On the way into the bank today to cash a commission cheque, a guy maybe 40 walks up to me (after seeing my logo on my vehicle) and says, “How’s the market?”

Before I could answer he says, “Nightmare, eh?”

So we strike up a conversation. He’s builds fences. He sees the slowdown. So does my wife, the landscape designer. So does the guy who does my graphic design.

Anecdotal? Sure. But so was “we gotta buy now or we’ll never get in” or “the market won’t go down here. Victoria is different.”

Man on the street knows.

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“It is akin to using the data for rental rates and occupancy.”

Which you have argued in the past are invalid. Essentially you’re using data which you would argue was invalid if someone else was using it against you. Thank you for the clarification on your duplicity. The case for the ’speculation’ statistic is far weaker than the argument for using rental rates an occupancy I might add.

Lager not Logger

“So in other words our speculation stats don’t look too bad since they don’t take the most speculative sector into account?”

The statistic is really misnamed, it’s called ’speculation’ and Dave likes to pretend that it has a real world value for measuring speculation but it really only covers cases where there were two completed transactions on an actual property (not one in development) within a six month period. Speculation cannot be measured that way.

How many people do you know who have “investment” properties they’re not planning on selling until after the Olympics or similar distant point in time?

How many people are buying a place to live in for the rest of their lives on the assumption it will appreciate significantly over the years?

How many people do you know who ‘flip’ assignments?

I think it’s entirely debatable that 90-99% of people buying residential property in Vancouver right now are speculators.

Dictionary.com says a speculator is:

“someone who risks losses for the possibility of considerable gains”

Using that definition ANYONE buying property that is above it’s fundamental value is speculating and therefore 100% of the Real Estate sales in Vancouver over the past few years have been speculative (with the possible exception of a few cases where family/friends sold a property at a huge discount as a ‘gift’).

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So in other words our speculation stats don’t look too bad since they don’t take the most speculative sector into account?

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The metric for speculation is useful, but not perfect. It is akin to using the data for rental rates and occupancy. Although not absolute measures, such metrics are very good for demonstrating trends and good for comparing with past data. For example, we know that occupancy rates are lower today than they were five years ago. I don’t think anybody would debate that. However, some may take exception of the published rate of 0.5% (or wherever it is now) and argue it is really higher (or maybe lower). Similarly, the volume of units flipped (something speculators do), isn’t that high and is much lower than the 1980 crash. It also peaked out a few years ago and has been declining since. I am not sure why you would want to discount such useful information.

Again, I have yet to hear a better metric for speculation. Feel free to publish your Craiglist index.

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So, essentially what you’re saying is you’d like to use a number you know is false to support your argument and we should all just ignore the man behind the curtain?

When you’re busted using your known false statistic you simply point at others and say, “Some of them used numbers that have even less support.”

Just because other people use an argument that is ‘more wrong’ does not make your argument any better. It just makes you look like a five year old pointing fingers.

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It’s not an argument at all. It’s simply the best statistic that is available from MLS data. I readily admit that it doesn’t capture the entire market because pre-sales aren’t recorded as transactions on MLS.

I have asked numerous times for somebody else to provide a better metric and to date, nobody has. Rather, commentary provided by others on speculation are purely anecdotal, which is basically useless.

In the meantime, the level of speculation, as defined by multiple MLS transaction for the same unit within a six month period, is a low percentage of overall activity in the marketplace.

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“Minor amount of speculation. Really.”

He hasn’t demonstrated anything before. He’s run out of arguments so he keeps bringing up old ones that were completely shredded by users here and on NVCondos. He has a bad habit of taking discredited arguments and re-hashing them as though they were solid. He’s even taken arguments that have been shown to be completely false one place and within hours of being disproven he’s taken those same arguments to a different forum, hoping for a dumber audience I suppose.

His “Speculation” argument is based around some highly questionable statistics that completely fail to actually represent the actual amount of speculation. In fact I can guarantee that the number he likes to cite is less than the actual amount of speculation.

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Minor amount of speculation. Really.

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Affordability, rent to price and income ratios are three different measures.

With respect to affordability, how do you think prices got to where they are? The reason is that current prices were affordable to purchasers. The only other way that affordability gets driven up in an unsustainable way is through speculation. But, as I have demonstrated before, there is only a minor amount occurring relative to prior booms (e.g. 1980).

I don’t have time to comment on the other two measures at the moment, but can if you would like to see my assessment.

and you fail to take into account the sales volume drop in the last two months
ie.-43% and -45% and August is looking like maybe -50%…….

I don’t understand what you are trying to point out here. Please clarify what your comment relates to.

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It is a very useful observation. What it tells you is that real estate corrections occur relatively quickly compared to the bull market that preceded them. None of our recent corrections has given up more than two years of gains. On average, it would be around 5 quarters. If we use that rule of thumb, then perhaps our correction will be on the order of 10 to 15%, but not 30% like many are calling for.

Why don’t you like using fundamental valuation Dave? Could it be that, although it is the most accurate method of predicting how big a correction will be, it doesn’t agree with what you want to be true, so you ignore it?

There is nothing wrong with using fundamental values. There are lots of different ways of doing it and lots of different assumptions that go into it. You also need to project where we are going to be in a couple years, rather than looking back. And you can’t just cherry pick the market that suits your analysis (e.g. looking at worst case).

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I appreciate this as well - the family insults get repetetive and it seems to me thats exactly the kind of reaction he wants. Lets just enjoy the peace while it lasts.

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You’ve got to be kidding me. Dave, you normally seem to debate in good faith, but this makes me doubt your sincerity - it’s such a blatant troll line. You say the outrageous just to get a response it appears. There are very few buildings in the lower mainland without renters, and I know of no neighborhood that is ‘renter-free’.

In either case you choose to live near the ameneties that mean the most to you. Arguably it’s actually a lot easier to up and move as a renter if you find that the neighborhood you’re in lacks amenities.

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“Wow, there’s a lot of anger here today. Some people who lose out will definitely deserve it but most of them are just naive and a bit greedy.”-Drachen.

Drachen,
Greed is not in the market real bulls are holding the commands,Congratulation to more than 2000 smart buyers who just had catch the r.e. wagon.

Strataman,
you and your sons are very good renter with good credit history and supportive income to pay rent on timely manners thanks for being responsible citizens and please refer some one in your circle here we got beautiful offering $3500 / 2br - 2bed Ocean and Mt view condo PostingID: 787627478-Smart buyers and fool sellers will be countinue……..

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]]> http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/08/july-2008-vancouver-prices-deflating.html#comment-24287 Strataman Fri, 08 Aug 2008 03:52:47 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/08/july-2008-vancouver-prices-deflating.html#comment-24287 browntown quote "hey bdk, i check georgia straights," "Did you know you can get this for free ,,,the straights? I was havin trouble keepin up with my Van Sun subscription" "sorry gotta go nother shift at 7/11 oh me I am so damn well off it hurts! " unquote! Sorry All; just noticed that brown streak wasn't able to get his hole message out, I like to help street people. :-) Some are real intelligent yah know..don't judge just on what you hear HERE! Yes I Know Scullboy you think I'm a goodie two shoes !<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-24287">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> browntown quote “hey bdk, i check georgia straights,” “Did you know you can get this for free ,,,the straights? I was havin trouble keepin up with my Van Sun subscription” “sorry gotta go nother shift at 7/11 oh me I am so damn well off it hurts! ” unquote!
Sorry All; just noticed that brown streak wasn’t able to get his hole message out, I like to help street people. Some are real intelligent yah know..don’t judge just on what you hear HERE! Yes I Know Scullboy you think I’m a goodie two shoes !

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Are you an author? You should give it a try….

Regards
arit

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Like I said to The Source though;

Think of Bankruptcy as an opportunity to reorganize your life, de-clutter, consider the lessons you’ve learned and generally be Zen.

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Scullboy, why are you worried about renting versus owning?
Who cares what some douche bag mortgage broker named Dave and his hick wife Julie or some semi retarded warehouse worker with multiple personalities think? They are losers and always will be. What matters is enjoying life, getting laid, traveling. Not holding a mortgage on some ridiculously over priced crappy condo that’ll go down for decades to come.

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I heard some of the Bill Good show’s guests. The phrase “A well balanced and impartial panel” doesn’t quite fit. Sounds like Dave.

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“Maybe that’s because you rent. When you buy a place, you get to live near the amenities that mean the most to you.”

that make me seriously consider leaving Vancouver. I’ve never seen a city where property owners had this kind of insufferable arrogance. You get boneheads like krrish strutting around like they’re Donald Trump.

On the upside I’m REALLY going to enjoy the slow motion decapitation (I don’t think we can call it a haircut any more ). The fools are strapped in. We hit the top of the ride a couple of months ago. We’ve juuuuuust passed the peak but the cars haven’t quite picked up speed. THe laughter is slowing and the screaming is about to start.

I can’t fucking wait.

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