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Friday Free-for-all!

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344 Comments

It’s Friday!  Time for our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion for the weekend.  Here are a few things I’ve noticed lately:

-Global News Video: Vancouver house prices to drop 30% by 2011
–BC house prices to drop additional 18% in next two years
–501 Pacific: levy passed for $1.4 million exterior maintenance (PDF).
-Exx: Recent price-reduced sales compared to assessed value
-BC is ‘a terrible place to commute‘
–Loonie plummets to four year low
-Text of Premier Campbell’s statement on the economy
–VANOC prepares for economic uncertainty
–Olympic village in good financing says CEO
–Buy an embarrassing license plate, win hockey tickets!
-BOC: Canada on verge of recession
–US land slide to affect Canadian market
–Whitehouse warns GDP number ‘not good’
–Greenspan ‘shocked’ by credit crunch
–US foreclosure activity up 71%

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Thanks!

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informer10

I am a teletubbies real estate never go down just ask Johhhnn

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Informer9

Sophia,

You should check the language title i was trying to find out more info from 8 but "teletubbies bye bye."-he said
http://www.dreamgate.com/teletubbies/bye.jpg

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scullboy

Jesus Krrish, I can never figure out what the hell you are talking about.

And by the way where exactly are you from? Forgive me but there's no way you were born in this country. I'm guessing somewhere in Southeast Asia based solely on the fact that according to Wikipedia:

Krrish is a 2006 Bollywood science fiction superhero film directed by Rakesh Roshan. Released on June 23, 2006.

Based on that I'm guessing Indian, Sri Lankan or Pakistani and given the cultural makeup of Vancouver I'll bet India.

Am I right?

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Informer8

Sophia,

Shhss man,Sophia do you know what ever happen with you guys at other end you never come to report back to confirm things,let me line things up here for you bdk strataman and other.

Most of Occupations are based on oppertunity not really on education.(what are you cooking sophia do you know how to make lasagna)next Hey krrish2 buddy you are a warehouse worker! 😉 Remember you had a shot on waitress,window drapers,taxi drivers etc.

Sophia no matter what it did not took life to learn a lesson only 1 year GIRL no wonder you stop calling him warehouse worker hey krrish2 did you see that?.

Anyway "he never wish you anything bad" said his mum.

Good Luck for the future his billow(beauty).

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Anonymous

Thanks Anon, The peculiar part about all of this was the timing. Essentially I had to liquidate everything. Luckily I liquidated before everything crashed, so at least there was more then enough to live on for a while. Funny how that works out. If they'd kept me on longer, I would only have about half as much available cash. Life has a funny way of working itself out. I think I owe a lot of it to the voices of reason here and at VHB's old blog. Thankfully I knew what was going to happen and while I couldn't make money by shorting stocks etc, at least I was ale to cushion the blow. If I owned a home now I'd be *screwed*. Instead I think I can dig up the money to start a business. A *lot* of people… Read more »

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Informer8

Scullboy, HR meeting seems to be very nice treat remember when you use to hunt for krrish2 from 8.30 to onward and use to go home by sayin"AH FINALLY"like cat had really nice meal every day after work by saying all this i mean lucky they did not fire you by monitoring your performance for productivity or else it could be actually the reason behind your termination. Then you say their stocks are falling badly remember in your second post you say that you are stand by your words to advice people further to invest in stock market opppsss. I just want to say don't ever hunt for him he is with you all the time walking stalking from CHILKO to further anyway wish you good luck and please only use blogs in your free time take no tension because… Read more »

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Anonymous

Well Scullboy,

Sorry to hear about the shocking way you were laid off.I don't know what I would do if that happened to me. It is amazing that you were able to recover from it so fast.

I'm glad that you are just playing with knives and not throwing them:)!!

Well, I look forward to hearing about your restaurant in the future. In the meantime I hope you enjoy your life. It sounds like you are happier now. What did you cook up today?

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scullboy

Anon 269: I was an IT project manager for a large telephone company. I'm not a knife thrower, I've just changed to a culinary career, so I'm *playing* with knives, not throwing 'em. 🙂 I figure in good times or bad, people have to eat and I'm a gifted cook. Why not make some money? They are trying to keep the whole layoff thing quiet, I hear. The company I worked for had a very large strike a couple of years ago and ever since they've been quietly shipping jobs offshore. They claim it's because there aren't enough people interested in call center jobs. Let's all pause a moment and consider the plausibility of that argument, shall we? They are accelerating the offshoring. They've farmed out QA and product development. Rumour has it there will be massive layoffs around the… Read more »

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NO -LYMPICS

The "DAVE" show

Starring "Dave" and his assorted cast

Season # 3 out soon on DVD and Blue Ray

Order now and we will through in your choice of Nobel Laureate Economist's advice FREE :

(PS: Sorry, but due to predicted global credit crisis, no cheques or credit cards, debit or CASH $$$$ only , unless you live in Dubai )

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holgs

Hey guys, new thread.

Van housing never goes down: You're being ironic, right? Even if you weren't, you're a funny guy. Keep the "hits" coming.

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crabman

There are some positive signs in the US that housing is bottoming out.

I agree with Dave on this one, here are the peak-to-current drops in the Case-Shiller index in US bubble cities. I had to estimate the current CS number based on the May values, adjusted using the drop in asking prices since then from http://www.housingtracker.net.

Las Vegas -46%

Phoenix -42%

Miami -41%

Los Angeles -36%

San Diego -36%

San Francisco -28%

Washington DC -28%

Might not be absolute bottom for these cities, but it's getting close IMO.

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macchiato

Nice one VHB, I clearly remember your 'possible scenarios' post. I probably even thought some of your predications were exagerrated, I was wrong.

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Drachen

Dave "I could post that I expect an 85% correction and nobody would call me on it." Patently false, I have been called on it several times when I've said 60-70% is entirely possible (which I still stand by of course, notice I haven't revised my position three times to keep up with the changing situation) 85% is ridiculous. "past corrections have given up about 12 to 18 months of gains." There is only one correction on the graph you ALWAYS use. The others are just bumps on the path. Given that you have an N of 1 (even if you were allowed the others without argument you could call it an N of 4) that means that statistically you simply don't have enough information to make that call. IF we were to propose that your N of 4 was… Read more »

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patriotz

That would be the approximate percent correction if history repeats itself.

When was the last time we had a global asset bubble, followed by a global financial crisis, followed by a global recession Dave?

You'd better hope history doesn't repeat itself.

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Vancouver Real Estat

"I gotta give you credit man. There are a lot of incoherent idiotic bulls here, but you’re not one of them." Holgs, That's why you did not show up with answer and you choose to sit with dave a another bear wow just joe holgs long way to go buddy the way you have disappeared in the past more shots are coming towards you again i can give you some credit to construct good argument but contents are missing buddy you are just a bear not a man. Market in alberta fell into sellers market again in Vancouver dozens of projects are down to halt new supply and no new seller is adding their list in mls tell your micro economist friend only few more moments are available to find good deal also tell him and dave that Vancouver Real… Read more »

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Mold City

Has anyone run the numbers on how many 'months of free rent' the drop from the peak represents so far? I think it was Freako that mentioned this idea – which stats would you compare to get a fair number for this?

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The Antivolker

Dave, I also want to give you kudos for taking part in the conversation and for the most part remaining civil and reasonable. I disagree with a lot of your views, but I appreciate the debate. It seems like your changed expectations of a further 15-20% drop in prices here is exactly in line with most media reports, bank & economist predictions. Do you work for a bank or realty company? CMHC? Just curious. Although I personally believe house prices in Vancouver are likely to fall much more than 15-20% overall, I don't believe they will fall 85%. The whole point of the argument against viewing real estate as an 'investment' at this point is that its a leveraged investment, so even if house prices only fall 20%, that represents a 100% loss of down payment for most people. The… Read more »

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Power X5

I’m curious why it would stop at 20%.

If RE drops anymore than 20% Dave will be underwater on his primary investment, er I mean residence.

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Dave

van-zee, past corrections have given up about 12 to 18 months of gains. That would be the approximate percent correction if history repeats itself. Of course, this all hinges on the economy. If we have a prolonged recession, then I would expect prices to continue their march downwards.

Conversely, if things start looking good in the Spring, then I would expect prices to flatten out.

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van-zee

Dave why a 15-20% retraction in prices?

I'm curious why it would stop at 20%.

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betamax

There are some positive signs in the US that housing is bottoming out. None whatsoever. Sunshine and moonbeams. A brief uptick in sales as knife-catchers buy foreclosures promises nothing. Kudos for changing your mind; at least you're not a fundamentalist. As for people's reaction to you here: people remember their first impressions and those take a while to change. And here and elsewhere in the blogosphere, people have been predicting current events pretty accurately for a couple of years now; though your ego may not enjoy the idea that many others saw more clearly than you, it's true. By all means believe in positive things, but don't bet on them in the current economic climate; it's a sucker's bet. And staying fit is an excellent goal, for its own value as well as the fact that medicare is soon going… Read more »

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Dave

Holgs, my expectations have changed. I expect the market to continue downwards with a 15 to 20% correction. I'm not sure that would qualify me as a bull, but most would prefer to label me as such because their expectations are more pessimistic than mine. I agree with you that I am 'bearing' the brunt of pent up emotions of many here. That's why nobody takes exception to those who are calling for massive devaluations. For example, I could post that I expect an 85% correction and nobody would call me on it. The financial crisis obviously throws a big unknown factor into any of our predictions. If the economy gets really bad, then housing will continue on downwards. There are some positive signs in the US that housing is bottoming out. Once that happens, the US economy can start… Read more »

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holgs

I should have previewed that last post first. Apparently it's not only my reading comprehension that sucks, but the comprehensibility of my writing.

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holgs

Dave said: He said he thought the ‘bubble’ started in spring 2005. We obviously have different interpretations. As I read it, 2005 is when it VHB said: I called it a ‘bubble’ in spring 2005. …present pricing was unsustainable. I'll keep this short. Just because VHB called "bubble" in 2005 doesn't mean that's where it started in his opinion. Pretty sure that's how it was meant, anyway, but maybe that's my horrible reading comprehension popping up again. I gotta give you credit man. There are a lot of incoherent idiotic bulls here, but you're not one of them. We tend to pile on you but that's only because you actually represent the "reasoned" arguments of the bulls in the MSM, in our families, and amongst our friends. A bunch of my friends and family have expressed the same sentiments and… Read more »

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Dave

What have you been up to, mate?

I bought in 2001 and moved up in the market a couple times during that period, from an apartment to townhouse to house.

Other than that, just working away doing what I do. And keeping myself fit.

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