Friday Free-for-all!
Friday is here once again, lets do our end of the week news and link round up. Here’s a few to get the conversation started:
-Vancouver Condo Wiki – supply updates!
-In unstable economy, renovate (don’t buy)
-Vancouver RE boom is over, more declines ahead.
-Vancouver guarantees $100 million for Olympic Village
-When should you start marketing your 2010 rental?
-City gives up 4.3 million in development fees
-Nanaimo hotel becomes election issue
-RRSP participation rates low
-Toronto real estate falls below 2006 levels
-Canadian building permits rise in September
-London Olympic village needs £1 billion bail out.
-Real Estate Downfall (youtube)
So what are you seeing out there? Post your thoughts, news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Thanks!
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Anon Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Hello, I am #1
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VancouverGuy Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
I posted updated figures from April all the way through to now of how the HPI for each of the specific regions has performed.
Things look absolutely horrific. The annualized price drops are just absolutely shocking. And people are in denial about this… I heard people today talking about how our economy will remain strong. What is going to drive the economy? Infrastructure spending? Only if we need really need it, and even then it won’t add a ton of jobs. Our forestry industry? Of course not. Residential and commercial construction? Not a chance. Increased trade? No way.
What’s going to actually drive our economy now?
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VancouverGuy Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
By the way, how did that Vancouver RE Boom is over post define price declines? My stats indicate a 33.4% decline in PoMo… there seems to be something slightly fishy about those numbers.
Can anyone else actually find the October stats package online? Seems to be much harder to find than usual. I found it yesterday and now that site is gone. But I have a copy saved on my HD for record…
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Anonymous Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
People will be in denial for a long time. Denial is self-reinforcing…
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jesse Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 11:46 pm
“What’s going to actually drive our economy now?”
It may sound corny, but you and I drive the economy by being more productive and innovating.
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Anonymous Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 11:48 pm
By the way, regarding denial- people get scared very quickly about economy, job security, etc, but somehow denial blocks any fear when it comes to real estate. Any ideas why?
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patriotz Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:27 am
Well actually people are justified in having less fear about RE. If you already own a house and can afford the payments, it really doesn’t matter what happens to the market price going forward. As long as you weren’t planning on selling at an expected price in the future (which would make you a speculator). But it matters a whole lot if you lose your job.
It’s the speculators, of course, who have plenty to fear from an RE price decline. They are the ones who have actually bet their economic well-being on RE prices. As well prospective buyers get scared away when prices start falling.
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Gadwin Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 1:37 am
Attention Kmart shoppers! We have a blue light special on aisle 10. All shoebox condos on aisle 10 have been discounted 30%.
Don’t forget that next week, we will have a 40% liquidation sale on all townhouses on aisle 4.
Thank you for shopping at Kmart!
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MickeyFinn Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:51 am
On top of all the other problems that the Vancouver real estate market is experiencing as a result of the economy, there is also the issue of the tidal wave of completions heading our way over the next couple of years.
That’s the first part of the total-collapse-story…
The second part of the story is the amount of Vancouver condo units (and SFH’s) that are owned by non-resident investors. Some of those non-resident speculators will need to dump their Vancouver investments to cover investment losses elsewhere… it’s a given… and when they do dump them, they will sell them for whatever price they will bear in a quick sale.
Oh baby, it’s gonna be a messy market as it comes crashing down. I can’t hardly wait.
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patriotz Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 4:57 am
Some of those non-resident speculators will need to dump their Vancouver investments to cover investment losses elsewhere…
This applies to resident speculators just as much as non-residents really. They’re just as likely to be exposed to investment or income losses. If Joe the Plumber gets his work hours cut due to a building slump, that cash flow negative condo is going to have to go.
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house mouse Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:26 am
Oh rats, does this mean my Camembert supply will dry up?
I really hate cheeze whiz..
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Keeping an Eye on The PImps Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:39 am
“Some of those non-resident speculators will need to dump their Vancouver investments to cover investment losses elsewhere… ”
That may be true, but how many non-resident speculators are there?
NOT MANY
The international investor myth may have slightly more substance than Ogopogo, but not much more.
The RE whores and pimps make vague reference to the illusive international specuvestors, but they never give out hard numbers to support the claim.
The non resident speculator is a lie perpetuated by every local real estate board in North America.
Remember these rich off shore investors were supposed to have deep pockets who pay cash,so they aren’t affected by the credit crunch.
So where have they all gone?
Don’t they know we are running out of land?
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patriotz Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:04 am
I can add that US speculators, who have had some impact in the Whistler and Victoria markets, mostly got out last year.
A combination of the high CAD which gave them a golden opportunity to cash out and resistance to the “best place on earth” BC koolaid. They know the jig was up back home and knew it would soon be up here.
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blueskies Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:59 am
The rise and fall of the Vancouver high-rise
http://tinyurl.com/6ag93n
For speculative investors, however, the drop in prices is lethal.
to add to the drumbeat……
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Vansanity Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 8:29 am
$1.6B towers being planned for Surrey over next 10-15 years around King George Skytrain station including a 70-storey tower…Tony Danza, I know you like the sound of more glut, you’ll like this save for the timing.
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....496be6e721
Jobs numbers out today,here’s some articles on it:
BC loses 8,300 jobs in October, Canada adds 9,500 and defies expectations. Unemployment rate at 6.2% in Canada.
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....f1620cbb9b
From the article above: “Also Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said the country lost 240,000 jobs in October – far greater than expected – and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.5 per cent from 6.1 per cent the previous month. That’s the highest rate since March 1994.”
US has 1.2M now unemployed. The job losses are starting to mount, while gaining momentum. A sure sign of a recession. Ford announced Q3 loss today of $129M and said they will be cutting North American workforce by 10%.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/0.....2008110709
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 9:32 am
According to her calculations, it will take about 17 months for the market to absorb the high-rise condo units under construction. That is close to double the nine-month equivalent figure from this time last year. More to the point, however, the 17-month time frame roughly coincides with the time it will take to actually build those high-rises. If Ms. Podmore Russell is correct, the industry will have avoided overshooting the market and creating a destabilizing glut.
Holy #### 17 months is a lot! Isn’t a balanced market 6 months?
She also ignores the fact that there’s already 15 months of inventory out there, so wouldn’t that make her prediction 32 months?
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blueskies Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 9:39 am
please note “Ms. Podmore Russell” is of the
Concert Properties Podmores(top management)
so there is some bias in the “don’t worry be happy” scenario…..
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:09 am
The Surrey proposal is intriguing.
What is the BIG Picture?
If one connects the dots, it appears Surrey has a master plan to create a downtown core which also involves the possible moving of Surrey City Hall to the same area.
Perhaps they are using this as a means to gentrify the area and displace the less attractive elements and facets.
Of course, they will try and use the same old pablum -mantra of building hi -density adjacent to SkyTrain. I think Surrey is rather misguided, unless the aim is to force drug dealers to ” go – green ” and use SkyTrain instead of armour – plated Hummers. I think Surrey’s zeal to build hi-rises simply exacerbates the problem…it is more political than practical, hence another inevitable mess in the making.
If and when the Evergreen line gets going , the same formula for failure will be set in motion.
SkyTrain has a limit to its capacity and perceived efficiency, it could end up as gridlocked as a highway, but SkyTrain has far less options to remedy. This will then start to have a bearing on the hi -rise condo market.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Let’s try to define or re-define the term ” speculators”.
In my view, if you own any residential property and do NOT live in it, that is “speculation”…it is surplus to your basic needs. You may call it an ” investment “(short term or long term ), “future retirement home “, hedge against inflation, whatever .
There is nothing wrong with that, it is “legal” and perhaps a prudent decision for the given “speculator” .
However, if you relied on this speculation investment for your overall portfolio….in all likelihood you are seeing a lot of red ink.
Living close to a City Center littered with Hi – Rises, (and with daylight savings just having kicked in, the number of dark/UN-lit hi rise units is enormous) . My guess is the average is 8 UNlit condos – for 1 condo unit with Lights on. I was in False Creek /Yaletown area twice in one week recently…same thing.
It’s not just a matter of oversupply, but ” once bitten twice shy” may kick in aka consumer confidence. If someone came up to me with a desperate look and offered me a condo at 50 % off , I’d say thanks but no thanks… who wants to buy during free-fall with an unknown bottom ? (I am not even talking about the crap that is built full of deficiences that is often the norm in boom times, of which I am sure we will see soon, but that’s another story ).
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Dave Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:31 am
RE- Surrey Towers: Dreaming to build and able to build are two very different things. Berezan is involved in commercial real estate, but have they ever done a residential development? I haven’t heard of one, never mind a multi-year high density mixed use tower development. Good luck securing the capital.
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Dave Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:34 am
NO-LYMPICS, the SkyTrain still has a lot of capacity available to it, even during rush hour.
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bcubbins Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:45 am
From the Globe story posted by blueskies…
“Speculators have entirely left the market,” says Jennifer Podmore Russell
Not true at all. There are still many speculators left in the market. They’ve just moved from the buy side to the sell side. Like this Flagship flipper for instance, now facing a $100k loss…
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....32046.html
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:51 am
I think the posters on this site are morons and or simply never owned property in their life and probably never will. The fact is coal harbour, false creek north water front locations are not going to be affected. Most people who own are affluent and there is non of this bs 5 percent down garbage. Most have atleast put down 25% and have a 1500 loan and if they sell they will not take a low ball price. I know hundreds of people in False Creek north who own and have purchased 1 bed or even 2 beds for 400 to 1 million. most of the people i know have 25% debt on the place if that. To you wishfull renters hoping to sabatoge the market and get a deal in the future to you i say …..(middle finger) have a nice day. and you pansys are bitching about paying 160 bucks so our olympic village can be completed and a huge developer who has poured 100s of millions of his own money in to the economy and litterally employes and has paid for tens of thousands of people’s living and family costs and you are bitching about 160 bucks per person…I think i need a barff bag…excuse me while i throw up people in false creek spend $160 in a day at urban fair for a pack of gum and some groceries for 2 days.
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observer Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:52 am
100M dollar loan is a lot of money to keep secret about, secured or not secured (how is it secured?). Although it isn’t quite as excessive as some of the methods used to produce the Beijing Olympics, I don’t think we can’t be entirely proud and say this is squeaky clean. It smells, and in an open democracy, things shouldn’t smell this bad.
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am
“litterally employes ”
1.ignorant
2.illiterate fool
Probably works at Canadian Tire and has six assignments
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bcubbins Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am
The fact is coal harbour, false creek north water front locations are not going to be affected
Hey Anonymous, did you see the link I posted?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....32046.html
Waterfront bought for $798,000 two years ago, now going for 13% off (or best offer).
p.s. I own property, but that does not alter my views of the current real estate market.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Dave:
I agree re: Berezan and their so-called expertise. Local Gov’ts love condo’s much quicker cash flow for all parties concerned. …commercial is more a long term, less demand.
Berezan is perhaps simply promoting…trolling the market. If he is planning on building a 70 storey building, that’s a BC record is it not? …..are they trying to create a Manhattan ?.
However, SkyTrain still has limited capacity, all things do , and eventually a tipping point occurs where even their own ridership pursues other options. It is a transit system most of the world has refused to purchase, it’s purchase for B.C. was mostly political, it has been pimped as a pork barrel project by various Gov’ts,… Developers piggybacked and rode the SkyTrain “gravy train” via OCP pimping, ….’nuff said.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Hey Anonymous:
We are not talking about being myopic and focussing on niche’s. We are talking about the overall condo market.
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Potato Hat Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Apologies for the long post, thought you guys might be interested in this. My girlfriend is in UBC Law, and attended a seminar/conference for RE law students on the real estate market hosted by CMHC and the Bank of Montreal yesterday.
Evidently the guy from the CMHC was predicting a 10% fall in prices for Vancouver in 2009. He identified the various reasons prices go up and down (population, rising incomes, etc…) and observed that the primary reason prices were dropping now is because they simply got too high.
He wouldn’t speculate when a bottom would occur. He pointed out that the past two slumps (1981 and the 90’s) both had different slopes and trends on the graph, and observed that predicting a bottom based on past trends wasn’t possible.
He also observed the somewhat surprising trend that prices were dropping faster in West Vancouver and the westside, instead of the suburbs, which is the reverse of the trend seen in California, Florida, etc…
When pressed further about the more general question “when would be a good time to buy” he said that he was a renter himself, and he certainly wasn’t buying any time soon.
Very interesting tidbit from the guy from BMO. Apparently they are demanding 35-40% down payments now, even for people with acceptable income and good credit. No-one in the group asked for a further explanation of this, whether it was a simple tightening of lending capital, or more an attempt to rachet up the quality of mortgages on their books.
All in all, it sounded like the CMHC guy was quite frank and open about the current state of the market, and quite knowledgable about the characteristics of the bubble in the states. I would have liked the chance to bounce a couple questions off him.
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blueskies Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:21 am
360 craigslist “for rent” ads today
as of 10:20 AM
“pent up supply” anybody?
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Gadwin Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:26 am
BC had the highest number of layoffs in Canada last month, at 8300:
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....f1620cbb9b
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john Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:29 am
I’ve got some anecdotal evidence that confounds the view of most bears around here. A good friend of mine knows a rich asian who’s brother bought a lambourgini yesterday. He also got a condo so he could have a place to park it downtown.
Another friend bought two suvs and a boat after he SOLD his condo at a PROFIT to a rich asian. It’s the Obama factor at work here folks. As soon as you have hope you get spare change.
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watchingwestend Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:29 am
I have been watching the West End market for 3.5 years now and there was/is a lot of overpriced “junk” out there.
Way way way overpriced and nice to see reality kick in and a good 20-30% drop in coming months.
No Canada, you are not immune to the global economic crisis.
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scullboy Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Sincere apologies since I just posted this on yesterday’s thread, but I wanted to be absolutely certain Krrish / Browntown/SatV/Time/Nobody reads it, since I have finally figured out how he’s been so useful to the rest of us:
Ah krrrrrish/nobody/brownstreak…..
Why aren’t I surprised that you are part of a union. It makes perfect sense, really. I imagine you bitterly resent paying union dues, don’t you? Yet the union is the only thing standing between you and Wal-mart type wages.
OF COURSE you’re in a union! I mean who on God’s earth would hire you? Your English is appalling. I know preschoolers who can write better then you can. I think most people here would agree that you couldn’t possibly hold down a white collar job for longer then.. 15 minutes tops.
And of course you dream of “capitalism” and being the next Donald Trump. Of course you’re a cheerleader for “the free market”. Your betters filled your head with silly notions of getting rich; they appealed to your greed and knew your stupidity would blind you. They knew how easy it would be to brainwash you, so they bought a little advertising time on the radio and put up some billboards. They knew you’re far too stupid, venal and greedy to question the possibility of getting rich not through brains and work, but through laziness and greed.
And now they have your hard work, and your money. They sold you a shitty box in Tranny Towers at a wildly inflated price. That means they control you now. You don’t have to resources to educate yourself or to go out and change your career or start your own business. You’re going to be working in that warehouse for the rest of your life…. for whatever shitty wage they can push on you.
Your family will rarely see you, as you’ll have to work double shifts to make ends meet. Your wages won’t go to them.
Those will go to:
- The condo developer, for that shitty little box they sold you
- Bob Rennie, for figuring out how to sucker you through your own greed and stupidity
- the City of Vancouver , for convincing you that you live in “The Best Place on Earth”
- The mortgage broker, for arranging the abolute highest payments you can possibly make without literally starving you to death.
God, I see it all so clearly now and it makes me laugh. You poor sucker, you dumbest of fucks. You and how many other blue – collar chumps have willingly …. EAGERLY and literally sold your working lives to your economic betters because you naively thought they were on your side. Meanwhile you bitterly resent the unions who, while imperfect, are the only ones who ever bothered to look out for you.
I want to thank you dude, and I mean that sincerely at this moment. I’ve had a tough go of it recently but thanks to you, I’m reminded of the one gift nobody can take from me: My intelligence. I was smart enough not to get caught up in foolish and greedy dreams of unearned wealth.
Thanks to my intelligence I saved as much money as I could, and invested it conservatively. That left me with the resources I needed to change careers when my own industry began to collapse and last night after months of puzzling it out, I came up with a business model that will work, is flexible, can be started with almost no capital and has an excellent change of succeeding.
Thank you Krrish / Nobody. I believe you have fulfilled your life’s one great purpose: You have served as a warning to others.
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Dave Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:41 am
I agree. I think Berezan is just trolling the waters or he is assisting Surrey in playing regional politics. Surrey and Vancouver have always been at odds with development and transportation. Doug McCallum used to say to Vancouver that Surrey would surpass their population and hence be more relevant to decision making in the region. Larry Campbell would respond by saying for every new subdivision in Surrey, he would put up a new high rise tower in downtown. And then consider all the recent politics with transportation and bridges and you can see why Surrey might be playing politics here.
Yes, I think 70 stories would be a record.
I remember somebody telling me the SkyTrain could double capacity easily with the current technology. That’s still a lot of population growth available.
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exx Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Seeing as how Pope put my last one up on last Friday’s post, I suppose I should start posting the updates here
This is my latest Price Reduced Sales to Assessment Comparison. Interestingly, compared to benchmark drops these have come very close. September benchmark -1.6%, AS/SP -1.9%. October benchmark -4.4%, AS/SP -4.6%. Coincidence? Maybe. Guess we’ll see how this month compares.
Keep in mind that the only sales I’m keeping track of are those that have been previously reduced, and even then I’m sure I don’t manage to capture all of them – but I try to get at least 15 for any given day.
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exxloo Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:57 am
exx, you did not mention in which country or city of the world?
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Scullboy2 Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Oye original author of that union was bdk at #47 on previous thread.
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patriotz Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Let’s try to define or re-define the term ” speculators”.
In my view, if you own any residential property and do NOT live in it, that is “speculation”
That’s wrong.
Speculation means buying an asset because you are expecting a capital gain (note the common root of the word). If you are buying an asset for the income yielded, you are not a speculator. What that means in RE terms is positive cash flow.
Cash flow positive investors, like all true investors, perform a useful service by providing capital and taking on risk from renters, who in return pay more than the cost of capital. They also keep people in the construction business employed when demand from owner-occupiers drops.
Anyone who buys RE expecting to sell it for more than they paid for it is a speculator. And yes, that includes owner-occupiers.
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beta Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
The fact is coal harbour, false creek north water front locations are not going to be affected. Most people who own are affluent
LOL. I heard this fallacy many times about areas in the US —which have all tanked since. Yet another version of the “It can’t happen here” myth, being trotted out by myopic dunces who used to say it can’t happen at all.
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bdk Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
browntown why don’t you stick to one name and be proud of all the garbage you write on here?
Just because everyone laughs at you and thinks you’re an idiot doesn’t make it okay to accuse me of writing something that was obviously written by you.
If you don’t work in a unionised capitalist warhouse, or whatever it was you said yesterday, then where do you work?
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
You, too, can buy a MARKET INTELLIGENCE subscription from Jennifer Podmore, Managing Partner of MPC INTELLIGENCE:
email: jennifer@mpcintelligence.ca
” Market Intelligence Subscriptions
British Columbia
Vancouver Lower Mainland: $ 5,950.00
BC Interior: $ 4,250.00
Greater Victoria: $ 2,350.00
BC Province (includes all submarkets): $ 10,500.00″
http://www.thetrac.ca/about
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arit Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Regarding:
“Hey Anonymous, did you see the link I posted?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..32046.html
Waterfront bought for $798,000 two years ago, now going for 13% off (or best offer).”
We have been following that “Platinum” unit for 3-4 months, with its Kayaks and bowling alleys LOL
I can only say one thing: If you are ’smart’ enough to buy a 1!, BEDROOM!, CONDO!, for EIGHT-HUNDRED-THOUSAND-DOLLARS!!!, bankruptcy is imminent.
“Resistance is futile!”
Best regards,
arit
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Ooh, Daddy!
http://www.concertproperties.c...../main8.htm
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Jason Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Good point Potato Hat…
“He also observed the somewhat surprising trend that prices were dropping faster in West Vancouver and the westside, instead of the suburbs, which is the reverse of the trend seen in California, Florida, etc…”
I’ve noticed this as well, and going by the Fraser Valley Real estate stats and the Greater Vancouver area, the alarming trend is that this fact becomes more and more event as the days wear on. We have always said that we mirror the US and their decline, but there appears to be no explaination for this, as this seems to be the reverse of what is/was happening in the States.
I’m personally thinking that the “perceived” value for the homes in the valley is higher (McMansion’s with higher square footage)than for the tiny old Vancouver 1950’s box or condo.
I;m disappointed becayse I figured there would be the price drops out here, and so far we have not seen the same ones that Vancouver is experiencing…maybe the Valley is different?!
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
see Page 7:
http://www.strangeloopnetworks.com/files/PDF/event/biv949.pdf
“My passion — more from blood than osmosis from my dad [Real estate developer David Podmore] being in the industry — is that I love development.”
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Jennifer Podmore Russell
Founder and managing partner, MPC Intelligence
Age: 28
“She spent four years tracking real estate development and its associated trends with Colliers International before a conversation with a friend would provoke Podmore Russell into action.”
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patriotz Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
hat this fact becomes more and more event as the days wear on. We have always said that we mirror the US and their decline, but there appears to be no explaination for this,
But there is an explanation, which is that the “subprime” and liar loans made to low-income buyers in the US were much less prevalent here. In other words low-income buyers found it harder to overextend themselves. And there was less speculation in the burbs because everyone knows rich people don’t want to live there.
On the other hand the West Side and West Van saw a huge wave of speculation, funded by God knows how many sources of hot money, on the idea that since these were the rich parts of town prices could never go down. Price/rent of some properties in these areas went past 400, while few in the valley hit 300. Well of course we all know that in the last few months a lot of hot money has gone “poof” and we can see the results.
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YLTNboomerang Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
The fact is coal harbour, false creek north water front locations are not going to be affected..
I love this! Those are the exact areas I am tracking on my spreadsheet and they have totally been affected!
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bearette Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
B.C. unemployment rate up:
bs
Last Updated: Friday, November 7, 2008 | 2:14 PM ET Comments1Recommend3
CBC News
As construction of the Olympic oval nears completion, B.C.’s unemployment rate remains a full percentage point below the national average, despite rising half a percentage point in September. (Rafal Gerszak/Canadian Press)
Unemployment in B.C. has risen to its highest level in almost two years, according to fi Statistics Canada figures released Friday.
The numbers show 8,300 jobs disappeared in B.C. last month, pushing the jobless rate up half a percentage point to 5.1 per cent, an increase from 4.6 per cent in September.
But the province’s unemployment rate was more than a full percentage point lower than the national average, which climbed one-tenth of a point to 6.2 per cent.
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Pandora Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Er….so 8,300 people lost their jobs last month.
So ignore the stress, disruption, and potentially devastating effect on all the individuals and families involved but rejoice in the fact this might have some effect on prices. Utterly charming.
Anyway, to the poster above – I have a number of friends (resident in BC and other provinces) who own in Coal Harbour and False Creek and several have units on the market. Not a sniff at the prices they are asking apparently so many intend to take them off the market as they have no need to sell. Several others, however, are hanging on for dear life as there are insufficient local renters to cover costs. So Coal Harbour is definitely in play in all this.
That said – many of the unoccupied units are not intended to be rented so unlit units are not a reliable indicator of anything. Many offshore owners buy to hold. Cash flow is nice but not necessary and some prefer not to earn income in Canada. Whatever the prices are (or perhaps were is more apt!) in Vancouver, they looked fairly attractive as against NY, London or Paris psf. Notwithstanding the surprising number of people on here who seem to revel in denigrating the city, there are many, many people around the world who view it as a pretty special place to own a property. I am one of them.
Cheers all.
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
“So ignore the stress, disruption, and potentially devastating effect on all the individuals and families involved but rejoice in the fact this might have some effect on prices. Utterly charming.”
yes. we’re all vewy vewy bad people. does that mean we have to go to bed without any supper?
you’re such a wanker.
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bdk Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
It looks like Vancouverites aren’t the only people who think they live in an international hub.
Look at this quote from todays NY Times
“They are the most aggressive buyers in the market right now,” said Kevin McBride, an agent with Atlanta Fine Homes Sotheby’s International in Atlanta. In international hubs like Atlanta, overseas clients now account for anywhere from 10 to 30 percent of sales, industry experts say.”
An international hub in Atlanta?
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Whatever the prices are (or perhaps were is more apt!) in Vancouver, they looked fairly attractive as against NY, London or Paris psf.
Notwithstanding the surprising number of people on here who seem to revel in denigrating the city, there are many, many people around the world who view it as a pretty special place to own a property. I am one of them.
Someone call the Poison Control Center we have a Kool-Aid OD victim here!
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buff_butler Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
“And there was less speculation in the burbs because everyone knows rich people don’t want to live there.”
could it also be for the case of vancouver that newer properties are located in the burbs. A lot of properties in Vancouver proper are older then my grandparents.
Also the burbs have a bigger pool of recent buyers so the prices will “stick” longer. A theory anyways.
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Fom PaulB’s site:
Blogger Dave said…
Patriotz, thanks for clarifying the concept in the formula for Drachen. It looks like his ‘155 IQ’ was on autopilot.
Oh no, Dave does not make personal attacks! What an ass Dave is.
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Vansanity Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Pandora – you just don’t get it. You think we’re cheering when we’re simply discussing. Go ahead and burry your head in the sand when it comes to bad news, you’ll have plenty of company, trust me.
We’re not cheering job losses. Part of analyzing this market involves discussing a number of areas including job losses. Any one of us may be affected by a job loss, we would be naive to think otherwise. Just like we think it is equally naive to ignore these facts (nudge, nudge).
I’d rather anticipate what’s coming down the road through my windshield, not my rearview. Too bad if you don’t like the current road we’re on, get off at the next exit.
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Mold City Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Pandora, I’m curious. Are you cheering for a situation in Vancouver that encourages families to stretch every last dollar to live in small one bedroom condos, many of which end up leaky and require big extra special assesment charges? Are you cheering a mythical unending rise in real estate prices that would eventually price everyone out of the market?
You seem to understand that the current collapse in the Vancouver market was unavoidable, so why do you argue that discussing ALL of the local economic factors that affect a housing market is ‘cheering on’ the misery of others? How could unemployment rates NOT fall when the boom ceases? Everyone here seems to have been arguing that you should prepare for times like these, and this proves them right.
If there’s a bit too much schadenfreude in some comments, perhaps you should think about how a housing bubble negatively affects those that don’t partake in it as well as those that foolishly do.
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ted Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Speaking of the RRSP issue, it looks like it might be getting tougher to get an RRSP loan:
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....7.wagf1107
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greed Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
#23 – Anonymous; you are a moron, to put it bluntly. This market will not escape and has not escapted at all. I have access to REBGV system and can point to several examples of units in these locations decling, in some cases 15% since March 2008. There is no better evidence than presenting several paired sales to call fools like yourself out.
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Burden of Proof Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Pandora is simply recycling the bubble blowing myths that lead to the current crisis in the local RE market. Don’t waste your breath, Pandora. If you think you can re-inflate the bubble with the same tired mantras, you are wrong. Nobody believes that crap anymore.
Don’t assume that the population is composed of utter morons. Economic crisis has a way of waking people up with a hard slap in the face.
The RE market is dead because people have finally woken up to reality. No matter how hard you try, you cannot ressurect the fantasy prices of fantasy land.
In short, Pandora is fighting against reality. Reality has a way of winning every time.
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Burden of Proof Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
By the way, if Pandora does not want to talk about the economic crisis why is he/she on a blog? He/she seems to wish this blog would just shut down.
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
The Provincial Government wants to freeze property assessments at 2007 levels.
This idea must have been dreamed up by either Aaron Best or Maggie Chandler.
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greed Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Pandora.
Whatever the prices are (or perhaps were is more apt!) in Vancouver, they looked fairly attractive as against NY, London or Paris psf.
- So how do rents and personal incomes in these cities compare to Vancouver? Arn’t these markets tanking too? Simple, the market is primarily tanking because values are not in line with rent and income.
Notwithstanding the surprising number of people on here who seem to revel in denigrating the city, there are many, many people around the world who view it as a pretty special place to own a property. I am one of them.
- in a geographical sense, yes I agree. Take away the mountains and ocean (and hockey), the city is a shit hole with zero character. How on earth on a day like today (there are around 250 days like today in a typical year) can you say this is a pretty special place to own property? For every person you know, I know one more that is not impressed with this place at all. Hey, every one is different. Thank god, what will we do without stupid greedy specvestors!
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Adrian Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
In my view, if you own any residential property and do NOT live in it, that is “speculation”
I would use the definition from Intelligent Investor:
An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Re Property Assessments frozen:
Two parties in the assessment profession were on the radio yesterday. They too, were unclear what Campbell is actually trying to do.
However, their best guess is the only ones who will benefit from the assessment freeze will be those whose properties had risen in value in the last assessment year. Their properties will thus be assessed using year- old numbers.
They also cautioned re: appeals, as it may backfire and parties appealing may not only lose the appeal but also be assessed higher.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Re ” speculation ”
I am not necessarily trying to cast ” speculation ” in a negative light.
If you own a piece of property , and you live on said property, history would show that the price would rise over time. You need a place to live, the propertie’s appreciation may or may not concern you , but in my view it is speculation if you tend to move a lot under the principal residence-capital gains scenario.
If you do not live in the unit, I think it is clear that the rent you collect on a new unit will never suffice on it’s own to pay the mortgage(those days are long gone). Positive Cash Flow is a non – starter aka their is none. Thus, a non -resident owner is simply hoping his profits exceed his costs and his return is realized in a shorter time frame aka flip it . Again, often the norm ,hence speculation.
If the place sits empty, and is not used by the owner nor is it rented out, that again is ” speculation” . Why is one’s money sitting there locked up doing nothing ? Again ” speculation ” by -and -large.
There are few if any safe “investments” these days, there is risk and reward in such endeavours, , but it appears the entire system has been programmed for people to speculate on the global RE Ponzi scheme.
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dingus Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
“So ignore the stress, disruption, and potentially devastating effect on all the individuals and families involved but rejoice in the fact this might have some effect on prices.”
Oh, I intend to. Who was wringing their hands and crying crocodile tears for MY family when we were shut out of the market. You, Pandora? Do you have any regard for the disruption the bubble has caused for many families like mine?
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Sarah Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Call me, Dave. Maybe we can go on another date on the skytrain. I enjoyed the last one when we went to the bowling alley. kisses, Dave.
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Keeping an Eye on the Pimps Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
We all heard the brainless kool aid drinkers, “Vancouver is special, and we are the California of the North”.
Well perhaps the fools were right, so far in California over 30% of home debtors owe more on their mortgage than what the shacks are worth.
Yeap it’s a new paradigm.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-c.....ebbies.jpg
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scullboy Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Hey Pandora honey, what’s rose:
Reveling in the ridiculous housing bubble that reward greedy specuvestors, condo marketers, mortgage brokers and bankers at the expense of ordinary working people and families adn responsible savers or
Reveling in the collapse of the economic conditions that fuelled the ridiculous housing bubble
God, you are so obviously a Boomer… climb the ol’ ladder then pull it up behind you. Well hang on honey, this ride’s going to get rough. Don’t blame us, we just saw what was happening.
It’s people like you who got this party started. Now you can stand by and watch how it ends.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
many of the unoccupied units are not intended to be rented
So if it’s empty, and intended to stay empty….. Honestly, how can you write this down and not see how absurd a statement it is. The ONLY reasons to own an illiquid, deteriorating asset with monthly costs and no income is either in hope of future price appreciation or for personal enjoyment. (usually sport cars).
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
So the rental squeeze is so bad people will pay $500/mo to live in a closet
Yeah, yeah, it’s just poor headline writing but I sure laughed
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bosleys hair club for men Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
yeah bdk! i concern you and scullboy same person! maybe we can all meet at oddesyes for threeway speaker dance! some nutslapping!
one headline wont see in 2009
” there is a cure for male patern badness”
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Desperate flippers are popping up like the mushrooms in the walls.
Craigslist is a fair gauge of specuvestor mood, I’m thinking.
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Paul Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
#72 – A LOT of brand new condos have been purchased for pure speculation with no regard for rental income. Most of these owners have no experience as landlords, and are paranoid about renting it out for fear that it will no longer be a “virgin” apartment. As absurd as it sounds, they would rather forego the rental income and hope that it will eventually appreciate in value.
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scullboy Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
#74
Um…. no. No, we can’t. Why do idiot straight guys always assume they’re hot?
Dude, you’re not hot. You may think the homo jokes are funny but the fact is, the joke’s on you.
Seriously.
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beta Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Whatever the prices are (or perhaps were is more apt!) in Vancouver, they looked fairly attractive as against NY, London or Paris
LMAO. Yes, and a $30k asking price for a ‘93 Toyota Tercel looks fairly attractive against the price of a new Lexus or Mercedes, but the Tercel is still a laughably overpriced piece of crap.
I heard the same argument (with far better justification) said of places like Orange County or Palm Springs or Vegas, but they all fell regardless.
Go ahead, talk up the market all you like, sing a rousing chorus of Kumbaya on the deck of the Titanic, it won’t change a thing. You’re just going to feel more stupid and embarrassed later–but don’t worry, we won’t even remember you.
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beatstreet Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
This is only anecdotal evidence, but in south granville there seems to be an uptick in suites available for rent. In fact, at 1366 West 13th there is a complete building for rent. Now, these are “executive” suites. But no worries, there are three other buildings in same block with suites for rent that I am sure are a bit cheaper.
Anyone else seeing more for rent signs?
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Browntown et al:
Oooh, spurned by a gay guy! How’s that feel? Bad enough getting turned down by the chicks, but this must REALLY sting!
Seriously, I welcome all LITERATE and INTELLIGENT points of view, even Dave. (Best to keep those dangerous types in sight, you never know when some young and naive relative might be taken in by a huckster) But you, brownstain? You’re a waste of meat, and your posts are a waste of electrons.
Come to think of it, this post is actually to make Scullboy, who is kinda hot, laugh.
If only I was gay. And single. And younger. Oh well.
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bosleys hair club for men Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
hey canuckster! too late for you to grow balls woosie! enjoy basement sweet nutbag!
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browntown Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
yeah alexcanuck! tuesday don’t forget to thank guys who have balls! ha ha
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anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
So hold on a second here, it’s ok for scullboy to make innapropriate remarks about ethnics and boomers but not to take any back? Alexcanuck your sense of security behind Scullboy is misplaced, you are both wussies.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
The ANONYMOUS poster calls ME a wussie?!?
(And I can’t resist, sorry for this.)
I actually would feel more insecure with Scullboy behind ME.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
I hope I don’t have to change my handle now.
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anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
The internet is anonymous, you don’t even have balls for this venue moron.
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blueskies Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
ooh!
gonna be a long night
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Browntown, satv, rob, Krish, or whatever you go by, check this out:
http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/
Mind you they don’t have our weather.
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patriotz Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
If you do not live in the unit, I think it is clear that the rent you collect on a new unit will never suffice on it’s own to pay the mortgage(those days are long gone).
Yes of course that’s true at today’s prices. That was my point. Anyone who buys at bubble prices is a speculator, because they are losing money on an operating basis and are expecting capital gains to make up for it.
But the days of positive cash flow are coming back – they have to. Using capital gains to compensate for an operating loss is a pyramid scheme, which is why prices always revert to fundamentals.
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BBY Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Thousands move from B.C. cities
…found that from 2001 to 2006, Vancouver saw a net outflow of 25,560 B.C. residents.
http://www.bclocalnews.com/gre.....ities.html
More darkness than lights on in the condo towers.
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Dave Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Patriotz, you also need to consider that rent goes up every year and that owners build equity, even in a stagnant price environment. Nothing speculative about that.
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Anonymous Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
“In unstable economy, renovate (don’t buy)”
In stable or unstable economy: LEAVE IT ALONE. There is nothing wrong with your place. DO NOT RENOVATE. Just leave it alone and save your money. DO NOT listen to your wife!
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Scullboy2 Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Baby this is 2008 in 2007 more than 60,000 people moved to British Columbia to grab front seats in the “best place on earth” oh i have got it you are a baby don’t you?
“Patriotz, you also need to consider that rent goes up every year and that owners build equity, even in a stagnant price environment. Nothing speculative about that.”
Dave, he knows it very well that rent and vancouver real estate never go down even he got some special links in his document to prove your point but he may not going to do this time,however if he choose to conflict i will scan through easy accessable archives.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Here is a well known well respectd global RE expert.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10KWqCUkSDU
NYC RE about to boom !!!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Damn Youtube:
If go to YouTube:
Type in “Osamanomics: Warning Infidels of Real Esate Crash
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Dropper Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
owners build equity, even in a stagnant price environment.
Yeah, how about in a collapsing price environment?
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patriotz Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
Patriotz, you also need to consider that rent goes up every year and that owners build equity, even in a stagnant price environment.
Well no they don’t. Who is making up that monthly shortfall, the Tooth Fairy?
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Dave Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Patriotz, that does not detract from my points in any way.
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scullboy Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Alexcanuck:
You have it backwards dude, gay guys are way pickier then chicks. You make it sound like we’ll sleep with anything.
krrish’s mom on the other hand…. well let’s just say he moved into Tranny towers so he’d feel more at home.
The only difference between his mom and Vancouver real estate is that Vancouver real estate never goes down!
Sorry Drachen, I can only avoid krrish’s mom jokes for so long.
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Scullboy2 Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Well no they don’t. Who is making up that monthly shortfall, the Tooth Fairy?
Dave Watt to save realtors job!
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Scullboy:
Chill, I’m more savvy than that. It’s more the effect on browntown I like.
I do the grouse grind a LOT. You should see the face of some cocky young bucks when a woman old enough to be their grandmother passes them! That’s the picture I had in mind.
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Bizznitch Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:21 am
Some more good news in Vancouver….
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....14c93192a3
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:26 am
Anonymous 23,
You are dumb.
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:33 am
Pandora,
There is a mad rush to exit the market. Prices are falling. Get out now while you can. Tell your friends not to be stupid.
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:35 am
Pandora,
Are you being dumb?
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scullboy Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 3:14 am
Alex: Gotcha. I love those old girls, several of them kicked my ass in a half marathon.
Quite frankly I find it more then a little disturbing that krrish seems to have developed a scullboy2 persona. Hey krrish, what the hell is that about? It seems to belie a certain desire to be me, which in turn pulls the rug out from under your random bullish babblings.
Oh, I know, it’s hard to resist… I imagine you as one ugly little homonculous so it’s gotta be hard to know there’s an attractive, successful gay dude running circles around you mentally, making fun of your mom and encouraging others to point and laugh…. but dude, taking my name? That’s a little Single White Female, don’t you think?
Is it that you envy my looks, my Casanova love ‘em and leave ‘em lifestyle, or the freedom to change careers that I enjoy and you don’t? C’mon dude ….. you can tell me. It’s ok, I understand….. between the crappy warehouse job, the ugly spouse (admit it, your mate’s fuggers) or the awful dawning realization that this is as good as it will get…. why wouldn’t you want to escape?
Maybe you should do something constructive, like watching the equity in your Tranny Towers sh*tbox disappear. Or…. you know…. talk to Mrs. Fuggers. I’m sure she appreciates your company way more then we do.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:24 am
I wonder who is pulling out their old Dire Straights album and CDs. It seems a good time for it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgYzzJWW4nY
“I used to like to go to work but they shut it down
I got a right to go to work but there’s no work here to be found
Yes and they say were gonna have to pay whats owed
Were gonna have to reap from some seed that’s been sowed
And the birds up on the wires and the telegraph poles
They can always fly away from this rain and this cold
You can hear them singing out their telegraph code
All the way down the telegraph road
You know Id sooner forget but I remember those nights
When life was just a bet on a race between the lights
You had your head on my shoulder you had your hand in my hair
Now you act a little colder like you don’t seem to care
But believe in me baby and Ill take you away
From out of this darkness and into the day
From these rivers of headlights these rivers of rain
From the anger that lives on the streets with these names
cos Ive run every red light on memory lane
Ive seen desperation explode into flames
And I dont want to see it again. . .”
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patriotz Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 5:03 am
Ah yes, Telegraph Road from Love over Gold, 1982. How appropriate.
And just to show you that great minds think alike:
patriotz said…
Ozzie showed up on Global and agreed that prices would fall but don’t worry it only dropped 17% over 3 years in Vancouver last time.
“Last time” was the late 90’s. The runup had been nowhere near what we have seen in the last 6 years, and the economy both here and in the US was doing well (forest industry healthy, dot-com boom).
So what have we got now? RE bubble, dead forest industry, US recession. Now when have we seen that before? Not in the 90’s, folks. Put on some Dire Straits, because that’s what we’re headed for.
June 3, 2008 8:51 PM
http://househuntvictoria.blogs.....-sign.html
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 5:35 am
WITH THE PURCHASE OF THIS HOUSE COMES A FREE TRIP FOR 2 TO LAS VEGAS AND FREE LOCAL MOVING FROM R & R MOVERS
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....11426.html
Free trip anyone? Now how could you pass up free moving from R&R movers. That’s R&R movers, folks. Now is your chance.
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 5:40 am
“$419000 Don’t be FOOLED by the headlines! (SW Maple Ridge)
Now is the best time to be buying or moving up while prices are back at affordable levels.”
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....31536.html
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Northeast Canuck Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 6:25 am
“Whatever the prices are (or perhaps were is more apt!) in Vancouver, they looked fairly attractive as against NY, London or Paris psf.”
No, they didn’t. This comment is precisely why the crash in Vancouver is going to be huge. I am a Canadian who has been living in England for over 10 years. I have been planning on returning to Vancouver for several years now and have found myself priced out of the Vancouver market.
But the thing is, although I prefer Vancouver over all of those cities, most people know nothing about the place. Vancouver is NOT comparable to London, NY or Paris. It does NOT have anything like what these places have to offer in terms of employment. Those cities are so huge economically that they operate more like city-states. They have economies bigger than some countries. There are over 300 banks based in London alone. OK this is contributing to the problems there, but believe me London will survive and prosper in the long run.
Vancouver, on the other hand, had property prices that at the peak were actually comparable to London. Two bedroom condos priced between $500K and $1M. People buying properties without surveys because they were in a bidding war. This didn’t even happen in England during the heights of the boom here! Absolutely ridiculous.
This is why the crash is going to be so bad.
For me though, it is good news, because I will finally be able to return home, after the dust settles.
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Dave Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 7:43 am
Patriotz – “Last time” was the late 90’s. The runup had been nowhere near what we have seen in the last 6 years, and the economy both here and in the US was doing well (forest industry healthy, dot-com boom).
So what have we got now? RE bubble, dead forest industry, US recession. Now when have we seen that before? Not in the 90’s, folks. Put on some Dire Straits, because that’s what we’re headed for.
Repeating the same lies won’t change reality.
The run from 87 to 94 is basically identical to the one from 01 to 08. Same period of time and the same percent run-up from the bottom.
The dot-com bubble didn’t start until after the mid 1990’s, well after the previous real estate boom in BC.
If anything, the 90’s was BCs lost decade. The NDP mismanaged our economy while the rest of North America did well. Were you not here at the time? I remember and will not forget.
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patriotz Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 7:49 am
How come people never compare Vancouver prices to Seattle, which is only 150 miles away, bigger, has lower taxes, and has more major employers than Vancouver – Microsoft, Boeing, Starbucks, Costco, etc. ?
Oh right – Seattle is a lot cheaper, and still people there say it’s overpriced.
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patriotz Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 7:52 am
Repeating the same lies won’t change reality.
Got that right Dave. If the facts on the ground are any indication, we have already equaled the decline of the late 90’s in just over 6 months.
Spin that one.
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Dave Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Deflect away, but I can only assume you agree with my response to your statement of ‘nowhere near’.
And no, we have no yet equaled that decline. We are about 10% down from the peak. It seems most housing economists are predicting a greater correction than last time around, but not by much. The US economic recession will obviously be a major factor in that outcome.
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freako Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 8:10 am
” Market Intelligence Subscriptions
British Columbia
Vancouver Lower Mainland: $ 5,950.00
Yeah, that is funny. They collect good money to hand out dish out industry propaganda. As you probably know, CUCBC charges for Pastrick’s reports. If I paid money for that advice and relied on it, I’d be MIGHTY pissed.
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freako Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 8:21 am
So ignore the stress, disruption, and potentially devastating effect on all the individuals and families involved but rejoice in the fact this might have some effect on prices. Utterly charming.
You posted in the other thread, and got some honest answers from the bear perspective. For somebody who has stayed sane during the this senseless mania, the unravelling is welcome news. Those construction jobs should never have existed in the first place.
Analogy: You are a clean athlete competing against steroid and growth hormone filled monsters. You soldier on, but keep getting your ass handed to you. A new drug test is developed, and all the cheaters get nailed. The clean athletes are very happy about this. However, Pandora pipes in and scolds the clean athletes. First, they shouldn’t be happy about the other athletes demise, they have families to feed. Second, now the quality of the athletes will decline.
He totally misses the point that the “cheaters” success was an illusion, and the downfall was inevitable. A clean athlete would be excited, because the circus is over and normalcy will return. He is not happy per se about the pesonal negative impact on the athletes being disqualified, but he does feel that they are responsible for their own downfall, as well as the dislocations they have caused.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 8:44 am
the 90’s was BCs lost decade. The NDP mismanaged our economy while the rest of North America did well.
Ok,leave the political affiliation out of it for just a moment, but consider this.
Maybe, just maybe what is crowed about as a “strong economy” was just the result of people, en masse, being suckered into taking on debt and spending it. That does mean an apparent boost to the economy, but it is not real, not sustainable and certainly not beneficial to those poor suckers who are now seeing the paper wealth of their homes and stocks evaporate while the debt IS STILL THERE, demanding monthly payments as the economy gives up the artificial boost and then some. All the while ignoring any real and sustainable growth, in fact allowing massive amounts of production to be lost.
During a time of recession, a temporary boost of this nature may be warranted, with trepidation and caution, but we (at least our fearless leaders) used this technique continuously, throwing more gasoline everytime the flames started to die down. Recently this has stopped working! The bed is made at this point. Sleep well.
I could rant on for hours, but must go.
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Frugal gal Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 8:47 am
” “So ignore the stress, disruption, and potentially devastating effect on all the individuals and families involved but rejoice in the fact this might have some effect on prices.”
Oh, I intend to. Who was wringing their hands and crying crocodile tears for MY family when we were shut out of the market. You, Pandora? Do you have any regard for the disruption the bubble has caused for many families like mine? ” +++++
” WITH THE PURCHASE OF THIS HOUSE COMES A FREE TRIP FOR 2 TO LAS VEGAS AND FREE LOCAL MOVING FROM R & R MOVERS “++++
My comment: Wow.. las vegas and free moving?!! Well, I guess I will have to line up with all eager buyers and take part in a bidding war!! OMG.. HOW TIMES CHANGED, in a matter of months. A bidding war!! Remember?
Like Dingus, I guess my attitude is the same. I have always been an orderly chick, saving, no habits, forgoing things, been told by even low income peeps, if people were like me, there would be no economy. I stand by: if they want too much, they get nothing, I substitute or change goals.
Walk away.
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patriotz Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 9:27 am
It seems most housing economists are predicting a greater correction than last time around, but not by much.
These of course are the very same people who last spring were saying that house prices would keep going up.
If you want to get an accurate prediction of the magnitude of the coming decline, how about listening to the people who were right about the decline in the first place? In other words, us.
You also don’t seem (or don’t want) to understand that the US recession’s root cause is the debt-fueled bubble economy of the last half-dozen years, which has been replicated in BC with an even lower savings rate. The cause of the upcoming global recession is the global housing bubble. BC is not some innocent bystander, it was one of the most enthusiastic participants.
And one last thing – I’m not interested in defending Glen Clark, among other things because he’s the guy who brought the Olympics to Vancouver, but if you think the real price peak in 1995 was sustainable and prices would have kept going up if there had been a change in government the next year, you’re as out of it as the people who predicted earlier this year that prices would keep going up. Oh I forgot – you are one of the people who predicted that prices would keep going up.
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greed Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 9:31 am
#110. looks like one of those sophisticated flippers is going to get burnt. You guys should watch re-runs of flip that house, good humour. dont think they are making any more episodes. so how do you bear renters feel every day knowing you are saving around $500. I am one of the few around town skipping and whistling. I pick it up a notch whenever I see a hard hat construction worker, a realtor or some dumb ass 20 something YO driving a fancy truck or SUV.
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Financial woes follow Olympic builder to W. Van
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....14c93192a3
“Prices may not hold up [in the future],” Somerville said”
“Whistler mayor worried about Intrawest debt restructuring
Refinancing deal may involve $1.4 billion”
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....74d30c1e73
“The debt — trading at less than 70 cents on the dollar — is due on Thursday and Intrawest owner Fortress Investment Group has approached lenders about a refinancing deal involving $1.4 billion in senior debt, according to a Financial Times report”
Dave: are you still telling Vancouverites it’s a great time to buy if the metrics are right?
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 9:38 am
“because the circus is over and normalcy will return”
Freako,
Why the cost is runing over on lots of projects?
If current market situation or your excpected further normalcy justify your opinion then cost shouldn’t be runing over it means home price are worth higher but SOME PART OF SOCIETY IS A SICK who’s wishful thinking is to stop the money flow (a wheel of economy).
Regarding job loss:Nobody knows if those employees are home owners or tenents so you can’t use their impact on real estate but you can use their impact on economy then the responsible group is a sick part of society who stop the money flow,A wishful Damage to our
employement,society,and economy.
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Drachen Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Nobody
Ahh, so given that your argument is essentially that prices cannot fall.
And, given that prices are falling.
Which one is wrong, you or reality?
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 9:49 am
“You guys should watch re-runs of flip that house, good humour. dont think they are making any more episodes. so how do you bear renters feel every day knowing you are saving around $500.”
Greed,
I can’t speak for the other bears, but I can tell you It feels almost orgasmic, to see how some of the fools who thought they were financial geniuses because they listened to the Bill Good Show, finally get their comeuppance.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t have anything against legitimate returns on legitimate calculated risk, that’s all good with me.
But RE pimps, who damage the economy and stress families should be taxed out of existence, but the problem is that the legislators themselves whether provincial or municipal may be living off the avails of the RE whores.
Otherwise why would they all be on the bandwagon, cheerleading the Olympic BS?
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Dave Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Dave: are you still telling Vancouverites it’s a great time to buy if the metrics are right?
Yes, if the metrics are right for an individual, then it is indeed a great time to buy.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Anyone got an update on the Ritz – Carlton excavation hole ? ( Last update was that work had again commenced )
— still digging ?
— stopped work ?
— or completed ?
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Drachen,
A group of people can make some one fool for while but after adjustment of job loss,home prices,income etc. the strongest part or big fishes are ready to play again.
Lets do some math http://poll.pollhost.com/cm9iY.....Nzb3J0ZWQ/
Top 85 bears bloggers make more than $1 Million plus means atleast $240 per hour are they willing to work on half prices? Answer is no because they might think that $240 per hour is not insane rates according to their current status they deserve that rate of pay but they are wishful to stop the money flow to damage real estate prices are willing to tell other part of society that real estate prices are insane.
If they use their option to run society perfectly they can stop the demolision of society by buying according to their age,if they are home owner stick to their unit unless trade is required to upgrade their space area not to flip flop and re-enter otherwise this transaction will go through job loss not necesserily their jobs but some one else’s job.
I don’t think i can write 10 page this time but the reality is real estate prices in Vancouver type of cities in the world virtualy poised to never go down however lots of people act as a crocodiles,make other fool or foreclose others home to re-enter at low then start riding high.The best thing is people on the bottom line or middle line should use their option anytime to buy principle residence then don’t look for market trend ever just enjoy your life.
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Rates of pay:One should read $480 per hours
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Pandora Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Some very enlightened posters on here who can obviously put a view across eloquently and politely.
Conversely some obviously very rude and I suspect intellectually inadequate people who take any point of view apparently contrary to theirs as a personal affront.
I say apparently because nowhere in my post did I “talk up” the market. I simply said compared to many other cities Vancouver is relatively good value. And I have no doubt it is going to become better value because the market is going to continue to correct. That will be good news for people who want to enter the market but perhaps not such good news for those who have lost their jobs as they will not be able to take advantage of the lower prices will they?
So my point is simply this – are people here hoping for lower prices at any cost (including severe unemployment with its attendant vices) simply so they can revel in other people having lost money (in many cases only on paper)? Or are they looking forward to lower prices as that will make home ownership a reality for many more people – in which case how do they reconcile that with the unemployment they see as a contributing factor to the decline?
With best wishes – (even to the “wankers”)
P
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 10:37 am
How can it possibly be a great time to buy when you can buy an equivalent place for 40-60% less by waiting? And pay less monthly to rent that same place. Retire 5 years earlier! Simply by ignoring people desperate for a commission check. Anyone in the RE industry does not have your best interest at heart! More broadly, ANYONE who gets paid or not depending on your choice is NOT a source for unbiased advice.
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patriotz Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 10:43 am
I simply said compared to many other cities Vancouver is relatively good value.
It isn’t. Value for an asset means yield, and yield on Vancouver RE is among the lowest in the world.
Rents in all other cities (I really don’t think there are any exceptions) that are as expensive as Vancouver are way higher.
“Cheaper” does not mean “better value”. Not for houses, not for stocks, and really not for anything.
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blueskies Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Yes, if the metrics are right for an individual, then it is indeed a great time to buy.
given that there are very few buyers out there would suggest the metrics now are terrible…and about to become much worse.
read somewhere that BMO was looking for 35-40% down payment from qualified buyers
sounds like the easy money is gone….
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greed Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Pandora, you simply do not ‘get it’. I wish you all the best because you seem like a decent caring person, but your understanding of this market is very poor to say the least. Perhaps we could be a little more humble in our posts, but it works both ways, not long ago we were hearing it from the bulls.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Pandora: I, at least, am not so delusional as to believe that anything I “hope” for or against has any effect on reality.
I merely make the best choices for me and mine in this very imperfect world we live in. It is up to the people who run the world to make my rational choice for my own good coincide with the greater good. Right now their abysmal failure to do that is being exposed.
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Strataman Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Dave says “Yes, if the metrics are right for an individual, then it is indeed a great time to buy.” I suppose technically that is true, for instance if I ran across a place I liked that was 70% below the peak in May of this year I would consider the metrics quite good and I would buy!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 11:19 am
You Tube has a lot of features re: the Global RE pimping:
A German crew did a feature on Spain. Given what was going on you’d think it was BC except for the locale and scenery.
Apparently Spain became a popular investment throughout Europe, and became an RE pimpimg hotspot. They featured a couple who bought into the RE pimping for their own principal residence , (ie ” BUY NOW or you’ll never be able to afford !!!” ) for what was a tiny apartment, but their financing costs ran from about $600 Euros to $800 then $1000 Euros per month, They were continually cutting back to the point their own car as going to be sold.
Then they showed ” For Sale” signs all over the place ..the bubble had burst.
This documentary was made in 2007 . Same story as BC (and elsewhere)though, RE pimping Hot Spot…lots of Non Resident pimping , Local Residents then caught up in it, lots of new construction , economy dependent on the construction, then bubble bursts ….down the old proverbial toilet.
BC perhaps lagged, but was long overdue.
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observer Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 11:20 am
There seem to be rumors that CFO for Vancouver resigned over concerns about Millennium loan and was not present at the in camera meeting because of this. Starting to really stink. See G&M article today “Opposition angry over city CFO’s absence from loan meeting”.
It is understandable if there are currently negotiations going on, that a black out period is advisable, like in a labor negotiation. But the public is entitled to know at least what is being negotiated in broad terms. It should be possible to do this without jeopardizing the project. As politicians, that is part of their job to balance these two obligations.
If all parties would simply confirm that such negotiations are still taking place, there would be no more controversy. End of story.
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Time Machine Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Pandora, all those specuvestors created a big bubble and the bursting of the bubble is pulling down the entire global economy. Even people that never intended to buy real estate are now suffering lay offs because of the specuvstor generated bubble.
The specuvestors are getting what they deserve now. If the specuvestors weren’t so greedy in the first place, they wouldn’t be in the position they are now. Why should we feel sorry for all those greedy specuvestors?
By the way Pandora, are you a specuvestor too?
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freako Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
The run from 87 to 94 is basically identical to the one from 01 to 08. Same period of time and the same percent run-up from the bottom.
The dot-com bubble didn’t start until after the mid 1990’s, well after the previous real estate boom in BC.
The nominal increases are similar, but real increases are were about 25% larger in 2001-2008.
I don’t have the stats handy at the moment, but suspect that the runup in the late 80’s/early 90’s was more fundamentally valid, partially due to a lower starting point.
In any case, comparing to past downturns and expecting repeat is a bit silly because each situation is unique. Generally, the size of the downturn is related to the size of the previous boom, but not all booms are created equal. Some are more fundamentally justified than others. The deviation of indicators such as price/rent and price/income from historical averages are much better predictors. I do think we will see more of 1981 and less of 1997.
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Burden of Proof Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
To further respond to Pandora and others who share the same views, this is a capitalist system. It is based on competition where the strong and the smart survive and thrive. If some dumbass looses his home and his job because of taking on too much debt in the hope for “money for nothing” then too bad for him. For those who saved and have lots of cash, they will buy the dumbass’s assets for very cheap.
The dumbass desrves to loose. If his family suffers it is his fault. The person who buys at the bottom deserves to win and deserves to be happy about it. If you are on the wrong side of capitalism right now, take the opportunity to learn a lesson and do not be so foolish next time.
This is the worst crisis since the great depression. Goldman Sachs has forecast the worst unemployment since world war II. I am happy about it because I have enough cash to buy lots of assets at forced liquidation prices.
The jobs that the debt bubble created were illusory and based on fantasy. When they disappear, we as a society can begin to create real industries based on real production of real wealth. Pandora, if you think that is cruel then you do not understand the creation of wealth and would rather have somthing for nothing.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Personally speaking, I get rather tired of these politicians who have put both public interest and the public assets at risk yet claim they are not .
Duly note that the City jumped in bed with what is effectively a foreign company, and that no local or Canadian company was involved. Does that not indicate anything ?
If Vancouver has surplus $100 Million to throw around and they claim they will not raise property taxes…why is it into risky ventures and not buffering other costs to taxpayers? This Millenium project HAS TO BE COMPLETED !!!unlike others that may be shelved. Millenium condos will then be dumped onto the condo market aftet the 2010 Olympics, correct? …adding to the glut, perhaps driving down the RE market further.
What is even more interesting is the recent ” In Camera ” kool- aid drinking to cover – up the original kool- aid drinking that signed this deal . These political whores simply want self – glory to be Elected Officials at the 2010 games…and all the perks,… then likely bail when the truth comes out ie 2011, the next civic election .
They, as part of the original “Plan A” obviously didn’t want this to get out but it HAS got leaked. Now its cover-up time ie”Plan B” …what other conclusion is there given their original in -camera meeting? Now we have “Godfather-esque” threats of “silence -or -else ” amonsgt the Vancouver Council or “sleep with the False Creek fishes” LOL
They continually dance on the head of a pin and blow smoke of the public’s ass that what IS Public money no matter how you slice it but in their view is none of the public’s business.
Regardless ….I love the timing of this ….ONE WEEK before the civc elections …is Old Sam S’s swan song fingerprints on this leak ?
The Olympics is at least non – discriminatory / non – partisan, it has politicians of all stripes drink the same batch of Kool Aid at the same time (and STFU or else).
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squidly77 Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
the world watches
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
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blueskies Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
The dumbass desrves to loose.
from weak hands to strong hands…
very Darwinian but thems the rules
plus at any time a person can choose to be a contrarian and not drink the koolaid….
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punface Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Re. BMO: I asked my mortgage rep a few weeks ago if I would have any trouble getting a mortgage now, and he said no. Of course this relates only to my condition, which is a cash-heavy bear with 25%+ to put down in addition to other assets (all obtained by renting and saving – fancy that!)
I’m willing to buy places for 35% off of peak pricing. Do any realtors think this is possible yet for someone with a list of places he likes that have been on the market for 4+ months and no fear of rejection?
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freako Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Or are they looking forward to lower prices as that will make home ownership a reality for many more people – in which case how do they reconcile that with the unemployment they see as a contributing factor to the decline?
No, you got it backwards. It is the bubble that caused the unemployment by misallocating resources (too many construction workers, too much consumer spending). You are merely taking swipes at the messenger. You should really point your finger at the at those responsible. The list is long:
-Industry shills
-MSM blindly quoting industry shills
-Specuvestors
-Homebuyers overbidding in order to “get in”
-The lenders who lent to the specuvestors/desperate buyers.
-Those who insured the lenders loans (CMHC)
-Lax regulators who allowed lenders/CMHC to lend to marginal buyers.
Do you know who ABSOLUTELY is NOT responsible. Those who did not participate, but rather spoke out against the bubble. And yet, that is where you place blame.
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sluggo Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
I think even our mega-bears don’t realize just how fast our market is actually crumbling. The sudden bombardment of recession/depression headlines is unprecedented….makes 1982 look like a mere speedpump. It happened so damned fast that the carnage from the shock did’nt have time to make the cut for inclusion in the October price drop of 4.2%
Reports from the trenches are worsening by the week, if not the day as sellers panic and buyers are finally getting some sense pounded into their thick sculls….the mind boggles of what lies ahead.
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Mold City Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
As you probably know, CUCBC charges for Pastrick’s reports. If I paid money for that advice and relied on it, I’d be MIGHTY pissed.
Hahaha! Indeed! What a stellar track record that guys got, check out the predictions from just the last half year here:
http://vancouvercondo.info/wik.....edit_Union
In March of 2008 the prediction was for a 10% INCREASE this year. In August it was a 10% DECREASE and I think the most recent one is a 13% DECREASE.
Those aren’t predictions, they’re rear-view mirror forecasts.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Re Campbell’s Property Assessment freeze.
Today’s Vancouver Sun article (NOV. 8 , 2008 )by Don Cayo in the Business Section PG. 1
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....a18caef830
Cayo’s excellent analysis (recommended reading) seems to conclude that only a few in small assessment niche’s (like commercial properties) will benefit.
Condo’s apparently will NOT benefit, given their assessments will be stuck at older/ higher levels.
Seems like Campbell is doing a good Don Quixote imitation chasing political windmills with all these ill- conceived fantasies to blow smoke up the masses’ asses . Loved his shit eating grin in an old news clip and his kool-aid swigging chant that the Vancouver Convention Cente will be on budget….now its $400 million over(at least what they will admit to).
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Mold City Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Pandora, I appreciate your difference of opinion on the market and your relatively civilized comments, but I don’t think you’re being completely honest.
compared to many other cities Vancouver is relatively good value.
Comparing one city to another is pointless, you can only compare a city to its own fundamentals: local incomes and rents. On that basis Forbes put Vancouver as second most over-priced market in North America after Los Angeles a year ago. Guess whats happened to prices in Los Angeles since then?
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
“Conversely some obviously very rude and I suspect intellectually inadequate people who take any point of view apparently contrary to theirs as a personal affront.”
he he he. seriously, you’re not the first person to call bears vewy vewy bad people. this blog has been around longer than you’ve been posting on it.
yes, i was being rude. i don’t find any need to be polite to people mounted on high moral horses who paint all bears with the same rather wide brush. that is not what “eloquent”, “intelligent” “ladies” do.
and no, i don’t need mommy telling me to go to bed without any supper. neither does anyone else here. so get off your high horse where the air apparently is so thin it’s cutting off circulation to your brain.
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Pandora Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Burden of Proof
For someone who supposedly understands capitalism so well, and is apparently about to clean up because of other people’s alleged foolishness, you sound like a very bitter person indeed. Still, that is your bother.
I am curious, however, about your comment “if some dumbass loses his house and loses his job by taking on too much debt…”. That last bit seems like something of a non sequitur – why would one lose one’s job by taking on too much debt? For that matter why would one lose one’s job because one lost one’s house?
And by the way, I understand capitalism perfectly well thank you. I also understand the vagaries of the market and holding for long term growth and have done perfectly well out of it. Equally, I applaud people who have had the patience and sagacity to time the market. Not sure why one is better than other unless it is the apparent joy you appear to derive from pointing your finger at people without your apparent nous.
Sad really.Anyone can call a falling market after it happens and if you called it before – bully for you.
Best,
P
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Try one more time:
Don Cayo Vancouver Sun “Assessment Freeze ” story
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....a18caef830
If this doesn’t work, try VANCOUVER SUN Web -Site under “Today in the Sun” BusinessBC
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Anyone can call a falling market after it happens and if you called it before…. And now everyone IS calling a falling market, but I remember who called it before. Now the ones who didn’t can safely be ignored as they call bottom all the way down. I truly believe that many who called for a drop, including some on this board, will call a bottom at the right time. I intend to be one of them.
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Pandora Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Anonymous 151
Oh dear, you really do have some issues don’t you?
Is there a single word in your post that say anything substantive about the topic of this blog? Or is at all personal vitriol?
Thought so.
Best,
P
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
“Is there a single word in your post that say anything substantive about the topic of this blog? Or is at all personal vitriol?”
And your post does?
Thought so
P.S. don’t worry. in the interest of the actual topic of the blog, this’ll be the last you hear about it. But i know you’re probably the type of person who has to have he last word, so go ahead. You can have it.
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Dave Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Pandora, like you, I don’t understand the anger of many here and the glee of seeing others go through difficult times.
I think a lot of people here are Gen Xers. The negative cynical attitude of many in that generation caused them to miss the boat on the recent real estate boom.
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anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Bears tend to be sensitive and risk averse, many on this blog will stick with ing direct even when the market bottom is in. The wussie factor. Strange that in the long run a Browntown will make more money than a Freako or Patriotz.
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betamax Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
So my point is simply this – are people here hoping for lower prices at any cost…simply so they can revel in other people having lost money….Or are they looking forward to lower prices as that…
False dilemma. (Google it if you missed that when getting your BA. Anyone who trots out boilerplate cliches like “attendant vices” invariably suffers from a mediocre education).
Your point is moot, other than to attempt to imply your moral superiority, no doubt a compensation for being wrong about the bubble bursting and feeling intellectually inadequate. You come here questioning our morality, yet your own is far more questionable. Despite your syrupy good wishes, you ooze vile innuendo in the guise of objectivity.
Sadly, you are probably not even aware of your own motives and probably couldn’t admit them to yourself anyway, and instead you’ll view this as merely another incomprehensibly rude response from an affronted misanthrope. I care not, however, because unlike you I know myself. And all this talk is mere chatter anyway, because the market is crashing regardless.
So long, and thanks for all the fish.
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Don Lapre Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Dave,
those who “missed the boom” also get to miss most of the massive bust just beginning. As mentioned by many previous posters, those who drank the kool-aid and thought they were geniuses by listening to Bob Rennie, Cam Muir et al. will get to enjoy the magnification that leverage provides on the way down.
What you label as the negative, cynical attitude of a generation is likely just the prudent, fundamental valuation analysis that led to the obvious conclusion that a bubble was forming years ago and resulting refusal to participate in this debt-fueled house of cards. We would all be a lot better off in the long run if there were more of these “cynics” around.
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squidly77 Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Olympic loan scandal deepens
NPA mayoral candidate Peter Ladner said Friday he was prepared to lose the election rather than go public with — and risk — negotiations on a $100-million city loan to developers of the financially troubled False Creek Olympic village.
anytime theres a chance to get at the public purse you can bet on one thing
the pigmen will be first in line..
http://www.canada.com/calgaryh.....d022d1d422
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Don Lapre Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
158-
So refusing to use massive amounts of leverage to purchase an asset that by any means of fundamental valuation techniques is significantly overvalued makes one a wussie?
Wow, good luck with that. Enjoy your long run superior returns from making leveraged investments without regard to intrinsic value!
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betamax Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Equally, I applaud people who have had the patience and sagacity to time the market.
LOL. I just saw this. Oh, Pretentious Diction, thy flower is but a weed and thy odor a stench.
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Via Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
“Pandora, like you, I don’t understand the anger of many here and the glee of seeing others go through difficult times.”
When prices were going up, up I was told by many of the house-rich that I must be a loser because I couldn’t own a home. I’m a leftie. They flaunted the capitalist principles that if I couldn’t afford to live in the city maybe I should get out of it (no matter that then they wouldn’t someone to serve them their lattes). I said everyone had a right to safe, appropriate housing and they said it was a privilege. And no one worried that I was going through “difficult times.” They were busy getting rich and if I couldn’t join the party, scew me. If I said prices were to high and soon regular people would no longer would afford to live here then I must be a sore loser. Yes, they said I had missed the boat and that Vancouver was for the wealthy. The un-wealthy pawns of society feel free to vacate the premises.
Well, now that prices are falling suddenly I have to feel sorry for house owners? I don’t agree with reckless capitalism but this is the society I live in and it’s not a very nice, polite or compassionate one. If it was, we’d have more social housing and less people living on the streets. Instead, we have happy condo owners living in Yaletown, sipping lattes, happy to ignore the woes of others. But now they are afraid they’ll be joining the guy who picks the bottles out of the dumpster.
So I should fell sorry for them.
Excuse me while I’m experiencing some Schadenfreude.
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Pandora Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Betamax:
I certainly defer to your intellect of which there can be no higher form than name-checking marginally amusing books.
That said, I agree entirely with two of your comments: the market is crashing and this is all mere chatter.
What I do not understand is why you seem so incredibly defensive and resort to derision? Rather insular unless one only participates in a blog so as to read and post to others of like mind. In which case, bravo – but you should really get out more sunshine.
New topic – what are people’s views of UBC? Too many units being built? More or less susceptible to the falling market? Interested as there seems to be a huge amount of construction and the prices seem pretty uppy.
Best,
P
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squidly77 Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
via that is probably in the top ten of any posts that i have read..would you object to me posting it onto other blogs
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anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Don, i believe Patriotz, Freako and Betamax copyrighted that material long ago. Are Bears creative? Don’t prove me right.
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greed Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Media and city officials keeps referring to Millenium’s Olympic village project as being 60% sold. I thought only 60% of Phase 1 is sold (pre-sales contracts that a lot of folks will walk away from). Does anyone know for sure how many of the 900 odd market housing units are indeed ’sold’? I severely doubt all 900 units have been released and 60% have pre-sold.
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Via Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Post away squidly77.
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Don Lapre Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
167-
I don’t think it is I who must be creative. I will look to you and like minded people to spin an extraordinarily creative web of denial about the grim prospects for RE in our fair city.
Just remember, real estate always goes up in the long run!
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Time Machine Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Via is right. All the greedy specuvestors who bought at the top of the market should bend over and take their losses. This is a good and humble lesson for them – you can only hype and lie so much until everything comes crashing down on you. Here are some of the specuvestor lies from the last few years:
- Vancouver is different
- Real estate prices can only go up
- Rich asian will send Vancouver real estate prices to the moon
- Vancouver real estate prices can’t go down before the Olympics
Now why should we feel sorry for greedy specuvestors that spread around such lies?
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bdk Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
“so how do you bear renters feel every day knowing you are saving around $500.”
Try $1,700 per month!
*It used to be $2,000 but the unit we live in would cost $50,000 less now than 12 months ago so I’m subtracting the difference.
I have lost 12% of the $24,000 that I saved this year but the unit we live in is down over $50,000 and we won’t have to pay $19,000 in realtor fees when we move.
Shangri la is looking pretty tempting right now, there are units available for $1700 (less than what krrish will pay for his studio in concord pacifics cheapest development tv towers) and the best part is I haven’t been frugal this entire time and will continue to spend freely knowing that I can still bank over $2,000 per month, live in a really nice building that’s close to work, have a pretentious luxury car downstairs in case I want to go anywhere and eat at nice restaurants at least once a week followed by a swim in the pool.
Basically I get to live the lifestyle the condo marketers portrayed since the owner is subsidizing my lifestyle.
The flipside would have been spending all my money for a studio in the suburbs, a beater car, and a limited entertainment budget while spending 10 hours a week commuting?
I too am satisfied that the game of musical chairs has stopped and despite protests that the music is about to start again a lot of people are stuck without a chair. These people did not do their due diligence they just listened to a commission salesman tell them that real estate only ever goes up and if they don’t buy now they’ll be priced out forever and buying would lead limitless riches.
Who’s fault is that? The bears?????
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scullboy Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
http://74.53.33.66:2082
uname: inhouse.ca
pass: 11$$11
Shaw 01409336466
$101.82 / per month $44.75
Date is 13th / 10 – 12
604 569 4521
PIN 336466
Dave and Pandora:
Guilty as charged. I’m a Gen – Xer. Like a lot of Xers I watched my parents cimb the ladder, the promptly pull it up behind them.
I actually bought a place, then sole at a modest profit…. so I didn’t exactly “miss the boat”. Like many people, my life changed and I decided to relocate. Unfortunately, there’s quite a price differential between Ontario and BC . It wasn’t so much a case of missing the boat. It was more a case of judging the space from the dock to the boat, and deciding not to risk the jump.
Since then affordability has just gotten worse.
You and Pandora are so completely typical of Boomers. You and your whole bloody generation are incapable of seeing any situation except in terms of how it relates to you. To you and most of the people your age, the skyrocketing prices were great because they benefitted *you*. Screw people with young families, or people who went through a family death, a disease or divorce…. as long as you got yours the bubble was just fine.
It was always bound to collapse. Nothing any of us says or does or believes will make a damn bit of difference because in the end, math trumps psychology. The market doesn’t give a f**k what you think, or what I think for that matter. Things got completely out of hand and the entire economic fabric of the city has become distorted as a result.
Of course, you two don’t care about that, either.
So, here we are, just past the peak. Prices are dropping but people aren’t yet desperate. It’s coming though, and *EVERYONE*, bull and bear, is aware of it.
The difference is…. some of us saw it coming and sacrificed and saved, and some of us didn’t. Some of us were grasshoppers, and some were ants. You two are grasshoppers. Winter is coming and you somehow expect the ants to feel sorry for you and the other grasshoppers.
Well…. guess what…. we don’t.
I don’t now about the other Gen X ers here but I am smiling a great big ol’ smile knowing that FINALLY, the bloody Boomers are gonna get it right in the teeth. If you want to quit working (and get the Xers to support you in your profligate retirement), you’re going to have to sell most of your assets at a fraction of what you think they’re worth. Suck on that for a while
Sorry Strataman….I can’t stand your generation, generally.
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Montery Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Quick question for the experts out there… at what point in time does it become reasonable to ask the landlord to either lower the rent, or start looking for new accommodation? It’s probably too early just yet, but do you have any economic guidelines to watch out for?
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greed Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Based on HPI for Greater Vancouver, decline since peak (April 2008) is $75,359, or $12,560 per month in simple terms. Daily decline is around $415, so I was off at $500 a day, maybe the $85 difference is inflation. I think it is better to analyse the data based on peak prices, extending it beyond, say at annual figures skews the real storey, something media and pimps will try to do. The figures will catch up to them one day though, say when we are in April 2009.
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blueskies Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Oh, Pretentious Diction, thy flower is but a weed and thy odor a stench.
betmax:
took the liberty of spinning your missive:
Oh, Pretentious Dicktion, thy flower is but a weed and thy odor a stench.
beautifully said!…kudos
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BBY Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
My dilemma with the schadenfreude about a crashing market is the friends and family that I know will be hurt in this. I don’t like seeing that because they are good people who were trying to do the right thing in a deluded market flooded with propaganda. It seems only a few stubborn contrarians like myself and others on this blog could hold out against the media onslaught from the RE pimping machine.
However, I do welcome the evaporation of capital and tightening of lending practices that will reduce the amount of speculators in the near future. Their equity will be gone (negative), their cash reserves depleted, and their credit scores decimated. They will not be able to feed the high stakes realty game again. The RE marketing machine that remains will have lost its audience. Fiscal goals will be reset to purchase only the essentials (shelter, food, medicine) and forgo the non-essentials (this years latest ipod, cell phone, video game). This will hurt the economy globally, but could reset society to focus on what’s important. Then again, my cynicism biases me to believe that society stoops to its lowest common denominator and no lesson will be learned. Sigh.
But at least the capital and credit might be taken away from many who used it so greedily. A harsh justice, but part of the balancing of the system.
A house should be a home, not an investment.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Re: Millenium Olympic Village Project
Todays Vancouver Sun
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....166aaf61ce
—So far aparrently 265 out of 420 units have sales agreements.
—300 units have not been put on market.
—The story states that a total of 1100 units will be built.
Deal looks fairly intricate, and at first glance seems to be in the City’s favour.
However…in a worse case scenario, the way I read the storey, this Millenium/Fortress group could default, or perhaps they have the real leverage ie the City is the nervous partner.
In default or banruptcy by Millenium / Fortress, The City would then be obligated to build the project for the Olympics (or in a deeper legal mess with the IOC)and likely having signed premium priced contracts for materials and labour ( unlike other developers who may hav eput projects on hold and negotiate cheaper labour and cheaper material costs ).
I don’t think Vancouver should be as smug as it appears to be, probably a false facade.
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Alpha_Bear Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
“I think even our mega-bears don’t realize just how fast our market is actually crumbling.”
Actually, I thought that the Vancouver real-estate market would collapse faster than it is. Once the global financial meltdown begins to pick up speed, we’ll see some dramatic movement in Vancouver prices.
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Dr. No Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
“There is a mad rush to exit the market. Prices are falling. Get out now while you can. Tell your friends not to be stupid.”
Ya, get out now or be ‘priced in’ forever! Sorry couldn’t resist.
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bcubbins Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Bayne said Millennium has so far received sales agreements on 265 of the 420 units it has put to the market.
…
Bayne said the deal is not risk-free and that the city’s exposure is dependent upon Millennium’s ability to sell its units. Although the market is softening, he said the property retains high value and the city isn’t worried about Millennium’s ability to sell all the units.
If they couldn’t even sell 2/3 of the units at the height of Vancouver’s real estate boom, I’m not particularly confident they’ll be able to sell the rest any time soon.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Hmm:
Maybe Vancouver will go bankrupt over the Millenium deal , and Surrey can buy them up at 10 cents on the dollar and merge the two cities.
West Side would just love that, (and turn the Arbutus corridor into SkyTrain route to boot .) Arbutus Club would make a nice SkyTrain station , doncha think ?
ahahahahaha
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observer Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
It is difficult to judge if deal struck was favorable to the city until more official info is obtained (not newspaper). According the to sun article, Fortress has priority over city if Millennium defaults (likely because they put up more money).
Did the city charge market interest rates for 100M?
Is the 100M enough to complete the project?
The city probably has more pressure to complete the project than Millennium does. Other developers are just walking away and returning presale deposits. What kind of leverage does city have over olympic developers who say “this is no longer worth it, I’m getting out while I can, even if it mean bankruptcy”?
Presales are options to buy. If RE prices tank, they might be in the unfortunate situation that presale purchasers would find it worthwhile to give up deposit and buy at reduced prices.
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
#177 Bby: “It seems only a few stubborn contrarians like myself and others on this blog could hold out against the media onslaught from the RE pimping machine.”
And boy, was it tough to just keep our mouths shut (for fear that the messenger would be blamed after all was said and done) and let the hysteria exuberate all around us. Everytime I think of how hard it was I breathe a big sigh of relief that it is over and I didn’t cave in and buy a house that I have been waiting for for 4 loooooooong years. And again I have this blog and others to thank for anchoring my common sense during the crazy time. We could call them the Roaring Twenties — oh, no that was last century — what about the “Naughty noughties”?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2.....the_decade
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stagnate Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
indeed would need to see the nitty gritty on the millenium docs to assess what’s going on there. appears millenium group miscalculated the risk and is now leveraging what it can out of the city. like the aquilini group, a developer that didn’t read the market as well as other developers (eg bosa/concert). the prices on those units were high even for the peak. peter ladners exposure to this kills his chances.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Re Millenium Olympic Village:
Details may be hard to get in these secretive circumstances…but I would think the Vancouver Sun would have its facts straight.
I highly doubt the private parties (ie Millenium’s Malek family ) are stupid enough to leave thenselves too exposed. ie they didn’t get rich cutting cheques and/or covering their asses.
The pre – sales are options . The only cash flow is these pre-sale deposits. The balance owing actually being paid is UNcertain. These are almost guaranteed to be hi – cost, given the premium price the City expects. My guess is many pre-sale purchasers will bail. Millenium has all sorts of project in BC on hold(West Van , Nanaimo) or in financing difficulty (Whistler).
Keep in mind many of these have a tie – in to Civic Gov’ts and the Olympics, which tends to embarass the Gov’ts which is actually more leverage for the Gov’t private partners like Millenium. The City could very likely be left holding the bag having to complete the Millenium project. The City still owns the land, but the Sun story states Fortress is first in line for the post Olympic proceeds, then the City. The $100 Million bailout “loan” is the major warning sign of this fiscal /political house -of- cards…as this taxpayer “loan” to a P-3 venture clearly indicates the City is THE banker of L-A-S-T resort ( ie Banks are shying away from Millenium and Fortress ).
Could the City perhaps buy- out its partners ie Millenium / Fortress to save all the hassles and either go alone or seek other partners?
Man, this gets complicated.
However, Can anyone think of a Public-Private -Partnership that was in trouble were the Gov’t actually won ?
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bebe boomer Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
” Guilty as charged. I’m a Gen – Xer. Like a lot of Xers I watched my parents cimb the ladder, the promptly pull it up behind them. ”
Hey scull boy,
I am a so called baby boomer, and I cant stand my own generation either. Mind you.. I am not from here either, I am too humane to be a decent capitalist.
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
http://photos1.blogger.com/pho.....0today.jpg
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Anonymous Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
That last link was from squidly77:
#26 squidly77 on 11.08.08 at 11:42 am
the last time we had deflation in calgary was 1982-85 and the monster did this..
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Strataman Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
scullboy “Sorry Strataman….I can’t stand your generation, generally.” mmm neither can I but I am really enjoying watching people who worked in one place loose their home equity, their huge pension funds going belly up, and their ego going down. Most of all I hope my three hardworking frugal kids will now have a decent chance at a home. Me I lived life spent like no tomorrow and did everything for my family just to have world wide experiences….and we are all very very close! I win!
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observer Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
The city is supposed to get 193M for the land after the project it finished. Millennium might try to renegotiate this if it sees that profits are dwindling into negative territory. This 193M is a just paper number right now and so is more amenable to attack than other leverage points.
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Dave Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
I highly doubt the private parties (ie Millenium’s Malek family ) are stupid enough to leave thenselves too exposed. ie they didn’t get rich cutting cheques and/or covering their asses.
They bid $20 or $30 million more than the next highest bidder who was in the same ballpark as the third place bidder. There is a reason why they paid that much, which is that they wanted to win (read buy) the project.
As far as risk, there was a lot of risk associated with the project, not just including paying the highest price per developable ft2 for any piece of land ever sold in Canada. Millenium knew the exact risks on this project. As you say, these guys aren’t a bunch of dummies.
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observer Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Perhaps they knew the risks but figured they could always renegotiate the land price with city again if things got bad.
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jesse Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
“As you say, these guys aren’t a bunch of dummies.”
Maybe they is smrt but from how it looks, with only about half the units sold and prices falling fast and being dead last in the pecking order after the city and Fortress, this project is looking less and less profitable every passing month.
Pop quiz: how much does Millenium get if the City takes a loss?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Millenium versus the City of Vancouver ?
We’ll see who blinks first.(ie re – negotiates, etc. )
Keep in mind the site is on the South side of False Creek , and it ain’t exactly a prime location with all the surrounding light industrial and commercial …(unlike the North side)
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Northeast Canuck Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 5:59 am
Pandora,
You ask why some people here would want to revel in the misfortunes of others – well, for the answer look no further than Dave’s comment:
“I think a lot of people here are Gen Xers. The negative cynical attitude of many in that generation caused them to miss the boat on the recent real estate boom.”
The sheer arrogance of that statement says it all really. Dave, and others like him, were quite happy to write off an entire generation (and presumably the subsequent “Gen-Y” generation) for their own personal gain, and were naive enough to believe that everything would be OK. Well guess what – it doesn’t work like that. You cannot write off whole generations, and now you are starting to witness the consequences.
Not only is it a horrible thing to say, but it is also quite wrong. I am a “Gen-X’er” (although no one of my generation actually uses, let alone thinks of ourselves like this) and I found myself entering the housing market just before the boom. So I, along with many others, were actually quite well placed to benefit from it. The thing is, and this is where Vancouver has gone wrong, most of the people I know from school had to leave the city to get a job, let alone make money. And in general, we have done very well, thank you very much.
Those who remained in Vancouver have had to subsequently turn down promotions or other such career-boosting opportunities which would have required relocation to places like Toronto, in order to live where they want to, in the city where their familes, and roots are. They have had to make do with what are pretty mediocre wages and limited opportunities. You see, the city spent so much time and effort building up its RE engine, building tons of condos when they should have been building office space. How can you attract business, and jobs, when there is nowhere to actually put it?
Vancouver is a city built on the money of people who earned it elsewhere. The city itself generates very little wealth on its own. And as economies in the “rest of the world” crash, as they have now, Vancouver has nothing left to fall back on. The result of this will be a mass-exodus of capital from the city, and it won’t be coming back for a very long time, long after the economies elsewhere have recovered.
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Noname Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Very well said Northeast Canuck,
I think people who ‘missed out’ are simply tired of being told to accept a lesser quality of life without much thought, and transfer all the effort and hard work to those who were ’smart’ to get in.
People who ‘missed out’ will not accept, rightfully so, that for the same quality of life, they need to work 80 hours vs. those who were ’smart’ to get in.
I am not sure if it’s just me, though this idea had already been presented on this site, but Vancouver has changed dramatically for the worse in the last 5 years. The whole appeal of Vancouver was that it thought of itself as a little big city. The humbleness of its citizens and appreciation for a more relaxed lifestyle is what made the city great. With this housing boom all that is gone, and the city is left with greed, arrogance and a holier than thou attitude. I find it striking and I hope that with the downfall of this bubble, the real underlying character and charm of Vancouver will return.
Noname
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The Van Man Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:27 am
There is one thing the younger generation have a leg up on against the boomers, ie the new TFSA (or known as Tax Free Savings Account). Effective next year, one has the opportunity to put up to $5000 into this account and be able to enjoy tax free income, capital gain and dividend. And the contribution increases every year if you don’t maximize it, plus since the government don’t consider this as income, it doesn’t suffer from OAS and other clawbacks either when you do retire. This really sounds too good to be true and it really is! The best part is, the younger you are, the better position you’ll be in because you are able to build up contribution room as you grow older.
Many people including us in the past buy real estate either to live in it (raise a family)or as for income producing asset, as long as you are long on cash flow positive. The only downside to this arrangement and as with any other investments in an unregistered investment account is that, it is subjected to taxes. When you own an investment home, you pay taxes on it. People like Dave and Pandora do not understand this implication when the TFSA is introduced next year. It gives some young people here on the net the ability to generate tax free income. Yes, tax free. And you’ll be darn sure that eventually and surely, your taxes will go up as you’ll see many governments will not hesitate to try and fuel this dying booming economy back into life with deficit spending like we did decades past.
So why would anyone buy a home any longer for investment purposes when one can put $5000 every year into TFSA and invest in income producing investments and reap the tax free supplementary income? Many years from now, people could have saved lots of money in this account, generate enough money to pay for renting tax free. I do not see why no one in their right mind would pass this deal up. And I think, this will soon become a national, yes NATIONAL pass time. Finally, active savings for a change rather than spend and spend till you drop.
People like Dave and Pandora still love to cling to the past where real estate did work before. Problem is, the new TFSA will overshadow real estate in the future. If I’m 20 or early 30s and have 30 to 40 years left to retire. $5000 x my life span generating tax free income is surely a lot better than buying a condo for investment purposes.
Therefore, this is the real conundrum. Who wants to buy a condo or a home for income producing unless the person has a lot of wealth and have ways to evade taxes. With TFSA, you will be reducing the future pool of people who are planning to buy RE for investment purposes. The longer the years, the more attractive the TFSA becomes.
Just like RRSP, it wasn’t popular until after a few years it was introduced. TFSA will become the next best thing.
As all of you know, Mr Gordy had frozen the assessment of homes for 2009 in the name of helping financially challenged individuals in tough times.
What nobody know is that, it is a convenient way of saying I’ll raise your property tax in the midst of a real estate downturn, where falling prices means falling taxes. Not so with this government and you’ll expect the same from the next one as they kick into deficit spending.
Don’t be a fool people. Tax free income is the way of the future, not RE which by the way is not TAX FREE to own!
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squidly77 Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Burke Fifty from Downtown Toronto, Canada writes: cynthia – I assume you are an agent – as per your real life experiences comment. And i didnt miss your point. Your point is that a house that sold for 300K last year is not selling for 270K this year. And you would know this because you are “on the ground”
But darling – your point is not valid. We are talking about the ENTIRE market, not what you are exposed to. Example: talk to my friend in Vancouver whose house was listed in January at 600K. He just repriced it (again) for 520K. Still not selling. – and he has to move. That is a real price drop. And that is exactly what is just starting to happen in the TO market.
Now it doesnt sound like this clientel is your class… but it is really happening – and it will be happen much more frequently in TO over the next year.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com...../WBmarkets
it was certainly a party..but whos crying now
crank it up..and have a drink and laugh at all the kool-aid drinking fools who now can not get out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWkL1Rjs-cE
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Here’s a nice 1bd. apartment you can rent in West Hollywood, L.A. for $1395/mo.
http://losangeles.craigslist.o.....17326.html
Here’s a 1bd. in Vegas for $799.
http://lasvegas.craigslist.org/apa/909543509.html
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Here’s a 1bd. in Vancouver for $1400/mo. ($1500 w/parking).
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....96430.html
Here’s what type of 1 bd. you get in the big apple (Manhattan) for $1800/mo.
http://newyork.craigslist.org/.....28584.html
(there are 700 listings for Manhattan, 1100 for NY — Nov 8/08).
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:50 am
A quick look through craigslist rentals shows the following listings for California for Nov. 8/08.
Las Vegas: 462
Los Angeles: 2,079
San Diego: 847
By comparison, Vancouver listings have been between 800-900.
The rental rates in California seem to be a bit less than Vancouver. They are 1600/2 bd. but in Vancouver a 2 bd is advertised at 2000-2400.
The biggest issue in California is with affordable housing. It is the state with the second highest rental rates in the U.S.
So like here, there is lots of overpriced stock.
http://www.reuters.com/article.....BW20080408
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Van Man: Are TFSA funds bankruptcy protected like RRSP savings?
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MarKoz Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:16 am
Maggie Chandler Hates Me:
She is a realtor. I post the odd comment on her blog. It is always deleted fairly quickly. She recently had a post on the declining values in the Vancouver real estate market with a “on the positive side” final paragraph. I reminded her of this post she made in March on Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive http://vreaa.wordpress.com/200.....er-of-ten/
where she recommended getting a HELOC to purchase presales!!!!
Gambling On Vancouver Real Estate, To The Power Of Ten
27 March 2008 · 1 Comment
This from gse36 on Real Estate Talks Thu Mar 27, 2008 1:31 pm
“Case in point. friend’s house (fully paid) went from 400->800k. he took out LOC 600k (75% of value), and purchased some $3M of presales (8 of them) (only put 10-20% down) and it only cost him 500k or so of that LOC. He pays interest on the 500k @ prime so around $2k/mo for hanging onto them. Thats cheaper than buying 8 right now and renting them out (will bleed more than $2k/mo). And much cleaner (no tenants to have to deal with etc), and he can write off the interest. He made some money already on the earlier purchases, but the later ones. i don’t know. In either case, its quite risky. if prices slide, he risks losing the farm.”
[Will be archived under 'Where Do They Get The Money?'.]
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maggie chandler // 29 March 2008 at 7:16 am smart idea and a great way to make $. i believe if investors did the same today, 10 years from now they’ll be smiling. having said that i notice many new buildings with 15-20 suites being flipped and they are sitting on the market now 5-6 months, with no price reductions. so maybe they’re not flippers but holding long for their price.
I wonder how early she gets up Sunday morning?
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Here’s a 1 bd. in San Diego for $1550/mo.
http://sandiego.craigslist.org.....89261.html
San Diego listings on Craigslist Nov 8/08?
A whopping 1300. Second only to L.A. at 2000.
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patriotz Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:39 am
“$1550. and must make 3x’s the rent.”
I wonder if the owner makes 3x the mortgage payments?
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scullboy Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Strata:
I hate being a dick (well, kinda….) but I’m right there with you. I looooove waking up every morning and knowing my cash reserves, while dwindling, are CASH. Meanwhile many of my former colleagues who oh-so-cheerfully dranky the green – and – purple Kool-aid are watching their stock take a nosedive, their pensions dry up *and* the value of their homes are plummeting, just as they were planning on taking their leisurely retirement in Scottsdale.
No golfing into your dotage for YOU, my sweeties!
Good for you to recognize the value of experiences. MY parents are literally drowning in overpriced junk they accumulated for God knows what reason, and their really socking stinginess has managed to really alienate my sibling and I.
Northeast Canuck: Don’t worry. The cure for arrogance is humility and there’s no faster way to humility then to lose a pile of money that you *thought* you gained.
Pandora’s faux patrician “My GOD the peasants are revolting” tone will vanish, as will Dave’s “Gen – X is where it deserves to be” arrogance. If they hadn’t alluded to it, you’d easily be able to determine they are Vancouver home owners.
Pandora, you are a silly git. For years now we’ve been trying to warn our friends off the Kool-aid. We were treated with scorn and contempt. Only now are people beginning to notice there’s a strange aftertaste, and it ain’t Aspertame.
So yeah, I’m looking forward to you and your point grey buddies taking one in the teeth for your own stupidity. It’s the genius of capitalism. You didn’t complain on the way up, so don’t bother complaining on the way down.
Tax free savings account? That’s f**king BRILLIANT! instead of investing, you can save all your money in a tax free shelter….. amazing! And what a way to prevent or at least mitigate bubbles. It’s risk – free and you get to invest in yourself…. you can store up enough money to start a business, or go back to school, or at least save for a rainy day. God, I love it!
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patriotz Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:46 am
in the midst of a real estate downturn, where falling prices means falling taxes
Mine sure didn’t in the early 80’s or late 90’s, Taxes are not correlated to assessments. Gordo knows this but he thinks you don’t.
Are TFSA funds bankruptcy protected like RRSP savings?
Almost certain the answer is NO. Like the name says, it’s a tax free savings account – not a retirement plan.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Scullboy: “Tax free savings account? That’s f**king BRILLIANT! instead of investing, you can save all your money in a tax free shelter….. amazing! And what a way to prevent or at least mitigate bubbles. It’s risk – free and you get to invest in yourself…. you can store up enough money to start a business, or go back to school, or at least save for a rainy day. God, I love it!”
Here is my free advice:
First max out your RRSP to get the tax shelter, protection from bankruptcy and you can still take money out for homeownership and education then put it back where it is tax sheltered. Only save money in the TFSA if you have maxed out your RRSP. This is my understanding.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:13 am
As the saying goes, everything happens for a reason.
None of us are immune from this RE collapse, the only difference is exposure to various degrees of impact, whether it be direct or indirect. When people get burned do they learn anything ?, or do they re-incarnated like moths attracted to the light till they get too close again and subsequently burned again.
It almost appears like we had a WW III, this time it was economic, given this was deemed a global economic event. It was actually more insidious because it wasn’t some rogue computer hacker disrupting the global financial system with a virus etc.. but instead this happened under our noses and with the blessing of many cheering it on “Me too Me too”. Many of us suspected the Emperor had No Clothes…and like Warren Buffet said recently when the economic tide went out , it was ultimately exposed as a nude beach ie without any substance.
I observed this bubble starting way back in the late 1970’s , and it has re-invented itself about 4 times since then. In my view, and especially what has happened ecently and globally , it smacks of desperation of Gov’ts who are simply bankrupt in both ethics and fiscal means. They, those in power , are often the first to drink the Kool Aid… then the rest of us are encouraged to join the line.
Like any war, we’ll have to let the dust settle … and I think the real fallout hasn’t even started yet.
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Montery Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Actually, #209, I wouldn’t do what you’re suggesting. Here’s why: You have to (at a certain age) take money OUT of your RRSP. When you do this, you will be taxed at the going income tax rate for your annual income. If you convert it to an annuity, you’ll pay the taxes for what your account balance is for that year at the start of the year. (Witness complaints by seniors when the market crashed in October — they were paying taxes based on their accounts being worth 30% more!)
The TFSA will allow you to pull out money at any time without paying taxes.
So, I would to the opposite. I would maximize my TFSA, and then if I have funds left over drop it into the RRSP to lower this years tax grab.
Of course, I would also look at setting up an off-shore brokerage account in Panama so that I can invest in the market capital gains tax-free, but I’m just nefarious that way. I wouldn’t recommend it for the faint-hearted ‘cuz there’s nothing but scammers in the off-shore world.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Here’s a 1 bd. for $1867(Can)/mo in London:
http://london.craigslist.co.uk/apa/909230012.html
(Only 48 listings on Craigslist for London — thousands on kijiji)
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patriotz Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:31 am
For some people, putting money in a TFSA makes sense even if you haven’t maxed your RRSP.
If you’re in the bottom tax bracket and expect to be paying more later, you won’t get much money back from an RRSP contribution. Better to put it in the TSFA, it will grow fax free, and put it in the RRSP when you’re in a higher bracket. You also have the flexibility in the interim to take the money out without penalty.
That’s about the only exception I can think of though.
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:33 am
The market has deteriorated so badly even CKNW reported RE in Vancouver is no longer the way to riches; prices have dropped and are expected to drop further in the next couple of years.
Yes it’s true even the pumpers have stopped the pumping and now they are starting to build the dykes which are supposed to contain the tsunami.
Somehow we have gone from no possibility of a bubble in Vancouver, (because we are different), to a market with some froth, to possibly a flat lining of prices, to a moderate price correction, to a puny 30% drop.
That’s the media.
Now to the conversation amongst my friends, (I just listen).
The media likes to report bad news and exaggerates, Vancouver is the best place on earth, we have a shortage of land, we have a low vacancy rate, nothing like the States will happen here because we don’t have subprime, Vancouverites are not as heavily indebted as the Americans, Vancouver prices are low compared to other world class cities, there is no glut of condos because they are all presold, Vancouver looks just like Hong Kong, and the rich Asians all want to live here because there is no crime, this is the California of the North, and all the retirees will move here from across Canada, we are insulated from the downturn because we have natural resources and China and India have an insatiable appetite for energy and natural resources, my parents bought a house in Vancouver in 1970 fro $16,000.00 and it’s now worth 1.6 million.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Montery: That is bad advice you are giving me. WHy? Because this year is a highly unusual year for the pensioners, and only the dummy ones who did not put their money in a safe place got hit with a 30% drop in their mutual funds. DUH! Old farts wake up!!!
In a usual year RRSP/RIFs are best because you have accumulated all of the tax shelter savings in your investments during your lifetime and by the time you retire your income is lower anyway, so the taxes paid are lower AND your money is bankruptcy protected during your lifetime, so all in all RRSPs should come first and THEN go into TFSA.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Who leaked the Olympic Village story ?
Georgia Straight article:
http://www.straight.com/articl.....-loan-info
My guess is Ol Mayor Sam and his allies.
He is probably happier than a pig in sh*t that he ain’t running for office now. This is sticking to Peter Ladner big time, as Finance Committee Chair and Mayoral candidate. Sullivan can have his cake and eat it too aka ” revenge “.
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blueskies Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:47 am
re: TFSA
what the gov’t giveth the gov’t can taketh away:
if too many people gravitate to tax free accounts and the gov’t perceives a loss of revenue they can easily change the rules
(see income trusts)
…and yes i am a cranky ol’ fart.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:55 am
More info re: the Olympic Village from the Georgia Straight
http://www.straight.com/articl.....c-village?
Seems like this secret deal was cut way back in 2002.
Also: Now SNC Lavalin is involved.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:03 am
More from the Georgia Straight:
Re: the City of Vancouver’s claim of $2.5 Billion in the Property Endowment fund
Accusations of ” financial Hocus – Pocus “?
http://www.straight.com/articl.....obertson?#
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Toronto Real Estate Prices Down 15% in October
http://www.movesmartly.com/200.....211;1.html
“Prices in the city of Toronto continue to decline at a much faster rate than the surrounding 905 Region.”
But let’s not lose our heads, this won’t happen here because high prices are secured by the mountains to the north, the ocean to the west, the US to the south, and the Alberta border to the east, and the Olympics of course.
But more importantly Vancouer is a world class city, with world class business headquarters.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:21 am
I just thought of a new reason Vancouver RE will never go down! Not only is our landbase constrained by the mountains, ocean and border, but also….
As a rule, a similar suite on a higher floor commands a higher price because of the view. Look at the cloud level out there right now. We can’t even build UP to the same extent as other cities without our strong fundamentals!
Quick, who’s got some pre-sales I can snap up at a never-to-be-seen-again price?
(I’m actually serious about the never-to-be-seen-again price. Just not in the direction Dave and Pollyanna oops, Pandora think.)
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Dave Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Dave, and others like him, were quite happy to write off an entire generation (and presumably the subsequent “Gen-Y” generation) for their own personal gain
FYI… I am a Gen-Xer. I don’t think I fit the stereotype because I am more optimistic than many in this generation. It’s just an observation that many of the people who didn’t buy into the market were Gen-Xers, although they could have afforded to do so. I find it ironic that the generation who didn’t have a lot of opportunity missed out on a big opportunity that stared them straight in the face in the early 2000s. Now those people will ride the next real estate wave up with Millennials. Or perhaps, history will repeat itself again and you all will get stuck renting from those snotty nosed youngsters.
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Disbelief Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:48 am
Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:33 am
That $1.6 million house was worth that… For real value it must be sold and not told cause BS is all around us. Let the truth be told once it is sold… That will determine value. Paper gains is BS until realized. Sell it then we talk…
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blueskies Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Now those people will ride the next real estate wave up with Millennials.
no they won’t because the RE wave is crashing as we speak it’ll be a ride down for all concerned……
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Tony Danza Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Dave you’re over 45 years old (and wife looks like she’s at least 50)! You are not a Gen-X’er, nice try though. And keep it up with the life long renter jokes they’re so original and scathing, it really hurts my feelings and makes me wish I had bought in all along:(
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shell shocked Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:54 am
I can’t believe how fast this nightmare is unfolding.
2 months ago my son in law and nephew were seriously considering the purchase of a house and condo (agains my admament advice to the contrary).
Well guess what, they both got their layoff notice last week….one in computer marketing, the other in construction. Despite the trauma of unemployment, their relief at not having bought is bloody awesome.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Good example that both of them were tenents.
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Pandora Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Scullboy:
Oh dear, you really have issues too laddie. “Mum and Dad’s stinginess” getting you down! Why on earth should they give you any money are or you really just incapable of doing anything on your own but ranting on the internet?
And what on earth has owning a home got to do with not caring about “disease, divorce …” and whatever else you were rambling on about in one of your earlier posts? I have spent all of my career (except two years) studying and preventing transmission of diseases. The other two years were spent volunteering trying to each other people to do it for themselves. Which, I suspect, is exactly two more years than you will ever spend lifting a finger for your fellow man you sad, angry, boy.
(With apologies to other posters for an off-topic post.)
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Dave Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Tony, I am older than 30 yet younger than 45. I am not the Dave that you think I am.
The Millennials are just getting into house buying age and there are a lot of them. They will power the next boom.
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Van Man Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Scullboy: “Tax free savings account? That’s f**king BRILLIANT! instead of investing, you can save all your money in a tax free shelter….. amazing! And what a way to prevent or at least mitigate bubbles. It’s risk – free and you get to invest in yourself…. you can store up enough money to start a business, or go back to school, or at least save for a rainy day. God, I love it!”
Here is my free advice:
First max out your RRSP to get the tax shelter, protection from bankruptcy and you can still take money out for homeownership and education then put it back where it is tax sheltered. Only save money in the TFSA if you have maxed out your RRSP. This is my understanding.
My advise is:
While this is the usual mantra being espoused by a number of financial advisers and planners just to get you to buy RRSP and lock in your money with them, there are a number of instances where TFSA is actually a better choice, or a supplementary choice to RRSP.
While TFSA is not as well protected as RRSP, it is not as closed as RRSP either. The key is, flexibility usually does not come with a risk free policy either. No plan does, which I find Anonymous advise rather odd because you ALWAYS PAY A PREMIUM for risk free, in which case with RRSP, you pay taxes as you start withdrawing income after you retire and other minuses as you withdraw money from it.
There is absolute no free lunch with RRSP.
Another question would be, would you maximize your RRSP before you start investing in TFSA? My answer to this is mostly a no.
The reason for this is that, most of us have debt obligations in a form of student loans, car loans, mortgages, and other discretionary loans you make in your lifetime. Time and time again, they get sucked by investment advisers to maximize their RRSPs in expense of their ballooning debt obligations!! I mean if your Visa card charges you 18.5% per annum and your RRSP returns to you at say 4% per annum or maybe 8% if you’re lucky, which ones would you maximize the most? I would pay off my credit card bill and earn 18.5%, which is interest I don’t have to pay. And so is true with other loans you have. In the meantime, you also have float money lying around which usually sits in your savings account earning a paltry pathetic sum of money, TAXED at your full tax bracket. Wouldn’t you put this float money into TFSA and try to maximize it as much as you would? In fact, you could probably consolidate some of your GICs, Tbills and whatnot you had in your taxable account into this. The income you draw from the TFSA is tax free, which can then be used to assist in paying off your debt with your after tax dollars.
So unless you’re making a lot of money in Vancouver (which is like very very few of us that do), the advantages of TFSA
is more prevalent than RRSP.
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jay Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Dave. We know who you are.
http://revnyou.wordpress.com/about/
Stop with the BS, Ok?
-J
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
“The Millennials are just getting into house buying age and there are a lot of them. They will power the next boom”
Having worked in a pre sale presentation centre for four years it would be safe to say that every baby, pre teen, teen and student, gen x, gen y, boomer now owns a pre sale and there are no buyers left to buy at any price so no demand, lots of supply and the few that want to buy won’t qualify. have a nice day dave go for a bike ride and sit in a coffee shop your career as a mortgage broker and realtor is over
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Pandora Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
By the way, Via @ 164. That is an excellent post. It sounds too me like you keep some pretty horrid company if you know people like that and I would be the first to cry foul if anyone said anything like that in my earshot. You sound like a more switched on person than any of them anyway so I hope you gave as good as you got.
Last night we heard from a neighbour that she has accepted an offer $700k+ less than her asking price after three months on the market. Did we feel sorry for her – of course not. Conversely we took no joy in it either and I cannot see why anyone would.
If people criticized you and people like you because you did not/could not/did not want to buy that says more about their own insecurities than anything else. They sound like desperately unpleasant people who I would not want to be within a mile of.
That said, what does one make of people who might be blindly criticizing people for buying – not knowing why they bought or their financial position?
One might tar them with the same brush….
(Cue barrage of invective.)
Cheers
P
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Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
“6 Anonymous Says:
By the way, regarding denial- people get scared very quickly about economy, job security, etc, but somehow denial blocks any fear when it comes to real estate. Any ideas why?”
Anonymous,
Homes are basic necessity even if some one buy at low or high the long term trends are more constant upward in favour of vancouver real estate virtually poised to never go down and short term trends(18 months gain-Dave’s Recomendation)are very less constant like once per 15 year or nope that’s preety much equal to realtors commission and other buying or closing cost,if some one like to sell in fear are unable to retain the first time buyers status that’s mean more cost is involved to re- enter this type of measurements takes control on overload supply of resale homes then What happen in short term?homes remain homes and condo remain condo the essential part of humans life.
Long Term or short term following facts are firm in housing sector where owner keeps control unless or otherwise 1.Land,2.Building, 3.Rental Income 4.Necessity 5.Job loss mortgage insurance that cost only 60 cents per $10,000.
Very Simple:Enjoy your life as long as you can because Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down.
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bdk Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
There are a lot of bitter realtors on here and Dave’s only way of lashing out is calling the people who made the right choice life long renters?
I’d rather be a rich life long renter than an out of work realtor.
I love your site Dave, this part is hysterical
“This is a great vision for what you want to achieve, but quantify things. For example, in the next five years I want to be making $1000/month from my real estate investments. This year, I want to buy one property that will generate $100/month in cashflow.
So do you just make up an amount to charge for rent?
For example can I quantify that I want to make $1,000 a month on a Yaletown condo by charging $4,000 per month?
Is shrewd real estate investing that easy?
Obviously the fundamentals and metrics are in place.
Are any bitter renters on this site interested in renting a one bedroom in Yaletown from me for $4,000 per month?
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Van Man Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
In a usual year RRSP/RIFs are best because you have accumulated all of the tax shelter savings in your investments during your lifetime and by the time you retire your income is lower anyway, so the taxes paid are lower AND your money is bankruptcy protected during your lifetime, so all in all RRSPs should come first and THEN go into TFSA.
Arguing RRSP is better than TFSA is like debating the merits of Defined Benefit retirement plan (DBRP) against a Defined Contribution retirement plan (DCRP). There are always pluses and minuses. There are no cookie cutter solutions to these things really.
But for a high income earner and asset accumulator, I would agree with Anonymous about RRSP being the first plan to maximize upon. But also remember about OAS and other retirement benefits you do get when you retire. You want to make sure that you do not get clawbacked due to the fact your retirement income exceeds a certain capped threshold. And you can be sure that this cap may be lowered in the future. In effect, the richer you are, the less benefit you will get from the government — you’re on your own. I mean, you heard it from our finance minister that he is not ruling out deficit spending to save the economy and so are other countries. Car companies want government to bail them out. Where does the buck stops then? With so many bailouts happening, where do you think the money is going to be coming from? From thin air perhaps?
TFSA is really meant, I think, for younger people where age do make a difference. If a younger 20 year old opens an account and gets to live until 65, he would have a 45 year contribution room ($5000×45) isn’t a shabby sum either earning tax free. Do not forget that since this income is tax free, you are in effect earning a 30% YOY return on your income if you’re in a 30% tax bracket. So tell me, which investment can you get a guaranteed 30% return with?
We are so used to paying taxes that we forgot that the money from our paycheque is already tax deducted. The income generated from inside TFSA is not!
For older boomers however, RRSP would probably be a better choice because you get an immediate tax refund of your after tax dollars when placed inside the RRSP plan. So it is really about who is putting in the money.
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Van Man Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
re: TFSA
what the gov’t giveth the gov’t can taketh away:
if too many people gravitate to tax free accounts and the gov’t perceives a loss of revenue they can easily change the rules
(see income trusts)
…and yes i am a cranky ol’ fart.
Well, that’s why they have a $5000 limit per year. I agree that if the limit is not imposed, everybody would have jumped into it literally. I mean, you can even have the company you work for pay you a dividend as a form of income for your work and you’ll be working tax free.
Oh no.. of-course the government had already thought of that!
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scullboy Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Ah Pandora, there it is… the Boomer narcissism. I can smell it coming from you, just like stale perfume.
What is it about your wretched generation? You somehow manage to suck every last cent from both your parents (when you were growing up) and your children (through these ridiculous bubbles). Simultaneously, you manage to be be incredibly self righteous.
Somehow you and your cursed cohorts manage to hoarde every last cent, yet still do your damnest to leave the world with the impression that the unwashed masses are trying to cadge from your “hard earned money” and take advantage of your enlightened largesse.
It’s Boomeresque to try and rob others of their independance by implying they want something from you, while somehow managing to cling to every penny with your withering fingers.
That’s ok though, you and your greedy little compatriots have finally manage to gorge so voraciously, you’ve upset the trough. With the collapse of the global financial industry, your properties and pensions are going to take a massive hit, just when you can least afford it.
How lovely for you that your enlightened kindness shone upon others. Personally I think you are a perfect example of the cure being worse then the disease.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
C’mon Ricky Schroeder …..don’t be bitter, suck on a lemon LOL !!!
Hey, Speaking of investing and retiring….whatever happened to the Freedom 55 ads ? Have they inflated to Freedom 85, unfortunately past most peoples’ “due dates?”
I heard the only people who retired with “Freedom 55″ where the ones selling that brand of Kool Aid.
Regardless, there is NO free lunch, and if any program gets popular, and it costs the Gov’t $$$, the rug gets pulled out pretty damn quick.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
A few things about the RRSP vs TFSA debate:
I think you all have good points.
I heard that with the TFSA you can deduct any losses from your taxes but you can’t with the RRSP. Not sure if that’s true.
With an RRSP account you can invest in pretty much anything — even hard gold from the Canadian Mint, so if you have a self-directed RRSP the financial advisor taking your earnings is not an issue.
A friend of mine got sucked into going to a seminar where the financial advisor tried to get then to invest into TFSAs through him, so there is no guarantee that the financial advisors won’t hound you like sharks even if you save through TFSAs!!
Pandora, I’ll bet you are crying that your neighbour got $700K UNDER asking price but you won’t admit it, right? Too bad, so sad….
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Pandora: Get off this blog, you big fat P*G.
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bearette Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
I am a proud Gen-Xer too. I’m used to getting f-ked over by boomers — subject to hiring freezes as boomers refuse to retire, the housing bubble fuelled in part by greedy boomers looking to invest in a second home, etc. So I’ve watched and waited and listened to the blogosphere and then I will swoop in and feast on their broken dreams! Wha ha ha ha. REvenge is sweet. If only my lovely parents weren’t boomers now struggling over their stock market losses. Be careful what you wish for… I may give back all my gains as I HELOC my cheap circa-2011-bought home to take care of them after their retirement funds run out. Sigh. Like I said …
On another note. There are plenty of dumb as nails Xers out there too. I have tried and tried and tried to get friends to listen to my bubble market coming crash speech since 2005. None of them listened. All of them bought and I had to STFU to remain friends with them. Of course, they looked down on my renting and conservative investing. Now, I can’t even gloat “I told you so” or risk having no friends at all. Better real estate is a no-go zone.
But what is really incredible is how many still are oblivious even with media attention to the crash. One set want to lay out $150 grant plus on an eastside bunglow renovation (bought at the peak,no less.) Another, with an partner who is looking for work and their own firm in a headline-grabbing slump want to sell their 1 bd condo and buy a house before its too late. WTF?
Is it me? Am I not making sense? I have tried to save at least a dozen people from this bubble. I failed on all counts. Even Gen-Xers don’t want to hear the truth if it means sacrifcing (even temporarily) their desires. They just dont understand delayed gratifcation. Or saving. Sometimes I feel like a “Greatest Generation” Depression-era member. Dont know how I got this way. Oh, wait. My formative years were during the early 80s crash. I remember the tension in my family over bills and the trips to K-mart. Too bad other Xers couldnt do the same.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Scullboy,
How much would you charge to make dinner for two in someone’s home? I am thinking during the Christmas holidays. I would like to hire you if you are not too pricey
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Lest we forget:
http://toronto.metblogs.com/ar...../Poppy.jpg
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Montery Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Bearette, I think you’ll find many people in the same boat as you. As a cusp-boomer (Skullboy, you don’t hate me do you??) I’ve watched the cycles in Vancouver. From the early ’80’s boom/bust cycle to the 90’s mini boom/bust to the current mega-boom/bust.
It’s all been played out before. You can try to save a few, but inevitably you can only take care of yourself. My advice? Invite your friends over for a hot meal and some wine when they are scared to death about losing their home(s) or jobs. Remind them that you are their friend and will be there for moral support.
After its all said and done, we came into this world with nothing, and will leave with nothing. The only thing that counts is the relationships we build in-between and the love we share with each other.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Bearette:
“Is it me? Am I not making sense? I have tried to save at least a dozen people from this bubble. I failed on all counts.”
No, it’s them. You are the sane one. Look in the mirror and repeat after me “I am sane. I am sane. I am sane.” Good. Now look at Realtor.ca and see that the houses that were $1,000,000 last year are $800,000 today and will be $500,000 next spring. Start thinking: “Which one should I buy? I can actually afford to buy now! I can’t believe it. I was getting used to being priced out, and now I see that my patience was worth it!!!! Yippeeeeee!!! I AM sane after all. I will pay $250,000 for something my friends paid $500,000 for. I can’t believe it!!!! Waiting and watching and watching and waiting actually worked! Freako and friends were right!!! Whoooooooooohoooooooooooooo! One more year and I’m in!
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anon Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Ah Pandora, there it is… the Boomer narcissism.
You give her too much credit to attribute her specific nastiness to a generation.
I feel sorry for the people around her in her life off-line.
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anon Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
The only thing that counts is the relationships we build in-between and the love we share with each other.
That’s just crazy talk.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Pandora: “I have spent all of my career (except two years) studying and preventing transmission of diseases. The other two years were spent volunteering trying to each other people to do it for themselves. Which, I suspect, is exactly two more years than you will ever spend lifting a finger for your fellow man you sad, angry, boy.”
You are giving us all a disease. With you in charge of the disease department I now understand why we have so many diseases. I hope you retired now.
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scullboy Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Anon: I wouldn’t want to turn the Pope’s fabulous blog into an advertising venue. Oh who are we kidding, I’d love to do just that what with his circulation but I doubt he’d approve
.
Feel free to cruise on over to http://www.thelaughingchef.ca. It’s still very early days and the actual land line listed there isn’t set up yet, so feel free to use the email link to get in touch instead. Let me know what your thoughts about the dinner are and I’ll give you a quote.
I also do gift certificates and I’m available for anyone who wants a chef for an Xmas party, or an Xmas dinner
Oh and krrish I swear if you start stalking me, I have many creative ways to make you *very* sorry…. so don’t.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
-
Britain’s city centres left reeling by house price crash
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still waiting Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Where are those rich buyers who think Vancouver is good value?
$14,800,000
“The Penthouse at 1000 Beach avenue was created in 2006 by Award winning designer Arbel. Never before has such a distinguished residence been offered within this area. Boasting 7500sq ft’ on 2 levels with 35 ft ceilings and disappearing walls of glass that create a dramatic interplay between interior & exterior spaces as well as on the 360 degree views of the city, ,ocean and mountains. A perfect compliment to the setting the captivating and dramatic design is an impecable merged composition of the finest materials, open spaces and light. Many features include: full concierge, private elevator access, 5 full bdrm suites, sep. maids suite, priv. park, for 5 vehicles & fully integrated lighting, electronic, music & sec, system.”
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bcubbins Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
I would go TFSA first then RRSP. An RRSP only defers the income tax. Eventually you will have to pay tax on both the contributions and the investment gains. With the TFSA, you pay tax on the contributions but not on the gains. Even if you end up in a lower tax bracket in retirement, the total tax payable is likely greater with an RRSP. And if you die while still holding a large RRSP, it could be taxed at a higher rate. RRSP withdrawals in retirement might result in clawback of GIS, OAS and old age tax credit; TFSA withdrawals won’t.
The main RRSP advantage seems to be bankruptcy protection. If you are planning to start your own business or take on large debt for other reasons, an RRSP is safer.
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scullboy Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Montery:
What drives me mad about the baby boomers is the incredible sense of entitlement that seems to characterize so many (though not all) of them. My parents cry poor though my father collects motorcycles and hand made flyfishing reels.
My uncle goes into a fit of pique because he lost a contract with the government, even though he made his fortune overbilling the Nova Scotia Tories. He used to bitterly complain about the cost of public education….. until he had an autistic kid. Now he lobbes the government for special needs kids, and does all kinds of fundraising but that’s not altruism. It’s till working in his own selfish interests, it’s just dressed up in charitable works, and he expects to be recognized and lauded for his efforts.
So many of them seem to share Pandora’s perspective… “I’ve done wonderful things for the world, I deserve my inflated salary and I deserve to sell a home what whatever wildly inflated price I choose to set.
I deserve to retire at 55, and collect a government pension. I don’t want to live modestly on a reduced income, I want to park my sagging ass on a Harley and pretend I’m Dennis Hopper for the next 40 years while the next generation works for lower wages and less job security to pay for my health care.
And how *dare* those lazy Gen-Xers expect to buy a home at a decent price! They’ll buy at whatever insane price I decide, or they’ll live in a ilegal basement rental… and they should count themselves lucky to have *that*!
Gosh I can’t seem to understand all the bitterness out there toward people like me. Don’t these people see how wonderful and giving I am?”
I find that’s an extremely common outlook among boomers. I shouldn’t generalize I suppose, but I see it wherever I go. Pandora just seems typical. I suppose ‘m bein ga jerk for slapping her around on the blog but as Kurt Cobain said: oh well, whatever, nevermind.
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VancouverGuy Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
I got to talk to one of the people who approved the Oh James! ad last night. She said the market was weaker, everyone always knew Millennium would have trouble, and things would still well so long as they were of the highest quality and priced well. We’ll see.
I found the attached FANTASTIC article about what we might see in the future in Vancouver:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin.....crash.html
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VancouverGuy Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
And then realized that I had just opened the article from my browser here and that it hadn’t been on google finance… apologies to the person above, haha. I sent that article on to my friend who owns a flat in London. Ouch.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
bccubbins: Thanks for the insight. I never thought of it in that way.
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Dave Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Clearly I hit a nerve with the generational commentary.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Pandora: Could you do something about the Dave disease on this blog?
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
scullboy: nice website. I will be in contact with you closer to Christmas.
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browntown Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
hey nutslaps! melonimium generation lubing up pockets for next rocket launch! starts next sprint at “cosmo”! right outside shark club! see scullboy cooking in kitchen!
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jay Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Dave,
You’re like a toothache; all of your statements hit a nerve. Go on an adventure race or whatever you do when you’re not thinking about world RE domination.
Nobody actually gives a sh#t what you think about RE. How do I know this? Because you get very few comments on your blog. Instead, you come one here and make sweeping generalizations about the next generation of buyers. Tell you what, go to an Ozzie Jurock forum. You might actually find someone who’ll believe your tripe.
-J
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Sarah Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Dave, speaking of diseases…we have to talk. Call me.
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bearette Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
Invite your friends over for a hot meal and some wine when they are scared to death about losing their home(s) or jobs. Remind them that you are their friend and will be there for moral support.
After its all said and done, we came into this world with nothing, and will leave with nothing. The only thing that counts is the relationships we build in-between and the love we share with each other.
True and I’m lining up the invites as we speak… Now my response to them is, “Don’t worry, you’ll be fine.” What else can you say? Then I come here and speak my mind…
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
bearette: You’re doing the right thing. What else can you do? They won’t listen anyway. And even if you said “I told you so” they wouldn’t believe you. So just let them someday have an epiphany if they so desire. If not, well they have to work way harder than us. Why? Because they didn’t listen. Listening is good.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
If it makes you feel better, I know of people with extremely high IQs and great academic success and who have had charmed lives with wealthy families and large inheritances that got caught up in the bubble. It is a new world for them now. They never had this shock to their system before. It is strange to see them once so confident and arrogant to now be quiet for a change.
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stu Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Kids, don’t forget markets go up, markets go down; boomers know this as well as anyone. Mostly real estate markets go up, don’t pay rent for too long.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
Stu: Don’t worry, we’ll be in the market when they are down 50% from peak. Have a good day.
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Tony Danza Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Does everyone here realize that Pandora is Geezer? I’m sure you’ve all figured that out, what with his stupendous mastery of the Queen’s English and all.
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Hahaha
Geezer, you say? Now that’s funny!
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arit Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Bearette,
How about we organize a “Richmond Chapter” meeting…?
Anyone else from Richmond? We could meet at our humble, rented, place: And if non-Richmondites, want to join, also welcome.
So here it is: Say Ay if you are interested in a quiet hybernation evening with fellow bears. If so, I’ll organize the details.
Best regards,
arit
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Tony Danza Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Scullboy #254 describes my boomer family and acquaintances to a tee, unfortunately I don’t think your generalizing. I believe there have been several recent articles written with similar depictions of the “Shallowest Generation”, I’ll dig one up.
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blueskies Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
pandora = geezer!
wasn’t geezer the one with friends who collected unused condos as baubles?
or am i thinking of ampa?
these bulls all smell alike after awhile…
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stu Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Geezer is very intelligent and could likely pull something like that off, but the link is probably a bit of a stretch.
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Tony Danza Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Washington Post OP-ED, “Boomer Boomerang”:
http://tinyurl.com/5otzpe
The Shallowest Generation:
http://tinyurl.com/5ovtoz
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blueskies Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Geezer is very intelligent
stu: WTF?
your reading comprehension skills
are far greater than satvs’ command of the English language……
i’m gonna give you a down arrow on this one Mr. Pid
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scullboy Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Tony Danza:
Loved the Shallowest Generaiton article! That pretty much nailed the Boomer generation, except for their snide ability to blame *any* other generation for the disaster they’ve created. It’s their parents fault! It’s their children’s fault! It’s the government’s fault! It’s the banks’ fault!
Argh. it’s enough to make you crazy. My comfort is that while we’re all going to suffer, with any luck it’ll be Pandora and her ilk that suffer the most.
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patriotz Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
I heard that with the TFSA you can deduct any losses from your taxes but you can’t with the RRSP. Not sure if that’s true.
It’s not. Losses in either one are not deductible from your income because they’re tax shelters.
With an RRSP account you can invest in pretty much anything — even hard gold from the Canadian Mint
That’s not true either.
An RRSP only defers the income tax. Eventually you will have to pay tax on both the contributions and the investment gains.
Nor is this true. The initial contribution is paid from before-tax income, so your after-tax returns are the same as your gross returns, provided your marginal tax rates are the same at contribution and withdrawl time. If lower at withdrawl time, the taxation is actually negative.
Accurate information on RRSP’s and TSFA’s is out there. Seek and ye shall find.
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jesse Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
“And even if you said ‘I told you so’ they wouldn’t believe you.”
All they will believe is that you are but a stopped clock. Please pass the mashed potatoes.
I can’t believe people are going on about baby boomers versus Gen X/Y/Z. There are lots of every generation who will NOT be screwed by market crashes because they know how to properly manage risk.
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
“Cutting home prices key to sales success”
http://www.canada.com/calgaryh.....9bd4939661
“In the condo market, the average sale price decreased by 12.8 per cent to $289,148 while the median sale price fell by 7.3 per cent to $268,000. The average days on the market to sell a condo increased by 25 per cent to 50 days in October from 40 days in October 2007.”
My theory is that all the rich oil tycoons have stopped buying concrete shoe boxes in Calgary, so that they can save a little more money to buy in Vancouver before the buying frenzy starts up again just before the Olympicss.
Can anyone come up with a better theory?
Rennie,Maggie, anybody???
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anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
I’m sure John can come up with something.
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Keepn both eyes on the Pimps Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
“Our economy is not resource-based and consequently doesn’t have the volatility of Calgary or Vancouver. The lion’s share of people moving here now are between 35 and 55 and are financially secure. Historically so many people move here after cashing out in other places that 51 per cent of homeowners in Victoria don’t even have a mortgage. We are, to a large degree, insulated against the vagaries of the world market here.”
Ok I have seen my share of shameless boosterism, but this one beats Bill Good, Maggie, and Rob!
http://www.canada.com/victoria.....973935c6bc
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Michael Randallbard Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Home Prices Collapse In China
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
At least the gold one is true:
http://www.questrade.com/trading/gold_rsp.aspx
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Anonymous Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
http://news.gc.ca/web/view/en/.....p;page=183
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Vansanity Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
“I have tried to save at least a dozen people from this bubble. I failed on all counts.”
Phew! I’m glad you didn’t. The more people we convince, the more competition we’ll have when prices come back to affordable levels. Let them get in too deep and catch a falling knife. Sorry capitalism has its winners and losers. Friends are friends, but you have to look after number one.
*Cue the attacks on how cruel and callous my attitude toward the soon-to-be losers out there is. I can take it. Quite frankly, I don’t give a sh*t.
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Keeping an eye on the pimps Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
I can see how Chinese housing pricing collapsed,but Canada’s will not because we are over populated, and land locked with mountains and oceans.
And we have LULULEMON
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patriotz Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
“The property bubble is already starting to burst,” says Yan Yu, a business management scholar at Peking University, researching the export center of Dongguan in southern Guangdong province. “House prices here in Dongguan have fallen by up to 50% this year,” leaving many homeowners owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
“People have worked all their lives and believed the hype and bought overvalued properties, then saw their savings vanish,” says independent economist Andy Xie in Shanghai. “That carries more political risk” than rising joblessness.
But but but… I thought China was RUNNING OUT OF LAND and it was full of RICH PEOPLE and EVERYONE WANTED TO LIVE THERE and and…
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
“But but but… I thought China was RUNNING OUT OF LAND and it was full of RICH PEOPLE and EVERYONE WANTED TO LIVE THERE and and…”
Vancouver is multiculture society not only Rich Chinese are here but also Rich Americans and Europeans along with Rich Canadian cover the total ownership ratio at 72 percent with proven recored of Vancouver Real Estate virtually poised to never go down,is there any Chinese state ever called their place the best place on earth?
Rich Asian know the answer very well so they were back after beijing 2008 most of them also bought a pair of Olympics Clothing at duty free shops on their way back.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:32 am
It’s over. What was rich Asians and rich Europeans are now poor Asians and poor Europeans because of the stock market crash and global economic downturn.
Now, nobody can afford Vancouver real estate. There is no where to go but down for Vancouver real estate. All hope is lost.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 6:41 am
Patriotz: #278: you are wrong about the gold. See #283 and #284. We can buy hard gold within our RRSPs now.
People, why did you give Patriotz points for #278 and not me for #283 and #284. You are being sheeple! Don’t be so stupid, ok?
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:08 am
People, why did you give Patriotz points for #278 and not me for #283 and #284. You are being sheeple! Don’t be so stupid, ok?
Should be #284 and #285. OK, so I make mistakes sometimes too.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:10 am
Accurate information on RRSP’s and TSFA’s is out there. Seek and ye shall find.
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Randallbard is a tool Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:30 am
Now he posts his gold crap anonymously, then whines when they don’t get voted for.
What a tool!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Re: Post # 255
Interesting article:
I like the point about perhaps re-visiting the density, ie Build about 30 – 40 units instead of 300.
This ” build UP – not out ” mantra really set the seeds of the downfall. Under the delusion that the highest density is good and an efficent use of space, they simply ignored the rules of supply and demand. So much product was dumped on the market, a crash is inevitable.
However, so many Local Gov’ts have changed their OCP’s to allow for hi -density, what happens next ? Developers may play a game of chicken as to who builds first,and carefully monitor the market, and their financing may evolve along the same lines. The irony is that Local Gov’ts will not down zone the land, or else it depreciates the value,(lawsuits?) but in Catch-22 fashion, it may not be economically viable to build hi- rise for years, yet the viable market may shift to product like 2-3 storey townhouses.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Anon 292: We don’t vote you up because you’re an idiot. Whether you post as Randallbard or as anon your true nature shines right through. At least this should reassure you that it’s not personal. Any anon poster gets treated based on the merit of the post. A few named posters, who have a regular presence here, do get shown a bit of bias, for good or bad depending on their reputation. Most voting is pretty fair to the post itself. I am a regular poster, but will put this in as anon to demonstrate the truth of this.
If you want a gold star you’re going to have to earn it! You’re not in kindergarten anymore.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 8:32 am
You guys are wrong, wrong, wrong. You’re nothing but SHEEPLE.
Congratulations. You have NO CRITICAL THINKING SKILLS!!!
Ha Ha. You lose.
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Richmond Rich Renter Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Arit,
I’m all for the Richmond Chapter….when’s the first meeting?
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 8:39 am
If you knew who I was you would laugh at yourselves.
Please, peeps, get some critical thinking skills!
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Randallbard is a tool Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 8:59 am
If you agree with my handle, give me some props!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Story: Rise and Fall of the Vancouver Hi Rise
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....hColumbia/
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da mouse Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:29 am
A deep breath.. I guess we all got to purge this weekend.
Funny, that baby boomers were attacked. They are soooo bad or are they really? All?
Yes, I dont like all boomers, but I dont like all Genexers either or Y’s. There are some entitlement issues there too, depending on where they are coming from.
I think what makes us come here is to air frustrations, but also to share some truth since the media is not about news/truth/info anymore.
I also am painfully aware of the environmental situation of this planet is, of polarization of assets, coroporations, and am suppressing my fear to keep going the best I can.
About the guy with “queens english”. Language is important, dont underestimate it. Think George Orwell.
If we cant convey our thoughts well and clearly, then we have lost contact with each other. A bunch of strangers ending up hating each other.
There are good people in every gen, and x’ers are a product of their time and place just like every other generation.
We talk about getting along, no racism, how about putting a lid on agism. Look at the individual. All individuals that are going through the process of life. You are all getting older as I speak.
Sorry, no economics or RE in this posting.. but thought it could fit in at the tail end of “free for all”.
Just my two squeaks.. back into my modest hole behind the couch.
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betamax Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 9:56 am
About the guy with “queens english”. Language is important, dont underestimate it. Think George Orwell.
Orwell’s essay Politics and the English Language speaks precisely against the idiom used here by “the guy with ‘queens english’” — pretentious diction is a tool of pathetic self-aggrandizement rather than communication.
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bcubbins Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:05 am
The initial contribution is paid from before-tax income, so your after-tax returns are the same as your gross returns, provided your marginal tax rates are the same at contribution and withdrawl time.
Good point…from a taxation perspective, RRSP and TFSA are equivalent provided the marginal tax rates are the same pre- and post-retirement, AND ignoring the clawbacks of tax credits.
I’d still go TFSA first, then RRSP. The tax credit and OAS clawbacks are significant for many retired people. Plus, being risk averse, I’d rather pay a known tax now than an unknown tax sometime in the future when it’s too late to save more.
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betamax Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:12 am
article from Burnaby NewsLeader stating Vancouver lost 25k people during years 2001 – 2006. So much for real demand:
http://www.bclocalnews.com/gre.....ities.html
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arit Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Richmond Rich Renter,
How about Saturday or Sunday night?
If you wish, I would like to talk to you by phone first and give you the details.
We could exchange phone numbers in my site’s chat function – just post here an exact time where you can be at http://www.bemecollective.com , and I’ll meet you there.
Regards,
arit
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Betamax, you aren’t paraphrasing the article correctly. Vancouver still gained population in the early 90s. All the data shows is that BC residents had a net outflux from Vancouver into other major population centres. Nothing surprising about that.
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patriotz Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:28 am
The tax credit and OAS clawbacks are significant for many retired people.
Not many. The OAS clawback starts at $62.124 which is almost twice the median full-time employment income in Canada. It’s also adjusted for inflation.
If you’re flush enough to be close to that figure in retirement it’s certainly worthwhile using the TFSP to keep under it.
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richard Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Canda housing starts down 3.1%.
Prices up 2.1%.
On the other hand, Circuit City is bankrupt in the US. That kind of counts, because they own The Source here in canada. So there might have to be some impact on their operations here, i would imagine.
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richard Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Something interesting from the vancouver sun. about price drops in BC next year.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 10:56 am
But but but… I thought China was RUNNING OUT OF LAND and it was full of RICH PEOPLE and EVERYONE WANTED TO LIVE THERE and and…
…they had the Olympics!!! However our Olympics will be so much better and prosperous under the beautiful and awe inspiring dome of BC Place, the “Best Dome on Earth”!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 11:31 am
Land Shortage???
Not to worry..the sweatshops in the Far East are working overtime to create more land as we speak !
Next they will breed more Condo purchasers ! (Y’know, dialed into Muir, Jurock, and Pastrick and able to stand in pre-sale line -ups for hours )
They will build Mountains , trees , treehuggers , protestors, BMW’s , Rennie’s and other peripheral scenery to mimic Vancouver
PS Warning : Watch out for the Melamine in any of the above !!!
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bcubbins Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
The tax credit and OAS clawbacks are significant for many retired people.
Not many. The OAS clawback starts at $62.124…If you’re flush enough to be close to that figure in retirement it’s certainly worthwhile using the TFSP to keep under it.
The old age credit gets clawed backed starting at ~30k and is gone by 65k. So I’d aim to keep taxable retirement income below 30k if possible. I don’t know what percent of retirees exceed that, but most of us here seem to be good savers and so are likely to have greater than average retirement income from RRSP/TFSA investments.
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bcubbins Says:
November 10th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Anonymous, don’t expect a lot of votes for a post with nothing but a link. If you don’t include at least a one-sentence description, a lot of people won’t bother clicking the link. At least it wasn’t a tinyurl link.