344 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”
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October 24th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
So far Dave hasn’t been right about a single thing.
Dummy, I have been right about a lot of things. Firstly, I was right to buy at the very start of this market (in 2001). Did you? Secondly, I predicted the market would top this year. Did you? Or have you been calling for the sky to fall for years?
I predicted prices would start declining in the Fall, but was only a few months off. As far as the downside goes, we haven’t yet passed my original predictions made earlier in the year. That said, I am more bearish now considering the world financial situation.
Overall, that’s a pretty good track record.
Meanwhile, you hide under ‘anonymous’ posts.
October 24th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
PLease Nolympics … which one?
October 24th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Poooo: Is that an evil laugh or a quasi benevolent one .
I am just wondering if they( Richmond ) have some sort of voodoo financing. A few weeks back someone said that re: Vancouver’s Olympic village (being built by almost- bankrupt Fortress) that Vancouver wouldn’t see a penny till every unit was sold.
The RV park was simply a prop to make Richmond thankful it wasn’t Surrey,(y’know, a potential Trailer Park Boys set).
October 24th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Maybe No-lympics can comment on (and maybe I misheard this) that no one is allowed to see the details of most of the financing of the Olympics – things like bids and costs…
bueller…bueller…anyone…anyone…
October 24th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
no-lympics, i agree with you on the oval lands, but at least the oval is better than the old rv park that was there.
i can sum up the past few weeks with one word: hahahhahahahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahahah
October 24th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Richmond’s Olympic Oval funding was dependent on selling adjacent public land.
Recall the developers paid over $ 120 Million.
The land has been pre-loaded immediately WEST of the Oval. Olympics starts in approx. 16 months.
Given the economy is tanking, wanna bet the pile of sand sits there before and during the Olympics and becomes an absolute eyesore?
Priceless, a perfect symbol/testament to this sick joke of 2010 Olympics and this bogus speculative orgy.
PS
Now: just to get the perfect camera angle and print T -Shirts ….
October 24th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Neighbour of mine works downtown. Says one 300 unit project had a pre-sale recently. It had 3(THREE) offers period …OFFERS, not sticker price , let alone a bidding wars.
Ouch !
October 24th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
The Olympics (if we even manage to put them on) are only going to be a sideshow to the economic and social changes that are about to hit poor, deluded BC. This province is so far out of the loop and off the map. Only a true BC’er could keep denying the RE bubble well after the rest of the world has already crashed, picked up the pieces and moved on.
I’d like to propose a new motto:
“BC…we’re so far behind, we think we’re ahead!”
(does “the best place on earth” have an exclamation point at the end? just asking)>
October 24th, 2008 at 11:42 am
How old is 501 Pacific, I would assume less than 5 years? It looks pretty new. No warranty on the construction? What happened to the new building codes since the North False Creek condos? Just wondering.
“Call to order, Bunny has the gavel”
October 24th, 2008 at 11:42 am
It’s over specuvestors. All the developers are running for the hills! The developers deal with buyers everyday and right now, all the developers can’t find any buyers! CUT YOUR PRICE AND CASH OUT NOW BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!
October 24th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Dave, if you are serious, you are deluded, seriously. You have lost your grip on reality.
October 24th, 2008 at 11:26 am
The sad part of all of this is the fact that instead of RE bulls reassessing their worldview (much like Greenspan has had to do) the RE pumpers in Vancouver will blame the credit crisis for the downturn. Realistically, this market was already headed down before most people had even heard of a credit crisis. The fact that projects are being cancelled is actually long-run bullish for RE in Vancouver. Most true bears (like me) would have liked to see all of those projects complete. However, most will view it as bearish and it will simply increase the negative sentiment WRT RE, consequently extending the timeline for a recovery.
Don’t listen to people like Dave; I know many of them and they are the same as the Lehman Bros. employees that were saying all was copacetic when they were crashing and burning. I would say half of the people in my office of 56 have one or more investment condos in the LM, and the talk around the water cooler is get the f*ck out while you still can. Sentiment has changed boys and girls and the downside is steep and ugly….
October 24th, 2008 at 11:24 am
So far Dave hasn’t been right about a single thing.
He is either an idiot or was intentionally running interference and trying to bring in business for him and his wife. Either way he deserves to be minimized.
———
October 24th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Dave’s right. It won’t take long for prices to bottom out.
It’s just that the bottom is a long, long way down. If you own a house in Vancouver, good luck. It’s gonna be horrendous.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Dave, months, years or decades?
October 24th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Call me, Dave (you bad boy).
October 24th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Dave’s predictions of mediocre price “corrections” have been proven wrong again. In my estimation, Dave is the “wrongest” person on this blog.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:35 am
ReductiMat, it doesn’t take long for prices to bottom out in real estate. Construction starts will drop quickly, but will also pick up quickly once prices stabilize.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Thank you Pope. I estimate that reading your blog (among other housing blogs) has saved me hundreds of thousands of dollars + interest.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Dave, you are correct that eventually demand will build up and supply will drop. Will the appropriate measure for this be in months, years or decades?
October 24th, 2008 at 10:13 am
V2V, I have seen the article and the new predictions from Credit 1. The new estimates are a recognition that the credit crisis situation is going to affect our economy negatively. I think that is driving the real estate market more than anything (e.g. affordability). Buyers are fearful about current economic uncertainties (e.g. jobs, savings, gas prices) and do not want to make big purchase decisions. Once these issues work themselves out, then prices should level off. In the meantime, demand will build up and supply will drop (fewer completions).
October 24th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Building restoration? The biggest racket out there. I am seeing buildings undergoing their 2nd attempt at restoration.
Spraying a building with silicon as a fix ?
I’d like to have sold them a bridge too LOL, except I think these poor people have met another modern-day snake oil salesmen and have been abused enough.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:36 am
strataman:
if you are lurking…. can you give us the low down on spraying the exterior of a building with silicon?
is this a desperation move in light of winter approaching?
October 24th, 2008 at 9:33 am
I find that my SUV
so…you are now down to a single SUV?
not much of a portfolio is it?
what are the possibilities that you don’t really own it?….. maybe your main asset is leased?
oh well you can always sleep in it.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Montery:
I’m on the board of my condo building, and we always struggle to attract people. The people are generally in the buildings, they just are apathetic as you suggest. In our buildings we’re probably 10% absentee owners. That’s not to say that we don’t have a much larger immigrant population, as immigrants probably make up 65-70% of our owners.
At our last AGM, we needed to make some substantial assessments due to some seriously terrible budget estimates made by our now fired property management company. We had about 40% turnout, which was by far a record.
Oh and FYI, a family member works for a building envelope engineering company. Contrary to what you might think, their business is DOWN lately. The increase in leaky condos lately is not nearly enough to offet the loss of new construction.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:10 am
US ownership of Canadian media soon?
Not so sure about that. Even Goldman Sachs wouldn’t want to control of a dog company.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:05 am
I find that my SUV survives the commutes just fine and dandy. I like a big comfortable commute away from the scurge on the buses and sky train. So many aweful diseases and filth on public transit I find that it’s wise to stay away. Anyway real estate wise things are still good. I’ve been getting good deals on condos. I’ve got a friend in Osoyoos who wants me to look at his investment condo up there should be fun. Osoyoos is the Hamptons of Vancouver.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:39 am
tRy this link:
http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2008/10/24/CanWest/
Asper Nation media empire is apparently collapsing.
US ownership of Canadian media soon?
October 24th, 2008 at 8:38 am
tRy this link:
http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2008/10/24/CanWest/
Asper Nation media empire is apparently collapsing.
US ownership of Canadian media soon?
October 24th, 2008 at 8:32 am
From the Sun article:
“Vancouver’s housing history suggests prices can drop sharply and suddenly and take many years to rebound. Deflate today’s average price of $759,000 to factor out inflation and the real price comes to $193,689, suggesting an annual appreciation of 5.6 per cent if you held your property from 1975 to the present.”
This is not new information. It’s just a realty check for those folks who have not seen ups and downs of the real estate market.
Like a guy going into a casino and going on a winning streak…at some point the winning streak ends and returns turn negative.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:23 am
Post # 17:
Good point….the comprehensive topic of Condo’s is much more than just “supply and demand” market forces…its the long term liability such as the potential for having “leaky” as an adjective.
The perfects storm is having it depreciate both in value due to market forces AND then further depreciated via costs incurred to fix. Dubious investment at best these days.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:13 am
Someone needs to send this
Sun article to Dave:
Vancouver’s housing history suggests prices can drop sharply and suddenly and take many years to rebound.
gasp!
October 24th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Just heard the Portress group was able to saty afloat by acquiring new financing. I am curious how many others will be so lucky if they too had Billions in debt. I’ll be if Fortress didn’t have Whistler Blackcomb (aka 2010 Olympics)in its portfolio it would be toast. Maybe a smart move by Fortress as a strategy ?
I wonder how many other projects they have in BC. beside Whistler BlackComb, Millenium Village, the Evelyn,…. as only the Evelyn was cancelled.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:35 am
Did anyone read that 501 special assessment link?
I had a hard time believing that someone would go through life with a name like “Bunny”!! But beyond that, I found it really interesting that 181 people in a 295 unit tower bothered to show up to deal with this assessment. That tells me there’s a 40% foreign-ownership/apathy factor at play in this one building.
I also like how the they call the meeting at the end of September, but the total amount (on average about $6000-$7000 per unit) is due in less than a month! Fine, they offer you 10 month payment plan, but that’s still a $600-$700/mo unexpected luxury car payment!
Ouch.
And the solution seems to be rather short-term. Spray-on silicone sealant?! Gives your building that nice rubbery feel instead of that solid concrete feel. Forget the market, I’m investing in engineering companies in town. I betcha they’ll be making money for the next 20 years fixing up all these leaky condo’s!!
October 24th, 2008 at 7:31 am
The MSM are half right, they’re finally getting it. They’re still presenting things in a way so as not to evoke panic, no surprise there. Forecasts are conservative on the way down. On the way up? Well, you all remember “+15% per year forever and ever, Amen”.
Amen indeed.
It makes me sick thinking of the number of times I heard “buy now or be priced out forever”. The number of arguments I had over this topic with friends and family all demanding that I go buy. For the rest of you who never had any doubt this market would turn, pat yourselves on the back, soon we will be bargain hunting for RE, my friends.
What will we do with all the extra time not blogging about it? I shudder at the thought!
October 24th, 2008 at 7:14 am
Traders nervous …. very nervous
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/2...../index.htm
October 24th, 2008 at 5:39 am
Whoa, check out the front page of the Sun!
October 24th, 2008 at 5:39 am
We haven’t hear from our own Jennifer “its a balanced market” Podmore Jones in a while. She’s back on page H3 of the Sun saying “It’s neither a buyer’s nor a seller’s market”. She needs to get out of the office a little more and talk to a few sellers.
October 24th, 2008 at 1:29 am
This is the day, my friends. Once you’ve got Global BC calling it a burst bubble with a Ted Chernecki coverage that makes fun of past exuberance, you know the party’s over and done. Goodbye condo boom! Thanks for the laughs and crappy architecture.
October 24th, 2008 at 12:19 am
Dosh Says:
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:42 pm
Congratulations bears, somehow you got the local news sounding as negative and gloomy as you always are.
Wow, it’s the dosh. Aren’t you a little worried, dosh, that the anon guy will start dredging up bullshit you’ve been saying for years and quoting you on it?
Or are you just trying to add to the archives?
October 24th, 2008 at 12:08 am
-Global News Video: Vancouver house prices to drop 30% by 2011
Well, blow me down. Never thought I’d hear anything like that from global. Ever.
I thought the Olympics would build a StarWars shield around us – making us untouchable.
Who knew?
October 24th, 2008 at 12:08 am
I love reading the comments on some of those articles. The ignorance of most people just blows me away. Stubborness and greed will slowly make way for fear and panic. Once the properties of their neighbours finally start selling for less and less, all the prices will start to drop off a cliff. Either that or these people can leave their properties on the market indefinately while their interest payments slowly eat away at all their ficticious profit margins.
Who would’ve thunk that real estate is an illiquid investment that carries inherant risk with borrowed money? Oh ya… we thunk it.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:53 pm
“Vancouver is a beautiful city no matter what house prices are, you’d all probably do well to keep that in mind.”
I’ll keep that in mind today, tomorrow, and 4 years from now when I buy at 40% off today’s list price.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:50 pm
You are right. Vancouver is such a beautiful city. Such an absolutely stunning city that one could almost forget entirely about the fact that the housing market is deflating. For those of us who thought the city took a rather pretentious turn after that whole real estate bubble began, this is something to feel cheerful about. Maybe I can enjoy the beautiful city without having to overhear Starbuck’s baristas discussing their plans to retire off the massive profits they will receive on the sale of their downtown condo. People may actually have to develop some more interesting pursuits…
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Just caught the Global TV piece. Woohoo… gotta love it when the media finally arrives at the party… better late than never… (or should I have said “finally arrives at the funeral.”)
Vancouver’s outrageous real estate prices are toast… if the news media is reporting that we will see a 30% decline then it’s probably going to be more like 50%.
I love it. This is gonna be like shootin’ fish in a barrel!
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:42 pm
Congratulations bears, somehow you got the local news sounding as negative and gloomy as you always are. Vancouver is a beautiful city no matter what house prices are, you’d all probably do well to keep that in mind.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:29 pm
Global News…….. “because of the global credit crisis real estate prices may fall a further 18%…….blah,blah,blah. Yeah, had nothing to do with greed and affordability. We need an independent news station that I can watch with out the bias of ad dollars.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Greenhorn’s Global TV news report (hat tip exx) is well worth a watch. Pastrick is calling for 30% peak-to-trough drops. That, for people counting at home, is about a 45% change in forecast in 6 months. Pastrick’s stock just took a pounding! LOL
Remember this?
Pastrick is blaming the unforeseen global slowdown, not — duh — high prices, for Vancouver’s impending woes. Even if you end up with the right answer you still need to show your work. And from what I’ve seen Pastrick gets an E for effort.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Here’s the video to Thursday’s Global story. The media, as expected, is squeezing the air, much of which was their own, right out of this bubble.
On a separate note, my coworker listed his place at the end of August. His asking price was exactly 07 assessment despite his Realtor’s request to go 4% lower. A month later and no bites, he had lowered it the 4%. Now, almost 2 months later, he is reducing it another 10% for a grand total of 14%. He was initially hopeful and greedy, saying that IF he received any offers, he wouldn’t consider anything <2%. Now he’s hoping for ANY offer. I wish him luck, he will need it.
Nikkei closed -9.6%, DOW premarket now down 358. Yikes.
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
I haven’t read a news report that didn’t thrill me this week. We got, like, one failing condo project a day. Christmas is early this year for us bears.