Townhouse market tracking update

At the end of July we posted an excel spreadsheet that YLTNBoomerang is using to track the market for Downtown waterfront Vancouver townhouses.  YLTN just sent in the updated data so I’m posting it here for anyone interested in this part of the market.  There are a few empty spots in this update as summer is vacation time.

The information in this spreadsheet includes square footages, new listings and price changes from January 10 until September 15th 2008 (today).  The entire database is color-coded, with red indicating price increases and green indicating drops.  There have been a few increases since the original posting, and a flurry of price drops over the weekend.

Click here to download the XLS document.

I’m posting this data with the same challenge as the original post: If you can graph this data in an interesting and informative way I’ll post it here, just email it to me.

update: bcubbins has added selling price data from land titles to this spreadsheet and posted it here.  Most of it seems to be going for 5 to 10% less than listing price, the shocker is a unit at 1280 Richards that went for 32.8% less than listing price.  Is that correct bcubbins?

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bcubbins
bcubbins
12 years ago

Pope, that was a sale from the developer to the first owner. It is unlikely that the developer would intentionally fudge the "declared value". Could be a typo though. But of the 16 units registered so far, that was the second-highest price. The developer still has title to the remaining 36 units, so I'll check to see if more registrations go through over the next few days.

bcubbins
bcubbins
12 years ago

I've added selling prices to YLTN's data, based on Land Titles data. Green means it sold for less than the last asking price…

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pNx9_0kAZz

oziijjiizo
oziijjiizo
12 years ago

So the sellers hang on to their unrealistic prices like retarded pitbulls

add in: and the sellers' equity is decimated in half

instant truism! 🙂

Mold City
Mold City
12 years ago

There's never a shortage of stupid people, the problem for the market is that stupid people can't always get easy loans.

If you sell your house for 10% less than current 'market value' you're still going to make plenty of money on a property you bought just 5 years ago – you've got to admit that's not a normal situation, and it should bring comfort to anyone that missed selling at the peak – the only way to sell now is stand out amongst the sea of listings with a sharp price.

Mold City
Mold City
12 years ago

With enough loose credit you don't need money. This is the double whammy of the credit market boom and bust, though so far to a lesser degree in Canada than the US. Just the simple act of the CMHC removing the option for zero down / 40 year mortgages will have a big impact on the market. Add to the mix a tightening credit environment that locks loan amounts to proven income rather than future fantasy house values and you're standing at the top of a very long slide.

john
john
12 years ago

Rich asians like tile siding.

pinocchio123
pinocchio123
12 years ago

Thanks betamax for words of encouragement.

What makes me sad though is that people so stupid somehow managed to make so much money, somehow.

betamax
betamax
12 years ago

Of course houses are still selling, but at half the rate of last year and falling.

By definition, anyone buying now at high prices is a fool who doesn't even watch TV news, and fools and their money are always parted. There have been idiots in the US buying at high prices well into the crash, so expect the same here.

Some people bought Nortel at $60 on the way down to $2, so expect nothing less in the housing market. There's never a shortage of stupid people.

pinocchio123
pinocchio123
12 years ago

Houses are still selling.

At least here in Burnaby.

They must be priced right, right?

Or perhaps that's just how it works – stuff sells no matter how ridiculously priced it seems to be, at any given moment – crash or no crash. Like that floor-tile clad place in NEw West. You tell me.

mk-kids
mk-kids
12 years ago

Former mortgage broker writes book about what went wrong… http://www.newsweek.com/id/121512/page/1

Bluesman
Bluesman
12 years ago

Patriotz: The guy on BNN WAS talking about stocks. Sorry for not making that clear 🙁

betamax
betamax
12 years ago

indeed it’s going to be the best time to sell for a long, long, time.

Well said, though you know that virtually all of these greedy mooks are going to chase the market down and figure that one out far too late.

I know several realtors who complain that their clients won't drop the price enough to get a sale; meanwhile, they're talking out of the other side of their mouth and telling everyone who'll listen that this downturn is just a temporary 'blip' and that RE prices will always go back up.

Why sell cheaply if it's a temporary blip? So the sellers hang on to their unrealistic prices like retarded pitbulls, and the realtors are the architects of their own financial demise.

patriotz
patriotz
12 years ago

Well yes that goes without saying, and I have been saying that myself in any case.

The point is that selling at, say, 10-15% off the peak of a historic bubble is still getting a very high price. Whether it's a good time to sell or not depends only on future prices, not past prices. So it's not a bad time to sell at all – indeed it's going to be the best time to sell for a long, long, time.

RJB
RJB
12 years ago

Anybody know the story behind The Barclay?
http://www.lestwarog.com/barclay/

I walk by this building often and it's been sitting half empty for at least a year.

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Yeah but if you sold today and wanted a good chance of success you'd have to settle for less than you'd have sold for a year ago.

patriotz
patriotz
12 years ago

Peak or after peak is too late, you need to sell 6-12 months before the peak to have an easy, quick, hassle free sale.

Nonsense, you can still sell quickly right now for a lot more than this market will be at in a couple of years.

Just drop the price enough.

jesse
jesse
12 years ago

You know it's bad when CNBC preempts Mad Money for CNBC World Asia. Sounds like they're expecting a bit of insomnia.

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

<bpatriotz</b>

"If it’s too early to buy, that means prices are going down, and that means it’s a good time to sell."

True for some things but not for Real Estate, ask anyone who's trying to sell now if it's a good time to sell… Nothing is moving so it's a bad time to sell. Peak or after peak is too late, you need to sell 6-12 months before the peak to have an easy, quick, hassle free sale.

patriotz
patriotz
12 years ago

Shanghai Cliff Diving: Composite Index Breaks Below 2K

Are we running out of rich Asians? 🙂

dear john
dear john
12 years ago

Looks like the market has started to take off.

If by 'take off' you mean leave town, I do believe you're correct. Have we hit a record level of listings yet? We have over 20,000 listings now. Sales have dropped off a cliff and prices are dropping, so yeah I guess you could say the market has 'taken off'.

lager not logger
lager not logger
12 years ago

It's nice to see these market segments tracked, I'd like to see the one for west end condos under $650k.

For these townhouses its interesting to see people jack up the prices and then drop them. I think it was Anna who had a theory about that in an earlier story: If your realtor tells you places are only selling for 5% off list price, you might try upping your asking price to make up for the difference. Of course that just makes them even more overpriced and they get no offers, so they end up dropping the asking price.

Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
12 years ago

File this under under renos gone wrong. It appears they used floor tile for siding. DOH!!!

http://tinyurl.com/5zjyas

I walked by this place, and it really does appear to be floor tiles.

squidly77
squidly77
12 years ago

house prices are now irrelavent..

watch the pig people bleed

patriotz
patriotz
12 years ago

“No, it’s not a good time to sell (too late) and not a good time to buy (too early).”

This is the contrapositive of the NAR's famous "It's a great time to buy or sell" and and it's just as nonsensical. If someone said the same thing about a stock the interviewer would laugh at him. But as usual when discussing RE all logic goes out the window.

If it's too early to buy, that means prices are going down, and that means it's a good time to sell. Just not as good as the peak.