CIBC: Canadian housing market predictions
The CIBC economic forecasting dartboard hasn’t been remarkably accurate lately, so I’m not sure how to take this most recent prediction from Benjamin Tal who believes ‘a gradual slide’ over the next 8 to 10 months will see house prices across Canada drop another 5 or 10 percent.
Sales activity will also drop by an average of about 20 per cent from current levels before stabilizing near the end of 2009, Mr. Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc., said in an interview after his speech Tuesday before an income fund industry conference.
By this time next year the market will level off as conditions in the Canadian economy stabilize, he said. However Canadians shouldn’t be waiting for a “V-shaped recovery,” at that point, but instead should expect both home prices and sales to remain relatively flat, he added.
“What we are saying is that prices will continue to ease in the coming months, but there will be no U.S.-style freefall,” Mr. Tal said.
Canada should be in buyers’ market territory by late 2008 or early 2009 for the first time since 2001, he added.
Of course that’s the prediction for all of Canada – in western cities like Vancouver, Mr. Tal says that prices are likely to fall double digits by the end of 2009… So I guess thats anywhere between 10% and 99%? Thanks CIBC!
November 24th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
WOW! I have followed several threads from Oct until now! how interesting it is to see the changing opinions and "fear factor" at work! as well as the constant blundering of both American and Canadian governments!
honestly! if anyone had "ANY" idea of what is happening or what will happen in the future, they would surely make a ton of money! what I see, especially in southern Ontario, is a complete restructuring of not just the economy in general but a complete restructure of the manufacturing industry!
kinda sounds to me like crossing the ocean in a canoe!
October 9th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Looks like the wealthy are still doing fine. Vancouver luxury sales up 5% over last year.
Why do people post this stuff? The rich have always taken care of themselves. It's not new.
pphhfftt.
October 9th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Looks like the wealthy are still doing fine. Vancouver luxury sales up 5% over last year.
The RE/MAX Upper-End Report, which highlights trends and developments in 15 housing markets across the country for the first seven months of 2008 found Vancouver, Victoria, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa, Halifax-Dartmouth, and St. John’s all experienced an upswing in sales activity…“In two-thirds of the markets we surveyed, demand for upscale homes surpassed peak levels reported last year,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada.
October 9th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Does anybody know how Home Depot and other home improvement centres in Canada are doing in term of sales?
October 8th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
our banks don't need help but… reminds me of the credit facility the fed put up in the US which they weren't going to use but ended up using anyway… hope that's not the case here
October 8th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
Man that -20 text is small. The tribe has spoken.
October 8th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
I’ll be sipping tequillas down in Mexico with the rest of the bulls.
Sipping tequilas? Yech.
October 8th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
There were 1,301 people behind on their mortgage payments in July, up from 702 people a year earlier.
A real estate expert believes there is no need to panic.
Don Campbell, president of Alberta Real Estate Investment Network, said the number is relatively small, making up 0.28 per cent of the 471,913 mortgages across Alberta.
http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story…
There you have it,yestereday Rennie told us not to worry and now the great Don Campbell( an expert) says don't panic.
If I hear the same thing in the next couple of days from another authority such Muir or Pastrick, I am going to buy!
October 8th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
@52:
Guilty!!!
October 8th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Strataman, what if CIBC sells to Manulife?
October 8th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
You're all just cheering for a collapse. Enjoy your declining stock portfolios and your new carbon tax. I'll be sipping tequillas down in Mexico with the rest of the bulls.
October 8th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
John Said! "Actually if you read up on the situation to the south it was mostly caused by lose lending practices backstopped by the federal government via Freddie and Fannie."
Yep you right, and guess what? There is a secret Canadian Bank that will go under too? Which one? CIBC CIBC but just a bit before them Van City! Bets anyone just my opinion but I know these two really well and they cannot take a downturn in Real Estate in Vancouver, (Van City) and they are way more invested in US paper then they say! CIBC So Bet's? $20.00 limit you buy for me or I buy for you. Set up the tab at a local pub, you bet against me and win, HA HA HA, I say to your choice of pub this is for (web name) whenever he or she comes in in the next week. June 30th 2009 is the target! Okay? Alternatives readily accepted! Don't con out cause its not enuff, just say sorry can't do that cause I may need that $20.00 for food!
October 8th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
I do believe Canada is in better shape than most other countries, and will be in less pain during the next few years as a result.
This doesn't help Vancouver real estate at all though. It was the most overvalued on the planet and will fall the most as a result.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
I blame VHB for this market downturn. From what I recall he started this whole 'fundamentals' thing that's become all the rage.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
John, even though your tone has changed somewhat, I still think you are being disingenuous and facetious so I'll keep my reply simple.
I am completely at a loss if you feel our present minority government is the reason for the forecast conclusions of this report. It's not the NeoCon's fault, it's not the Liberal's fault, it's OUR FAULT. YOU. ME. EVERYONE. We are all along for the ride. Sure, we can elect some fuckwit like Bush to really put us under, but it takes a special sort of populace to do that (granted, we do seem to be heading down that path).
Regardless, until we go back to living on the money we earn, we are in for shit.
TANSTAFFL.