Friday Free-for-all!
It’s Friday! Time for our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion for the weekend. Here are a few things I’ve noticed lately:
-Global News Video: Vancouver house prices to drop 30% by 2011
-BC house prices to drop additional 18% in next two years
-501 Pacific: levy passed for $1.4 million exterior maintenance (PDF).
-Exx: Recent price-reduced sales compared to assessed value
-BC is ‘a terrible place to commute‘
-Loonie plummets to four year low
-Text of Premier Campbell’s statement on the economy
-VANOC prepares for economic uncertainty
-Olympic village in good financing says CEO
-Buy an embarrassing license plate, win hockey tickets!
-BOC: Canada on verge of recession
-US land slide to affect Canadian market
-Whitehouse warns GDP number ‘not good’
-Greenspan ‘shocked’ by credit crunch
-US foreclosure activity up 71%
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Thanks!
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October 28th, 2008 at 11:25 am
I am a teletubbies real estate never go down just ask Johhhnn
October 28th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Sophia,
You should check the language title i was trying to find out more info from 8 but “teletubbies bye bye.”-he said
http://www.dreamgate.com/teletubbies/bye.jpg
October 28th, 2008 at 1:35 am
Jesus Krrish, I can never figure out what the hell you are talking about.
And by the way where exactly are you from? Forgive me but there’s no way you were born in this country. I’m guessing somewhere in Southeast Asia based solely on the fact that according to Wikipedia:
Krrish is a 2006 Bollywood science fiction superhero film directed by Rakesh Roshan. Released on June 23, 2006.
Based on that I’m guessing Indian, Sri Lankan or Pakistani and given the cultural makeup of Vancouver I’ll bet India.
Am I right?
October 27th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Sophia,
Shhss man,Sophia do you know what ever happen with you guys at other end you never come to report back to confirm things,let me line things up here for you bdk strataman and other.
Most of Occupations are based on oppertunity not really on education.(what are you cooking sophia do you know how to make lasagna)next Hey krrish2 buddy you are a warehouse worker!
Remember you had a shot on waitress,window drapers,taxi drivers etc.
Sophia no matter what it did not took life to learn a lesson only 1 year GIRL no wonder you stop calling him warehouse worker hey krrish2 did you see that?.
Anyway “he never wish you anything bad” said his mum.
Good Luck for the future his billow(beauty).
October 27th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Thanks Anon,
The peculiar part about all of this was the timing. Essentially I had to liquidate everything. Luckily I liquidated before everything crashed, so at least there was more then enough to live on for a while. Funny how that works out. If they’d kept me on longer, I would only have about half as much available cash.
Life has a funny way of working itself out. I think I owe a lot of it to the voices of reason here and at VHB’s old blog. Thankfully I knew what was going to happen and while I couldn’t make money by shorting stocks etc, at least I was ale to cushion the blow. If I owned a home now I’d be *screwed*. Instead I think I can dig up the money to start a business.
A *lot* of people are about to go through what I just did. I can’t imagine dealing with all that *and* one (or more) mortgages on one (or more) properties losing value daily.
To VHB, Mohican and the Pope: Thanks so much, and may I offer you the highest compliment any Vancouver blogger can offer:
Your excellent analyses and concise observations were worth every moment that I spent pulling my hair out over Krrish’s stupidity.
October 27th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Scullboy,
HR meeting seems to be very nice treat remember when you use to hunt for krrish2 from 8.30 to onward and use to go home by sayin”AH FINALLY”like cat had really nice meal every day after work by saying all this i mean lucky they did not fire you by monitoring your performance for productivity or else it could be actually the reason behind your termination.
Then you say their stocks are falling badly remember in your second post you say that you are stand by your words to advice people further to invest in stock market opppsss.
I just want to say don’t ever hunt for him he is with you all the time walking stalking from CHILKO to further anyway wish you good luck and please only use blogs in your free time take no tension because some one say real estate vancouver never go down so just relax.
nobody!!!!!
October 27th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Well Scullboy,
Sorry to hear about the shocking way you were laid off.I don’t know what I would do if that happened to me. It is amazing that you were able to recover from it so fast.
I’m glad that you are just playing with knives and not throwing them:)!!
Well, I look forward to hearing about your restaurant in the future. In the meantime I hope you enjoy your life. It sounds like you are happier now. What did you cook up today?
October 27th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Anon 269:
I was an IT project manager for a large telephone company. I’m not a knife thrower, I’ve just changed to a culinary career, so I’m *playing* with knives, not throwing ‘em.
I figure in good times or bad, people have to eat and I’m a gifted cook. Why not make some money?
They are trying to keep the whole layoff thing quiet, I hear. The company I worked for had a very large strike a couple of years ago and ever since they’ve been quietly shipping jobs offshore. They claim it’s because there aren’t enough people interested in call center jobs. Let’s all pause a moment and consider the plausibility of that argument, shall we?
They are accelerating the offshoring. They’ve farmed out QA and product development. Rumour has it there will be massive layoffs around the end of November.
Monterey: That’s precisely how it happened. It reminded me of a Kubric film. I had asked for some emergency leave because my apartment lease was up and I only had about 10 days to find something new. The HR guy asked me to put the information into a bulleted Powerpoint list. Seriously.
I refused and insisted on a face to face meeting. That morning, I walked into a plain white room with a single table, and three chairs. My manager and the HR guy were sitting at two.
My manager said “We’ve decided today that we’re going to terminate our employment agreement with you. Here’s your package, and we wish you the best.” They slid a plan brown envelop toward me and walked out the door, without another word.
Then some woman came in and said “Hi, I’m a termination consultant. I wanted to ask how you’re feeling right now.”
The fact that she walked out of that room without a broken nose speaks volumes about my restraint, IMO.
I heard from my colleagues that it was just as Montrey said …. it was like I never existed. Needless to say they’re freaked out. I’ve heard the same story from friends who were
God, I’m glad to be out of that environment. It was a nightmare. I’ve never met managers as incompetent and venal. I’ve never seen a company so poorly run. Every day I check their stock on my Mac, and laugh. All their gains from the last 5 years have been wiped out, which means many of the employees have lost a great deal of money. Some of them are close to retirement. Many thought I was stupid for saying local house prices here were just plain silly, and a price crash was approaching. I’m pretty sure they were counting on their company stock and the value in their homes to fund a comfy retirement.
Well… who’s laughing now? I can literally watch their nest eggs collapse between the stock price and the value of their homes. When the time is right, that company will axe all of those people too, all the while trying to keep up the appearance of being family friendly and good to their employees.
Hopefully when my business starts up, I can purchase their homes from foreclosure then burn ‘em to the ground… just for fun.
Yeah I’m a jerk but I cheerfully admit it. I hope those people can learn to like the taste of dog food.
October 27th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
The “DAVE” show
Starring “Dave” and his assorted cast
Season # 3 out soon on DVD and Blue Ray
Order now and we will through in your choice of Nobel Laureate Economist’s advice FREE :
(PS: Sorry, but due to predicted global credit crisis, no cheques or credit cards, debit or CASH $$$$ only , unless you live in Dubai )
October 27th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Hey guys, new thread.
Van housing never goes down: You’re being ironic, right? Even if you weren’t, you’re a funny guy. Keep the “hits” coming.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:26 am
There are some positive signs in the US that housing is bottoming out.
I agree with Dave on this one, here are the peak-to-current drops in the Case-Shiller index in US bubble cities. I had to estimate the current CS number based on the May values, adjusted using the drop in asking prices since then from http://www.housingtracker.net.
Las Vegas -46%
Phoenix -42%
Miami -41%
Los Angeles -36%
San Diego -36%
San Francisco -28%
Washington DC -28%
Might not be absolute bottom for these cities, but it’s getting close IMO.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Nice one VHB, I clearly remember your ‘possible scenarios’ post. I probably even thought some of your predications were exagerrated, I was wrong.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Dave
“I could post that I expect an 85% correction and nobody would call me on it.”
Patently false, I have been called on it several times when I’ve said 60-70% is entirely possible (which I still stand by of course, notice I haven’t revised my position three times to keep up with the changing situation) 85% is ridiculous.
“past corrections have given up about 12 to 18 months of gains.”
There is only one correction on the graph you ALWAYS use. The others are just bumps on the path. Given that you have an N of 1 (even if you were allowed the others without argument you could call it an N of 4) that means that statistically you simply don’t have enough information to make that call. IF we were to propose that your N of 4 was accurate, but it turned out you were out to lunch on this current situation that would mean 20% of the results fell outside of your prediction, so the best you can claim with that method is a 80% probability you’re correct and that’s before you ignore the fact that this is a bubble of epic proportions and you ignore the fact that fundamentals have never been so out of line in this market and you ignore the fact that every other city which was in a similar position to Vancouver’s a few years ago didn’t even pause to blink at 20% on the way down.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:00 am
That would be the approximate percent correction if history repeats itself.
When was the last time we had a global asset bubble, followed by a global financial crisis, followed by a global recession Dave?
You’d better hope history doesn’t repeat itself.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:50 am
“I gotta give you credit man. There are a lot of incoherent idiotic bulls here, but you’re not one of them.”
Holgs,
That’s why you did not show up with answer and you choose to sit with dave a another bear wow just joe holgs long way to go buddy the way you have disappeared in the past more shots are coming towards you again i can give you some credit to construct good argument but contents are missing buddy you are just a bear not a man.
Market in alberta fell into sellers market again in Vancouver dozens of projects are down to halt new supply and no new seller is adding their list in mls tell your micro economist friend only few more moments are available to find good deal also tell him and dave that Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Has anyone run the numbers on how many ‘months of free rent’ the drop from the peak represents so far? I think it was Freako that mentioned this idea – which stats would you compare to get a fair number for this?
October 27th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Dave, I also want to give you kudos for taking part in the conversation and for the most part remaining civil and reasonable. I disagree with a lot of your views, but I appreciate the debate.
It seems like your changed expectations of a further 15-20% drop in prices here is exactly in line with most media reports, bank & economist predictions. Do you work for a bank or realty company? CMHC? Just curious.
Although I personally believe house prices in Vancouver are likely to fall much more than 15-20% overall, I don’t believe they will fall 85%.
The whole point of the argument against viewing real estate as an ‘investment’ at this point is that its a leveraged investment, so even if house prices only fall 20%, that represents a 100% loss of down payment for most people.
The other thing to consider is the way that percentages can appear on an emotional level much more comforting than they are. If you have an investment that gains 100% it only has to lose 50% to go back to zero gain.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:24 am
I’m curious why it would stop at 20%.
If RE drops anymore than 20% Dave will be underwater on his primary investment, er I mean residence.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:19 am
van-zee, past corrections have given up about 12 to 18 months of gains. That would be the approximate percent correction if history repeats itself. Of course, this all hinges on the economy. If we have a prolonged recession, then I would expect prices to continue their march downwards.
Conversely, if things start looking good in the Spring, then I would expect prices to flatten out.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Dave why a 15-20% retraction in prices?
I’m curious why it would stop at 20%.
October 27th, 2008 at 8:54 am
There are some positive signs in the US that housing is bottoming out.
None whatsoever. Sunshine and moonbeams. A brief uptick in sales as knife-catchers buy foreclosures promises nothing.
Kudos for changing your mind; at least you’re not a fundamentalist. As for people’s reaction to you here: people remember their first impressions and those take a while to change.
And here and elsewhere in the blogosphere, people have been predicting current events pretty accurately for a couple of years now; though your ego may not enjoy the idea that many others saw more clearly than you, it’s true.
By all means believe in positive things, but don’t bet on them in the current economic climate; it’s a sucker’s bet.
And staying fit is an excellent goal, for its own value as well as the fact that medicare is soon going to collapse under the weight of old boomers and obese young. Or is that too negative?
October 27th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Holgs, my expectations have changed. I expect the market to continue downwards with a 15 to 20% correction. I’m not sure that would qualify me as a bull, but most would prefer to label me as such because their expectations are more pessimistic than mine. I agree with you that I am ‘bearing’ the brunt of pent up emotions of many here. That’s why nobody takes exception to those who are calling for massive devaluations. For example, I could post that I expect an 85% correction and nobody would call me on it.
The financial crisis obviously throws a big unknown factor into any of our predictions. If the economy gets really bad, then housing will continue on downwards. There are some positive signs in the US that housing is bottoming out. Once that happens, the US economy can start to recover.
I still firmly believe that there are lots of positive things in the economy and especially here in BC.
October 27th, 2008 at 8:18 am
I should have previewed that last post first. Apparently it’s not only my reading comprehension that sucks, but the comprehensibility of my writing.
October 27th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Dave said:
He said he thought the ‘bubble’ started in spring 2005.
We obviously have different interpretations. As I read it, 2005 is when it
VHB said:
I called it a ‘bubble’ in spring 2005. …present pricing was unsustainable.
I’ll keep this short. Just because VHB called “bubble” in 2005 doesn’t mean that’s where it started in his opinion. Pretty sure that’s how it was meant, anyway, but maybe that’s my horrible reading comprehension popping up again.
I gotta give you credit man. There are a lot of incoherent idiotic bulls here, but you’re not one of them. We tend to pile on you but that’s only because you actually represent the “reasoned” arguments of the bulls in the MSM, in our families, and amongst our friends. A bunch of my friends and family have expressed the same sentiments and used the same arguments as you to explain away the housing bubble,
If I could guess why you get so many replies on this blog, I would guess that us bears are projecting our families and friends onto you (since you seem fairly normal and intelligent) and forcing on you the opinions that we don’t express to our family and friends (because we’d rather stay friends with them, whereas you are just some anonymous Dave guy.)
So kudos to you for allowing us to practice our bearish arguments in the echo chamber that is vancouver.condo.info!
I called it a ‘bubble’ in spring 2005. I didn’t claim that Spring 2005 was the top; just that present pricing was unsustainable. So, by the Freako metric, I will be ‘right’ if prices retreat to Spring 2005 levels for whatever that is worth. My prediction was for a retrenchment to pre 2004 prices within 5 years.
October 27th, 2008 at 7:40 am
What have you been up to, mate?
I bought in 2001 and moved up in the market a couple times during that period, from an apartment to townhouse to house.
Other than that, just working away doing what I do. And keeping myself fit.
October 27th, 2008 at 7:33 am
Dave, to answer your question of why VHB didn’t buy in 2005, he stated it in his answer to you.
“I thought housing was overvalued in 2005″
He said he thought the ‘bubble’ started in spring 2005.
He answered my question… his capital was deployed elsewhere.
October 27th, 2008 at 7:28 am
By the way, somebody else has started posting from my pseudo… Obviously a bull. Dave, maybe?
No, I have only posted under the name of Dave.
October 27th, 2008 at 6:51 am
On the news recently wee (2) so called veteran Realtors:
In an UPward market, they were rather critical of BUYERS who ” wouldn’t pay the market price ” which translates into wouldn’t get into a bidding war (and a possible lost commission).
In a DOWNward market,they were rather critical of SELLERS who would not lower their asking prices. This also translates into a possible lost commission.
So, the Realtors , in essence , are admitting they try to play the middle, have it both ways, yet blame their clientele , whether it be the BUYER or the SELLER when things go wrong.
October 27th, 2008 at 5:38 am
Wow, go away for a couple of days and look at the fireworks!
Dave
I think you’re missing the point in blogging. Yes most of us did not predict the global financial meltdown (most of us is a very bizarre way of phrasing it by the way, it’s like you’re hedging your bets (again)). Sites like this are about sharing information and pooling our resources. However I think most of us did agree with those who predicted the meltdown.
I think the problem you’re having grasping all this is that it was predicted in the blogs way before you started hanging out here. By the time you arrived on the scene it was old news and people weren’t talking about it much any more because it was just an accepted fact that there was a good chance of a financial meltdown caused by loose lending standards and bundling of mortgages.
October 27th, 2008 at 2:53 am
I wasn’t laid off, but left a corporate job as the company became mean and stupid. Scullboy described my former workplace so well that I wondered if I worked with him
Seriously, when you get out of bed each morning, do you look forward to your workday? Anyone who answers, NO should stop wasting their life. Money is secondary to a lot of things.
October 26th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Dave Says:
October 26th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
What type of companies do you people work for where the layoffs are happening? Other than forestry, this is news to me. Sorry to see it happening.
I’m in Gothenburg Sweden, where we have Volvo Cars, Volvo Trucks, and Saab. Manufacturing centers for each of them, and in Volvo’s case former headquarters (owned by Ford) and headquarters respectively. As has been detailed on CalculatedRisk and Mish in the last couple of days, all three companies have started laying off, but they are starting with the factory jobs.
This city is full of “underleverantörer,” or suppliers, to the automotive industry, so the layoffs will be hitting with force later this year.
I am on a big project which has nothing to do with the automotive industry, but that will be over sometime early next year and at that point… ?
The layoffs and predictions of housing prices falling here have only started in the last few months, and of course at this point they’re also only predicting 10-15% off. I’ve been a bear among bulls since we moved here… The media here is the same as the media everywhere else. They are extrapolators, not predictors.
October 26th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
It was hard, eh, resisting all the hoopla over the past 4 years. I spent so much time reading blogs, following Freako, VHB, dingus bingus boongus, you name it and I followed it. And then sales declined in Spring of 2006 and we thought that was the Finale and everyone started to celebrate only to have to keep plugging for 2.5 more years.
I am exhausted. But hey, folks we did it. We resisted the mass hysteria.
Congratulations to all!
October 26th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
…(and wasting our lives reading the internets.)
here here!
October 26th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
By the way, somebody else has started posting from my pseudo… Obviously a bull. Dave, maybe?
The short posts were not me. I was sleeping soundly.
Anyway, Dave. I know I left out your “possibility of a correction” from your prediction, so here is your prediction in a nutshell.
Dave basically predicted in June, 2008:
High likelyhood of gains for the next 12-18 months, with a slight chance of a mild correction of less than 10%. A correction of more than 10% is unlikely but could occur if interest rates spike or unemployment rises more than 1.5%.
How’s that for reading comprehension? Oh, on that topic:
Dave, to answer your question of why VHB didn’t buy in 2005, he stated it in his answer to you.
“I thought housing was overvalued in 2005″
Finally, Ted, totally agree. I don’t take credit for being a genius or anything. I was following the same blogs as everyone else, and participating in the same discussions. This was all about putting 2 and 2 together.
I recently tore Garth a new one in one thread because he was taking credit as the only one calling for a correction when his book was released. I see his blog as a blog for beginners; he doesn’t play nice with the rest of the blogosphere. None of us can take credit as a financial geniuses… This was all about connecting the dots (and wasting our lives reading the internets.)
October 26th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
post 270 Patriotz
The realtor won’t tell the seller ” don’t sell now” you can sell for higher later….
Realtors are not investment advisors for either the seller or the buyer. They are commissioned salespeople. It is the seller’s responsibility to decide whether to sell and what the minimum price he accepts will be. It’s the realtor’s job to get the seller the higher possible price in the current market.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
It looks like the Fed is getting ready to cut interest rates to below 1%.
Yes, just what the US housing market needs, more consumer price inflation with stagnant nominal wages and falling payrolls.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
first i heard of vhb shortin’ banks…
I’m with him on the Van RE call, have been fer a good while, and that looks to be coming true, but geez the “capital was employed in strategies aligned with my predictions” turn of phrase gives me the shivers.
That’s MBA consultant forked-tongue speak, junior.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Regarding post #301, you always know that when it gets to the ad hominem, the argument is, for all intents and purposes, OVER.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
It looks like the Fed is getting ready to cut interest rates to below 1%.. That whole approach worked so well for the Japanese, why not give it a shot?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27389328/
October 26th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
“It wasn’t any supernatural ability that led to these prediction it was simply connecting the dots. The problem was that there was no motivation for those making a living off the boom to connect the dots, and they were the ones with the loudest voice in the media.”
Exactly the same way Dave has a big mouth. Dave — you have one mouth and two ears….use them.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Ted,
you have lost your tail
in boom similar to what vhb and holgs did.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
insecure to the point where they have to look for reassurance
That’s a weird comment. Since when does enjoying a debate have anything to do with insecurity?
October 26th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
From what I recall, nobody here predicted the events that have transpired the last couple months.
I think it would be silly to expect anyone to predict an exact sequence of events, but many here (notably VHB) have predicted this whole thing with a remarkable degree of accuracy. In fact I think the majority of people here who thought through the housing ponzi scheme saw it ending very badly. Of course a year or two ago people talking about a bunch of huge banks failing, a gigantic US bail out scheme and shockwaves rolling through global markets would have been dismissed as an out of touch doom and gloomer.
It wasn’t any supernatural ability that led to these prediction it was simply connecting the dots. The problem was that there was no motivation for those making a living off the boom to connect the dots, and they were the ones with the loudest voice in the media.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Ok, the one thing i find strange is how people like VHB, Holgs and Alexcanuck are allegedly so successful, but insecure to the point where they have to look for reassurance about their status on the internet? Something doesn’t add up.