344 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”
Pages: « 7 6 5 4 [3] 2 1 » Show All
Pages: « 7 6 5 4 [3] 2 1 » Show All
Customize your Avatar by registering your account email at gravatar.comWelcome!
VancouverPeak.com- b5baxter posted an update: Average daily increase: 89 Days to 20,000 at current rate: 73
- wreckonomics posted an update: You have to make sacrifices in life to get what you think you want.
- The Ant posted an update: Hey! Where did everyone go?
- wreckonomics posted an update in the group Housing Data: Who want\'s data?
- VMD posted an update in the group Housing Data:
- Bravacado posted an update:
- Bravacado posted an update: 13,000 is the magic number! It's party time for 13,000 […]
- The Ant posted an update:
- The Ant posted an update: Housing bubble devours economy even before it pops.
- admin wrote a new post, Racist marketing and fact-free media
Wordpress theme by Abhishek Tripathi of Mediawick Digital Solutions
October 25th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Some stay polite and call Dave wrong. Some aren’t polite as they call Dave wrong. Some just aren’t polite to anyone, don’t care about right or wrong. Not many left to call him right, now that Bill God, er, Good has stopped pumping RE.
The market doesn’t much care, but has already called Dave’s earlier predictions wrong, and will soon be calling anyone who listened to his type in the past 3-5 years “Poorer, Poor, Underwater or Bankrupt.”
With no politeness at all.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Hey Dogs:
I still stand by what I said:
1) Better to lose half your savings in a stock market dip then half the value of a Vancouver property when the bubble pops. Do the fucking math.
2) If you have an emergency you can cash your stock in a matter of days and gain liquidity, though you may have to accept a loss on investment. Of course, you can claim that loss on your taxes.
Yeah I’m four years older then I was then. Guess what? In that four years I’ve discovered I *hate* office jobs and I’ve decided to change careers. Since the cost of my penthouse apartment is a whopping $850 / month (seriously) I can afford to live on my savings for a while until I finish school.
How many Vancouver real estate moguls can manage that?
You’re supposed to invest your savings you fucking moron, not borrow money from the bank to purchase an asset that’s STILL going to cost money to own!
Wow, my language is a little salty this morning. Well, I’m off to play with knives at school. If any of you need a professional chef, let me know.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Dave said:
Yawn… Anon, what’s the point of bringing up that post. I called for a 15 to 20% correction in it. Last time I checked, we aren’t there yet.
I say:
Dave knows real estate is an illiquid asset, so he knows it takes time to drop. It is this period of time that he hopes people will be convinced that there is no drop at all and hopefully come back and fuel back the bubble. It’s a kin to someone that keeps trying to throw matches into a dying fire deprived of oxygen and fuel and telling you that, yes like Tom Hanks on the island with Wilson by his side, I will make “fire”!
In order for real estate to realize real loses, you need people to start selling and buying homes. Prices can’t drop if there are no buyers. If you have an imaginary 1 million dollar home that can’t be sold, it’s still valued the same. If you drop prices down to say $800,000 and it got sold, then that is your realized price. But ofcourse, the neighborhood gets the same hair clip too. So unless you’ve got buyers who buy, prices may stay stagnant for years.
With the US however, the foreclosure rates are increasing and that is very healthy to the correction phase. It is speeding up the depression of prices so buyers are willing to buy at a higher discount to the dollar, which helps restore the equilibrium of market pricing reality.
Vancouver, however, is a different beast. It had for years, except in the 80s downturn, resisted extreme drastic price reduction. That’s why, Tom Vu’s seminar which attracted many people in the late 80s that came out, tried it and failed mostly. Drastic price reductions are what is healthy which restores equilibrium to market pricing reality. Ofcourse, it’s not all that good to the sellers, but this is something the market has to do.
We may revisit the 80s style correction in our RE soon enough because of several factors that are now working against home owners. Retiring baby boomers, negative savings rate which may force strapped home owners to forced sale and bleak job outlook.
It’s brave for Mr. Gordon Campbell to try and save construction jobs by offering infrastructure programs for them. But then again, Japan had done this many years ago and yet, it did not help one bit, because what the politicians do not realize is that, when the fire is burning out, you can’t throw more matches in and hope it lights up again. You need either oxygen or fuel, ie easy credit and buyers that have all but dried up.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:13 am
Dave, I thought we had talked about this. Please stop insulting people. People will accept you better if you stop it with the personal attacks. To say
“I would also be willing to bet that you are a deeply insecure person, which explains why you have to lash out negatively so frequently. You will notice that I treat people with respect and do not denigrate them in an attempt to make myself feel better.”
is simply demonstrating your delusional psychosis. I have an opening today so it’s best if you come in around 2 pm.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:06 am
Sure, Dave. You are so wonderful. There’s another psychological condition called DELUSION.
October 25th, 2008 at 7:56 am
The current downturn in the stock market is really not at all hard to fathom. After all, the majority of companies in the index has been trending downwards, PE wise, for 8 long years before this crash. Ever wonder why so much money had gotten into real estate?!?
I had said this before in previous posts and I will say it again that today, major US corporations are even cheaper in valuations. Mr. Buffett has been buying some and in fact, this is not his first. In the late 70s, when there was another crash, he had been buying undervalued stocks and had made double digit gains for his shareholders for 20+ years, while the index was essentially going nowhere until 1993. Having said that, the Nikkei index had been doing just back after the late 80s bust for 19 years, also essentially going nowhere and still down.
A clip of 20 to 30% in share prices should be a kin to a Christmas sale on that HDTV you’ve been wanting to buy. And yet, while we think nothing about sale prices on consumer items, we cry and cringe and make a big deal when the stock market plummets by just 30 to 40% In our lifetime, we had seen and experienced sometimes a 60-80% meltdown in our portfolio in individual stocks. If you want an example, check Pilgrim’s Pride now at $2 and something change. People used to pay $20 to $30 each share before the crisis happened. That’s a drop of 90% for the second largest chicken producer. Did we all stop eating white meat?!? In fact, chicken is less fatty and healthier.
There are other myriad examples of US corporations that sell good products, but are just hammered down to oblivion.
History has shown that the stock market is always a precursor to what will the economy do in the next 6 months or so. It is also a precursor to an economic upturn where stocks can go literally up 100 to 200% after a crash. The reason for this is in its liquid form.
Real estate is illiquid, so the drop is quick initially in the next 2 or 3 years or so and then sort of trend downwards very slowly and painfully. For Vancouver, this particular boom has been spectacular, but the downfall will equally be as spectacular. Mark my words — it will become very painful and nasty as today’s homeowners I suspect are less loyal to their homes than previous generations. Today’s workers are spoiled by good work benefits because of poor employee retention — plenty of jobs everywhere. When the downturn hits and when jobs gets more difficult to find is when people will start pondering if they either want to keep paying into the expensive mortgage or walkway. I don’t really think that if people are used to a carefree and unattached lifestyle, then all of the sudden you are forced to sit in a jail deprived of your freedom you are so used to and be able to just suck it up. You are basically forcing people to save, when if fact, they are spend junkies for so long. It will require a major shift in their mindset, which will become a difficult adjustment for some. But adjustments will come as it did in many last booms of the past and bust that followed.
All I’m reading here is that, people welcome a recession or a depression since now, home prices will drop to a point that they can now afford. There’s a saying that a rising tide raises all ships. A falling tide does the opposite..
During a downturn in Japan, the only people who would maintain a reasonable amount of spending were those who are employed by the government, or industries that are relatively recessionary proof. You need to think that getting a job in a recession is going to be much tougher and you’ll be competing with hundreds of job seekers who have equally or more qualification than you do. So unless you are in this position, you will never experience the pain. When people reached that stage however, I don’t think they’ll think about buying a house than putting food on the table and paying rent.
Especially when you start seeing home prices trending down year after year for years like the Nasdaq, you’ll think nothing about homes unless you decide to plant your roots firmly and permanently in Vancouver. So, it all revolves around your job security.
Today, you need to think about how secure is your job. Sure, you might not get a raise next year, but at least you’ve got a paycheck. Most government workers need not worry I think.
October 25th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Drachen, I would be willing to bet that you are describing yourself with those predictions. Psychologists call this projection. I would also be willing to bet that you are a deeply insecure person, which explains why you have to lash out negatively so frequently. You will notice that I treat people with respect and do not denigrate them in an attempt to make myself feel better. You on the other hand do the opposite.
October 25th, 2008 at 3:22 am
What role do you guys think the baby boomer generation will play in this whole mess?
It has been well documented that most boomers do not have nearly enough assets in pension vehicles to fund their retirements at the level to which they have been accustomed.
Surveys have also found that many boomers are counting on selling their houses to provide funding for their retirements.
Connect the dots.
October 25th, 2008 at 2:16 am
jack (137)
Thats a good post. I dont know anything about the area specifically however I looked it up on the map and its right in between two highways…
majestic? oh yes!
Also there using facebook so these could be likely candidates for liquidation.
October 25th, 2008 at 2:11 am
“I’d love to hear some stories about how those turned out”
You will. Just wait until the news is full of repossession sob-stories. It’ll take a few more months for that to happen, but it will.
October 25th, 2008 at 2:09 am
I have a question I have been pondering and talking about with my finance buddies. Its a growing problem that has gotten 0 attention. North american governments are very reactive instead of proactive in downturns
What role do you guys think the baby boomer generation will play in this whole mess?
Do you think its active now or will it be a problem in say 10 years? I ask this because although the workforce can be seen as contracting it will not be at its worst until 12 years from now.
Better then talking about how dave likes his toast
October 25th, 2008 at 1:16 am
“Remember when Vancity was pumping mortgages for “friends to share”…”
I’d love to hear some stories about how those turned out
October 25th, 2008 at 12:41 am
I do believe they were counting on appreciation.
Buying an asset for expectations of appreciation rather than value of use or earnings is the definition of a speculative bubble.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:13 am
Allure Townhomes Give Away Weekend
We will make you a deal you can’t refuse.
Been reading the blog for awhile…thought I’d contribute this nugget….
http://www.facebook.com/pages/.....9756295077
October 25th, 2008 at 12:08 am
cuba
“I find it a bit moronic to relish a downturn in any market”
Well, you’re not really thinking things through then.
The real problem is the bubble. It’s been hurting buyers and sideliners for years. The only fix is a crash and it just so happens a crash was inevitable, the sooner the crash happens the less damage it does…
So, you tell me, who’s the moron.
October 24th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
A small anecdote on leaky condos: I’m renting a Yaletown condo and moving in next month. The owner has mentioned that they are currently in the process of replacing a window or two… and the building is only 3 years old.
October 24th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
I do believe they were counting on appreciation. Salaries are the same.
October 24th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
About half of them bought new houses in 2006. They were all so giddy. And now, as someone said, the thrill is gone. Two have been trying to sell since May this year with no luck.
Why are they trying to sell? Maybe because they couldn’t really afford the 2006 price and were counting on price appreciation or higher salaries?
No bubble here.
October 24th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Dave’s a smart dude, he can get people talking pretty easily. It’s hard to imagine life now without Dave, we’d be a bunch of bears sitting around with our ING statements in hand.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Hey Drachen, how are your stocks doing, about the same as Dosh’s condos? As a cash is king kind of person I find it a bit moronic to relish a downturn in any market, can you not be humble enough to just think ( I told you so) rather than gloat on a daily basis? Me thinks you need a life.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Geez guys, do a search for “Dave” in this thread, actual posts by the guy are outnumbered at least 10 to 1 by people speculating.
He’s just some blowhard who thinks he’s a lot smarter than he actually is. It really doesn’t matter what he does for a living, he’s the intellectual equivalent of a mama bird, he just sucks in information and regurgitates it (unlike Krrish, who provides us with the stuff that comes out the other end).
Here is everything you need to know about Dave.
1) He thinks he is some kind of genius.
2) He is not a genius, most likely he has a slightly above average IQ.
3) He loves getting attention, which is why he makes such an effort to be in a place where he can disagree with virtually everyone (probably was ignored a great deal by his parents in his formative years, remember that kid in your class who stuck up his hand all the time but didn’t really have anything intelligent to say, that’s Dave).
4) In spite of what he says, he’s not here to help us find the path to true real estate enlightenment. (see #3)
5) He is somewhat educated, either college or university.
6) He is probably suffering from either obsessive compulsive disorder or something similar which causes him to ignore the possibility he could be wrong and to shut out any information that contradicts what he wants to believe.
7) He has said openly that he will admit to being wrong (and hopefully throw in a few mea culpas and some grovelling) if prices fall more than 20% below peak, so let’s all hope he’s still around for that joyful moment (although I suspect he’s likely to drop out of sight around -16%).
I can’t think of anything else that matters.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
“Scream suckers scream, it’ll do you no good. That’s it pretties….. run! Run for the exits! It’s too late, you’re already dead!
Muahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!”
This is very interesting to read because not long ago scullboy bdk and strataman had great advice for people to invest in stock market rather than real estate so you three and those who took your advice are already
Muahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!”
Buy real estate today and pay off your mortgage quickly you guys are four year older than you were before !!!!!T!h!i!n!k!A!b!o!u!t!I!t? did your friend tell you that?
October 24th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
i saw a CBC news crew interviewing the site foreman at Concord Pacific Erikson tower
on False Creek…
getting the news out….
good on ya!
October 24th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
anyone mentioned the pier in north van? ctv news says work’s stopped on it. something like half a dozen towers and a national maritime centre. developer and mayor says it’s just a temporary thing while they iron out subdivision problems and they are not in any financial trouble. oookay…
October 24th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Next F*cker that gives me a negative score I will FORECLOSE on and repossess their Beamer…ahahahaha
October 24th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
It’s a safe bet Dave is a realtor and Alexcanuck is a wussy. Dave is only outnumbered ten to one right now, better keep quiet Alex, we know you don’t like stress.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
Freako, you might want to revist Gomez’s constant flip flop.
He primed the pump as well.
“Canada’s red-hot housing market is on a solid foundation because there is very little evidence of speculative activity,” says Gomez. “While a modest cooling is in the cards this year and next, there are a number of misconceptions about the state of this housing market and where it’s going.”
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages.....bubble.htm
and:
http://www.realestateinvesting.....Bubble.pdf
I will admit he was not as shameless as Tsur,Patrick, or Muir.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Dave { 10.21.08 at 4:16 am }
Yes, I am a realtor. I try to deny it, but it’s getting harder and harder to suppress.
Posted on Rob’s blog a few days ago.
Crazy because of how breathtakingly wrong you were when you started posting.
Dangerous because of what listening to people like you can do to a young persons financial future.
October 24th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
I remember when my co-workers were all bidding on houses in 2006. One was so stressed because she and her husband kept being outbid. One day she finally had the highest bid and she was flying for a good year and a half. Pouring money into her new house. About half of them bought new houses in 2006. They were all so giddy. And now, as someone said, the thrill is gone. Two have been trying to sell since May this year with no luck. When I ask people at work how they are now they just say “Good”. No smile, no dancing, no excitedly telling me about how they are “business people”. Just “Good”.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
lotsa “bear blog”
he said she said tonite…..
whatsa matter
market too scary to talk about?
BOO!
October 24th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
hey scullboy
…and Don’t forget the flying monkeys
ahahahahahahahahhaaaaaahhhhhhaaaaaaahhhhhhaaaaa
October 24th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Welcome to the “Dave Hour”
Guesr host “Dave”
Sponsored by “Dave” and friends
(oh s-h-o-o-t me
p-l-e-a-s-e )
October 24th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Anonymous:
I certainly do. It was the exact moment (just after I moved here) when I realized the RE market was f**ked and everyone who had bought in was wayyyyyy too stupid and greedy to see what was coming.
I’m told I have an evil laugh in real life…. several of my friends want me to hang out and frighten the neighborhood children oh Haloween…. so….
Muaahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Scream suckers scream, it’ll do you no good. That’s it pretties….. run! Run for the exits! It’s too late, you’re already dead!
Muahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
October 24th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Remember when Vancity was pumping mortgages for “friends to share”…
October 24th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Yes, gomez is a hero of sorts. Kept me in my right mind when everyone was saying buy, buy, buy. Remember Vancity’s motto back then “I want, I want”….
October 24th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
“Yawn… Anon, what’s the point of bringing up that post. I called for a 15 to 20% correction in it. Last time I checked, we aren’t there yet.”
refresh my memory… was that the prediction you made to correct your earlier prediction? you know, the one you wanted to be on record for since your first recorded one was incorrect?
October 24th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
I am a realtor
October 24th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Of course no review would be complete without quotes from Phil Soper, or Flaherty
Carl Gomez, Craig Alexander, and Tony Joe.
Carl Gomez is my hero. Seriously. He deserves some credit for going out on a limb about the Vancouver market.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Anon, a realtor I am not.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Sarah asked you:
You are a realtor, right?
October 24th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Anon, that is not true. Her question was not conditional on my being a realtor.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Dave: the point of the post is that Sarah asked you to give her advice if you were a REALTOR, and you did. So implicitly you are a realtor.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Alex, how is calling for a 15 to 20% correction crazy and dangerous?
Funny how people here don’t attack posters who predict a downside difference of the same magnitude from their own prediction. It’s very telling about how insecure many are in their analysis. Wishful thinking perhaps?
October 24th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Yawn… Anon, what’s the point of bringing up that post. I called for a 15 to 20% correction in it. Last time I checked, we aren’t there yet.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
If only one Dave can post and it’s locked to Dave@revnyou
Where do get this from? Was “Dave” registered at the time of revnyou-Daves posting? Do you have access to The Pope’s computer? Don’t derail a good thread, please!
Treat Dave the person with the respect another human deserves. Treat his crazy and dangerous ideas about the state of Vancouver RE with the contempt they deserve. Only way he will learn. Public mockery actually works quite well in getting a person to adjust their thinking. I like that idea about pulling up some of his early “predictions” to laugh at. But let’s not get too vicious just because it’s “fun” to join in the bullying.
October 24th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
kaeotp: That is a great idea!
October 24th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Hello Mr. Pope, is there any chance of having a review of what the experts have said in the last year?
You know a trip down memory lane, regarding the scientific and unbiased report which was published in the Vancouver Sun something about the myths regarding RE in Vancouver and how it was an infallible investment.
We could throw in a few links with quotes from Pastrick, Muir, Robyn Admanche, and I forgot who it was but it was a realtor who pumped North Van and claimed the region was “ bullet proof” .
Perhaps we can top it off with some insightful quotes from Tal, Holt, and Tsur.
Of course no review would be complete without quotes from Phil Soper, or Flaherty
Carl Gomez, Craig Alexander, and Tony Joe.
October 24th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
From Daves website
“About Dave Peniuk & Julie Broad
As if being newlyweds and real estate investing partners wasn’t enough – we’ve decided to do adventure races together too! So if we’re not at work (where we both work in the real estate industry in Vancouver)”
October 24th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Quite the opposite, which is why “Dave” is just as anonymous as “anonymous”.
October 24th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
If only one Dave can post and it’s locked to Dave@revnyou then Dave must be Dave.
Dave are you denying that you are Dave Peniuk?
Are you denying being a realtor?
Are you denying that you just got your mortgage brokers license?
Are you denying being wrong about everything you’ve posted?