CIBC: Canadian housing market predictions

The CIBC economic forecasting dartboard hasn’t been remarkably accurate lately, so I’m not sure how to take this most recent prediction from Benjamin Tal who believes ‘a gradual slide’ over the next 8 to 10 months will see house prices across Canada drop another 5 or 10 percent.

Sales activity will also drop by an average of about 20 per cent from current levels before stabilizing near the end of 2009, Mr. Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc., said in an interview after his speech Tuesday before an income fund industry conference.

By this time next year the market will level off as conditions in the Canadian economy stabilize, he said. However Canadians shouldn’t be waiting for a “V-shaped recovery,” at that point, but instead should expect both home prices and sales to remain relatively flat, he added.

“What we are saying is that prices will continue to ease in the coming months, but there will be no U.S.-style freefall,” Mr. Tal said.

Canada should be in buyers’ market territory by late 2008 or early 2009 for the first time since 2001, he added.

Of course that’s the prediction for all of Canada – in western cities like Vancouver, Mr. Tal says that prices are likely to fall double digits by the end of 2009… So I guess thats anywhere between 10% and 99%?  Thanks CIBC!

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Sean
Sean
11 years ago

WOW! I have followed several threads from Oct until now! how interesting it is to see the changing opinions and "fear factor" at work! as well as the constant blundering of both American and Canadian governments!

honestly! if anyone had "ANY" idea of what is happening or what will happen in the future, they would surely make a ton of money! what I see, especially in southern Ontario, is a complete restructuring of not just the economy in general but a complete restructure of the manufacturing industry!

kinda sounds to me like crossing the ocean in a canoe!

Raincouver
Raincouver
11 years ago

Looks like the wealthy are still doing fine. Vancouver luxury sales up 5% over last year.

Why do people post this stuff? The rich have always taken care of themselves. It's not new.

pphhfftt.

crabman
11 years ago

Looks like the wealthy are still doing fine. Vancouver luxury sales up 5% over last year.

The RE/MAX Upper-End Report, which highlights trends and developments in 15 housing markets across the country for the first seven months of 2008 found Vancouver, Victoria, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa, Halifax-Dartmouth, and St. John’s all experienced an upswing in sales activity…“In two-thirds of the markets we surveyed, demand for upscale homes surpassed peak levels reported last year,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada.

Big Crash
Big Crash
11 years ago

Does anybody know how Home Depot and other home improvement centres in Canada are doing in term of sales?

richard
richard
11 years ago

our banks don't need help but… reminds me of the credit facility the fed put up in the US which they weren't going to use but ended up using anyway… hope that's not the case here

jesse
jesse
11 years ago

Man that -20 text is small. The tribe has spoken.

freako
freako
11 years ago

I’ll be sipping tequillas down in Mexico with the rest of the bulls.

Sipping tequilas? Yech.

Keeping an eye on th
11 years ago

There were 1,301 people behind on their mortgage payments in July, up from 702 people a year earlier.

A real estate expert believes there is no need to panic.

Don Campbell, president of Alberta Real Estate Investment Network, said the number is relatively small, making up 0.28 per cent of the 471,913 mortgages across Alberta.

http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story

There you have it,yestereday Rennie told us not to worry and now the great Don Campbell( an expert) says don't panic.

If I hear the same thing in the next couple of days from another authority such Muir or Pastrick, I am going to buy!

VHB
VHB
11 years ago

@52:

Guilty!!!

bdk
bdk
11 years ago

Strataman, what if CIBC sells to Manulife?

John
John
11 years ago

You're all just cheering for a collapse. Enjoy your declining stock portfolios and your new carbon tax. I'll be sipping tequillas down in Mexico with the rest of the bulls.

Strataman
Strataman
11 years ago

John Said! "Actually if you read up on the situation to the south it was mostly caused by lose lending practices backstopped by the federal government via Freddie and Fannie." Yep you right, and guess what? There is a secret Canadian Bank that will go under too? Which one? CIBC CIBC but just a bit before them Van City! Bets anyone just my opinion but I know these two really well and they cannot take a downturn in Real Estate in Vancouver, (Van City) and they are way more invested in US paper then they say! CIBC So Bet's? $20.00 limit you buy for me or I buy for you. Set up the tab at a local pub, you bet against me and win, HA HA HA, I say to your choice of pub this is for (web name) whenever… Read more »

punface
punface
11 years ago

I do believe Canada is in better shape than most other countries, and will be in less pain during the next few years as a result.

This doesn't help Vancouver real estate at all though. It was the most overvalued on the planet and will fall the most as a result.

Anonymous
Anonymous
11 years ago

I blame VHB for this market downturn. From what I recall he started this whole 'fundamentals' thing that's become all the rage.

ReductiMat
11 years ago

John, even though your tone has changed somewhat, I still think you are being disingenuous and facetious so I'll keep my reply simple.

I am completely at a loss if you feel our present minority government is the reason for the forecast conclusions of this report. It's not the NeoCon's fault, it's not the Liberal's fault, it's OUR FAULT. YOU. ME. EVERYONE. We are all along for the ride. Sure, we can elect some fuckwit like Bush to really put us under, but it takes a special sort of populace to do that (granted, we do seem to be heading down that path).

Regardless, until we go back to living on the money we earn, we are in for shit.

TANSTAFFL.

Mold City
Mold City
11 years ago

John, this is a whole new side of you! Regarding Flaherty: Oh Goody! We have a politicians word on something.. reminds me of what Paulson said when he was sworn in as US treasury secretary in 2006:

Paulson said he planned to expand trade and investment, modernize international financial markets and"be vigilant in identifying and managing potential financial vulnerability."

http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2006Jul10/0,4670,Pau

Halloween is coming up soon, I wonder if Flaherty has any special plans?

Mold City
Mold City
11 years ago

Check out how bad things are getting in the UK:

http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=

😀

john
john
11 years ago

ReductiMat Dion is blathering on about the financial crisis not the housing market. Read the article about Flaherty's actions to ensure Canada was set on the course it is today. The IMF has just said Canada will fare the best of all the G7 nations thanks to the actions of this government. The green shaft will doom us to follow in Europe's footsteps. Have a look at how their carbon tax regime is going.

ReductiMat
11 years ago

Harper's "plan" is akin to rearranging the chairs on the deck of the titanic.

The only feasible plan is to let the market do its work and have home prices revert to the mean. Any attempts to prop it up are futile at best and will only prolong the inevitable. A gnat on a horses ass will have a greater impact than this $5,000 program.

The sooner we as a people accept that fact, the sooner we'll be at the end of all this shit.

Clam Chowderhear
Clam Chowderhear
11 years ago

Have to agree the Cons have the best plan, not sure what the opposition is trying to do by fear mongering, just state your plans and let the public decide. All the unfounded misinformation just makes them come off as sounding uneducated. It was only two months ago how they were shouting we were back in a defecit but when the numbers came out last month that we have a $2.9Billion dollar surplus after the 1st fiscal quarter they don't bring that up.

Back to housing, don't think the $5K on closing fees for 1st time buyers is going to buy too many votes, but I think it's a decent idea. If it was done with the market was hot it would've helped drive prices further up by that amount, but implemented during a down cycle makes fiscal sense.

john
john
11 years ago

Oh and here's what Flaherty has to say :

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/513979. The conservatives have been executing their plan for like a year. They don't need to have a meeting to come up with a plan because the plan is already being executed.

john
john
11 years ago

Liberals ran a surplus thanks to the GST revenue and cuts to transfer payments. It was really good politics for sure because the conservatives got blamed for the GST and the provinces got stuck with cutting the programs.

As for crisis I don't see one in this country inspite of Dion hoping for one. The really interesting thing is Dion is saying we have a crisis and his plan is to have a meeting for 30 days and plan what to plan. Harper's plan is to stay the course and the course looks pretty good.

crabman
11 years ago

From ReductiMat's link:

George Bush 2004 said:

"One other thing I've done, is I've called on private sector mortgage banks and banks to be more aggressive about lending money to first-time home buyers."

Stephen Harper last month said:

"A re-elected Conservative government would offer first-time homebuyers a new tax credit of up to $5,000 to help cover closing costs."

Sigh…

Aleks
Aleks
11 years ago

The Liberals ran surplus budgets and paid down the debt for a decade. Harper has been spending like a sailor on shore leave to try to buy himself a majority with public money. I'm not a huge fan of Dion, but I think it's pretty clear these Conservatives are not fiscally conservative. If Harper really was the one to deal with this crisis, he had two years to do something before it became a crisis.

Vansanity
Vansanity
11 years ago

Good links ReductiMat! That's about as clearly as I've seen anyone explain the US's situation.

And yes, I don't care much for John's tone in that last post. You got some splainin' to do.