Downtown westend condo market tracking
Recently we posted an updated spreadsheet compiled by YLTNboomerang that tracks downtown waterfront townhouse listings and price changes (here’s the original post). Monterey just wrote in that he’s doing the same thing for downtown westend condos listed under $650k and he’s made that data available to all of us here in this excel spreadsheet.
-click here to download the xls document-
Here’s Monterey’s comments on this data:
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.First, I want to thank fellow blogger YLTNBoomerang who inspired me to create this list. I live in the west end, and am interested in a two bedroom apartment. I don’t want to buy something and spend the rest of my life paying it off, so I have been looking at price ranges that I would consider affordable. $500K tops, plus a little cushion to follow the imminent downward trend, and my upper monitoring range is $650K.
Apologies if this is too low for some of you. If you load the spreadsheet, don’t get freaked out if Excel warns you about macros. No, the spreadsheet is not infected. If you want, you can enable or not the macros, it won’t affect the spreadsheet in any way. If you’re curious, I was attempting to automate the data gathering in the hopes of presenting a finished product to everyone here. Ideally you would have been able to supply the URL from the MLS site for the region you were interested in tracking, all you had to do was run the macro once a day to create the spreadsheet. I stopped because I think my ADD kicked in and decided it would take more time to develop the scripts to do that work than it would for me to run through it each day. But hey, if there are any developers out there who want to take a crack at it, be my guest!!
Here’s some commentary on the more extreme examples ou there in the marketplace…
1) V718784 – Apt #601 listed Jul 6 for 429K. Same building V734316 – Apt #501. Two items of note here: Typically a floor above fetches $2000 more; I’m always suspcious of units that are stacked one above the other for sale at the same time. Tells me that possibly that corner or side is leaky. V734316 I figure is in denial that the special assessment is going to hurt a lot. So he finally caves in, and tries to list at the same price as the guy above him. But the problem is, you’d think if V718784 wanted to really get out fast, the price would be lower than (moderately respectable) $487/sqft. But since the lowest priced unit on the list at $357/sqft hasn’t moved in almost 2 months, maybe these two sellers should shoot for $300/sqft?2) V712796 – A motivated Seller! Well, perhaps desperate. First listed on May 31 for $469,900, and after four price reductions, still on the market today at $445,000. I take it back. This seller is greedy and absolutely refuses to GIVE it away. The real kicker? The place is empty. That, or those are photo’s from when the owner bought it before moving a tenant in there! I figure I’ll be watching this one all the way down to about $256K (a generous $350/sqft).
3) V735829 – Brand new listing: 825sqft for a pricy 498,800, which works out to an above average $604/sqft. Hm. Oh, look, same building 8 floors below him sold after 44 days on the market at a listing price of $499K. And THAT person only sold after dropping from $518K. Is this proof in the assertion that prices in Vancouver are dropping? I dunno, I’m just a analytical sort, not an economist.
4) V716758 – An interesting story on this one. When I started on May 6, this one was listed at $499,900 and disappeared the next day. No idea how long it had been listed. It re-appeared on Jun 18 at 519K. Classic case of “Hmph, not selling at this price, I’ll mark the price up and people will have to get in before they can’t afford it anymore!” That didn’t last long. A month later, a price reduction to original listing price. Must not have had any nibbles because three weeks later there’s another 10K price drop. Any takers? Anyone? $578/sqft, c’mon, it’s a good price! Dropped another 30K mid-september and is now priced at the lower end of the $/sqft range. Not gonna move till it hits $350/sqft I bet.
5) The Barclay – Wow. What can I say here? The developer is either brain-dead, stubborn beyond all hell, or just plain unimaginably greedy. Has been on my radar since the day I started, and all of their units have not sold. In fact, they raised the prices on their townhomes $36K back in the end of May. What was already a pricy $680/sqft, jumped to an eyewatering $723/sqft. MOST EXPENSIVE square footage in the west-end! For a reno’d wood-frame ex-apartment building? No. Sorry. If anyone gets a haircut, I wish it most on this developer. Nay, I wish a long painful wretched existance in financial purgatory where he can be looked up in disdain by the tennants whom he probably forced into some equally despicable Hollyburn apartment. I vote this complex most likely to suffer a “mysterious fire” soon. Hopefully in the next 3 months — right around Christmas time when the poor sods who are living there now can get sympathetic help from strangers.
6) Last, but not least… MASS EXODUS FROM THE PALLISADES! 17 units so far went up for grabs at 1200 and 1288 Alberni street. 10 units available still! Priced in the mid $500/sqft to $650/sqft. I wonder what disaster has befallen this specuvestor infested pair of buildings. After being featured in TV movies, you’d think that would make it immune to price drops. No, my friends, the greed is well at hand in this asian-inspired building (1288…Good luck building!). Most investors are slowly dropping their prices. I like the example of V735627: Started out at $599K in May, and here we are in September asking $499K now. This seller is obviously chasing the market down… AND their translator hasn’t told him that potential buyers have to be made aware of any special assessments. C’est la vie! I predict the Pallisades, which is a fairly high quality building, to plateau around $375/sqft for 4 or 5 years after the market stops freefalling.
There are other interesting stories in the data if you are willing to look. Keep an eye on the SqFt tab as that will tell you the history of each address in the Westend since the start of this project if you check out the notes in the various columns. The price/sqft column is auto-formatted to indicate if a listed price is above (orange) or below (light green) the average price/sqft for all those properties that are not sold (s). (r) indicates a relist. This tab also lists other data: median price/sqft, min/max price/sqft, etc. Did you know that the average size of a 2 bedroom place in the west end is 898 sq/ft?
The SOLD tab lists all those properties I’ve assumed have sold, and have therefore removed from the ForSale tabs. If a property comes back on the market, I can reconstruct the price history from the SqFt tab and put it back int he ForSale tab. Makes for very interesting snap-shot view of price/listings movement for a single property if you zoom out and look at the entire spreadsheet!
I’m uncertain if I can continue this project. On Oct 2 the MLS website will be moving over to their google-maps based version. I like it because you are no longer restricted to a artificial boundary, but on the other hand, it makes this list invalid because I can’t focus on the WE anymore. In any event, the evidence is clear: the prices they are a’coming DOWN DOWN DOWN baby.
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Gadwin Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Downtown condos are just going to get wacked with the ongoing financial crisis and eventual economic downturn that is coming.
There is no safe haven for real estate in Vancouver if the crisis in the U.S. worsens.
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YLTNBoomerang Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Ha, I love it! Monterey, your comments show that you are afflicted with the same bug as I. It is the oddest thing but when you watch and update the same properties day after day, it is almost as though you begin to sense each seller’s strategy and how many either do not understand economics, the psychology of sales, or cannot unhinge their emotions from their investing (most likely).
Comparing houses in N.Van, where I would like to buy eventually, is challenging as each has its own perks and problems; these apartments downtown are great to compare as they are like a stack of egg cartons, all identical – with multiple units for sale in the same buildings, every price drop is mimicked by the other units, any buyer watching this knows all they have to do is sit back and enjoy the show; it’s a dutch auction with no reserve!
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Van-zee Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Great data thanks for all the work.
I agree on the Barclay a dark dank looking holes ready to be broken into.
What do people think a realistic price per square foot will be in the westend?
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Alan Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Construction costs are what < $200 sq/ft?
A few million in land value divided by a hundred or two suites adds what? $25 sq/ft?
Sounds better value to get together with 100 of your closest friends, buy a couple of lots and hire a contractor to build it for you!
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tjwappraiser Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Alan
You are way out on your land value. By way out I mean completely out to lunch.
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Dave Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 3:49 pm
tjwappraiser, as are the construction costs. But let’s not ruin the fantasy.
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Anonymous Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 4:08 pm
You should remove the spreadsheet author’s name and employer from its properties.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Something big is burning in Surrey. I wonder what it is.
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pricedoutfornow Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Quattro Developments..hmm could it be angry speculators who realized that a condo across from a porn shop and methadone clinic is NOT going to be worth a million dollars upon completion? Seems a little suspicious…or maybe I’m just too cynical ;p
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macchiato Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 4:38 pm
“But let’s not ruin the fantasy.” I guess Dave can relate to fantasy, because we all know how much he is enjoying his fantasy as the local spurious RE bull.
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oziijjiizo Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 5:00 pm
west end fair price is $250 sq. ft.
buyers strike in effect until this metric is reached… you heard it here!
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bearette Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Huge fire in Whalley condo development this hour. Any bets as to how deep that developer was in the red? Any thoughts on if the media will ask that question?
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jesse Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 5:14 pm
“Any bets as to how deep that developer was in the red?”
I don’t see how setting a fire is going to help. They still own the land and any insurance they have will cover construction costs to date and cleanup only, not much more.
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VancouverBanker Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 5:28 pm
So we did a poll of all our major developers the last two weeks: alomst every one has dropped prices 4-10%. The only ones who have not dropped prices are those with existing presales that have yet to close (they don’t want to piss off the existing presales). Also, they’re trying everything they can to reduce prices without actually reducing list price (free TVs, etc).
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Gadwin Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Wow, desperate, desperate, specuvestor:
“This is the second fire at this location in the past two days.
On Monday afternoon a fire, which officials called “suspicious”, was set on the first level of a four-storey building currently under construction at 13789 107A Avenue.
The fire was extinguished by site personnel before it caused any major damage.”
http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/30056284.html
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Michael Randallbard Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Bad News, NO INSURANCE COVERAGE…..news said a worker said someone wanted the buildings destroyed and had attempted this before.
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Strataman Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Dave “tjwappraiser, as are the construction costs. But let’s not ruin the fantasy. ” Dave old buddy you are right EXCEPT construction costs are based on demand. Although not in construction but more building operations / maintenance my fees have trebled in the last two years. Do I think this is my actual cost plus mark-up? No way I expect my charges to decrease with the bust. Right now I turn away far more contracts then I can possibly full fill as I can’t find the experienced staff. Do I think I’ll be making these rates in two years? Not a chance. Bubble owners pay bubble costs, construction costs will nose dive with real estate prices.
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Strataman Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 6:22 pm
No way I expect my charges to decrease with the bust. Should have read NO WAY! I expect my charges to DECREASE with the bust. Sorry!
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Patiently Waiting Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 6:39 pm
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....93755.html
“$211900 Smoking Quattro Deal (Whalley)”
Yikes, this was just put up yesterday, and ends with “Hurry!”
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patriotz Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 7:23 pm
There is no safe haven for real estate in Vancouver if the crisis in the U.S. worsens.
RE would be headed for a bust in Vancouver even if everything were okey-dokey south of the border. The numbers make no sense here regardless of any external factors.
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alan Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 8:28 pm
So, educate me. What are realistic land and construction costs? If sources for the information can be provided, that would be useful also.
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patriotz Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Land doesn’t cost anything to make. It’s already there.
Land sells for whatever builders are willing to pay for it, and can and does fall to zero if the market price of finished buildings falls to less than construction costs.
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alan Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 9:02 pm
$3 million buys a 66ft lot at Gilford and Robson in the West End. I don’t know what the zoning is or how many stories one could build there.
Assuming one could build 60 suites (4x 600 sq/ft, 15 floors) each suite would use up $50K worth of land. OK, that is more then my 1st guess, but still does not come anywhere close to justifying a price of 500-600 sq/ft.
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Clam chowderhead Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Property’s value is based on it’s potential not on what is currently there, that piece of land is zoned for 4 stories in height and that is with setbacks both towards Robson and to the lane behind. You could not build 15 stories, if you could that piece would be worth roughly 4 times more. So you’re obligated to construct the ground floor as commercial that leaves you with 3 buidable residential floors but not at a full floorplate, bet that increases your costs a good chunk.
By the way the zoning info for sites is provided free by a handy program provided by the COV called vanmaps, you can even see previous assessments plus recent satellite photograhy. Great utility.
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greed Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Dowtown high-rise condo development site will cost between $220 to $270 per square foot of buildable area (say floor space ratio of 5.0 to 7.0 and times that by site area, say 15,000 square feet), plus/minus for location, etc. Construction costs (hard, soft, financing and holding) should be close to the same, depending on quality of finish. The rest is profit, which most developers want 25%. Development sites arn’t moving and construction costs have stabilized in last 12 months or so and likely to head down also with downturn.
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Paul Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Construction costs are around $150 per foot for downtown condos. This does not include the land cost which varies a lot depending on the FSR. For a 30storey tower, I would estimate around $100 per foot for the land portion if it’s in or around downtown. A lot of buildings including the new Woodwards building are using made in China cabinets, fixtures, flooring, etc to save on construction costs. Developers are able to charge $600-$700 per foot for the finished product simply because previous projects have been selling well. It has less to do with the cost to build, and more to do with what the market can absorb at a given time.
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RJB Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Could someone post a link to Monterey’s spreadsheet? I can’t see it.
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freako Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Construction costs are around $150 per foot for downtown condos.
Still we see the oft repeated argument that prices will go up because costs of construction go up. Obviously it is garbage because:
1. The entire adjustment could easily occur in the land portion. Condos could drop in half and it could still be profitable to build … IF land prices fall enough.
2. As mentioned, the cost of construction FALLS when demand for housing falls.
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freako Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Developers are able to charge $600-$700 per foot for the finished product simply because previous projects have been selling well. It has less to do with the cost to build, and more to do with what the market can absorb at a given time.
Well since developers compete for buildable land, it is really that:
Going housing prices less cost of construction cost sets land prices.
Land prices and/or cost of construction DO NOT set housing prices.
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patriotz Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Condos could drop in half and it could still be profitable to build … IF land prices fall enough.
Don’t think you really meant to say it, but this reads like a drop in condo prices is conditional on a drop in land costs.
It’s the other way around – a fall in the market price for condos will lead to a decrease in land costs. Land sells only for what developers are willing to pay.
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freako Says:
October 1st, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Don’t think you really meant to say it, but this reads like a drop in condo prices is conditional on a drop in land costs.
Land prices and/or cost of construction DO NOT set housing prices.
Not at all. What I am saying is that housing prices is the independent (in this context) variable. Land prices is the dependent. Cost of construction is the least variable factor, and is somewhat dependent (on level of activity) due to marginal pricing pressures.
In other words, land prices ought to be the delta between home prices and construction costs (including developer profit).
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Gadwin Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 12:29 am
I can understsand 1 apartment burning down, but how does the 2nd one “conveniently” catch fire?
Besides that, somebody tried to set another fire to the same building earlier on Monday:
“This is the second blaze at this location in the past two days.
On Monday afternoon, a smaller fire, which officials called “suspicious,” was set on the first level of what appears to be the same four-storey Quattro building at 13789 107A Ave.”
http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/30056284.html
It’s obviously a deliberate arson.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 12:40 am
This is such a disgusting act. What if firefighters or construction workers had died?
Whoever did this deserves to be publicly humiliated and jailed for years on end. Here’s to their capture.
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Montery Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 7:11 am
What’s a little freaky to me is that I am here predicting the Barclay will suffer the same fate as Quattro. I certainly hope nobody gets hurt or suffers hardship in Barclay… afterall that reno is partially occupied.
I really wonder if perhaps it’s the builder setting the place ablaze. I mean, he’s nearing construction complete status, realizes the bottom has dropped out of the market and is perhaps worried that the assignments might get dropped. Does he take the insurance money, and hope he can rebuild for even LESS in this market environment so that he can profit on the re-build too?
Probably, not, but lets ask another question. Aren’t fire-walls usually made of concrete? In a 100% wood structure, wouldn’t you have fire-walls basically the first thing you put up after the foundation? I’m (obviously) not a construction type, but it seems logical to me, so I wonder if this building even HAD firewalls.
Yikes. All I can say is Yikes.
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Vansanity Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 7:16 am
Quattro development up in smoke this morning. I think it was the last phase of it, trying to find some details.
Also – TSX down 451 pts early.
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Strataman Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 7:22 am
Monterey “Aren’t fire-walls usually made of concrete? In a 100% wood structure, wouldn’t you have fire-walls basically the first thing you put up after the foundation”
In wood frame construction firewalls are made of double ply fireguard drywall each side of wood studs, so they are not really finished (fire proof) until the units are ready for interior painting. At that time any penetrations of the firewall (pipes etc) would finally be sealed.
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dave satv rob, it think so same Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 7:49 am
I know some of you were looking forward to the debates, but sadly I must inform you, the major networks have all preempted the broadcasts for a special round table discussion of two world leading authorities on housing.
Aaron Best and Rob Chipman will be debating several Yale and Princeton, professors on the mythological housing bubble.
This is a government sponsored effort to offset the recent cant touted by Robert Shiller through the Canadian media in his recent visit to Canada.
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john Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 8:16 am
This is why I focus on downtown condos only. Surrey has an arson problem. Rich asians know this and stay away as well. I’ve got a line on a ferrari so I might be getting one of those with one of my HELOCS. Got a new credit card today too.
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bdk Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 8:45 am
Did anyone else go to the PHN private client conference at the westin last night?
During their presentation they showed a 1.18 million unrenovated tear down in Vancouver and compared it to a renovated castle in Normandy France that was $7,000 less.
It amused the crowd which John will be pleased to know included many rich asians!
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pinocchio123 Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 8:48 am
Hey John, did you get your Ferrari yet? I think I saw you driving a silver one on Royal Oak in Burnaby last night.
Man, you should definitely put a pillow under your butt – you seemed like you can’t see crap over the dashboard…
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The Pope Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:01 am
RJB, the link to the xls doc is back up at the top of the post, or you can click here to download it. I temporarily removed it for cleaning – thats why you couldn’t see it.
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dbcooper Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:34 am
john:
you are buying depreciating assets with borrowed money? could you explain your mindset please?
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patriotz Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:55 am
Businesses buy depreciating assets with borrowed money all the time. Including real estate of course. In fact, all physical assets (except land) depreciate.
The issue is not whether the asset depreciates, but whether the yield net of depreciation exceeds financing costs.
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Drachen Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:17 am
dbcooper (nice handle by the way)
John is a joker, he’s just being intentionally ironic. Just ignore him.
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john Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:21 am
I don’t buy depreciating assets. All my investments grow in value. I strategically buy vehicles and condos which I know are in demand or will be in the future. It’s worked very well. I have tons of HELOCS and the credit card offers continue to arrive in the mail daily.
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lorem ipsum Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:30 am
Downtown highrise condo construction costs are about double Dave’s guess of $150, at about $310/ft2:
http://www.bty.com/q407final_bty.pdf
The problem with pulling numbers out of your ass is they tend to smell like bullshit.
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Dave Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:58 am
Iorem, I didn’t say that, Alan did. I am the one who pointed out that his number was out to lunch.
Development costs also go beyond just the price of land and construction cost.
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Mold City Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:10 am
costs also go beyond just the price of land and construction
Right, there’s marketing to be considered as well. Because who in their right mind would pay $600 a square foot for a tiny concrete box without slick ads filled with glowing copy about ‘lifestyle’ and glossy photos of coffee?
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dbcooper Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:16 am
All my investments grow in value.
OK you don’t sound like some
fly-by-night operator so I’ll ask
you for some advice.
I have a significant amount of frequent flyer points accumulated. Should I be cashing these in or holding for the longer term.
I ask because I really don’t want to bail on the original investment. TIA
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Deja Dosh Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:30 am
11 dosh Says:
August 2nd, 2007 at 2:07 pm
whats with the obsession with the US market? last i checked we were in a different country. i know we do some trading with them, but geez, lets get real!
Current score: 0
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Vansanity Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:30 am
Wow, TSX is getting killed on some downgrades by Merril today… currently down 697pts. We’ll see where it ends the day. I don’t remember a time of such prolonged volatility before. What will tomorrow bring?
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Dosh thinks Vancouver is New York! Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
20 Dosh Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
wonder what happens if the U.S. drags Canada into a recession.
Not going to happen. IF the US goes into recession it might have an effect back east, but Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world and we’re not manufacturing widgets. We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.
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exx Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Home prices in most Lower Mainland markets slip below 2007 levels
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Sidelines Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Hey “Dosh thinks Vancouver is New York!”:
Most of our exports go to the US. On top of that, it looks like BC is the fourth largest exporter to the US in the country. http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/exp/exp_prov.pdf
Does that qualify as a magic-deflector shield, in your mind?
As for “cultural center”… ahem, cough, gag… John, is that you?
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Drachen Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Sidelines
We have the fourth largest exports period so it’s hardly surprising that we have the fourth largest exports to the US.
I think it’s more relevant what percentage of our total export is to the US. Which is about 60% which is actually quite low as far as Canada goes but not really low enough for anyone to realistically say we’re entirely “de-coupled” from the US economy.
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RJB Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Thanks for reposting the spreadsheet Pope.
Monterey, thanks for sharing this info with us. I live in the West End and have been keeping my eye on prices.
The Barclay is a hideous brown turd that stinks up the West End.