Condo blog other than vainly spreading disinformation?
Are you purposefully hoping someone will believe your spin in the hopes they will go bankrupt? Or are you trying to sell something?
That was nice of your Wife to deny your identity.
August 5th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Dosh
“Good for people looking to buy, but none of you are buying are you?”
None of us are buying NOW that would just be plain stupid. We’ll wait until prices correct to a reasonable proximity of market fundamentals and we’ll laugh at chumps like you all the way to the bank.
August 5th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Hundreds of banks will fail, Roubini tells Barron’s
http://www.reuters.com/article.....0720080803
August 5th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Good for people looking to buy, but none of you are buying are you?
August 5th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
The numbers from out in the Fraser valley are in as well and looking at least as bad.
Did you mean to say “at least as good”??
August 5th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
5% YOY is a significant figure for recent flippers because that is roughly the break even point including transaction costs.
August 5th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Only a $65,000 price drop on the west side? Pshaw! I guess thats almost enough to keep you in lattes and Lulemon pants for a year, but you can’t paint a latte, and you can’t take out a line of credit on lulemon pants. believe me, I’ve tried.
August 5th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
That’s a pretty high decrease for Surrey.
The 1% declines in the other markets doesn’t surprise me and is in-line with my prediction for an approximate 5% decrease for the second half of 2008.
I would speculate that the high price of gas has removed a lot of buyers from considering Surrey and the Fraser Valley. I predict any drops in those markets to be higher than Vancouver, Burnaby and North Van, which have better transit options.
August 5th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
6%? So we’re already over halfway to the commonly cited “maybe a 10% reduction” figure.
It had better level off pretty darn quickly.
August 5th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Alleluia!
August 5th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
For you Westside wannabes:
VW detached
Jun $1,456,122
Jul $1,390,585
-4.5% MOM, or 65 big ones.
Chump change, my dear sir.
August 5th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Well, here we go folks. The downward slide begins in earnest. I think ‘earnest’ is somewhere near Surrey.
Year Over Year price declines are on order for next month methinks – in the Fraser Valley anyway.