BC House sales to plunge 28%
According to an article in today’s Sun the BC Real Estate Association is projecting a sales drop of 28% across the province this year, with a slight rebound in 2009 as consumers ‘recover confidence’.
Muir said home prices have been declining since their peak in the first quarter of 2008, but on balanced over the year, he expects the $453,000 average price to remain three per cent above the overall average home price of 2007.
Muir expects the average home price to decline nine per cent to $413,000 in 2009, but downward pressure on prices to ease by the second quarter of next year as homes become more affordable and inventories decline.
The BCREA’s prediction is the latest housing forecast to be released and is more optimistic about recovery than the forecast released last week by Central 1 Credit Union, which forecast prices to fall more steeply and sales recovering in 2010.
Meanwhile at an industry meeting in Ontario realtors got a pep talk about the current downturn as an oppourtunity to “raise the bar”.
Serious agents who stick out the downturn will have the opportunity to shine, they added, although their optimism appeared lost on some participants.
“They’re basically saying that next year is a writeoff,” one audience member said to colleagues at her table.
The downturn may have a silver lining, causing the industry to “raise the bar” on customer service, said panelist Michael Polzler, regional director at Re/Max.
“There are far too many agents out there who don’t specialize, who do just two or three deals a year. Would you use a part-time lawyer or a part-time dentist? We need to raise the bar,” Mr. Polzler said.
On a side note: I’ve started up an experimental Vancouver Condo Wiki If any of you feel the need to obsesively catalog predictions, track sub markets or share tips and links. If this works out I’ll eventually add a link from the main page of this site. For now you can find it at http://vancouvercondo.info/wiki
October 30th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
"My son was working with a construction crew on the Olympic Village site and they were promised work;"
Next time get it in writing
October 30th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Raincouver, I think you missed the point of that post … points to the agenda of people shaping the real estate stories you are reading … it wasn't a listing tip…
October 30th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
From HouseHuntVictoria.blogspot.com
HEE HEE Why does this make me so gleeful?
Mr.4AM said…
David Said: "vg, that might also be a good reason for people to want to keep their money in a hard asset such as real estate. Stocks may drop 12% in a day but with real estate that would take a year."
You guys keep your money tied down to a depreciating asset in a currency that will do God only knows what.
Me, I'm staying partially in cash, partially in physical gold, and I'm seriously thinking of opening up a Forex account to play maybe 10% to 20% of my networth unleveraged on any very obvious plays.
The 27% decline in Canadian dollar (vs USD) in 1 month was a HUGE opportunity. And while it wasn't obvious to me on day 1, by day 3 or 4 it was a given it was going to continue for a while.
There's going to be some big opportunities in the forex markets in the next few months, but you can't play if your money is tied up in a depreciating house.
I also agree, any long term stock market "investments" are likely to get hammered. The long term investment days are over… for at least a year or two.
On another note…
Anybody catch what Porche did to VW stock? Shorts were betting VW was going down, along comes Porche and buys up a huge chunk of VW stock pushing the prices high very quick causing a MASSIVE short squeeze of several hedge funds. Long story short, Volkswagen stock QUINTUPLED (is that a word?) in 2 days, temporarily making VolksWagen the LARGEST company in the world by market cap" (some 326 Billion USD). The German stock market went up 10% in a single day while most others were down 5-8% on average. Next day? Porsche sells off a large chunk of the stock at peak price and walks off with Billions!
And you thought Porsche made their money in selling cars…Talk about insanity!
October 29, 2008 11:02 PM
October 30th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
"Canadian banks have become very tight on cash and their lending has dramatically changed," says Philip Pincus of Platinum Equities. The National Post writes that as many as 70% of Vancouver condo buyers in recent years were speculators, for example. "With credit tightening, some are so over-extended they cannot get mortgages, while others simply no longer want to take on units they committed to at the frothy prices of the past few years."
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mo…
let the uneducated realtors and specs who tried to price vancouverites out of vancouver eat ramen
burn baby burn
October 30th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
"I work close to the Olympic village construction. There are an aweful lot of empty holes in the ground in the blocks adjacent to the Millenium Water site. These are developments that were hoping to take advantage of the MW infrastructure work."
My son was working with a construction crew on the Olympic Village site and they were promised work; because there was going to be tower two, three, four, different phases, etc… you could have work for several years.
I knew that was bunk. Now it's all circling the drain…just like I knew it would.
October 30th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
a reporter who is currently trying to unload a $1.9 million property on the West Side.
Actually, I would say he’s trying to unload a $1.4 (more or less) million property for $1.9 mil – this just hasn’t dawned on him yet.
Gosh. That has everything to do with ordinary RE buyers. Thanks for bringing that up.
It's important that all of us keep our eyes open for a good million dollar deal.
Thanks for the heads-up. Surely, couldn't do without it.
October 30th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
JOB AVAILABLE:) Why not be an AUCTIONEER?
http://tinyurl.com/682syg
October 30th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Regarding the number of storage units parked around Kits — it's been all month long, just not around moving dates. When I sold recently, I rented one to put all my clutter in for staging purposes. I think that staging is becoming a necessity for any listing, and more people are getting hip to those handy storage boxes! From my experience, totally worth it, and hugely recommended. I also recommend that sellers get in their time machines and go back to June when there was a hope in hell of selling. Yay! Bring on the price drops!!
October 30th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Most fund managers, economists and analysts still want the public to believe that the US is not in a recession and that its housing situation is about to improve! Nothing could be further from the truth!…………..more
October 30th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Been updating the condo supply numbers on the wiki page. So far, for 2009, there are 3,551 new condo units scheduled to be completed just in downtown!
October 30th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Drachen:
My guess is its either they either sold, or can't afford the rent , can't afford the mortgage payment, or simply the usual mobility seeking new digs .
It's one of those interesting barometers that makes more sense as we get similar statistics and observations such as yours. Watch how many Budget and U-Haul trucks are on the street this weekend. ( Maybe go up to a few parties moving and asking them up front as to why they are moving and maybe where to ? )Then see if anyone is moving IN the newly vacated premises .
vancouverdentalreport.com » Blog Archive » Comment on BC House sales to plunge 28% by Brad Says:
October 30th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
[...] Read more: Comment on BC House sales to plunge 28% by Brad [...]
October 30th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Has anyone else noticed an abnormally high number of people moving this month? I live in Kits and I swear there's at least one unit on each block face that's moving out.
Perhaps with the lowered financial security people are moving to cheaper digs? Anyone else have theories? Perhaps it's just too small of a sample area.
October 30th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Here's a good one:
Story in Todays Province PG A 17
"Surrey faces lawsuit if center not finished"
http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html…
This is related to 2010 Olympics and an "Olympic volunteer training center" Surrey agreed to build . Apparently they signed the deal in MAY 2008 and are supposed to have it completed in February. However, they haven't even started yet.
It's UNbelievable re: the lack of transparency. It appears that even Surrey City Council never even saw the final agreement or the no-contest cause in it , whereby Surrey has effectively agreed to waive any legal defence if they fail to deliver. Why would you unilaterally waive ANY legal defence ? Surrey's own lawyers apparently approved this ?!?!?
It makes me wonder if Millenium Olympic Village is on the same shaky legal ground re due- diligence and taxpayers best interests being sold down the river .
Did all these wide – eyed idiots in power watch that notorious scene in the movie " DELIVERANCE" while they signed all these deals ?
October 30th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
"CAN'T WEST" Dips below a dollar. I guess their condo subsidiary companies are not doing to well. That will teach them for their biased spin doctoring.Guess I'll have to find something else to line the bird cage with.
October 30th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
On the labour front, low-wage manual jobs are getting hit VERY hard. It's really night and day compared to summer of last year. It's now difficult to find an entry level position if you can't speak english and don't have a strong back.
As I said, expect significant rental vacancies and lower rents on the private basement suite market, starting in a few months. My prediction of a two-leg down might blend into a continuous crash, with rent and price crashing simultaneously.
October 30th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
NO-LYMPICS: No-problem
I have felt our building (next door) shake twice today, that's 2 explosions. They've got whalers up in the corners on the west side of the property. Oh… I hear the horns going, that means another blast is coming.
From here it looks and feels like they're working away just like they had been before they halted work. If that changes, I'll post on here.
Off-topic, front page of the Sun Section B, I believe, big chart with sales and prices and their conservative perdictioins. It's an everyday thing now with the MSM.
October 30th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Twarog's web site has an alternate url (although it's missing some functionality).
http://jstarventures.com/
October 30th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
The only thing one of Twarog's co workers could think of, regarding his name being pulled from his own website, was that he may have run into licensing issues and be temporarily suspended, and that is why it only shows Sonja and Wayne's names.
It sucks because Twarogs site was a great reference tool.
October 30th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
a reporter who is currently trying to unload a $1.9 million property on the West Side.
Actually, I would say he's trying to unload a $1.4 (more or less) million property for $1.9 mil – this just hasn't dawned on him yet.
October 30th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
What's really interesting about that Globe puff piece on Rennie that quotes him pushing people to by now instead of waiting until 2015 is who wrote it — a reporter who is currently trying to unload a $1.9 million property on the West Side.
Puts that piece in a whole new light, doesn't it?
October 30th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
I work close to the Olympic village construction. There are an aweful lot of empty holes in the ground in the blocks adjacent to the Millenium Water site. These are developments that were hoping to take advantage of the MW infrastructure work.
Most of them started digging a few months ago but there has been no activity in most of them for a few weeks. One of them has a sign that says "for lease: outdoor storage or parking lot".
I don't know if these count as "stalled" or not, but it looks like there will be a lot of eyesores in the vicinity of Olympic-ville come 2010.
October 30th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Bdk,
He will not back you up for next few hours reason?is that you at #45?
October 30th, 2008 at 11:50 am
This is all true I think buying real estate now is a great idea!
Perhaps now that the line of business I work in is tanking I can go work in the warehouse?
Are they hiring SATV?
October 30th, 2008 at 11:39 am
Finally
I wanted to withdraw all my statements against real estate i also ask for my appology to advice people to invest in stock market please forgive me if i ever say that rent won't support housing further.i was shocked wwhen rents have been tripled since i am here with my math honours and bussiness diploma i thought i was able to teach people about not to buy leaky condo but i have learned my self otherway around that any leak is part of nature when ever it occur we must fix that as we human always go to doctors hospital so does leaky condo need a professional eye to take care of leak every day.i won't take your too much valuable time the only thing i want to mention specially to vancouverites "please do not waste your hard earning dollars on assets that does not creat job market"so please invest your hard earn dollar on real estate where every single sale of unit atleast creat jobs and keep the life going please learn from my experience the one and only slogan that you could also come together and say" Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down".-Vancouverites.
October 30th, 2008 at 10:55 am
ex-coal harbour resident,
I just made a bunch of changes to the condo supply table. I don't see some of your changes, did they get messed up?
October 30th, 2008 at 10:36 am
I heard that they'll just fill the hole by building a parkade on the Ritz site but the building is off the table for now.
Time will tell if I have an accurate source.
October 30th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Vansanity:
Keep us informed on the Ritz Carlton:
The owner bragged that they are self financed, so they may be immune from the credit crunch ie Ritz Carlton may be an anomaly in red ink tsunanmi elsewhere .
There may be many other reasons the excavation work has continued. If they are going to exacavate at all,they better start now before the monsoon season hits, otherwise much more difficult to work in .
If the cement forms start going up , then I'll believe its a " go" .
October 30th, 2008 at 10:22 am
In the 7 years I have been in this business one of the most frustrating aspect has been the passiveness of the general consumer when they have been mistreated/wronged/incompetently represented/…. by a realtor. I hear it from new clients who ditched their previous realtor. When I suggest that they pursue the matter with the Real Estate Office and the Real Estate Board they murmur that they will but they don't.
This is in my mind, one of the biggest problems in this industry because we are self regulated. As such, we depend on the consumer to alert us to wrong doings/bad service/etc. in order to act on it.
As for me, I have been involved in numerous complaints/confrontations on behalf of my clients where warranted. But alas, I am but one person in this huge industry. Sorry if it sounds like a rant.
So, if you feel that you have been mistreated/misrepresented/wronged please report it and don't just make it known on a blog!!! Trust me, the good realtors out there will thank you for it. I know I will. Cheers!
October 30th, 2008 at 10:18 am
West Pender Place
October 30th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Twarog might be exiting….
It appears it's just Wayne and Sonja on that site now and they'll be back up and running in a few weeks, they might have changed franchises within remax too (weren't they at the beach ave location before? now it says Fairview). I'll be having lunch with a remax agent today so I'll ask him.
There is another construction site that hasn't had any activity lately, it's on the NW corner of Broughton and Pender, it used to be a low rise commercial building, it's adjacent to the "Dockside" project.
The name will come to me…
October 30th, 2008 at 10:09 am
CarlK it's probably just part of the market cycle changing a phase that has to be gone through. There is going to be negative feeling towards somebody as the market turns. Unfortunately it's going to be real estate agents they are the ones with the face closest to the deal.
There are a number of factors that I think play into this.
The PR and Marketing of the image of real estate agents is really poor. The national campaign that asks "why us a real estate agent" and portrays people who would not as chest waxing rubes of questionable sexuality is just offensive.
Insulting potential clients may work at the Elbow Room but I think it's a grave misstep for a profession association.
Many agents market their face on a billboard and in print. Personifying the real-estate deal is fine on the way up but you're the one in the buyers mind on the way down.
A number of local agents tied with organized crime certainly makes the case for some really bad apples.
Add to this forecasts about the market that are based on nothing but wishes and people are left with the distinct feeling that they are being lied to. You had to confront Mr. Muir good on you but even you don't believe him.
I think a negative view of Real Estate agents is completely natural at this point. In fact things are going to have to get worse before they get better for the image of agents.
I will say I've used Real estate agents in the past and they worked for their money and I appreciated the work they did for me. I am sure that you are a good guy and have a spotless record.
Agents like you should be spitting mad at the sleaze balls and phonies. You should be throwing chairs at general meetings, there should be black eyes and heads rolling.
October 30th, 2008 at 10:08 am
Anybody know what is up with this?
http://www.lestwarog.com/
All Twarog's sites have been down for the past two weeks or so. I thought he was a relative high-flyer. Looks like times are grim in the realtor community when you can't even pay your ISP…
October 30th, 2008 at 10:04 am
added a few buildings to the wiki list, the ones I would pass on my four block walk to work. West Pender Place, Flatiron, The Ritz, Fairmont Pacific, Harbour Green II, Harbour Greet III. Be great if someone can fill in the unit counts…
October 30th, 2008 at 9:49 am
the Ritz-Carlton appears to be back on track.
Excellent, pile on the inventory, it would also be nice to have a hulking half finished concrete and steel memorial to the late great Housing Bubble in such a high profile location. It would be much more dignified than a hole in the ground, Vancouver deserves better!
October 30th, 2008 at 9:47 am
Re: Ritz Carlton – there's a thread about it on the skyscraperpage forum (lots of koolaid drinkers there btw) – the story now is that the neighbouring site is suing holborn for trespassing – something to do about a crane setup etc. So they had to stop work and do some redesign.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:34 am
I really enjoy this blog and others which exposes what is really happening in the market. However, I am getting tired of all the realtor bashing that happens indiscriminately. Don't get me wrong, I am sure there many bad experiences with realtors of questionable intent and/or qualifications but I think that the majority of realtors from my experience are well intentioned and qualified.
Yes, I am a realtor and am proud of my track record with my client network which I had built based on trust, integrity, honesty and good service. When general negative statements are made about us we can't help but take it somewhat personally. If a negative comment is to be made please try to put it into proper context. In every industry, there will always be "bad" apples bar none.
For the record, when Cameron Muir was on CKNW denying that our mortgage market was totally different from the US subprime, it was I who confronted him and begged to differ.
Previous to being a realtor, I was a residential and commercial mortgage lender and still have strong ties in the financial industry.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:07 am
I think someone else mentioned this, just in case, the Ritz-Carlton appears to be back on track. Last couple days Bel-Pacific has returned to site, conducting further blasting and excavating.
Maybe they were pressured by presale buyers to get on with it, who knows, but they said it wasn't financing, and the work commencing again is consistent with that.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:03 am
This story is on CondoHype:
Re Bob Rennie
Globe and Mail Sept. 12, 2008 (last month ! )
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGA…
Quite interesting, it almost seems on par with a person on the Titanic, all is well, the looming iceberg is still a whole mile away , then BOOM and everyone saying " WTF was that "!!!
In hindsite, I think a lot of realtors can trace their professional demise(aka starvation ) to this condo mess , which arose from what this Bob Rennie article reveals re: how the product (condos) was pimped.
Most of this was speculation-based sales, which gave a false sense of the true market,and encouraged more speculation – based building, all adding up to a recipe for a predictable oversupply and concurrent collapse in both sales and subsequently prices.
October 30th, 2008 at 7:27 am
The Bust will come just the same, but they will still forecast a recovery in Spring of 20xx.
As long as you can leave TWO x's in the date, you'll be either correct or at the very worst, long dead by the time you're proven wrong!
October 30th, 2008 at 7:18 am
NDP took 2 ridings in the by election….
oh to be a fly on the wall at Gordos' breakfast meeting this morning…..
Beware the Ides of May/09
October 30th, 2008 at 5:33 am
Freako:
"How many myths do us long time bears have to endure?
The soft landing one is finally gone.
The B.C. economy is immune is gone.
Speculation in the market is gone.
I can’t wait for “no speculative lending” in Vancouver myth to die an ugly death."
How about this one:
One of Muir's favourite:
"Unlike the US, BC household's balance sheets are in good shape"
My guess is that Tsur and Muir will get on the frequent guest list on the Bill Good show.
The message will be repetitive, and along the lines of that when Bill bought his first home it seemed a budget stretch, but in the long run it has paid off.
Buy, Buy, Buy now before the next leg up, because they don't make anymore land in the Best Place on Earth, and that after the Olympics many people will come.
The Bust will come just the same, but they will still forecast a recovery in Spring of 20xx.
October 30th, 2008 at 2:49 am
Anon 44 – you're right, my mistake chart is on sales not prices. My mind's been turned into mush following the US election. I'm just glad our election came and went. 20 months of campaigning?
Anyway, you're right, we are off the charts, same rhetoric from the talking heads.