The CIBC economic forecasting dartboard hasn’t been remarkably accurate lately, so I’m not sure how to take this most recent prediction from Benjamin Tal who believes ‘a gradual slide’ over the next 8 to 10 months will see house prices across Canada drop another 5 or 10 percent.
Sales activity will also drop by an average of about 20 per cent from current levels before stabilizing near the end of 2009, Mr. Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc., said in an interview after his speech Tuesday before an income fund industry conference.
By this time next year the market will level off as conditions in the Canadian economy stabilize, he said. However Canadians shouldn’t be waiting for a “V-shaped recovery,” at that point, but instead should expect both home prices and sales to remain relatively flat, he added.
“What we are saying is that prices will continue to ease in the coming months, but there will be no U.S.-style freefall,” Mr. Tal said.
Canada should be in buyers’ market territory by late 2008 or early 2009 for the first time since 2001, he added.
Of course that’s the prediction for all of Canada – in western cities like Vancouver, Mr. Tal says that prices are likely to fall double digits by the end of 2009… So I guess thats anywhere between 10% and 99%? Thanks CIBC!