The economic endtimes are nigh!

Vansanity points out an interesting article comparing warning sign of economic downturn in the US and Canada:

Fifty-five thousand jobs disappeared last month. The shockingly large loss was the biggest monthly drop in 17 years. But the employment report shouldn’t be too surprising—warning signs abounded. Now, just like all the people who were partying it up around Noah’s ark when the rain first began to fall, some Canadians are finally beginning to wonder if a flood really is coming.

As Ignatius points out ‘The Trumpet’ is a religious publication, and if there’s one thing housing market bears and certain religious people have in common it’s predicting end-times where the righteous will get their reward and those that have succumbed to the sins of sloth and greed will get thier come-uppance.   Of course William Kamm and Nouriel Roubini have dramatically different track records at this point.

Regardless of your opinions on religion this article nicely sums up some recent economic news and may raise some red flags for anyone that believe that faith alone can maintain a market.

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ellery
ellery
12 years ago

"vancouver has some things in common with New York, but that doesnt mean were exactly like them. In many ways we’re better."

way better. we have more rainbow unicorns. we have more fairy dumpling cakes. we have "action". all we're missing is a little population, economic infrastructure and concentration of global cultural activity.

Dosh
Dosh
12 years ago

your either lying bdk or you think im someone else. vancouver has some things in common with New York, but that doesnt mean were exactly like them. In many ways we're better. I also never said vancouver had 'decoupled' from the economy. I said that we're not as vulnerable to downturns as we once were.

bdk
bdk
12 years ago

Dosh,

You're the one who said Vancouver was just like New York and that Vancouver had decoupled from the Global economy.

Dosh
Dosh
12 years ago

bdk, I disagree with you so that makes me an idiot? Or are you just trying to bait me?

blueskies
blueskies
12 years ago

…who needs credit anyway?

http://tinyurl.com/creditcrunch

But a big crunch is coming – and here's why. Credit card debt, like mortgage debt, gets bundled, securitized, and sold off by banks.

blueskies
blueskies
12 years ago

yes, where is satv?

we need his prognostications of the

RE roadkill entrails to find out about

"the next leg up"

scullboy
12 years ago

JOhn's a joker, but Rob A. isn't. I still wonder which neighborhood in Toronto you moved into, Rob…. if indeed you did move. You *sure* you're in the t-dot?

bdk
bdk
12 years ago

I knew people in the late 90's who planned to be retired by 30 through investing $1,000 per month for a few years.

The Tech market was clearly going to go up forever unless:

"WHAT!! are you saying the internet is going away??"

Luckily Vancouver has since de coupled from the global economy and will continue to rise forever.

Where is SATV anyway? I thought he'd try to dispute that the market was going to drop for decades a bit more, if SATV's figured it out then the market is hooped because he was the one of the last who believed.

Rob A. is just a joker like John, there is no way he could be as stupid as he pretends.

SATV/Krish/dosh/thumsup/browntown/informer on the other hand seems sincere in the stupidest way.

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Rob A

"I’m not like those people who keep saying “the market is going to crash” and are wrong year, after year, after year."

I know it's a strain on your mind, but try to remember, I have explained this before. The simplest way to put it is;

If, during the night a man says the sun will rise again he is not wrong at 2:00, 3:00, 4:00 etc. He is right all through the night and he's proven right when the sun does rise.

"And I don’t say that things are goign (sic) to go up forever when I think they aren’t because I’m afraid to change my mind."

So you're predicting a crash now too? You're catching a little bit of whatever form of verbal diarrhea SATV has.

jesse
jesse
12 years ago

"BC completely missed the tech bubble."

You are wrong. Glenayre, PMC-Sierra, Creo, Hothaus. In the late '90s it was pretty easy to find a job in tech in Vancouver if you had the skills.

James
James
12 years ago

BC completely missed the tech bubble. The 1990s in this province were a complete wash out. At my 10 year reunion there were 5 people out of 100 in my class who still live in BC. Most moved to Alberta and Toronto or the US. Everyone in senior year was pretty much saying that BC was toast and there was no future here. Anyway this time around we have a lot more development and infrastructure province wide than we would have if we just decided to stiffle everything with red tape and taxes. There's been lots of great years of near full employment and high productivity. Who knows what the future holds for sure. We know that the housing market will tank accross the province. A lot of people will be out of work and a lot of debt is… Read more »

patriotz
patriotz
12 years ago

It’s nice that BC was at least on board this train unlike the tech bubble.

BC was very much on board the tech bubble. Particularly this company, where the grunts became millionaires.

And I don't see what's "nice" about being on board the RE bubble, it's going to cause this province years of economic grief and bankruptcy for many ordinary people, due both to the local bubble and the fallout from south of the border. The tech bubble had no adverse effects on any ordinary BC'er, only stock market punters and some techies who lost their jobs.

Rob A.
12 years ago

Well whatever, the situation change and nothing lasts forever. I've been right about downtown vancouver for a long time, and if things change I want to keep being right so I use my brain and make a decision.

I'm not like those people who keep saying "the market is going to crash" and are wrong year, after year, after year. And I don't say that things are goign to go up forever when I think they aren't because I'm afraid to change my mind. I deal in facts and reality.

Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
12 years ago

Some boomers will stay employed one form or another, health allowing. However, employers like to retire older, better paid employees. I think massive waves of retirements will be unavoidable.

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Patiently Waiting

"If there is one thing that may limit unemployment this time, its retiring boomers."

Unfortunately those retiring boomers are just going to be a drain on the system because many of them will have lost their life savings and their retirement money to gambling on real estate. I think many of them will have to put off retiring as well so I think they're more likely to hurt than help (that and the boomers have a knack for being selfish and screwing the next generations over).

VancouverBanker
VancouverBanker
12 years ago

James: "It was close last time and it could very well be an NDP victory next May. I hope they don’t win but who knows."

I don't love the Liberals, but the NDP and Greens are truly scary. Although, I have to say I'm glad the NDP expanded the Skytrain line (notwithstanding they only did it to pay back their union friends).

matt
matt
12 years ago

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC….

[b][i]VANCOUVER — British Columbia's economy is sputtering as the U.S. housing crisis continues to undermine exports, driving down growth this year to its lowest levels since the Liberals took power in 2001, according to estimates issued yesterday.[/i][/b]

VancouverBanker
VancouverBanker
12 years ago

Drachen: "Where would you go though?"

Tough call, I'd love to hit Hong Kong or China again, lived in each for short periods. But my better half is not thrilled about the idea.

Back East is not great right now from what I've heard, at least in finance jobs, and never been a big fan of anything east of Vancouver anyways.

Was considering London or Sydney, but both have nose-dived as well in the last six months. So it looks like I'm kind of out of options.

beta
beta
12 years ago

don’t see how he ads any value at all in economic prognostication.

He doesn't, but his public pronouncement of the by-now-obvious is going to be a hard pill to swallow for bulls who've used his prior guesstimates to substantiate their wish-fulfillment beliefs.

Denial becomes harder to maintain when your heroes have already capitulated.

macchiato
macchiato
12 years ago

The key with the latest G&M article is that EVEN Helmut Pastrick is calling correction now. The guy is a fence-sitter, as long as it seemed to be chugging along, he spouts the good news, as soon as there is quite convincing evidence of a downturn, he changes his tune. I don't see how he ads any value at all in economic prognostication.

Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
12 years ago

James,

Whats so fun about young families going into crippling debt?

Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
12 years ago

The early 80s recession happened under Social Credit (what the Liberals were before they changed their name).

If there is one thing that may limit unemployment this time, its retiring boomers. Some jobs may be made redundant, but large employers will still need to maintain a skilled workforce. In the 80s, boomers were midway through their careers.

James
James
12 years ago

I think a lot of people have bet the future on the real estate bubble. It's nice that BC was at least on board this train unlike the tech bubble. The ride down is going to suck but it was fun while it lasted. I think a lot of people have bet the future on the real estate bubble. It's nice that BC was at least on board this train unlike the tech bubble. The ride down is going to suck but it was fun while it lasted. The NDP would just excersperate the problems to come. Just look at the proposed speculator tax and all the other loony tune ideas. I think you might be wrong about their fortunes though. It was close last time and it could very well be an NDP victory next May. I hope they… Read more »

patriotz
patriotz
12 years ago

If the NDP or green party manage to capitalize on the economic collapse we could be in for some serious trouble in BC.

And who has been running the province since 2001? Gordo has been putting all our money on the global RE bubble and has finally rolled snake eyes.

The NDP will not win the 2009 election, which means nobody will be able to blame them for the upcoming debacle.

jesse
jesse
12 years ago

"housing prices, down marginally from their peaks early this year, are likely to drop by 10 per cent before the market rebounds"

We all know the "stopped clock is right twice a day" thing. A slow clock? Pretty much never right.