Welcome!
VancouverPeak.com- admin replied to the forum topic Sandbox. in the group Housing Data
- admin posted an update:
- jesse and Makaya are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic Sandbox. in the group Housing Data
- jesse posted an update: CMHC starts, completions and under construction in Vancouver […]
- The Ant started the forum topic BC Population Growth in the group Housing Data
- jesse and The Ant are now friends
- jesse and wreckonomics are now friends
- wreckonomics posted an update: New Year, New HPI. ”Selection Broadens and Demand Eases to […]
- Best place on meth and admin are now friends
Wordpress theme by Abhishek Tripathi of Mediawick Digital Solutions
November 12th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Brittanny
From wikipedia, I disagree with some of them and they don’t mention luxury goods but since “luxury” is a bit vague I guess it would just be more confusing than clarifying to mention it in such a brief list. During the depression the very high end luxury stuff did very well, partly because the very wealthy wanted to ignore the droves of poor people so they hung out in exclusive clubs/stores etc.
# Medical Services / Health care
# Pharmaceuticals
# Necessities: food/grocery stores/chains
# Cosmetics
# Education
# Entertainment
# Home & vehicle repair & maintenance
# Debt collection
# Tax preparation / simplification (cf: tax avoidance)
# Career/Job search/Life coaching
# Energy
* Electric
* Oil
* Gas
# Security/Alarm services companies
# Weapons industry
# Insurance
# Funeral homes
# Air Conditioning/Heating
# Plastics
# Emergency Services (Police, Firefighter, Paramedic)
November 12th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
“Peter Simpson is chief executive officer for the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association.”
That says it all. Oh well, he’s probably going to be unemployed soon.
November 12th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
He’s right, of course, RE will bounce back. The question is timeframe. 2 years, or 10?
Aside from that, it’s more the usual myths. I did like the bit where he says “experts have been so wrong about the economy”, and then follows this up by saying “experts say we won’t be affected like th US”…
It’s “pick your own expert day”, apparently.
November 12th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Metro Vancouver’s housing market will bounce back
http://tinyurl.com/5tygfh
There is no modern-era precedent to these economic conditions, so fear is a natural reaction. Remember the fear surrounding the dawn of the new millennium, 2000? What happened? Nothing.
November 12th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Christmas is just over a month away.
The Christmas season is “make or break” for a lot of businesses even in good times.
Prediction : The shit will hit the fan right after the New Year…ho ho ho? OH OH OH !!!!
November 12th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
15. BC Bud
Executive summary: BC is toast. Gordo bet BC’s economic future on continued high consumer spending and perpetually rising RE prices, and has rolled snake eyes.
November 12th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Drac – OK,that makes sense. What industries to you think will do well? Other than the security/safe industry.
November 12th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Brittanny
Actually you’re quite a bit off in your guesses. Strangely enough it’s the middle of the road to expensive stuff that doesn’t sell in a recession. Extremely wealthy people have enough assets to ride through economic troubles so the top end stuff will be fine. For example your #7 is, I believe incorrect. It’s not the high end tickets that won’t sell, it’s the basic seats where people will cut back.
November 12th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
So, if 75% of the US & Canadian economy is consumer spending and most homeowners can not use their homes as a debit machines anymore, I would assume that the following industries are toast: (feel free to add to the list)
1.Jewlery
2.Starbucks (recently reporting huge declines)
3.Expensive restaurants
4.Expensive electronics (Circuit City in the toilet)
5.New cars (Ford/GM/Crysler in the toilet)
6.Ski Resorts (Intrawest in the toilet)
7.High priced tickets for sporting events
8.High end clothing stores (Most of Robsin Street)
9.Travel Industry
10.Hotel Industry
11.New furniture Industry
12.Spa Industry
13.High end hair salons
14.Any industry that does not provide products at a resonable price related to food,shelter and clothing.
November 12th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Todays Vancouver Sun says Vancouver Condos are going to be hit hardest.
who knew?
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....e18fa798e0
November 12th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Given the RE market collapse, and if the drop is say 20 % next year, that would imply the fund could lose $500 + Million in asset value.
Actually it doesn’t. Since the assets are not marketable, they can only be valued by the present value of the income they return, i.e. fundamental value. They cannot be valued at the current market price of comparable properties.
November 12th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Gary Mason’s latest story (Nov.12, 2008) on the Vancouver Olympic Village
TITLE: ” When politicians treat voters like bumpkins ”
Ghttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20081112/BCMASON12/Columnists/Columnist?author=Gary+Masonary Mason latest article re Olympic Village
November 12th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Vancouver 2010?
November 12th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Re Millenium:
I see that tag team of ex Vancouver Mayors Phillip Owen and Larry Campbell have parachuted in to back up the current Council. That should concern us even more when we see a “non -partisan” circling of the wagons. Seems more like a kool-aid reunion. Now they want to go on a witch hunt and find who leaked the documents to deflect attention and make it look like Vancouver Council was in the right and were the victims(?). The leaker should get a medal.
The only benefit was that perhaps Vancouver’s Property Endowment Fund (PEF)has been exposed as simply a creative accounting shell game. The PEF assets have been tabulated but very little of it has any liquidity. They claim the fund has a value of over $ 2 + Billion, but most of that is locked up for years in such things as 99 year leases. Given the RE market collapse, and if the drop is say 20 % next year, that would imply the fund could lose $500 + Million in asset value. Then what happens to the Triple AAA credit rating?
To raid the public’s piggy bank to fund what amounts to a pet project ie Olympic Village and not be upfront that they F*cked up royally is simply failed leadership that should have its day of reckoning at the polls. There is this serious disconnect by many politicians who arrogantly and ignorantly think Public Funds are their own Funds(?) to do with as they wish (?) No , Accountability is #1.
November 12th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Could also be “Patsy-otic” and use it as DP on a presale or two at 10% off!
November 12th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Oops, don’t know what evil force took over there.
Should read “patiotic and spend it”, of course!
Patriotz, you vewy, vewy, bad person to wish economic collapse on those poor but happy consumers!
November 12th, 2008 at 7:56 am
From Phil’s link 131.
Our beloved leaders CAD bank bailout is now tripled to 75 billion dollars! Take off a few children, poor, seniors etc I doubt we have as many as 25 million taxpayers in Canada. So that’s $3,000 EACH to bailout “the strongest banking system on the planet”?
And we’re supposed to believe these jokers when they say “don’t worry, be happy”?
Bold prediction here: Before Christmas we will an “economic stimulus plan” to put some (borrowed) dollars in our hands with a plea to be patriotzic and save it!
November 12th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Vanman: I’m not falling for anything (I hope). That’s why I point out things that most people would not know, hearing “Buffet says buy American stocks” and believing it or acting on it. Those points are the other side of the story to what the media presents, and were the result of reading many sources and following up with research on public documents.
May 3, following the Bear Sterns buyout, was WAY early. Public statements like that reassure the vast majority of people who don’t actively manage their investments, and many who do, which is why presentation of alternate viewpoints should make them stop and think.
Other than that, and your jibe about not being a card-carrying member of the Berkshire club (my due diligence happens before I buy and receive some vcr manual), I don’t see anything else in your post we disagree on.
November 12th, 2008 at 7:40 am
re: Van Sun story:
from the comments section:
ONWARD AND UPWARD
Wed, Nov 12, 08 at 01:51 AM
At least the Millenium development at False Creek is safe. Lots of presales and the development will sell out quick for top dollar. We are the best place on earth. Real Estate is very cheap here compared to other world class cities
the ol’ “koolaid” enema trick…..
seems to still work!
November 12th, 2008 at 7:40 am
And Canada’s bank (CMHC) bailout is well underway!
http://tinyurl.com/5rp9a7
November 12th, 2008 at 7:06 am
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....e18fa798e0
November 11th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
dd said:
He also wrote (ie sold and received premiums in exchange for assuming risk) European-style puts against the S&P and other indices, which expire 2019 and later, and having a strike price equal to the index in 2006 or 2007 when they were written. Yes that’s a long time from now, but if the markets flatline or continue to decrease like they have in Japan (Nikkei 225 near 40000 in 1990 to under 9000 today), then Berkshire is a zero, as these contracts are massively in the red as marked-to-market currently. Imagine writing naked puts to receive premiums equal to 3% of your company’s market cap; how much risk have you taken on?
I say..
To me, it sounded like dd does not have ownership of Berkshire Class A shares? Perhaps Class B then? Did dd ever receive the “operating manual” when he or she invested in the Class A shares? This operating manual states “IMPLICITLY” what Berkshire and how its operation is to be executed. In the manual, he does hold the shareholders accountable for the actions of Berkshire itself.
Mr. dd, I suggest and beg you to READ the fine print of this operating manual before quoting massive information from the press. I am aware where you are getting the information from. Hopefully not from that bloak counter Amanda Lang at BTV, but of course from others as well.
I am not saying that your info is wrong either, but anybody and everybody can interpret his doings differently because they are not Warren Buffett per se. If I am wrong on this and that you do own Class A shares, then c’est la vie.. I’m also mortal too.
Having said that, Mr. Buffett isn’t god either. We are aware that he is pure mortal — he lost a ton of money when dealt into the airlines business. He made that aware in his older “operating manual”.
He also lost money when he first started investing too, just like the rest of us. Or shall I put it, to some of us who claimed they have a perfect record in investing anything (homes, stocks, gold etc.. and never lost a thing). At least, we knew he was being forthright about it..
Coming to the possibilities that Berkshire goes to zero and if the possible Japanese style stock deflation might inflict the great US of A.
The main problem with the Japan style stock market decline that was not even known in the great west was that, large investors in Japan had a “MONEY BACK GUARANTEE” from the brokerage firms when they actually lost money. You know, I wish my brokerage house would be so accommodating. Secondly, most of the Japanese stocks were insanely overvalued in their days. Take Nippon Telephone for instant. It was selling at 3000 times earnings at its highest point. That’s 3 zeros. Ever met a US company with such a high valuation? I mean, it totally exceeded then Phillip Morris, the largest US company with 30 straight years of increased earnings!! The only incident that these kind of insane valuations of companies are actually happening is not in the US, but in “China”.
Thirdly, US companies after the dot.com era and the reformation of the accounting practise have all actually been building up a great war chest. This we call it operating float, or cash reserve. The credit crunch we are facing now was the same crunch Japan had faced some decade ago. But unlike Japan, the credit crunch was influenced by poor loan management, namely the toxic subprime loans. Many of the companies that are listed on the stock exchange and that are suffering were simply innocent victims of the carnage.
You see, every business needs a line of credit to run its day to day operation — pay employees, utilities, rent and what not. Even a small business owner applies for a business loan to start his or her business. All businesses operate on terms of credit, ie 30 day term, 90 day term and what not. Businesses borrow money from the bank to pay supplier, supplier supplies products, businesses sell the products and pocket the difference in terms of the profit. Without operating float however, businesses can not buy supplies, customers can’t buy goods and see, businesses will go kaput as you are seeing now. Extreme stock prices decrease reflect this forward looking sentiment.
Granted that some businesses do have an operating float, but like homes that rely on the power grid. If BC Hydro shuts off power, homes without an equipped UPS back up battery system will simply be dark. Those who have UPS systems, depending of the VA amperage will simply operate on battery power. But eventually, these homes will go dark. Without the means to recharge the battery or replenish the float, expenses or battery drainage from using the UPS will kill the battery. That’s why, if current events continue as they will, the whole financial system will collapse. Forget Dow 9000, could be Dow 100 or to zero.
That’s why, when Warren Buffett said that the crisis is over when the government finally unveiled a bailout package with certain strings attached, he really meant it..
What he simply meant was, some confidence in the system is restored. And that someone at BC Hydro is fixing the problem and power will be back up soon. In the meantime, you need to endure some pain.
While I disagree with any bail out plan because I do not want a Japanese style “MONEY BACK GUARANTEE” policy of the early 80s, this bail out plan comes with strings attached, which is something the Japanese didn’t do then. This is not a money back guarantee per se.
Time and time again, crisis had come and gone. Remember when SARS hit Toronto and how nobody wanted to eat in the restaurant fearing they would get it. Fast forward to today and everybody seemed to have forgotten the incident.
Sometimes, the media has a way of overblowing and over-exaggerating what seemed to be innocent information, manipulated for better ratings.
I really hope you don’t fall for that..
November 11th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
More on Vancouver Property Endowment Fund = NO Cash
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/National
November 11th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
You guys are slow today.. I’m surprised no one has jumped on this yet:
No cash left in Vancouver’s Property Endowment Fund.
November 11th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
And one more thing…
“I’m disappointed, but not overly surprised,” she said. “I was right on the cusp and then [the market] changed. So timing’s everything.”
No Pat. It’s paying the right price that’s everything.
November 11th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Homeowners’ new reality: You’re suddenly poorer
When Pat Webb moved to Vancouver a year ago, she didn’t think twice about buying a condo in tony Kitsilano, among the hottest neighbourhoods in the city’s booming real estate market.
But in August, the 70-year-old retiree decided to move back to the United States. She had sensed Vancouver’s market was slowing, but a neighbour’s condo had sold a week earlier, so she too tried to sell.
She listed her one-bedroom, 705-square-foot condo for the price she paid – $509,000 – on Aug. 30. Ms. Webb has since reduced that to $485,000. It still hasn’t sold.
Try 350K, Pat. And make it snappy, because by 2009 you’ll be looking at 250K. Oh BTW you’re going to lose a bundle on the CAD/USD rate fall too.
November 11th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Canadian bankruptcies seen rising
Economists at Bank of Montreal said this year-over-year surge in consumer bankruptcies marks the fastest rise since the mid-1990s.
November 11th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Does anyone want to see some of my stupider comments on here?
I can easily repost them so you can all laugh at me.
New York and Vancouver are the same bears!
November 11th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Alexcanuck: I put some music in your story.
November 11th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
“The difference is that GM has a good chance of going to zero. That won’t happen with your condo.”
Dave, you’re so right! There IS a huge difference between your GM stocks and your condo. With GM, you could lose your entire investment. With your condo, you could lose your entire investment, and STILL end up owing tens to hundreds of thousands to the bank. Ahhhh, the beauty of negative equity. No wonder people give you a hard time, Dave!
GM
November 11th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
meant gs and ge above
November 11th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Vanman you commented “When Warren Buffett said buy American stocks now, he really meant it.”
It should be noted that his major buys recently have been preferred stocks in GS and GS totalling $8 billion, with a dividend of 10% and callable but with a 10% premium. This is an entirely different play than buying the common shares, and to be sure this deal is not available to you or I.
He also wrote (ie sold and received premiums in exchange for assuming risk) European-style puts against the S&P and other indices, which expire 2019 and later, and having a strike price equal to the index in 2006 or 2007 when they were written. Yes that’s a long time from now, but if the markets flatline or continue to decrease like they have in Japan (Nikkei 225 near 40000 in 1990 to under 9000 today), then Berkshire is a zero, as these contracts are massively in the red as marked-to-market currently. Imagine writing naked puts to receive premiums equal to 3% of your company’s market cap; how much risk have you taken on?
He also sold credit default swaps to cover high-yield debt of below-investment-grade companies. Yes, insurance of junk bonds, charges against which have already started in their Q3.
Note that writing the long-term puts and selling credit default swaps are both prime examples of the OTC derivatives he famously denounced.
Then there was his announcement on May 3/08 that “the worst of the crisis was over”. Not quite.
Finally, if we consider the P/E ratio of the S&P while realizing that the E side has just started to decline due to the start of the downturn in the real economy (rather than the crisis in the credit and equity markets), and it certainly opens up the possibility that the markets can go substantially lower from here.
Bottom line… Warren Buffet might turn out to be a mere mortal after all.
November 11th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
BTW it was 1232 sq ft (#604), I made an error
November 11th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
1199 Marinaside Cr.,Vancouver Downtown
Monthly Rent: $1600
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Sq Footage: 715
*This one wants more than $2/sq ft and will sit another month.
Despite what a realtor might tell you it’s hard to retain a tenant for more than $2 per foot. Sure you might get one to pay $2.50 but they’ll move and you end up having to pay another fee to the property manager and have to repair everything in the it.
Personally getting $2.50 and ending up with $5,000 in damage after one international student (aka rich asians) invites all his friends to live with him and punches holes in the wall sucks and then the strata sends the fine for the noise complaints..
Hey Nobody I got connections and could set you up with some rental condos downtown that already have tenants in place at better prices than 2006, are you interested?
November 11th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Dallas Chapple is an honours English graduate from the University of British Columbia who was a PhD program candidate in the sociology of mass communications at the Sorbonne in Paris.
Isn’t it a bit odd to include an uncompleted PhD as an achievement? It says “I tried and couldn’t do it” or “I changed my mind” or whatever. Certainly not something to be ashamed of (lots of people have bailed from grad school), but it’s not something to boast about either.
November 11th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
downtownsuites had a loft unit at 590 Nicola that was 1050 sq ft for $1900 for September and when it didn’t rent they tried for $2100 the next month. This is under $2 a sq ft so that unit should only rent for $2,600.
The listing , which is for $3,600, states ”
DESIGNER FURNISHED 2-LEVEL WATERFRONT LOFT ”
Furnished tend to rent out for more because they actually sit empty half the time and cost a lot to furnish to the standard that they’ll command a premium rented furnished over un furnished.
I just had a laugh picturing Krrissh/nobody!
The realtor hasn’t had a sale in months and the phone rings and he hopefully answers it hoping to tell someone that you can only get rich buying real estate and then yu get krrissh!
But don’t be sad Krrissh/Nobody because you finally realize that you are in fact a nobody and want us all to know.
Go try your hand at furnished rentals you tool, lots of hookers, porn producers, drug labs and gangsters are happy to pay the premium in exchange for having no background checks (credit or reference? Oh no we just need your credit card to put down a $300 deposit)
November 11th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
“so I’m finding it hard to believe they will be rented out that much. At those rents, they should be rent to own, right?? ”
Satv doesn’t realize furnished rentals cost more. If it is being serious it’s stupidity is due to it being the child of a brother and sister
November 11th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Good one Strataman,
See everybody stratamans charges never go down then guess what?
Vansanity,
There is no question how much we love each other but rants creats direction so we should be careful regarding the comments we choose there should be some basic ground to proceed or else there goes the losers right?.
Love you all that’s why i am here to assist now bring your thumbs down right after this thanks.
November 11th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
“Nobody is an idiot as you,Nobody!!!!!”
Wow satV finally we can agree on something.
VHB I loved your blog. Why are you bothering to argue with a window – licker? Honestly I tried to figure him out for years.
Let’s face the facts here….. the guy’s just too stupid to participate in a rational conversation. YOu will never ever change his mind, because he’s just too stupid to understand what you’re saying.
Frankly, I don’t even think you could make a decent stew out of the guy. all the truffle oil gravy in the world isn’t gonna make that little piggie any tastier.
November 11th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
NOBODY “ok your toilet is blocked please call Strataman for help.” Love to help you but way way to busy keeping elevators, heating systems, water going…you know what is so neat??? I can ask ANYTHING for my services and strata councils fight over who will pay me the most!! Love it! Going hunting tomorrow fly in heli-jet from Van to my favorite area…thanks so much nobody! Two weeks of bliss and laughter then going to stay at my paid of (for 20 years) place in the rainbow range. I HAD TO WORK FOR STRATA OWNERS TODAY A STAT! DAMN ONLY $4200.00 to show for it! You got a deal NOBODY!
Have fun all! (PS that’s 3 months rent and 6 hours work what a rip off right? I was thinkin I should charge at least 6 months rent for 6 hours?) NOBODY!???? Enjoy your strata fees I do!!!
November 11th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
“…damn how many idiots are sitting on the blogs i thought we got only two than what about up coming dumbheads?”
Don’t hate us because we’re diligent.
November 11th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
I set my little story up on the wiki.
Have at it if you like.
November 11th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
That’s like the former USSR where Pravda, etc. were produced for the masses while secret publications were produced for the PTB who needed to know what was really going on.
November 11th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....iness/home
“A “disturbing” run-up in personal bankruptcies in September and a weaker employment outlook suggest tougher times loom, he added.”
Wasn’t conventional thought that Canadians were much more prudent than the spendthrift subprime abusing Gringos?
Guess not.
“The average value of a resale home is expected to be $297,600 next year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. Just three months ago, it was forecasting that number would reach $320,200.”
This must be the first time the Canadian Real Estate Association forecast was a bit optimistic.
“As job losses begin to mount, the cumulative increase in personal bankruptcies could be as high as 15 per cent in the coming 12 months, said Benjamin Tal,”
Oh no just say it isn’t so Benji: Et tu Brute?
November 11th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
It is wholly reasonable to imagine their forecasts have a best case, average case, and worst case scenario. We are probably seeing the best case scenario presented by the CREA.
November 11th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Alexcanuck: why am I not in your story?
November 11th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Dailing 604) 263-2823
Hi!
Hello! how i can help you.
Actually i need some information regarding mls no.V724037.
Oh do you know the address?
yes unit # 807 590 NICOLA ST
Hmmm this listing is belongs to Shawn Kimin and he does not work here any more.
but what about listing?
I don’t know we don’t have this listing anymore.
BDK, Nobody is an idiot as you,Nobody!!!!!
then if you write a mail in response to craigslist there is nobody to respond right away,Nobody!!!!!
November 11th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
re: Nobody!!!!!
The listing for sale is the same for rent, the pictures are identical. Please look at it again.
Regarding the rents in Marinaside area, I have two friends living in there and don’t nearly pay this much, so I’m finding it hard to believe they will be rented out that much. At those rents, they should be rent to own, right??
November 11th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
You think I would fake that listing for this blog?!
Don’t believe me, call the agent. You tool.
November 11th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
“The pictures are exactly the same. It is the exact same unit.”
Where is the unit #807 on rental listing it could be possible that #69 first creat a fake listing to make his case what why are you getting mad oh ok your toilet is blocked please call Strataman for help.