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November 10th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
$498,000 Brand New. 2 BR and a Dent Townhouse at the N. W.Quay
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....42053.html
I wonder if the dent can be fixed…
Cheers
arit
November 10th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
“The association predicted a 7.8 per cent decline next year in the average residential sales price in B.C., compared to a 2.1 decrease across Canada.”
If the pimp association is right, wouldn’t this be the first time since the depression that there would be a national price decline?
Does anyone know?
November 10th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Several posts have stated that taxes to be paid this year will be based on RE values during an “all time high”
For the nth time, property taxes depend on local government spending, not assessments. An assessment freeze has no effect on property taxes.
I reiterate that I think it’s nothing more than an effort by Gordo to make people think prices are still going up, or at least not falling. Or that he’s capping property taxes. Neither of which are true.
November 10th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Regarding the 2009 assessment, if there wasn’t a freeze, wouldn’t they be higher than the 2008 assessment as they would have been based on the July 2008 numbers, which was close to being the peak? Several posts have stated that taxes to be paid this year will be based on RE values during an “all time high”, however, that was last summer, not the summer of 2007 in which the assessment will be based on. Am I wrong? If so, please explain and forgive my ignorance. I’m a renter
November 10th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
“First of all i am not a Brother and Sister=baby Satv then two official basements are on rent that generates $200 more than monthly payment,mortgage term is down by 10 year,133 percent appreciation,I think that would be enough to earn more thumbs down for this post.”
You are ripping off your own parents?
First you pack them into a house like cattle and then you rip them off?
November 10th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Don’t worry, be happy, Victoria is really, really, different…
There is no denying the economic downturn that started a month ago has shell-shocked the world, but the question we need answered here is “How does it affect us?”
I’d suggest that it isn’t our economy that has stalled, it’s our thinking. We have become paralyzed by uncertainty
http://www.canada.com/victoria.....973935c6bc
BTW my apologies to the gold bugs for being out of date on the RRSP regulations. I think is better to own Barrick Gold rather than gold itself, just as it’s better to own an oil company rather than oil itself. Something to do with earnings.
November 10th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
I can give you some credit for your attempt to ask question instead incoherent rambling!
First of all i am not a Brother and Sister=baby Satv then two official basements are on rent that generates $200 more than monthly payment,mortgage term is down by 10 year,133 percent appreciation,I think that would be enough to earn more thumbs down for this post.
November 10th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
A friend has decided to place offers for condos now. She says next summer will be the year that the market will turn in a BIG WAY. When I asked her why, she said every knows renting is throwing money away. I asked her if she knew that the benchmark is down 10 percent from the peak, and dropping, and she said that just means it is a great time to get great selection. “Opportunities like this don’t last long” she insisted.
I’m expecting big declines and am waiting, but just though I would give you some idea of what is motivating some buyers.
November 10th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
i want to give remembrance to my balls, which i buried in my old back yard
November 10th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
#40 do you think it’s better to have family members sleep in the same bed? Isn’t that why you were born? Brother and Sister=baby Satv?
November 10th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
#30,
Is that how you do your math? wham fantastic to see thumbs up on your post because it’s more easy that way to count idiots on the blogs.
November 10th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
The father of one of my kid’s soccer team-mate is a real estate investor (apparently that’s all he does and that’s all he has done for quite some time now). He has done well by buying low and holding for yield.
Recently, he has been actively investigating investment opportunities arising from receiverships of local development projects. But he told me on the weekend that even in this ugly market he has not seen anything he would buy because the prices have not fallen enough to justify investing.
And here’s the real juicy part… wait for it… he has also just recently walked away from two down-payments he made on units in local projects where he had to admit that he had made a mistake.
As Shakespeare once penned, “Oh how sweet the smell of real-estate death.”
Sheesh, it’s gotta be a scary time to be a developer in Vancouver.
On the other hand is a great time to be a real estate bear… hibernating for just a little while longer only to climb out of the den and pick-up a bargain from the wreckage.
November 10th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Could the authors of the report be so incompetent or could they possibly be such liars?
Did Maggie write this report?
I don’t think even Rennie would put his name on this one.
November 10th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Dave will have to watch this Zeitgeit:addendum to understand what is happening here
http://video.google.com/videop.....7695921912
November 10th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Rah Rah!
November 10th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
It’s silly to cheer for a ‘bloodbath’. There is nothing enjoyable about it…
…said the perma-bull to the bear.
If you’ve been a bear these last several years and you’ve got cash (or a job) and patience there’s plenty that’s enjoyable about it, probably as enjoyable as it was for the bulls on the way up Dave. I’m enjoying the hell out of myself!
November 10th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Mike, nice article, thanks. I agree, denial will be here for years. There are some pretty silly beliefs behind it, discussed here many times.
November 10th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
This whole assessment freeze business is a scam! Why use last year’s market for this year’s taxes?
November 10th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Hey Everyone,
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27648884/
Here’s a GREAT article today from MSNBC about how a lot of home owners in the US are STILL in denial. This is what’s happening/going to happen here in the not too distant future.
Cheers.
November 10th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
City may have to order Millenium to speed up Olympic village , it has to be completed by SEPT.30 2009, but Vancouver pays for the extra costs . VANOC gets possession in NOV. 1 2009 . Now the Mexican standoff starts if the City dare push it and the City incur these costs…or trust if Millenium is able to complete by Sept. 30, 2009
Head for the hills Vancouver taxpayers !
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHoo.....CouldRise/
November 10th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
“i own a detached since 1998 value of this home has increased by 133 percent since 98 however this home is a shelter for four diffrent genration include 2 different families in the 2 official basements total number of people living in this shelter comes to 9+relitives and visitors.”
If it takes 9 relatives to pay for a house at 1998 prices does that mean a family should put 18 relatives in one house at todays prices?
Isn’t that a bit disgusting?
November 10th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Campbell’s property assessment freeze is looking more and more like a scam.
If the Provincial election is in MAY, 2009, Local Gov’ts will be establishing their MILL Rates and individual property taxes about the same time for the early JULY, 2009 deadlines .
My guess is the ” song and dance ” will be for Local Gov’ts to be on cue and say no property tax increases, given the property assessment freeze should, in theory ( and especially during these tough economic times ) translate into the same MILL rate hence the same property taxes. I don’t think the public has too much appetite for being doubly or multiply hosed ie collapse in property value, …frozen assessment, …less disposable income yet Gov’ts even dare try a tax increase?
In other words, Campbell did a pre-emptive strike to stamp out a possible election issue.
Other thing that comes to mind is the eligibility for Homeowners Grant. I’ll bet that if not for the assessment freeze, a lot of poor schmucks would have qualified via a lower assessment, given the current benchmark to qualify for the Homewoners Grant was $950,000 ( up from the previous $780,000 ), but with property prices now dropping. If they let these schmucks assessments drop, this creates a greater pool to qualify for the Grant then mill rates and/or taxes will need to be raised, correct ?
Good old Gordo !
November 10th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Zero, that’s not how municipal taxes work. Your assessed value is only relevant in relation to the assessed values of all homes in the particular municipality. Locking the assessment will only favour those whose values have dropped the most.
I don’t agree with freezing the assessment numbers. There is no reason to be afraid of market values.
It’s silly to cheer for a ‘bloodbath’. There is nothing enjoyable about it.
November 10th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Just got back and overheard someone talking to another about how BAD the banks were to let them buy a place with only 5 % down…aka said the junkie to the pusher
November 10th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
It’s only going to get worse.
Now that clueless Campbell has all but legislated that you will have to pay property taxes calculated on the all time high evaluation RE prices, who in their sane mind would buy RE when the cost of maintaining it will be based on an evaluations that may never be seen again for many years! It took nearly a decade of cheap credit to pump up these RE prices to absolutely unfathomable levels, those days are gone. At least for the next few generations. The banks are not lowering interest rates like they did before, even though the RBC looks like dropping rates to record lows. And credit it seems is going to stay tight, at the very least tighter than it has been for many decades.
Prices are going down…and so they should, and not just a little. I see no reason why Vancouver’s average price for home to be 700k. When the median income can only support a home some where in the 200-300k range, at maximum! Vancouver, and for that matter the entire GVRD’s home prices have to come down at least 50%…for the city of Vancouver, North Vancouver, West Vancouver more like 70%.
We are paying prices for absolute rubbish. You can go down to Beverly Hills in California and for the same money buy plush, beautiful homes…even before their market correction!
Further, on the argument that immigrants coming into the Vancouver will the source for the next push in prices. Take a good look who is coming here. I don’t see people with bags of money coming to Vancouver, I see African, Latin American and Asians who come into the market and work for much lower wages and doing low wage jobs. The class of immigrant coming into Vancouver, is only going to put greater pressure on prices coming down.
There is absolutely NOTHING propping up this RE market in Vancouver other than BS. Savings rate in BC is nearly -10%, inflation is high, income growth is nonexistant, tax load increasing at a reckless rate, wealth is leaving the province and being replaced with poorer people, and we have a Provincial Leadership that has much foresight as Captain Smith and his crew, on the Titanic.
And of course there is THE BIG ONE yet to come. Now that home prices are at the beginning of their collapse, we are only a little over a year away, when the baby boomers start retiring. Now that their RRSP’s have taken a MAJOR HIT, where do you think they are going to get their retirement money now? Ladies and gentlemen, you think it is bad now! Wait another 18 months! The BLOOD BATH IS GOING TO START. All those baby boomers with no money, and with there only one asset of value left…their homes. And they will all be well aware that there will be many other baby boomers in the same position. THE RACE WILL BE ON…your going to see 1,000′s of homes for sale. You may even see the average home price in Vancouver go down to below $100,000! WHO KNOWS! If your a baby boomer, are you going to chance it?
No boys and girls, this is only the beginning. The pressure on downward RE prices is going to increase and increase for many years. Thank you, baby boomers! Way to go! Be patient people, the baby boomers are going to do all the work for you, and you’ll be laughing all the way to the bank…don’t worry about getting a mortgage, with the boomers retiring, houses will be so cheap you wont need a mortgage! Only down part to this is that you may be paying property taxes for a house rated at $700,000 when it is only worth $100,000. Well, at least there are elections and we can fix that. Unlike, there is no fixing what the baby boomers are going to do to home prices…now that their RRSPs are kaput.
So, sit back and watch the blood bath folks, it’s coming. This is a time, to laugh at every one of those idiots who got into this housing market and was part of the BS.
A word of advice, don’t feel sorry for anyone of these people. Those who lose money in this collapse, deserve to do so. No mercy! Let them pay the price, they didn’t give a damn what they were doing to everyone else, when it was all in their interests.
So sit back and enjoy; the financial blood bath is on its way!
November 10th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
I think it’s only 6-8 % down.
But I only considered the BBy / east Van locals not west or rich
November 10th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Randallbard is a tool said ” We’re already down 15% from the peak…”
Do you have anything but a gut feel to back up the 15% number? While I share the sentiment, I have only seen the 9.8% decline from peak number gleaned from the October REGBV report. If there’s some numbers to back up the 15% claim, I’d love to see them.
November 10th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Here are some priceless quotes from that Peter Norman piece:
“Our (Canada’s) price environment never went up”
“We’ve never seen those strong year-on-year double digits gains we saw in some other markets”
Sure, if you don’t include: Victoria, Vancouver, Kamloops, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Saint John and Halifax!! What a Randallbard!
November 10th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
If only someone keeps stats on the accuracy of the biased annual forecasts
Some of these silly economist quotes and predictions are cataloged in the wiki. Anyone can add forecasts for the public record here:
http://vancouvercondo.info/wik.....redictions
I can’t wait to see how these all work out in the next year, so far most of their records are less than stellar.
November 10th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
We’re already down 15% from the peak, we should be -20%+ by the end of the year.
November 10th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Here’s a real piece of crap from “Independent Real Estate analyst” Peter Norman of the Altus Group played on BNN this afternoon. His assessment is pretty bullish from someone claiming to be “independent” at this point I must say – I will be writing to BNN and challenging his independent credentials.
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip111009#clip111009
November 10th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
I really think that the 7.8% number is to sway seller psychology in their favour.
- They have to “announce” that prices are dropping so that realtors(tm) can use this “official” announcement to persuade sellers to lower their prices. Without lowering prices there won’t be a sale, and therefore no commisions.
- They can’t announce a double digit drop, otherwise that would scare buyers away. By keeping a modest 7.8% drop (my goodness, what accuracy!) as the steepest decline, the number looks kinda happy. I mean 7 is lucky in European culture and 8 is lucky in Chinese culture. So 7.8% must indeed be lucky for all!
But really, 7.8% is merely a number they plucked from their collect butts. It’ll be alot lower than that. Greater Vancouver will probably be down 15% from peak at the end of this year.
November 10th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
#13 anon,
i own a detached since 1998 value of this home has increased by 133 percent since 98 however this home is a shelter for four diffrent genration include 2 different families in the 2 official basements total number of people living in this shelter comes to 9+relitives and visitors.
by the way i live in appartment,i have no plan to sell our grand family home and i can tell you nobody is losing $1000 a day, or 30,000 in a month but individual smart buyers might get some partial deals.
REBGV graph is just a type of understanding for direction not really detect the picture for perticular homes you can also see the latest graph where benchmark prices are up than last month but average prices are down by SPINNERS.
What you see a fall sometime is a fall of acceleration when buyers are unable to find a properties worth similar prices,age,and location.
November 10th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
last comment from me was joke if you guys didnt realise
November 10th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
anyone want to buy my home (sell it real cheap and will throw in the furniture and the SUV and maybe even the wife !) Jut buy my blimmin house PLEASE !!!!!!! as cant take these predicited falls anymore
November 10th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
is this for all residenial sales homes and condos combined.
are houses going to fall more than condos in percentage terms or will be about 8% for each
November 10th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Well, If those monkeys got loose with BIC Lighters and burned down the Mountains, the Ocean and Bob Rennie’s office, Vancouver real estate go DOWN like Monica Lewinsky !
Let’s keep our fingers crossed !!!
November 10th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down, prices are going down now, at almost $1000 a day for a detached home in the area REBGV covers.
If you own a detached home, you are losing almost $1000 a day, or 30,000 in a month!
Down, down, down, $30,000 down!
November 10th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
just a few months back they were predicting double digit prices for this year. I don’t think they are aware of the reality in B.C
After the olympics with all those people being laid off with no jobs, I think they might have got their figs wong wong.
November 10th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
“MONKEYS CAN NOT PUT THIS WORLD ON FIRE”.-GRAND FATHER.
I like Gregory Klump and Cameron Muir,I always appreciate their words and will countinue to do so in future because they officially have access to hard core data to pour into their visions but what about all these Predictions By
Shillers,Lynch,Muir,and Gregory Klump?
“Higher levels predict future input by matching partial sequences and projecting their expectations to the lower levels. However, when a mismatch between input and memorized/predicted sequences occurs, a more complete representation propagates upwards. This causes alternative ‘interpretations’ to be activated at higher levels, which in turn generates other predictions at lower levels.”
So that was a story i mean theory of prediction by economists,bears,and bulls As an answer was posted in response to Anonymous #6 at #234 on last thread.
Farther,i want to say if something is in a place for short term adjustment should i start juming in and out to save few bucks?then re-enter at low? in between what about that commision i will pay to realtors?,laywers fee?,opening and closing cost?,tax differences between first time buyers and second time buyers?.
When both bears and bulls have been wrong time by time same way economists are changing their prediction because of short term Market Volatility then who on the earth will figure out right timing to enter and exit?
To answer this question i start memorized what my grand father once told me before he died,he said”If Monkeys ever learned how to light a fire they can put this world on fire”That is an answer to any prediction.
What could be helpful to make decision for future or current purchase?.
Evidence those are available to make your mind to purchase are as following.
1.Past Performance of any perticular Place.
2.Social,Economical,and Political environment based on long term standing,Past performance of natural environment.
3.Threats.
Upward Trends in the past are constant rather than short term un constant Market Volatility that’s why the verdict for vancouver real estate “NEVER GO DOWN”
November 10th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
If only someone keeps stats on the accuracy of the biased annual forecasts by the Canadian Real Estate Association. They probably have a standard deviation over 50%.
November 10th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Latest on Nanaimo’s own Millenium deal.
Looks ugly, and Chicken Little’s warnings meets chicken shit ” experts” at City Hall
http://www.canada.com/nanaimod.....255b6510ab
November 10th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Sorry, my table skewed. So I list the two case separately.
Downpayment $80K, assume in the next 35 years the average interest rate is 6% and the person who spent $50K less to purchase the similar home pay the same amount every month.
For someone paid $400K, total mortgage amount $320K and monthly payment $1808.81 and the amortization 35 years so the total payment is $759,695.
For someone paid $350K for the similar home, total mortgage only $270K and monthly payment $1808.81. The amortization will be only 22 years and 8 months and the total payment will be $490,641.
The difference is $269054!!!
November 10th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
If the Pollyanas of RE think prices will drop 8%, then you know the actual figure will be multiples thereof.
I GOL’d (guffawed out loud) at Lindberg’s prediction: “housing demand will rebound…once economic growth shows signs of rebounding next year.”
What signs? What a howler!
November 10th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Just want to show everyone the total cost if someone spent $50K more to purchase his/her home.
Downpayment $80K
Purchased for: $400K Purchased for $350K
Mortgage $320K $270K
Interest Rate: 6% 6%(assumed average in future)
Monthly P&I PMT: $1808.81 $1808.81
Amortization: 35 years 22 years 8 months
Total P&I PMT: $759,695 $490,641
Total savings: $269,054
So over the life the mortgage, the one who paid $50K more has to pay 12 year and 4 month longer and $269054 more.
November 10th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
-7.8% decline? Try -20% decline!
What goes up, must come DOWN!
November 10th, 2008 at 11:43 am
I’m #4, and Randallbard is still a tool!!!!
November 10th, 2008 at 11:38 am
I’m #2!
November 10th, 2008 at 11:37 am
-7.8%. Closer, but no. -15 to -20% lower and maybe they’re on to something.
November 10th, 2008 at 11:22 am
I’m #1 (i tink)