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September 4th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Brittanny
I think, ‘Bitch #44′ is Satv/thumbsup/Krrish. Finally he’s picked a name that suits his personality.
September 4th, 2008 at 9:48 am
“the only person with the name Dave reserved is also Dave @ Revnyou”
I’m pretty sure they’re different personalities and almost definitely different people altogether.
September 4th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Comment #44- Now at the “anger” stage.
September 4th, 2008 at 9:09 am
“Pastrick is a genuine individual.”
Gosh, that sounds impressive but means nothing.
“he has been pretty accurate in the last decade on predicting prices”
LOL. So were the other bulls, predicting “up” consistently, but that’s changing now.
September 4th, 2008 at 8:58 am
The typical Metro Vancouver detached home sold for $737,985 in August, down 4.3 per cent from May. The typical apartment, at $374,366, was down 3.9 per cent. The typical townhouse, at $463,433, was down 3.2 per cent.
Sales in the Fraser Valley market dropped 48 per cent in August to 910 units, compared with 1,763 units in the same month a year ago.
Attention hairstylist/warehouse workers and all wanna be donald trump who’ve leveraged themselves into bankruptcy.
Stop being so bitter you made your bed and if all goes well you’ll be discharged from bankruptcy in seven years.
September 4th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Hmm, the only person with the name Dave reserved is also Dave @ Revnyou
Thanks for the unbiased, untrue, wanna be realtor/mortgage broker speak.
I’m sure your wife is proud of you for being so productive.
September 4th, 2008 at 8:29 am
JR,
I was one of the witness in elimentary school when all students were checking their results those who passed they were presenting flowers to their teachers and those who were failed some of them did show some guts to throw dust in teachers head.
Moral of the story is that your comment tells me you are one of those loser who missed the boat you fucking idiot.
September 4th, 2008 at 7:58 am
As for Pastrick, he’s just a professional corporate flack, so I wouldn’t expect him to be objective either now or in the future. The real issue is that his employers, the credit unions, are not acting in the best interests of their membership. But that’s an issue for them to resolve really.
Pastrick is a genuine individual. He is far from being a professional corporate flack. He states what he sees and he backs it up with good solid data. Not only that, he hasn’t wavered on the source of his data or methods for years. He is as consistent as they come. Further, he has been pretty accurate in the last decade on predicting prices.
September 4th, 2008 at 6:29 am
“RRSP’s are now protected against creditors in bankruptcy.”
They already were in some provinces. RRSPs could be judgement proof anyways if set up properly. On the other side, do you think banks are ignoring this? Guess what is longer going to be assumed as potential collateral when making a home loan. This could put even further downward pressure on house prices.
The other funny part is many raided their RRSPs to buy property. Always be optimistic about these things!
September 4th, 2008 at 1:28 am
That’s just heartbreaking. RRSP’s are now protected against creditors in bankruptcy. She should have just walked away.
http://www.bankruptcycanada.co.....ptions.htm
The same thing has been going on in the US with IRA’s.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:45 am
I drove around Coquitlam Centre today. The number of condo buildings in various stages of construction is truly mind blowing.
A friend of mine had to leave her job for health problems. She has drained all her savings including RRSPs, but she is still trying to keep her Coquitlam condo. I don’t have the heart to point out the obvious to her.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:16 am
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/faculty_hamilton.html
Sommerville’s replacement.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:16 am
We’ll have to hope for either Tsur’s or Pastrick’s dismissal, so either one or both of them can say what they really think, a la Thornberg.
If Somerville is tenured, he has no excuse for not speaking his mind right now. That’s why we have tenure. If he isn’t, the blame ultimately lies with his employers, i.e. UBC and the provincial government, which is using our tax money to pay for this nonsense.
Anyone know?
As for Pastrick, he’s just a professional corporate flack, so I wouldn’t expect him to be objective either now or in the future. The real issue is that his employers, the credit unions, are not acting in the best interests of their membership. But that’s an issue for them to resolve really.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:11 am
Earlier on the news (forget which one) a Sauder Prof by the name of Hamilton said prices might drop 10% over two years, some condos maybe more.
I think Sommerville has been replaced by a new liar.
September 4th, 2008 at 12:11 am
Those buildings are absolute shit. Don’t take my word for it, go check them out yourself. Like many buildings downtown nowadays, cheap materials on top of more cheap construction, like non-square, cracked, porous slabs.
I have been inside so many of these buildings through work and more and more I keep finding units where nothing is square, I mean nothing! These guys are building these crap shacks as fast as possible, standards? Pffft, no time for standards or quality.
September 3rd, 2008 at 11:37 pm
Addendum to my previous post. I just watched a clip of this evening’s CTV news. The erstwhile spokesperson from CMHC acknowledged that prices are cooling (who knew?. Don’t panic, however; she opined “we’re not expecting further price declines, just more moderate price increases in the three to four percent per year range” (or words to this effect). The really sad thing is that most people will believe her. I can envision her in a past life as the deck chair attendant on the Titanic.
September 3rd, 2008 at 11:33 pm
I doubt there will be buyers at $450,000. Monthly maintenance is $368! and on top of that, the 2 bedroom has NO PARKING!
“23Scamcouver Says:
September 3rd, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Take a look at this listing:
http://tinyurl.com/6prfto
I was walking through the area in early May and was curious how these multi-level one bedrooms looked. I believe it was the owner and his mother hanging around showing the place. List price then was 629K; now 498K. The owner gave me the following line, in the context of me owning it: “You could probably sell it in a year and make money.” ”
September 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Point taken Patrioz. We’ll have to hope for either Tsur’s or Pastrick’s dismissal, so either one or both of them can say what they really think, a la Thornberg. Mind you, a reversal of fortune in their respective jobs would no doubt significantly heighten their candor and objectivity. This in turn would disqualify them from the list of usual suspects; those solicited for their opinions by our local media.
September 3rd, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Regarding the breaking news posted by Condohype:
“Somerville added that prices reflect more than just the balance of supply and demand, in which buyers currently have the advantage: They also reflect the expectations of buyers”
This is not a buyers market! If a transaction takes place now its advantage seller. Buyers market is down the road.
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
“prices are falling because they got too freaking high”
no!no!you are absolutely wrong,Actually bats are on break and “fool sellers” are joining them to tell the idiots that prices are falling but “smart buyers”are doing the real math that’s why they are SMART BUYERS.
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Hey Tsur, Pastrick, Cameron et al. Is there a lesson here?
For sure. If you don’t want to lose your job like Thornberg did (UCLA Anderson Forecast), just keep on saying what your bosses want to hear.
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Hey rich New Yorkers! Wanna condo in Montreal? Only $1,995,000!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09.....ref=slogin
I mean, it’s so much more exciting than a mansion in Westmount for the same price:
http://www.mls.ca/redirect.asp.....=MT1462113
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Tsur Sommerville’s counterpart in California is Chris Thornberg. They both follow RE, they are both economists, they are (or were until recently) both attached to academia; however, there the similarity ends. I read where Chris recently stated “forget sub-prime, ALT-A etc. as the cause of falling prices; prices are falling because they got too freaking high”.
Hey Tsur, Pastrick, Cameron et al. Is there a lesson here?
September 3rd, 2008 at 9:55 pm
The only thing left to do now is to schedule a Bill Good show.
Have a panel of impartial “experts” tell us about how we are land locked, and have an acute shortage of land which is coveted by billionaires world over and how Vancouver is a world class city.
Then have some realtors stack the phone lines and phone in from the Heartland to tell Vancouverites not to panic because the rich Albertans are buying everything in sight.
And if anyone brings up the affordability issue, just tell them to stop having lattes, to save money.
And oh yeah the Olympics are coming.
September 3rd, 2008 at 9:25 pm
BUY WHILE TECHNICIAN TO SET UP NEXT LEG IS BUSY
*Total inventory of 17,950 is down 6.2 per cent from July.
*$3600 / 3br – 1450sf 2 Levels 3 Bedroom Penthouse PostingID: 826376447
*“Buyers are SMART and Sellers are FOOL”-.Admit Lorne Goldman and Tsur Somerville.
September 3rd, 2008 at 9:13 pm
I wouldn’t use assessed value to determine a fair purchase price.
Nor would I. The assessed value is just an estimate of market price, in other words what the latest greater fool has paid for a similar property, on the assessment date. A fair purchase price is based on fundamentals – what the property would rent for.
Assessed value is useful, however, to see trends in market price. Individual assessments may be off the mark, but if you see asking prices below assessment across the board, you know the market is in trouble.
September 3rd, 2008 at 9:10 pm
“sales have fallen off a cliff”
That confirms it. Tsur is an idiot. I gave him the benefit of the doubt that he was spinning under orders from his bosses but no way would they let him say that. On the plus side, I’m glad to see academic freedom is alive and well. On the minus side it puts into question Sauder’s other teachers, some of which are actually good.
Is that really the quality of academic thought at Sauder? I’d really like to know.
September 3rd, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Take a look at this listing:
http://tinyurl.com/6prfto
I was walking through the area in early May and was curious how these multi-level one bedrooms looked. I believe it was the owner and his mother hanging around showing the place. List price then was 629K; now 498K. The owner gave me the following line, in the context of me owning it: “You could probably sell it in a year and make money.”
I discretely gave my girlfriend, who was with me at the time, an elbow nudge. Nothing more needed to be said between us about the audacity of this specuvestor. Guess his “prediction” is not going to pan out.
September 3rd, 2008 at 8:37 pm
No surprise
No surprise,
here as well,
except
the velocity of the unfolding
Regards
arit
September 3rd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Breaking news! Tsur Somerville admits sales have fallen off a cliff. Don’t believe me? Look under the headline.
September 3rd, 2008 at 7:40 pm
should have read “inventory at record high”
September 3rd, 2008 at 7:39 pm
If there were never to be another recession, and if interest rates stayed at zero, and unemployment went to zero, the bubble would eventually blow up, just the same.
It so happens that the economy is souring, inventory is at an all time low, demand is exhausted, and borrowed demand from the future has been sucked up as well, sales are down by50% affordability has hit the wall, and things are unraveling a little quicker, that all.
More intense pain, for longer than usual up ahead.
September 3rd, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Vancouver in specific is what people want.
except they don’t given current sales figures of -70+%
YOY Aug 07-08….
kinda blows your argument outta the water no?
September 3rd, 2008 at 6:05 pm
I was just talking with a man who has a house in Guildford and he’s having a heck of a time selling it. Had one offer through a private sale and the buyer walked. He kept the deposit, but he’s still not too happy. The next offer was from someone offering the same price he’d paid for the property 2 years ago. He was really upset and turned that right down, as he felt it was ridiculous.
What are those 5 stages of grief again? Starts with denial, then anger…. next comes bargaining, depression… acceptance.
I think the sellers have been in denial, but are moving through anger now.
September 3rd, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Dosh Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Nobody wants to live in the US, thats why their prices are down. Its all about demand, and demand for canadian property, Vancouver in specific is what people want.
September 3rd, 2008 at 5:29 pm
7
bdk Says:
February 27th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Laguna Parkside (1925 Alberni) has reduced the asking prices by about 10% and there is an extra $5,000 commission in it for realtor who brings in a sale, they have been sitting on the market for 364 days and no takers.
There are also vacant units for rent in there for $3k-4k that no world class renters want to pay for either.
Now why would all these wisemans choose not to “buy our own place what we need is a monthly payment and some money for food and entertainment”
Does this mean no one wants to spend over $6,000 a month to own a 1050 sq ft unit on a busy street in the west end? Where are these manual labourers who’re making $240,000 like Krissh and Tom Vu who want to be world class and ” Desire:when we know we have to live our life in this city forever”
Forever or until the warehouse that Krissh works in lays him off and he ends up standing in line at Labour Ready, hoping to make $10 an hour to shovel dirt in the rain.
Go Krissh go!
Please stick around as the market runs out of buyers and the onslaught of new units hit the market.
Bill Eden figured 95% of the Sophia buyers were speculators.
A wiseman told me that 75% of downtown units were purchased by speculators.
This means krissh and dosh better hurry up and start buying because no one else is.
“When we reach up to here no more fuss just beautiful life is above to begun rest is a history start of the new day.”
September 3rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
#
120
Michael Randallbard Says:
March 6th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Drachen
Gold is going to $1,650 within the next 12 months. Buy some today or lose out on easy money. BTW, what would YOU invest in now? This should be interesting to hear.
Oh yes most investors are just like me, making about 5 to 10 grand
.
.
.
.
.
.PER DAY
September 3rd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
really big money going down!
http://tinyurl.com/682exw
Anderson confirmed on Tuesday what had been rumored in the $2 trillion industry for days — the Ospraie Fund lost 27 percent in August, forcing him to close it with a crippling 39 percent loss for the year.
September 3rd, 2008 at 5:10 pm
“Don’t forget that the US basically avoided the classification of a recession through their ingenious political tactic of rebating 1% GDP back to all Americans which then gave a slight “bump up” in the numbers.”
Except, as Friedman once noted, consumers tend to save most of these short-term rebates, not spend them. That would explain the small bump in consumer spending during the period.
The US didn’t get 3+% GDP growth in the last quarter from rebate checks. It came from surging exports, as the data clearly shows. As I’ve been saying since the beginning of the year, the data is not bearing out the predictions of recession, especially a severe one. Take the factory orders today. Not only did they beat expectations, but months of inventory fell and capital goods spending — an indicator of future investment — jumped over 6%.
The US isn’t out of the woods but it’s doing pretty good. Thankfully I didn’t listen to conventional wisdom and bought US dollars with my GBP earlier this year. That’s a more than 10% gain on a currency that everyone wrote off as toast.
September 3rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
One of the places I monitor house rental prices is here: http://classified.van.net/clas......nsf/index where I track North Van (via the House Rentals section of the North Shore News).
Typically for the past couple of years there have been between 10 and 25 houses for rent at any given time.
I ran the search today for the first time in a few weeks and found 75 houses for rent. Rather a substantial bump up.
September 3rd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
A 2% drop in a month? This market turned around scary-fast.
September 3rd, 2008 at 1:31 pm
At $737K, you’d still make money if you bought today and rent it out for $30K during the Olympics…
NOT!
September 3rd, 2008 at 1:04 pm
REBGV stats released. Buh bye specuvestors:
May detached benchmark: $771,250
June detached benchmark: $765,654
July detached benchmark: $753,165
August detached benchmark: $737, 985
September 3rd, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Are you sure assessed equals purchase price? If you underpay or overpay it doesn’t reduce your property tax compared to like units. Regardless, I wouldn’t use assessed value to determine a fair purchase price. It’s there to tell you what prices probably were over a year ago and even then many assessments are disputed anyways because the owners know better; often it’s disputed to decrease the assessed value. No irony there.
September 3rd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Question about assessed value for new units:
I understand that the assessed value for a brand new apartment is initially set at the purchased price of the unit (this is what happened to me on my last two pre-sales I bought). With this in mind, I found the following twho units that are now listed under appraised value. Even more interesting is that the second one has never been lived in on good ol’ Regiment Square meaning that the assessed value is probably what the flipper paid – can you say negative equity???
v724211 assessed:603000, list 599000
v724337 assessed:581000, list 568000
September 3rd, 2008 at 11:08 am
Don’t forget that the US basically avoided the classification of a recession through their ingenious political tactic of rebating 1% GDP back to all Americans which then gave a slight “bump up” in the numbers. The recession clock starts all over and will take 6 straight months of negative output before being declared a recession. Not a bad short-term strategy by the Administration, strictly a political move though.
BOC held interest rates the same today, dollar has shot up as a result. I guess combating inflation isn’t a priority right now, I even heard talk of a rate cut later this year. If that happens it will not make much of a difference to the housing market locally because of afordability, consumer confidence and the removal of 40 year 0 down mortgages which will have more of an impact than any rate cut, IMO.
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 am
There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics (from BCREA).
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 am
Decline in home sales hits economic growth
Slowing British Columbia real estate sales are shaving a slice off a sizable chunk of the provincial economy.
The B.C. Real Estate Association released a report on Tuesday estimating that the 102,000 homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service in 2007 accounted for almost $2 billion in value for the provincial economy, and supported some 28,000 jobs.
Each sale transaction, the report estimated, triggered $27,751 in spending from real-estate commissions, renovations, legal fees, moving costs and taxes.
However, with 2008 real estate sales 24 per cent below 2007 levels, logic suggests the drop in activity is denting that economic impact.
…
The B.C. Real Estate Association for 2007 estimated that every 100 MLS home sales generated $2 million for the economy and supported 28 full-time jobs.
Below figures posted by Inventory on Chipman’s site – we didn’t even crack 1 billion, let alone 2. yikes.
August 2008 REBGV SFH+TH+APT
Gross Sales 897,510,715 (-56%)
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 am
Depends on what you mean be “we”.
Canada as a whole does not have a -8% savings rate and a housing bubble as severe as any US state, or a #1 industry directly tied to US housing.
BC does.
September 3rd, 2008 at 10:11 am
So if the US economy is expanding again, how is it that we think they are in recession? Even Canada is predicted to still grow, albeit at one of the slowest rates. I’m not suggesting that housing prices won’t slump as they have in the US during the growthtimes, but we don’t seem destined for the economic peril that others have suggested, at least not according to this article.