Comments on: Friday Free-for-all! http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=friday-free-for-all-37 Bubble? What Bubble? Thu, 24 May 2012 09:33:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Mr. Market http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26201 Mr. Market Mon, 15 Sep 2008 08:09:31 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26201 Everything in finance is relative to everything else. to say it another way, there is no hitching post in the financial universe. The value of cash relative to stuff will skyrocket and the value of stuff relative to cash will plummet. This will reach rediculous levels before reversing to norma. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26201">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Everything in finance is relative to everything else. to say it another way, there is no hitching post in the financial universe. The value of cash relative to stuff will skyrocket and the value of stuff relative to cash will plummet. This will reach rediculous levels before reversing to norma.

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]]> By: ForeignerX http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26197 ForeignerX Sun, 14 Sep 2008 23:42:52 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26197 When four of the strongest bank in America are on the verge of collapsing: I m shit scared... <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26197">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> When four of the strongest bank in America are on the verge of collapsing: I m shit scared…

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]]> By: John http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26194 John Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:08:49 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26194 As the stock market continues to soar in the US the housing market in Canada will follow. It's evident that rich asians and albertans have sold out of the TSX and will put that money into condos in Vancouver. That's the last safe bastion along with SUVs and boats. I also think that wiskey is a good investment and so I've been building up a stock of single malt. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26194">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> As the stock market continues to soar in the US the housing market in Canada will follow. It's evident that rich asians and albertans have sold out of the TSX and will put that money into condos in Vancouver. That's the last safe bastion along with SUVs and boats. I also think that wiskey is a good investment and so I've been building up a stock of single malt.

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]]> By: Bluesman http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26193 Bluesman Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:08:07 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26193 Thanks, Patriotz. You ROCK, TOO! Excellent explanation. So I don't have to worry about missing the cash bubble now. I can sleep easy tonight. Wish I could say the same for all those who are long in the stock market:) G'night folks, and think of what the employee from Lehman interviewed on CNBC said, hey put it all into perspective, it's not 9/11. We're all alive and well and life will go on. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26193">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Thanks, Patriotz. You ROCK, TOO! Excellent explanation. So I don't have to worry about missing the cash bubble now. I can sleep easy tonight. Wish I could say the same for all those who are long in the stock market:) G'night folks, and think of what the employee from Lehman interviewed on CNBC said, hey put it all into perspective, it's not 9/11. We're all alive and well and life will go on.

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]]> By: patriotz http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26192 patriotz Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:06:45 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26192 <i>Approximately 10.7% of the province’s annual output and more than 10% of the province’s employment is driven by residential construction. This from the provincial government report on the Leaky Condo Crisis I.</i> And note that report is from 10 years ago, during the rule of the evil Glen Clark and the late 90's RE minibust. How much higher do you think that figure is today? <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26192">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Approximately 10.7% of the province’s annual output and more than 10% of the province’s employment is driven by residential construction.

This from the provincial government report on the Leaky Condo Crisis I.

And note that report is from 10 years ago, during the rule of the evil Glen Clark and the late 90's RE minibust. How much higher do you think that figure is today?

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]]> By: patriotz http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26191 patriotz Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:58:41 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26191 <i>So to be a bubble people would have to pay me way more for my cash than they are willing to pay me now. Vancity is only paying 3% or so on term deposits.</i> A term deposit is a bond, not cash. You have an asset bubble when the market price of an asset is more than it is really worth, or in other words when the yield on that asset is too low. So you have a bond bubble when bond prices are too high, i.e. interest rates are too low. If the term deposit rate went up to, say, 10% without a corresponding raise in inflation expectations, that would be a bond antibubble aka bust, not a bubble. You cannot have a bubble in cash because cash has no time value by definition. Nobody is going to pay you $20 for a $10 bill. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26191">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> So to be a bubble people would have to pay me way more for my cash than they are willing to pay me now. Vancity is only paying 3% or so on term deposits.

A term deposit is a bond, not cash. You have an asset bubble when the market price of an asset is more than it is really worth, or in other words when the yield on that asset is too low. So you have a bond bubble when bond prices are too high, i.e. interest rates are too low.

If the term deposit rate went up to, say, 10% without a corresponding raise in inflation expectations, that would be a bond antibubble aka bust, not a bubble.

You cannot have a bubble in cash because cash has no time value by definition. Nobody is going to pay you $20 for a $10 bill.

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]]> By: rentah http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26190 rentah Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:18:32 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26190 Garth: Van Eeden stopped publishing his explorer picks some time earlier this year, then went almost all into bullion, then changed his money supply calculations and calculated that gold was worth $760, all in time for gold to plummet to <$750. Pretty impressive, although the timing was a bit lucky (as I'm sure PvE would agree). He is, however, predicting that the true 'value' of gold will continue to inflate with the money supply, which means about 8-12% pa. Regarding "Do you have any other good places to read?" I use fallstreet.com as a good portal (and a bit of sensible commentary) with a skeptical edge. Also like some of what you find on itulip.com patriotz: agreed, deflation & inflation not mutually exclusive. But it is worthwhile considering the overall effects on liquidity/money supply, esp when deciding on the big investment question: Cash or gold? (or various surrogates of each). <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26190">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Garth: Van Eeden stopped publishing his explorer picks some time earlier this year, then went almost all into bullion, then changed his money supply calculations and calculated that gold was worth $760, all in time for gold to plummet to <$750. Pretty impressive, although the timing was a bit lucky (as I'm sure PvE would agree). He is, however, predicting that the true 'value' of gold will continue to inflate with the money supply, which means about 8-12% pa.

Regarding "Do you have any other good places to read?"

I use fallstreet.com as a good portal (and a bit of sensible commentary) with a skeptical edge.

Also like some of what you find on itulip.com

patriotz: agreed, deflation & inflation not mutually exclusive. But it is worthwhile considering the overall effects on liquidity/money supply, esp when deciding on the big investment question: Cash or gold? (or various surrogates of each).

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]]> By: Still Keeping an eye http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26188 Still Keeping an eye Sun, 14 Sep 2008 19:31:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26188 “Osoyoos realtor Carol Youngberg said the 497 figure does not include units for sale in unfinished buildings such as the Indigo condominium development and the Watermark Beach Resort and that with those units included, the number of available properties in Osoyoos could be close to 700.” Interesting:"the Indigo condominium development" Isn't that the one Bill Good's buddy Neil was pimping on the same radio station? Something to do with last chance, waterfront, best place on earth etc. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26188">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> “Osoyoos realtor Carol Youngberg said the 497 figure does not include units for sale in unfinished buildings such as the Indigo condominium development and the Watermark Beach Resort and that with those units included, the number of available properties in Osoyoos could be close to 700.”

Interesting:"the Indigo condominium development"

Isn't that the one Bill Good's buddy Neil was pimping on the same radio station?

Something to do with last chance, waterfront, best place on earth etc.

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]]> By: Bluesman http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26187 Bluesman Sun, 14 Sep 2008 19:02:18 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26187 squidly77 YOU ROCK, MAN! <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26187">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> squidly77 YOU ROCK, MAN!

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]]> By: Bluesman http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26186 Bluesman Sun, 14 Sep 2008 18:51:31 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/09/friday-free-for-all-37.html#comment-26186 Holy cow, Batman. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-26186">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Holy cow, Batman.

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