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Friday Free-for-all!

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154 Comments

It’s Friday and that means it’s open topic free-for-all news round up time!  Here are a few stories I’ve noticed this week:

–Lower mainland house prices drop below 2007 levels
-Shiller: Canadian housing bust looms
-Plunge-O-meter: Van prices down more than $30k
-Quattro: Yaletown comes to Surrey, burns down
–Vancouver homeless top priority for Mayoral candidates
–55% of Canadian workers live paycheque to paycheque
-Ottawa: No need to boost deposit insurance
-Calgary house prices keep on dropping
-The next bubble: Equity and commodity markets?
-IMF: US likely headed for deep prolonged recession
–Global recession could drive oil to $50 in 2009
–Michigan home sells for $1.75

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news, links and thoughts here and have an excellent weekend!

note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Thanks!

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subpriming the pump

Vandude: As I said, the notion that 60-year mortgages are on the table is hard to believe… but my understanding of the maximum amortization period in Canada is that it's only a maximum if you want/need government-backed insurance. If you want a longer term than 35 years, you just have to pony up for (more costly) private insurance. From the BCREA website, there's info on how the "outlawed" 40-year products offered by name-brand brokerages are still, in fact, available: http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/2008FederalMortg… "Private insurers are still free to insure 40-year amortization and 100 per cent loan-to-value mortgage products, but the lack of government backing will lead to sizeable increase in risk. This may mean the elimination of these products after October 15, or a higher insurance cost for the borrower." I haven't found anything in a google search about 60-year products per… Read more »

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Vandude

60 YEARS? Are you sure you or your friend isn't fibbing? I have a couple of friends who are mortgage brokers and 40 years is the MAX.

Stop trying to make the bears feel happy.

"138 subpriming the pump Says:

October 5th, 2008 at 3:48 pm

A friend of mine bought in Vancouver at the beginning of summer. She and hubby got a mortgage from a broker in Alberta. I can’t even believe the terms: 5% down, and 60 year amortization! I didn’t even know this was possible… "

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betamax

Sluggo – John is deliberately satirical for laughs, unlike Dave who either drank the Koolaid or thinks facile blog posts will prop a falling market.

One is intentionally funny, the other is just funny. But enjoy them both while they're here; they'll both disappear in a couple of months.

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Anonymous

Worst-case scenario is approaching rapidly

The credit crisis, which has been building slowly for the past year, is now moving so fast that governments around the world are finding it impossible to keep pace.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/co…

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dbcooper

satv was right!

john was right!!

dave was right!!!

Believe it or not, house prices are going to soar

With developers unlikely to respond quickly when the market bottoms out, prices may recover more quickly than people imagine.'

That price rise may be every bit as large as the current price falls.

http://tinyurl.com/4ug4t6

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Anonymous

is it just me or does the up arrow add 2 points to the score?

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MickeyFinn

It seems to me that a characteristic of balloons and bubbles is that they never pop just a little bit… it's pretty much all or nothing.

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Not Rob and his many

Satv,Rob,:

You see the connection between the money printing presses and inflated asset prices, yet you fail to see the event that always follows the inflation phase.

But no problem, you will see if first hand – inflation, recession, panic selling.

In California prices are down 47% in some markets, even with Bernanke putting an extra graveyard shift on the money presses.

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jesse

"The main reason the inventory of unsold homes has grown so rapidly is that the buyers have gone on strike."

Actually it doesn't take much of a strike at all for sales to drop off a cliff. For every new buyer there are 2-3 that rely on that buyer to sell their own properties. Take away only 15% of demand and that's your 40% drop right there.

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John

The great bear panic is underway big time. How are those paper investments doing bears? Us bulls have a nice cozy house for the winter and lot's of real assets instead of a depreciating bank stock.

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browntown

hey nutslaps! i see signs bears starting to panic! like printing press coming into den! try to shrink bull rocket!

hey! if you like canucks this yr press green arrow below

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Falling on one'

“Are Dave’s comments above in a small font because they are getting ranked lowly?? That is childish – I like it!”

Unlike his blog, where he censors the truth, here, the posters decide.

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pricedoutfornow

For $390k you should be able to buy the whole city of Greenwood! Seriously, I checked out real estate out that way a few years ago, a typical house in Greenwood was about oh, $40,000. About a year ago people realized the RE out there was dirt cheap and rushed in to buy. Too bad they didn't realize the RE market there is pretty dead, hard to unload that shack you bought these days. All those for sale signs along the highway makes me laugh. Suckers!!!

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punface

Are Dave's comments above in a small font because they are getting ranked lowly?? That is childish – I like it! But can his comments please get marked in a way that is still readable without copying the text into another program – say put them on a darker coloured background?

I like to follow both sides of the conversation, and I don't think it does us any good to completely shut out the bullish views. And since we are all fairly certain that Dave is somehow involved with real estate in his professional life, his comments are a useful way for us to see how the dishonest and/or clueless members of these professions are currently tricking people into buying.

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Rob the Shyster BS m

Vancouver investors recognize good value, and the solid fundamentals of the Vancouver market make investing in the best real estate anywhere an undeniably great investment for investors from abroad as well as local.

The metrics tell the tale:

S/L ratio: in the high 90’s

MOI : 1.5

And let’s not forget, the shortage of land, the fact that Vancouver is a world hub of business, and did I mention we are the California of the North?

(maybe I shouldn’t use the California of the North thingy anymore)

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punface

Whenever I see an MLS listing where the description includes what the unit currently rents for, I always do a quick calculation of what the unit would yield and how much the new owner would lose if they kept it as a rental.

The results vary greatly – but I've never seen a montly loss as low as $200. I would say $500 minimum (this would be on a smaller 1BR.)

If anyone sees any listings like this, post them … they are interesting!

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subpriming the pump

A friend of mine bought in Vancouver at the beginning of summer. She and hubby got a mortgage from a broker in Alberta. I can't even believe the terms: 5% down, and 60 year amortization! I didn't even know this was possible… (on their mortgage papers, they are "self employed".)

The rationale is to keep the monthly payments within their range, and longterm they're counting on appreciation… I tried to get them to read this and other bear blogs, but they wouldn't do it. I guess they're not that worried, they're in for so little it will be easy for them to walk away if things get tough.

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Dave 3

CPAB, why are you accusing me of being Rob Chipman and why is the text in my posts so small above?

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sluggo

Been waiting eagerly for pope to implement the "thumbs down" option for instant relief from the nagging of a couple of bulls still stuck in denial.

Well, sumbith, I was so pumped to blast away at the first sight of Dave and John that I hit the wrong damn button…that feels even worse than the agony of not having the "thumbs down" option.

O man, will I be waiting for you creeps the next time.

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patriotz

I’ve driven by many, many times and wondered what the history of this building was … it’s described in the MLS listing. Bet that’s about all you know about Greenwood, a city rich in history.

I grew up in the southern Interior, wise guy, so I've known about Greenwood since I was a kid.

If you think being "rich in history" makes a house in a ghost town worth 390K, go ahead and buy it.

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JB

Germany seeks to reassure savers

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has moved to reassure savers in German financial institutions that their deposits are safe.

The BBC business editor says the biggest worry is now in Iceland, where the government is trying to shore up the entire banking system before markets open on Monday.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7653317.stm

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bdk

Alright Annonymous I shouldn't rise to your troll bait. Here's a unit that would cost over $400k if available right now for $1400 (650 sq ft) in Coal Harbour with pool. "$1400 1br – 1 Bedroom w/View at Coal Harbour for Rent (#1204-1328 W. Pender St., Van, BC) (map)Well designed 1 bed suite, 7 appliances, granite countertop. 12/Fl, view of Coal Harbour, Park, marina and mountain. Building has Resident Manager, concierge service, indoor swimming pool & full rec facility. Come with 1 parking and 1 locker. " So what is it you are trying to say? Are you suggesting it's only a loss of $250 if you buy it outright? What about the opportunity costs of putting up hundreds of thousands? If vacancies are so tight in coal harbour why do I have my pick of hundreds right now? You… Read more »

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Dan in Calgary

My favourite – Greenwood, population 656, Canada’s smallest incorporated city.

33 listings – one for every 20 people. Look what you can get for just 390K LOL!

Thanks for bringing this listing up. I've driven by many, many times and wondered what the history of this building was … it's described in the MLS listing. Bet that's about all you know about Greenwood, a city rich in history. Regarding "LOL", you big city folks are all the same … full of yourselves.

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Anonymous

"- While you can rent downtown for $1300-$1500 a decent sized 2 bdrm in a new building with a pool is a different story."

That is a 1 bedroom price in coal harbour, those numbers make sense it's a $2,000 loss to the landlord every month

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Anonymous

"bdk Says: October 5th, 2008 at 12:17 pm Downtown rents cover 1/3-1/2 of the mortgage payments with 5% down ( I know 25% percent is required but people lie). $600 per $100k on a $489k (oops $450 now) plus strata fees ($230),maintenance and insurance is over $3,000 per month. The rent for this unit (and there are hundreds so this is a fair sample) is $1300-1500." – No one is paying 6% on a mortgage not even close. – A 20% downpayment is required to avoid CMHC costs. – While you can rent downtown for $1300-$1500 a decent sized 2 bdrm in a new building with a pool is a different story. – Vacancy is low enough that you can assume full rental all year right now. So in the examples posted the owner is losing $250 dollars a month.… Read more »

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