BC House sales to plunge 28%
According to an article in today’s Sun the BC Real Estate Association is projecting a sales drop of 28% across the province this year, with a slight rebound in 2009 as consumers ‘recover confidence’.
Muir said home prices have been declining since their peak in the first quarter of 2008, but on balanced over the year, he expects the $453,000 average price to remain three per cent above the overall average home price of 2007.
Muir expects the average home price to decline nine per cent to $413,000 in 2009, but downward pressure on prices to ease by the second quarter of next year as homes become more affordable and inventories decline.
The BCREA’s prediction is the latest housing forecast to be released and is more optimistic about recovery than the forecast released last week by Central 1 Credit Union, which forecast prices to fall more steeply and sales recovering in 2010.
Meanwhile at an industry meeting in Ontario realtors got a pep talk about the current downturn as an oppourtunity to “raise the bar”.
Serious agents who stick out the downturn will have the opportunity to shine, they added, although their optimism appeared lost on some participants.
“They’re basically saying that next year is a writeoff,” one audience member said to colleagues at her table.
The downturn may have a silver lining, causing the industry to “raise the bar” on customer service, said panelist Michael Polzler, regional director at Re/Max.
“There are far too many agents out there who don’t specialize, who do just two or three deals a year. Would you use a part-time lawyer or a part-time dentist? We need to raise the bar,” Mr. Polzler said.
On a side note: I’ve started up an experimental Vancouver Condo Wiki If any of you feel the need to obsesively catalog predictions, track sub markets or share tips and links. If this works out I’ll eventually add a link from the main page of this site. For now you can find it at http://vancouvercondo.info/wiki
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October 29th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Wake me when the headlines read 28 per cent price drop…
October 29th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
that’s kind of a ridiculous comparison. lawyers and dentists actually get an education and training, etc. realtor-types are glorified used car salesmen..to put it nicely..
October 29th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
He is paid to spin.
A quick Google scan of some of his quotes reveals the dangers of giving this pumper any credibility.
He is paid to say what he says. And so let’s keep and eye on the pimps
October 29th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
No, prices will drop more than 50% because prices were over 2x sustainable levels, this was already in progress before the financial meltdown.
Prices may drop well below even normal sustainable levels because of the financial crisis.
October 29th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Sweet dreams are made of this
Who am I to disagree?
Travel the world and the seven seas
Everybody’s looking for something
Some of them want to use you
Some of them want to get used by you
Some of them want to abuse you
Some of them want to be abused
Sweet dreams…
October 29th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Why not act like O-T-H-E-R Marketing boards and have quota re: # of Realtors?
When times are good, you can’t recruit enough hopefuls with their realtors license convincing Granny and Uncle Jake to sell (even if they are dead !).
You pump, prime and pimp a market, especially those firms that have a Star like Bob Rennie who has their apprentice realtor- minions and underlings do all the dirty work.
The more realtors the better in a hot market, but when times get lean apparently you will “eat your young” to save your own skins…which pretty much sums up the ethics of the profession anyway .
PS Maybe if someone can create an on-line Real Estate company that bypasses the Realtor like on line stocktrading, I’ll be in on the IPO ASAP ! I’ll bet we would then have a much different market with less hot air and BS inflating it.
October 29th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
http://www.kingsentinel.com/news/2008/1029/news/
You guys wont believe this, but this female pimp, makes Muir look legitimate.
October 29th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
>No, prices will drop more than 50% because prices were
>over 2x sustainable levels, this was already in progress
>before the financial meltdown.
>
>Prices may drop well below even normal sustainable levels
>because of the financial crisis.
Yup, I’m expecting at least a 50% drop from peak to trough. You are right about the potential drop greater than 50% because markets are irrational on the way up, and markets are irrational on the way down.
If the economy has a bad enough recession (or even depression), we will definitely see over 50% price drops from peak to trough.
October 29th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Yes, you read that right… 200 agents completed only 3 deals in 15 days.
Sheesh I wouldn’t want to be a Vancouver real estate agent right now.
October 29th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
http://www.financialpost.com/n.....?id=917523
October 29th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Across the Lower Mainland, developers who only months ago were gobbling up easy money to build wherever they could are now scrambling to rearrange construction schedules. They are adjusting to a new reality where credit is constricted; pre-sales, the lifeblood of the construction boom, are drying up; and buyers, amid forecasts of a 13% drop in housing values next year – after falling 10% this year – are growing too skittish to commit.
also i pulled this
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO.....008-09.png
from here
http://globaleconomicanalysis......-2008.html
figure thats a good guide for your resident specs
i think you guys are in for some fun..
October 29th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
“There’s a lot people there to make a quick profit, and it backfired on them,” said Mario Mainella, a vice-president at Bowra, whose firm is now contemplating legal action against some of those owners.
October 29th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Where the hell is Bob Rennie in that article? I was positive he has some royal prerogative as the Condo King to insert some pap to fool the peasantry and keep them lined up ten deep for presales…
October 29th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Edged down, huh? No need to listen further.
October 29th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Home prices have been edging lower since the spring and most of the correction in prices will be observed this year.
Hahaha. Now that is really freaking funny. Yes, by December of this year (60 days from now), the correction will be all but over. Good one. Since Cam still expects a positive 2008 overall, it looks like he doesn’t think there will be a single down calendar year.
Once global financial and equity markets stabilize, The housing market will again reflect the fundamentals of employment, wages and population growth.
Oh yeah. The obscene appreciation, disgusting affordability and whacked fundamentals were just part of the Totally Normal Neverending Upward Price Spiral™. But it got held up just a smidgeon by this totally unexpected crises thingy. No worries though, this little monkey wrench will be all taken care of by next year and prices and sales will take off again.
While homebuyers are benefiting from a wide selection of homes for sale, the imbalance between supply and demand has put some downward pressure on home prices. The average MLS® residential price is expected to increae 3 percent this year to $585,000. However, the increase is due to a cyclical price peak in the first quarter. Home prices have been edging lower since then and, while a 10 per cent decline in the average residential price is forecast in 2009, most of that decline will have already occurred by the end of 2008.
Let me get this straight: There is an imbalance between supply and demand (understatement of the year), so prices will fall. But prices won’t fall this calendar year because the first three months of the year were super duper good. And prices will go down 10% next year, but they won’t really because they already sort of went down this year.
However, the combination of increased affordability and some improvement in consumer confidence are expected to lift home sales by 4 per cent to 28,000 units in 2009. While a small increase in home sales is not sufficient on its own to firm up home prices, a reduction in the inventory of homes for sale is expected to trend the market toward more balanced conditions in 2009.
More comedy. Ok, as outlined above, prices will fall but sort of not fall next year. This price drop that really isn’t will lift sales. Through the power of Perpetual Motion Economics™, the sales increase caused by falling prices will cause rising prices. Well almost, we need a little help from inventory reduction. He doesn’t explain where it comes from, but I presume the price drop (that really wasn’t) caused the increase in sales that reduced inventory. This powerful one-two punch will stabilize prices. Yippee. Thanks to Muironomics, all is well and the day is saved.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
calgarys pretty much toast and it sounds like vancouver will now join the party
crank it up..http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWkL1Rjs-cE
feels like being a float a sea for 6 months with an all male crew of 25 and finding a tropical island that only inhabitants are female(200 of em)
October 29th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWkL1Rjs-cE
October 29th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
a dummies guide to the vancouver housing crash
http://globaleconomicanalysis......-results=3
October 29th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
a dummies guide to the coming vancouver housing smash up
October 29th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
You commented: “with a slight rebound in 2009 as consumers ‘recover confidence’.”
This won’t happen as long as you are on the scene because now every resident of BC knows what a G’Damn LIAR you are so for the sake of the industry you are always trying to protect I demand that you resign immediately. YOU are the cause, along with Rennie and Pastrick of a major crisis in confidence. If you don’t resign ‘forthwith’ (that’s a legal term in case you weren’t aware) then someone on this site is going to do an online petition and circulate it everywhere on the net where the media allows comments about your pathetic misleading prophecies which have bankrupted many of our upstanding but naive young yuppies.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Oh that’s the easy part. I have been seeing classified ads in the local real estate throwaway papers seeking “arsonists, no experience necessary, the perfect position for part time or retired realtors”
October 29th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
They can spin numbers to reflect whatever their prediction or argument is.
October 29th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
ImaREpimp@shaw.ca
or try
Ima4Qdinduhhead@telus.net
Re : Moosehead, we’re talkin 24 pack , right?
October 29th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
http://njrereport.com/index.ph.....ltor-spin/
I believe we are at #4 right now, or maybe higher, maybe even as high as 7, I don’t know, BS all sounds the same to me. Where do you guys think we’re at?
October 29th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca
Give em hell!
October 29th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
you da man!!
October 29th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
One man’s heaven is another man’s hell. Tell you what… you take the tropical island and I’ll take the boat at sea!
October 29th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
The association, in a forecast published Wednesday, said prices could average $453,000 in B.C. this year. But for 2009, prices are predicted to slump 9 per cent to an average of $413,000 – with much of the decline taking place before the end of this year.
With Vancouver prices down, this option is gone.
The soaring supply of homes, accompanied by weak demand, is driving down the prices.
http://ctv2.theglobeandmail.co.....v-business
realtors on ramen soon
October 29th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
…”The current situation also quells the mantra that accompanies all booms – “This time it’s different” – said Paul Boenisch, a real estate agent at Prudential Sussex Realty in North Vancouver.
“I heard people say, ‘There’s no more land left to build. We’re a global destination now in the world.’ We have to keep in mind that five years ago, before home prices doubled, we were still the same city,” Mr. Boenisch said.
…
No longer: The B.C. Real Estate Association predicted sales will be down about 30 per cent this year in Vancouver and around B.C.
Mr. Boenisch’s experience is even more severe, saying sales are already down as much as 50 per cent.
“When you have 80 per cent more inventory with half the amount of buyers, this is a dramatically different market,” Mr. Boenisch said.”…
Go Paul Go You da man!
October 29th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
6. “Higher interest rates (substitute economic conditions here) are slowing home sales, but we see this as another sign of a soft landing for the housing sector which remains at historically high levels.” - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“After five years of booming sales, we are now experiencing normal market conditions across most of the country… most owners can expect steadier gains in home values for the foreseeable future.” - Thomas M. Stevens, NAR President (substitute Muir here)
and ready and waiting for 8
8. “Now sellers in many areas of the country are pricing to reflect current market realities. As a result, there could be some lift to home sales, but it’ll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise.” - David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
October 29th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
October 29th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Some estimate that fully 70% of condo buyers in recent years were speculators.
Yet Pastrick maintained in his infamous March forecast that there were low levels of speculation in the market solely because six month resales were low. What a joke. You got a research budget, Helmut. Spend half and hour and pick up the goddamn phone and call some real estate peeps. Or read a blog or something.
How many myths do us long time bears have to endure?
The soft landing one is finally gone.
The B.C. economy is immune is gone.
Speculation in the market is gone.
I can’t wait for “no speculative lending” in Vancouver myth to die an ugly death.
October 29th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
I can’t believe how many scathing articles are hitting MSM.
Just a few months ago, the only stories coming out were a few vague articles about a balanced market and the fact that we shouldn’t compare 2008 stats with 2007 since 2007 was such a phenomenal year.
Interesting times indeed!
October 29th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
October 30th, 2008 at 2:49 am
Anyway, you’re right, we are off the charts, same rhetoric from the talking heads.
October 30th, 2008 at 5:33 am
“How many myths do us long time bears have to endure?
The soft landing one is finally gone.
The B.C. economy is immune is gone.
Speculation in the market is gone.
I can’t wait for “no speculative lending” in Vancouver myth to die an ugly death.”
How about this one:
One of Muir’s favourite:
“Unlike the US, BC household’s balance sheets are in good shape”
My guess is that Tsur and Muir will get on the frequent guest list on the Bill Good show.
The message will be repetitive, and along the lines of that when Bill bought his first home it seemed a budget stretch, but in the long run it has paid off.
Buy, Buy, Buy now before the next leg up, because they don’t make anymore land in the Best Place on Earth, and that after the Olympics many people will come.
The Bust will come just the same, but they will still forecast a recovery in Spring of 20xx.
October 30th, 2008 at 7:18 am
oh to be a fly on the wall at Gordos’ breakfast meeting this morning…..
Beware the Ides of May/09
October 30th, 2008 at 7:27 am
As long as you can leave TWO x’s in the date, you’ll be either correct or at the very worst, long dead by the time you’re proven wrong!
October 30th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Re Bob Rennie
Globe and Mail Sept. 12, 2008 (last month ! )
http://www.theglobeandmail.com....._mostemail
Quite interesting, it almost seems on par with a person on the Titanic, all is well, the looming iceberg is still a whole mile away , then BOOM and everyone saying ” WTF was that “!!!
In hindsite, I think a lot of realtors can trace their professional demise(aka starvation ) to this condo mess , which arose from what this Bob Rennie article reveals re: how the product (condos) was pimped.
Most of this was speculation-based sales, which gave a false sense of the true market,and encouraged more speculation - based building, all adding up to a recipe for a predictable oversupply and concurrent collapse in both sales and subsequently prices.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Maybe they were pressured by presale buyers to get on with it, who knows, but they said it wasn’t financing, and the work commencing again is consistent with that.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Yes, I am a realtor and am proud of my track record with my client network which I had built based on trust, integrity, honesty and good service. When general negative statements are made about us we can’t help but take it somewhat personally. If a negative comment is to be made please try to put it into proper context. In every industry, there will always be “bad” apples bar none.
For the record, when Cameron Muir was on CKNW denying that our mortgage market was totally different from the US subprime, it was I who confronted him and begged to differ.
Previous to being a realtor, I was a residential and commercial mortgage lender and still have strong ties in the financial industry.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:47 am
October 30th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Excellent, pile on the inventory, it would also be nice to have a hulking half finished concrete and steel memorial to the late great Housing Bubble in such a high profile location. It would be much more dignified than a hole in the ground, Vancouver deserves better!
October 30th, 2008 at 10:04 am