344 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”
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October 26th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
The Vancouver RE pimps aren’t bad forecasters, or bad economists.
They knew, eventually they could write off their lies to some external event.
They are trained economists, and as such they would have had enough knowledge after their first economics course to know that this would not end well.
Re prices in Vancouver were propelled by hype, and the magic of interest rates which were kept artificially low, and below inflation by the central bankers.
Had Vancouverites somehow become so productive, that the average incomes of 250k/ yr, could be justified, then the current prices could be supported.
But debt supported high prices through artificial ultra low interest rates will always collapse, always have, always will-yes even with the Olympics.
October 26th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Either you aren’t good at reading comprehension or you are deliberately lying. Look at the quote you referenced. Look at the key words, ‘in other words’, which refers to my prediction on the magnitude of the correction. The market went up about 10 to 15 percent in the proceeding 12 to 18 months.
Read the thread again, I said the market would be +/- 10%.
October 26th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
I also pointed out that an external event, such as the current banking crisis, would add more downside. From what I recall, nobody here predicted the events that have transpired the last couple months.
Dude, you have NOT been listening. We have ALL been predicting this, many of us put our money where our mouths were by shorting stocks in homebuilders, banks, CRE, etc. Your problem was you jumped into this blog in June 2008 without reading ANY of the previous posts and started with all of the arguments that have already been debunked on countless other bear blogs, which led to one of the longest threads in history.
In that one thread, I found the following three statements from you: (paraphrasing)
1.) It’s different here.
2.) A permanently high plateau is possible (you said it had happened before)
3.) They aren’t making any more land.
You are covering your ears and screaming “la la la” while the rest of us are screaming at you about fundamentals, systemic risk, etc. You’re probably going to want me to go back and look up all those posts as proof, but why bother. They’re all there for you to see, right there on the allknowing googles.
vancouver.condo.info
mish
calculatedrisk
thehousingbubbleblog
patrick.net
VHB (RIP)
House Hunt Victoria
Victoria’s Truth
And many, many more…
My prediction still stands, though. I predicted that you would use “external events” as an excuse, and I gave 100% certainty. And you just did it. I win.
QED.
October 26th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
“Canada’s housing prices are undervalued by 2%.” Sounds entirely reasonable. But remember thats the average across Canada. Vancouver is likely equal to Britain or possibly Ireland, Alberta to the US, Ontario (with the exception of Toronto) is probably 0 and Quebec and the Maritimes well below -2. Great link! Watching the Pimps!
October 26th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Nice find, but you took it out of context. The 12-18 months of gains refers to the amount of the correction. That is, past corrections have generally removed this amount of gain.
Sorry, but you were CLEARLY referring to months of GAINS. Please see below (you took a pounding on that thread too.)
Dave Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
…However, going forward… sitting on the sidelines for an extended period (again 12 to 18 months) will likely cost you.
Dave Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Yes, I believe prices will be higher 12 to 18 months from now. I think we will have a couple 5% years and perhaps a small drop after that. Overall, mostly flat.
Dave Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Noname, I never said a drop wouldn’t occur. I am basically predicting a flat market for a number of years going forward. What I am saying is that IF a drop does occur, it will likely be relatively shallow (i.e. giving up less than 10%).
And now for the punchline…
Dave Says:
June 14th, 2008 at 11:22 am
…No doubt that prices are currently high by most metrics (price to rent, price to income, affordability, etc…). If you look at all those metrics you will find that they are similar to the prior peaks. That suggests to me a potential correction would be similar to past behaviour.
But, I think things are different than before…
October 26th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Dave: Looks like you already lost, buddy. Pay up.
October 26th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
I found Dave’s prediction… I remembered making my own prediction based on his prediction. You can see clearly that he predicted 12-18 months of gains, in the following post:
Nice find, but you took it out of context. The 12-18 months of gains refers to the amount of the correction. That is, past corrections have generally removed this amount of gain.
I also pointed out that an external event, such as the current banking crisis, would add more downside. From what I recall, nobody here predicted the events that have transpired the last couple months.
October 26th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
BTW, I amgiving myself a pat on the back for my dead-on prediction about Helmut. Didn’t he just come out and say that house prices are falling because of an external event (the financial turmoil.)?
Oh, and I also predict it applies to other “educated bulls” such as Muir and Pastrick.
October 26th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
I found Dave’s prediction… I remembered making my own prediction based on his prediction. You can see clearly that he predicted 12-18 months of gains, in the following post:
June 16th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Freako, put me down for 12 to 18 months of gains. In other words, if there is a correction, then I predict values will drop from 10 to 15% (nominally). So, if it breaks 15%, I will have been wrong.
I will further add that a correction of greater than 10% will only occur due to an external factor (e.g. higher interest rates > 1.5%, higher unemployment ~ + 2%, or a recession)
As far as the upside, if prices appreciate more than 10% to 15% in the next two years, then I will have been wrong.
And what is your number on both on the upside and downside?
holgs Says:
June 16th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Sorry to join in the gang up. Dave, I see what you did here:
I will further add that a correction of greater than 10% will only occur due to an external factor (e.g. higher interest rates > 1.5%, higher unemployment ~ + 2%, or a recession)
You know that a correction will cause much greater than 1.5% higher unemployment, right?
If the estimate of 1/6th of new jobs in construction is true, then what of the remaining percentage is
- mortgage brokering
- real estate sales
- furniture sales
- electritical
- harley dealers
I personally know a bunch of people my age (~30 years) that are in construction or real estate. Probably a good 20-30%, of my camping buddies are in to that field. And all of them own at least one home.
My prediction is this, one year from now, unemployment will be on the rise due to housing sales tanking and prices beginning their downfall, and you will come back here and point to the job losses as the reason, rather than a consequence, for the downturn.
I predict that my prediction will be 100% true (+/- 2%) within the next two years.
Oh, and I also predict it applies to other “educated bulls” such as Muir and Pastrick.
October 26th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Our landlord is at our house right now looking to make some repairs. She is in a panic to sell the house. The reason from what I can understand is that her investments/ investment incomes have declined and she needs a cash injection fast. She doesn’t seem to be taking into account the direction that real estate prices are heading.
I wonder how many other landlords are watching their stock market investments decline and putting their homes on the market to make up for those loses? And how will this affect inventory/prices?
October 26th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Our landlord is at our house right now looking to make some repairs. She is in a panic to sell the house. The reason from what I can understand is that her investments/ investment incomes have declined and she needs a cash injection fast. She doesn’t seem to be taking into account the direction that real estate prices are heading.
I wonder how many other landlords are watching their stock market investments decline and putting their homes on the market to make up for those loses? And how is that going to affect inventory / prices?
October 26th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Cancelled projects list….???
I agree there must be lots of them. In my view, anyone that has met a given Local Gov’t approval (ie passed 4th reading)BUT has not proceeded should be on the “cancelled project list”.
In hindsight, there were earlier warning signs, and based on:
(i) labour shortages, high costs for labour and materials ie blown budgets
VERSUS
(ii)now it is credit ” outages ” and ” customer shortages ” .
The former was likley a precursor to the latter…ie the writing was on the wall it was all heating up out of control towards a major climatic meltdown.
October 26th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Old pearl of wisdom re: Realtors and a career in Real Estate
” You can’t make a living….but you can make a killing ” .
Prety much explains it.
Get lucky during the boom , get frustrated when its over, move on. When they recruit em’, its often not due to demand, but high attrition rate. Most know F*ck all re the product, simply promotional embellishments and stretches of the truth.
One ex realtor I met in my travels (who since converted to the trades) said he was once the top realtor in his area, but found everyone nipping at his heels, trying to take him down and his title/crown .
However his honesty was refreshing,,saying he is not selling your house , anyone can sell your home, he is selling himself….ie him selling himself as a commodity to you to get HIM to sell your home. I agree, and he was very candid about that.
October 26th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Are strata liens senior to the mortgage? The article doesn’t say. For sure nothing is senior to property taxes.
But what has me shaking my head is that the condo owner didn’t know that the strata could lien the assessments against the condo. Well hello folks – you don’t really own that condo at all, just a share in a corporation.
October 26th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Yet another reason to fear stratas. When someone else in your building runs into trouble, you could end up paying the bill.
http://tinyurl.com/5a5rr3
October 26th, 2008 at 11:06 am
think these guys will be very busy over next three years. They take over a lot of development projects that go belly up.
http://www.bowragroup.com/
October 26th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Keeping an Eye on The Pimps,
Could you please also write your name in french because some poster did not understand your motive and you have nail down three after you.
Anyway thanks for the link it works as eye opener still more to come.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Ted – regarding list of cancelled projects. My bet is the list is a lot longer than that. Projects are either too small to make it on the radar screen or the developer doesn’t want to publicize the cancellation for fear of hurting current sales in earlier phases of projects.
My guess is there a few developers who are using cancellations/deferment as a tactic to renegotiate contracts. They know that with many projects nearing completion that if their project were put out to bid today costs would be much lower than a year or so ago.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Ted, you’re missing a few from the Eden group. They had Sophia, Montgomery Estates, and Elyse.
Chandler Development lost H+H and Garden City Tower to bankruptcy.
Also there was Riverbend in Coquitlam, that was one of the first that I remember.
October 26th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Your right Exx more realtors will quit or find second jobs. IMO we will not see realtors exiting the business as fast as in the prior busts because now realtors are allowed to have second jobs. This was only implemented a few years back. Without it there would be an absolute flood of agents leaving the business. All of my colleagues are stressed out and they should be.
This bust will go down in history.
October 26th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, said both Calgary and Edmonton are now “much firmer markets” than just a few months ago.
Hurry, hurry hurry, get yours today before they run out of land in Calagary and Edmonton
Don’t let it be said that Gregory didn’t warn you!
http://www.edmontonsun.com/New.....1-sun.html
October 26th, 2008 at 9:03 am
“had a zero (or better) “house price gap.” Canada emerged as one of these, with average house prices 2 per cent less than the fundamental worth. ”
Yes, indeed, figures don’t lie but liars can sure figure, according to this:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/Business
Canada’s housing prices are undervalued by 2%.
That’s right folks, housing prices in Canada are 2% less than what the fundamentals would support, so let’s all go to the bank Monday, and get a 700k mortgage so we can buy a crack house on Hastings and Victoria.-The Best Real Estate in the Best Place on Earth.
The IMF says it’s a good deal, and Globe reports it’s true.
October 26th, 2008 at 7:16 am
Hmmm:
Baby Boomers started about 1946.
So the lead edge is about 62 years old. Many of them used the stock market and real estate as investment vehicles to secure their retirement. Ouch !
Given it takes about 6-8 years for the economic cycle to rebound, I can forsee a lot of grief for these old boomer hippies who can’t really wait. I am not sure the economic system will ever rebound to the heights the boomers once had or came to expect .
The negative trickle down effect ?…here we come. !!!! Not that I am not sympthetic, but then again their excesses may have lead to them being authors of their own demise.
Ah, well light up a joint…it worked before, right?
October 26th, 2008 at 12:47 am
Agents dropping out of real estate business
“The longer we see markets at the current level of sales, the more chance we’ll see a decline in the number of realtors in the province, as some realtors choose to take early retirement or choose to hang up their licences due to lack of business,” says Muir.
From my experience, this means less strippers/realtors and more realtors/strippers. Yikes! Just kidding, you can’t just become a stripper. There are standards.
October 26th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Has anybody put together a list of all the canceled or ‘on hold’ condo projects in BC, or an updated Vancouver condo supply list? Just off the top of my head I think the following projects have been put on indefinite hold in the last month or so:
Ritz Carlton – West Georgia
Evelyn – North Van
V6A – Downtown East Side
Skytower – Surrey
Capella – Victoria
Lucaya – Kelowna
Am I missing any?
October 25th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
and every other kind of capitalist propaganda imaginable
Good post but I will quibble with this. Real capitalism means investing to produce income (real goods and services), not buying something just because you think you can sell it to someone for more later.
The real capitalist propaganda has come from the critics of the bubble, not its apologists. What you are talking about is pseudo-capitalist or casino economy propaganda. Which is something different yet again from anti-capitalist or socialist propaganda.
October 25th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
CONGRATULATIONS EVERYONE
I just watched the Global Video and want thank everyone here for their persistence in the face of constant hype, illogical arguments, detractors trying to wear us down and every other kind of capitalist propaganda imaginable but the truth has prevailed finally. People here who tried to expose this BS “Vancouver is special” hype should sit down pat themselves on the back and celebrate. I wish someone would organize a part somewhere and invite all of those who in any way fought this fine battle even if in their own ways. There is room for all kinds in the fight (including gold bugs LOL) and I have to say I am beside myself with pride in this group.
To the evil real estate and building industry in BC that profited from the misery of our own local people and marketed our homes to foreign investors I can only think of one thing to say..F.O.A.D
October 25th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Anon #221
If we want to impliment professors analogy/theory there won’t be better time than what we are experiencing these days but recent released report suggest that luxury market in vancouver countinue to defy market trend so shiller have no idea other than maybe or maybe not nobody takes responsibility,lynch did not took so does global news all of them same word may fall,may catch,may follow,following is second example which also defy what shiller got in his improper halloween dress.
“Uber-prime” real estate still hot in London
known as the “super-” or even “uber-prime” slice of the market and typically priced upwards of 20 million ($37 million) pounds — is still far ahead of supply.
And, fuelled by oil and commodity prices which are adding to the wealth of emerging market millionaires, the appetite is showing no sign of slowing under the weight of the credit crunch that is crippling average homeowners, lenders and businesses.Professor deserve some rest now.
Nobody!!!!!
October 25th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
I would say that fear is always present in the later stages of a market decline, and fear is sufficient to precipitate a market decline, but fear is not necessary to precipitate a market decline. People may still expect price appreciation but simply not have the money to buy, or everyone who wants to buy may have already bought.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Patriotz:
Here are some old articles on Shiller’s theory:
http://tinyurl.com/5gnnuc
http://tinyurl.com/5gk2zg
He basically stated that it’s psychology (feverish greed) that builds the bubble and lack of confidence (fear) that crashes it.
October 25th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Shiller said it is psychology that pops a bubble, and I have to say the psychology in this town has changed!
I have to disagree with this. In Alberta the market turned at the very same time oil prices doubled. Hard to blame psychology for that.
Bubbles pop because supply outruns demand. Doesn’t matter what people think.
The change in psychology happens later, when people notice that it has become hard to sell and/or a general economic downturn hits. It took from the market top in April to today for psychology to change here. During the 80′s bust it took a whole year from the market top in 1981.
October 25th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Yes, the ass does seem to be following those of us with open minds.
Seriously though, Stu-pid…. is there some sort of window – licker support group that is handing out this blog’s URL? Do you, Krrish, Dosh and Rob all know each other? It is like a Tuesday night thing?
If you’re here to help, could you just please…. you know… fuck off? And can you take Krrrrish with you?
That would be very helpful.
October 25th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Stu: you’re creepy.
October 25th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Sorry son, i cannot banter at this time, the Canucks are doing fan appreciation night. 82 and 94 seem like ages ago. One of the few things i remember. ha ha
October 25th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Stu, the relationship between aluminum and alzheimer’s was not scientifically substantiated. And it’s longterm use of marijuana that causes memory loss, not just the new stuff.
What kind of condo’s are you holding? Anything interesting?
October 25th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
I recommend three things:
be carefull with today’s marijuana
don’t cook using aluminum pots
take some risks in life
Scullboy, I’m here to help son, open your mind the ass will follow.
October 25th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Found this over at condohype:
# condohype Says:
October 24, 2008 at 7:30 pm
BREAKING NEWS! The B.C. Superintendent of Real Estate has launched an investigation into Onni’s disclosure practices connected to V6A.
October 25th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Hey Stu:
If you’ve forgotten more then most of us know, you might wanna pile on the ol’ ginko biloba because your last few posts have me thinking your last name might be “pid”.
I can’t believe I’m the first one to use that line.
You might want to consider how much interest someone would have paid over 25 years on a $300,000 dollar mortgage. Did you factor in the cost of borrowing money to pay for the asset when you said real estate’s a good investment? No? How about taxes? Repairs and renovations?
Somehow I doubt you’ve forgotten more then I know. God I hate arrogant boomers. I really want to see most of them eating dog food in the street.
Except you, Strata. YOu seem pretty cool.
October 25th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Dave, all of the post is black.
October 25th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Dave you start out your post #163 by stating:
FYI, my IQ = 155 (yes I’ve been tested)
Anon, the reason that part is in black is because it is a quote from Drachen. Go back in the thread and see for yourself.
October 25th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Wow, looks like Krrrrish has grown himself a new personality:
fuck off
forbes list of dummers like you just got disapear the only wealth they have got left is their real estate you fucking idiot no body is idiot like you- no fucking body.
how do you like this math?fucking dum head
Does anyone want to comment on the irony or krrish mis – spelling “dum”? Krrish buddy you normally don’t swear like that…. and I notice you’re not saying “real estate goes up forever” or anything like that.
Something wrong, buddy? Is your condo losing value? is your six-figure warehouse job not paying as much?
Gosh buddy, I feel really bad for you. I mean you must have thought you were going to retire off the value of that condo. I bet you thought the thing would go for at least as much as a midtown Manhattan loft.
Ah krrish, I have been waiting fir this moment for two long years. Believe that I am sincere when I say stick around. Post often. Vent your anger on here.
I wanna read aaaaalllll about it.
October 25th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Dave you start out your post #163 by stating:
FYI, my IQ = 155 (yes I’ve been tested)
October 25th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Dave, we had a good session today. Try to stay on track now. Behavior modification is not easy, but if you are mindful small changes can add up. Be a good boy, now. Good luck!
October 25th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Re: Post # 126
So far (24) Foreclosures (and a few Beamers to be repossessed).
October 25th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Anon, try reading the thread again. I wasn’t the one posting my IQ.
October 25th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Sorry, my link was anon 199. Meant to give credit, messed up HTML
October 25th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Shiller said it is psychology that pops a bubble, and I have to say the psychology in this town has changed!
October 25th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Dave,
You ID isn’t even 55. Do you even know what it takes to have an IQ of 155. You are full of shit.
October 25th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
from the comments of http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servle.....lumbiaHome excellent link.
Make up a name so we know who you are if you’re posting finds like that!
“linz
Re: Province investigating condo developer Onni.
This story is a testament to the negativity you spread on a daily bases. The fact that these condo developments are not been completed is a huge benefit to the people that bought in. Every one of these buyers will have their down payments returned to them. They have all purchased at the height of the market. If the project was to go ahead they would be living in the condo while watching the value of them fall. Instead they will get refunds and can buy in at a lower price in the future. Your reporting on this does not tell this side because it is a positive aspect. This is exactly why people are tuning off the lame ass negative crap you produce. It is lame of you Shannon Patterson to think of yourself as a reporter when you cannot look past your limited perspective and your stations need to create some sort of controversy where non really exists. If I was one of those buyers, I would be thrilled. Think of all the money I would be saving. Shame on you all.”
John, take note: that’s what good satire sounds like.
October 25th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
My wife and I were talking about the turnaround with respect to Global TV News.
I think the RE heavies are leaning on them to change their slant. This way, John Q. Public will give up cluttering the housing with overpriced stuff that isn’t even moving.He’ll see that there has been a sea-change. (Even Global is saying it’s so!)
What agency/realtor can make any money when nothing is selling?
So, instead of “breaking legs”, we have “Breaking NEWS!”.