This is basic supply and demand. Economics 101.

Vancouver real estate is more expensive because WAY more people want to live here and move from other parts of the Canada and the World.

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I used to think that, too. Someone pointed out that in Vancouver’s case, inventory has already exceeded any ability to suck it up. The unaffordability wall has been hit hard – it is almost meaningless now what inventory is. We’ve already passed a realistic absorption rate.

That’s probably true, the inventory numbers now will become irrelevant. It’s a new fiscal game.

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We’re 2 years behind Phoenix (they peaked in spring 2006). In October of 2006, their inventory was 41k. This works out to 1 listing per 112 residents. Our current inventory is 20.5k, or 1 listing for every 123 residents. We might already be the Phoenix of Canada.

The Phoenix inventory peaked at 50k, so if we hit 27.5k, we will be at the equivalent of Phoenix’s highest level.

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True. Seems most people can’t connect the dots. This is a manufactured financial crisis – it was done, not by incompetence, but by design.

I had my ‘lightbulb’ moment back in 2005, right around the time I found VHB and HBB. I saw the banksters deliberately driving the bus off a cliff … then, figured they could come back to the taxpayer and make them pay for the privilege of being financially screwed. Then the next ‘lightbulb’ realization – when this all shakes out, probably the last thing on anyone’s mind will be Real Estate.

When the banksters can do this for their own profit and amusement, what do you think they have planned for us down the line? People talk like real estate will bounce back in 2009 or 2010 and we will go back to business as usual and live happily ever after.

I’m pretty sure the intentional crating of the global economy will end badly (not for them, but for us). I could be wrong, but I’m not.

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Just asking…

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This is true historically however there is a decent chance of a protracted period of “reasonable” prices. The “I know lots of people who will buy when prices drop even 20%” — the so-called pent-up demand — argument really does ignore the investor component of the market who need properties to cash flow. These investors will inevitably set the price, much to the chagrin of the knife catchers.

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Supply, supply, supply. Too many shoebox condos out there. We are drowning in a glut of inventory. By next year, we will probably exceed 25K inventory for REBGV, and from there, who knows how high inventory will get.

Maybe we will be like Phoenix where inventory goes off the charts. Will Vancouver become the Phoenix of Canada?

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By the time it drops that far, and it will, most people will be scared sh*tless it will drop further, and many will be worried about keeping their jobs, let alone investing.

Look to the US for numerous examples of previously booming areas where prices have dropped 20% — no crowds are lining up to buy at 20%, though some have started to buy in where there are 50% drops — that’s considered a bargain, though even that evaluation may change in time.

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In the long term, not the short term.

The more buyers you have in any market who are willing to pay more to buy than to rent, the more time you will spend in bubble territory and the bigger the bubbles will be.

But the bubbles will end, inevitably.

What this means is that in a place like Vancouver you can only get a reasonable price about 20% of the time. But wait for it, it will arrive again.

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The market isn’t influenced by such arbitrary distinctions; it’ll go as low as it goes. No one in 2001-2003 (or the late 1990′s for that matter) was saying that housing was cheap at the time, so it could certainly fall to those levels — or lower, depending on the depth of the recession just beginning.

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Quoi? When it comes down to it buy vs rent is normally a personal choice and not really a financial one unless there is a bubble. The mere presence of a rental market with landlords trying to make a profit, along with owners and landlords competing over the same housing stock, requires fundamentals to be the same for both.

It’s actually a difficult concept for those who prefer to own and are willing to pay a premium to do so.

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After living here (Montreal) for a few months you come to appreciate the natural beauty and convenience that Vancouver has to offer over Montreal. I can’t wait to move back to Vancouver in a few years.

Housing is a BIT cheaper here, but not that crazy. Rent can be very cheap if you look around. I’m not going to buy a place here, since I don’t see myself sticking around for that long.

Hopefully Vancouver prices will be way low when I return after the olympics

As for Quattro, shame on the owners for buying in such a scummy neighborhood.

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Alex,
Agreed! I won’t consider buying anything until prices are 35% off peak. When this happens, it should be clearer if we will see 50% declines or if 35% is good enough to jump back in. But I really can’t see more than 50% in any scenario, as that would put prices well below the real pre-bubble levels.

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http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cs.....tropolitan

St John, Saguenay, Sherbrooke, Trois Rivieres, Montreal and Abbotsford are the only places below us of the 28 cities in Canada measured.

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BTW, I don’t think the bottom will be a brief window. Lots of time to watch the market and shop carefully. Remember, (if I’m right) we are entering a nasty, lingering global recession, and no-one will have the cash AND inclination to jump back in the deep end.
Those with cash don’t jump, jumpers will have no cash, and easy credit won’t be back for a long time.

If I’m wrong I won’t be carefully shopping with cash, so my place that I won’t be able to buy will be on the market for you. Nice place too!

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BTW, why do so many people seem to think Yaletown condos will be worth less than 100k?
Even that crappy Robinson tower at Helmcken and Richards was more than 100k pre-bubble. In Jan 2001, a 611 sq ft unit in that building sold for $117,700.

Be careful not to be too bearish, or you will miss out on the next buying opportunity.

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Well, call in Ritchie Brothers, sell off the assets, and start dismantling that yuppie scum sh*thole. Maybe they can also stop that useless highway project and we can cut our losses as well. Sure would be funny if it was in receivership too during the 2010 Olympics.

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Dear Mr. Campbell:

Please raise my taxes, so that we can help these people out.

I am sure if you could convince Bill Good to run a special on his show, and highlight what an economic engine Whistler is; many other people like me will come forward and volunteer to have their taxes raised to avoid an embarrassment with the World Olympic Organizers.

http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....74d30c1e73

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In other words, if people are not willing to pay more to buy than to rent, it will not cost more to buy than to rent.

So simple, yet so hard to understand for many.

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http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....79753.html

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Not according to Statscan – median family incomes in Montreal and Vancouver are about the same: both among the lowest of big Canadian cities.

Higher income taxes mean a lower rent/income, and higher property taxes mean a lower price/rent. Both legitimate reasons for prices in Vancouver to be higher than in Montreal – but nowhere near the difference we see today.

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Salaries are much higher in Montreal than here. Vancouver is four or five from the bottom of Canadian cities for wages. Only Abbotsford, St John’s and a couple others are below us.

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