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October 8th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
John, this is a whole new side of you! Regarding Flaherty: Oh Goody! We have a politicians word on something.. reminds me of what Paulson said when he was sworn in as US treasury secretary in 2006:
Paulson said he planned to expand trade and investment, modernize international financial markets and”be vigilant in identifying and managing potential financial vulnerability.”
http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2.....ry,00.html
Halloween is coming up soon, I wonder if Flaherty has any special plans?
October 8th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Check out how bad things are getting in the UK:
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....2&t=79
October 8th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
ReductiMat Dion is blathering on about the financial crisis not the housing market. Read the article about Flaherty’s actions to ensure Canada was set on the course it is today. The IMF has just said Canada will fare the best of all the G7 nations thanks to the actions of this government. The green shaft will doom us to follow in Europe’s footsteps. Have a look at how their carbon tax regime is going.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Harper’s “plan” is akin to rearranging the chairs on the deck of the titanic.
The only feasible plan is to let the market do its work and have home prices revert to the mean. Any attempts to prop it up are futile at best and will only prolong the inevitable. A gnat on a horses ass will have a greater impact than this $5,000 program.
The sooner we as a people accept that fact, the sooner we’ll be at the end of all this shit.
October 8th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Have to agree the Cons have the best plan, not sure what the opposition is trying to do by fear mongering, just state your plans and let the public decide. All the unfounded misinformation just makes them come off as sounding uneducated. It was only two months ago how they were shouting we were back in a defecit but when the numbers came out last month that we have a $2.9Billion dollar surplus after the 1st fiscal quarter they don’t bring that up.
Back to housing, don’t think the $5K on closing fees for 1st time buyers is going to buy too many votes, but I think it’s a decent idea. If it was done with the market was hot it would’ve helped drive prices further up by that amount, but implemented during a down cycle makes fiscal sense.
October 8th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Oh and here’s what Flaherty has to say :
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/513979. The conservatives have been executing their plan for like a year. They don’t need to have a meeting to come up with a plan because the plan is already being executed.
October 8th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Liberals ran a surplus thanks to the GST revenue and cuts to transfer payments. It was really good politics for sure because the conservatives got blamed for the GST and the provinces got stuck with cutting the programs.
As for crisis I don’t see one in this country inspite of Dion hoping for one. The really interesting thing is Dion is saying we have a crisis and his plan is to have a meeting for 30 days and plan what to plan. Harper’s plan is to stay the course and the course looks pretty good.
October 8th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
From ReductiMat’s link:
George Bush 2004 said:
“One other thing I’ve done, is I’ve called on private sector mortgage banks and banks to be more aggressive about lending money to first-time home buyers.”
Stephen Harper last month said:
“A re-elected Conservative government would offer first-time homebuyers a new tax credit of up to $5,000 to help cover closing costs.”
Sigh…
October 8th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
The Liberals ran surplus budgets and paid down the debt for a decade. Harper has been spending like a sailor on shore leave to try to buy himself a majority with public money. I’m not a huge fan of Dion, but I think it’s pretty clear these Conservatives are not fiscally conservative. If Harper really was the one to deal with this crisis, he had two years to do something before it became a crisis.
October 8th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Good links ReductiMat! That’s about as clearly as I’ve seen anyone explain the US’s situation.
And yes, I don’t care much for John’s tone in that last post. You got some splainin’ to do.
October 8th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Use preview or check html. I don’t learn.
Enjoy your carbon taxes you idiots.
A lash-out from John? Does this mean all your posts, previously taken as rather clumsy but good-natured satire, were serious?
October 8th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
iEnjoy your carbon taxes you idiots.
A lash-out from John? Does this mean all your posts, previously taken as rather clumsy but good-natured satire, were serious?
October 8th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
John, if there’s one thing to take away through all of this, don’t cite the mainstream media as a viable source.
Start here. Then go and read this.
October 8th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Actually if you read up on the situation to the south it was mostly caused by lose lending practices backstopped by the federal government via Freddie and Fannie. It was government intervention which lead to this mess and government intervention is going to make it worse. Enjoy your carbon taxes you idiots. I’m off to Mexico.
October 8th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Oh boy, this is fun. I normally wouldn’t wipe my ass with the Vancouver Sun, but I am enjoying scanning the business pages for the articles on the economy and the housing market. They finally discovered that the emperor had no clothes. Years too late. Of course, there is still a lot of obsfuscation going on. (ie: ‘but canada’s economy is sound, our banks our sound, and our real estate market is sound). However, it is still nice to see the 180 degree reversal. Now if they would just call out Rennie and the rest of the pimps.
October 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
John, you’re never serious. Do we really want a government that emulates every mistake they’ve made to our south? The conservative and Neo-Con movements and their obsessive need to de-regulate and cut taxes on all big business is the ultimate cause of the problems we’re facing today. What’s Harper’s solution to the problems? Deregulation and tax cuts for big business.
October 8th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Have you seen the cover of the Vancouver Sun’s Business section today? Clearly the Vancouver real estate market is toast.
With so much public discussion about the precarious nature of the overall real estate market it will be a wonder if there are any buyers out there at all. Who has the guts to try and catch a falling knife.
October 8th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Guys I’m serious. It looks like an alliance of Jack/Stephanne/Gille will rule Canada during these tumultuous times. We’re about to see just how bad it can get. Canada will get the government it deserves.
October 8th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Yesterday I happened to be watching BBC news (live market analysis from HK) and just wondering…
Some folks here were puffing about “Rich Asians” who gonna save Van. With Asian markets double digits down and no light at the end of the tunnel, would it be natural for them to start shorting on used-to-be-save investments in RE-Van-haven to cover losses on Asian markets? Would their offsprings start feeling pocket cash shortage? Maybe BMW dealers could start building up inventory of barely used vehicles?
October 8th, 2008 at 9:42 am
The U.S. housing collapse was a crisis brought on by overuse of subprime mortgages.
Wrong. The US housing collapse was a result of prices being too high. Prices were inflated, and are collapsing, in areas which had few to no subprime mortgages (borrowers with a low credit rating).
If house prices rise above a level that cannot be supported by rents or buyers’ incomes, they must come down, regardless of how they were financed.
October 8th, 2008 at 9:33 am
If this analyst’s comments ring true, Vancouver RE can’t help but go into free fall:
From Bloomberg,
U.S. stocks are only “halfway through” a decline that sent the Standard & Poor’s Index down 36 percent in the past year, said Jeffrey de Graaf, a top-ranked market analyst.
….
“The first part is the unwind of the previous boom, the second is the recession that follows. …”
…
“Classic bear markets are 40 to 50 percent declines,” he said. “Generational leverage unwinds are much deeper.”
Very scary stuff.
October 8th, 2008 at 9:26 am
I wonder why I have no friends left? I tried to help them, really I did.
Similar experience with in-laws. Ironically, as they open their RRSP statements, they don’t remember anything I said and I just nod when they ask “Who coulda seen this coming?”
October 8th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Now that it appears as though a Layton / Dion government is in the cards I’ve decided to start selling my condos so I can move to Mexico where the living is cheap. As an added bonus all my SUVs will be gulping on cheap government subsidized gas.
October 8th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Brittanny: I got tired of yelling about CDS’s and the rest of the $500 trillion in various derivatives. My throat got sore, I was ridiculed and ignored. All I can say now to my few remaining friends is “Nyaa, nyaa, told you so! Opened your RRSP statement yet?”
I wonder why I have no friends left? I tried to help them, really I did.
Just kidding. I’m actually quite sympathetic, and try to resist gloating.
Sure is interesting times…..
October 8th, 2008 at 8:20 am
My phone bills are killing me!
October 8th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Lifted from THEBIGPICTURE.
CEO –Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO– Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET — A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET — A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING — The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO — The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER — What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR — Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST — Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT — When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER — A guy whose phone has been disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION — The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW — The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO — What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.
WINDOWS — What you jump out of when you’re the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR — Past year investor who’s now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT — An archaic word no longer in use.
October 8th, 2008 at 8:11 am
Some good nuggets from that article. First off, the article states “The U.S. housing collapse was a crisis brought on by overuse of subprime mortgages. Thus, Mr. Tal said, it’s important to remember that its peak risky mortgages made up 5 per cent of the market in Canada, compared with 33 per cent in the U.S.” But wait a sec, I thought we hear all along that there was NO subprime in Canada?
Second, if, as he predites, sales drop another 20% from where they are now (which is ~50% from prior periods), how can it be that sales that are running at ~40% of recent historical levels only bring moderate price decreases of 5-10%?
October 8th, 2008 at 7:54 am
In response to Randallbard 18
Chris posted this in response to another goldbug drumming up fear on Chipmans blog. It answers the point so well I’m just copying with credit. Perhaps Randallbard wants gold back up to where he put every last penny in?
Hurray, more disinformation!
I can buy a 1000g bar for USD$28,588.44 right now from Kitco. Yes this is the real deal, delivered to your door. Price changes every minute so it may not be exactly the same when you check it. 1000g is 32.15 troy ounces (ask google). That works out to $889.22 per troy ounce. This is only a $4/ounce premium over what the “paper gold” is trading at.
Of course if you are talking about canadian dollars then it’s closer to $1000/ounce, but still there is no major difference between paper and bullion prices.
October 8th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Michael, like real estate that we all focus on here, Gold goes up and down too. Although it tends to rocket up (and down) on a much tighter cycle than housing.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0365nyb_.html
Perhaps the paper we use to buy groceries will have a few more zero’s in them, but I don’t think we’ll have to resort to gold coins to buy bread (just yet!).
October 8th, 2008 at 7:38 am
yeah Dan! dont worry freako caught up in last stages of deflation bubble! tulip time while ignoring printing press being turn on! yeah and uhauls being loaded up in calgary to come to best place on earth! yeah when internet censors shrinking info you know bottom is in! ha ha
October 8th, 2008 at 6:47 am
Western markets down double digits by end of 2009? Vancouver will have it by end of November 2008. By the end of 2009, we will probably be down 25%, if not more.
Freako, I’ve always seen you as a tempered, not-prone-to-extremes kind of bear. If you’re saying 25%, then specuvestors otta be real scared. Maybe we’ll be able to move back to Vancouver after all.
October 8th, 2008 at 1:29 am
It’s a financial meltdown. The UK is partially nationalizing its 8 top banks:
“The Treasury said the banks are Abbey National PLC, Barclays PLC, HBOS PLC, HSBC Bank PLC, Lloyds TSB Bank PLC, Nationwide Building Society, Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Chartered Bank.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27078582/
October 8th, 2008 at 1:21 am
ANYBODY HERE HAVE GOLD?
It just hit $1,000.00 CAD at midnight
Oh and unfortunately for those who didn’t listen to me months ago, you cannot find a single ounce of gold in any of the coin and bullion dealers in Vancouver and other places in Canada. If you do happen upon some better buy it as its going to double from here…SOON
October 7th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
CIBC: Canada’s home of underwater structured assets.
October 7th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
Why is it that no one is talking about:
“CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS”
$75,000,000,000,000.00 (WORHTLESS PAPER)
$750,000,000,000.00 ( US BAILOUT)
YES, THAT IS $75 TRILLION. MORE THAN ALL THE PRINTED CURRENCY IN THE WORLD!
IF YOU THINK WALL STREET IS A SCANCDAL, IT IS NOTHING COMPARED TO THE “CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP” PYRAMID.
THIS WILL BECOME THE MOST TALKED ABOUT DERIVATIVE IN THE FUTURE OF YOUR CHILDREN AND GRANDCHILDREN. THIS IS THE “REAL” GLOBAL CRISIS. CDS’s – “CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP’S”
October 7th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Speaking of CIBC…
As per an internal memo, they’re canceling their “Better than Prime” mortgages (easily one of the most popular choices) tomorrow.
Can you bulls feel that noose start to tighten yet?
October 7th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Not so long ago those of us who were real estate bears were scoffed at. Now, we are seeing virtually daily news stories predicting that Canadian real estate is heading South.
Let Tal say what he wants, forecasters like Tal change their predictions with the weather. At least he has the overall direction right: DOWN.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
If I read that right he’s predicting that prices will fall that much further from where they are now, not from the peak.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Average prices in Vancouver are already down double digits: 13% to be exact. [source: REBGV September 2008 statistics]
October 7th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
25% and 40% are both double digit losses. Mr. Tal certainly has covered his bases with this prediction and I agree: house prices in Vancouver are set to fall somewhere between 10 and 99%.
Dave, I thought you were bullish on real estate?
October 7th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
CIBC (“Certified Inaccurate Bull Crap”) The US currently has a GDP of $13 Trillion, Canada’s GDP is $1.3 Trillion. Tal says Cannada will not have a US-stlye freefall. Sure our banks did not have sub-prime and credit was somewhat tighter. Not much though. We had the liar loans for the self employed, 40 year ams.,5% down payments and plenty of speculators buying additional spec properties and qualifying for them via a little fudging by their mortgage brokers.
If ANY country in the world will be affected by the US contagion it will be Canada.
Who does Tal think the biggest economy in the world buys their products from? One of them is Canada and another one is China ($6.5 Trillion GDP). That’s a double whammy for us.
To think that we will not feel the same pain as the US economy is just plain stupid.
Tal is just using the same spin as the US financial institutions did not long ago to try and keep shareholders and depositors as long as possible to fund the few at the top.
Harper’s ace up the sleeve is the same as George Bush’s.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Down 25% by the end of 2009 sounds a bit tame. The general public is only beginning to realize that the party is over, and the current rate of decline is bound to accelerate with recession jitters. If I had to make a guess, I would say down 40% by the end of 09.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
hey nutsnaps! glory days for bulls here now as coming printing press uptick unnoticed by general populas! next leg up will whiplash back like potash meltdown! browntown here to warning of keeping liquid for buyup while develepor scramble for finance! if you scared of printing press hit red arrow to see shrink age!
October 7th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Western markets down double digits by end of 2009? Vancouver will have it by end of November 2008. By the end of 2009, we will probably be down 25%, if not more.
October 7th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
I wonder if today’s RECESSION headline in the Sun will jolt a few more idiots into reality. We all know what recessions can do to RE, and this one will make 82 look like a picnic.
October 7th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
I agree with his assessment.
October 7th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
i believe that Tal is a smart person. That does not mean his studies are on target. I am a complete re bear. Housing prices will go down %50 inflation-adjusted based on average income, inflation, necessary household expenses. His study is based on non-factual data. did i mention “conflict of interest” issue here
from wikipedia:
“A conflict of interest is a situation in which someone in a position of trust, such as a lawyer, insurance adjuster, a politician, executive or director of a corporation or a medical research scientist or physician, has competing professional or personal interests.”
October 7th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Ant do a little researh on Tal.
Benjamin Tal, an economist with CIBC who has been following closely the ups and downs of the housing industry, said Wednesday he sees no “trigger” threatening Canada’s housing and mortgage market.
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Ca.....16-cp.html
October 7th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
I don’t get what your point is KAEOTP.. You think a prediction of double digit losses in the next 8 to 10 months is pimping? That wipes out all equity on houses where you put anything below 15% or so down on. I don’t think even a complete idiot could look at this forecast and think ‘hmm, that sounds like a good highly leveraged investment to make.
October 7th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Tal is a complete and utter fool. Or perhaps he may be heavily invested in RE and is simply pimping.
He does the usual media circuit, assuring the public that Canadians are not as indebted as the Americans.
He calculates the debt to asset ratio based on inflated RE,Tal is a lightweight loan pumping pusher.
His forecasting ability is as horrible as CMHC.