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October 7th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Country expected to ‘escape recession, but just barely,’ says senior economist
From later in the same article:
“…the U.S. economy is expected to start coming out of recession next Spring.”
LOL. Yah, right. If that’s what they’re predicating our ‘escape from recession’ on, then we’re toast.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:00 am
While not a left winger, I foresee a bit of an uprising by the BC citizens if this sort of crap continues. The Local Gov’ts are run in a bunker mentality ignorant and indifferent to their own constituents. When their own citizens cannot afford to live in the same City and possibly even the same Province….that basically implies a sell out to other interests with little if any stake in the community. Anytime I drive around at night and view these hi rises…the “no lights on” ie nobody home ratio must be about 10-1. Its no different than the stock market….simply speculation . I think the whole dam thing should collpase and we simply start over..
October 7th, 2008 at 8:43 am
In a recent article re: Toronto condo market, it noted a land shortage whereby builders who tradionally built low rise townhouses where literally forced to build hi-rises if they wished to stay in business.
This phenomenon is growing here in BC…but the problem is an instantaneous glut in the supply demand ratio can result . if one figures how mnay condo units each hi rise contains. Bob Rennie’s bio has him being one of the 1st to foresee this “condo’s are the future” but this will be a pattern for the future of boom- bust and equally greedy Local Gov’ts pimping building permits and all the revenues that result.
Once the economy tanks. the dominos fall and any hi rise project can go broke overnite
October 7th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Today’s Vancouver Sun. Big “R” on the front page. Story about Vancouver’s Olympic legacy at risk.
http://tinyurl.com/4x42zt
October 7th, 2008 at 8:24 am
The true facts here are this :
1) The olympics will be a huge success. This is the best place on earth afterall.
2) Vancouver condos are still a solid investment. The stock market is down over 30% on the year. Most bears have been wiped out. Bulls remain rich and will still rent to the bears if they’re nice.
3) I’m backing the bid
October 7th, 2008 at 7:51 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-oIMJMGd1Q
How do you make impending financial doom funny?
October 7th, 2008 at 7:29 am
What a scandal. What name should we call this new tax? Let’s have a contest. (#18)
How about Olympic Overrun Property Surcharge; or OOPS.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:12 am
Global ran a piece on this. NPA mayoral nominee / insurrection leader Peter Ladner says the city has made no commitment to intervene but will be there to “mitigate” any risks to the taxpayer. Thanks for looking out for me, Pete.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:03 am
Country expected to ‘escape recession, but just barely,’ says senior economist
Will the “experts” ever learn?
October 6th, 2008 at 11:55 pm
they may have to re-work the zoning on the olympic village land, forego the park, social housing component, increase the density, etc. now is not the time for civic idealism it appears.
October 6th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
That’s what happens when you overpay.
Millenium Group really needs better forecasters.
$193 million bid blows away competition:
http://tinyurl.com/3j59z3
My question is does that mean pre-sale purchasers are buying a lived-in condo?
I’d hate to be the guy purchasing the unit used by the US Men’s hockey team.
October 6th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
THe taxplayers who voted yes for olympics should get the bill
October 6th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Ah yes, reality bites. This Olympic Village was fishy from the start….the price paid was exhorbitant. I hope the whole thing crashes and burns, the whole Olympic endeavour disgusts me. My view is that the financing will dry up due to the global credit crunch …and the suckers that bought into these $1000 sq/ft pigeon holes will bail….the locale ain’t that great, so the price paid was already way over the top. However, how will Vancouver lose…didn’t they make a pile selling the land? PS Good comments by others, my compliments.
October 6th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
Patriotz, the downturn in the Calgary economy clearly had more to do with the oil market than the Olympics.
That was my point. As an economic stimulus the Olympics are at best useless, and at worst mire a city in long-term debt.
Anyone who thinks that the Olympics are in any way going to offset BC’s long-term problems with the forest industry and tourism (reduced US consumer spending) is nuts.
In any event, the fact that Vancouver voted for the Olympics does relieve city council from their fiduciary responsibility to voters to note give a sweet deal to a New York hedge fund.
That deal was made by the NPA-controlled council which was elected in 2005. Once again, you get what you vote for.
http://www.city.vancouver.bc.c.....eloper.htm
October 6th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
Hey stop this negativity; we still have the upcoming 2010 Olympic and the best place on earth to shield us from the recession. And Gordy Cambie…
October 6th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
We need to stop the fiction that the Calgary Olympics “made” money. The Olympics stuck Calgary with a ridiculous civic debt that took Ralph Klein’s successor years to dig out from.
The only way one can consider the Olympics to be break-even or better is by not counting most of the stuff that costs money.
The retards who voted for the 2010 games should get the bill for this. Not me.
October 6th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Patriotz, the downturn in the Calgary economy clearly had more to do with the oil market than the Olympics.
In any event, the fact that Vancouver voted for the Olympics does relieve city council from their fiduciary responsibility to voters to note give a sweet deal to a New York hedge fund.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Fortress is financing the project? Is that for real? You can’t make this stuff up… Vancouver is starting to sound like a Norwegian village with every passing day.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
I like the main stream media coverage of “expert” banking economists peddling their spin of “lets not alarm the general publics confidence” with such things as the “REALITY” of the actual global economic situation.
I am glad that we (the public) are always last to know the real situation so that these overpaid,underproductive, pompous, greedy, above the law, supposed intellectuals can bilk us out of our hard earned money leaving us scratching our heads wondering WTF happened.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
The Calgary experience? The 1988 games did absolute squat for the local economy or RE market, which did not truly recover until a decade afterward.
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/.....algary.pdf
Nor did the city or province undertake the level of infrastructure spending that we are seeing in Vancouver. An exception being the Saddledome which was needed for the Flames anyway.
SLC almost turned out to be a financial fiasco which had to be averted by Mitt Romney. And LA will be forever known as the McLympics – even the locals tried to ignore it.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Patriotz, I think people where hoping for better such as the Salt Lake City, LA or Calgary experience.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
The olympics, the housing boom, Campbell, COV, all linked up nicely here.
http://tinyurl.com/ys7eu2
All planned, taxpayer (ignorant and malleable as they are in aggregate) wrapped up and delivered. Media co-opted to held the show along. What chance does the public have when confronted by a co-ordinated attack like this?
October 6th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
The project is being financed by Fortress Investment Group, a hedge fund/private equity company based in New York.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.....s/1919496/
Oct 3 (Reuters) – Citigroup recommended that investors sell shares of E*Trade Financial Corp and Fortress Investment Group LLC, saying the companies may have huge portfolio losses and capital constraints as the credit crisis continues.
Analyst Prashant Bhatia said in a note to clients that he expects Fortress to run out of cash in the first quarter of 2009 and sees losses of $3.4 billion in E*Trade’s mortgage portfolio.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
That’s pretty naive. The Olympics are one of the original “privatize profits, socialize losses” scams and Canadians of all people should know this, given what happened in Montreal.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
I’ve mentioned on this site that the developer’s cost to build is NOT the driving force behind the actual selling price. The cost to build is only a small factor. The selling price is basically the maximum price that the developer and its marketing people can convince the public to pay. Developers have every right to charge as much as they possibly can for the finished product, irrespective of what it costs them to build it.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Patriotz,
I agree that Vancouverites voted in favour of the Olympics, but we didn’t vote in favour of providing a backstop to hedgefunds and developers so they could profit.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
“If Vancouver taxpayers want to know who to blame, they should look in a mirror.”
I think 60% should look in the mirror. The point about higher property taxes being negative for property prices is a good one but realistically other city services will suffer in the wake of this bad investment and everybody suffers.
I’m not sure how much the city will have to cover but it seems suspicious the developer is turning over its loans at the exact time credit is hard to come by. I don’t know the property development business well enough to comment whether this is normal practice.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Don’t worry I am here to fill everyone in with the real story. The development is not in financial trouble, the developer is not going to lose any money on this project. The issue at hand is credit drying up. The Developer needs X more dollars to finish the project, the credit market being what it is, only want’s to provide (worst case scenario) X-$100Million, (reality it’s closer to X-$45Million.
So the current situation is
A) Millennium takes there business elsewhere and tries to find a new creditor. Hard to do in the current marketplace, but apparently some Canadian financials are interested.
B) Millenium obtains a co-signer to guarantee the investment, ie the COV or the BC Government or another high profile development company.
The project stating it’s 60% is including that fact that none of the final phase has even starting selling yet. Fortress out of NY is worried that they won’t be able to sell hence their reservations of providing the credit needed to finish the development. Millenium isn’t worried about being able to turn a profit on the project, even if they were to lower the prices for the more desirable phase 3 they would still turn a profit. The only reason the COV is even involved at this stage is they provided a guarantee to the IOC on Olympic housing.
Here’s a tip expect a Canadian pension fund to pick up the financing at a slight discount as Fortress unloads the loan. The project will continue ahead as is.
October 6th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
I voted against it; lobbied all my friends to kill it. So why do I pay? Better idea add all overruns to Olympic tickets especially those with prime seats. For instance all A and B rows at opening ceremonies well they pay for the overrun?
October 6th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
If Vancouver taxpayers want to know who to blame, they should look in a mirror. City council held a plebiscite on the Olympics way back in 2003 and the voters had a chance to kill the games right there.
Oh property tax increases are negative for RE prices of course. Just ask Montreal.
October 6th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
“Just what those overruns are nobody is saying, although the number bandied about most is $100-million – one that was dismissed by the same source. “That is a worst-case-scenario number if everything [continues to go] wrong. But right now it’s not there, for sure.”
Does “worst case” include a RE bust as well as overruns?
October 6th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
The timing is not too good for the incumbent council who voted for this. Does anyone know where to find the minutes on who actually voted for the arrangement?
October 6th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
What a scandal. What name should we call this new tax? Let’s have a contest!
October 6th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
super-rennie doesnt even use a car anymore… he flys arround on realtor sign.
His superpowers include:
-Change old counter tops into granite upon touch
-Convert older condos into “executive” condos just by walking inside them
-His cape give him invisibility to bear-ish reporters
-Convert any 25 yr mortgage to a 40 yr one
October 6th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
bcubbins said “Only 60% sold!!!! I wonder how long it will take to sell the remainder?”
And how much of that 60% will back out before completion?
Noname
October 6th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Only 60% sold!!!! I wonder how long it will take to sell the remainder?
October 6th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
“and nails the perpetrators of the bubble to the wall.”
you wish. likely they’re walking away with lots of $$$. it’s the buyers who are going to take it up the @$$.
October 6th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
The world does not know where to put it’s money today. Under the matress is starting to look pretty good.
October 6th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
“But don’t fret, the absolutely ‘worst case scenario’ at this point looks like a $100 million dollar bill for Vancouver tax payers.”
Easy, just raise property taxes! Helps pop the bubble and nails the perpetrators of the bubble to the wall. Win/win scenario!
October 6th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Perhaps instead of the City, the super-realtor Rennie should bail them out. He can do anything!
October 6th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
LOL snark!
better yet:
“My backside hurts from the bid”
October 6th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
The land cost was the highest paid in Canada
This is exactly why local government should NOT be giving support or backing to projects like this. Who cares if you overpaid for the land as long as its taxpayers left holding the bag when your optimistic forecasts fall through?
October 6th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
At a population of about 612,000 people, that would be $163 for every man, woman, and child.
Do I make my check out to Bob Rennie?
October 6th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Markx, the development isn’t just residential. It also has commercial and retail.
Yes, the developer had planned to sell some of the better located units at or above $1000 per ft2. The land cost was the highest paid in Canada to date per ft2 of development space so $250 to $300 seems low to me.
October 6th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
OK, 1100 unit, at a cost of 1 billion, and you have cost overrun? Somehow 1 mil/unit is not enough to cover costs? Has these clowns considered the fact that this development is in North America, for just a second? Some people must really take “world class city” too literally. I wonder how big the units are. You know, at $1,000/sqft, the average unit would need to be 1,000 sqft. That seem to be on the generous side for a downtown development. Or does the green building standard and all the social housing pork really account for the high construction costs? Seems like the developer need AT LEAST $1000/sqft to break even. I give then $200 for land, $250 to 300 for market construction cost. Now where does the rest of the money go?
October 6th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
I’m bailing out the bid!
October 6th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Remember, just like with the US bailout, the taxpayer is NOT on the hook since after the markets return to fundamentals, there will be a profit to be made and the taxpayers will end up with more than what they put in…
…NOT.
Noname
October 6th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Bubble Lad, you don’t have to scrape it off, you just stick one of these over the top of it
http://vancouvercondo.info/images/backingaway.gif
October 6th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Unfortunately, Canada won’t be immune to the credit crisis. The credit crisis is working its way into the Canadian economy.
Our economy will head in the same direction as the U.S. economy and at this moment, Uncle Sam is headed downwards.
Specuvestors, you will all be in deep red ink and looking at a foreclosure sign soon unless you cut price agressively and sell before it’s too late.
October 6th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
I wonder how hard it is to scrape those “I BACKED THE BID” bumper stickers off your car…