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October 9th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Gadwin, it is not a meltdown, this is just the beginning. Real economy has not felt this yet.
People figure they can just by-pass the Crash, and go to the next stage of…prosperity is just around the corner.
The money meltdown still has to make its way into the real economy made up of real people…we haven’t started yet. Some like to imagine this is the bottom, thinking ‘Whew, we dodged that bullet’.
It’s not going to happen like that.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
If Nasdaq goes below 1172 (that is far far way still), it will be a 12 year low. Imagine that, PRE tech bubble prices. The real returns must be pathetic.
Nasdaq peaked around 5000 in 2000. Now 8.5 years later, it is worth a third of that. Ouch.
Vancouver housing will get is so bad, it is mind boggling. I wonder if the banks will turn chickensh*t and limit Vancouver mortgage lending. That would decimate prices NOW.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Pisses me off. Where have all the blow-hards disappeared to…
Don’t know, but the “hoocouldanode” schtick won’t work here, so perhaps they have gone to pump in more bullish pastures.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Dave, would you really sell your silver now for 2X the artificial price?
I am not so quick to buy into conspiracy theories, which is where I think you are going with this. There is a shortage of Maples and 10 ounce bars to be sure, but I believe you can still find 100 ounce sizes relatively easily.
So to answer your question, I think I would sell for 2X and then go and buy higher weight silver with the proceeds.
I guess I could just stand in front of VBCE and hawk my silver.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
“If this situation keeps getting worse and doesn’t stabilize, then all my housing predictions are off the table. Housing will obviously not perform well in a recession or depression.”
Housing’s dead anyway, and no one gave your predictions any credence.
“I didn’t hear many of my detractors predict massive bank failures and the DOW dropping under 9000.”
Bank failures aplenty were predicted and lots of people foresaw the macro effects of a housing crash despite not making specific predictions about the DOW.
Here’s an article about HSBC’s $17B writedown in March; the writing was on the wall for banks then for anyone with eyes to see it and a brain to think it through:
http://tinyurl.com/4dyet8
October 9th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
I didn’t hear many of my detractors predict massive bank failures and the DOW dropping under 9000.
Somewhat. Your detractors were on the right track. We discussed Fannie and Freddie needing a bailout as early as 2005. Most long time bears have been very negative on equities, and have advocated cash for some time.
No we didn’t predict massive bank failures, but we thought the high chance of soft landing predictions that your esteemed experts were predicting laughable.
The ironic thing is that it is HOUSING that has caused these financial troubles. We said that the trouble would spread into the U.S. economy and beyond. You’d be surprised how many disagreed with this.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
*
I just wanted to say, appropos to nothing: where are all the Bulls of yesteryear, long ago…like a couple months ago? They declared Vancouver is a Fortress – unrelated to USA real estate or the tides of American finance? Different, special, hosts of the Winter Games, impervious to market forces. Where are they now?
Pisses me off. Where have all the blow-hards disappeared to…
October 9th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Stubblenut, good thinking!
What’s your plan for the month #3?
October 9th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
I’ve been slowly building up my pantry over the past while, and I’m now at the point where I could keep the family going for a couple of month if it were needed. Probably won’t be, but I’m not going to get caught out and be unable to feed us if it is.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Dave, would you really sell your silver now for 2X the artificial price? Think about it, if you can’t buy anything at this price, why would you consider it to be “market” price?
October 9th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Gadwin, it is not a meltdown, this is just the beginning. Real economy has not felt this yet. When it does, it will feed back into the financial markets and then it will all really go down. That is provided the markets stay open.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Dave Said; “I didn’t hear many of my detractors predict massive bank failures and the DOW dropping under 9000. ” No that is true but the difference is we said (the BEARS) that we follow the US in lockstep generally two years behind. The Vancouver Bulls constantly, continuously said we have nothing to do with the US. Dosh a perfect example (seems to have disappeared). Vancouver has absolutely NOTHING special about it nothing zip and in many respects is way worse off then many American cities (Miami, Las Vegas, San Diego and way way worse of then San Francisco.) Dave the problem with you is for some unknown reason you think a town bit town in the middle of no where is “different”. I love this town cause its my home; internationally it’s not even on the measuring stick!
October 9th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
“Anon, not at all.”
Wow. I was almost convinced you were a realtor. In case you are and things don’t work out for you, may i suggest a career in politics?
October 9th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
George the Third: I noticed the signs on The Barclay were replaced today and now read “Phase 2 Now Selling.” There were 67 units for sale originally, and I don’t see how they could have added more since it was a condo conversion.
Selling units that have been sitting on the market for almost a year as “Phase 2” seems almost fraudulent to me.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
This is crazy. Asia is having another big sell off, after the Dow tanked today. It’s a frenzy I tell ya.
Seriously, if there are any people here trying to sell their real estate, just cut price NOW and get out while you can. It’s not a financial crisis anymore, it’s a financial meltdown.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Anon, not at all. Some of my earliest posts have said as much. I have been clear that a significant external economic event would affect the housing market. I didn’t hear many of my detractors predict massive bank failures and the DOW dropping under 9000. This has nothing to do with CYA and everything to do with taking in new information that most people did not predict. I am not going to blindly stick to past analysis based on old information. I have to consider new info and the last couple weeks significantly changes my outlook.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
“If this situation keeps getting worse and doesn’t stabilize, then all my housing predictions are off the table. Housing will obviously not perform well in a recession or depression.”
going into CYA mode, i see…
October 9th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Anon, if somebody wants silver at 2X market, I just might be willing to sell some. $35 for a Maple ounce or $350 for a 10 ounce bar sounds good to me.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
RJB:
I walked by the Barclay today. Some kid was raking up the leaves. Must be doing good ’cause the sign says 50% sold. I think I’ll check back when its 50% off.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Asia markets open. Nikkei down 800 after 1/2 hr of trading. OMG. I am so glad to be in cash, HXD and HOD. A bit of gold bull as well. This is NOT business as usual, and the rules have been changed. New bailout tomorrow? They can’t let it go like into the weekend, come Monday a fuul-blown panic will be upon us.
Ps. The new bail-out won’t work.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
MickeyFinn, you have been mislead! What these people are lining up to buy is not gold, it is promise of gold delivered some time in the future, with no guarantee of exactly when. Now that is really screwed up!
Go inside of VBCE and read the notes they have posted on all windows. And to have people lining up for that…
P.S. in case you are wondering why they are not buying gold coins- it’s because there are none available! First silver disappeared, then gold. This has been going on for more than a month now. If you want to buy silver coins you have to pay well over 2x “market” rate for silver.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
>People are going to spend less and avoid big purchases.
>Yes, that includes housing. If this situation keeps
>getting worse and doesn’t stabilize, then all my housing
>predictions are off the table. Housing will obviously not
>perform well in a recession or depression.
Congrats Dave. Good to see you are coming to some common sense! It’s not over yet … the crisis seems to be spreading to South Korea and Indonesia now. When you think it has stopped, you turn on the news and hear another disaster story
October 9th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
The Barclay is now in Phase II! I know because the sign out front says so!
What could Phase II be? A fresh coat of brown paint? Removing the dead shrubs? I can’t wait!
October 9th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Gadwin, I hope we don’t have another Great Depression as well and I also don’t think we can count that possibility out. The failure of many large banks is very concerning and every past depression has had a liquidity crunch, massive bank failures and deflation. However, I believe that central banks will do anything and everything to avoid deflation. They have already stated as much.
I have gone out to restaurants and coffee shops a lot this past week and all I hear are people talking about their concern for the economy. I hear words like gold, Ron Paul, the Federal Reserve, AIG, etc… I am amazed at how tuned in people are to this situation. Not only that, I am amazed that the level of understanding is quite high.
Clearly, this is going to impact consumer confidence, which will in-turn impact our local economy. People are going to spend less and avoid big purchases. Yes, that includes housing. If this situation keeps getting worse and doesn’t stabilize, then all my housing predictions are off the table. Housing will obviously not perform well in a recession or depression.
I still believe that the fundamentals of our country are sound, as is our province. We have everything here and there is no reason we can’t have the best economy in the world. That said, having the best negative growth isn’t anything to be happy about.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Smart people will make alot of money on this crisis, but most will lose money. This one will pass soon as the world ramps up again in time to prepare for the next crisis.
Wonder if December 2012 will be the next one.
Oh thanks. I feel so much better now. You’re probably as right about this prediction as one of those bulls on this blog glibly dismissing the prospects of a housing correction, or of a recession even.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
just because you’ve been fortunate doesn’t give you any right to lord it over everyone else.
Sheesh!
We haven’t been “fortunate”. We’ve worked hard, saved our money, stayed out of debt, especially debt to buy toys and houses we can’t afford, kept ourselves educated and aware of the global forces affecting us. Many of us missed out on speculative (and risky) profits by being rather “stodgy” in our investment vehicles.
You know, all that boring stuff that older and wiser people drone on about. The bulls have had one heck of a run, which always leaves one heck of a mess behind. Now it is the turn for the bears to clean up the mess. And clean up while cleaning up. Nobody made you drink the kool-aid, in fact we warned you. Loudly, repeatedly.
We were mocked and ridiculed. Both in the media and at dinner parties, until we learned to bite our tongues. I will not mock and gloat over my friends and family, that’s not what civilized people do. But to you, anonymous stranger who won’t even make up a name?
Nyaa, nyaa, told you so! You deserve everything you’ve got. At least everything you’ll have left once the storm is over. I will have less than I, (and you also) would have had if we had all worked together to build a better future. But I will have more than you.
Too bad I don’t want want any of the juvenile toys you went so deep into debt to buy, some screaming hot deals on power boats and massive pick-up trucks to be had soon.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
I remember Y2K well, I was that person that had to wait an extra 5 minutes while the kid learned how to use a calculator so I could get my change back after renting a copy of Planet of the Apes.
Smart people will make alot of money on this crisis, but most will lose money. This one will pass soon as the world ramps up again in time to prepare for the next crisis.
Wonder if December 2012 will be the next one.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
People, we are in some serious sh*t. The U.S. consumer has been going on credit for too long and we’ve had possibly the biggest real estate bubble in the last 50 years.
We’re not just going to have a typical recession – if we had a typical recession, we’d have gotten away from this with a “slap on the hand.” The impending recession will be that much worse – and it’s possible that we may face another Great Depression. Let’s hope that we don’t have a second Great Depression, but with what’s going on, don’t count that out.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W.....sh_of_1929
Read this and substitute 2008 for 1929…
October 9th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
“just because you’ve been fortunate ”
Excuse me? Does being fortunate now mean “having put up with six years worth of snide comments and pitying looks as we refused to join in on the insupportable hysteria?”
I guess we were very fortunate.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
I was just at a coffee shop in downtown Vancouver called Sciue, which is next door to a currency and bullion exchange. There was a crowd of men in the bullion exchange and when I asked someone what was up it was explained to me that they were lining-up to buy gold coins.
Is it just me or is this getting a bit worrisome?
Part of me wants to believe that this is all going to work itself out (in fact, I question if this isn’t akin to the Y2K fiasco that left us all on pins and needles at midnight December 31, 1999 expecting the world’s financial system to crash over a couple extra zeros in the date range in computer programs: when in reality all that happened was one woman’s fax machine in Australia needed to be reprogrammed and some kid working in a video store in North Carolina had to calculate the correct change by hand) but another part of me wonders if we’re really going to experience some major upheaval across the board?
October 9th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Vancouver ReMax real estate agent Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 5:41 am
Ha-ha-ha…
You had me at the 4th link (buy our BC home, we’ll give you cash), and the last one really cracked me up (buy one new home, get one free)! How do you see the future of the Canadian RE market?
I think this autumn’s gonna be a great one!
Cheers from ReMax Vancouver,
Jay
October 9th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
“To us, it’s just fascinating to watch it all happen from our savings accounts and cheap rental units.”
Thats pretty cruel vansanity, I’m suprised your not embarrased to share your lack of caring about retirees whose investments are crashing and people losing their jobs. just because you’ve been fortunate doesn’t give you any right to lord it over everyone else.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Mark my words. There will be no independent canadian banks left standing after this is over. They will most likely be nationalized.
I have been saying this for over the last 2 years. Some of you foolishly believe that there is some magical shield around canadian banks, or that they have low exposure to c**p or that they are better capitalized. How can you take them for their word! They are lying..
Even TD is going to go under. It may be pulled under before it’s time. What is happening in the world is far beyond what most of you can comprehend. Essentially the banking model of the last 150 years is dead. A new model will have to be created. I am guessing that that new model will see commercial banks as utilities, moderately profitable but heavily regulated with substantial oversight.
No western nation will be able to do things any other way.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
jaybanks Says:
March 11th, 2008 at 5:36 am
As the Vancouver condos become more and more popular people goes mad about not to miss the opportunity to buy one on presale if it`s possible. The advantages of living in one of these is quite understandable especially for young couples buying their first home. The project that has been canceled created a taut situation so one should hurry up not to miss the great deals.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
“Well it’s not too likely to have a direct impact. Unless your employer uses an American bank account”
wasn’t there problems brewing at the golden ears bridge and the athlete’s village? financials are getting hammered here too, so wouldn’t they be cutting back on lending and all that? no more variable mortgages for new customers, no more zero down, no more 40-year mortgages…
October 9th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Nice link dingus.
Low mortgage rates and more prudent lending regulations have helped prevent Canada from a U.S.-style meltdown, Jim Murphy, president of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, said on the call.
This includes the pending elimination of 40-year and zero-down payment mortgages when the government pulls its backing for these products on Oct. 15, he added.
So the key example of our prudence is our policy of closing the barn doors after the horses have left?
October 9th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Ed
Well it’s not too likely to have a direct impact. Unless your employer uses an American bank account. The problem will come if things get worse and the Americans try to halt a run on the banks by offering 100% protection, that’s what happened in the Great Depression and it’s happening right now with Ireland and Great Britain. In the current case on the Isles the problem created is that many British account holders have moved their money to the 100% guaranteed Irish accounts sucking money from the British banks. Hopefully the Americans don’t pull that crap but if they do it could mean serious trouble up here as banks lose capitalization.
October 9th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
More joy from the Globe and Mail
Real estate industry seeks to quell fears
http://tinyurl.com/476hy2
There has been a real sea change in reporting these days, no?
October 9th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Any reasonable speculation on the impact of a total lockup in the USA on the system here in Canada? I would expect to see delayed paycheques, shortages of foods and other essentials in the US, and so on, but what would be the impact here?
October 9th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
No sane bear was cheering for a recession. We are merely PREDICTING a recession because of the unfolding U.S. financial meltdown.
Fortunately, those that expect the sh*t to hit the fan have prepared themselves in advance of the economic downturn.
Canada won’t escape the financial carnage in the U.S. I can’t even imagine how much BC real estate prices will fall in 2009 … specuvestors, look out below!
October 9th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
I just have to get something off my chest… there’s been people here that say some of us are cheering for a recession or worse. No, we’re not cheering for it, we saw it coming and prepared ourselves for it. To us, it’s just fascinating to watch it all happen from our savings accounts and cheap rental units.
When others laughed at the thought of a recession or housing downturn and instead incurred massive debt, we bit our tongues and waited. How often did you read the quote on here: “when the tide goes out we’ll see who was swimming naked”? What did you think we were talking about?
Just to name a few, over the past few years we saw:
real greed and propaganda;
1) lending become far looser than it had before;
2) HELOC and 0 down mortgages;
3) interest rates held extremely low, far too long;
4) a housing boom;
5) inflation numbers not fitting what we saw in our lives;
6) jobs numbers climb when main industries were crashing;
7) new products come on the market to keep prices climbing;
9) A BUBBLE both in real estate and in commodities;
10) an inevitable bust just waiting to happen.
Those that made money and are out of the speculative buying of both housing and equities, we tip our hat to you. Remember bulls make money, bears make money and piggies go to slaughter.
So don’t give me this BS that we’re so naive, all of the sudden, that we’re “cheering” for a recession or worse. We left that type of ignorance to you. We warned and you laughed and called us bitter. Spare me this BS. We know we’re all affected by what is happening now, some of us just better prepared for it because we saw it coming.
If you think you’ve seen it all, just wait for the housing meltdown to really gain some momentum locally, or maybe I’m just bitter because I “missed” the boom.
October 9th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Thank Mickey & ant…I was pretty sure I was covered in different accounts, but it’s always reassuring to get further confirmation.
ant – I felt like capitulating more than once, but now the long wait is finally over and there’s no temptation whatsoever.
October 9th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
I had all my future house savings in ING and decided to split off half to Coast Capital last week as the financial fiasco unfolded in the States. I wanted to use banks that still offered high interest with no service charges. I also though it best to continue to build up my relationship with Coast Capital (where my chequing account is) so when it comes time to get that first mortgage, I will be in a better position to get accepted.
October 9th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
“Credit crisis hits Canada
Thursday October 9, 2:07 pm ET
By Rob Gillies, Associated Press Writer
Canadian finance minister looking for ways to keep credit flowing
TORONTO (AP) — The global credit crisis is starting to restrict the ability of Canadians to obtain loans for mortgages, cars and investments, Canada’s finance minister said Thursday. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he is looking to increase liquidity in the market but declined to release details.”
source: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081009.....risis.html
October 9th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Worried about bank accounts above $100k? Geez, I wish I had your guys problems!
October 9th, 2008 at 11:57 am
AnneW, oh I’m thankful alright, but I don’t attribute it to ‘luck’ or anything like that – there have been times in the last few years I’ve felt like giving in, taking on some of that easy credit and signing up for more debt than I can handle.
.
That no longer looks like such a good idea
And since I intend to keep the money I’ve been able to save, I’m glad this topic came up for discussion!
October 9th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Thanks Mickyfinn! I was skeptical about the 3 accounts in one institution being covered for a couple (2 single accounts and 1 joint account) so I went to the CDIC site to try to get confirmation and found this handy CDIC insurance calculator:
http://www.cdic.ca/index.cfm?c.....mp;la_id=1
It does appear to be true, which is good to know. I’ve been procrastinating opening an account at a new bank, now I know I just have to move my money around with our existing accounts and each one will be covered up to the $100k limit. I’m going to do that now, thanks for the info!
October 9th, 2008 at 11:49 am
For everyone who has more than $100,000 to worry about splitting among banks… just take a minute and be thankful for all that you have! Many of our peers don’t have this “problem” to worry about!
October 9th, 2008 at 11:36 am
This is a real issue the all of us should take seriously. There is no guarantee that one or more of the Canadian banks will not get dragged down into the financial malaise that we are witnessing globally.
This is also an easy issue for which you can make some quick changes and provide yourself with increased security.
In my case, I have spread my deposits out over multiple institutions. All of the banks now offer high interest savings accounts: like HSBC which pays me nearly 3% in an account they call the “Direct Savings account” which is HSBC’s way of competing with ING – where I have another account. As an aside, HSBC justifies their ability to pay a high rate of interest on this account by not providing any signifianct amount of services with it. What that translates to is that to transfer money into or our of their Direct Savings account you need to make the transfer online (big deal).
Similarly, I have money at each of my brokerage accounts placed into bankers’ acceptances (I’m not advocating bankers’ acceptances in particular but in general I am willing to accept the risk as these instruments are from the big Canadian banks like Royal, Scotia, TD etc. and at least for now they seem stable enough and in any event a bankers’ acceptance can be sold anytime without penalty.)
In the plainest of terms what you want to do is spread your money amongst multiple institutions and take advantage of the $100,000 of deposit insurance protection and or the investment dealers insurance that you receive per institution.
For those of you who are TD bank fans, TD has a number of separate legal entities and as a result you can have separate accounts with each of these entities and get the $100k protection times 4 while doing alot of banking at TD!
By the way, for those of you who have a spouse, you can have a second and third account at each bank by opening separate personal accounts as well as a joint account… each account benefits from its own $100k of deposit insurance protection.
Put your money away safely and patiently wait for the real estate train wreck to unfold. As I have mentioned previously, the train is picking up speed by the day and it is already out of control.