Here’s an open question for discussion and a bit of a scientific experiment. I noticed a recent story on the UBC election stock market and that reminded me of a few other stories I’ve seen on prediction markets and their accuracy. It turns out that in many cases the aggregate of a groups prediction or estimation is more accurate than individual experts, particularly when money is at stake.
Last month we saw year-over-year price loss in many areas of the lower mainland. These drops were seen across all types of housing: condos, townhouses and detached homes, but the most dramatic price drop was seen in Port Moody which saw an astounding year over year price decline of 20.4% for the benchmark price of a detached house. That number is so large, I initially thought this may be a typo or error, but it has remained in place throughout numerous news stories and the original REBGV housing price index table.
So lets do a little experiment. Lets see if the readers of this site, as a group, can accurately predict which area of the REBGV will see the largest percentage decline in the benchmark price of a detached home. To clarify: Which area of the lower mainland will show the largest monthly house price decline during the month of October 2008? Vote below and when October REBGV benchmark stats are release we’ll see how accurate we’ve been: