BC House sales to plunge 28%

According to an article in today’s Sun the BC Real Estate Association is projecting a sales drop of 28% across the province this year, with a slight rebound in 2009 as consumers ‘recover confidence’.

Muir said home prices have been declining since their peak in the first quarter of 2008, but on balanced over the year, he expects the $453,000 average price to remain three per cent above the overall average home price of 2007.

Muir expects the average home price to decline nine per cent to $413,000 in 2009, but downward pressure on prices to ease by the second quarter of next year as homes become more affordable and inventories decline.

The BCREA’s prediction is the latest housing forecast to be released and is more optimistic about recovery than the forecast released last week by Central 1 Credit Union, which forecast prices to fall more steeply and sales recovering in 2010.

Meanwhile at an industry meeting in Ontario realtors got a pep talk about the current downturn as an oppourtunity to “raise the bar”.

Serious agents who stick out the downturn will have the opportunity to shine, they added, although their optimism appeared lost on some participants.

“They’re basically saying that next year is a writeoff,” one audience member said to colleagues at her table.

The downturn may have a silver lining, causing the industry to “raise the bar” on customer service, said panelist Michael Polzler, regional director at Re/Max.

“There are far too many agents out there who don’t specialize, who do just two or three deals a year. Would you use a part-time lawyer or a part-time dentist? We need to raise the bar,” Mr. Polzler said.

On a side note: I’ve started up an experimental Vancouver Condo Wiki If any of you feel the need to obsesively catalog predictions, track sub markets or share tips and links.  If this works out I’ll eventually add a link from the main page of this site. For now you can find it at http://vancouvercondo.info/wiki

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jesse
jesse
11 years ago

"My son was working with a construction crew on the Olympic Village site and they were promised work;"

Next time get it in writing 😆

bearette
bearette
11 years ago

Raincouver, I think you missed the point of that post … points to the agenda of people shaping the real estate stories you are reading … it wasn't a listing tip…

Anonymous
Anonymous
11 years ago

From HouseHuntVictoria.blogspot.com HEE HEE Why does this make me so gleeful? Mr.4AM said… David Said: "vg, that might also be a good reason for people to want to keep their money in a hard asset such as real estate. Stocks may drop 12% in a day but with real estate that would take a year." You guys keep your money tied down to a depreciating asset in a currency that will do God only knows what. Me, I'm staying partially in cash, partially in physical gold, and I'm seriously thinking of opening up a Forex account to play maybe 10% to 20% of my networth unleveraged on any very obvious plays. The 27% decline in Canadian dollar (vs USD) in 1 month was a HUGE opportunity. And while it wasn't obvious to me on day 1, by day 3 or… Read more »

squidly77
squidly77
11 years ago

"Canadian banks have become very tight on cash and their lending has dramatically changed," says Philip Pincus of Platinum Equities. The National Post writes that as many as 70% of Vancouver condo buyers in recent years were speculators, for example. "With credit tightening, some are so over-extended they cannot get mortgages, while others simply no longer want to take on units they committed to at the frothy prices of the past few years."
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mo
let the uneducated realtors and specs who tried to price vancouverites out of vancouver eat ramen

burn baby burn

Raincouver
Raincouver
11 years ago

"I work close to the Olympic village construction. There are an aweful lot of empty holes in the ground in the blocks adjacent to the Millenium Water site. These are developments that were hoping to take advantage of the MW infrastructure work."

My son was working with a construction crew on the Olympic Village site and they were promised work; because there was going to be tower two, three, four, different phases, etc… you could have work for several years.

I knew that was bunk. Now it's all circling the drain…just like I knew it would.

Raincouver
Raincouver
11 years ago

a reporter who is currently trying to unload a $1.9 million property on the West Side.

Actually, I would say he’s trying to unload a $1.4 (more or less) million property for $1.9 mil – this just hasn’t dawned on him yet.

Gosh. That has everything to do with ordinary RE buyers. Thanks for bringing that up.

It's important that all of us keep our eyes open for a good million dollar deal.

Thanks for the heads-up. Surely, couldn't do without it.

Anonymous
Anonymous
11 years ago

JOB AVAILABLE:) Why not be an AUCTIONEER?

http://tinyurl.com/682syg

t-bear
t-bear
11 years ago

Regarding the number of storage units parked around Kits — it's been all month long, just not around moving dates. When I sold recently, I rented one to put all my clutter in for staging purposes. I think that staging is becoming a necessity for any listing, and more people are getting hip to those handy storage boxes! From my experience, totally worth it, and hugely recommended. I also recommend that sellers get in their time machines and go back to June when there was a hope in hell of selling. Yay! Bring on the price drops!!

crabman
11 years ago

Been updating the condo supply numbers on the wiki page. So far, for 2009, there are 3,551 new condo units scheduled to be completed just in downtown!

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

Drachen:

My guess is its either they either sold, or can't afford the rent , can't afford the mortgage payment, or simply the usual mobility seeking new digs .

It's one of those interesting barometers that makes more sense as we get similar statistics and observations such as yours. Watch how many Budget and U-Haul trucks are on the street this weekend. ( Maybe go up to a few parties moving and asking them up front as to why they are moving and maybe where to ? )Then see if anyone is moving IN the newly vacated premises .

trackback

[…] Read more: Comment on BC House sales to plunge 28% by Brad […]

Drachen
Drachen
11 years ago

Has anyone else noticed an abnormally high number of people moving this month? I live in Kits and I swear there's at least one unit on each block face that's moving out.

Perhaps with the lowered financial security people are moving to cheaper digs? Anyone else have theories? Perhaps it's just too small of a sample area.

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

Here's a good one: Story in Todays Province PG A 17 "Surrey faces lawsuit if center not finished" http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html… This is related to 2010 Olympics and an "Olympic volunteer training center" Surrey agreed to build . Apparently they signed the deal in MAY 2008 and are supposed to have it completed in February. However, they haven't even started yet. It's UNbelievable re: the lack of transparency. It appears that even Surrey City Council never even saw the final agreement or the no-contest cause in it , whereby Surrey has effectively agreed to waive any legal defence if they fail to deliver. Why would you unilaterally waive ANY legal defence ? Surrey's own lawyers apparently approved this ?!?!? It makes me wonder if Millenium Olympic Village is on the same shaky legal ground re due- diligence and taxpayers best interests being… Read more »

Brittanny
Brittanny
11 years ago

"CAN'T WEST" Dips below a dollar. I guess their condo subsidiary companies are not doing to well. That will teach them for their biased spin doctoring.Guess I'll have to find something else to line the bird cage with.

markx
markx
11 years ago

On the labour front, low-wage manual jobs are getting hit VERY hard. It's really night and day compared to summer of last year. It's now difficult to find an entry level position if you can't speak english and don't have a strong back.

As I said, expect significant rental vacancies and lower rents on the private basement suite market, starting in a few months. My prediction of a two-leg down might blend into a continuous crash, with rent and price crashing simultaneously.

Vansanity
Vansanity
11 years ago

NO-LYMPICS: No-problem 🙂

I have felt our building (next door) shake twice today, that's 2 explosions. They've got whalers up in the corners on the west side of the property. Oh… I hear the horns going, that means another blast is coming.

From here it looks and feels like they're working away just like they had been before they halted work. If that changes, I'll post on here.

Off-topic, front page of the Sun Section B, I believe, big chart with sales and prices and their conservative perdictioins. It's an everyday thing now with the MSM.

crabman
11 years ago

Twarog's web site has an alternate url (although it's missing some functionality).

http://jstarventures.com/

bdk
bdk
11 years ago

The only thing one of Twarog's co workers could think of, regarding his name being pulled from his own website, was that he may have run into licensing issues and be temporarily suspended, and that is why it only shows Sonja and Wayne's names.

It sucks because Twarogs site was a great reference tool.

patriotz
patriotz
11 years ago

a reporter who is currently trying to unload a $1.9 million property on the West Side.

Actually, I would say he's trying to unload a $1.4 (more or less) million property for $1.9 mil – this just hasn't dawned on him yet. 🙂

bearette
bearette
11 years ago

What's really interesting about that Globe puff piece on Rennie that quotes him pushing people to by now instead of waiting until 2015 is who wrote it — a reporter who is currently trying to unload a $1.9 million property on the West Side.

Puts that piece in a whole new light, doesn't it?

Yalie
Yalie
11 years ago

I work close to the Olympic village construction. There are an aweful lot of empty holes in the ground in the blocks adjacent to the Millenium Water site. These are developments that were hoping to take advantage of the MW infrastructure work.

Most of them started digging a few months ago but there has been no activity in most of them for a few weeks. One of them has a sign that says "for lease: outdoor storage or parking lot".

I don't know if these count as "stalled" or not, but it looks like there will be a lot of eyesores in the vicinity of Olympic-ville come 2010.

Informer10
Informer10
11 years ago

Bdk,

He will not back you up for next few hours reason?is that you at #45?

bdk
bdk
11 years ago

This is all true I think buying real estate now is a great idea!

Perhaps now that the line of business I work in is tanking I can go work in the warehouse?

Are they hiring SATV?

Bdk
Bdk
11 years ago

Finally I wanted to withdraw all my statements against real estate i also ask for my appology to advice people to invest in stock market please forgive me if i ever say that rent won't support housing further.i was shocked wwhen rents have been tripled since i am here with my math honours and bussiness diploma i thought i was able to teach people about not to buy leaky condo but i have learned my self otherway around that any leak is part of nature when ever it occur we must fix that as we human always go to doctors hospital so does leaky condo need a professional eye to take care of leak every day.i won't take your too much valuable time the only thing i want to mention specially to vancouverites "please do not waste your hard earning… Read more »