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November 19th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Completely OT but hey, mod me down if you don’t like it…
I did a shift at a high end cookware store today and immediately after shoo – ing out a homeless person, I ended up selling a couple of gift certificates to one of the actresses from Battlestar Galactica.
I figure it doesn’t get any more Vancouver then that!
November 19th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
#5 – I am not implying that real estate prices won’t go down. To the contrary, I think that there is room for prices to fall another 20-30%. However, for the bears who expect prices to fall 70% from current levels I think is simply unrealistic. To give a canned example, look at the Point Grey area. This area is an extremely tight market, with a lot of established home owners who have built up a lot of equity and emotional attachment to their homes over the years. Not many new homes in this area, and lots of old money. Sure, there are people in this area that will NEED to sell at any price from time to time, such as those getting divorced or terminally ill. But I would estimate that’s less than 1% of the market in any given year. Unlike the downtown condo and townhouse market, “old money” neighbourhoods such as Point Grey, University Hill, Dunbar, etc are completely built out and don’t suffer from a supply overhang. There’s certainly not going to be across-the-board 70% off firesales in these areas. Anyone waiting for that day would be delusional.
November 19th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Just so you know, 46 was not me. Yes, I like my story, but no, I didn’t copy it over again. Once is enough.
November 19th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Hi #45. (BTW, that wasn’t me.)
Yeah, when I have time I plan to do a wholesale dumpage of the golden oldies from my blog archives into the Pope’s wiki. That’s a great place for it, rather than languishing and gathering cyberdust on the old blog.
BTW, thanks for all the up arrows on #30. I really saw that Rennie quote from the magazine as emblematic of the mockery that all the bears took in the 2004-2007 period. The dripping, condescending mockery of the bulls did burn, we must admit. Well, he who laughs last . . .
November 19th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
The scene: A few flakes of snow, drifting down to a clearing, with the mountainside rising into the gloomy sky. The bears are sitting around, waiting. VHB says “I think I hear something” The others perk up. Nothing happens. This repeats a few times. Then a rumble starts up and the corpse of a sheep tumbles down. The bears start to feed. Scene fades to a formal room, perhaps in a castle.
The bears are sitting in comfy chairs with Bluesman in the corner plucking out “Bring it on home” on his guitar.
WoW: Rejoice my friends, for the time of feast is nigh upon us. The sheep are falling to their deaths, as was and will be again.
Patriotz, looking up from his Financial Times: Earnings, you fool. Check the earnings before you taste.
Drachen:You mean the price/earnings ratio. Please try to be accurate. (The others roll their eyes and ignore him)
Pandora, (a bull): You are very very bad people, to wish ruination upon such fine and fattened sheep.
The bears, in chorus: Twas not we that drove the sheep to the high mountain meadows in the gathering autumn, nipping and chivvying at their heels. Driving them ever onwards with talk of finer and lusher meadows to graze beyond the tarp-shrouded towers. Drove them beyond the range of the mountain goats themselves, there to abandon them as the snow started to fly. And now the sheep are doomed, indeed! And you would deny us our feast on their corpses, as you did deny the truth in our entreaties to the sheep to stay safe in the valley?
Pandora, dreamily: Yes, a beautiful sight, all those sheep, ready for the fleecing. Snaps back to awareness: We took only the lambs and the fleece for ourselves, the sheep were fine. It’s hardly our fault the winter came, cold and cruel. Nobody could have seen this coming.
The bears, in chorus: We did!
Rob: Show me where I said the winter would never come.
Noz (A very small and mangy bear, with a crazed look): The sheep are poisoned, don’t taste them! (Goes back to gnawing his leg off)
Alexcanuck: The sages have warned me, the winter will be long and hard this year. Be very cautious.
RJ: What are you talking about, spring is in the air already. Life is grand, I’m in love and already i can see a new flock of sheep, ready for indoctrination in a perma-growth model.
The air shimmers, as the eerie spectre of Ghostrider’s skeletal arm appears and tears a false bear-skin from RJ’s back, revealing a bull: Behold! The spy in our midst!
Blueskies gasps and recoils, pointing a finger at him: You! But of course! The signs were all about you.
Anon chirps up: And all about you also were many, many posts!
Lord Rennie, a pale and ethereal figure, floats about his art-filled penthouse far above the stage, his faithful lap-dog Dave following at his heel. He flies in and out of the scene in his private helicopter, never descending to the plebeian world below.
Randallbard bursts into the room: Gold, Gold, Gold!!!! The others, bear and bull alike, turn upon him and tear him to pieces.
A peal of trumpets rend the air, and Krissh is carried in, roasted on a platter, an apple in his mouth.
Scullboy follows, jumping up and down in his excitement: Try the gravy, I did a fantastic job on the gravy! Oh, I do hope you like him well-done, I’m kinda worried about parasites, his Mums not the cleanest person in the world, I didn’t want to serve him rare.
Fade back to the clearing, now buried in deep snow. POV follows a last leaf as it flutters down, landing beside the largest mound of snow. A hole is revealed and entered to focus on the fattest bear ever, curled up warm, comfy and slightly smug.
Bluesman strums “Amazing Grace”…
November 19th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
“As things crash 2008-201X, I think it is appropriate that they both take the blame for the seeds that they have sown.”
agreed … and I’ve been building up Pope’s wiki with hilarious Rennie quotes. found one from May where he brags Russians were buying it up. From Russia, of course, this is now the Russia that has been apparently burning through hundreds of billions of dollars of reserves to avoid another ruble implosion.
Speaking of the wiki, VHB, you should put your prediction you posted a couple of week ago, in some kind of ‘Hall of Fame’ section.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
I think will going to see 2 for 1 condos very shortly!!!
like car dealers do!!!
November 19th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Ah, Rennie. Paving a greasy trail for shills everywhere.
I have a new slogan.
Be Bold … or Move to Suburbia. Today should read more like Be Bold … or Be Smart, save your money and buy a house at 50 per cent off-peak instead of a Woodward’s ghetto rat trap you can’t even flip for a profit!
November 19th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Victoria Hill is a ghost town. ONNI is going to board up partly completed buildings but that won’t keep the squatters out. New West has seen a significant increase in homeless lately (they camp in Queens Park now).
Recently completed condos appear empty with no balcony furniture and few lights on.
A thought occurred to me. With the growing parking problems in Vic Hill, they should turn some of the cleared, unused land into parking lots. They will be needed once people actually live there.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
And so it appears the 18 billion surplus forecast, just a few months ago, for Alberta has shrunk to only a couple of billion.
Did CMHC author the forecast or the Realtor association, or Central Credit Union?, the only other people who possibly be this incompetent would have to be the VANOC crew.
But then again, are they incompetent or liars?
November 19th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
What if you own a Ford…does it become worthless for resale if Ford crashes and burns ? Yes, you can still use it…till it breaks down…but what about parts if required ? What is the market price of UNcertainty “X” .
I imagine some of that intellectual property can be bought piecemeal and then licensed out to auto shops and 3rd party manufacturers.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Hey Macchiato,
Rennie and Beasley have been quick to take the credit for what went right on downtown development between 1997 and 2007.
As things crash 2008-201X, I think it is appropriate that they both take the blame for the seeds that they have sown.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
#35 you are clearly as stupid as one can humanly be.
Presuming you are in fact Human?
Why don’t you go buy a condo right now?
November 19th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Imagine Rennie these days, a potential loss of commission on 2 developments worth hundreds of millions in sales. I am not sure the hit he takes, but i’d guess it’s in the 10′s of millions. He must be getting destroyed right now. I would imagine the prolific growth of his art collection my have to be tempered. I lot of people bought into his spiel, his credibility should also be completely shaken, but then again, the Sun still let’s Peter Simpson write complete trash in their paper, we’ll see.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
“Setting modesty aside for a moment, I’d say we score one for the blogger! I shoulda made a wager with him” . . .
Between Rennie has sold vancouver real estate worth more than 500 millions imagine if he was sitting on blogs he should have become a jobless commuter.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
#26,
Answer is written in #5 on this thread and in response to #8 by paul and #9 by patriotz on last thread.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“The price of a detached house in this upscale community fell 22 percent in October from a year earlier, helping to drag the average residential price in Canada down by 9.9 percent, the biggest decline in 26 years, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and the Canadian Real Estate Association. For Hanley, that’s meant nary a buyer for his five-bedroom home.”
The Bloomberg article should be reproduced on brass placards and copies placed in the lobby of The Vancouver Sun, CMHC, and every Real Estate Board Office, as a reminder
that Muir, Pastrick, Rennie, Tsuir are complete idiots and or liars.
Why aren’t the rich Iranians and Asians who have cash not buying these baragains?
How would the credit crunch (if there is one) affetct all those rich foreigners who have cash, after all is that not the explaination why local incomes didn’t matter?
I’m somewhat suprised the people who bought leaky condos in East Van aren’t selling their units and trading up in West Van.
This is a great time to trade up. Hurry hurry, hurry, West Van is running out of views.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
i took a walk past TV Towers today.
the construction crane on T2 was
being disassembled…..
very soon there will be completions
to contemplate for the lucky few….
ditto for W an intellectual concept
gone terribly wrong…..
November 19th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
WaMu job losses in Seattle could total thousands
These are high paying jobs for the most part. Luckily Vancouver doesn’t have any major banks. Or high paying jobs. Phew.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Just in case many of you are making big bucks flipping your Millenium condos (Remember to chant ” VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE N-E-V-E-R GO DOWN ” ! ) so you can re-invest in “green” energy.
http://www.princegeorgecitizen.....risis.html
Keep the cash under the mattress where its safe !!!.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Re #29:
“If the blogger is right . . . then 1000 people are wrong.” Bob Rennie, Vancouver Magazine, June 2006.
Setting modesty aside for a moment, I’d say we score one for the blogger! I shoulda made a wager with him . . .
November 19th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Re: Bob Rennie ( and the search party looking for him ? )
After reading Lewis’s (ie author of Liars Poker )recent article, you kind of wonder if there should be a Nuremberg Trial for the guilty parties in this Economic collapse.
Excuses like ” they had no idea what was going on” or simply “following orders” don’t cut it because many knew exactly what was going on…given these people created the vehicles that ultimately lead the charge into the economic abyss and dragged else everyone into it like a black hole .
We in BC didn’t have a Wall Street per se locally, our stock market were Real Estate, even Rennie alluded to as much. However, if he , the so called “Condo King” , can say with a straight face he didn’t foresee what happened as inevitable, and due soon,he’s a lying little SOB Mo – Fo. All one has to do is go back several weeks ago and see his so – called market expertise as basically self -serving market -pumping BS.
PS: Maybe he has bailed out of town or laying low for a good reason … as often there are disillusioned parties that have lost literally everything, who connect the dots and go “looking” .
I just wonder if Rennie will ever bounce back, but I certainly wouldn’t touch anything he ever tried to sell, for good reason , given the “emperor/king” has no clothes, if they ever did.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
*Other side Paul has no point and i don’t know where he is coming from now I know one thing for sure that is one and the only true fact that VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE GOING DOWN HARD!!!!
November 19th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Bdk,
Did you go through inquiry or posting another spam for rancho management? who knows if you work for them then pick up phone to say oh that’s gone would you like to go for next one at $1,699.00 or $2,200.00.
First find out discription like sq.ft.floor,and direction then come back if it’s available.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
#19 it appears that people have been trying to each you for years but you are either too high or it’s simply too complicated for you to understand.
Imagine if there is one person who wants to buy a condo and thinks it’s a good idea. In anticipation of this sale ten people go out and buy a unit before the first person buys one planning to sell to this person.
All ten of these people are thinking they’re going to make easy money but then the buyer sees there are ten people who bought them and starts negotiating the prices downwards.
Instead of making money all ten speculators lose money and the one buyer got a better price than buying directly frm the developer.
Did that make sense? I can try to make it even clearer if you like.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
There needs to be a footnote in Hanley’s add…
“he house boasts an unobstructed Pacific Ocean view, *sun-filled patios and an infinity swimming pool.”
Footnote: * only 2 months of the year with sun-filled patios.
What a dumb ass. Im going to call and offer him 100,000 grand to leave. As he’s hauling his shit out the door, I’ll be standing there smoking… only to ash it out on the marble under my foot.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
OT: Dow below 8,000 … look out below. Testing new lows indeed.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
** New units are now renting for $1350. What will happen to the older stock?**
“NO PETS, NO SMOKING – ONE YEAR LEASE
New Suite on the 15th floor. 1B + flex room and walk-in closet.
European appliances, parking and h/w included. Dark hdwd floor in living area and carpet in bedroom and flex room. Bathroom has soaker tub and shower. Fitness room and whirlpool. Close to sports venues, Yaletown and Robson shopping.
Posession on approval and rent starts December 1.
RANCHO MANAGEMENT”
November 19th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
View to the future re: Bankruptcies?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11.....cy.html?em
No longer life support … simply R.I.P. ?
November 19th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
I with PaulB on this one. In this declining market, the proper pricing of the property is paramount to anything else least of which the realtor’s commission.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
All forms of compensation must be disclosed in writing by the realtor to his clients, including commission, bonuses, gifts, everything, before an offer is written.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
#18,
you should atleast teach us economy,real estate,demand and supply do not shoot your arrow in dark your comment is dumb as you are such an asshole without any basic knowledge so teach us or fuck off.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Hey #9
If you can look at a graph and read interest rates why is it that you cannot understand that prices are way out of line with fundamentals and will have to correct by 50% in order to qualify as an investment (as opposed to speculation).
You managed to quote M2 but don’t understand supply and demand? Or negative investor sentiment?
It’s hard to believe you are as stupid as you act, don’t you get bored of acting like the stupidest person in Vancouver every single day?
November 19th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Offtopic, but still amazing:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11.....tzwKye%20A
November 19th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
“Pretty soon, we’re going to rival Phoenix in the US. So move over Phoenix, here comes Vancouver!”
Just goes to show how world-class Vancouver is – we’ll be competing with the big boys for disastrous price declines as well.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Hot off the presses !
How to still make money on your exisitng real estate?
Lease out your back yard as a DUMP SITE ! Beat the rush !Then lease out your front yard ! ( The hell with curb appeal, dammit !)
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHoo.....lingCrash/
This is why Vancouver Real Estate NEVER go down !!! (if you are flexible !)
November 19th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
13-
Indeed, the silence from Rennie sure is deafening. I definitely expected him to be trumpeting this tremendous “opportunity” to get in before the next leg up begins. Even he likely has come to the realization that his boilerplate Vancouver cheerleading has been undressed and simply doesn’t work any longer as the masses slowly awaken to the ugly fundamentals that were slumbering next to them all along.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
It looks like Vancouver’s housing slump is starting to get attention from outside Canada.
Where’s Bob Rennie to tell us how bullish this article is as it will alert all the rich Wall St. bankers to our attractively priced McMansions and our killer RE fundamentals?
November 19th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
RE: Big 3 Automakers (ie Ford, GM, Chrysler):
The next domino to watch?
A few months many of them apparently had $ Billions in reserve to help weather a storm.
However, they are burning their cash reserves at such an ever increasing rate and the slump has been more prolonged than they had ever wildly imagined. I read that there decline in sales is about 7 % more than they had anticipated, but that 7 % decline creates a negative fiscal quantum leap they simply cannot adjust for.
What makes this intersting is that the BIG 3 are asking for approx. $25 Billion to keep them afloat. Given the hundreds of thousands of jobs at stake both directly and indirectly, the US Gov’t still seems hesitant at any bailout . From what is being reported, it seems that the Gov”t actually feels it may be best for the auto companies to go into bankruptcy and then rise from the ashes like a Phoenix.
However, unlike the housing market, where the house (asset) still exists, and simply a matter of what the value is during any/all transactions, now people are left wondering what happens if these Big 3 auto makers start to go broke?
What if you own a Ford…does it become worthless for resale if Ford crashes and burns ? Yes, you can still use it…till it breaks down…but what about parts if required ? What is the market price of UNcertainty “X” .
How about if you want to buy a car ?…stay on the sidelines and NOT buy till one feels more assured the given auto manufacturer is solvent ?
Maybe much of the western countries will be like Cuba….(autos etc. from the 1950′s they have managed to keep running with wire and tape etc ? )
November 19th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Yeah, Vancouver will be different for sure. Vancouver is going to lead Canada as the biggest Canadian real estate meltdown during this economic crisis.
Pretty soon, we’re going to rival Phoenix in the US. So move over Phoenix, here comes Vancouver!
November 19th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
I don’t see Dosh here anymore? you know the guy that swore Canada was different and Vancouver especially different. Well he’s right! We will be FAR FAR worse off then any of the crashing American cities. So vote! Dosh you are right we are different!
November 19th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
missing link for above post can be found here
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/.....erates.pdf
November 19th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
From the Bloomberg article:
“Canada’s housing market seems to be tracking the U.S. with a two-year lag,” said David Wolf, a Toronto-based economist with Merrill Lynch & Co.
In Hanley’s West Vancouver, 565 detached homes were on the market last month, 88 percent more than a year earlier, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
Sales fell to 19 from 51 a year earlier. The price of a benchmark, or typical, detached house in West Vancouver declined to C$1.14 million from C$1.46 million a year earlier, said Craig Munn, a spokesman for the board.
Though Hanley says his offer of a C$100,000 bonus has increased awareness of his home, he’s starting to think it may be easier to rent the place.
“The only other option is to reduce my asking price by C$600,000 to C$700,000 to where I’d be virtually giving the place away,” Hanley said. “I’m not about to do that.”
Perhaps Mr. Hanley should be reminded why Wal Mart is so succesful.
You can get Poor catering to the Rich … and get Rich catering to the Poor.
This Canadian delusion of being insular to the world on so many fronts needs to be turfed ASAP.
Re West Van:
I remember a tradesmen telling me they made good coin in West Van, buying houses, fixing them up (often just cosmetically), and then flipping them. Assuming that it was a well off area, I asked him how it was possible. He said that West Van is full of nouveau riche’ overnite millionaires who can just as quickly lose their ” Keeping up with the Joneses ” status and have to sell ASAP.
Maybe now the floodgates will really open in West Van ? ( Maybe go to the West Van Police Pub Nite 24/7 at the WVPD station and drown one’s sorrows ? )
November 19th, 2008 at 11:59 am
The RE bust in Vancouver is not a “consequence of the subprime crisis”, it’s a consequence of prices being too damned high.
As was the subprime crisis itself.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:55 am
“It’s been a little bit surprising the consequences of the subprime crisis have been so far-reaching,” said Hanley
Haw haw
November 19th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down Says:
November 19th, 2008 at 11:17 am
“West Vancouver builder Sean Hanley”
*Builders are not like home owners interest rates that apply to home owners are different than builder,Builders interest rates are very similar to credit card so $100,000 or $200,000 bonus is still a profitable for Hanley type of builder as he is being rat on bloomberg let him scream for exit but home owners no need to scream as rents are higher and interest rates are low http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/…..erates.pdf
“For Hanley, that’s meant nary a buyer for his five-bedroom home.”
*Scream Hanley Scream greedy builders you should have measure the size of population and supply of other projects.
“At the same time investors stop buying. Prices are set by the few participants willing to buy. NOT the sellers.”
*Patriotz,There is a technical error in what you saying i mean to say you are not different than what paul is saying,when satisfaction for sellers does not meet than buyers reconsider the merging sense so you and him are moving around each other.
“Your continuing suggestive rhetoric tires me. It serves no purpose other than to taint my reputation. Will, be clear in noting that I am strongly recommending to you that you cease your disparaging personal attacks.”
*Larry you deserve some rants for poping out too early WILL’s point is if you know the insight you should wait atleast a month to report something however What makes you to pop out to report 10 days while real estate count month over month and year over year?Are you trying to scare the sellers or telling the buyers not to jump in?Check your age and your attempt does not match with your outcome.
*Other side Paul has a good point and i know where he is coming from now he know one thing for sure that is one and the only true fact that VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN
November 19th, 2008 at 11:45 am
I’m a bit suprised that it’s acceptable to openly pay the buyers agent to represent the sellers interest.
The “buyer’s agent” is always openly paid to represent the seller’s interest, because he’s paid a sales commission just like the seller’s agent.
Not too hard to figure out is it?
November 19th, 2008 at 11:37 am
I think it’s a silly technique. 19 detached homes sold in West Van last month. Do Realtors need any additional incentive to show a motivated client a home that already offers a commission of 50k??? Anyone with a serious buyer would be showing them anything and everything, praying for a deal in this market.
I guess the other angle would be if a buyer was out looking at 5 or so different homes then the agent (who was in the know about the commission bonus) would then lead the client in the direction of the home with the bonus. That shows a real lack of belief in the integrity of your fellow realtors. Now integrity aside Realtors have to disclose what we get paid as a buyer’s agent. It may be an awkward conversation to have with the buyer “oh ya buy the way the house I insisted you buy also offers me an additional 100k in commission…sign here”
November 19th, 2008 at 11:37 am
… his asking price C$3.99 million …
“The only other option is to reduce my asking price by C$600,000 to C$700,000 to where I’d be virtually giving the place away,” Hanley said. “I’m not about to do that.”
yeah, giving at away, for 3.3 million dollars, lol.
I don’t doubt the place is grand, but denial pervades.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Hey:
I am number 1…… I tink