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October 24th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Nobody is saying Dave is not Dave. But he is STILL anonymous. Are you really that dumb?
October 24th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Here is the only registered Dave’s response to Sarah’s question of Sept. 20/08 about whether she should by a downtown condo.
Dave Says:
September 20th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Sarah, thank you for your question. It comes across as troll bait, but I will answer it nonetheless. I would have believed it without the word extensive.
There are more things to consider than just price and they all depend on your personal situation. Every market is a good time to buy for somebody.
In the short term (over the next year) I am expecting further price decreases. In the medium term (4 to 5 years) I am expecting a flat market and of course I am bullish long term (past 2014). We will probably end the year down 7%-8%. I originally predicted 5%, but the declines started faster than I anticipated. I expect 2009 to maintain the negative declines and I think they will level off sometime in the second half of the year with declines of about 1% per month. We are about 4% down so far and probably have another 6 to 11% to go, which is around $20 to $40k off the current price of the unit you are viewing.
I would presume that you are a first time home buyer as you are buying a 1 BR. I would guess you probably pay around $1000 in rent per year. So, knock off a year of rent and your marginal savings might be $10 to $30k.
But that’s only price. There are obviously lots of other factors. If you like the area, like the unit, can afford your mortgage payment and plan to live there for a long time, then you will come ahead financially in the long term. If you try to time the market, then you are basically a speculator. The good news is that in the long run, you win.
Current score: 0
October 24th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Dave, then you are just as anonymous as anonymous, so STFU.
Are you really that dumb? Anybody can post under Anon. There is only one Dave.
October 24th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
“As far as what I do and who I am… I prefer to keep that to myself. I have only posted under the name of Dave. If VHB identifies himself publically, then I will.”
I’m not really interested in who you are as in what is your real first name and real last name. I’m more interested in what you do. I don’t care if you are this dave or that dave, except insofar as the other dave is arguably a realtor. I just want to know if you have this thing called “conflict of interest”.
by the way, i rather think comparing yourself to VHB is pointless. He’s got more credibility than you do…
October 24th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
too much of a wussie to handle a correction.
Account #1 The house money. Up 4.25% That we don’t play with.
Account #2 RRSP’s I play with. Up about 40%.
Account #3 RRSP’s I don’t play with. Up about 4%.
Account #4 Non-RRSP’s About flat. I tried to catch some falling knives and lost all my gains. Not too much there, and flats pretty good this year, I hear!
Account# 5 Tiny left-over, I just didn’t bother to touch it. Down 35%. Probably a mirror of your RRSP.
All in order of size
OK, I admit it, I’m a wussie. At least I have the balls to make up a name!
October 24th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Alexcanuck-Dave is outnumbered 25 to 1, it’s safe to for a Dave comment!
October 24th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
I used to receive credit offers in the mail, from several banking institutions, every day. Offering me anywhere from $10,000-$100,000 of credit if I “qualified”. Most of the lower amounts(>$50,000)were prequalified, call and activate type deals.
I just realized today that I haven’t seen one, not one piece of mail offering me credit for the last 3 weeks!!!What’s happened?!? Have you all noticed this?? Are you like me?? Did you once get hounded with phonecalls and letters offering you credit and now… nothing, not a peep. I mean it’s no surprise, but it is very telling at the same time.
October 24th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
hey Alexcanuck, i think you were too much of a wussie to handle a correction. The poster on the other blog is right, you’re a tough guy want to be.
October 24th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Sarah is correct about “Dave” being registered. I just tried.
I have no problems believing they are different people. Why is this even an issue?
I do have a feeling Dave doesn’t really believe the BS he spouts, he just uses these boards to practice his spiel on. He did admit to being a Realtor while flirting with Sarah at two in the morning. Does his wife know? Anyway, after a round or two with Drachen he has a fine sense of what argument will get little Mrs Nesting Instinct to insist that they buy right now, over the objections of Mr Practical Logical. Logic rarely works over emotion!
I feel so used and dirty at the thought of Dave honing his malarky here. Eww!
October 24th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Dave
You need a hot cup of reality. There are a number of other factors that will lead to decline in real estate. Given the present economic situation, foreign investment, a key driving force in Vancouver re, is down 50 percent and will get worse as investors need to remain liquid. The demise of the 40 year mortgage,tighter lending policy, and a collective realization that we have been paying way too much for re. And people had better hope that the 160 billion in HELOC loans don’t get recalled – that would be very ugly.
We were manipulated into believing that re would keep going up in value for ever. It simply can’t.
Oh, and i bought my place in 1996. Recently sold and will be keeping ‘a close eye on the market.
October 24th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Does it really matter whether this Dave is the same Dave as the other Dave? This Dave is the one who is wrong about things and later claims to have been right about them. Who cares whether he’s a realtor or a mortgage broker or an escaped mental patient (or all three)? The important thing is that he gives devastatingly terrible advice about real estate.
October 24th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Dave, how will meeting someone in person prove that you are not the other Dave? Please provide your logic. How will we know the person meeting us in the parking lot (“YOU”) is the same person who posts under the name “DAVE”? How? Please inform us of your method.
October 24th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Just because someone posts from a different ip address it does not make him a different person, Dave. So STFU.
October 24th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Dave, then you are just as anonymous as anonymous, so STFU.
October 24th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
These conspiracies are laughable. It is so improbable that two people with the name Dave have posted on this blog?
Just because the other Dave posted his email address in a response is not evidence that we are one and the same.
Firstly, if that was the case, what would be the point of denying it? The other Dave is quite public with his blog. If he was trying to post with fake identities, then why use his own first name?
Secondly, Pope already dispelled this myth by checking the IP addresses and confirming they were unique.
Thirdly, I offered to meet anybody in person to confirm I am not the other Dave, but nobody took me up on it.
As far as what I do and who I am… I prefer to keep that to myself. I have only posted under the name of Dave. If VHB identifies himself publically, then I will.
October 24th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
This is what would happen if a legitimate second “Dave” tried to use the same name:
you are not suggesting the first “Dave”
is illegitimate are you?!
October 24th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Dave, If you are not hiding behind anonymity, then IDENTIFY YOURSELF. What ails you, man?
October 24th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Bearette;
My source said the project is in Yaletown ,approx 300 units, and built by a reputable builder. Due to confidentiality he can’t say any more (and can’t identify it).
October 24th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
This is what would happen if a legitimate second “Dave” tried to use the same name:
“The name you provided belongs to a registered user. Please login to make your comment.”
October 24th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Dave and his wife are mortgage broker/real estate investor realtors.
He accidentally posted his email address in the website box.
They’ve since removed some of the personal information from their website and his wife tried to deny it was him.
The problem is only one person has the name “Dave” reserved on here.
October 24th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Coquitlam had the “Street of Dreams” a while back…(mid 90’s? )Seem to recall many were up in the Million dollar range . I wonder what they are selling for now ?
October 24th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
I’ve gotten into the habit of tracking the total number of single family homes listed for sale on the West Side… and they have been rising. (Okay so I admit that I am wasting time on the job… sue me).
Looking at prior years data, you would typically expect listings to decline in October and yet they are remaining basically where there were at the end of September (after dipping in the first week of October they are now climbing again). Last year for example, listings declined about 18% from September to October.
It seems to me that there is one fundamental reason for this anomaly from prior years… no-one is buying anything… at all.
Okay, maybe there’s two reasons… the other reason is that fear is creeping into the minds of local real estate holders and some are trying to get-out before the decline…
sorry, TOO LATE!!!
October 24th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
I’m the one that posted about one of the union employees working as much OT as he can. The interesting thing is, we just did some hiring and the last OT sign up sheet is full and that is IT for the rest of the year.
Agreed that you shouldn’t hear “1.3 million dollar house” in reference to anything sold in Coquitlam. Interestingly, we had a consultant from Santa Barbara working for us up until we put all major capital work on hold. He bought his house in the hills above Santa Barbara with a view of the Pacific, pool etc for the same amount in ‘06. Hmmm, let’s see, a McShack in Coquitlam for 1.3 mil or a house in Santa Barbara?????
October 24th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
“Dummy, I have been right about a lot of things.”
hey dave, how about coming clean and telling us exactly what it is you do for a living? it might help us understand where you’re coming from.
October 24th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
“1.3 million dollar home in Coquitlam”
There is a phrase you should never hear.
October 24th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Pooo:
The parcels the City of Richmond still owns will be leased out, so they say. Good point you made, Aspac’s pre-load has done its job (ie soil compaction), and they will likely move the sand and put in some sort of temporary landscaping if Aspac puts this on hold.
There was a previous doomsday report by the soil engineers re: the Oval’s location, but now gathering dust somewhere.
BTW: Local Gov’ts are NOT “Non profit”, when they need money they can pimp and rezone a chunk of land to the highest value faster that you can switch on a light. The empowering legislation allows them to set up quasi- Private Corporations . Richmond appointed approx. 12 directors (usual token local mafia) and made the City the sole shareholder. The building ain’t GM Place or BC Place, so I am curious why they have such a corporate structure for a glorified skating rink. I highly doubt that in post Olympics this will be any sort of cash cow, quite the opposite. This building will have no future as a speed skating oval…this from reliable sources.
QUESTION: Any of your fellow posters with more knowledge on these types of legal maters that can explain what Richmond is trying to do?…In my view they are using this as a means to avoid disclosure and under guises of business confidentiality and blowing smoke up the ying yang.
October 24th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
It’s amusing to see that global news report and read the front page article in the Sun today, it all sounds so familiar. Its as if the MSM has been taken over by RE bubble bloggers, bringing up previous crashes, mocking faulty predictions and showing scary charts. Welcome to the club MSM!
Its also funny to see the blame being put on ‘the credit crisis’ just as many here predicted a year or two ago that it would be.. no real mention of ‘affordability’ or out of hand speculation.
October 24th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Looks like some US markets have already starting rebounding.
See link below.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/pr.....9kLW5ld3M-
October 24th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Agree with Jesse – Thanks Warren, always good to hear the inside scoop.
October 24th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Nolympics, this one:
Neighbour of mine works downtown. Says one 300 unit project had a pre-sale recently. It had 3(THREE) offers period …OFFERS, not sticker price , let alone a bidding wars.
Ouch !
October 24th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Thanks for that insight, Warren. +1
October 24th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
yes the walk along the dyke was very pictureqse, sp? the road alignment was so much better before, then again, it doesnt really work from a planning point of view. yea who knows if it will slide in the water, doubtful though. aspac will likely remove the sand before the 2010 olympics and some trees, grass, benches will be planted on the site prior to the olympics coming. yea richmond is very being very secretive about the oval, but it may be that they want it to be a seperate corporation in order to turn a profit and develop lands around the oval because they own about two more parcels and will likely develop it themselves – you heard it here first. Since you all know that cities are suppose to be non-profit right?
October 24th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Just to add a little to what bdk said, it seems like this is “catch up” maintenance that was never done by previous stratas. Getting things through thick-headed owners is another matter entirely. I know many of the people there are still original owner-occupiers, but still argue against every nickel and dime of their huge investment.
Once the report is out there, would-be buyers can see that you ignored a professional report on maintenance and price their offers accordingly.
October 24th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
I own in the 501, I bought a presale in April 1999. It has been a monumental task getting the maintenance spending passed, I think it that was the 4th meeting (I only went to the 1st and send my vote in by proxy), and it only passed by a few votes, here are some of the reasons:
1. You need 75% to pass a special assessment, not just a majority.
2. As others have said, you’re lucky to get 50% of the people to even show up.
3. The developer (Amacon/Onni) still owns about 20 units in the place, including the commercial units which all get a vote. They send reps who vote down essentially any spending. You can draw your own conclusions on why they object to this particular project.
Building codes changed in about 2002, after the 501 was built. There is some minimal issues that are being addressed, and where appropriate, materials are being updated to the newer standards.
An extensive report was commissioned and prepared about a year ago, that recommended this amount of maintenance. It was quite detailed and didn’t reveal anything horrifying. But that being said, doing anything on a 300 unit apartment building is not cheap. The construction downturn should allow for lower labour costs.
Overall the building is in great shape, and is in a great location. I miss living there (too small for my current situation), but I’ve had no problems renting for good dollars.
Bunny is Funny, but Van Condo is the 3rd management company we’ve had, and so far the best by a long shot.
October 24th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
>Now, he can’t work overtime enough; to everyone’s
>astonishment, he is unabashedly grabbing every shift he
>possible can.
That couple sounds like a foreclosure case waiting to happen. Alberta foreclosures are already increasing at a rapid pace:
http://www.canada.com/reginale.....fca45193d4
It’s just a matter of time until BC joins Alberta in the sharp rise in foreclosures
October 24th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
How bad is it getting out there? Well, a fellow I work with has NEVER worked a single overtime shift in the last 10 years. Why? Cause his wife is a mortgage broker and she WAS the true breadwinner in the family (2x’s his barely 6 figure income!). They just moved into a 1.3 million dollar home in Coquitlam around the time that the sh#t really started hitting the fan in the credit markets. Now, he can’t work overtime enough; to everyone’s astonishment, he is unabashedly grabbing every shift he possible can.
That’s how bad it’s getting out there…..
October 24th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
beta, its not too late to cash out and make money if you bought in 2001 or so. You won’t get as much as you would have last year, but if you price sharply you’ll get more than you’ll be able to get for years to come!
October 24th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Bubble Lad:
Rent “Gangs of New York ” and read up on Tammany Hall.
What you have hear is true …Local Gov’ts are the most crooked and corrupt entities in the totem pole pecking order of the 3 levels of Gov’ts. They live on the myth ” these are your neighbours” , they live in the same City,…ie you can trust them as opposed to MLA’s or MP’s.
Most of our Council’s should be forced to watch the video of Saddam Hussien’s hanging or Romania’s Cauecescu’s firing squad exit . The Province has empowered Local Gov’ts via the Community Charter and other legislation to be literal unnaccountable dictatorships who get away with murder.
Heres’s some homework: Speak to a Council member (or Mayor ) on a topic… you will often see a 1.0 watt light bulb above their head. That’s often why they pick them to run ….pupetts !!!
October 24th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Jesus…I’d be laughing about what no-lympics says if I wasn’t busy crying.
I’ve heard that municipal politics is the last bastion of true, old school corruption – but Vancouver has raised it to an art. If anyone ever gets serious about asking questions here…about the olympics, real estate, drug money, esl degrees, zoning and development…there would not be a shovel big enough in the whole world.
October 24th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
I’ve removed the smallest level of down-rating text because its being used to vote down unpopular views rather than just to remove spam and off-topic comments.
October 24th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
CUT YOUR PRICE AND CASH OUT NOW BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!
It’s already too late…
October 24th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Dave
“I was right to buy at the very start of this market (in 2001).”
I have a friend who won $5,000 in the lottery, was he “right” to buy a ticket or lucky? Of course he’s not holding on to the ticket in the hope that it might increase in value though… You on the other hand have a good chance of gaining nothing (or even losing money) when all is said and done.
“I predicted the market would top this year.”
So did most of us, very few people on the blogs called 2007 or earlier, but you weren’t here then… And you only called this year for tops after inventory spiked.
You also predicted that inventory would peak in summer.
and that prices would not decline more than 10%
and that oct 1 would see lower inventory than June 20.
October 24th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
bearette:
Please clarify what you mean by “which one”?
You want a T Shirt ?
I have Bob Rennie(aka future T – Shirt King) working for me now.
October 24th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
“Honestly how do you manage to shovel so much crap?”
Drachen, it is called ‘practice’.
October 24th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Bubble Lad:
Very funny you say that.
I had read a book called ” Lords of the Rings “, by a couple of investigative reporters. Thyey trace the Olympic mafia , ie the circus that follows the Olympics like Kling-Ons and sucks dollars out of host cities.
A colleague of mine and I were very cynical when Richmond stole the Olympics from Burnaby. We thought…WTF? how can you take on a project and not know what the hell you were going to build and at what cost ? We contacted VANOC and asked them how this is possible ie to buy a pig in a poke? The Oval went from about $80 Million to $180 Million . Vancoc never gave us a straight answer, just a bunch of BS.
Richmond basically said they will take on the Oval, and worry about the rest later.
What happens is the host Olympic City (of each venue)takes on the fiscal obligation with a blank -cheque. It effectively abuses its citizesn to be the “bank” and obligates them to pay for every penny. Normally, a Local Gov’t would have to go to referendum for items that exceed its annual budget. Somehow, the City scared up enough coin “supposedly” so no borrowing is needed.
What is more interesting is that Richmond has recently made the Olympic Oval a corporate entity with a board, and also hired someone to run it . Unless I am mistaken, that a classic way to hide as much as possible, which I am sure is their main intent.
October 24th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
“i agree with you on the oval lands, but at least the oval is better than the old rv park that was there. ”
Actually, I have to disagree. There was a pretty nice little walk along a path by the RV park to the dike, laden with blackberry bushes and trees. Now, we have a massive, ugly structure that dwarfs the office buildings located nearby. I also give the RV park 1/100th the probability of sliding into the fraser, as compared to that ugly skating oval.
October 24th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Dave
“it doesn’t take long for prices to bottom out in real estate.”
Again with the sweeping statements that completely lack a factual basis. I presume again you’re only willing to accept information that is on the Vancouver graph, in spite of the fact that there’s only one other bubble to properly compare this one to and that other bubble doesn’t have anything similar to this one in the run-up.
Japan took 10 years to hit bottom. Most US cities have been falling for 2-3 years and are still on a downwards slope.
Honestly how do you manage to shovel so much crap?
October 24th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Good one Dave.
There is an archive of everything you’ve said and the only person who’s been more wrong than you about everything is Dosh.
Who wants to post some of Dave and Dosh’s dumber comments?
October 24th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Awesome Global New video – “It can’t go down, it’s not possible.” Who is that twerp and what rock is he hiding under right now.
Still, it would’ve been sweeter if they Rick-Rolled it at the end of the video…
October 24th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Jacksun the 501 is 7-9 years old. They were pre selling it in 1999/2000 (they were $120k for the smallest units) and construction was underway and it was and still is a nice building.
The HPO requires developers to have a minimum new home warranty of 2-5-10 but this 501 report looks like it’s considered maintenance (the developer provides a maintenace manual to the strata, whether the strata follows it is another story read “lord of the flies” if you want to know how stratas work).
Someone on here might know whether the 501 has an existing new home warranty in place, there would be discussions about claiming in the strata minutes if it is.
It’s strange that the 501 was able to get such a high amount of rent for such small units, some owners managed to get 500 sq ft rented for $1350…