282 Responses to “Friday Free For All!”
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September 20th, 2008 at 11:39 am
Simple question for Dave:
If population and first-time homebuyers and rich asians are INCREASING then why did sales for 2008 DECREASE to half of sales for 2007?
September 20th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Crabman, that’s a good start at getting a baseline for sales. But you can’t ignore the volume of first time home buyers and people moving up in the market. That adds up to a pretty large number!
September 20th, 2008 at 11:25 am
London real estate is tanking.
Other European centers – notably all of Spain – are also experiencing dramatic declines in real estate.
US residential real estate continues to fall unabated.
Real prices are softening in virtually all of Canada.
Yet, Vancouver still has prices that are out of line with rents and I would argue which are also out of line with affordability.
Why would anyone believe therefore that the Vancouver market is not about to drop?
I would suggest that those who disagree with the above logic are over-invested in Vancouver real estate and are hoping that by saying out loud that Vancouver is “different” that somehow local prices will stay aloft.
Yes, there are lots of people who move to BC and they need housing… but that does not mean that they have the financial wherewithal to pay for over-priced real estate. Nor does it mean that rents have to rise. If rents rise, people will move to locations where the cost of living is more acceptable.
Vancouver real estate prices got out-of-whack with reality. They are now in the process of falling. My prediction is that they will fall hard and fast. It may take until the fall of 2009 but it will be worth the wait.
September 20th, 2008 at 11:22 am
If you look at persons/unit in Vancouver it is around 2.1 IIRC. So if you have 38,000 new residents per year, you would need about 18,000 new housing units per year. Throw in a few thousand vacation homes and I would say 23k/year sales would be normal, and the recent 38k/year is wild speculation and excess supply.
September 20th, 2008 at 10:42 am
“Shot down? Hardly. I called BS on the ‘typical’ comment and backed it up with real world data.”
unfortunately for you your own data bit you in the butt.
come on, even your “experts” have been saying the past few years were not “typical” and we are now returning to “normal”. I know it’s hard to keep your stories straight when facts complicate things, but this is too funny.
September 20th, 2008 at 10:40 am
bdk,
after 1.5 year of defeat you are still trolling for response,Go ask that dum head to deliver a message out of his garbage
September 20th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Shot down? Hardly. I called BS on the ‘typical’ comment and backed it up with real world data. Only one year had less than 20,000 sales, which was the suggested ‘typical year’. The real estate cycle is 13 years and the average level of sales is 30k. If you want to try and put a number on ‘typical’, then that’s as good as it gets.
September 20th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Bluesman, very nice job. You even managed to get Dave to provide your numbers for you. Very cool.
September 20th, 2008 at 10:06 am
“thums up is an idiot” Dawood Ibrahim
September 20th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Look here for starts/completions/under construction. As of May 2008 there were more than 26,000 units under construction and 20,000 starts. Add to the mix new listings by the general public and 2009 is going to be a wild ride. Hang on to your hats, folks!
http://langley-financial-plann.....r-cma.html
September 20th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Dave why are you here?
You get shot down 100% of the time, no one is buying your crap and you look like a fool.
Do you really think you can fool anyone here, with the exception of the troll, thums?
You’re in good company
Dave the troll (and his stupid wife) and thums and his many personalities are single handedly going to buy all 21,000 units available now and the next 10,000 that are going to hit the market just in time because there are a bunch of fools planning to sell to rich asians before and after the Olympics which’ll coincide nicely with the evaporation of construction jobs.
But don’t worry those out of work construction workers will pay $20,000 a month to rent studios downtown even though they aren’t working because this is the best place on earth.
September 20th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Bluesman,
you are such an idiots after bundel of your post you did not delever the message because you are not sure what to make out of your gibberish,do you have guts to say that prices will fall because of slow sales say it then you will get punch on your idiotical head,not before that dum head.
September 20th, 2008 at 9:42 am
That last one was me.
So yes. There are 21,000 units of inventory. In 2008 there will have been about 22,000 sales. Add the new inventory of say 20,000 and you have an inventory of 41,000 in 2009 and sales of ?????
September 20th, 2008 at 9:32 am
MickeyFinn: The numbers are for all residential sales. LOOK OUT BELOW!
September 20th, 2008 at 9:31 am
MickeyFinn:
When the number of GV residential sales goes from 38,900 in 2007 to almost HALF (22,000) in 2008 I would definitely say THE MUSIC HAS STOPPED. Just don’t be the one left without a chair or you will fall on your a**.
September 20th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Bluesman, are those the stats for “new home” sales or just “all sales” because I thought I saw somewhere that completions of new home in the REBGV for 2009 and are forecast at 33,000 units with a similar number forecast for 2010?
If there is that much new product coming on-top of the existing inventory then this is gonna be fun to watch.
September 20th, 2008 at 9:24 am
The US housing boom crashed because it was driven by unsustainable financial conditions and expectations.
The unreal “condition” was inappropriate lending practices. Easy money that fueled irrational buying decisions.
The unreal “expectation” was that price escalation would go on forever… even when it bore no connection to the basic principles of economics.
It could be argued that the Vancouver market run-up of the past five or six years has also been based on unsustainable conditions and expectations.
First, a surprisingly large amount of the sales of new condos/townhomes over the past many years has been to off-shore investors and local speculators. That is likely unsustainable as there appears to now be a sudden cooling of demand from speculators. The hype of waiting in a line-up overnight to grab a couple units in the next great money printing real estate machine known as a “condo development” seems so long gone now.
Second, the unsustainable expectation was that prices could just keep going up. And, if prices cannot keep going up then it is economic suicide to invest in Vancouver real estate when rents and base prices are out-of-sync the way they are. What kind of rental return would an investor require if the rent also has to compensate for falling base prices?
In the U.S. South there are a lot of businesses that used to depend on the growth in housing which are now hurting real bad. The contraction in the U.S. new housing market has itself caused part of the further contraction.
It seems to me that we will likely witness a similar thing here in Vancouver. The slow-down won’t be evident for awhile yet though as all of the developers race to complete projects which they have started and which they will be desperate to complete as fast as possible… so that they can off-load the units before the crash. Methinks it’s already too late though as the music has stopped.
September 20th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Could someone please make a visual bar chart of the following and post a link to it? Thanks
Residential Home Sales of Greater Vancouver:
Pre-Easy Credit (typical sales):
1995 – 22,900
1996 – 28,500
1997 – 26,900
1998 – 19,600
1999 – 22,900
2000 – 21,200
2001 – 28,100
Median (22,900)
During-Easy Credit (atypical sales):
2001 – 28,100
2002 – 34,900
2003 – 39,000
2004 – 37,900
2005 – 42,200
2006 – 36,500
2007 – 38,900
Median (37,900)
Post-Easy Credit (typical sales):
2008 – 22,000
Will 2009 show higher or looooooower sales than 2008?
September 20th, 2008 at 9:03 am
“Because:
Unlike them, he understands basics such as price/rent price/income. Second, unlike other local experts, he is not directly tied to the real estate industry and can call it as he sees it.”
But it did not show up in the stat this shiller topic is boring anon it’s been processed without loss.professor called vancouver bubbliest city in 2005 and this is end of 2008 buddy.Do you know the difference between average price compare to 2005,please do the math and tell the result to shiller and vhb.
Bluesman,
What fact?are you kid or something?do you think posters over here are idiots that they don’t know how much sales have been processed through mls?
September 20th, 2008 at 8:04 am
How Credit Got So Easy
And Why It’s Tightening
“When a technology stock and investment plunge and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks pushed the economy into recession in 2001, the Fed slashed interest rates.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/.....89581.html
September 20th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Dave says:
DonkeyXote, here is the reference:
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/Unso … couver.pdf
That graph of inventory is only up to 2006.
I don’t think you’re taking this discussion very seriously. Sad, because you could probably make a much more useful contribution.
September 20th, 2008 at 7:48 am
Thank you, Dave! You have provided evidence that median Greater Vancouver Residential sales from 1995-2001 were 22.9K per year and median sales jumped to 37.9K during the BOOM (easy credit) years of 2001-2007.
2008 sales are down to 22,000 again (See PaulB’s site). Can anyone say BOOM BUST?
So, there you have it folks. The facts are right there in front of you. Do you think the BOOM will continue? Do you think a BUST will follow the BOOM?
As the population of Greater Vancouver increases do you think that the number of houses for SALE will also increase maintaining the sell/list ratios in future years?
Hey, I’m just a Bluesman and even I can figure it out. What about you? Are you going to base your financial future on the snowjobs or the facts?
September 20th, 2008 at 7:31 am
Patiently Waiting: I don’t think you need to worry — what are the chances that the bulldozer will actually show up for the “date”?
September 20th, 2008 at 7:29 am
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/d.....ut/mls.pdf
September 20th, 2008 at 7:23 am
Link?
September 20th, 2008 at 7:15 am
The average of the last 13 years is 31,000. I think that qualifies as a better fit for ‘typical’ than your methodology does. Not only that, our population has been steadily growing so ‘typical’ for the next 13 years will be higher than the last 13.
September 20th, 2008 at 7:10 am
Bluesman,
Another well built 60 year-old house that has a date with the bulldozer. Very sad. What replaces it will not be built with the same quality wood and workmanship.
September 20th, 2008 at 7:06 am
2002-2007 were NOT typical years, Dave.
Snowjob, anyone?
September 20th, 2008 at 7:00 am
I see. You didn’t mean to use the word ‘typically’. Levels above 30 – 35k are more likely ‘typical’.
September 20th, 2008 at 6:59 am
For any new people who read about this (Pope’s) site in the Georgia Straight you must visit PaulB’s website where he reports the actual stats for Sales, Listings, Avg. and Benchmark prices, etc. for Greater Vancouver and North Vancouver.
Here is his site. Just follow the link below. Do not let people like Dave and other realtors give you a snowjob, folks. In other words, DO NOT BE CAUGHT WITH YOUR PANTS DOWN! As Warren Buffet says, when the tide goes out we’ll see Dave is swimming naked
hee hee hee
http://www.northshorepropertie.....aPageId=10
September 20th, 2008 at 6:51 am
I took the 20,000 sales number from PaulB’s site. Just add up the SFH, Attached, and Condos for 2008 to date and you will find that 19,000 sales have taken place so far to August. The sales for Sept-Dec. for 2007 were approx. 7,000, so take half of that and you will find the total for 2008 will be approx. 20-22,000 odd sales.
Also, if you look at PaulB’s charts of Months of Inventory, you will find that there are is a minimum of 10 months of inventory for Greater Vancouver areas, and if you take the total inventory for Greater Vancouver now, which is almost 21,000 you will find that comes to 20-22,000 units sold for the whole year of 2008.
So I maintain that yearly sales for 2008 will be no more than 22,000 units for PaulB’s area which is based on reports by the REBGV.
September 20th, 2008 at 6:24 am
Bluesman, where do you get your 20k number? Since 2002, sales in GVRD have been above 35,000 units.
September 20th, 2008 at 6:16 am
DonkeyXote, here is the reference:
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/.....couver.pdf
September 20th, 2008 at 6:04 am
Correction: the house referred to in my previous posts is on OAK St. and 57th.
September 20th, 2008 at 5:51 am
This is the house I was referring to in my previous post. I see it is still on MLS even though the “For sale” sign on the lawn has been replaced by a “For rent” sign.
http://www.realtor.ca/property.....Id=7416798
September 20th, 2008 at 5:45 am
Yesterday I phoned a man who is trying to rent a house near 57th and Granville that he bought this year. The house had been for sale last year and finally sold in the spring of ’08. Then it sat for several months with the dandilions growing up on the lawn. Soon a “For sale” sign went up a few months ago. Now there is a “For Rent” sign.
So I asked the guy if he was wanting to lease it or rent it out month to month. He said month to month because he might be building a new house there. SO I asked him why he is waiting. He said because he can’t build now because he is afraid that the new house might not sell so he might build in the Spring. He said that is when the Bank of Canada will be setting the interest rates and if they go down he will build. OK.
Then I asked him if he actually thinks the market will pick up in the Spring. He said there are only 20,000 new units being built in Vancouver and there are 38,000 people who immigrate here and yes, he thinks the market will go up for that reason.
I informed him that there are almost 21,000 listings already on the market and 20,000 will be added within the next year or so and 20,000 not 38,000 are typically sold per year.
He started to cough and choke. It was sad. He said his wife is a realtor in Surrey. I asked so M. W. (the realtor who sold him the house) is your wife? No, she is a friend, he replied.
Some “friend”.
September 20th, 2008 at 1:10 am
With most of people living in vancouver having come from third world countries having seen nothing better and the remaining having never travelled beyond Hope, there is no wonder you guys keep calling vancouver the best place on the earth. Eventually if you repeat smth long enough you will convince yourself that it is true.
September 19th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
It’s all fine and well for us to consider who is or who isn’t an authority when it comes to predicting where the real estate market is heading. But expert opinions aside, there is an unpredictable factor which has a huge effect on real estate prices and that issue is “sentiment.” Just like in the stock market it is critical to understand the overall market sentiment. Sometimes market sentiment can confound expert predictions.
It’s hard to deny that the current sentiment in Vancouver’s real estate market is bearish. That sentiment is exemplified by the fact that Vancouver’s real estate buyers appear to have gone on strike. Simply put, nobody is buying.
Guess what happens when the buyers go on strike? The market starts to fall. It’s gradual at first but eventually sellers realize that if they actually want to sell their property they need to lower the price.
That is what we were seeing back in May and June as listings rose to multi-year highs and sales declined by the week. The market sentiment had changed. Now we are seeing price reductions all across the board and yet the buyers are still on strike.
This is just speculation on my part but I think that the buyers collectively “smell blood.” In the stock market there is a saying which goes something like, “don’t try to catch a falling knife.” In other words, if you see that the market is in decline don’t be hasty in your decision to buy just because the price has fallen… because, it may continue to fall a lot further. Better to wait until it has made a bottom and/or is on the way back up.
On a gut instinct basis, I sense that the buyers will remain “on strike” and prices will continue to drop… the falling prices will in-turn create a self-fulfilling prophecy as the buyers realize that the longer they wait the further the market will fall. Likewise, sellers will feel an urgency to sell as they see their equity disappearing the longer they wait.
I’ve been tracking the total listings of single family homes on Vancouver’s west side for th past number of months and they are climbing again right now. As of tonight, there are 988 sfh listings on Vancouver’s west side… and I believe there were 48 sales in August. Looks to me like the buyers are on strike and the vendors are going to have a long wait to sell their properties.
September 19th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Sorry, that last one was mine.
And the first part should read:
The “expert” is the same guy that didn’t get his facts straight in Patriotz’s first post, Tsur Sommerville.
September 19th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Anon… A recent study completed by housing experts at UBC put Vancouver prices at about 10% above fundamental valuation levels.
The “expert” is the same guy that didn’t get his facts straight in Sommerville’s quote. Second, the study used some interesting methodology by assuming that past appreciation will continue into the future.
You also need to consider the aging demographics of the construction industry.
Do you have stats on construction worker demographics, or are you making this up? You seriously think that the consequences of a SHARP reduction in building will be mitigation by natural attrition?
Has Schiller ever been to Vancouver?
Yes, he was in Vancouver when he made the statement. It was a bit of an off the cuff remark, however.
What makes him the authority on our local market as opposed to the local economists who have followed and lived in our market for years?
Because:
Unlike them, he understands basics such as price/rent price/income. Second, unlike other local experts, he is not directly tied to the real estate industry and can call it as he sees it.
September 19th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
I predicted market would crash by 70% I think my wife will be more angry with me. I like cartoons.
September 19th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
“Dave Says:
September 19th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Has Schiller ever been to Vancouver? What makes him the authority on our local market as opposed to the local economists who have followed and lived in our market for years?”
Why don’t you go fuck yourself?Or let the realtors fuck you?
You whore!
September 19th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
So, here’s a list of Dave’s predictions:
1) Prices will not fall until after summer.
Wrong.
2) Prices will not fall more than 5%
Already past 5%
3) Inventory will peak in summer.
Still going up!
4) Inventory at the end of september will be lower than in mid June (19,500 or something like that).
20,578 and rising, we’d need to lose a huge amount of listings at the end of the month for him to be even close.
So Dave, you’re quite the authority on the subject aren’t you? Why should we listen to the head of the Yale economics department and the top bubble economist in the world when we’ve got Dave?
September 19th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
“Can you provide a reference pls?”
Dave doesn’t need references, he just goes with his gut. Truthiness is his thing.
September 19th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Sure scooter there you go http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=0HOsYThzR08
September 19th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Hey Thums up 2,
Care to supply a picture?
I’m really curious just how ugly you are…
September 19th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Dave: “The supply of new homes on the market is still low relative to levels experienced in the past.”
Can you provide a reference pls?
September 19th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
Actually folks I’ve been having you on for the last three years.
I am not a retarded warehouse worker who bought three properties I am just a bored 19 year old female and I am so ugly I can’t get a date so I troll with the 4chan crew.
what’s 4chan? well we go to websites and ask or say really dumb things to inflame the blowhards in the group.
I know the market is overvalued byt a ratio of three to one, do you really think I’m so dumb and would consider homeless people to raise my children? It’s true I have sex with homeless men but that is because I am so ugly I cannot do any better, hey you have to admit that the part about thinking that we were running out of land was good wasn’t it?? I saw that in a newspaper clipping from the last bubble in 1981.
September 19th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
“Vancouver is the most bubbly city in the world.”-
38Anonymous,
He is not saying it anymore because we don’t make it anymore in vancouver,stop calling shiller for help,he is stuned by threats,Charlie,Katrina,and now IKE jolt him big time.
$6 billion storm? Ike delivers economic punch the bang hit *Lehman* we don’t make disasters in Vancouver that’s how professor learn’t his lesson.
22 oziijjiizo,
there was almost 18% month over month drop In port moddy area because of extreme acceleration upward in the past but over all gvrd specially vancouver droping nothing except listings.
Crabman,
If you need a job go anywhere you will find this notice everywhere,help wanted,now hiring,boom is over still hiring?why?.and most of those notices are not for construction industries isn’t it funny,Crabman?
September 19th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
“The City of North Van has 45,000 people.”
and the district?