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September 23rd, 2008 at 9:17 pm
People like thumbsucker2 think that this is all a game. It’s just numbers and words. But words are powerful, and life is not a game. Numbers represent real money to real people, most of whom struggle in various ways. So thumbsucker2 or whoever you want to call yourself on a given day, take a good look in the mirror and ask yourself “Is this asshole really me?” Maybe it’s time to change?
September 23rd, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Apocalypse Now?: New world order could have devastating implications for Western nations
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new.....tions.html
September 23rd, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Not specifically related to Vancouver market, but Sydney Australia’s market is almost a mirror image. Would be good if CBC would arrange a similar interview with decent, unbiased profs/experts to educate the public (although way too late) about this coming bust. Link is below:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/count.....369074.htm
September 23rd, 2008 at 8:46 pm
#46 read the date on comment May 20th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
September 23rd, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Hey Thunbs:
What’s up buddy? Someone’s numbers bothering you?
September 23rd, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Thanks ReductiMat. I wrote most of that post, except for the cited quotes and references. I’m surprised nobody is talking about Credit Default Swaps yet.
Not a big deal though. In time, everybody will learn and will be discussing Credit Default Swaps.
September 23rd, 2008 at 7:47 pm
There was a recent case on eminent domain in the US that suggested that the ‘right to property’ codified in the constitution may not offer protections beyond those found in other anglo-american jurisdictions.
Contrary to what a lot of people think, there is no “right to property” in the US Constitution. If you think there is a “right to property”, try growing dope in your back yard and see what happens.
What it actually says is this (Bill of Rights):
“No person shall be… deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation”
Which means that
(1) the government can seize property as punishment for an offense and
(2) the government can take private property for public use provided the owner is paid market value for it.
A recent Supreme Court ruling has said that “public use” means any purpose for which the government sees fit, including giving it to private developers.
In fact the situation in Canada is exactly the same, except that property rights are not defined in the Constitution but in statute law.
September 23rd, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Fantastic post Gadwin. It’s unfortunate that very few people will take the time to understand this.
One other point I think is a major player in all of this is outlined at The Big Picture.
September 23rd, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Sold2Soon Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 9:13 am
Caught some of the exchange on CKNW this morning. “Booster-Bill” (as Warren labels him) begins incredulously: some are saying real-estate prices will go down “even here”… “especially here!” comes back Garth emphatically.
Some amazement on the longetivity of Harper’s government ensues till Bill comes back to comment on how after he built his home some years ago, his builder commented on how much more it would cost to build if he were to start then (prices of building materials have gone up). Garth replies things can change quickly…Rona profits are down 90%, Linen & Things has gone belly up and Home Depot is hurting.
Sadly, at that point my 15 minute commute was up and so was my access to the radio!
September 23rd, 2008 at 5:31 pm
#
54
Thums up2 Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
To The idiot in-charge,
those numbers are not your personal property, you can publish them but if you comment on them that makes you to call some one’s whore you dum head.
“Congratulation North Vancouver Prices are up-some time ago”
To whom the fuck were you telling all that bs?
“Excellent North Vancouver +3%” what the fuck was that?
North Vancouver is 3% down oh now what to do?
Mother fucking Realtors like you and jeff stand for best filthy idiots on earth.Tell us….
What do you tell to your client as buyers?
what do you tell to your clients as sellers?
if you know the answer in your mind, you and jeff should figure out properly who the fuck you are? you fucking filthy idiot.Did you ever talk to your dad Cameron Muir about this I am sure you are registerd with some othername to the board.
September 23rd, 2008 at 4:26 pm
“my understanding is that in Canada no private person actually owns anything, basically. It’s all property of the state. ”
“Think you own that house or condo? Think again, because in Canada, the Crown actually owns all the land. That mortgage you’re paying is just for a leasehold from the Crown.”
Whoa, nelly!
If you own in fee simple, you own. Full stop. The state does not own anything. This is not the USSR. It is not a leasehold. The state cannot arbitrarily take the land back.
There is a difference between ownership and having your own little empire, though. You do have to abide by the laws of the state, still. And there may be laws that permits the state to impair those ownership rights, and do things like trespass or expropriate. However, like Dave said, that is true of all nations — you couldn’t have a functioning state without it (imagine no more roads, or power lines, or the ability of emergency services to access property). However, most legislation in this vein will have checks on the use of this power — limited purposes, consultation, compensation. And this stuff tends to get litigated up the ying-yang. Governments don’t take messing with the underpinnings of economic system lightly (uh, never mind the past week). True, it is not part of the Charter, but that does not mean that property is “owned” by the state. Just that the rights in the Charter don’t protect property rights. Other laws will continue to apply. For example, animal rights aren’t in the Charter either, but that doesn’t mean that you can be cruel to animals — there’s laws against that. There are other legal doctrines that can be used to defend an abuse of the legal power to trespass or expropriate.
If you own, you own. Mkay? You don’t lease, and the Queen ain’t taking it back just to be a bitch. Don’t sweat it until you see the application from BCTC to put a Hydro tower in your backyard.
September 23rd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Suppose that the entire world had another Great Depression. But that’s not possible, is it? Well, suppose it did happen. Do you think Vancouver real estate will only decline by 50% if we had another Great Depression? Probably not. Vancouver real estate will probably decline by 70% or more if the unemployment rate in BC rivaled levels seen in the Great Depression and the BC & Canadian economy grinds to a halt as it did during the Great Depression.
Now how could the global economy rival the Great Depression? In a nutshell, this is what the U.S. Treasury Department, U.S. Federal Reserve, and SEC tried to avoid by bailing out Bear Stearns, AIG, and is now proposing a $700 billion bailout package. Their biggest fear, is the unregulated Credit Default Swap market that has the potential to cause another Great Depression and they are using all their ammo to prevent the “worse case scenario” from happening.
In a nutshell, a Credit Default Swap (CDS) is insurance against a bond or loan. Let’s say you are holding a bond from company XYZ. You are worried about XYZ going bankrupt, and defaulting on its bond payments. Thus, you go to a company, such as AIG, and purchase insurance for the bond, in case that XYZ defaults on its payments – in other words, you’ve obtained a Credit Default Swap from AIG.
Now here is where the problem for Credit Default Swaps has ballooned. Because Credit Default Swaps aren’t regulated, companies like AIG don’t have to back them up with collateral. During the “good times,” this was the perfect way for AIG to make money because they could sell a bunch of Credit Default Swaps, knowing that company XYZ would never go bankrupt. Thus, AIG would continue to collect premiums from you and things are hunky dory. As you can guess, everything goes to h*ll when XYZ indeed goes bankrupt, and now, AIG doesn’t have the collateral to pay your insurance. From your end, not only can you not collect from the XYZ bond because they went bankrupt, you can’t collect the insurance from AIG either because they never had the collateral to back up the Credit Default Swap in the first place. Thus, you may go bankrupt as well!
To add to this, Credit Default Swaps were offered on mortgage backed securities, CDOs, and other mortgage backed debt. That’s great during the housing boom when everybody is making their mortgage payments, but when there is a housing downturn …
To put in perspective of the sh*t hole the financial system is in, the “total outstanding balance of the CDS market is $50 trillion, compared with the entire U.S. home mortgage market at about $11 trillion.”: http://www.moneymorning.com/20.....n-problem/
Because Credit Default Swaps aren’t regulated, financial institutions worldwide have gone and ballooned the CDS market with little or no collateral. As you can guess, if companies like Bear Stearns and AIG, who offered CDS, go bankrupt, it will have a huge domino effect on the remaining financial institutions (AIG had issues paying off its CDS, it tried to collect collateral, rating agencies lowered AIG’s debt rating because of that, and AIG had to obtain more collateral, etc).
And this is the worst case scenario that the U.S. Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, and SEC are trying to avoid.
As for Canadian banks? Unfortunately, they are also exposed to Credit Default Swaps:
“Canadian banks have more than $800-billion in exposure to one of the most closely watched segments of this market — credit default swaps. It is estimated that Royal Bank of Canada has the biggest position — with about $300-billion of notional exposures to this market, an amount many times greater than the entire value of Canada’s largest bank.
Its peers are thought to be similarly positioned, with Toronto-Dominion Bank’s at $197-billion, Bank of Montreal at $118-billion, Bank of Nova Scotia at $110-billion and CIBC at $86-billion.
The banks said yesterday they would not disclose who their counter-parties were on these positions, but with AIG controlling about US$441-billion of this market through its financial products division, analysts said its demise would be laden with material risks.”
http://www.financialpost.com/n.....?id=794968
Hopefully, this doesn’t happen. As I said before, if Vancouver real estate declined 50% but we get out of this financial mess, that is really a best case scenario. Lets hope that the $700 billion bailout by the U.S. works and the CDS crisis doesn’t get any worse.
September 23rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Watching Bernanke and Paulson, made me think of a Ministry song I hadn’t listened to in a while:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dG_-rq1ON9Y
“Hey thanks for nothing!
Morals in the dust
Two-faced bastards and syncophants
No trust”
We Canadians shouldn’t be too smug. Can the same thing happen here?
September 23rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Two words: exprop riation. The needs of the many and all that Vulcan mumbo jumbo.
September 23rd, 2008 at 10:12 am
There’s also a separation of surface and subsurface rights. No landowner automatically has rights to subsurface resources – you must explicitly stake them, or else others will be able to snatch it right from under you, and gain legal access to your land. In BC, staking a claim for mineral or subsurface rights used to have to be done physically, with actual stakes and claim tags. This gave the landholder opportunity to come to an understanding with prospectors, as they would have to physically trespass to stake their claim otherwise.
Recently the BC government changed the staking process so that it could be done 100% online, without even setting foot on the property. This has led to some cases where homeowners get invaded by prospectors and have no real legal recourse.
Moral of the story – stake your own land!
September 23rd, 2008 at 9:11 am
Have to agree with Dave on this one. We inherited a system of land ownership from the UK, enforced (however unfairly) by musket and treaty over the existing aboriginal culture. Fee simple is a type of estate that the Crown can grant to individuals. In the traditional system, fee simple estates were subject to the power of eminent domain.
In that respect, you’d have to look at the empirical evidence to see whether the US offers more protection for property owners vis-a-vis expropriations by the State. There was a recent case on eminent domain in the US that suggested that the ‘right to property’ codified in the constitution may not offer protections beyond those found in other anglo-american jurisdictions. However, I lack any references to studies on the matter.
September 23rd, 2008 at 8:49 am
In contrast, in the US, this is less certain and historic owners may have claims on the ownership of the land.
Ahem. “First Nations”. “Native Land Claims”.
September 23rd, 2008 at 8:44 am
pinocchio123:
We do have a few more restrictions on what you can do with your private property than the US does (no toxic waste disposal next to the kindergarten!), but not to any extreme extent. Land can be expropriated, but with lots of legal protections to the landowner. Overall a pretty fair balance, IMHO. Some consideration to the greater societal good is warranted, just look at some of the messes unfettered freedom can produce. Worldwide financial turmoil, for starters.
The States themselves have some restrictions. Water rights come to mind. That varies state to state for you,as well, doesn’t it?
Much of BC and northern Canada is still “crown land” but that is mostly wilderness.That can be leased, is that what you are thinking of? Roughly equivalent to your national forest land. The settled areas are almost all private ownership. A few pockets of municipal property on longterm leases, mostly various “affordable housing” initiatives.
September 23rd, 2008 at 8:42 am
Yes, technically the Crown owns the land. Ownership is a right to use the land in perpetuity. Yes, you can get expropriated off your land. Such laws exist in pretty much every country. My reference to the US is that our title system terms ownership as absolute and indisputable. In contrast, in the US, this is less certain and historic owners may have claims on the ownership of the land.
Leasehold is basically a long term rental agreement to use land. There isn’t too much of it in BC but it exists at UBC and on the Musqeum lands.
September 23rd, 2008 at 8:02 am
Dave said:
It’s not a leasehold. It’s called a freehold. If you think the Queen is going to come back and take your land, then you are mistaken. The legal ownership of land is Canada has a much higher level of certainty than in the US.
OK, correct me if I’m wrong, but my understanding is that in Canada no private person actually owns anything, basically. It’s all property of the state. Canadian constitution (Charter of Rights and Freedoms) has no provisions for/content about private property.
There were attempts to amend it, apparently in the nineties (?!) but it didn’t happen.
Isn’t it true that you can be expropriated off “your” land at any given time if there is a “higher” reason for it, like an oil reserve under your backyard or a highway to be running through your living room?
Again, please correct me if I’m wrong.
September 23rd, 2008 at 7:35 am
SurreyJoe, that’s a interesting article and they are correct that anecdotes are always skewed to the extreme example.
The last market downturn hardly registered a price decrease for condos. Prices basically plateaued and remained level up to our most recent bull run.
September 23rd, 2008 at 7:29 am
Think you own that house or condo? Think again, because in Canada, the Crown actually owns all the land. That mortgage you’re paying is just for a leasehold from the Crown.
It’s not a leasehold. It’s called a freehold. If you think the Queen is going to come back and take your land, then you are mistaken. The legal ownership of land is Canada has a much higher level of certainty than in the US.
September 23rd, 2008 at 6:55 am
Vancouver Sun article on condo incentives – http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....1bda6a552b – in summary no major price correction occuring in condo markets. Their sources? A consultant to the developers and the developers. Article open for comments.
September 23rd, 2008 at 12:03 am
I have spent a lot of time in the US and it is different here, not necessarilty better or worse, just different. We have different legal and political systems, histories and cultures which are not always apparent to the casual observer and that includes most Canadians.
Our demographics are different with the Canadian baby boom starting later and lasting longer and our birth rate much lower than that of the US. Their medical system is a constant worry, because soon a large part of the US population will be going on Medicare whereas the impact in Canada won’t be as significant because most Canadians are already covered by a public medical system. Their public education system is a mess, but they have almost all of the best universities in the world. Educated Americans are extremely well educated, but the average American isn’t.
Think you own that house or condo? Think again, because in Canada, the Crown actually owns all the land. That mortgage you’re paying is just for a leasehold from the Crown.
I anyone is really interested, good starting reads are books and articles by UBC prof Michael Goldberg and Michael Adam’s Fire and Ice.
as patrioz has pointed out, Conservative policies have been moving Canada closer to the American way of doing things. And this has got me worried. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed on election night as I’m hoping for a minority government too.
September 22nd, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Do you think that the canuck real estate bubble is smaller than the US?
Yes it really is smaller. Only BC has seen the degree of overvaluation found in California, Arizona, Florida, etc. Toronto and Alberta are not as overvalued as New York. Pretty much all of the rest of the country east of the Lakehead, where half the population lives, is reasonably priced.
Here’s what 300K gets you in a good part of Hamilton
September 22nd, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Strataman —-”Power is the new global economy”
No way. The new paradym will be ” the voice and the will of the people” The 330,000,000 people in North America that finally decide they have had it with a few aristrocrats that control all the money and power.
You will see what made this continent great in the first place. It was the people.
I/we will ultimately will vote in “one of the people” not some seasoned or lame politician.
September 22nd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
I have often seen a few canucks on this site and many more on other sites think that “it is different here”
Given the scale of the liquidity bubble (and the impact of the great unwinding) in the world d you really believe that canada can exist as a first-world country without the US buying stuff from canada? think rationally..
Do you think canuck banks have a different asset composition? Many eurotards also have that delusion..
Do you think that the canuck real estate bubble is smaller than the US?
How is the canuck government going to pay all the stuff promised to the retiring baby boomers (pensions+ benefits+ healthcare)?
Have you looked at the demographic profile lately?
The tax base is shrinking (more retirees + poorly paid immigrants)
For all the dishonesty inherent in US governmental statistics, they are quite honest when compared to canucks.
And there is the issue that, unlike the US, a very large percentage of the immigrant population feels discriminated against and hates canucks. Coincidently they + their kids are soon going to be a significant % of your working age population. wanna bet how that will turn out.. Of course, europe has the same problems..
The sad reality is that your future is much bleaker than anything successive republican administrations could ever inflict on the US.
The one big difference between between canucks and americans- lots of educated americans are self-critical, however almost all canucks believe their own delusions..
Hubris usually starts with excessive uncritical belief in yourself and magical thinking- a feature much more common in canucks than americans
September 22nd, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Sheepless, the problem is how much does our economy rely on people spending money on what they don’t really need, especially when its money they don’t have in the first place?
September 22nd, 2008 at 9:11 pm
The economy will be an election issue only if the media and politicians make it so.
Anecdotally, I don’t see too many people concerned yet. I’ve lived through several recessions, a few of which I’ve barely noticed, and now realize that how you view economic downturns depends a lot on your personal situation. Laid off auto workers are going to view the current economic situation differently than those in the public sector. Those in the East will view it differently than those in the West. Commodity prices are going up again as investors run for cover. That should offer a shield against inflation in Canada in the short term. I’m not sure how all this is going to work out in Canada because there’s a dearth of Canadian news.
Our banks will probably do OK through this. One commentator on Bloomberg actually said that the US was probably going to move towards more regulation in the banking system to make US banks more like those in France and Canada.
Investors will suffer everywhere. The average citizen will likely cut back on spending, but from what I see there’s a lot of room for cutting back given all the stuff we spend money on that we don’t really need.
September 22nd, 2008 at 8:55 pm
In their time in office since 2006, the Cons have done their best to ape the wrongheaded policies found south of the border
- introducing 0/40 mortgage insurance, without which our housing bubble probably would have started deflating at the same time as its US counterpart. Conveniently jettisoned before the election.
- luring new buyers into the bear trap by promising a tax credit for first time homebuyers. Appalling.
- cutting consumption tax (GST). Canada’s historically low savings rate today means we need higher, not lower, GST or other consumption tax (e.g. carbon tax).
- greatly reducing the fiscal surplus at a time of low unemployment, overheating the economy and setting it up for a bigger bust. The surplus should be increased during times of low unemployment. The #1 fiscal priority of the government should be to reduce debt as much as possible before the boomers retire.
This is not fiscal conservatism, it is fiscal recklessness.
And yes, the record of the Liberals 1993-2006 was way, way, better.
At this point, a Liberal win seems unlikely, and I would quite content to see another Con minority which can be sent into the dustbin of history a couple years from now when the downside of their policies becomes apparent. Including the possible insolvency of CMHC.
September 22nd, 2008 at 8:30 pm
In other political news, The Political Compass has provided a chart showing where the major Canadian parties are in relation to each other.
http://www.politicalcompass.org/canada2008
September 22nd, 2008 at 8:29 pm
punface, the real power is in the (unelected) Prime Ministers Office. Parliament, whether it’s a minority or majority, is not the government.
Harper can -and has- done a lot with all that arbitrary power as did the Liberal PM’s before him. That is why Gomery recommended strong limits to the power of the PM.
September 22nd, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Ecology is the key issue in every election, as all other issues depend on a viable ecological system.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Green:
- And they’re different from the Liberals how?
The Greens are also into the herbal jazz.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Do you think that any Canadian politician has the ability to improve our economy while our largest trading partner is going through major financial difficulties of its own and facing ongoing fallout from a burst housing bubble?
No.
No matter who forms the next government, the best we can hope for is that they interfere less badly than the others might have, given the chance.
For all the bleating about the failure of the free market, we don’t have one. We have various levels of corporatism, rent seeking, and state intervention. And that’s not likely to change under any of the choices Canadians and U.S. Americans face. Ron Paul had a different message and nobody was listening, unfortunately.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Brittanny “Harper is trying to prematurely buy another 4 years without feeling the heat of his policies for the last 3 years.” Has nothing to do with Harpers policies we are small potatoes, wouldn’t matter who is in power this is the NEW global economy!
Whoever gets in in this election is toast doesn’t matter. The one after this one will be a landslide for who ever is the opposition. Do you honestly think any Canadian politician has independence from the American Market?
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:27 pm
I hope for the status quo – a Conservative minority government unable to accomplish very much.
I prefer that the Conservatives keep the upper hand just so the Liberals are quick to get rid of Dion. Next election I’ll probably prefer a Liberal minority government.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:15 pm
I think Canadians should be voting on “when” the election should take place. I call BS on only 6 weeks heads up. Harper is trying to prematurely buy another 4 years without feeling the heat of his policies for the last 3 years.
If not, I will not spoil my ballot, but I will vote Green Party just to spank that Bush as kisser.
“God bless Canada?” Jesus Christ Harper, gimme a break!
September 22nd, 2008 at 5:52 pm
the cmhc would never need a bailout, it is the “bailer outer”. the canadian central bank is already shovelling a lot of new money through the cmhc and into the bond/credit markets. any cmhc debt can be monetized. not very good for the dollar, but you can bet on every jurisdiction being in a mad scramble to devalue their currency (in lock step with the u.s. buck). already saw a big dose of that today.
September 22nd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
@minotaur3
Won’t most of the pain the banks are feeling in the States be put onto CMHC up here? Perhaps the banks will be okay (well, you can write CIBC off, naturally) but we’ll still be taking it in the brown through a bailout of CMHC?
September 22nd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
>For this, he decided, was definitely the best place on
>earth, and lucifer would be dressed in long johns ere the
>real estate market would falter. (Good thing, since he
>took Rennie up on that presale).
And Rennie bellowed, “The real estate market is local. Prices can only go up!” The elders clapped loudly and whispered the virtues of Vancouver amongst themselves. They knew the lemmings among Vancouver would rush out in their glory, with life savings in pocket, to own a piece of Vancouver, before the land had run out …
September 22nd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Harper has said that Canadian banks won’t need government bailouts. I’m not exactly taking his word for it, so does anyone have a more credible source?
If banks here start needing bailouts soon, the economy will be a major issue… but the elections will probably occur before any real light is shed on the Canadian fallout of the US debacle. Unless there’s evidence to the contrary, that is.
September 22nd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
And so it was that Johnny Canuck looked upon the land of Vancouver, and the construction cranes sprouted as stalks of wheat. And he sighed, and said ‘this is good’.
Not south ran his gaze, to the land of the Greenspan, where the high risk mortgages ran free and unencumbered, and the printing presses rested not even upon the sabbath. Nor for his eyes, the great swarms of foreclosures, or the din of bailouts.
Nay, for he turned his gaze upon the Sun – (the Vancouver Sun, that is) – and saw a vision so profound it blanketed his sight. Great wealth would be his, provided he rendered unto Rennie all that was required to complete a presale agreement on a hextuplet of matching concrete condos with granite countertops, conveniently located in downtown Surrey.
He saw the appreciation in the housing market, and decided it was good. He saw stagnant salaries (in inflation-adjusted terms), and decided to avert his gaze. He heard prophecies of doom, wherein the Drachen spoke of great wailing and gnashing of realtor’s teeth, and decided to plug his ears.
For this, he decided, was definitely the best place on earth, and lucifer would be dressed in long johns ere the real estate market would falter. (Good thing, since he took Rennie up on that presale).
September 22nd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Re: Land Making Machine:
Whoever dreamed up the chestnut about investing in land because “they’re not making more of it” never met a condo developer. The good earth may be finite, but thanks to so-called strata-title legislation—which allows a building to be subdivided into “lots” and sold to individual buyers—there’s seemingly no cap on how many condo units can be built on a single patch of ground.
September 22nd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
The economy will no doubt be an election issue but the true depth and seriousness of the financial crisis will not be felt in Canada until after the election. The “man on the street” side of the financial crisis will be a severe US recession that will lead to recession in Canada and most of the world’s developed economies. It seem to me that many Canadian do not fully appreciate the seriousness of the financial crisis and the very difficult times to come. The bursting of the local housing bubble will be one event of a much larger slowdown.
September 22nd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Dave, call me.
September 22nd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
I don’t think J6P as a group has formed a coherent idea of what the issues are. I don’t think the political parties themselves have formed a coherent idea of what the issues are. Everyone’s still trying to figure it out. J6P doesn’t really have a clue about very much … witness the Calgary and Vancouver RE bubbles. Political leaders don’t have a clue … and that’s become self-evident.
September 22nd, 2008 at 3:12 pm
There’s no doubt the election was called now so that the conservatives won’t have to face the music once the triple recession in housing prices, manufacturing, and commodities takes hold. Once we’re deep into another early-80s style made-in-Canada depression, the guy in power is gonna look like a stooge regardless of his or her policies.
Here’s how I view the parties:
Conservative:
– Too idealistic. The free-market wet dream conveniently leaves out costly externalities.
– Most laissez-faire (even more than Mulroney): if they get a majority, it’s lights-out for Canada’s nanny-stated auto sector. IMHO, this is a good thing.
– Fuck-ups when it comes to social policy. If Harper gets a mandate, look forward to four more years of retarded drug laws, useless “tough on crime” bullshit, and other things to mollify the brain-dead valley preacher in all of us.
Liberals:
– Carbon Tax: Cool, my city lifestyle means I’ll pay less income tax while those fucks in Langley who drive their SUVs to Lions Bay every morning will be punished.
– Pandering: Probably gonna pander to home owners with costly mortgage bail-outs paid for by hard working renters like me.
NDP:
– Hey, why not?
– Four years of pot-legalizing, sentence-reducing, tax-increasing socialism might screw up the local economy, but for those of us who earn their income overseas it will just mean a groovier place to live.
Green:
– And they’re different from the Liberals how?
September 22nd, 2008 at 3:06 pm
What is happening now on Wall Street is probably the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. You know the sh*t has hit the fan when the U.S. Treasury department, Federal Reserve, and SEC are constantly rewriting the rules to avert the ultimate financial catastrophy – a financial meltdown equivalent or worse than the Great Depression. Never imagined the U.S., the world model of captialism, would ever nationalize Freddie, Fannie, AIG, and probably more institutions to come. And now, it seems like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs has the approval from the Fed to become deposit banks, reversing a 75 year law that restricted them as investment banks.
We all know that Vancouver and BC real estate is dropping at the moment – nothing new there. In the longer term though, the financial crisis we’re having can easily drag down Canadian real estate (not just BC real estate) to irrational lower depths, especially if North America spins into a prolonged recession.
They say that markets overshoot on the upside, and also overshoot on the downside. Well, depending on how bad this financial crisis gets, the downside for Canadian real estate will grow if the financial crisis continues to grow.
Stay tuned. There is more to come in the financial crisis yet.
September 22nd, 2008 at 2:45 pm
The economy is the key issue in every election, as all other issues depend on the economy.
The scariest thing is surviving the coming recession which cant be bailed out by rate cuts which growing inflation won’t allow….the perfect storm for a massive housing market crash.