BC to see steepest price drop in 2009
The Canadian Real Estate Association has just released an updated housing market forecast and predicts that next year BC will see the steepest house sales price drops anywhere in Canada.
The association predicted a 7.8 per cent decline next year in the average residential sales price in B.C., compared to a 2.1 decrease across Canada.
Average price is forecast to reach new heights in six of 10 province in 2009, but B.C., where lower sales activity is expected, will continue to weigh on the national average price, the association said in a news release.
The association is forecasting an 11.7 per cent drop in sales activity in B.C. for 2009, compared to a three per cent drop across the country.
Hat-tip to Richard for the story link.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 11:22 am
I’m #1 (i tink)
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jesse Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 11:37 am
-7.8%. Closer, but no. -15 to -20% lower and maybe they’re on to something.
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Bearish Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 11:38 am
I’m #2!
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Randallbard is a tool Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 11:43 am
I’m #4, and Randallbard is still a tool!!!!
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Gadwin Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
-7.8% decline? Try -20% decline!
What goes up, must come DOWN!
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Bearish Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Just want to show everyone the total cost if someone spent $50K more to purchase his/her home.
Downpayment $80K
Purchased for: $400K Purchased for $350K
Mortgage $320K $270K
Interest Rate: 6% 6%(assumed average in future)
Monthly P&I PMT: $1808.81 $1808.81
Amortization: 35 years 22 years 8 months
Total P&I PMT: $759,695 $490,641
Total savings: $269,054
So over the life the mortgage, the one who paid $50K more has to pay 12 year and 4 month longer and $269054 more.
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anon Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
If the Pollyanas of RE think prices will drop 8%, then you know the actual figure will be multiples thereof.
I GOL’d (guffawed out loud) at Lindberg’s prediction: “housing demand will rebound…once economic growth shows signs of rebounding next year.”
What signs? What a howler!
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Bearish Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Sorry, my table skewed. So I list the two case separately.
Downpayment $80K, assume in the next 35 years the average interest rate is 6% and the person who spent $50K less to purchase the similar home pay the same amount every month.
For someone paid $400K, total mortgage amount $320K and monthly payment $1808.81 and the amortization 35 years so the total payment is $759,695.
For someone paid $350K for the similar home, total mortgage only $270K and monthly payment $1808.81. The amortization will be only 22 years and 8 months and the total payment will be $490,641.
The difference is $269054!!!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Latest on Nanaimo’s own Millenium deal.
Looks ugly, and Chicken Little’s warnings meets chicken shit ” experts” at City Hall
http://www.canada.com/nanaimod.....255b6510ab
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JordanClark Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
If only someone keeps stats on the accuracy of the biased annual forecasts by the Canadian Real Estate Association. They probably have a standard deviation over 50%.
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Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
“MONKEYS CAN NOT PUT THIS WORLD ON FIRE”.-GRAND FATHER.
I like Gregory Klump and Cameron Muir,I always appreciate their words and will countinue to do so in future because they officially have access to hard core data to pour into their visions but what about all these Predictions By
Shillers,Lynch,Muir,and Gregory Klump?
“Higher levels predict future input by matching partial sequences and projecting their expectations to the lower levels. However, when a mismatch between input and memorized/predicted sequences occurs, a more complete representation propagates upwards. This causes alternative ‘interpretations’ to be activated at higher levels, which in turn generates other predictions at lower levels.”
So that was a story i mean theory of prediction by economists,bears,and bulls As an answer was posted in response to Anonymous #6 at #234 on last thread.
Farther,i want to say if something is in a place for short term adjustment should i start juming in and out to save few bucks?then re-enter at low? in between what about that commision i will pay to realtors?,laywers fee?,opening and closing cost?,tax differences between first time buyers and second time buyers?.
When both bears and bulls have been wrong time by time same way economists are changing their prediction because of short term Market Volatility then who on the earth will figure out right timing to enter and exit?
To answer this question i start memorized what my grand father once told me before he died,he said”If Monkeys ever learned how to light a fire they can put this world on fire”That is an answer to any prediction.
What could be helpful to make decision for future or current purchase?.
Evidence those are available to make your mind to purchase are as following.
1.Past Performance of any perticular Place.
2.Social,Economical,and Political environment based on long term standing,Past performance of natural environment.
3.Threats.
Upward Trends in the past are constant rather than short term un constant Market Volatility that’s why the verdict for vancouver real estate “NEVER GO DOWN”
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randy Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
just a few months back they were predicting double digit prices for this year. I don’t think they are aware of the reality in B.C
After the olympics with all those people being laid off with no jobs, I think they might have got their figs wong wong.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down, prices are going down now, at almost $1000 a day for a detached home in the area REBGV covers.
If you own a detached home, you are losing almost $1000 a day, or 30,000 in a month!
Down, down, down, $30,000 down!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Well, If those monkeys got loose with BIC Lighters and burned down the Mountains, the Ocean and Bob Rennie’s office, Vancouver real estate go DOWN like Monica Lewinsky !
Let’s keep our fingers crossed !!!
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wong Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
is this for all residenial sales homes and condos combined.
are houses going to fall more than condos in percentage terms or will be about 8% for each
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tim Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
anyone want to buy my home (sell it real cheap and will throw in the furniture and the SUV and maybe even the wife !) Jut buy my blimmin house PLEASE !!!!!!! as cant take these predicited falls anymore
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tim Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
last comment from me was joke if you guys didnt realise
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
#13 anon,
i own a detached since 1998 value of this home has increased by 133 percent since 98 however this home is a shelter for four diffrent genration include 2 different families in the 2 official basements total number of people living in this shelter comes to 9+relitives and visitors.
by the way i live in appartment,i have no plan to sell our grand family home and i can tell you nobody is losing $1000 a day, or 30,000 in a month but individual smart buyers might get some partial deals.
REBGV graph is just a type of understanding for direction not really detect the picture for perticular homes you can also see the latest graph where benchmark prices are up than last month but average prices are down by SPINNERS.
What you see a fall sometime is a fall of acceleration when buyers are unable to find a properties worth similar prices,age,and location.
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BBY Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
I really think that the 7.8% number is to sway seller psychology in their favour.
- They have to “announce” that prices are dropping so that realtors(tm) can use this “official” announcement to persuade sellers to lower their prices. Without lowering prices there won’t be a sale, and therefore no commisions.
- They can’t announce a double digit drop, otherwise that would scare buyers away. By keeping a modest 7.8% drop (my goodness, what accuracy!) as the steepest decline, the number looks kinda happy. I mean 7 is lucky in European culture and 8 is lucky in Chinese culture. So 7.8% must indeed be lucky for all!
But really, 7.8% is merely a number they plucked from their collect butts. It’ll be alot lower than that. Greater Vancouver will probably be down 15% from peak at the end of this year.
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Re-diculous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Here’s a real piece of crap from “Independent Real Estate analyst” Peter Norman of the Altus Group played on BNN this afternoon. His assessment is pretty bullish from someone claiming to be “independent” at this point I must say – I will be writing to BNN and challenging his independent credentials.
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip111009#clip111009
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Randallbard is a tool Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
We’re already down 15% from the peak, we should be -20%+ by the end of the year.
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Mold City Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
If only someone keeps stats on the accuracy of the biased annual forecasts
Some of these silly economist quotes and predictions are cataloged in the wiki. Anyone can add forecasts for the public record here:
http://vancouvercondo.info/wik.....redictions
I can’t wait to see how these all work out in the next year, so far most of their records are less than stellar.
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Randallbard is a tool Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Here are some priceless quotes from that Peter Norman piece:
“Our (Canada’s) price environment never went up”
“We’ve never seen those strong year-on-year double digits gains we saw in some other markets”
Sure, if you don’t include: Victoria, Vancouver, Kamloops, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Saint John and Halifax!! What a Randallbard!
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BBY Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Randallbard is a tool said ” We’re already down 15% from the peak…”
Do you have anything but a gut feel to back up the 15% number? While I share the sentiment, I have only seen the 9.8% decline from peak number gleaned from the October REGBV report. If there’s some numbers to back up the 15% claim, I’d love to see them.
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wolfey Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
I think it’s only 6-8 % down.
But I only considered the BBy / east Van locals not west or rich
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zero Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
It’s only going to get worse.
Now that clueless Campbell has all but legislated that you will have to pay property taxes calculated on the all time high evaluation RE prices, who in their sane mind would buy RE when the cost of maintaining it will be based on an evaluations that may never be seen again for many years! It took nearly a decade of cheap credit to pump up these RE prices to absolutely unfathomable levels, those days are gone. At least for the next few generations. The banks are not lowering interest rates like they did before, even though the RBC looks like dropping rates to record lows. And credit it seems is going to stay tight, at the very least tighter than it has been for many decades.
Prices are going down…and so they should, and not just a little. I see no reason why Vancouver’s average price for home to be 700k. When the median income can only support a home some where in the 200-300k range, at maximum! Vancouver, and for that matter the entire GVRD’s home prices have to come down at least 50%…for the city of Vancouver, North Vancouver, West Vancouver more like 70%.
We are paying prices for absolute rubbish. You can go down to Beverly Hills in California and for the same money buy plush, beautiful homes…even before their market correction!
Further, on the argument that immigrants coming into the Vancouver will the source for the next push in prices. Take a good look who is coming here. I don’t see people with bags of money coming to Vancouver, I see African, Latin American and Asians who come into the market and work for much lower wages and doing low wage jobs. The class of immigrant coming into Vancouver, is only going to put greater pressure on prices coming down.
There is absolutely NOTHING propping up this RE market in Vancouver other than BS. Savings rate in BC is nearly -10%, inflation is high, income growth is nonexistant, tax load increasing at a reckless rate, wealth is leaving the province and being replaced with poorer people, and we have a Provincial Leadership that has much foresight as Captain Smith and his crew, on the Titanic.
And of course there is THE BIG ONE yet to come. Now that home prices are at the beginning of their collapse, we are only a little over a year away, when the baby boomers start retiring. Now that their RRSP’s have taken a MAJOR HIT, where do you think they are going to get their retirement money now? Ladies and gentlemen, you think it is bad now! Wait another 18 months! The BLOOD BATH IS GOING TO START. All those baby boomers with no money, and with there only one asset of value left…their homes. And they will all be well aware that there will be many other baby boomers in the same position. THE RACE WILL BE ON…your going to see 1,000’s of homes for sale. You may even see the average home price in Vancouver go down to below $100,000! WHO KNOWS! If your a baby boomer, are you going to chance it?
No boys and girls, this is only the beginning. The pressure on downward RE prices is going to increase and increase for many years. Thank you, baby boomers! Way to go! Be patient people, the baby boomers are going to do all the work for you, and you’ll be laughing all the way to the bank…don’t worry about getting a mortgage, with the boomers retiring, houses will be so cheap you wont need a mortgage! Only down part to this is that you may be paying property taxes for a house rated at $700,000 when it is only worth $100,000. Well, at least there are elections and we can fix that. Unlike, there is no fixing what the baby boomers are going to do to home prices…now that their RRSPs are kaput.
So, sit back and watch the blood bath folks, it’s coming. This is a time, to laugh at every one of those idiots who got into this housing market and was part of the BS.
A word of advice, don’t feel sorry for anyone of these people. Those who lose money in this collapse, deserve to do so. No mercy! Let them pay the price, they didn’t give a damn what they were doing to everyone else, when it was all in their interests.
So sit back and enjoy; the financial blood bath is on its way!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Just got back and overheard someone talking to another about how BAD the banks were to let them buy a place with only 5 % down…aka said the junkie to the pusher
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Dave Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Zero, that’s not how municipal taxes work. Your assessed value is only relevant in relation to the assessed values of all homes in the particular municipality. Locking the assessment will only favour those whose values have dropped the most.
I don’t agree with freezing the assessment numbers. There is no reason to be afraid of market values.
It’s silly to cheer for a ‘bloodbath’. There is nothing enjoyable about it.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Campbell’s property assessment freeze is looking more and more like a scam.
If the Provincial election is in MAY, 2009, Local Gov’ts will be establishing their MILL Rates and individual property taxes about the same time for the early JULY, 2009 deadlines .
My guess is the ” song and dance ” will be for Local Gov’ts to be on cue and say no property tax increases, given the property assessment freeze should, in theory ( and especially during these tough economic times ) translate into the same MILL rate hence the same property taxes. I don’t think the public has too much appetite for being doubly or multiply hosed ie collapse in property value, …frozen assessment, …less disposable income yet Gov’ts even dare try a tax increase?
In other words, Campbell did a pre-emptive strike to stamp out a possible election issue.
Other thing that comes to mind is the eligibility for Homeowners Grant. I’ll bet that if not for the assessment freeze, a lot of poor schmucks would have qualified via a lower assessment, given the current benchmark to qualify for the Homewoners Grant was $950,000 ( up from the previous $780,000 ), but with property prices now dropping. If they let these schmucks assessments drop, this creates a greater pool to qualify for the Grant then mill rates and/or taxes will need to be raised, correct ?
Good old Gordo !
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satv is a tool Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
“i own a detached since 1998 value of this home has increased by 133 percent since 98 however this home is a shelter for four diffrent genration include 2 different families in the 2 official basements total number of people living in this shelter comes to 9+relitives and visitors.”
If it takes 9 relatives to pay for a house at 1998 prices does that mean a family should put 18 relatives in one house at todays prices?
Isn’t that a bit disgusting?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
City may have to order Millenium to speed up Olympic village , it has to be completed by SEPT.30 2009, but Vancouver pays for the extra costs . VANOC gets possession in NOV. 1 2009 . Now the Mexican standoff starts if the City dare push it and the City incur these costs…or trust if Millenium is able to complete by Sept. 30, 2009
Head for the hills Vancouver taxpayers !
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHoo.....CouldRise/
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Mike Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Hey Everyone,
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27648884/
Here’s a GREAT article today from MSNBC about how a lot of home owners in the US are STILL in denial. This is what’s happening/going to happen here in the not too distant future.
Cheers.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
This whole assessment freeze business is a scam! Why use last year’s market for this year’s taxes?
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Mike, nice article, thanks. I agree, denial will be here for years. There are some pretty silly beliefs behind it, discussed here many times.
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Tony Danza Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
It’s silly to cheer for a ‘bloodbath’. There is nothing enjoyable about it…
…said the perma-bull to the bear.
If you’ve been a bear these last several years and you’ve got cash (or a job) and patience there’s plenty that’s enjoyable about it, probably as enjoyable as it was for the bulls on the way up Dave. I’m enjoying the hell out of myself!
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Tony Danza Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Rah Rah!
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bums up 2 Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Dave will have to watch this Zeitgeit:addendum to understand what is happening here
http://video.google.com/videop.....7695921912
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Keeping an Eye on the Pimps Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Could the authors of the report be so incompetent or could they possibly be such liars?
Did Maggie write this report?
I don’t think even Rennie would put his name on this one.
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MickeyFinn Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
The father of one of my kid’s soccer team-mate is a real estate investor (apparently that’s all he does and that’s all he has done for quite some time now). He has done well by buying low and holding for yield.
Recently, he has been actively investigating investment opportunities arising from receiverships of local development projects. But he told me on the weekend that even in this ugly market he has not seen anything he would buy because the prices have not fallen enough to justify investing.
And here’s the real juicy part… wait for it… he has also just recently walked away from two down-payments he made on units in local projects where he had to admit that he had made a mistake.
As Shakespeare once penned, “Oh how sweet the smell of real-estate death.”
Sheesh, it’s gotta be a scary time to be a developer in Vancouver.
On the other hand is a great time to be a real estate bear… hibernating for just a little while longer only to climb out of the den and pick-up a bargain from the wreckage.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
#30,
Is that how you do your math? wham fantastic to see thumbs up on your post because it’s more easy that way to count idiots on the blogs.
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Informer7 Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
#40 do you think it’s better to have family members sleep in the same bed? Isn’t that why you were born? Brother and Sister=baby Satv?
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alicecanuck Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
i want to give remembrance to my balls, which i buried in my old back yard
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Anonb Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
A friend has decided to place offers for condos now. She says next summer will be the year that the market will turn in a BIG WAY. When I asked her why, she said every knows renting is throwing money away. I asked her if she knew that the benchmark is down 10 percent from the peak, and dropping, and she said that just means it is a great time to get great selection. “Opportunities like this don’t last long” she insisted.
I’m expecting big declines and am waiting, but just though I would give you some idea of what is motivating some buyers.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
I can give you some credit for your attempt to ask question instead incoherent rambling!
First of all i am not a Brother and Sister=baby Satv then two official basements are on rent that generates $200 more than monthly payment,mortgage term is down by 10 year,133 percent appreciation,I think that would be enough to earn more thumbs down for this post.
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patriotz Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Don’t worry, be happy, Victoria is really, really, different…
There is no denying the economic downturn that started a month ago has shell-shocked the world, but the question we need answered here is “How does it affect us?”
I’d suggest that it isn’t our economy that has stalled, it’s our thinking. We have become paralyzed by uncertainty
http://www.canada.com/victoria.....973935c6bc
BTW my apologies to the gold bugs for being out of date on the RRSP regulations. I think is better to own Barrick Gold rather than gold itself, just as it’s better to own an oil company rather than oil itself. Something to do with earnings.
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Informer7 Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
“First of all i am not a Brother and Sister=baby Satv then two official basements are on rent that generates $200 more than monthly payment,mortgage term is down by 10 year,133 percent appreciation,I think that would be enough to earn more thumbs down for this post.”
You are ripping off your own parents?
First you pack them into a house like cattle and then you rip them off?
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Piddlesbby Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Regarding the 2009 assessment, if there wasn’t a freeze, wouldn’t they be higher than the 2008 assessment as they would have been based on the July 2008 numbers, which was close to being the peak? Several posts have stated that taxes to be paid this year will be based on RE values during an “all time high”, however, that was last summer, not the summer of 2007 in which the assessment will be based on. Am I wrong? If so, please explain and forgive my ignorance. I’m a renter
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patriotz Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Several posts have stated that taxes to be paid this year will be based on RE values during an “all time high”
For the nth time, property taxes depend on local government spending, not assessments. An assessment freeze has no effect on property taxes.
I reiterate that I think it’s nothing more than an effort by Gordo to make people think prices are still going up, or at least not falling. Or that he’s capping property taxes. Neither of which are true.
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Keeping an Eye on the Pimps Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
“The association predicted a 7.8 per cent decline next year in the average residential sales price in B.C., compared to a 2.1 decrease across Canada.”
If the pimp association is right, wouldn’t this be the first time since the depression that there would be a national price decline?
Does anyone know?
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arit Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
$498,000 Brand New. 2 BR and a Dent Townhouse at the N. W.Quay
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....42053.html
I wonder if the dent can be fixed…
Cheers
arit
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patriotz Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
There just might have been a national decline during the early 80’s BC/Alberta bust, or the early 90’s Toronto bust, since these areas are the highest priced in the country and skew the national average. These were also times of recession so prices elsewhere would not be rising. Note that BC saw a mini bear market in 1990 at the same time Toronto was tanking, perhaps the national average was down that year.
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Van Man Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Here’s a GREAT article today from MSNBC about how a lot of home owners in the US are STILL in denial. This is what’s happening/going to happen here in the not too distant future.
Cheers.
Good point Mike!
Let’s see. It took almost 9 years for the since the last dot.com bubble to have people capitulate in the stock market and made some company shares so cheap. It didn’t get so cheap before though, because many people were in full denial then. Nortel stocks, after accounting for negative splits went from $1200 high in year 2000 to a low today of $1. When Warren Buffett said buy American stocks now, he really meant it. There are only 2 other times when he did say this.
He said it in 1973 and he said it again in 1982. In both times after the carnage had passed, he helped his Berkshire Hathaway shareholders made double digit returns.
The Vancouver RE market may take a longer time to deflate. With the introduction of TFSA and tightening of the credit market, buyers can wait without penalty. Money sitting in the TFSA account is tax free. They can wait as LONG AS THEY WANT until prices drop low enough for would be buyers to snatch good properties.
You will know when you hit rock bottom when the Vancouver Sun runs articles about how not to become a home owner and why is it so uncool.
Now the problem is, can you swallow that fear and buy a home like can you swallow your fear and buy Starbucks at $10 or General Motors at almost virtually nothing today?
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Van Man Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Several posts have stated that taxes to be paid this year will be based on RE values during an “all time high”
For the nth time, property taxes depend on local government spending, not assessments. An assessment freeze has no effect on property taxes.
I reiterate that I think it’s nothing more than an effort by Gordo to make people think prices are still going up, or at least not falling. Or that he’s capping property taxes. Neither of which are true.
But Patriotz,
The Liberal government has indicated that it will try to dump money into infrastructure building, something that the Japanese had tried doing to save the economy without success. If the government decides to forge ahead with deficit spending, wouldn’t government spending increase? And if so, wouldn’t the deficit be paid for with higher taxation in a form of asset taxes? I don’t see how and where we are going to get that extra funding
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Van Man Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
A friend has decided to place offers for condos now. She says next summer will be the year that the market will turn in a BIG WAY. When I asked her why, she said every knows renting is throwing money away. I asked her if she knew that the benchmark is down 10 percent from the peak, and dropping, and she said that just means it is a great time to get great selection. “Opportunities like this don’t last long” she insisted.
I’m expecting big declines and am waiting, but just though I would give you some idea of what is motivating some buyers.
When the knife is falling, don’t even think about trying to catch it. It hurts..
When people tried catching the down leg of Nortel or JDS Uniphase in the early 2000s, they all said the same thing.
Opportunities like this don’t last long. In fact when Garth Turner had his website then, people were saying that they bought Nortel at $75, then $55 and all the way down to $2. Negative splits later, bought this and that. Now, 8 years later, it’s virtually worthless to those who actually bought it at $75.
Unless she’s expecting a dead cat bounce in our RE (quite unlikely because of what’s happening to the US and everywhere in the world), people who buy condos now hoping to cash in on the Olympics better be sure to check out China.
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patriotz Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Next year is going to be a bloodbath for condos, because pre-sale buyers are going to default en masse and the developers are going to have to dump them. During a recession, no less. I don’t think you have to be all that smart to figure that one out.
And if so, wouldn’t the deficit be paid for with higher taxation in a form of asset taxes? I don’t see how and where we are going to get that extra funding
Of course deficits (and disguised deficits aka capital account borrowing) are going to result in higher taxes and/or reduced spending down the road. But you can’t say at this point what those taxes will be on. I do think the provincial government will try to cut funding to local governments, so they can take the blame for higher taxes instead. All tax increases are negative for RE prices of course.
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VHB Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
“I don’t think you have to be all that smart to figure that one out.”
Agreed. But let`s keep connecting the dots:
What happens to the `move up` buyers in the SFH market; those who sell their condo and use that equity to put down X hundred K on a SFH. Or at least *did*, before 2009 . . .
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Dave Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
Now the problem is, can you swallow that fear and buy a home like can you swallow your fear and buy Starbucks at $10 or General Motors at almost virtually nothing today?
The difference is that GM has a good chance of going to zero. That won’t happen with your condo.
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alexcanuck Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
The scene: A few flake of snow, drifting down to a clearing, with the mountainside rising into the gloomy sky. The bears are sitting around, waiting.
VHB says “I think I hear something” The others perk up. Nothing happens.
This repeats a few times. Then a rumble starts up and the corpse of a sheep tumbles down. The bears start to feed.
Scene fades to a formal room, perhaps in a castle.
The bears are sitting in comfy chairs.
WoW: Rejoice my friends, for the time of feast is nigh upon us. The sheep are falling to their deaths, as was and will be again.
Patriotz, looking up from his Financial Times: Earnings, you fool. Check the earnings before you taste.
Drachen:You mean the price/earnings ratio. Please try to be accurate. (The others roll their eyes and ignore him)
Pandora, (a bull): You are very very bad people, to wish ruination upon such fine and fattened sheep.
The bears, in chorus: Twas not we that drove the sheep to the high mountain meadows in the gathering autumn, nipping and chivvying at their heels. Driving them ever onwards with talk of finer and lusher meadows to graze beyond the towers with the tarps. Drove them beyond the range of the mountain goats themselves, there to abandon them as the snow started to fly. And now the sheep are doomed, indeed! And you would deny us our feast on their corpses, as you did deny the truth in our entreaties to the sheep to stay safe in the valley?
Pandora, dreamily: Yes, a beautiful sight, all those sheep, ready for the fleecing.
Snaps back to awareness: We took only the lambs and the fleece for ourselves, the sheep were fine. It’s hardly our fault the winter came, cold and cruel. Nobody could have seen this coming.
The bears, in chorus: We did!
Rob: Show me where I said the winter would never come.
Noz (A very small and mangy bear, with a crazed look): The sky is falling! The sheep are poison, don’t taste them! (Goes back to gnawing his leg off)
Alexcanuck: The sages have warned me, the winter will be long and hard this year. Be very cautious.
RJ: What are you talking about, spring is in the air already. Life is grand, I’m in love and already i can see a new flock of sheep, ready for indoctrination in a perma-growth model.
Bluskies turns to him, tears a false bear-skin from his back, revealing a bull:
Behold! The spy in our midst!
The others gasp and recoil: You! Of course! The signs were all about you, and so were many of the posts.
Lord Rennie, a pale and ethereal figure, floats about his art-filled penthouse far above the stage, his faithful lap-dog Dave following at his heel. He flies in and out of the scene in his private helicopter, never descending to the plebeian world below.
Randallbard bursts into the room: Gold, Gold, Gold!!!!
The others, bear and bull alike, turn upon him and tear him to pieces.
A peal of trumpets rend the air, and Krissh is carried in, roasted on a platter, an apple in his mouth.
Scullboy jumps up and down in excitement: Try the gravy, I did a fantastic job on the gravy! Oh, I do hope you like him well-done, I’m kinda worried about parasites, his Mums not the cleanest person in the world, I didn’t want to serve him rare.
Fade back to the clearing, now buried in deep snow. View goes all VR as POV burrows under the largest mound of snow to focus on the fattest bear ever, curled up warm, comfy and slightly smug.
My apologies should you appear herein, and like not my clumsy portrayal. Similarly, should you not be featured here, and feel slighted thereby
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patriotz Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
The difference is that GM has a good chance of going to zero. That won’t happen with your condo.
That’s right Dave, but you can’t get 95% financing to buy GM shares.
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Ulsterman Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 11:29 pm
From the Victoria Colonist article posted by Patriotz.
I love the way real estate agents show their gross personal insecurities by posting all their “achievements” after their signature. Dallas Chapple, Special to the Times Colonist Published: Sunday, November 09, 2008 signs off with this modest summary:
Dallas Chapple is an honours English graduate from the University of British Columbia who was a PhD program candidate in the sociology of mass communications at the Sorbonne in Paris. She has been a Realtor with Re/Max in Victoria for 18 years, where she has received a Platinum Award and a lifetime achievement award
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Dave, that must be the first sensible thing I’ve ever heard you say.
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stu Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 12:58 am
Hi crew, remember GM hasn’t made a decent car since the 50’s. Any Saturn should be put out to orbit. Real estate is the gift that keeps on giving.
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 2:49 am
Patriotz said: “BTW my apologies to the gold bugs for being out of date on the RRSP regulations. I think is better to own Barrick Gold rather than gold itself, just as it’s better to own an oil company rather than oil itself. Something to do with earnings.”
Thanks for the acknowledgement, Patriotz. I wasn’t advocating buying gold with that posting, I was merely pointing out that you can do pretty much with your RRSP what you can do with the TFSA.
I see that some people on this site are a bit touchy about gold.
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 3:29 am
PS: Patriotz: I’m not a gold bug, hard as that may be to believe.
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Vansanity Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 5:53 am
Remorseful bitter buyers are turning out in droves on this blog! It is a welcome sight. Good to see the herd mentality, which likely influenced your decision to buy at a high, is still in tact as you all cling to one another.
I think you all stand to be humbled by this downturn. I expect your tone to become more hostile and self-righteous as this crash gains momentum.
Makes for some great reading, thank you.
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Wondering Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 6:40 am
“The difference is that GM has a good chance of going to zero. That won’t happen with your condo.”
My investment condo/house goes down so far in price that I lose my downpayment equity and I can’t rent it out for enough to pay the mortgage and ends up costing me money every month. I also can’t sell because it’ll leave me under water. Someone’s hand in my pocket every month and possible foreclosure?..
Or just lose the money I spent on the stock?
Am I missing something?
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bill/helmut/cam Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Oh Alexcanuck what have you done.
In haste you have not honoured The Great William
Good.
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alexcanuck Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:35 am
I hereby release all rights to my story, and urge some poster to move it the Wiki and make any and all changes they see fit. Let’s see where this can go. Yes, Bill Good does deserve a mention.
I suggest only that one changeth not thy own portrayal, as ones high opinion of self may lead to that dreaded “Finger-in-the-throat” gagging motion. Leave unto others your own lines.
Someone please change me to bring this maxim true throughout.
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Dave is a tool Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Yes, it’s a great time to invest in Vancouver RE!! Here is one example of a great investment:
V724037 is currently selling for $948k. Click on the “calculate mortgage” button, and you get a total monthly payment of $7,467.
Or you can rent it for $3600.
So this great investment will only cost you $3,867/month! Sign me up!
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 9:14 am
“Remorseful bitter buyers are turning out in droves on this blog! It is a welcome sight. Good to see the herd mentality, which likely influenced your decision to buy at a high, is still in tact as you all cling to one another”
One of the fantasies they cling to is that the meltdown won’t be as bad as in the USA.
This will be another tragedy for the bulls, as our mess will be much worse; given that the bubble blew up in the US during a manufactured economic boom.
Our bubble is blowing up at the beginning of a recession if not a depression.
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 9:36 am
How bad will the slowdown be?
It looks so bad that Campbell and Harper, and others, are pushing for Government Expenditures to prop up the economy.
Folks, what we are talking about is an acknowledgement from the western leaders that Monetary Policy has been so badly abused it can no longer provide the stimulus required to jump start the economy once again.
We are going back to old fashioned Command Economies, as tried and failed in other parts of the world –Communist countries come to mind-
The avalanche of government make work projects, may just work for a little while, but as productivity erodes and deficits grow out of control, stagflation makes its spectacular comeback.
DON’T GET INTO DEBT
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Sell your condo or keep it in a collapsing market?
Jimmy Pattison had a saying ” Your first loss is your BEST loss “. Translation likely meant cut your losses ASAP to keep them at a minimum.
In the late 1970’s / early 1980’s lots of people were handing in their keys to the banks when interest rates went up to 22 % .
I guess there is a tipping point where the ” real money ” already invested in a condo is weighed against the new adjusted “real” value. I think history shows that an RE cycle is about 6-8 years. However, do we assume that such a cycle is a given ? Any More ? Perhaps people should produce charts that show you a projection of how fast you lose money investing in a cash- hungry white elephant. ie Maybe walking away from $30,000 investment now will ultimately save you $60,000+ in 2 -3 years ? That’s just basic economics/common -sense.
After watching ” Zeitgeist :Addendum ” (and thanks to those in the spirit of sharing info ie “Knowledge is Power” and posting it), perhaps we are in the midst of another tipping point, a corrupt global economic system which enslaves us all but is quickly becoming a spent force and its time for a bit of a “revolution” .
That revolution may simply be more awareness and mass avoidance of what is found to be kool – aid at the end of the line -up.
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patriotz Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:15 am
It looks so bad that Campbell and Harper, and others, are pushing for Government Expenditures to prop up the economy…
The avalanche of government make work projects, may just work for a little while, but as productivity erodes and deficits grow out of control…
Meet the new Glen Clark, same as the old Glen Clark.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:34 am
WTF are they (Gov’t leaders) going to do in a declining economy ?
Make work projects ?
—The Olympic venues are nearing completion.
—RAV line as well
—Vancouver Convention Center nearing completion
—Golden Ears bridge completion next year.
Lots of foreign workers ” taking our jobs ” on many of these.
Highway 10 expansion project finished ( finally !!! )
Much of this was a false /bogus economy to start, exacerbated by Gov’t building a lot of Public facilities and infrastructure during a supposedly economic boom period . Ultimately, we all paid top dollar for all this.
Now what’s left? More Fast Ferries?…RAV line to Hope? …. more bridges over the Fraser ?
Good luck Gordo et al
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SurreyJoe Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Vancouver Sun has an interesting article talking about Vancouver area housing starts and prices – http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....821df06cc5
Best part of the article is Jennifer Podmore’s assessment of the market:
“We haven’t seen any dramatic declines in value,” added Podmore. “Those who have to sell immediately are selling for a discount. That’s where prices are coming off. But most people are adopting a wait-and-see [attitude] and they’re getting their price.
“We’re seeing a market that’s not a buyer’s or a seller’s market.”
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greed Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:25 am
CKNW Breaking News…
American Express is now more than just a credit-card company.
It’s gotten the O-K to become a commercial bank, which will allow it to permanently access financing from the U-S Federal Reserve.
The Fed cited “emergency conditions” for approving the change.
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blueskies Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Now what’s left? More Fast Ferries?…RAV line to Hope? …. more bridges over the Fraser ?
how about a causeway to Vancouver Island?
that should soak up a few tax payer dollars
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:49 am
I also heard that Am-Ex = now at bank status
Why?
Read between the lines…people are now defaulting on their credit card payments ? Am-Ex about to go broke? Needs a qausi AIG bail-out ?
Seems logical if houses are foreclosed on, the credit of last resort is ” plastic “.
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RVW_0824 Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:50 am
#69.
Yes, it’s a great time to invest in Vancouver RE!! Here is one example of a great investment:
V724037 is currently selling for $948k. Click on the “calculate mortgage” button, and you get a total monthly payment of $7,467.
Or you can rent it for $3600.
So this great investment will only cost you $3,867/month! Sign me up!
__________________________________________________________
Don’t forget the $532/month maintenance fee and then there’s the property taxes. Make that $8,000/month + taxes or an extra $4,400 / month cost + taxes!
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patriotz Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:54 am
But most people are adopting a wait-and-see [attitude] and they’re getting their price.
Hello?
Waiting out a falling market gets you your asking price? With 20 months inventory?
What planet are you from Jennifer?
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blueskies Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:58 am
What planet are you from Jennifer?</i.
the Planer Denial from the Land of:
Naaa Naaa Naaa I can’t hear you!
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Brittanny Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
I gave notice to my property manager on the house I am renting on Nov. 30.The “owner” called me within 24 hours and offered a 22.5% rent reduction.
The house is in the Valley in a good nieghbourhood,2000 sq.ft. 2 level split.$1195/month.
Renting is making more sense now than ever.
This house was for sale in Nov/07 for 454K.
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jesse Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Man, SurreyJoe’s VancouverSun article is hilarious. According to good ol’ JPod:
- Declining investment is good because we now have “real” buyers.
- Sellers who are stiff on their price will invariably find a buyer. Eventually.
- A very small market segment has slightly higher sales than last year so it’s not all bad news.
- Squamish has the Olympics.
Peter Simpson can’t connect the dots. According to Simpson:
- Lots of starts means jobs which means low unemployment which means a bright future for housing.
Fail.
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RVW_0824 & #69 R Idiots Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Absolutely stunning 2-level waterfront & marina-view suite at Cascina
Two Levels buddy 2-Levels and do you know how much it cost to rent @ marinaside a 2 bedroom apartment will cost you around $7000 by the way where does it say rent for 3600 damn how many idiots are sitting on the blogs i thought we got only two than what about up coming dumbheads?
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Burdon of Proof Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
“The difference is that GM has a good chance of going to zero. That won’t happen with your condo.”
You condo can go beyond zero. That is what happens when your mortgage is higher than the value of the condo. It has happened to thousands of remorseful condo owners in the USA, UK, Spain, Australia and now Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary.
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VHB Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
“a 2 bedroom apartment will cost you around $7000 by the way”
Good luck with that . ..
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
SurreyJoe: Be careful when reading anything from Jennifer Podmore Russell. See previous thread for links.
In addition to the information on the links from the previous thread, it appears that Podmore’s company, MPC is ramping up
“a partnership with Can-West Interactive — the electronic publishing arm of Can-West Global”.
See page 7 of this link:
http://www.strangeloopnetworks.com/files/PDF/event/biv949.pdf
Here is a list of the assets owned by Canwest
Canadian assets
[edit] Advertising
* The Flyer Force
* Go!Local
[edit] Broadcasting
[edit] Television
[edit] Conventional
* E!
o CHBC – Kelowna, British Columbia
o CHCA – Red Deer, Alberta
o CHCH – Hamilton, Ontario
o CHEK – Victoria, British Columbia
o CJNT – Montreal, Quebec
* Global
o CFRE – Regina, Saskatchewan
o CFSK – Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
o CHAN – Vancouver, British Columbia
o CICT – Calgary, Alberta
o CIHF – Halifax, Nova Scotia
o CIII – Toronto, Ontario
o CISA – Lethbridge, Alberta
o CITV – Edmonton, Alberta
o CKMI – Quebec City, Quebec
o CKND – Winnipeg, Manitoba
[edit] Cable
*
o DejaView
o Fox Sports World Canada
o mentv – 49% and minority partner
o MovieTime
o Mystery TV – 50% and managing partner
o TVtropolis – 66.7% and managing partner
[edit] CW Media Inc.
CW Media Inc. is a partnership of Canwest Media Inc. and Goldman Sachs. Canwest Media’s share is 66.67% while Goldman Sachs owns the remainder.
* BBC Canada – 80% and managing partner
* BBC Kids – 80% and managing partner
* Discovery Health Canada – 80% and managing partner
* Fine Living Canada – 80.24% and managing partner
* Food Network Canada – 57.58% and managing partner
* Historia – 50% and minority partner
* History Television
* HGTV Canada – 80.24% and managing partner
* IFC Canada
* National Geographic Channel Canada – 80% and managing partner
* One: the Body, Mind & Spirit channel – 37.77% and minority partner
* Séries+ – 50% and minority partner
* SCREAM – 49% and minority partner
* Showcase
* Showcase Action
* Showcase Diva
* Slice
* Score Media Inc. – 25.93% and minority partner
o The Score (Score Media owns 100% of The Score)
o OUTtv (Score Media owns 8.41% of OUTtv)
o HARDtv (Score Media owns 8.41% of HARDtv)
[edit] Publishing
[edit] Newspapers
* National Post
* Calgary Herald
* Edmonton Journal
* The Gazette
* Regina Leader-Post
* Ottawa Citizen
* The StarPhoenix
* Times-Colonist
* Windsor Star
* Pacific Press Newspaper Group Inc.
o Vancouver Sun
o The Province
* The Van Net Newspaper Group
o Abbotsford/Mission Times
o Burnaby Now
o Chilliwack Times
o Coquitlam Now
o Delta Optimist
o Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows Times
o New Westminster Record
o North Shore News
o Richmond News
o Surrey Now
o Vancouver Courier
* Vancouver Island Newspaper Group Inc.
o Alberni Valley Pennyworth
o Alberni Valley Times
o Campbell River Courier Islander
o Comox Valley Echo
o Cowichan Valley Citizen
o Harbour City Star
o Nanaimo Daily News
o Oceanside Star
o Tofino-Ucluelet Westerly
* Other community newspapers
o The Kingsville Reporter
o LakeShore News
o ‘LaSalle Post
o ‘Shoreline Week
o The Tilbury Times
o Windsor Parent
[edit] Magazines
* Financial Post Business
* Living Windsor
* Swerve
* TVtimes
[edit] Online
* Canada.com
* celebrating.com
* connecting.com
* Dose.ca
* driving.ca
* remembering.ca
* working.com
* FPInfomart.ca
* in addition, Canwest owns all websites associated with all properties listed on this page either wholly or in partnership.
[edit] Software
* QuickTrac
* QuickWire
[edit] Other properties
* Canwest News Service
[edit] International assets
[edit] Advertising
* Eye Corp (Australia)
[edit] Broadcasting
[edit] Television
* Network Ten (Australia)
[edit] Radio
* Joy FM (Turkey)
* Joy Turk FM (Turkey)
* Metro FM (Turkey)
* Super FM (Turkey)
[edit] Publishing
* The New Republic (USA)
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Here is the wiki link for CanWest:
http://tinyurl.com/637opz
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
“Peter Simpson can’t connect the dots. According to Simpson:
- Lots of starts means jobs which means low unemployment which means a bright future for housing.”
Simpson may be onto something…. too bad the car industry doesn’t get it.If you build more cars, more people have jobs and more people will buy cars at ever increasing prices.
Maybe the provincial government should adopt the same business plan, and hire more workers who become taxpayers and grow the economy.
Heck if the Gov hires enough people in the “heartland” it may be just possible that a condo in Kelowna could eventually net you the same as in Manhattan, perhaps even more after the world get our calling card in 2010.
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
All the best bears and vhb please proceed to the closest match and please do not forget to take your microscope with you,3 Bdrm 3 Bathroom Condo in Vancouver Downtown
Marinaside & Davie
1.)$7,500.00 Hornby @ Beach (2 Bdrm + Den)
2.)$7,500.00 Broughton @ West Hastings – Coal Harbour (2 Bdrm + Den)
3.)$7,500.00 Alberni @ Bidwell (2 Bdrm + Den)
4.)$8,000.00 Richards @ Nelson (2 Bdrm + Den)
5.)$8,500.00 Bayhore Drive @ Denman Street (2 Bdrm + Den)
6.)$7,000.00 Marinaside @ Davie (3 Bdrm)
7.)$8,000.00 Marinaside & Davie (3 Bdrm)
PostingID: 909571079
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Blueskies said: “What planet are you from Jennifer?</i.
the Planer Denial from the Land of:
Naaa Naaa Naaa I can’t hear you!”
Jennifer is from PLANET NEPOTISM. (Her father is Pres./Ceo of Concert Properties:
http://www.concertproperties.c...../main8.htm
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VHB Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Hey #90–Did you note that #69 posted a link for a rental listing for the **exact same place** as is for sale? Here is the link again, in case you don’t know how to use the upscroll on your mouse.
Here is the for sale listing.
Go ahead and pay 8K for renting a CH condo, make some amateur landlord’s day!!
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Fiscalcomedy Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Just came back from the cenotaph to pay my respects and there, in the background, was the Woodwards building nearing completion. The juxtaposition of a monument to selfless sacrifice for the better of all, with the ultimate example of greed, deceit and stupidity in the background was sickening. The only thing that cheered me up was the idea of, maybe next year, Bob Rennie hanging in a gibbet from a ‘penthouse’ balcony whilst the 21 gun salute was redirected at him – twat!!
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scullboy Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Alexcanuck:
Love the story, especially my part in it. I think satv would have to be slow roasted. YOu can do the most amazing things with braising……
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Buyer Beware of Ozzie Jurock’s advice “How to sell your home”
“18. Take a Real Interest in the Buyer: Many of today’s potential buyers are unhappy about missing the low interest rates of early 1994. Cheer them up by offering a “buy down” on the mortgage. (For example, the actual cost to you to buy down a $100,000 mortgage by two per cent is less than $2,000.) Don’t worry about the cost. Instead, work it into the asking price. This allows your realtor to brandish a strong headline trumpeting the abode’s special (assumable on approved credit) low mortgage interest rate while costing you nothing extra.. ”
http://www2.jurock.com/article.....sp?id=8491
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
The difference is that GM has a good chance of going to zero. That won’t happen with your condo.
You’re rightDave, you’ll lose much more than your down payment on the condo.
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mk-kids Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
We live in a 2 year old gorgeous 1100 sq ft, 2 bed + den, 2 bath at SFU. Our view is STUNNING. We gave notice 2 months notice and we’ve had a total of 3 people come to see the place in 5 weeks. We’re now moving in 3 weeks, looks like we’ll be on the hook for December’s rent (last month on our lease) which totally SUCKS. Our new apartment, at Cambie & Broadway is not quite as nice but the location is fantastic and we are paying through the nose for it. I’m getting very anxious about it now, truth be told. Renting is great if you’ve been in the same place for a bunch of years but trying to find a great place with a great location at a great price has been so difficult for us the past 2 years. And our current & new landlords are horrid. Nickle & diming us to death for key deposits and parking fees, move-in/out fees. I hate what this city has become over the last 4 years.
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Vhb,
difference between those two unit is their numbers the sales listing does not confirm the cost to rent it and the rental listing does not confirm the sales price.
I have some idea to better discribe comparison between two,A 2 to 3 bedroom town house along with appartment building will cost less than the price of 1 bedroom unit in the same building based on their floor size views,directions etc,A unit on the quite side of building would be atleast $50,000 expensive than a unit facing street or ocean on the same floor.
So just looking at the similar area is not enough detail to compare them but yeah if some one like to call the sales listing agent and refer that rental unit in comparision will be able to know the difference.
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VHB Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
“difference between those two unit is their numbers”
This is like arguing with a lump of jelly.
Look at those links again. Look *very carefully* at the pictures. The pictures are exactly the same. It is the exact same unit.
Now go home–your tenant wants you to come over and unplug his toilet.
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Nobody!!!! is a tool Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
difference between those two unit is their numbers the sales listing does not confirm the cost to rent it and the rental listing does not confirm the sales price.
satv, you are such a tool!
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
“The pictures are exactly the same. It is the exact same unit.”
Where is the unit #807 on rental listing it could be possible that #69 first creat a fake listing to make his case what why are you getting mad oh ok your toilet is blocked please call Strataman for help.
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Nobody!!!! is a tool Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
You think I would fake that listing for this blog?!
Don’t believe me, call the agent. You tool.
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Piddlesbby Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
re: Nobody!!!!!
The listing for sale is the same for rent, the pictures are identical. Please look at it again.
Regarding the rents in Marinaside area, I have two friends living in there and don’t nearly pay this much, so I’m finding it hard to believe they will be rented out that much. At those rents, they should be rent to own, right??
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Dailing 604) 263-2823
Hi!
Hello! how i can help you.
Actually i need some information regarding mls no.V724037.
Oh do you know the address?
yes unit # 807 590 NICOLA ST
Hmmm this listing is belongs to Shawn Kimin and he does not work here any more.
but what about listing?
I don’t know we don’t have this listing anymore.
BDK, Nobody is an idiot as you,Nobody!!!!!
then if you write a mail in response to craigslist there is nobody to respond right away,Nobody!!!!!
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Alexcanuck: why am I not in your story?
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Pani Pani Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
It is wholly reasonable to imagine their forecasts have a best case, average case, and worst case scenario. We are probably seeing the best case scenario presented by the CREA.
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Keeping an Eye on the Pimps Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....iness/home
“A “disturbing” run-up in personal bankruptcies in September and a weaker employment outlook suggest tougher times loom, he added.”
Wasn’t conventional thought that Canadians were much more prudent than the spendthrift subprime abusing Gringos?
Guess not.
“The average value of a resale home is expected to be $297,600 next year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. Just three months ago, it was forecasting that number would reach $320,200.”
This must be the first time the Canadian Real Estate Association forecast was a bit optimistic.
“As job losses begin to mount, the cumulative increase in personal bankruptcies could be as high as 15 per cent in the coming 12 months, said Benjamin Tal,”
Oh no just say it isn’t so Benji: Et tu Brute?
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patriotz Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
That’s like the former USSR where Pravda, etc. were produced for the masses while secret publications were produced for the PTB who needed to know what was really going on.
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
I set my little story up on the wiki.
Have at it if you like.
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Vansanity Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
“…damn how many idiots are sitting on the blogs i thought we got only two than what about up coming dumbheads?”
Don’t hate us because we’re diligent.
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Strataman Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
NOBODY “ok your toilet is blocked please call Strataman for help.” Love to help you but way way to busy keeping elevators, heating systems, water going…you know what is so neat??? I can ask ANYTHING for my services and strata councils fight over who will pay me the most!! Love it! Going hunting tomorrow fly in heli-jet from Van to my favorite area…thanks so much nobody! Two weeks of bliss and laughter then going to stay at my paid of (for 20 years) place in the rainbow range. I HAD TO WORK FOR STRATA OWNERS TODAY A STAT! DAMN ONLY $4200.00 to show for it! You got a deal NOBODY!
Have fun all! (PS that’s 3 months rent and 6 hours work what a rip off right? I was thinkin I should charge at least 6 months rent for 6 hours?) NOBODY!???? Enjoy your strata fees I do!!!
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scullboy Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
“Nobody is an idiot as you,Nobody!!!!!”
Wow satV finally we can agree on something.
VHB I loved your blog. Why are you bothering to argue with a window – licker? Honestly I tried to figure him out for years.
Let’s face the facts here….. the guy’s just too stupid to participate in a rational conversation. YOu will never ever change his mind, because he’s just too stupid to understand what you’re saying.
Frankly, I don’t even think you could make a decent stew out of the guy. all the truffle oil gravy in the world isn’t gonna make that little piggie any tastier.
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Good one Strataman,
See everybody stratamans charges never go down then guess what?
Vansanity,
There is no question how much we love each other but rants creats direction so we should be careful regarding the comments we choose there should be some basic ground to proceed or else there goes the losers right?.
Love you all that’s why i am here to assist now bring your thumbs down right after this thanks.
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satv is a tool Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
“so I’m finding it hard to believe they will be rented out that much. At those rents, they should be rent to own, right?? ”
Satv doesn’t realize furnished rentals cost more. If it is being serious it’s stupidity is due to it being the child of a brother and sister
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bdk Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
downtownsuites had a loft unit at 590 Nicola that was 1050 sq ft for $1900 for September and when it didn’t rent they tried for $2100 the next month. This is under $2 a sq ft so that unit should only rent for $2,600.
The listing , which is for $3,600, states ”
DESIGNER FURNISHED 2-LEVEL WATERFRONT LOFT ”
Furnished tend to rent out for more because they actually sit empty half the time and cost a lot to furnish to the standard that they’ll command a premium rented furnished over un furnished.
I just had a laugh picturing Krrissh/nobody!
The realtor hasn’t had a sale in months and the phone rings and he hopefully answers it hoping to tell someone that you can only get rich buying real estate and then yu get krrissh!
But don’t be sad Krrissh/Nobody because you finally realize that you are in fact a nobody and want us all to know.
Go try your hand at furnished rentals you tool, lots of hookers, porn producers, drug labs and gangsters are happy to pay the premium in exchange for having no background checks (credit or reference? Oh no we just need your credit card to put down a $300 deposit)
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Dan in Calgary Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Dallas Chapple is an honours English graduate from the University of British Columbia who was a PhD program candidate in the sociology of mass communications at the Sorbonne in Paris.
Isn’t it a bit odd to include an uncompleted PhD as an achievement? It says “I tried and couldn’t do it” or “I changed my mind” or whatever. Certainly not something to be ashamed of (lots of people have bailed from grad school), but it’s not something to boast about either.
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bdk Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
1199 Marinaside Cr.,Vancouver Downtown
Monthly Rent: $1600
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Sq Footage: 715
*This one wants more than $2/sq ft and will sit another month.
Despite what a realtor might tell you it’s hard to retain a tenant for more than $2 per foot. Sure you might get one to pay $2.50 but they’ll move and you end up having to pay another fee to the property manager and have to repair everything in the it.
Personally getting $2.50 and ending up with $5,000 in damage after one international student (aka rich asians) invites all his friends to live with him and punches holes in the wall sucks and then the strata sends the fine for the noise complaints..
Hey Nobody I got connections and could set you up with some rental condos downtown that already have tenants in place at better prices than 2006, are you interested?
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bdk Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
BTW it was 1232 sq ft (#604), I made an error
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dd Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Vanman you commented “When Warren Buffett said buy American stocks now, he really meant it.”
It should be noted that his major buys recently have been preferred stocks in GS and GS totalling $8 billion, with a dividend of 10% and callable but with a 10% premium. This is an entirely different play than buying the common shares, and to be sure this deal is not available to you or I.
He also wrote (ie sold and received premiums in exchange for assuming risk) European-style puts against the S&P and other indices, which expire 2019 and later, and having a strike price equal to the index in 2006 or 2007 when they were written. Yes that’s a long time from now, but if the markets flatline or continue to decrease like they have in Japan (Nikkei 225 near 40000 in 1990 to under 9000 today), then Berkshire is a zero, as these contracts are massively in the red as marked-to-market currently. Imagine writing naked puts to receive premiums equal to 3% of your company’s market cap; how much risk have you taken on?
He also sold credit default swaps to cover high-yield debt of below-investment-grade companies. Yes, insurance of junk bonds, charges against which have already started in their Q3.
Note that writing the long-term puts and selling credit default swaps are both prime examples of the OTC derivatives he famously denounced.
Then there was his announcement on May 3/08 that “the worst of the crisis was over”. Not quite.
Finally, if we consider the P/E ratio of the S&P while realizing that the E side has just started to decline due to the start of the downturn in the real economy (rather than the crisis in the credit and equity markets), and it certainly opens up the possibility that the markets can go substantially lower from here.
Bottom line… Warren Buffet might turn out to be a mere mortal after all.
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dd Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
meant gs and ge above
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GM Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
“The difference is that GM has a good chance of going to zero. That won’t happen with your condo.”
Dave, you’re so right! There IS a huge difference between your GM stocks and your condo. With GM, you could lose your entire investment. With your condo, you could lose your entire investment, and STILL end up owing tens to hundreds of thousands to the bank. Ahhhh, the beauty of negative equity. No wonder people give you a hard time, Dave!
GM
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Alexcanuck: I put some music in your story.
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deja dosh Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Does anyone want to see some of my stupider comments on here?
I can easily repost them so you can all laugh at me.
New York and Vancouver are the same bears!
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exx Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Canadian bankruptcies seen rising
Economists at Bank of Montreal said this year-over-year surge in consumer bankruptcies marks the fastest rise since the mid-1990s.
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patriotz Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Homeowners’ new reality: You’re suddenly poorer
When Pat Webb moved to Vancouver a year ago, she didn’t think twice about buying a condo in tony Kitsilano, among the hottest neighbourhoods in the city’s booming real estate market.
But in August, the 70-year-old retiree decided to move back to the United States. She had sensed Vancouver’s market was slowing, but a neighbour’s condo had sold a week earlier, so she too tried to sell.
She listed her one-bedroom, 705-square-foot condo for the price she paid – $509,000 – on Aug. 30. Ms. Webb has since reduced that to $485,000. It still hasn’t sold.
Try 350K, Pat. And make it snappy, because by 2009 you’ll be looking at 250K. Oh BTW you’re going to lose a bundle on the CAD/USD rate fall too.
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patriotz Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
And one more thing…
“I’m disappointed, but not overly surprised,” she said. “I was right on the cusp and then [the market] changed. So timing’s everything.”
No Pat. It’s paying the right price that’s everything.
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ReductiMat Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
You guys are slow today.. I’m surprised no one has jumped on this yet:
No cash left in Vancouver’s Property Endowment Fund.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
More on Vancouver Property Endowment Fund = NO Cash
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/National
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The Van Man Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
dd said:
He also wrote (ie sold and received premiums in exchange for assuming risk) European-style puts against the S&P and other indices, which expire 2019 and later, and having a strike price equal to the index in 2006 or 2007 when they were written. Yes that’s a long time from now, but if the markets flatline or continue to decrease like they have in Japan (Nikkei 225 near 40000 in 1990 to under 9000 today), then Berkshire is a zero, as these contracts are massively in the red as marked-to-market currently. Imagine writing naked puts to receive premiums equal to 3% of your company’s market cap; how much risk have you taken on?
I say..
To me, it sounded like dd does not have ownership of Berkshire Class A shares? Perhaps Class B then? Did dd ever receive the “operating manual” when he or she invested in the Class A shares? This operating manual states “IMPLICITLY” what Berkshire and how its operation is to be executed. In the manual, he does hold the shareholders accountable for the actions of Berkshire itself.
Mr. dd, I suggest and beg you to READ the fine print of this operating manual before quoting massive information from the press. I am aware where you are getting the information from. Hopefully not from that bloak counter Amanda Lang at BTV, but of course from others as well.
I am not saying that your info is wrong either, but anybody and everybody can interpret his doings differently because they are not Warren Buffett per se. If I am wrong on this and that you do own Class A shares, then c’est la vie.. I’m also mortal too.
Having said that, Mr. Buffett isn’t god either. We are aware that he is pure mortal — he lost a ton of money when dealt into the airlines business. He made that aware in his older “operating manual”.
He also lost money when he first started investing too, just like the rest of us. Or shall I put it, to some of us who claimed they have a perfect record in investing anything (homes, stocks, gold etc.. and never lost a thing). At least, we knew he was being forthright about it..
Coming to the possibilities that Berkshire goes to zero and if the possible Japanese style stock deflation might inflict the great US of A.
The main problem with the Japan style stock market decline that was not even known in the great west was that, large investors in Japan had a “MONEY BACK GUARANTEE” from the brokerage firms when they actually lost money. You know, I wish my brokerage house would be so accommodating. Secondly, most of the Japanese stocks were insanely overvalued in their days. Take Nippon Telephone for instant. It was selling at 3000 times earnings at its highest point. That’s 3 zeros. Ever met a US company with such a high valuation? I mean, it totally exceeded then Phillip Morris, the largest US company with 30 straight years of increased earnings!! The only incident that these kind of insane valuations of companies are actually happening is not in the US, but in “China”.
Thirdly, US companies after the dot.com era and the reformation of the accounting practise have all actually been building up a great war chest. This we call it operating float, or cash reserve. The credit crunch we are facing now was the same crunch Japan had faced some decade ago. But unlike Japan, the credit crunch was influenced by poor loan management, namely the toxic subprime loans. Many of the companies that are listed on the stock exchange and that are suffering were simply innocent victims of the carnage.
You see, every business needs a line of credit to run its day to day operation — pay employees, utilities, rent and what not. Even a small business owner applies for a business loan to start his or her business. All businesses operate on terms of credit, ie 30 day term, 90 day term and what not. Businesses borrow money from the bank to pay supplier, supplier supplies products, businesses sell the products and pocket the difference in terms of the profit. Without operating float however, businesses can not buy supplies, customers can’t buy goods and see, businesses will go kaput as you are seeing now. Extreme stock prices decrease reflect this forward looking sentiment.
Granted that some businesses do have an operating float, but like homes that rely on the power grid. If BC Hydro shuts off power, homes without an equipped UPS back up battery system will simply be dark. Those who have UPS systems, depending of the VA amperage will simply operate on battery power. But eventually, these homes will go dark. Without the means to recharge the battery or replenish the float, expenses or battery drainage from using the UPS will kill the battery. That’s why, if current events continue as they will, the whole financial system will collapse. Forget Dow 9000, could be Dow 100 or to zero.
That’s why, when Warren Buffett said that the crisis is over when the government finally unveiled a bailout package with certain strings attached, he really meant it..
What he simply meant was, some confidence in the system is restored. And that someone at BC Hydro is fixing the problem and power will be back up soon. In the meantime, you need to endure some pain.
While I disagree with any bail out plan because I do not want a Japanese style “MONEY BACK GUARANTEE” policy of the early 80s, this bail out plan comes with strings attached, which is something the Japanese didn’t do then. This is not a money back guarantee per se.
Time and time again, crisis had come and gone. Remember when SARS hit Toronto and how nobody wanted to eat in the restaurant fearing they would get it. Fast forward to today and everybody seemed to have forgotten the incident.
Sometimes, the media has a way of overblowing and over-exaggerating what seemed to be innocent information, manipulated for better ratings.
I really hope you don’t fall for that..
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Z3 Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 7:06 am
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....e18fa798e0
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Phil Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 7:40 am
And Canada’s bank (CMHC) bailout is well underway!
http://tinyurl.com/5rp9a7
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blueskies Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 7:40 am
re: Van Sun story:
from the comments section:
ONWARD AND UPWARD
Wed, Nov 12, 08 at 01:51 AM
At least the Millenium development at False Creek is safe. Lots of presales and the development will sell out quick for top dollar. We are the best place on earth. Real Estate is very cheap here compared to other world class cities
the ol’ “koolaid” enema trick…..
seems to still work!
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dd Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Vanman: I’m not falling for anything (I hope). That’s why I point out things that most people would not know, hearing “Buffet says buy American stocks” and believing it or acting on it. Those points are the other side of the story to what the media presents, and were the result of reading many sources and following up with research on public documents.
May 3, following the Bear Sterns buyout, was WAY early. Public statements like that reassure the vast majority of people who don’t actively manage their investments, and many who do, which is why presentation of alternate viewpoints should make them stop and think.
Other than that, and your jibe about not being a card-carrying member of the Berkshire club (my due diligence happens before I buy and receive some vcr manual), I don’t see anything else in your post we disagree on.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 7:56 am
From Phil’s link 131.
Our beloved leaders CAD bank bailout is now tripled to 75 billion dollars! Take off a few children, poor, seniors etc I doubt we have as many as 25 million taxpayers in Canada. So that’s $3,000 EACH to bailout “the strongest banking system on the planet”?
And we’re supposed to believe these jokers when they say “don’t worry, be happy”?
Bold prediction here: Before Christmas we will an “economic stimulus plan” to put some (borrowed) dollars in our hands with a plea to be patriotzic and save it!
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Oops, don’t know what evil force took over there.
Should read “patiotic and spend it”, of course!
Patriotz, you vewy, vewy, bad person to wish economic collapse on those poor but happy consumers!
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Could also be “Patsy-otic” and use it as DP on a presale or two at 10% off!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Re Millenium:
I see that tag team of ex Vancouver Mayors Phillip Owen and Larry Campbell have parachuted in to back up the current Council. That should concern us even more when we see a “non -partisan” circling of the wagons. Seems more like a kool-aid reunion. Now they want to go on a witch hunt and find who leaked the documents to deflect attention and make it look like Vancouver Council was in the right and were the victims(?). The leaker should get a medal.
The only benefit was that perhaps Vancouver’s Property Endowment Fund (PEF)has been exposed as simply a creative accounting shell game. The PEF assets have been tabulated but very little of it has any liquidity. They claim the fund has a value of over $ 2 + Billion, but most of that is locked up for years in such things as 99 year leases. Given the RE market collapse, and if the drop is say 20 % next year, that would imply the fund could lose $500 + Million in asset value. Then what happens to the Triple AAA credit rating?
To raid the public’s piggy bank to fund what amounts to a pet project ie Olympic Village and not be upfront that they F*cked up royally is simply failed leadership that should have its day of reckoning at the polls. There is this serious disconnect by many politicians who arrogantly and ignorantly think Public Funds are their own Funds(?) to do with as they wish (?) No , Accountability is #1.
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Drachen Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Vancouver 2010?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Gary Mason’s latest story (Nov.12, 2008) on the Vancouver Olympic Village
TITLE: ” When politicians treat voters like bumpkins ”
Ghttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20081112/BCMASON12/Columnists/Columnist?author=Gary+Masonary Mason latest article re Olympic Village
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patriotz Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Given the RE market collapse, and if the drop is say 20 % next year, that would imply the fund could lose $500 + Million in asset value.
Actually it doesn’t. Since the assets are not marketable, they can only be valued by the present value of the income they return, i.e. fundamental value. They cannot be valued at the current market price of comparable properties.
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bdk Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Todays Vancouver Sun says Vancouver Condos are going to be hit hardest.
who knew?
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....e18fa798e0
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Brittanny Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
So, if 75% of the US & Canadian economy is consumer spending and most homeowners can not use their homes as a debit machines anymore, I would assume that the following industries are toast: (feel free to add to the list)
1.Jewlery
2.Starbucks (recently reporting huge declines)
3.Expensive restaurants
4.Expensive electronics (Circuit City in the toilet)
5.New cars (Ford/GM/Crysler in the toilet)
6.Ski Resorts (Intrawest in the toilet)
7.High priced tickets for sporting events
8.High end clothing stores (Most of Robsin Street)
9.Travel Industry
10.Hotel Industry
11.New furniture Industry
12.Spa Industry
13.High end hair salons
14.Any industry that does not provide products at a resonable price related to food,shelter and clothing.
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Drachen Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Brittanny
Actually you’re quite a bit off in your guesses. Strangely enough it’s the middle of the road to expensive stuff that doesn’t sell in a recession. Extremely wealthy people have enough assets to ride through economic troubles so the top end stuff will be fine. For example your #7 is, I believe incorrect. It’s not the high end tickets that won’t sell, it’s the basic seats where people will cut back.
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Brittanny Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Drac – OK,that makes sense. What industries to you think will do well? Other than the security/safe industry.
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patriotz Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
15. BC Bud
Executive summary: BC is toast. Gordo bet BC’s economic future on continued high consumer spending and perpetually rising RE prices, and has rolled snake eyes.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Christmas is just over a month away.
The Christmas season is “make or break” for a lot of businesses even in good times.
Prediction : The shit will hit the fan right after the New Year…ho ho ho? OH OH OH !!!!
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blueskies Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Metro Vancouver’s housing market will bounce back
http://tinyurl.com/5tygfh
There is no modern-era precedent to these economic conditions, so fear is a natural reaction. Remember the fear surrounding the dawn of the new millennium, 2000? What happened? Nothing.
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readon Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
He’s right, of course, RE will bounce back. The question is timeframe. 2 years, or 10?
Aside from that, it’s more the usual myths. I did like the bit where he says “experts have been so wrong about the economy”, and then follows this up by saying “experts say we won’t be affected like th US”…
It’s “pick your own expert day”, apparently.
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Phil Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
“Peter Simpson is chief executive officer for the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association.”
That says it all. Oh well, he’s probably going to be unemployed soon.
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Drachen Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Brittanny
From wikipedia, I disagree with some of them and they don’t mention luxury goods but since “luxury” is a bit vague I guess it would just be more confusing than clarifying to mention it in such a brief list. During the depression the very high end luxury stuff did very well, partly because the very wealthy wanted to ignore the droves of poor people so they hung out in exclusive clubs/stores etc.
# Medical Services / Health care
# Pharmaceuticals
# Necessities: food/grocery stores/chains
# Cosmetics
# Education
# Entertainment
# Home & vehicle repair & maintenance
# Debt collection
# Tax preparation / simplification (cf: tax avoidance)
# Career/Job search/Life coaching
# Energy
* Electric
* Oil
* Gas
# Security/Alarm services companies
# Weapons industry
# Insurance
# Funeral homes
# Air Conditioning/Heating
# Plastics
# Emergency Services (Police, Firefighter, Paramedic)
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Vansanity Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
If you look at the housing price chart adjusted for inflation, 1982 prices (last real boom and bust) were not reached again until 2006. That’s 24 years. Historically RE downturns are twice as long as their run-up in prices.
I love how they have flipped fear. Fear was one of their essential components in creating this bubble. Now that fear is against them, it’s time to ignore it. Remember the “buy now or be priced out forever” mantra?
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ted Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
“15. BC Bud
Executive summary: BC is toast. Gordo bet BC’s economic future on continued high consumer spending and perpetually rising RE prices, and has rolled snake eyes”
I was thinking the same thing. We have also had another bubble in bc no one has talking about. BC bud. I know crime goes up during recessions but i think it will be petty crime and violent crime once these marijuana pimps start feeling the squeeze they will have to start eliminating their competition.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 12th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Future headline (?)
” Empty condos or empty condo buildings rented cheap by desperate owners(banks?)and used for Grow-ops and meth labs ” ?
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Richard Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
C-mon, real estate in Vancouver is depreciatiating faster than your 2008 automoblle. I am a realtor and agree with most of these posts. Realtors and sellers in SELF DENIAL. Phantom wealth that cannot be accessed, my house is worth only WHAT? YES! Gord Campell freezing tax accessed values at their PEAK? Wake up NOW before its too late.
If you need too sell, be smart and take any realistic offer!
If you do not have to sell, it doesn’t matter. Live and let live.
Yes like today, Vancouver is an amazing place to live, but, affordibility will make it more amazing, the real estate free for all is over,think and look long term! Your home is going to be your home and not an atm machine.
Nice to see ridiculous incomes unsubstantiated,beautiful girls taking orders in pre-sale centers making stupid incomes. Where is that money coming from? GONE NOW
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Ben Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 8:52 am
These stats the CREA are sending out is a joke. They clearly have an incentive to paint a rosy picture. I guarantee they will have new downward forecasts come 2009.
Vancouver is one of the biggest real estate bubbles in North America. The average condo in BC costs 30-50% more than the average condo in Toronto, while Toronto wages are easily 30% more. Most of all despite interest rates currently still decreasing, give it 12 -18 months once the market stablizes and inflation becomes an issue again and the govt hikes rates. There will a tonne of people selling their condos as the their mortgage payments spike.
Right now the average condo in Vancouver requires a 50% downpayment in order for you to have a positive carry over 15 years. That is insane. When you get a positive carry for 30% down than its probably worth considering to buy. However, that would suggest that prices need to decrease 25-35% which I think is not out of the picture. I know a lot of people are waiting for a drop and looking to pounce on the market to get in. However, even if you are able to get in at a lower price, the market won’t run back up to its previously levels probably for 5-6 years.
Don’t get me wrong I think real estate investment in Vancouver can be very profitable, but the spike we have had in the last 5 years has been overdone. One thing that we won’t see probably for a couple of decades is a situation where interest rates are low, along with low housing prices. We had this condition in the late 90’s and early 2000’s mainly because the US govt kept rates low and Canada followed suit to continue strong economic growth and look what it led too. Luckily our banks were more conservative and weren’t dishing out $500K mortgages on zero down.