Townhouse market tracking update
At the end of July we posted an excel spreadsheet that YLTNBoomerang is using to track the market for Downtown waterfront Vancouver townhouses. YLTN just sent in the updated data so I’m posting it here for anyone interested in this part of the market. There are a few empty spots in this update as summer is vacation time.
The information in this spreadsheet includes square footages, new listings and price changes from January 10 until September 15th 2008 (today). The entire database is color-coded, with red indicating price increases and green indicating drops. There have been a few increases since the original posting, and a flurry of price drops over the weekend.
Click here to download the XLS document.
I’m posting this data with the same challenge as the original post: If you can graph this data in an interesting and informative way I’ll post it here, just email it to me.
update: bcubbins has added selling price data from land titles to this spreadsheet and posted it here. Most of it seems to be going for 5 to 10% less than listing price, the shocker is a unit at 1280 Richards that went for 32.8% less than listing price. Is that correct bcubbins?
September 17th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Pope, that was a sale from the developer to the first owner. It is unlikely that the developer would intentionally fudge the "declared value". Could be a typo though. But of the 16 units registered so far, that was the second-highest price. The developer still has title to the remaining 36 units, so I'll check to see if more registrations go through over the next few days.
September 17th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Thanks bcubbins! I've added a link on the main post. Did the unit at 1280 Richards really go for 32.8% less than list?!? Or is there an error in that data?
September 17th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
I've added selling prices to YLTN's data, based on Land Titles data. Green means it sold for less than the last asking price…
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pNx9_0kAZz…
September 16th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
So the sellers hang on to their unrealistic prices like retarded pitbulls
add in: and the sellers' equity is decimated in half
instant truism!
September 16th, 2008 at 10:01 am
There's never a shortage of stupid people, the problem for the market is that stupid people can't always get easy loans.
If you sell your house for 10% less than current 'market value' you're still going to make plenty of money on a property you bought just 5 years ago – you've got to admit that's not a normal situation, and it should bring comfort to anyone that missed selling at the peak – the only way to sell now is stand out amongst the sea of listings with a sharp price.
September 16th, 2008 at 9:56 am
With enough loose credit you don't need money. This is the double whammy of the credit market boom and bust, though so far to a lesser degree in Canada than the US. Just the simple act of the CMHC removing the option for zero down / 40 year mortgages will have a big impact on the market. Add to the mix a tightening credit environment that locks loan amounts to proven income rather than future fantasy house values and you're standing at the top of a very long slide.
September 16th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Rich asians like tile siding.
September 16th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Thanks betamax for words of encouragement.
What makes me sad though is that people so stupid somehow managed to make so much money, somehow.
September 16th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Of course houses are still selling, but at half the rate of last year and falling.
By definition, anyone buying now at high prices is a fool who doesn't even watch TV news, and fools and their money are always parted. There have been idiots in the US buying at high prices well into the crash, so expect the same here.
Some people bought Nortel at $60 on the way down to $2, so expect nothing less in the housing market. There's never a shortage of stupid people.
September 16th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Houses are still selling.
At least here in Burnaby.
They must be priced right, right?
Or perhaps that's just how it works – stuff sells no matter how ridiculously priced it seems to be, at any given moment – crash or no crash. Like that floor-tile clad place in NEw West. You tell me.
September 16th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Former mortgage broker writes book about what went wrong… http://www.newsweek.com/id/121512/page/1
September 16th, 2008 at 6:34 am
Patriotz: The guy on BNN WAS talking about stocks. Sorry for not making that clear
September 16th, 2008 at 1:17 am
indeed it’s going to be the best time to sell for a long, long, time.
Well said, though you know that virtually all of these greedy mooks are going to chase the market down and figure that one out far too late.
I know several realtors who complain that their clients won't drop the price enough to get a sale; meanwhile, they're talking out of the other side of their mouth and telling everyone who'll listen that this downturn is just a temporary 'blip' and that RE prices will always go back up.
Why sell cheaply if it's a temporary blip? So the sellers hang on to their unrealistic prices like retarded pitbulls, and the realtors are the architects of their own financial demise.
September 16th, 2008 at 12:33 am
Well yes that goes without saying, and I have been saying that myself in any case.
The point is that selling at, say, 10-15% off the peak of a historic bubble is still getting a very high price. Whether it's a good time to sell or not depends only on future prices, not past prices. So it's not a bad time to sell at all – indeed it's going to be the best time to sell for a long, long, time.
September 16th, 2008 at 12:30 am
Anybody know the story behind The Barclay?
http://www.lestwarog.com/barclay/
I walk by this building often and it's been sitting half empty for at least a year.
September 15th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Yeah but if you sold today and wanted a good chance of success you'd have to settle for less than you'd have sold for a year ago.
September 15th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
Peak or after peak is too late, you need to sell 6-12 months before the peak to have an easy, quick, hassle free sale.
Nonsense, you can still sell quickly right now for a lot more than this market will be at in a couple of years.
Just drop the price enough.
September 15th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
You know it's bad when CNBC preempts Mad Money for CNBC World Asia. Sounds like they're expecting a bit of insomnia.
September 15th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
<bpatriotz</b>
"If it’s too early to buy, that means prices are going down, and that means it’s a good time to sell."
True for some things but not for Real Estate, ask anyone who's trying to sell now if it's a good time to sell… Nothing is moving so it's a bad time to sell. Peak or after peak is too late, you need to sell 6-12 months before the peak to have an easy, quick, hassle free sale.
September 15th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Shanghai Cliff Diving: Composite Index Breaks Below 2K
Are we running out of rich Asians?
September 15th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Looks like the market has started to take off.
If by 'take off' you mean leave town, I do believe you're correct. Have we hit a record level of listings yet? We have over 20,000 listings now. Sales have dropped off a cliff and prices are dropping, so yeah I guess you could say the market has 'taken off'.
September 15th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
It's nice to see these market segments tracked, I'd like to see the one for west end condos under $650k.
For these townhouses its interesting to see people jack up the prices and then drop them. I think it was Anna who had a theory about that in an earlier story: If your realtor tells you places are only selling for 5% off list price, you might try upping your asking price to make up for the difference. Of course that just makes them even more overpriced and they get no offers, so they end up dropping the asking price.
September 15th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
File this under under renos gone wrong. It appears they used floor tile for siding. DOH!!!
http://tinyurl.com/5zjyas
I walked by this place, and it really does appear to be floor tiles.
September 15th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
house prices are now irrelavent..
watch the pig people bleed
September 15th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
“No, it’s not a good time to sell (too late) and not a good time to buy (too early).”
This is the contrapositive of the NAR's famous "It's a great time to buy or sell" and and it's just as nonsensical. If someone said the same thing about a stock the interviewer would laugh at him. But as usual when discussing RE all logic goes out the window.
If it's too early to buy, that means prices are going down, and that means it's a good time to sell. Just not as good as the peak.
September 15th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGA…
September 15th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Does anyone have any recent hands-on experience in the real estate market either as a buyer or seller? i.e. is anyone here actually selling a property or seriously in the market right now?
September 15th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
I was watching BNN and the interviewer asked an older gentleman expert: "So is this a good time to buy"? and the older guy said, "No, it's not a good time to sell (too late) and not a good time to buy (too early)." And the interviewer asked "So you're not buying anything right now?" to which the old man answered "I used to when I was younger" and the interviewer laughed and said "So you learned your lesson". heehee
September 15th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Just saw that the Lumiere restaurant is opening again this time with a famed NYC chef. Vancouver really is a world class city and everyone knows it. NYC and Vancouver are like twins.
September 15th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Looks like the market has started to take off. I saw lots of sold signs around the neighboorhood and lots of rich asiuns.
September 15th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
..a flurry of price drops over the weekend.
Fallout from run of bad economic news ala Lehman et all? Maybe theyre just getting tired of carrying the mortgage and their realtor has let them know about the endangered status of the Vancouver buyer.
Thanks for the spreadsheet YLTN, I wonder if any other city has as many real estate obsessives as we do?
September 15th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
A side note to Montery, who was tracking west end two bedroom condos under $650k: If you have a current version of that spreadsheet, I'd like to post it in the next couple of weeks. It would be interesting to see whats happening in that market.