344 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”
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October 26th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
M- the Sophia, H+H, etc were projects that went into recievership, but were still completed (the sophia ads are getting desperate ‘buy now at rock-bottom prices’..yeah, right) So maybe I should split my lists:
WORK ON HOLD OR CANCELED:
FINANCIAL TROUBLE / RECIEVERSHIP:
I’m sure there are many I’ve missed, We need some sort of Vancouver Condo wiki so we can keep an up to date list of all these.
October 26th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Ukraine Gets $16.5 Billion Loan From IMF; Hungary Next in Line
http://tinyurl.com/66zgt2
October 26th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
post 270 Patriotz
The realtor won’t tell the seller ” don’t sell now” you can sell for higher later….
he/ she really only represents himself
October 26th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Why didn’t I buy in 2005, Dave? Because my capital was employed in strategies aligned with my predictions. Shorting the snot out of banks and builders; avoiding commodities (that one hurt for 2007-08, but feels better now!), and generally making myself wealthy. What have you been up to, mate?
October 26th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
yeah VHB and others need to googles “fiat money”! nothing to fears but fears itself! yeah! browntown predict this posting will get shrinkage! not in 2005′s now!
October 26th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Dave:
What type of companies do you people work for where the layoffs are happening? Other than forestry, this is news to me. Sorry to see it happening.
Times are tough in the mining exploration sector. Everyone either (a) has no money to pursue projects; or (b) is scared that (a) will happen to them sometime soon. My original thought was this would be limited to junior explorers and that cash-rich producers would be ok, but I suspect that even the senior producers are carrying a lot of debt on their balance sheets. Drastic drops in commodities prices don’t help. Lots of mines shut down and exploration is the first cost-area to be crimped down on (always). Mining – exploration – finance and associated are a big sector in Vancouver.
October 26th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
“I called it a ‘bubble’ in spring 2005. I didn’t claim that Spring 2005 was the top; just that present pricing was unsustainable. So, by the Freako metric, I will be ‘right’ if prices retreat to Spring 2005 levels for whatever that is worth. My prediction was for a retrenchment to pre 2004 prices within 5 years.”
Professor also called it first in 2005 but what’s your point you and holgs not producing what you found out of your prediction would you please explain what you mean to remember your prediction explain it?
October 26th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
“This, my friend, is macroeconomics, and macroeconomics doesn’t care about how many rich Asians are moving to Vancouver or how much land is left.
We’ve been trying to tell you this, but you haven’t been listening. I’m sorry, but you can’t use the “unexpected” financial crisis as an excuse, because the financial crisis is an outcome of the burst of the global credit and housing bubble. Unfortunately, you haven’t been with us long enough to understand that bit.”
Holgs,
Are you shooting the pigeons in dark? man oh man it sounds like you have said something in past and achieved your prediction,would you mind applying your achievements on Vancouver Real Estate?or you just want to run across the border?you like kudoos eh?no matter from where they come from?like from bears or bulls!!!!!
Only person ever been close to his words is VANMAN nobody else from BEARS,Nobody!!!!!all these vhb,pop,freako,drachen sorry if i miss some name but yeah you never been right nor you ever going to!!!!!
Vanman with best regard from
vrengd.
October 26th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
hey nutslaps! before we can chat crash we need to talk about land making machine! canuck buck drop just absorb exess froth!
October 26th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Alexcanuck, Dave’s outnumbered 25 to 1, it’s safe for a Dave comment!
October 26th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Ontario (with the exception of Toronto) is probably 0 and Quebec and the Maritimes well below -2.
I don’t buy that. There is no place east of the Lakehead where prices are substantially below rent equivalence, and many where they are above. Ottawa is above, though not by a lot, and St.John and St. John’s have seen mini-bubbles. There are districts in Montreal that are overvalued although in general it is fairly priced.
There is NFW that Canada in aggregate is undervalued. Yes there are many places that are fairly valued, but that does not balance the overvaluations in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Toronto, which together have over 1/3 of Canada’s population and probably closer to 2/3 of its RE valuation.
October 26th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
VHB, then why didn’t you buy in 2005?
Now, Dave, we KNOW you are retarded!
October 26th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
What type of companies do you people work for where the layoffs are happening? Other than forestry, this is news to me. Sorry to see it happening.
October 26th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
VHB, then why didn’t you buy in 2005?
October 26th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Like skullboy, I watch with interest the machinations that goes on in the company I work for. I hear of, and indeed, have seen immediate terminations. Someone shoes up for work on monday morning, and by monday noon, they are GONE.
It’s spooky. Like they never existed in the first place.
In an environment like that, I fear for my corporate life. I too am stockpiling my savings and am prepared to make a dash for Central America if I have enough saved up.
October 26th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Real estate is still seen as an excellent investor by anyone who knows what they’re talking about. I know lots of 30 something rich successful people and every one of them has bought more and more condos on my advice. Their parents are saying the real estate market is crashing but it’s not true. Only RE bulls and old people don’t believe in the magical qualities of Vancouver real estate and SUVs. I’m also considering getting into the mini van market now that VW has released one. Young people in Vancouver cannot resist VWs.
October 26th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
I called it a ‘bubble’ in spring 2005. I didn’t claim that Spring 2005 was the top; just that present pricing was unsustainable. So, by the Freako metric, I will be ‘right’ if prices retreat to Spring 2005 levels for whatever that is worth. My prediction was for a retrenchment to pre 2004 prices within 5 years.
October 26th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Actually Dave I was, as have many others.
I didn’t say ‘ALL’. I said ‘MOST’.
October 26th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Dave: the financial meltdown was a given by the 2005 peak of the housing bubble in the US, and it had been discussed ad nauseum by so many bloggers over the past 3 years that it was just taken as a given by the time you came along in your diapers. Give it up, chump.
October 26th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Congrats VHB. That was a very accurate prediction.
Can I ask at what point you thought the RE market was overvalued and what your initial predictions for the turning point were?
October 26th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Oh, and Dave? In case you are wondering whether this was actually posted in public or whether it was on my bathroom wall, the answer is that it was posted on my old blog at van-housing.blogspot.com. The stat counter on the site says 2,434,509, so I think a few people saw the post. Guess you weren’t a loyal reader back then . . .
October 26th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Dave “I stand by my statement that most posters were not predicting the financial meltdown that we just experienced. ” Actually Dave I was, as have many others. Mish is one of my longest and favorite bloggers, and so far has been 100% right. You have been reading his blog since…??? I have never thought that Vancouver was in anyway at all unique, and could not understand why in the last two years with the American example laying at our feet we (people like you) believed that Vancouver or Canada was in anyway even a teeny bit different. However I have to take those words back, the Americans didn’t have the advantage of a most important trade partner going belly up two years previous…we did, so we are different…we’re way stupider!
October 26th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
I *hate* long blog comments, but just for git and shiggles here is an old post of mine. A propos someone saying that no one predicted the US meltdown and its impact on Vancouver. Hoocoodanode??
I’m off on the timing of some of these things, but the ‘bad’ scenario at the bottom looks pretty frickin’ prescient.
–
Monday, February 13, 2006
Where is the US market going and why does it matter?
The US housing market is clearly starting to fall. I’m sure even our resident bulls will acknowledge this fact. (Of course, it could never happen to Vancouver . . . )
As we’ve often discussed here, this will affect prices in Vancouver through (at least) four channels:
1. Exports: US demand for BC exports (like wood for houses) will decrease.
2. Credit markets: As the risk premium gets reintroduced to credit markets, Canadian banks and bonds will be affected.
3. US investors: Some have said that US investors have been active in the Vancouver condo market. At best they’ll stop buying; at worst they’ll sell Vancouver to pay off their losses elsewhere.
4. Psychology: tear-jerker stories of families losing their houses will be all over the US media. Oprah will do shows on it. This will affect the beliefs that real estate ‘always goes up’.
Let’s dig into a bit more detail about how this will all play out in the US, thinking about the implications for Vancouver as we go along. The Vancouver parts will be in brown.
Before I begin, let me stress that this is just my best guess about how the next few years will play out. Maybe, because of ‘internet time’ it will happen more quickly. Or, maybe some big positive thing will happen to avoid this whole mess. I don’t know. But the following represents my best guesses as to how it will look.
1. Through most of 2006, inventory will reach staggering record levels in many cities as buyers and sellers play a game of chicken. Transaction volume will plummet. Only those who have to sell (death; divorce; job transfers etc.) will sell. No real impact on Vancouver.
2. As 2006 progresses, HELOC and MEWing will decrease. That is, the home equity ATM will turn off. This has supported the US economy in recent years. It will shut off because a) house prices stopped growing so no more equity to extract and b) for those who still have equity, most will see the writing on the wall and not MEW themselves to death. No direct impact on Vancouver.
3. By late 2006, a recession will hit the US. This will be driven by a) consumption drop relating to point 2) above and the fact that the huge increase in housing-related employment will start to reverse itself. If the US economy catches a cold, Vancouver will be affected. Olympics and mountains will not save the economy. Construction projects will mitigate the losses, but there will be losses that need to be mitigated.
4. As we head into 2007. the trickle of ‘creative’ loan conversions from the ‘teaser’ rate period to the ‘full’ rate period will become a flood. (Around 1 trillion or 12% of outstanding mortgages in 2007.) The game of ‘chicken’ will be over as many very motivated sellers dump their houses on the market, or go into default. Transaction volume picks up and prices head down down down. We’ll be in full ‘Oprah’ territory here, with lots of mass media coverage of the meltdown. Will Vancouverites be able to cling to the belief that ‘Vancouver is different’?
5. The US subprime market dries up. No one is willing to buy the loans in the secondary market, so the loans stop being made at the retail level. If you can’t borrow a cool million with a no-doc neg-am loan anymore, then who the heck will buy the million dollar bungalows in the OC and San Diego anymore? At some point, I wonder if any of this would make the CMHC reconsider the ‘zero down’ mortgages that they now insure?
6. By mid-late 2007, we start seeing serious foreclosure action. It takes a long time (maybe 12 months so I’ve gathered) for a mortgage in default to work its way back onto the market as a foreclosure. This will cause another wave of forced sales as the mortgage holders do not want to hold onto these houses. The US recession will have Canada dragged into recession at this point. Oil prices will be down as the US economy sucks up less of the stuff and the supply side that had been digging and drilling with visions of $100/barrel oil comes on the market. In short, commodity price falls hurt us. Yes, some BCers make video games. But more of them do commodities. In either case, the export market is the US.
7. The yield curve refinds its steepness. Maybe the Fed starts moving short rates down. However, the long end will go up. It is currently propped up by large purchases of bonds by hedge funds and foreign purchasers. Maybe not as much for treasuries, but for MBSs and other credit instruments, the long yields will see the reintroduction of something that the ancients used to call risk premiums. What happens to Canadian interest rates? I think we will see a reintroduction of some slope to the yield curve as well, but not as extreme as the US. There is some possibility that Canada bonds will be seen as ‘quality’ and we will be the beneficiary of a ‘flight to quality’. Of course, there is also the possibility that a run on US bonds carries over to being a run on any North American bond. I don’t know.
I put the odds of 1. through 7. happening at better than 50/50. If this happens, I think it will have a big impact on Vancouver’s housing market – especially by 2007. However, you might disagree. I guess it depends how resilient local factors are to changes in these external factors.
The really scary stuff comes in what might happen after 1. through 7. I don’t have a crystal ball and I don’t want to be overly gloom-mongering [Ha! A little too late for that, VHB!
] so I’ll lay out three scenarios, ranging from more sunny to downright depressing. I really don’t know which will play out; maybe some mix of the three. In any case it’s interesting to think through the scenarios before deciding on which is most likely.
Here are the ‘good’ ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ final scenarios:
Good
As more and more foreclosure and defaults go through the system, those who hold mortgages (banks, MBS holders, hedge funds, foreign central banks and institutions) take a big haircut. Maybe some minor small banks fail, and losses are large elsewhere, but the system takes the hit and survives. The US dollar goes down and long bond yields go up, but the recession works its way through and a new stronger economy emerges; one not focused on trading houses to each other with money borrowed from China. In short: tears are shed, but the sun comes up in the morning.
Bad
The wave of foreclosures and defaults leads to the failure of some major financial institutions. Maybe Fannie and Freddie go into arrears and Uncle Sam has to bail them out. Millions of homeowners forced to sell their houses at firesale prices. Major recession. This leads to problems with the Chinese economy. It goes into recession, but not too badly. Overall, this recession will be one to remember, but it isn’t the end of the world.
Ugly
The wave of foreclosures and defaults leads to cascading bank failures. Financial markets seize up. The US dollar plummets; long interest rates spike in an attempt to keep someone buying US denominated debt. We’re talking depression and maybe worse. China sees its exports slow to a trickle since the US isn’t buying so much anymore. What happens when you have 1 billion people angry at the lack of jobs and economic stress? Maybe the Chinese government creates a diversion to keep their citizens’ minds off the economic difficulties . . . ouch.
Ok, this is an extreme scenario. Let’s just say that I’m not burying gold coins and gathering canned food and ammunition at this point.
Conclusion
In this post, I’ve laid out my views on what will happen in the US. How much of this will affect Vancouver is difficult to say, but if any of this comes to pass then it can be safely said that the external environment will not be staying constant over the next 5 years.
October 26th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Dave, I didn’t insult you, why are you insulting me? My reading comprehension is fine, I am not lying. I copied and pasted from your posts. You said you predicted prices to be higher in 12-18 months. Period. End of story. You are changing history.
Mea culpa.
The post you initially referenced was taken out of context. In that post I predicted the magnitude of a potential correction. That’s all I was trying to point out.
Yes, I initially predicted a flat market with some upside. Once the sales to listings ratio dropped, I changed my estimates and predicted price declines in the Fall. I was also wrong on the start of the declines. I would have anticipated a time lag, but we didn’t get it. Perhaps the cause is more readily accessible information for buyers.
I stand by my statement that most posters were not predicting the financial meltdown that we just experienced. I didn’t read your prognostications from three years ago, nor is that a reasonable expectation on your part.
October 26th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
275 posts… this site has suddenly become significantly busier.
October 26th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
#255
Thanks, holgs, for that trip down memory lane. I remember reading your posts back then and enjoyed the catchy name in reference to Gomez.
Three years after the fact, along comes Dave, stating nobody here predicted the events that have transpired… Such chutzpah from a johnny-come-lately.
Thanks again, holgs. You just torn an extra oriface for Dave.
October 26th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
poooooo: what line of business were YOU in? This deja vu feeling is because of reports of layoffs. Haven’t heard of anyone getting laid off in Vancouver it seems surreal. But yeah, the layoffs and foreclosures and bankruptcies started in the US in 2006 and that is what is giving me the feeling of deja vu. Reading Vancouver Condo Info is now like reading Ben’s Housing Blog except two years later. Heady, isn’t it?
October 26th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
i was laid off as well. it was a mixed blessing, the bureaucracy there was neverending, foolish managers who only want to hire yes men and women to keep the political class happy.
October 26th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
I can’t stop thinking about Dave.
October 26th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Oh yes, lest we forget the old Vancouver Housing Blog that got us going.
HAIL TO VHB!!!
October 26th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
I spoke to many realestate people and not once did I hear don’t buy it …or you are buying to much..
How many times does it have to be said….
ALL Realtors work for the seller, NOT the buyer!
October 26th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
scullboy: What type of job did you have? What are you doing now. As I recall you are the knife thrower, right:)?
October 26th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
holgs, post 251
Well said, I too was a bear man from 2003-2006. I just could n’t believe people buying realestate within minutes of seeing it…no inspection…no negotiations. One bidding war after another. The constant drumming of the olymoics are coming…yopu’ll be priced out… rich asian are now all coming here.
In 2007, I finally caved..even though I saved a lot by renting, I was going to borrow from parents to put a down payment on a condo or T/h. But under advisement from my uncles, friends a little older than I, to carefully research the areas and places to live.
as I did those things…I looked at the crappy selections and housing history, it really wasn’t financially feasible to buy…rent was so much cheaper than buying. The interest from the money I saved thru stocks, bonds and GICs over the years almost covered my entire annual rent; therfore my salary was going to me as opposed to going to interest from a bank. My uncles told me on the 90s and 80s which they both made mistakes and how similar the realesate speak it was then…I’its different now”…yeah the bubble is bigger.
I even bidded on a place luckiliy I chose a good house inspector….No way was I going to buy w/o… but that was the atmosphere …rush . Of course the place was crap…didn’t buy. Now I seriouisly grateful for my family and friends who kept me from making an huge mistake.
Personally I am appauled by the sheer arrogance of most realtors/ mortgage brokers calling themselves profeesional. Buy now before it is to late…maybe you can afford it now but what about later when % rates are higher…or maybe don’t buy at all right now…you don’t need it with your lifestyle Doctors warn you about the consequnces of surgery…they’ll say don’t do it and why.
even lawyers…telll you about your chances in winning a case ie ” You might want to settle this out of court” even if means less money for them.
I spoke to many realestate people and not once did I hear don’t buy it …or you are buying to much..
so sad…I ‘m sure some are good out there but so many are bad. Thank you everyone for keeping it real…I hope the next generation can learn from this and remember ” Don’t need to regulate banks…are u kidding…there are regulations for toothpaste and it’s only $1.79″
October 26th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Crisis moves to Gulf Arab nations
Kuwait moves to prop up bank after losses on Gulf stock exchanges.
http://tinyurl.com/6orzdl
October 26th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Guys i’m hoping the market crashes soon, I’m getting a bit ahead of myself.
October 26th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Seeing that Barack Obama appears to be leading in the polls…
Would that be bearish for the US economy?
Compared to McSame?
Get serious.
One of Obamas economic advisors is Paul Volcker BTW.
October 26th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Ant:
Just remember: You are not your job, and you are not your stuff. It’s a cliche, but twice now I’ve been hit with considerable misfortune. In the last year I’ve come pretty close to losing everything.
You know what? Losing that crappy job was the best thing that ever happened to me. My manager was weak and ineffective and the director she reported in to was an incompetent sociopath. The company itself loves to drown its employees in green and purple kool-aid but once you take a step back and really look at how they do business and how they treat their employees, you come to realize they are monsters. In the month after I lost my job there, several of my friends lost theirs and they all had similar stories.
Losing my job was difficult at the time but quite honestly I’ve come to realize it’s the best thing that could have happened to me. I lost something I didn’t really want anyway.
I know at least one of my former colleagues reads this blog regularly, and I sincerely hope he smiles when he reads this.
Ant, if you have money saved up then you are truly free. Take a month or two to do whatever makes you happy. Then figure out how to make money at that. Trust me, you can.
October 26th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
ant: what kind of business are you in?
October 26th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Hey, I am getting a deja vu of reading Ben Jones’ blog in 2006. Eerie feelings. The internet is amazing, isn’t it? We wouldn’t have been experiencing such as deja vu without the internet. It was as if I had lived through the California/Arizona/Florida crash in cyberspace and now it is happening around me for real.
October 26th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
More good news in the funny papers
BWAHAHAHHAHA
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....ed1aed4aca
October 26th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
skullboy, I lost my job this month. There, I said it. I’m of two minds on the situation – I can now focus my time on things that are meaningful to me, but it has been a hit to the ego, even though it was lack of work and not job performance that led to my situation.
I’m on the same page as you on the savings aspect. Essentially I prepared for the fact that economies don’t always boom, and that sure does away with a huge amount of stress. My savings could allow me to live for years if I had to, even if I didn’t have EI. I’m not sure how my coworkers with huge mortgages and debt are dealing with this situation, but I do feel sorry for them.
October 26th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
” From what I recall, nobody here predicted the events that have transpired the last couple months.”
I’ll add to what Holgs said.
I clearly remember 2005 (Tim days, I think) on VHB suggesting that the ‘external event’ would be US Housing or along the lines of housing will crush housing.
We all had theories of how this would play out … many of us called a shitstorm and discussed various outcomes, the fact not everyone might have predicted with certainty how the shitstorm manifests is besides the point, it happened.
I’ve been an avid saver over the last few years and I’ve been in cash this whole time knowing something bad was going to happen. Nit pick all you want, it happened and I called it and I put my money where my mouth is and look forward to paying cash for a pad in the near future.
October 26th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Holgs:
I know what you mean about being scared, I lost my own job back in June. The trick really is preparation. You’d be amazed how cheaply you can live, and you can still enjoy life on the cheap.
Don’t worry pal, as long as you aren’t shackled to a house, you’ll be all right.
October 26th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Seeing that Barack Obama appears to be leading in the polls…
Would that be bearish for the US economy?
I wonder what the spillover effects would be here?
October 26th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Holgs:
Well said, I think you read my mind, bang on.
REAL money talks Bullsh*t aka FIAT money walks.
TIP: Look up “Fiat” Money on Wikipedia
It reminded me of a family frined who had Nortel stock, and sold just in time !!!!,(but ironically had to to pay for their share a leaky condo repair).
Listening to Alan Greenspan (Green scam?)speak was truly amazing…(barffff!!!)he seems to BS the rest of us to think the system he was a major player in could self regulate, when example -after -example showed it was ripe for abuse, going back to the S & L scandles years ago. Now he woke up?
The dot.com bomb took many down, the powers that be had to rig another fiscal russion roulette.Now that Real Estate is down the toilet , their only other option(RE) has gone boom with a big mushroom cloud…they have run out of options.
Head for the hills!!!
October 26th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Hey thanks for the kudos guys!
One more, and then I’m off to bed…
Dave said:
From what I recall, nobody here predicted the events that have transpired the last couple months.
Not to toot my own horn or anything, but I myself summarized the source of the crisis in 2005, and I can prove it.
by CarlGomezSeesABubble on Thu Aug 11, 2005 5:22 pm
One final note…
I am supposed to be working but have been spending far too much time perusing the housing news. There is a LOT of bad news right now, especially in the US (and here, by proxy.) Fannie Mae (giant lender propping up the housing bubble) in trouble, 80% of purchases using interest only loans in some US areas, people speculating in unusable land in west texas, insiders in home builders dumping stock, the NAR chief stating the prices have peaked, 50% bankruptcy increases in a few months in some areas, REITs and HB stock nose diving, the record low savings rate that is mirrored here (people refinancing and spending ALL of the newly financed money), “wealth effects” from housing keeping the economy afloat, huge increases in sales listings and unsold inventories, etc, in the last few months. I work for a tech company and EXPECT to lose my job to layoffs some time in the next few years when the global economy crashes along with the US’. The sooner our bubble pops, the better off we’ll be when it happens (fewer people losing everything.)
England and Australia have already peaked… The US is nosediving big time, historically, we’re next!
A bit early, I admit. Since that time I’ve gotten married, switched jobs twice, and now live in Sweden. Still got my bear costume though. I’m still scared out of my mind, and expecting to be jobless soon. 50% of my employer’s business is Saab, Volvo Cars, and Volvo trucks.
Us bears didn’t want this crisis to happen… We just knew it would happen.
October 26th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
holgs “Think about all of the posts that you haven’t read on vancouver.condo.info,” Yeh you should think of that; in fact coming onto the blog when you did sort off indicates an addiction to cool aid which apparently you were weaned off of suddenly so you started to think…sort of!
And that lead to a desperate attempt to legitimize yourself to family and friends…not us we could care less! cause we know where its going (and always have give or take a year) and you haven’t even now the faintest idea. What yoou write is what you want to happen what bears write is it’s gonna happen irregardless of what we prefer that is a non issue to a bear, and some bears do not like whats happening cause they see a lot of shit ahead where innocent people get hurt JUST LIKE DURING THE BOOM, where honest people couldn’t afford housing and the drebs of society could! 
:-)
October 26th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Yes, bravo on #251!!!
October 26th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Holgs, that is the most brilliant post ever! You nailed it and you deserve some sort of Pope prize:)
October 26th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Dave, I didn’t insult you, why are you insulting me? My reading comprehension is fine, I am not lying. I copied and pasted from your posts. You said you predicted prices to be higher in 12-18 months. Period. End of story. You are changing history.
Now, as for “nobody here predicted this.”
Come on!
This is why this whole thing is so interesting to us bears. It’s the reason these blogs exist. It’s not just housing. It never was. It was a global credit bubble the likes of which this world has never seen.
In 2005 I made a buddy of mine quite angry when I told him subprime loans were fooked. Was I a genius? No. Credit bubble. Global.
Follow the trail:
- IT bubble crashes in 2001
- Interest rates lowered to record low levels
- People fed up with stocks buy “safe as houses” houses
- Housing bubble begins…
- Credit is expanded like never before. All over the world. Everywhere. Seriously, everywhere.
- Carl Gomez sees no bubble in Vancouver in 2005 (I remember reading the TD bank report and getting pissed, as all the bulls were using it as proof that there was no bubble.)
- Later on that same year, Carl Gomez flip flops and suddenly he sees Vancouver’s price growth as “unsustainable.” (I remember this because my name on RET after that day was “CarlGomezSeesABubble”)
- Yes, in 2005 we were predicting the Canadian bubble would crash along with the US bubble crash, and yes, we were wrong for 3 years.
However, I (we) were always certain that it would happen. 100% certain.
Because this was The. Biggest. Credit. Bubble. Evar.
In terms of timing, you know what my “excuses” are?
1.) I didn’t predict the government intervention that occurred just as prices were leveling off in 2006 (introduction of 0/40 loans and CMHC)
2.) I had no idea about the irrationality/stupidity of crowds and mortgage lenders. I remember a sign posted in a window of Capitol Coast Savings: “If you can fog this glass, you’re approved!” I wish I had taken a picture.
You can talk all you want about technical analysis, fundamental analysis, price to rent, price to income and the amount of immigration to Vancouver and land in Vancouver, but this isn’t a local phenomenon. Even though by all those measures this is a local bubble…
Problem is, this is and always was a global problem.
This is a once in a lifetime event.
This, my friend, is macroeconomics, and macroeconomics doesn’t care about how many rich Asians are moving to Vancouver or how much land is left.
We’ve been trying to tell you this, but you haven’t been listening. I’m sorry, but you can’t use the “unexpected” financial crisis as an excuse, because the financial crisis is an outcome of the burst of the global credit and housing bubble. Unfortunately, you haven’t been with us long enough to understand that bit.
Dave, before you write a snarky reply… Stop and think about this for a minute. Think about all of the posts that you haven’t read on vancouver.condo.info, prior to you joining our bear cave in June, 2008. This blog has been around for years, and plenty of bulls have come and gone before you showed up. We’re all still here.
Right now, you have the opportunity of a lifetime to change your life forever. Should you buy yen? Gold? No banks left to short, but what about CRE? Perhaps some mall owners? (SPG, maybe?) What will the boomers be selling in the coming years? Harleys, maybe? Boats? Houses?
Kinda scary, but it’s not too late to get prepared.