344 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”
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October 25th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
RE #199
I’ve been waiting for these stories of fraud to come out in the MSM. Tales of peoples foolishness and fraudulent real-estate dealings marks the death of a bubble.
(if you needed any more signs)
Look for a paper called “historic turning points in Real Estate” Robert J. Shiller. It touches on the similarities in a bunch of cases reflected by the kind of stories told.
October 25th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Don’t know if someone posted this already, but more good news bwahahaaha
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servle.....lumbiaHome
October 25th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
STu says “I’ve seen a lot of water go under the bridge, I’ve forgotten more than you’ve learned” Okay Stu doubt you’ve seen much in the way of water, and all of us don’t have Alzeimers (yet), the thing I notice most is that my generation (the boomers) are pretty well a bunch of idiots! Easy gravy times, big wages no responsibility, kinda proud of my kids trouble is they will and have to be twice as smart as me! There is no good deals out here nary a one, wait three years and pick whatever is on the market up for 70 % less then today!
October 25th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Stu: I hear marijuana use is bad for the memory. So sorry.
October 25th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Oh, and Stu, another you need to know is not to be sexist. This is the internet, not a masonic lodge!
October 25th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Stu: you’re not really a blogger until someone calls you a dumbass, so here goes: “Dumbass Stu!”
October 25th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Don’t worry son, I’ve seen a lot of water go under the bridge, I’ve forgotten more than you’ve learned. There are some excellent condos available on the plateau, highly recommended.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
At the top of the boom in 1981 west side bungalows were going for the unheard, incomprehensible amount of 300,000 dollars.
That’s right, and a few years later the same houses were selling for 150K. I know a guy who bought one.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Stu: nice cop-out. When in doubt there is always the airhead response “I’m just new here”.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Prices can’t drop if there are no buyers.
There are always people who are willing and able to buy.
There are also always people who have to sell due to death, divorce, relocation, etc.
The point where the number of buyers equals the number of sellers is called the market price.
There will always be sales because there are always people who have to sell.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Ha Ha, I’m relatively new to this blogging technology, it is a bit fun. I can see why the kids wonder around pounding their blackberries all day.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Stu: come clean now — how many WP condos are you trying to unload?
October 25th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Is Stu just another John trying to take the blog off topic? It looks like satv is trying a bit harder but he’s still an idiot.
If a townhouse can’t sell for $467 / sq ft in yaletown how are the specuvestors going to get double that for all the new units that are about to go up for sale?
We have a shortage of renters and buyers here but otherwise everything is great!
October 25th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
stu: Have you ever thought of writing a book? Sounds like you’ve got one in there (wink, wink).
October 25th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
stu: do you live in Coquitlam by any chance? Westwood Plateau perchance?
October 25th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
At the top of the boom in 1981 west side bungalows were going for the unheard, incomprehensible amount of 300,000 dollars. The eastern outpost of Coquitlam was under contstant logging to build new subdivisions, Coquitlam was being transformed from untouched rain forest to single family housing for those growing families looking for a rural experience.
October 25th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Anyone who bought a house at the very top of the bubble in 1981 looks like a genius today.
Because they broke even (in real terms) after 25 years? You need to raise your standards of what “genius” means.
No more land? Thank god Canada has an ample supply.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Stu: sorry to say, but you sound a bit ill informed.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:43 am
I understand what you guys are saying, nonetheless i think real estate is a good investment, generally the cash flow gets better over time. I’m not big on stocks, contrary to what many think stocks are not a good inflation or deflation hedge.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:42 am
stu: anyone who bought a house at half price after the 1981 crash is even more of a genius and didn’t have to go through a world of hurt for the past 20 years to pay for it.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:40 am
“They’re not making any more land here, keep in mind peoples.”
That is so true, and everyone should know how fast land wears out, and that it is virtually impossible for people who own a lot of land to get involved in municipal politics and get the land rezoned for development.
It is also true super rich foreigners buy up whatever miniscule land supply we have in British Columbia, and they get it towed to Asia and we never see the land again.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:39 am
stu: did you pass your IQ test? e.g., did you get more than 70?
October 25th, 2008 at 11:37 am
stu: that’s a BIG “if”. and the question is — will they look like geniuses tomorrow?
October 25th, 2008 at 11:36 am
stu: that’s a BIG “if”.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Anyone who bought a house at the very top of the bubble in 1981 looks like a genius today. Assumption being they handled the negative cash flow for a few years. They’re not making any more land here, keep in mind peoples.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:20 am
“Tony Joe, Victoria Real Estate Board president, responded by saying that there are pockets in the U.S. where the housing market is healthy.
If there is a bust in Canada, “There’s going to be insulated places in the country and with all the attributes that Victoria has, of all the places in the country, we are probably best-insulated,” Joe said yesterday.
In its favour, the capital region has a diversified economy supported by government, tourism, military, retirees, technology and education. Forecasts of net migration of 3,500 this year, plus the shortage of rental housing, further insulate this region, he said”
Just keeping an eye on the pimps,who saw nothing wrong with speculating,hyping and pumping out of reach,from the average joe, a basic human need, such as housing.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:17 am
post 167 john,
Will you stop with the rich asian thing. That is so sterotypical. Not all asians are rich some have very modest incomes. Just becaause they haave Mc Mansions…doesn’t mean rich . They could be leveraged to the hilt. We live in a consumerist society…it’s not what we need it’s what we want now!
The very fact that you think SUVs are good value shows your apitutude for investment. It depreciates in value once you drive it off the lot. You might want to check howw much your Plasma/ LCD Tv is worth now. You probably can’t get whaat you paaid for it. Same as your SUV.
Condos are nice…good intrinsic value but still susceptable to demand and supply…there is an whole lot coming into the market in 09-10. The developers try to time it to hit the olympic crowd. There is no way they can retain there curreent value with such a vast supply and continually increasing credit restrictions.
Credit cards a modern savings accounts…haave you seen the % they chaarge. Don’t pay your credit card for a few months . See how much you aare hit in extra payments. It’s an convenience.
I ‘m aam asian by the way…like every other ethnic group there is rich and poor..
But I probably just wasting my time. You believe the beach culture/ quality here is equivalent to the US california, Daytona, Venice…etc
good luck with that
October 25th, 2008 at 11:10 am
Guess when this was said:
“The continued strength of the real estate market is a reflection of the economic vitality seen throughout the province. With overall wages on the rise and unemployment in decline, buyers and sellers are left with a healthy and strong climate in which to operate,” says REBGV president Brian Naphtali.
http://www.realtylink.org/what.....?news=0108
Just keeping an eye on the pimps.
October 25th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Most government workers need not worry I think.
In the early 80′s govt. workers were forced to accept a 10% pay cut rather than the govt. laying off 10% of the workers.
So they all kept their jobs, but a 10% cut hurts — and a similar cut now would really hurt, when people have no savings — i.e. they spend all they make and more.
October 25th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Gadwin,
you did not get the fact straight go attend the world summit where top leaders are trying to figure out how to put diapers on stock investor while home owners still own their house watching crunch on their high definition television.
Also get these fact straight your math is wrong and self designed watch the forbes list next year only bill gates has managed to survive some how with his fakely claimed secure vista (still you need nortan as before),every one else is bleeding wake up dum head try to under stand whats going on around you basement hat.
October 25th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Wow lots of Internet Tough Guys in here. IQ scores? Come on people. It seems like these interesting times bring out the worst in people. Drachen, how’s the air up there on Mt. Olympus? How do you tolerate us plebs and mouth breathers every day?
And on the topic of Dave, he has a point of view, point out he’s wrong and move on, or ignore him. Who cares what he does? If he has an agenda it will show through. Certainly nobody on this blog is going to influence the Metro Vancouver RE market in any real way.
October 25th, 2008 at 10:23 am
As for the discussion of stocks versus real estate, most people lose less on stocks than on real estate. The majority of people that purchase real estate will get a mortgage of some sort – that is, they need to borrow. When you borrow money for a mortgage, that is equivalent to going on margin for stocks in a long position.
Ironically, most people don’t go on margin for stocks – they simply buy it with cash and hold (ie. think of all the mutual funds people own). Thus, if you include the real estate you own as part of your portfolio, then almost everybody’s portfolio is heavily weighted in the real estate they own.
For instance, somebody that owns a $1 million dollar house may only have $100K in stocks. Now if stocks go down by 50%, this person loses $50K. But if real estate goes down by 30%, this person loses $300K.
Unless you buy on margin, stocks can only ruin your current net worth. Real estate on the other hand will ruin your life 20 years down the road.
For those specuvestors that are stuck watching their property values plummet, they will be paying for their mistakes 20 years down the road. If you’re a specuvestor, you need to cut price and get out of the market now because you know at heart, you’re losing that much more money as the real estate market plummets.
October 25th, 2008 at 10:20 am
I took a mail order IQ test once, i paid for the more expensive one as it guaranteed a higher number. Smart people like cartoons.
October 25th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Here’s some bull facts for you :
1) The stock market has tanked completely. If you were a RE bear and invested in the stock market congratulations you lost 5-10 years of your life. Good job.
2) Real estate remains one of the best investments out there. I own many condos and SUVs and it’s truly the best thing that’s ever happened to me.
3) Credit cards and lines of credit are like modern savings accounts. If you don’t borrow at these rates you’re a fool.
4) Rich asians are still rich. They were the ones who sold their stocks before the RE bears did. Now they’re buying condos. Meanwhile bears are still hungry.
October 25th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Economist article on China’s property crash
My favourite tidbit:
The Chinese press says that in September around 100 homeowners in the eastern city of Hangzhou stormed into the offices of Vanke, a big developer, to demand compensation for falling prices.
Didn’t take the Chinese long to learn the Whiny School variety of capitalism, did it?
October 25th, 2008 at 9:55 am
I remember visiting one of my friends who lives in Van West in the Spring of 2006. She and her family had been experiencing extreme financial difficulty due to health issues (the family breadwinner had suffered a debilitating accident). Well, on the day of my visit she had just returned from the bank and she was exuberantly dancing around exclaiming how wonderful the world was — how beautiful her neighborhood is, and so on and so on. It almost seemed like she had taken a euphoric drug of sorts. Well, apparently the bank is not treating her as well anymore — the family home of 25 years is up for sale.
October 25th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Please, folks, excuse Dave’s aggression. It is part and parcel of the realty check he is experiencing during this difficult time in his career.
Dave: I’ll see you at 2 then?
October 25th, 2008 at 9:28 am
FYI, my IQ = 155 (yes I’ve been tested)
And you call me the blowhard?
I am not so insecure that I feel I need to post my IQ or defend my intelligence.
October 25th, 2008 at 9:28 am
The bubble was fuelled by discouraging saving, printing money, and creating debt.
Now the people are fed (pun intended), the myth, that if you discourage saving, by lowering interest rates further, and encourage more debt, that somehow things will right themselves.
Oil is priced in the $60’s, down from the $140’s, copper, trees, and basic materials prices have crashed, the $cad is down by 20%, good paying jobs are disappearing, and being replaced by $15.00/hr jobs.
Most people I know still can’t connect the dots; they think the housing troubles are just in Detroit, I was at a social gathering earlier this week, and the general consensus was that Vancouver RE might only appreciate 4 or 5% for the next couple of years, but should resume its upward trend thereafter.
Bill Good, and his financial panel of experts, has done an incredible job of mass hypnosis.
October 25th, 2008 at 9:26 am
looks like satv is back, only with a different name and he’s left his english mangler behind. very clear case of why we need the invisible tiny text feature.
October 25th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Van Man speaks the truth.
So much of the trauma and shock around this inevitable downturn is not people going broke, it’s people’s precious LIFESTYLES being threatened:
Baby Boomers realizing they may not be able to retire at the age they wanted, live the way they did when they had steady income, travel around the world etc(you know all the crap they show in those “freedom 55″ commercials) – and their kids who (through no fault of their own) have been spoiled rotten by a boom economy and have come to expect a coddling job market and promotions, new cars, new clothes, vacations, and owning a house in your twenties or early thirties (all debt financed naturally).
Economies cycle. Get used to it.
October 25th, 2008 at 9:13 am
More Gomez from the same 2005 report:
“Thus, the only reasonable explanation for the outsized pace of price growth in Vancouver’s condo market is due to heightened expectations of future capital appreciation or put simply, speculation. For example, the user cost of capital suggests that a current condo “investor” in Vancouver is likely to be willing to accept below-fair-value rental yields since they assume that future price appreciation will cover the loss. It does not matter whether such an “investor” plans to flip the property in six months, one year or two years. All that matters is that an investor’s decision to buy has been predicated on expectations of significant future price growth – the exact definition of a price bubble.
Potential homeowners are also capable of such speculation if they are willing to purchase a condo whose costs of ownership are greater than the cost of renting a comparable property. Again, this potential homeowner has made the decision to buy based on the belief that significant capital gains in the future will offset any losses incurred by not renting currently. ”
October 25th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Re: Carl Gomez.
In 2005 he actually crunched some detailed numbers and said the following:
“However, there is little justification for the double-digit pace of condo price growth beyond speculation (see below) suggesting that these properties may be at the heart of a potential housing bubble in Vancouver.”
“Meanwhile, condo prices in Vancouver have been accelerating well ahead of what would be implied by the user cost of capital. In fact, even allowing for a generous 5 per cent ownership risk premium, the current rate of condo price appreciation is still about 10–15 percentage points faster than what it should be, suggesting that Vancouver’s condo market may now be at its most overvalued point in years. What is responsible for this situation?”
October 25th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Drachen: A bit of free advice — not a good idea to publicize your IQ. The average is 100 and 70 represents developmental delay. The standard deviation is 15, so 99% of the population fall between 70 and 130. To say that you are more than 3 standard deviations above average makes you, well, deviant in a way. It’s kinda like someone saying they have a penis the size of a baseball bat — we just don’t want to hear people bragging.
http://tinyurl.com/2nv4t2
October 25th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Anyone else notice this one didn’t sell? (Bet they appreciated the showing on the Global article!)
V712572
967 BEATTY ST
155 days on market
$467 per square foot
Showings Friday October 24th 5-7 PM and Saturday October 25th 11-1 PM. Offers will be presented on Saturday October 25th by 5 PM. Don’t miss out on this great opportunity.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:56 am
“I still stand by what I said:”
fuck off
forbes list of dummers like you just got disapear the only wealth they have got left is their real estate you fucking idiot no body is idiot like you- no fucking body.
how do you like this math?fucking dum head
October 25th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Hi folks, I am Dave’s therapist and I would like to apologize for his behavior. You must understand that he is a realtor, and it is very common if not a requirement for realtors to suffer from a condition called delusional psychosis. They also tend toward narcissism. I am trying my best with Dave who I try to see for an hour a week. Most of my realtor clients, once they come to the realization that they have the delusional condition, due in part to the industry’s cult-like characteristics coupled with their own sense of insecurity and greed, will quit the profession and go on to try another career. We are seeing this happen in large numbers now because the market is forcing them to acknowledge reality and it is becoming more and more difficult for the delusional condition to grow and flourish. Please be patient as there are only so many therapists to go around and we are extremely busy these days with stressed home-sellers, stressed recent home-buyers and laid off construction workers and their families. Take care and remember that having financial security is the best cure for mental distress.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Dave
I was just trying to help you out buddy, I’m tired of seeing all the crazy speculation about you.
FYI, my IQ = 155 (yes I’ve been tested)
I don’t see what you could have found very insulting in the rest of that (is college educated an insult now?) nor do I see how any reasonable and intelligent person could think I was describing myself. The fact that you’re feeling insulted that I said you have an above average IQ says something about your personality though (OCD anyone? insecurity about your intelligence?).
October 25th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Alexcanuck: You are so right. The market doesn’t lie. p.s. I like your name!
October 25th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Right on, scullboy. I’m looking at a career change and going back to school, and I’ve never been so thankful to be a renter with money in the bank.
People are now going to discover how homoanership can remove their ability to escape the rat race and build a better life. Its a trap.