282 Responses to “Friday Free For All!”
Pages: « 6 5 4 3 2 [1] Show All
Pages: « 6 5 4 3 2 [1] Show All
Customize your Avatar by registering your account email at gravatar.comWelcome!
VancouverPeak.com- jesse and Makaya are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic Sandbox. in the group Housing Data
- jesse posted an update: CMHC starts, completions and under construction in Vancouver […]
- The Ant started the forum topic BC Population Growth in the group Housing Data
- jesse and The Ant are now friends
- jesse and wreckonomics are now friends
- wreckonomics posted an update: New Year, New HPI. ”Selection Broadens and Demand Eases to […]
- Best place on meth and admin are now friends
- jesse and Best place on meth are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic February 2012 Daily Numbers in the group Housing Data
Wordpress theme by Abhishek Tripathi of Mediawick Digital Solutions
September 19th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
The City of North Van has 45,000 people.
September 19th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
100 people each and every day!
http://www.suntaijiquan.com/Ta.....om_Day.JPG
September 19th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
45,165 for City of North Vancouver
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N.....bia_(city)
September 19th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
hey betamax! so developer want phony data for real moneys? almost as dumb as comment 46! quarter of north van coming here, all going to rent in tv towers! ha ha hey womp! dave say buy next year, so you will buy now? or rent for five year crash! dumbnuts!
September 19th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
Dave,
Actually, the population of North Van is over 120,000…. so that annual increase in population is about a quarter of the population of North Van alone…. you’re a tool.
September 19th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
“Has Schiller ever been to Vancouver? What makes him the authority on our local market as opposed to the local economists ”
He does research that isn’t funded by local developers.
September 19th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
If only there was a “Dave” market where I could listen to whatever Dave recommends and then do the opposite.
Oh wait – there is! It’s called Real Estate… and I am.
September 19th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
“MickeyFinn, you should also consider the rate that the Lower Mainland population is growing, which is about 37,500 per year.
In just three years, that adds up to the entire population of Port Moody, North Vancouver and Mission combined. That’s a lot of real estate!!!”
And they’ll all be rich asians in search of the best cafes downtown!!!! woo hoo!!!!
September 19th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Dave “as opposed to the local economists who have followed and lived in our market for years?” Which to me means they know next to nothing if like shiller they had made pronouncements on the American Market and been even a bit right might make some differance. Local “experts” are probably the stupidist people on earth…in case you don’t know it Dave! nothing in this world is local ABSOLUTELY nothing. Rule of thumb (heh heh thunbs up) if it’s a LOCAL expert then you know the person is ignorant…if it’s a local expert that is well known in far flung countries then pause to consider their opinion. If they are not easily IDENTIFIABLE like Shiller example LA TIMES quotes well known economist from Sauder UBC as to market then just shut up and admit the LOCAL experts are also very loco!
September 19th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Its funny that dave totally disregards people that dont agree with him. To be a good investor you need to consider both points of view but also ask why they are proposing that point of view. There is a simple perspecive that everyone has motivation for any action.
So if you take american news as an example. The news has a local vested interest to report crap to the people where as say overseas organizations may have the opposite. A similar reasoning can be applied to your local eonomists. Especially because local economists are typically polically motivated.
As this whole thing worsens the media (and dave
lol) will continue to “revise” there negative predictions.
September 19th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Dave, with all due respect, I think the fact that Schiller hasn’t been drinking the Koolaid in Vancouver makes his assessments of our economy based on facts and critical thinking, rather than hype, drugs, and wishful thinking.
September 19th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Has Schiller ever been to Vancouver? What makes him the authority on our local market as opposed to the local economists who have followed and lived in our market for years?
September 19th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
The bubble is building in “glamour cities and glamour vacation areas” in the United States and Canada. Ominously, Prof. Shiller says that “Vancouver is the most bubbly city in the world.” He says that city has a history of volatile housing prices but he doesn’t see the same level of bubbliness in the rest of the country’s housing market.
September 19th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Browntown are you buying at todays prices or are you going to wait for the prices to drop 50%?
September 19th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Dave,
If you’re going to listen to an economist, why not listen to someone who has actually been correct about the dot-com and RE bubbles? Robert Shiller called both correctly, and says that “Vancouver is the most bubbly city in the world.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....ry=shiller
September 19th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
hey slappys! browntown see a lot of construction but no land making machine! when housing only can build up, the bottom is in! call maggie today she likes nuts!
September 19th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Dave are you buying any units at tapestry?
No Dave is heavily invested in
“W” An intellectual property
you know be bold or move to the burbs…..
with a soft landing and plateauing prices
it is all good!
September 19th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Dave are you buying any units at tapestry?
September 19th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Well said Mickeyfinn.
Why pay $489,000 when it can be rented for $1550, not only do you save $2,000 per month you avoid a $250,000 haircut.
Also since that building is so heavily speculator owned you have to wonder if the maintenance will be performed, if it isn’t the new home warranty is void!
September 19th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Right Dave, and before you know it there will be nothing but buildings where there were trees, river, salmon, bears etc. We will still have the rain though…making it the sh*tiest place on earth.
September 19th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Did anyone else read this at Maggie’s site? Interesting…
“Most expensive False Creek North condo is the Penthouse at 1000 Beach, now down to $14,800,000 from $18,200,000. Least expensive $334,500 for a 530 sq-ft l bedroom. Too many list price reductions to count!”
September 19th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
I may be drinking my own bath water here (because I am hoping to buy a home in Vancouver after the melt-down) but in addition to what appears to be a freight-train of supply barreling down the tracks at the hapless Vancouver condo speculators, I am convinced that the residential real estate pricing model in Vancouver is out of sync with reality.
This is anecdotal, but I was recently looking at condos in The Tapestry complex on 12th and Heather in Vancouver. It’s a nice looking building with a great location and the suites have a style reminiscient of mid-century modern. The project completed in February and when I was looking in July there were still tons of units being rented by the speculators that had bought them (and who had taken possession like five months earlier). What was immediately apparent was the fact that the rents did not justify the price of the units. The implied returns suggest that the only justification for owning one – as an investor – is the promise of future capital appreciation. But capital appreciation does not seem to be in the cards. Therefore, it seems to me that the prices have to drop and substantially so in order for the economics to make sense.
It also seems to me that capital is free to move around the globe pretty easily these days. So why invest in a condo in Vancouver with a cap-rate of like “2″ when you could invest elsewhere in Canada, or the U.S. or anywhere else for that matter and make a significantly greater return.
From my own personal experience, anytime people start reciting a mantra of reasons as to why basic economic principles – such as the need to earn an appropriate risk adjusted return – no longer apply it is time to head for the exit.
As more and more investors recognize that they should be hitting the exit attempt to do so then the fun will start. People get just as pessimistic on the way down as they get optimistic on the way up. You’ve heard of irrational exuberance… well, I am looking forward to irrational despondence.
September 19th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Dave,
I don’t know what you are on, but i would like double of that, probably make my dreams sweater and the reality lighter. Maybe the same stuff you’re smoking can be used to buy the 8 houses in one block on the street i am currently renting. I don’t know about the UBC experts you are quoting but one thing for sure is that the school in BC is not that good as the locals believe. You get your own conclusion, but ir won’t be a mild correction. 30% down will look like a breeze 3 years from now, when the bottom will be at aroun 50%
September 19th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
MickeyFinn, you should also consider the rate that the Lower Mainland population is growing, which is about 37,500 per year.
In just three years, that adds up to the entire population of Port Moody, North Vancouver and Mission combined. That’s a lot of real estate!!!
September 19th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Dave and John are just jokers guys, relax
September 19th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
MickeyFinn, I agree with you in that markets tend to overproduce at times of rising prices. I also agree that housing construction will likely drop off. The only question in my mind is to what extent. The supply of new homes on the market is still low relative to levels experienced in the past. Developers will respond to lower prices by delaying developments while they get their costs under control. Some of the newer small players will likely leave the industry as they only survived via rising prices. The long term developers know how to make money in a flat market and will continue to build. That much, I can guarantee you.
The list of major projects is not limited to residential housing construction. It covers all types of projects including industrial, commercial, institutional and government. Have a look at it yourself. It also only includes projects over $15 million, which ignores a huge portion of the construction market (e.g. your plumber).
September 19th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
It is amusing that Dave uses the following quote in support of his argument that the housing market is not tanking:
“The total value of major projects on the books in BC has NEVER been higher. In fact, it continued to grow in the last quarter.”
In my thinking, that very fact is the single biggest reason why the real estate market in Vancouver is going to collapse so sweetly into its own black hole like a certain 150-year-old Wall Street investment bank.
For about the past five years there has been a mania of contruction in the Lower Mainland which has resulted in our current bubble. Included in the past five years sales has been a certain degree of speculation. Adding thousands of additional housing units onto the pile over the next couple of years sounds to me like a recipe for a collapse in prices.
In the Southern US the oversupply of houses was driven by financially unrealistic credit practices. Here in Vancouver the oversupply looks like it will come from the success of past speculation and the fact that developers working individually in the pursuit of profits will collectively oversupply the market.
September 19th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Anon… A recent study completed by housing experts at UBC put Vancouver prices at about 10% above fundamental valuation levels. Prices are moving down at a rate of about 1% per month. If we assume prices bottom out at this fundamental valuation and the rate of decline stays constant, then yes, we can expect prices to bottom out next year. This expectation is also consistent with other housing economist predictions.
But, nominal declines need not fall that amount as inflation can increase fundamental values over time. If we assumed 2% inflation per year, then nominal prices could remain at current levels and fundamental values would naturally catch up.
Mr. Market… The law of supply and demand will tell you that lower prices result in lower supply (i.e. less people selling) and lower prices stimulate higher demand (i.e. more people wanting to buy). Thus, the current price declines naturally change the dynamics of supply and demand. No other factors need to be changed. If you look at past housing cycles, you will see that bull markets add growth over a period of 6 to 7 years, are followed by relatively fast (12 to 18 month) corrections and finally by flat markets (~5 years). We are about 5 months into this correction. Thus, the expectation of level prices next year is reasonable when compared to past trends.
September 19th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
The housing market is not ‘tanking’. It is undergoing a mild correction and will likely level off sometime next year.
mild being no more than 5%+/- off peak prices (April 2008)
otoh Sept 08 “correction” may be -5% YOY
all by itself….
whistling past the graveyard Dave…..
September 19th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
What the heck are you even talking about Dave? “need to consider the aging demographics of the construction industry”?? “even if projects don’t go ahead it’s still a lot of work on the books”?
Great! I just shored up the economy by booking 16 condo buildings to be built on my block. Magic!
September 19th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Man I wish there was a way I could make money of people like Dave’s mistakes….
September 19th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
“The housing market is not ‘tanking’. It is undergoing a mild correction and will likely level off sometime next year.”
How will it “level off”? Which of the causes of the current price declines will vanish “sometime next year”?
You sound like hot air to me.
September 19th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
so I guess your bet is that sometime next year, prices will be in line with fundamentals? (ie: historic income/price, rent/price ratios?) If so, that would probably constitute a good ‘tanking’ in my book.
I say throw on more residential construction projects in the lower mainland. More condos. More homes. More townhouses. That pesky law of supply and demand will kick in at some point.
September 19th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
I would say “the economy will weaken because the housing market is tanking”.
The housing market is not ‘tanking’. It is undergoing a mild correction and will likely level off sometime next year.
The total value of major projects on the books in BC has NEVER been higher. In fact, it continued to grow in the last quarter. Even if some of those projects don’t go ahead, it is still a lot of work on the books. You also need to consider the aging demographics of the construction industry. Unemployment rates in construction can remain stable even in the face of decreasing total employment.
September 19th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
California’s unemployment rate 1 year ago was 5.5%. Today, mainly because of the housing crash, it is 7.7%!!! I remember a year or two ago calculating that the decrease in unemployment in Vancouver since 2001 was almost entirely due to construction.
To all the bulls who say “prices can’t go down because the economy is strong”, I would say “the economy will weaken because the housing market is tanking”.
http://wwwedd.cahwnet.gov/Abou.....200809.pdf
September 19th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
YLTNBoomerang… I guess the realtor’s time is more valuable than yours.
September 19th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Realtards totally hate it when people do that so I’d say it’s a good plan.
September 19th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
So where did that Tool Jay Banks go?
Speaking of wasting someones time by requesting showings.
Who better deserves it than some ignorant and arrogant tool who taunted the bears weeks before the market started tanking as bad as the rest of the bubbliest cities in the world?
September 19th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Ah hah!
I posted a couple weeks about some odd price raising in a couple townhouses, in particular, v710116 (now v732147). This dog started at 635,000 then went through multiple small price drops to 594,900 in August before re-listing in September at 659,900. I called WTF and speculated that they were prepping for another drop but wanted it to look bigger… wait for it… tada! Now listed at 549,000.
Nice job trying to fake a 65,000 price drop John Samus (the agent)http://www.johnsamus.com/ I particularly like his line “You never get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate… do not wait to buy. buy then wait”
I’m thinking of setting up a viewing for the place, make him think I’m really serious, eat up a bunch of his time, get the owners antsy, see if he’ll reveal the pricing history, if not, I’ll “discover” it myself and tell him what he can do with his tactics…
September 19th, 2008 at 11:15 am
from (un)real estate’s blog:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....hColumbia/
September 19th, 2008 at 11:14 am
no bailout for canadian banks:harper
Farham, Que. — Stephen Harper is urging Canadians not to panic in the face of the U.S. financial crisis and continue spending on consumer goods to keep the economy humming.
“Canadian consumer spending has been a rock that has sustained this economy and we anticipate that this will continue,”
see… bears have it all wrong… all that saving is not going to help… he says we should be spending more … pardon me while i gag
September 19th, 2008 at 8:34 am
from maggie chandler:
http://tinyurl.com/5djfjn
Many people who have below a 620 beacon score, may have challenges finding mortgage financing in the near future. After Oct 15, at least one applicant on a high ratio mortgage application MUST have a minimum 620 beacon score at all insured lenders.
the next leg down!
September 19th, 2008 at 8:28 am
You can’t even call bullshit by shorting financials thanks to the SEC. This is going to drag on for a decade if they keep trying to maintain the fiction.
September 19th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Come on, thums, you’re not even trying any more.
September 19th, 2008 at 8:10 am
RECORD BREAKING FALL OF LISTING
New MLS residential listings in August fell 22 per cent from July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the second largest month-over-month decline in 25 years.
RECORD BREAKING FALL IN UNEMPLOYEEMENT RATE
It doesn’t matter what political parties you belongs to but you can not ignore this single fact that unemployement rates are 33 year low.
RECORD BREAKING LOW INTEREST RATES
Very simple to say interest rates are low
ROCK SOLID REAL ESTATE PERFORMANCE(VANCOUVER)
As seen on tv news papers etc global economy collapse same time there was and there is one and only option and that is vancouver real estate vritually poised to stand tough even in economy or real estate down turn.
SOLUTION AND RESULT FOR VANCOUVER
“THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH”.-rentsareupandcoming
September 19th, 2008 at 8:00 am
“Capital must protect itself in every possible manner by combination and legislation. Debts must be collected, bonds and mortgages must be foreclosed as rapidly as possible. When, through a process of law, the common people lose their homes they will become more docile and more easily governed through the influence of the strong arm of government, applied by a central power of wealth under control of leading financiers. This truth is well known among our principal men now engaged in forming an imperialism of Capital to govern the world. By dividing the voters through the political party system, we can get them to expend their energies in fighting over questions of no importance. Thus by discreet action we can secure for ourselves what has been so well planned and so successfully accomplished.”- USA Banker’s Magazine, August 25 1924
September 19th, 2008 at 8:00 am
Wow, the US has gone for the mother of all bailouts. An open cheque to the banks who are losing on housing, the price tag could be hundreds of billions up to “unlimited”.
Could a scenario like that unfold in Canada? How would you feel about paying income tax if you knew it was going towards the banks who were willing players in the housing bubble?
September 19th, 2008 at 7:57 am
I’m in awe of the mess in the stock market and the reactions that are taking place. Van real estate is too slow, for entertainment the stock market is “where the action is”. Late night emergency meetings or banning short selling oh man it’s got it all. What happens next, who knows?
September 19th, 2008 at 6:40 am
He can’t even get his facts straight – he claims there were no nominal declines from 1994 to 2001, when the data at his own business school clearly shows otherwise.
If he said 1993 instead of 1994, his statement would have been correct.
September 19th, 2008 at 3:12 am
http://thetyee.ca/News/2007/07/09/BubblePop/
This article is worth reading a year later. See Somerville make a complete jackass of himself. He can’t even get his facts straight – he claims there were no nominal declines from 1994 to 2001, when the data at his own business school clearly shows otherwise.
But while Somerville expects to see a lower rate of price increase, he says, “Nobody credible has predicted a price decline.”
“This is the biggest national bubble that the US has seen in over a century.” This is “not a sustainable situation,” claimed Shiller. Then he directed his attention to Vancouver. The bubble was especially extended in “glamour cities and glamour vacation areas,” he warned, and “Vancouver is the most bubbly city in the world.” – April 26,2005.
Instead, prices could become “sticky.” “People are reluctant to lower prices, so instead, they just let them sit.”
What a strategy! Just don’t drop your price and the market won’t fall! How come nobody tried that south of the border?
And scroll down and read the brilliant rebuttals by working slog and incredulous.