314 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”
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November 7th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
B.C. unemployment rate up:
bs
Last Updated: Friday, November 7, 2008 | 2:14 PM ET Comments1Recommend3
CBC News
As construction of the Olympic oval nears completion, B.C.’s unemployment rate remains a full percentage point below the national average, despite rising half a percentage point in September. (Rafal Gerszak/Canadian Press)
Unemployment in B.C. has risen to its highest level in almost two years, according to fi Statistics Canada figures released Friday.
The numbers show 8,300 jobs disappeared in B.C. last month, pushing the jobless rate up half a percentage point to 5.1 per cent, an increase from 4.6 per cent in September.
But the province’s unemployment rate was more than a full percentage point lower than the national average, which climbed one-tenth of a point to 6.2 per cent.
November 7th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
The fact is coal harbour, false creek north water front locations are not going to be affected..
I love this! Those are the exact areas I am tracking on my spreadsheet and they have totally been affected!
November 7th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
hat this fact becomes more and more event as the days wear on. We have always said that we mirror the US and their decline, but there appears to be no explaination for this,
But there is an explanation, which is that the “subprime” and liar loans made to low-income buyers in the US were much less prevalent here. In other words low-income buyers found it harder to overextend themselves. And there was less speculation in the burbs because everyone knows rich people don’t want to live there.
On the other hand the West Side and West Van saw a huge wave of speculation, funded by God knows how many sources of hot money, on the idea that since these were the rich parts of town prices could never go down. Price/rent of some properties in these areas went past 400, while few in the valley hit 300. Well of course we all know that in the last few months a lot of hot money has gone “poof” and we can see the results.
November 7th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Jennifer Podmore Russell
Founder and managing partner, MPC Intelligence
Age: 28
“She spent four years tracking real estate development and its associated trends with Colliers International before a conversation with a friend would provoke Podmore Russell into action.”
November 7th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
see Page 7:
http://www.strangeloopnetworks.....biv949.pdf
“My passion — more from blood than osmosis from my dad [Real estate developer David Podmore] being in the industry — is that I love development.”
November 7th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Good point Potato Hat…
“He also observed the somewhat surprising trend that prices were dropping faster in West Vancouver and the westside, instead of the suburbs, which is the reverse of the trend seen in California, Florida, etc…”
I’ve noticed this as well, and going by the Fraser Valley Real estate stats and the Greater Vancouver area, the alarming trend is that this fact becomes more and more event as the days wear on. We have always said that we mirror the US and their decline, but there appears to be no explaination for this, as this seems to be the reverse of what is/was happening in the States.
I’m personally thinking that the “perceived” value for the homes in the valley is higher (McMansion’s with higher square footage)than for the tiny old Vancouver 1950′s box or condo.
I;m disappointed becayse I figured there would be the price drops out here, and so far we have not seen the same ones that Vancouver is experiencing…maybe the Valley is different?!
November 7th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Ooh, Daddy!
http://www.concertproperties.c...../main8.htm
November 7th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Regarding:
“Hey Anonymous, did you see the link I posted?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..32046.html
Waterfront bought for $798,000 two years ago, now going for 13% off (or best offer).”
We have been following that “Platinum” unit for 3-4 months, with its Kayaks and bowling alleys LOL
I can only say one thing: If you are ‘smart’ enough to buy a 1!, BEDROOM!, CONDO!, for EIGHT-HUNDRED-THOUSAND-DOLLARS!!!, bankruptcy is imminent.
“Resistance is futile!”
Best regards,
arit
November 7th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
You, too, can buy a MARKET INTELLIGENCE subscription from Jennifer Podmore, Managing Partner of MPC INTELLIGENCE:
email: jennifer@mpcintelligence.ca
” Market Intelligence Subscriptions
British Columbia
Vancouver Lower Mainland: $ 5,950.00
BC Interior: $ 4,250.00
Greater Victoria: $ 2,350.00
BC Province (includes all submarkets): $ 10,500.00″
http://www.thetrac.ca/about
November 7th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
browntown why don’t you stick to one name and be proud of all the garbage you write on here?
Just because everyone laughs at you and thinks you’re an idiot doesn’t make it okay to accuse me of writing something that was obviously written by you.
If you don’t work in a unionised capitalist warhouse, or whatever it was you said yesterday, then where do you work?
November 7th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
The fact is coal harbour, false creek north water front locations are not going to be affected. Most people who own are affluent
LOL. I heard this fallacy many times about areas in the US —which have all tanked since. Yet another version of the “It can’t happen here” myth, being trotted out by myopic dunces who used to say it can’t happen at all.
November 7th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Let’s try to define or re-define the term ” speculators”.
In my view, if you own any residential property and do NOT live in it, that is “speculation”
That’s wrong.
Speculation means buying an asset because you are expecting a capital gain (note the common root of the word). If you are buying an asset for the income yielded, you are not a speculator. What that means in RE terms is positive cash flow.
Cash flow positive investors, like all true investors, perform a useful service by providing capital and taking on risk from renters, who in return pay more than the cost of capital. They also keep people in the construction business employed when demand from owner-occupiers drops.
Anyone who buys RE expecting to sell it for more than they paid for it is a speculator. And yes, that includes owner-occupiers.
November 7th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Oye original author of that union was bdk at #47 on previous thread.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:57 am
exx, you did not mention in which country or city of the world?
November 7th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Seeing as how Pope put my last one up on last Friday’s post, I suppose I should start posting the updates here
This is my latest Price Reduced Sales to Assessment Comparison. Interestingly, compared to benchmark drops these have come very close. September benchmark -1.6%, AS/SP -1.9%. October benchmark -4.4%, AS/SP -4.6%. Coincidence? Maybe. Guess we’ll see how this month compares.
Keep in mind that the only sales I’m keeping track of are those that have been previously reduced, and even then I’m sure I don’t manage to capture all of them – but I try to get at least 15 for any given day.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:41 am
I agree. I think Berezan is just trolling the waters or he is assisting Surrey in playing regional politics. Surrey and Vancouver have always been at odds with development and transportation. Doug McCallum used to say to Vancouver that Surrey would surpass their population and hence be more relevant to decision making in the region. Larry Campbell would respond by saying for every new subdivision in Surrey, he would put up a new high rise tower in downtown. And then consider all the recent politics with transportation and bridges and you can see why Surrey might be playing politics here.
Yes, I think 70 stories would be a record.
I remember somebody telling me the SkyTrain could double capacity easily with the current technology. That’s still a lot of population growth available.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Sincere apologies since I just posted this on yesterday’s thread, but I wanted to be absolutely certain Krrish / Browntown/SatV/Time/Nobody reads it, since I have finally figured out how he’s been so useful to the rest of us:
Ah krrrrrish/nobody/brownstreak…..
Why aren’t I surprised that you are part of a union. It makes perfect sense, really. I imagine you bitterly resent paying union dues, don’t you? Yet the union is the only thing standing between you and Wal-mart type wages.
OF COURSE you’re in a union! I mean who on God’s earth would hire you? Your English is appalling. I know preschoolers who can write better then you can. I think most people here would agree that you couldn’t possibly hold down a white collar job for longer then.. 15 minutes tops.
And of course you dream of “capitalism” and being the next Donald Trump. Of course you’re a cheerleader for “the free market”. Your betters filled your head with silly notions of getting rich; they appealed to your greed and knew your stupidity would blind you. They knew how easy it would be to brainwash you, so they bought a little advertising time on the radio and put up some billboards. They knew you’re far too stupid, venal and greedy to question the possibility of getting rich not through brains and work, but through laziness and greed.
And now they have your hard work, and your money. They sold you a shitty box in Tranny Towers at a wildly inflated price. That means they control you now. You don’t have to resources to educate yourself or to go out and change your career or start your own business. You’re going to be working in that warehouse for the rest of your life…. for whatever shitty wage they can push on you.
Your family will rarely see you, as you’ll have to work double shifts to make ends meet. Your wages won’t go to them.
Those will go to:
- The condo developer, for that shitty little box they sold you
- Bob Rennie, for figuring out how to sucker you through your own greed and stupidity
- the City of Vancouver , for convincing you that you live in “The Best Place on Earth”
- The mortgage broker, for arranging the abolute highest payments you can possibly make without literally starving you to death.
God, I see it all so clearly now and it makes me laugh. You poor sucker, you dumbest of fucks. You and how many other blue – collar chumps have willingly …. EAGERLY and literally sold your working lives to your economic betters because you naively thought they were on your side. Meanwhile you bitterly resent the unions who, while imperfect, are the only ones who ever bothered to look out for you.
I want to thank you dude, and I mean that sincerely at this moment. I’ve had a tough go of it recently but thanks to you, I’m reminded of the one gift nobody can take from me: My intelligence. I was smart enough not to get caught up in foolish and greedy dreams of unearned wealth.
Thanks to my intelligence I saved as much money as I could, and invested it conservatively. That left me with the resources I needed to change careers when my own industry began to collapse and last night after months of puzzling it out, I came up with a business model that will work, is flexible, can be started with almost no capital and has an excellent change of succeeding.
Thank you Krrish / Nobody. I believe you have fulfilled your life’s one great purpose: You have served as a warning to others.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:29 am
I have been watching the West End market for 3.5 years now and there was/is a lot of overpriced “junk” out there.
Way way way overpriced and nice to see reality kick in and a good 20-30% drop in coming months.
No Canada, you are not immune to the global economic crisis.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:29 am
I’ve got some anecdotal evidence that confounds the view of most bears around here. A good friend of mine knows a rich asian who’s brother bought a lambourgini yesterday. He also got a condo so he could have a place to park it downtown.
Another friend bought two suvs and a boat after he SOLD his condo at a PROFIT to a rich asian. It’s the Obama factor at work here folks. As soon as you have hope you get spare change.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:26 am
BC had the highest number of layoffs in Canada last month, at 8300:
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....f1620cbb9b
November 7th, 2008 at 11:21 am
360 craigslist “for rent” ads today
as of 10:20 AM
“pent up supply” anybody?
November 7th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Apologies for the long post, thought you guys might be interested in this. My girlfriend is in UBC Law, and attended a seminar/conference for RE law students on the real estate market hosted by CMHC and the Bank of Montreal yesterday.
Evidently the guy from the CMHC was predicting a 10% fall in prices for Vancouver in 2009. He identified the various reasons prices go up and down (population, rising incomes, etc…) and observed that the primary reason prices were dropping now is because they simply got too high.
He wouldn’t speculate when a bottom would occur. He pointed out that the past two slumps (1981 and the 90′s) both had different slopes and trends on the graph, and observed that predicting a bottom based on past trends wasn’t possible.
He also observed the somewhat surprising trend that prices were dropping faster in West Vancouver and the westside, instead of the suburbs, which is the reverse of the trend seen in California, Florida, etc…
When pressed further about the more general question “when would be a good time to buy” he said that he was a renter himself, and he certainly wasn’t buying any time soon.
Very interesting tidbit from the guy from BMO. Apparently they are demanding 35-40% down payments now, even for people with acceptable income and good credit. No-one in the group asked for a further explanation of this, whether it was a simple tightening of lending capital, or more an attempt to rachet up the quality of mortgages on their books.
All in all, it sounded like the CMHC guy was quite frank and open about the current state of the market, and quite knowledgable about the characteristics of the bubble in the states. I would have liked the chance to bounce a couple questions off him.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Hey Anonymous:
We are not talking about being myopic and focussing on niche’s. We are talking about the overall condo market.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Dave:
I agree re: Berezan and their so-called expertise. Local Gov’ts love condo’s much quicker cash flow for all parties concerned. …commercial is more a long term, less demand.
Berezan is perhaps simply promoting…trolling the market. If he is planning on building a 70 storey building, that’s a BC record is it not? …..are they trying to create a Manhattan ?.
However, SkyTrain still has limited capacity, all things do , and eventually a tipping point occurs where even their own ridership pursues other options. It is a transit system most of the world has refused to purchase, it’s purchase for B.C. was mostly political, it has been pimped as a pork barrel project by various Gov’ts,… Developers piggybacked and rode the SkyTrain “gravy train” via OCP pimping, ….’nuff said.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am
The fact is coal harbour, false creek north water front locations are not going to be affected
Hey Anonymous, did you see the link I posted?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....32046.html
Waterfront bought for $798,000 two years ago, now going for 13% off (or best offer).
p.s. I own property, but that does not alter my views of the current real estate market.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am
“litterally employes ”
1.ignorant
2.illiterate fool
Probably works at Canadian Tire and has six assignments
November 7th, 2008 at 10:52 am
100M dollar loan is a lot of money to keep secret about, secured or not secured (how is it secured?). Although it isn’t quite as excessive as some of the methods used to produce the Beijing Olympics, I don’t think we can’t be entirely proud and say this is squeaky clean. It smells, and in an open democracy, things shouldn’t smell this bad.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:51 am
I think the posters on this site are morons and or simply never owned property in their life and probably never will. The fact is coal harbour, false creek north water front locations are not going to be affected. Most people who own are affluent and there is non of this bs 5 percent down garbage. Most have atleast put down 25% and have a 1500 loan and if they sell they will not take a low ball price. I know hundreds of people in False Creek north who own and have purchased 1 bed or even 2 beds for 400 to 1 million. most of the people i know have 25% debt on the place if that. To you wishfull renters hoping to sabatoge the market and get a deal in the future to you i say …..(middle finger) have a nice day. and you pansys are bitching about paying 160 bucks so our olympic village can be completed and a huge developer who has poured 100s of millions of his own money in to the economy and litterally employes and has paid for tens of thousands of people’s living and family costs and you are bitching about 160 bucks per person…I think i need a barff bag…excuse me while i throw up people in false creek spend $160 in a day at urban fair for a pack of gum and some groceries for 2 days.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:45 am
From the Globe story posted by blueskies…
“Speculators have entirely left the market,” says Jennifer Podmore Russell
Not true at all. There are still many speculators left in the market. They’ve just moved from the buy side to the sell side. Like this Flagship flipper for instance, now facing a $100k loss…
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....32046.html
November 7th, 2008 at 10:34 am
NO-LYMPICS, the SkyTrain still has a lot of capacity available to it, even during rush hour.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:31 am
RE- Surrey Towers: Dreaming to build and able to build are two very different things. Berezan is involved in commercial real estate, but have they ever done a residential development? I haven’t heard of one, never mind a multi-year high density mixed use tower development. Good luck securing the capital.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Let’s try to define or re-define the term ” speculators”.
In my view, if you own any residential property and do NOT live in it, that is “speculation”…it is surplus to your basic needs. You may call it an ” investment “(short term or long term ), “future retirement home “, hedge against inflation, whatever .
There is nothing wrong with that, it is “legal” and perhaps a prudent decision for the given “speculator” .
However, if you relied on this speculation investment for your overall portfolio….in all likelihood you are seeing a lot of red ink.
Living close to a City Center littered with Hi – Rises, (and with daylight savings just having kicked in, the number of dark/UN-lit hi rise units is enormous) . My guess is the average is 8 UNlit condos – for 1 condo unit with Lights on. I was in False Creek /Yaletown area twice in one week recently…same thing.
It’s not just a matter of oversupply, but ” once bitten twice shy” may kick in aka consumer confidence. If someone came up to me with a desperate look and offered me a condo at 50 % off , I’d say thanks but no thanks… who wants to buy during free-fall with an unknown bottom ? (I am not even talking about the crap that is built full of deficiences that is often the norm in boom times, of which I am sure we will see soon, but that’s another story ).
November 7th, 2008 at 10:09 am
The Surrey proposal is intriguing.
What is the BIG Picture?
If one connects the dots, it appears Surrey has a master plan to create a downtown core which also involves the possible moving of Surrey City Hall to the same area.
Perhaps they are using this as a means to gentrify the area and displace the less attractive elements and facets.
Of course, they will try and use the same old pablum -mantra of building hi -density adjacent to SkyTrain. I think Surrey is rather misguided, unless the aim is to force drug dealers to ” go – green ” and use SkyTrain instead of armour – plated Hummers. I think Surrey’s zeal to build hi-rises simply exacerbates the problem…it is more political than practical, hence another inevitable mess in the making.
If and when the Evergreen line gets going , the same formula for failure will be set in motion.
SkyTrain has a limit to its capacity and perceived efficiency, it could end up as gridlocked as a highway, but SkyTrain has far less options to remedy. This will then start to have a bearing on the hi -rise condo market.
November 7th, 2008 at 9:39 am
please note “Ms. Podmore Russell” is of the
Concert Properties Podmores(top management)
so there is some bias in the “don’t worry be happy” scenario…..
November 7th, 2008 at 9:32 am
According to her calculations, it will take about 17 months for the market to absorb the high-rise condo units under construction. That is close to double the nine-month equivalent figure from this time last year. More to the point, however, the 17-month time frame roughly coincides with the time it will take to actually build those high-rises. If Ms. Podmore Russell is correct, the industry will have avoided overshooting the market and creating a destabilizing glut.
Holy #### 17 months is a lot! Isn’t a balanced market 6 months?
She also ignores the fact that there’s already 15 months of inventory out there, so wouldn’t that make her prediction 32 months?
November 7th, 2008 at 8:29 am
$1.6B towers being planned for Surrey over next 10-15 years around King George Skytrain station including a 70-storey tower…Tony Danza, I know you like the sound of more glut, you’ll like this save for the timing.
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....496be6e721
Jobs numbers out today,here’s some articles on it:
BC loses 8,300 jobs in October, Canada adds 9,500 and defies expectations. Unemployment rate at 6.2% in Canada.
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....f1620cbb9b
From the article above: “Also Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said the country lost 240,000 jobs in October – far greater than expected – and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.5 per cent from 6.1 per cent the previous month. That’s the highest rate since March 1994.”
US has 1.2M now unemployed. The job losses are starting to mount, while gaining momentum. A sure sign of a recession. Ford announced Q3 loss today of $129M and said they will be cutting North American workforce by 10%.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/0.....2008110709
November 7th, 2008 at 7:59 am
The rise and fall of the Vancouver high-rise
http://tinyurl.com/6ag93n
For speculative investors, however, the drop in prices is lethal.
to add to the drumbeat……
November 7th, 2008 at 7:04 am
I can add that US speculators, who have had some impact in the Whistler and Victoria markets, mostly got out last year.
A combination of the high CAD which gave them a golden opportunity to cash out and resistance to the “best place on earth” BC koolaid. They know the jig was up back home and knew it would soon be up here.
November 7th, 2008 at 6:39 am
“Some of those non-resident speculators will need to dump their Vancouver investments to cover investment losses elsewhere… ”
That may be true, but how many non-resident speculators are there?
NOT MANY
The international investor myth may have slightly more substance than Ogopogo, but not much more.
The RE whores and pimps make vague reference to the illusive international specuvestors, but they never give out hard numbers to support the claim.
The non resident speculator is a lie perpetuated by every local real estate board in North America.
Remember these rich off shore investors were supposed to have deep pockets who pay cash,so they aren’t affected by the credit crunch.
So where have they all gone?
Don’t they know we are running out of land?
November 7th, 2008 at 6:26 am
Oh rats, does this mean my Camembert supply will dry up?
I really hate cheeze whiz..
November 7th, 2008 at 4:57 am
Some of those non-resident speculators will need to dump their Vancouver investments to cover investment losses elsewhere…
This applies to resident speculators just as much as non-residents really. They’re just as likely to be exposed to investment or income losses. If Joe the Plumber gets his work hours cut due to a building slump, that cash flow negative condo is going to have to go.
November 7th, 2008 at 2:51 am
On top of all the other problems that the Vancouver real estate market is experiencing as a result of the economy, there is also the issue of the tidal wave of completions heading our way over the next couple of years.
That’s the first part of the total-collapse-story…
The second part of the story is the amount of Vancouver condo units (and SFH’s) that are owned by non-resident investors. Some of those non-resident speculators will need to dump their Vancouver investments to cover investment losses elsewhere… it’s a given… and when they do dump them, they will sell them for whatever price they will bear in a quick sale.
Oh baby, it’s gonna be a messy market as it comes crashing down. I can’t hardly wait.
November 7th, 2008 at 1:37 am
Attention Kmart shoppers! We have a blue light special on aisle 10. All shoebox condos on aisle 10 have been discounted 30%.
Don’t forget that next week, we will have a 40% liquidation sale on all townhouses on aisle 4.
Thank you for shopping at Kmart!
November 7th, 2008 at 12:27 am
Well actually people are justified in having less fear about RE. If you already own a house and can afford the payments, it really doesn’t matter what happens to the market price going forward. As long as you weren’t planning on selling at an expected price in the future (which would make you a speculator). But it matters a whole lot if you lose your job.
It’s the speculators, of course, who have plenty to fear from an RE price decline. They are the ones who have actually bet their economic well-being on RE prices. As well prospective buyers get scared away when prices start falling.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:48 pm
By the way, regarding denial- people get scared very quickly about economy, job security, etc, but somehow denial blocks any fear when it comes to real estate. Any ideas why?
November 6th, 2008 at 11:46 pm
“What’s going to actually drive our economy now?”
It may sound corny, but you and I drive the economy by being more productive and innovating.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
People will be in denial for a long time. Denial is self-reinforcing…
November 6th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
By the way, how did that Vancouver RE Boom is over post define price declines? My stats indicate a 33.4% decline in PoMo… there seems to be something slightly fishy about those numbers.
Can anyone else actually find the October stats package online? Seems to be much harder to find than usual. I found it yesterday and now that site is gone. But I have a copy saved on my HD for record…
November 6th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
I posted updated figures from April all the way through to now of how the HPI for each of the specific regions has performed.
Things look absolutely horrific. The annualized price drops are just absolutely shocking. And people are in denial about this… I heard people today talking about how our economy will remain strong. What is going to drive the economy? Infrastructure spending? Only if we need really need it, and even then it won’t add a ton of jobs. Our forestry industry? Of course not. Residential and commercial construction? Not a chance. Increased trade? No way.
What’s going to actually drive our economy now?
November 6th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Hello, I am #1