Friday Free-for-all! (spooky edition)
Alright, you made it to the end of the week. Here’s our news round-up to kick off the discussion:
-Vancouver Condo Info Wiki!
-Falling BC house prices a reality check
-CBC map of halted Vancouver condo projects
-Vancouver: Cracks appearing in condo land
-Mish: An American view of the Vancouver Market
-BC retail sales continue downward trend
-Don’t worry, be happy!
-Positive news alleviates housing market fear
-Signs of a US housing market bottom?
-Fed rate cut may have little impact
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, anecdotes and links here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Thanks!
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Agent Will usually has GVREB stats out very quickly after they are released.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 am
Does anyone have access to the Oct numbers for Vancouver?
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 am
Given the existance of real estate bubbles in a couple hundred markets around the world, I would suggest there's nothing terribly unique about Bob Rennie.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
Re: Pre -sales
It may have been Grace Kwok first,maybe someone can find who was "Ground Zero" party re: Pre Sale, but Rennie got into it big time.
When I first heard about pre-sales, I thought WTF ? people are buying a pig in a poke !
Up till then, I think most parties would never buy sight unseen…and wanted to kick the tires of what they were actually purchasing. After pre-sales took off, they had no choice but to buy a pig in a poke, it became the norm. It appears that the banks were more interested in pre-sales with minimum $$$ down than a completed structure with say 25 % of the buyer's own $$$ down.
In hindsight, the pre-sale things was doomed to implode, or lead to a glut on the market. The media would have TV crews showing pre-sale line -ups, creating fear and doubt amongst those at the sidelines who felt they had no choice but to jump in, and with much easier terms to qualify to purchase, , the fate was sealed. Fewer treated the purchase as something personal,to treat as their home , instead the aim of the purchase was to pimp it like a brothel to entice more suckers in to inflate the bubble.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 am
"Yes, I started doing pre-sale back in 1984. I was the first person to bring this idea to Vancouver. It was a difficult education for the local people" Grace Kwok
** She might not be pleased to take credit for this today.
She brought the idea over from Asia.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 am
"If Rennie never existed, I wonder if the industry would still have invented him or one like him? I think the roots to this mess can be traced to the pre-sale format Rennie seemed to have imported in the early 1990’s , which he noted in a previous article Sept. 2008 ( which I posted a while back)."
Didn't Grace Kwok (qaka the condo queen before Rennie came along) take the concept of the pre sale and bring it to Vancouver in 1988?
She was doing pre sales before Rennie came along for sure, she even did one in Hong Kong and pissed a lot of Vancouverites off after it sold out without any opportunity for Vancouver buyers to buy (It was in Fairview, 20 years ago).
November 3rd, 2008 at 9:52 am
If Rennie never existed, I wonder if the industry would still have invented him or one like him?
Of course; he's a one-trick pony in a bubble market, anyone else could have sufficed.
November 3rd, 2008 at 8:31 am
when the bank appraisers come on site to appraise the property they are saying that the property is worth $40 -$50000 less than what they were originally purchased for 12 months ago
this is not surprising CDN banks are now more cautious than previous
the money they lend out cost them more and is harder to get, they won't just hand it out to any ol' condo buyer…..
my offer on the Holland St house would be $appraisal/2 or around $650K subject to inspection…..
November 3rd, 2008 at 8:06 am
BMO is running a funny TV ad
The scene opens with a couple and their realtor. The realtor says, " $5,000 M-O-R-E and its YOURS " !
Then another person comes in and says " don't forget about the Property Purchase Tax ",..another talks about the cost of renovations ,….and a few more people pop into the scene to mention other costs that will be incurred if they complete the deal.
The realtors are spewing the same old " PLAN B " mantra ,I have heard the same basic crap in past whenever RE market collapses.
Whenever the market tanks there must be something they read out of their standard realtor handbook to try to either build consumer confidence or alleviate consumer fears.
In my view, Rennie being deemed the Condo King having sold $2 Billion in Real Estate shows how stupid many people are, as it is more indicative of a herd mentality based on greed and blind faith than any reality.
If Rennie never existed, I wonder if the industry would still have invented him or one like him? I think the roots to this mess can be traced to the pre-sale format Rennie seemed to have imported in the early 1990's , which he noted in a previous article Sept. 2008 ( which I posted a while back).
November 3rd, 2008 at 8:05 am
BB
There are two kinds of reporters. Those who get out there and ask tough questions work diligently to investigate and create a new story.
Then there are those who take press releases and re-word them in their own words.
Both kinds get paid the same. I'll let you guess which kind wrote the article you're referencing (I'd be willing to bet he never even talked to Rennie)
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:10 am
"If your client is not motivated to sell or for any reason [the property] is overpriced, take the home off the market until February and we'll sit down and have some clarity," he suggests.
I love it… I wonder *why* February is the magic month that RE will fix itself. I wish the reporter had the guts to ask that.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:32 am
In these turbulent economic times, Bob Rennie advises buyers to focus on the fundamentals…
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGA…
"You want fundamentals, not hype. Hype is not going to get us through," says Mr. Rennie.
…he insists that Vancouverites need only look to the fundamentals for guidance: a rental crisis, a shortage of housing supply on the market, and the 2010 Olympics just around the corner.
"…We are a real estate town — real estate is a sport," Mr. Rennie says. "You go to Calgary and it's oil and gas. You go to Toronto, it's business. In Seattle, it's technology. We're real estate … And the world likes us. The world likes to live in Vancouver," he says.
"Out of all the markets in North America, this is a wonderful market to be participating in, because we do have the fundamentals." … for investment buyers, it's an excellent time to buy, he says.
Q.E.D.
November 2nd, 2008 at 10:44 pm
$40 -$50000 less than what they were originally purchased for 12 months ago HAAHAHA!
z3– what would that be percentage-wise, please? Thanks.
November 2nd, 2008 at 10:40 pm
I work for a real estate developer and what is happening now is that when the bank appraisers come on site to appraise the property they are saying that the property is worth $40 -$50000 less than what they were originally purchased for 12 months ago HAAHAHA! (I will probably be out of a job in 6 months)
November 2nd, 2008 at 8:56 pm
This term BEST is in the advertising business a weasel word it doesn't mean anything. If you were to say better than you are saying something is better than something else. The reason this is used is to somehow justify the overpriced overvalued RE that Vancouver has at present. Don't worry soon The bust will take place of best and that will be the end of that.
November 2nd, 2008 at 8:02 pm
Can anyone define “Best” when it comes to real estate?
Personally, I'd vote for Hawaii, Portugal, Monaco, Paris, NY, Vienna.. Actually this list is getting too long. I'd set Vancouver somewhere around Seattle, Salt Lake City or Cincinnati if I was to sort real estate around the world in terms of best.
November 2nd, 2008 at 3:40 pm
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/reb/900092935.h…
Assessments and Sales by Address 2008
214-22150 48 AVE LANGLEY BC
$227,000 Strata Apartment – Frame
15-35-311-07578270-51
November 2nd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
“Vancouver real estate is the best on earth”
Funny, I don’t normally bother to respond to John as he’s just a joker, but this is a common thread in the pusher’s dialogue. Can anyone define “Best” when it comes to real estate? Is “Most Expensive” best? Best P/E ratio (that would get my vote for best)? Worst P/E ratio (this seems to be the criteria used most often by those calling Vancouver the “best”)? Anyone else have suggestions?
Drachen: There are two authorities that agree with the "best
Real Estate Anywhere, or some such axiom.
Maggie is one, and Rob is the other that comes to mind, if you don't believe me, you can take an advantage of the incredible wealth of information they offer on their blogs:
http://robchipman.net/blog/
http://www.vancouverreflections.com/
Both of these professionals seem to exhibit superior knowledge. Naturally with any complex subject you might at first become frustrated as your intellectual ability is challenged.
But I would highly recommend studying the works of these two intellectual titans, it’s well worth the read.
Both are candidates for Nobel Prizes.
One has developed a theory on how negative cash flow is a good investment.
The other has a theory on how if you ignore bad news it will morph into good news.
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:43 pm
"Vancouver real estate is the best on earth"
Funny, I don't normally bother to respond to John as he's just a joker, but this is a common thread in the pusher's dialogue. Can anyone define "Best" when it comes to real estate? Is "Most Expensive" best? Best P/E ratio (that would get my vote for best)? Worst P/E ratio (this seems to be the criteria used most often by those calling Vancouver the "best")? Anyone else have suggestions?
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:28 pm
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/reo/903066059.h…
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Another sucker who is unable to close
chttp://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/reo/903066059.html
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:25 pm
john:
Re: Point #2 on your post # 166
So, you are concluding people will be living out of classic pimp mobile's in these uncertain " bubble- go- B-U-S-T " times ?
Now that's mobility !!!
November 2nd, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Well I guess the Holland house is selling at 2006 price. So when it gets to 2004 price (700,000) I might have a look
November 2nd, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Here's some facts for the bears out there:
1) Vancouver real estate is the best on earth and there's no question about this. Even the most bearish basement dweller admits this readily.
2) SUVs and cadillacs are the next big boom and real estate in Vancouver will become a close second to the boom market in luxury SUVs.
3) There's two things in life that give me joy : buying new condos and plastic wrapping all the fixtures so that they're preserved for rich asian buyers AND buying and selling SUVs.
4) I bought a new boat yesterday.
November 2nd, 2008 at 1:57 pm
My friend looked at one of those houses on Holland and found that they'd built a new roof over the old one and some other mickey mouse stuff that made him walk away. There haven't been too many houses for sale on Holland so it could be the same house.
November 2nd, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Anonymous:
They are advertising a $ Million + house on CraigsList?
….. and are leaving the Country?
Ask them to dismantle the Grow-op first.
PS Then grind them down say to $1,139, 999.
See if they will finance the deal (or at least "rent to own").
N/C
November 2nd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
BC Assessed value is 1,341,100 for the Holland St. house.
November 2nd, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Hey folks:
What do you think of this? On sale for 1.15M. Appraised in May 2008 for 1.8M.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/reb/903015603.h…
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
This is something interesting from Maggie Chandlers "Reflections" Web Site re Purchasers rights to cancel pre-sale contracts
http://www.vancouverreflections.com/2008/11/01/pu… right-to-cancel-presale-contract/
The Financial Insitutions Commission posted this on Oct. 28
Apparently, under " Real Estate Development Marketing Act " developers who have not obtained a building permit or satisfactory financing are permitted to market a development for a period of 9 months(with conditions). I wonder why, …..helps the bubble?
Highlighted in bold is with respect to amendments to the original disclosure statement and the 12 month period after the original disclosure was made. I am wondering if Ritz Carlton developers is playing this game with their so-called changes, buying time and delaying refunds ?
Maybe the Quattro (Surrey) as well..ie the fire they had and how it appears the developers are apparently not interested in providing refunds, though many purchasers appeared to hope the fire would be a great excuse to bail in a collapsing market?
More info there for all to read.
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:43 pm
there's no bubble here, otherwise it would have burst years ago. nice try poor boy.
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
While today it is me, we all shall fall.
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
A friend of mine who is a real estate agent told me prices are down over 20% from the peak in New Westminster and sales are almost non-existent. He is leaving the business for a while.
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Hmmm.
Looks like someone made an extra big batch of Kool Aid.
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:15 pm
The US housing bubble burst in the summer of 2005 and we are headed into the 4th year of slump with no end in sight. Fundamentally, there is every reason for Vancouver to follow suit. Condo prices in Vancouver are going to crash just as they did in Florida, Nevada, and California. Home prices will fare better than condos but home prices too will crash.
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:13 pm
In California, the C.A.R. is reporting Median Home Prices Down 47% From Peak and the Case-Shiller 10-City Composite is down 22% from the peak. Given that the bubble in Vancouver is at least as big as the ones in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, or San Diego one should expect a correction at least as big.
Those cities are down a minimum of 32.8% from the peak and still falling. The bottom is likely another 4 years away given we are just now entering the teeth of a consumer led recession with unemployment poised to soar from 6.1% to 8% or higher in 2009 and higher still in 2010.
November 2nd, 2008 at 11:45 am
Nobody is as stupid as me!
Me Krrishh1 informer2 and me have no brain tv tower already sell 10% less than new price!
November 2nd, 2008 at 11:44 am
Dosh Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Those statscan numbers are from 2006 – thats two years ago. Its possible that the ratio of products we sell to the US vs. the rest of the world has changed dramatically in that time.
Here’s what I know: There is unprecedented demand for real estate in Vancouver and people are still buying. Prices are the highest they’ve ever been and people are still buying. People that ignored the fear and bought have done very well so far.
November 2nd, 2008 at 11:43 am
Dosh Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
wonder what happens if the U.S. drags Canada into a recession.
Not going to happen. IF the US goes into recession it might have an effect back east, but Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world and we’re not manufacturing widgets. We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.
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November 2nd, 2008 at 9:50 am
BTW: ALL Star Trek fans live in their parents basements.
Ol' Bill Shatner exposed that FACT on TV years ago.
I think Patriotz "Sulu " jab has another inference, something about "anti-gravity" in the old loafers.