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Which REBGV area will see biggest declines?

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The Vancouver house boom goes bustHere’s an open question for discussion and a bit of a scientific experiment.  I noticed a recent story on the UBC election stock market and that reminded me of a few other stories I’ve seen on prediction markets and their accuracy.  It turns out that in many cases the aggregate of a groups prediction or estimation is more accurate than individual experts, particularly when money is at stake.

Last month we saw year-over-year price loss in many areas of the lower mainland.  These drops were seen across all types of housing: condos, townhouses and detached homes, but the most dramatic price drop was seen in Port Moody which saw an astounding year over year price decline of 20.4% for the benchmark price of a detached house.  That number is so large, I initially thought this may be a typo or error, but it has remained in place throughout numerous news stories and the original REBGV housing price index table.

So lets do a little experiment.  Lets see if the readers of this site, as a group, can accurately predict which area of the REBGV will see the largest percentage decline in the benchmark price of a detached home.  To clarify: Which area of the lower mainland will show the largest monthly house price decline during the month of October 2008?  Vote below and when October REBGV benchmark stats are release we’ll see how accurate we’ve been:

[poll id=”30″]

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tedd

silly me i hardly post i just noticed the says is automatic i thought the other ted went by ted says. I have egg on my face. I will now on go by tedd

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ted

i wrote that last comment i am not ted says but ted

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ted

My fellow Americans,” Bush said, “at long last, we have reached the end of the dark period in American history that will come to be known as the Clinton Era, eight long years characterized by unprecedented economic expansion, a sharp decrease in crime, and sustained peace overseas. The time has come to put all of that behind us.” To bad the economic prosperity was artificial much like the prosperity under bush was and as for peace overseas. Are you refering to the trampling of international law with boming yugoslavia and the starving of a million iraqis. Yes Bush is no good. But you can't blame it all on him bush. This nonsense has been going on for a quarter century. Bush is only guilty of not being able to keep the illusion going. There is virtually no difference between Clinton… Read more »

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Limey

"If only London were a world class city such as Vancouver."

That's a bit harsh!

Does London have a steam clock? I don't think so.

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Mold City

KAEOTP: Too bad London doesn't have the Olympics coming 😉

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alexcanuck

There is a world of difference between a bum on the corner asking for change and a violent criminal mugging people. I quite agree that Richmond is not a good location for the former, not so sure about the latter.

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Keeping an Eye on th

LONDON ….. A VANNCOUVER WAANABE

"The financial crisis is taking a heavy toll on London's once-thriving property market, as real-estate agents report the biggest slump in business since records began 30 years ago.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12240206124243400…

London's real-estate agents sold an average of 8.3 properties apiece in the three months ended in September, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. That is the lowest tally for any region of the country since the survey started in 1978. In Britain as a whole, agents sold an average of 11.5 properties during the three-month period, down more than 50% from"

If only London were a world class city such as Vancouver.

But too bad, London just doesn't cut it.

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NO -LYMPICS

arit:

Sorry if that comment caused you concern, but I think its a reasonably good prediction based on the variables at hand. The negative element simply needs cheap accessible mobility…RAV will fit the bill. Richmond has had a few brothels uncovered…thus the prostitution element exists.

The ingredients for the increased crime recipe are there, or will be soon.

Richmond's portion of RAV is almost entirely located in areas that will undergo transition, and will ultimately attract the negative elements , and perhaps even after the transition is completed

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Gekko

Here are a couple of OT links about current economic stuffs. The first is for anyone who wants a good giggle. The second one I found very interesting. http://www.theonion.com/content/news/bush_calls_f… "In a nationally televised address to the American people Wednesday night, President Bush called upon every man, woman, and child to spiral uncontrollably downward into complete and utter panic." http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic… "Imaginary wealth Roger Bootle, an economist we hold in great esteem, recently said “The essential truth is that umpteen billions of dollars have been magicked out of nowhere – and must return whence they came, no amount of financial gerrymandering can obscure or diminish this point”. He further said “Do not expect the current market turmoil to go away easily or quickly. It is not imaginable or fanciful, on the contrary it is the direct result of the creation, on a… Read more »

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patriotz

At SOME price renting it out does start to make sense again. And the market may flash past that point without even pausing.

Well sure, but that's over 50% off the market peak, and we're not going to get there for a couple of years, unless we see something even faster than the early 80's bust.

There are still a lot of fools out there who will see a "bargain" in a condo when it's still over rent equivalence.

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alexcanuck

Those last two were me. Why does it forget who I am? Am I talking too much?

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Anonymous

Asia markets now a sea of red. OK, a trillion bucks of coordinated central bank bailout bought one bounce and one flat day. Miracles are getting expensive these days! And hard to find. Back to the previously scheduled meltdown.

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Anonymous

Numbers aren’t anywhere close to making rentals work. They will sell. It’s just a matter of price.

At SOME price renting it out does start to make sense again. And the market may flash past that point without even pausing. Overshoot, you know.If the economic woes don't resolve soon (they won't, IMHO) this is going to be the mother of all crashes.

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patriotz

When they can’t sell they’ll call a Property Manager to try to lease it out to a renter

Numbers aren't anywhere close to making rentals work. They will sell. It's just a matter of price.

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Vansanity

Re: The poll – I think there are so many that are so over inflated it really is tough to say. I vote Van East for similar reasons to Patiently Waiting, but we'll see.

Off-Topic-ish – I have been watching developers who have "left over" units that they can't sell. They are looking to complete the units and sell as finished on mls. Some of you have seen this before, in a certain bubbles just south of here. When they can't sell they'll call a Property Manager to try to lease it out to a renter. When that fails… well, I don't have to tell you guys.

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arit

sudcouver

Thanks for the input.

NOLYMPICS

"Watch the drug dealers, junkies , hookers and gang bangers establish their turf in these areas thanks to RAV aka crime train…area basically vacant after normal business hours and has lots of back alleys etc to work the

night shift"

Great, I'll be watching (sigh…)

Regards,

arit

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NO -LYMPICS

RAV line in Richmond will be near and run parallel to the old Brighouse Industrial Estates (immediately West of #3RD.)where there are a lot of low rise warehouses and ligh industrial. (This is the area I alluded to in an earlier post that the City aims to redevelop , but may become a ghost town when the economy tanks and property taxes shoot skyward forcing businesses out )

Watch the drug dealers, junkies , hookers and gang bangers establish their turf in these areas thanks to RAV aka crime train…area basically vacant after normal business hours and has lots of back alleys etc to work the "night shift".

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Sudcouver

Arit,

For reference, my family sold a 4 bedroom 3 bathroom home in Westwind in the late 90's for just under 400k. The house would easily get 800k today.

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bdk

Is Clam Chowderhead Dosh?

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bdk

Post 32 was me, not sure why my name disappeared.

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Anonymous

"Watch the muggings (and worse) start once RAV is open for business" Correct "Not to sound racist but the heavy Chinese population in Richmond will make for some really bad panhandling." Incorrect When the Coast Mountain Bus (Vancouver buses) went on strike crime shot up in West Van (they have their own buses). When the Ironworkers memorial was under construction crime went down in North Van. The path of least resistance is the path the junkies will take and 95 pound housewives sporting $1,000 purses and hopping out of their Lexus SUV's are about as prime a target as you can get. Who was the garage bandit targeting a few years ago in Vancouver West? Asian woman driving mercedes because they have a reputation for carrying cash. My friend and I stopped and glared down a junkie hassling an asian… Read more »

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Clam Chowderhead

I don't doubt that property crime will increase around stations in Richmond once the RAV line opens, but I don't expect to see many bums hanging out. Bums are surprisingly smart, they go where they can panhandle money, ie the prime d/t corners with heavy traffic. Not to sound racist but the heavy Chinese population in Richmond will make for some really bad panhandling. They will not give spare change to the bums and the bums know that.

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SurreyJoe

My vote was for Coquitlam. Two reasons. Coquitlam was still showing a year-over-year gain over last year in September. It sits right beside Port Moody which is down 20%. So I think there's some potential for catch up. Second Westwood Plateau has just a ton of homes for sale right now. Those houses are not selling and I think we are seeing some motivated vendors.

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NO -LYMPICS

Richmond Council should have a photo of the North Surrey Skytrain station area superimposed at most of its new RAV -SkyTrain(crime train) stations. That's what the future likely holds. Pretty Scary !

Watch the muggings (and worse) start once RAV is open for business…. and worse at the RiverRock casino station . Lots of disposable cash to borrow permanently .

Vancouver Police stats: Approx. 60% of property crimes occur within 600 metres of SkyTrain line. (Gee, what a coincidence ! )

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