Friday Free For All!
Friday means the weekend is almost here, and that means it’s time for our end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion. Here are a few stories I’ve noticed this week:
-Work comes to a halt at Jameson House
-Construction halted on Victoria Hill Building
-Municipalities urged to increase residential property tax vs. business tax
-Vancouver west houses: 968 listings, 12 days, zero sales
-Builder Association: The Vancouver property market will bounce back
-Condo Wiki: ‘expert’ Quote-tracker
-BC #1 in job losses since September
-Vancouver fund’s cash reserves ‘tapped out’
-When politicians treat voters like bumpkins
-Entire city council agrees to lie-detector test on $100 olympic leak
-Ottawa boosts mortgage buy-out by $50 billion
-Canada to consider selling national assets
-US Foreclosures up 25% year over year
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, anecdotes and thoughts here and have an excellent weekend!
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browntown Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
oh yeaaah nutsnaps! soon gov spigots open up for liquidity injection! all boats rising on higher tide! bond vigalantis heading for ark! oh yeah! alex canucks balls floating by lighthouse park!
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bearette Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Reposting as it got lost on the end of the last post:
This excellent Michael Lewis (of Liar’s Poker fame) article will scare the hide off the craggiest stock market bear. Did me. We ain’t seen nothing yet. One of the best things I’ve read all year in my near ADD-level of house and stock bubble article browsing.
http://www.portfolio.com/news-…..print=true
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thomas Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Yeah nutslaps! buy now and borrow frem yur family then they get poor too!
There’s a simple measure of sanity in housing prices: the ratio of median home price to income. Historically, it runs around 3 to 1; by late 2004, it had risen nationally to 4 to 1. “All these people were saying it was nearly as high in some other countries,” Zelman says. “But the problem wasn’t just that it was 4 to 1. In Los Angeles, it was 10 to 1, and in Miami, 8.5 to 1. And then you coupled that with the buyers. They weren’t real buyers. They were speculators.”
yeah yeah and I drink my chai tea yeah yeah nutslaps realtor
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thomas Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Reposting as it got lost on the end of the last post:
This excellent Michael Lewis (of Liar’s Poker fame) article will scare the hide off the craggiest stock market bear. Did me. We ain’t seen nothing yet. One of the best things I’ve read all year in my near ADD-level of house and stock bubble article browsing.
I think you meant this link:
http://www.portfolio.com/news-.....reets-Boom
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Gadwin Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 10:53 pm
ZERO SALES for Vancouver West detached houses in the last 12 days?
Buh bye Vancouver West Specuvestors! What goes up, must come DOWN!
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Larry Yatkowsky Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
‘Condofo’,
Thanks for the shout. Tis rose like no other. :>)
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
CZ spam,
Welcome as Larry Yatkowsky.
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Anonymous Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Larry, you’re a poet. It’s nice to see a local realtor with a unique take on things.
The market rose and now its withered on the vine.
Perhaps too much fertilizer was used? Thanks for sharing the stats.
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browntown Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
oh yeah! larrys sales total looks like graph from stride gum! still chewing first peace! yeah thomas if you find land making machine let us know! otherwise back to sleep!
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arit Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
Repugnant-
re⋅pug⋅nant
Synonyms of repugnant
abhorrent, abominable, antipathetic, contemptible, despicable, despisable, detestable, disgusting, foul, infamous, loathsome, lousy,”Entire council agrees to lie-detector test on city hall report leak”, despicable, despisable, detestable, disgusting.
Best regards
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Tom Vu Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
Larry, only 2 type of people in world. Doer and loser. The doer gets the bargain, while the loser sit at home and watch TV.
Don’t say someday you become a doer. Someday may never come.
Vote green = doer, red = loser!
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anonymous Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
Larry, nothing worse than boot lickers that lick the boots of those that have stepped on them.
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Vansanity Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
If anyone thinks the market will quickly rebound due to any of the moves the BOC is doing, they should educate themsleves on fractional reserving and looser lending regulations that gave rise to this bubble, then get back to us. No need to get into the current credit crunch, irresponsible interest rate setting, stale global demand, current global recession, bursting commodity bubble, employment outlook… don’t bother, you’ll just end up ignoring it all if you did.
It’s so obvious, it’s almost boring now. Wish I had one of those remote controls from Click, I’d hit fast forward about now.
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JordanClark Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 12:27 am
@bearette
The link you gave is broken, can you repost it again, it sounds interesting. Can it beat the doom & gloom of Peter Schiff and his book Crash Proof predicting the US collapse?
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Rado Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 12:52 am
Re:Canada to consider selling national assets
They should have sold the assets long time ago, before the bubble popped. Why does the government own the CN Tower anyway?
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Larry Yatkowsky Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 2:32 am
#12 anon,
It’s called courtesy.
By linking to my blog the owners of this blog showed courtesy – my comment was a thank you, nothing more nor less. Should opportunity arise I would do the same in return. To be clear, to my knowledge, this blog nor it’s owners have ever caused me harm.
What your reference to boot licking has got to do with my gesture of appreciation is beyond me.
Tom Vu
Speak of facts not hyperbole. Please, show me the reference for your statement falsely attributed to me: – “…someday you become a doer”.
Shout you may, loud as you can, I and others might listen, but in your “DOING” you haven’t earned the priviledge to castigate me by shouting nonsense.
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 7:24 am
Hey Browntown, here is a story for you:
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....66&p=2
it say vancouver special and:
“Metro Vancouver is well positioned to bounce back. According to leading demographers, we will need to accommodate another million people during the next 10 to 15 years. And during the 2010 Olympics, more than three billion pairs of eyes will be focused on us, creating interest from investors, tourists and families looking to live in one of the most livable regions on the planet.”
Better hurry call professional realtor this am before prices go up.
Other vely smart peoples like you read “Expert Simpson and understand that 3 billion pairs of eye balls see how sexy Vancouver, and they will come and set up business and more rich peoples comes.
Call Realtor today, do not delay.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 7:28 am
oh yeaaah nutsnaps! soon gov spigots open up for liquidity injection! all boats rising on higher tide! bond vigalantis heading for ark! oh yeah! alex canucks balls floating by lighthouse park!
Hey Browntown — that’s a rather disgusting and disingenuous comment. But funny! You get points for laughs …
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Tom Vu Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 7:45 am
Larry, message was meant for everyone not for just you.
Much more loser in thread than doer.
If you want to make money you have to be a doer. Lots of bargains right now. I see new bargain every day. Best time to buy is when market scared. Now is that time. Get out there!
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blueskies Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Jameson House not gonna fly:
http://tinyurl.com/5lj35u
woulda been a neat tower….
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blueskies Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 7:55 am
did anybody know that Vancouver has the Olympics?
http://tinyurl.com/66px95
VANCOUVER — Stocks are plummeting, layoffs abound and a recession is on the way, but the desire to fork out big bucks to attend the 2010 Winter Olympics is as good as gold.
nobody ever tells me anything….
i’m so far out of the loop that i
don’t know the loop exists…..
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:07 am
I love this line from the Michael Lewis(author of Liars’s Poker ) article.
” Somehow that message failed to come across. Six months after Liar’s Poker was published, I was knee-deep in letters from students at Ohio State who wanted to know if I had any other secrets to share about Wall Street. They’d read my book as a how-to manual”.
Pretty much says it all.
Learning from History’s Mistakes is more like ” I’m all right Jack” and ” Me Too = Screw You “.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Fabulous link from Bearette! Here it is on one page. Bearette may have a spot of trouble with HTML, but no trouble finding great articles.
A snippet:
There’s a long list of people who now say they saw it coming all along but a far shorter one of people who actually did. Of those, even fewer had the nerve to bet on their vision. It’s not easy to stand apart from mass hysteria—to believe that most of what’s in the financial news is wrong or distorted, to believe that most important financial people are either lying or deluded—without actually being insane. A handful of people had been inside the black box, understood how it worked, and bet on it blowing up.
Now scroll back up and give her a star!
Speaking of stars….. Does re-phrasing “This market is done, stick a fork in it!” really deserve a star? It seems to have become more of a poll. “Do you agree with the poster?”, rather than a reward for insight, new info, excellent link, good writing etc. Some of Dave’s posts deserve stars, not because he’s right, but because he articulates his points so well. Don’t worry, he will be refuted by multi-starred responses, but he deserves a click or two just for trying.
Mind you, verbal diarrhea is different. Nobody!!!! still gets an automatic down-click from me, and liberal use of the scroll wheel.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Anonymous: Aren’t you special!
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Whups, #23 is me. Usually my browser put my name in , occasionally shows up no name or borrows a name from someone else. How very odd.
At least it’s never used Krissh/SATV,etc. I’d have to sanitize my keyboard!
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Anonymous: So YOU’RE the idiot who gives Dave points. Hahaha….sucker!
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blueskies Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:37 am
oh yea!
well my down arrow is bigger than yours!
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:50 am
I did specify “some” of Dave’s post. Pity the poor guy who’s job it is to set up the targets, only to see them blasted to pieces, often before he’s left the blast zone. Ouch!
I guess there’s a place for the “pity click”.
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Ulsterman Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:58 am
I was just listening to Philip Till(?) on CKNW and he was talking to his producer about the real estate market. Now is SHE an all-seeing guru! Some comments:
“People will ALWAYS buy real estate, so don’t worry”
“Young people will always be looking for places to live”
“Don’t confuse falling sales with falling prices, prices have only fallen 6%. The sky is hardly falling”
My favourite one:
“On Monday’s program I will have GOOD NEWS for those who bought at the peak” I’m on tender hooks…
These aren’t word for word quotes, but they’re pretty close.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Question for whomever:
A colleague at work told me she was renting and saving to buy an apartment since 2004 but now she lost her down payment on the stock market.
What can I say to her to calm her mind?
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scullboy Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Ulsterman, the good news is probably this:
“Hey, want to get laid?
Well that condo you bought is going to drop in value by 50% in the next 12 months.
There. NOW you’re f**ked!”
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:23 am
CKNW Breaking News…
The “British Columbia Real Estate Association” says residential sales volume on the mulitple listing service fell 54 per-cent in October, compared to the same month a year ago. Residential unit sales were down 51 per-cent and the average price fell 6.5 per-cent.
6.5% year over, how about since April 2008, ‘the peak’.
Love the Olympic crap, even J-Pod made reference to it yesterday. Why dont we survey Beijing, Turin, Salt Lake, Athens, etc and see how they are doing. Did everyone feel compelled to buy into these markets when watching them on TV? Remember Beijing with all its rain and delayed events, that looked really appealling. Does anyone know how much it rains in February here? Will look equally inviting on TV to the billions watching. They will wonder where the mountains are! The herd cannot be conned anymore, they are in panic and values are in free fall! I LOVE IT!
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anon Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:26 am
alex: It seems to have become more of a poll. “Do you agree with the poster?”, rather than a reward for insight…”
Those are your criteria, not THE criteria. People will vote as they see fit, often just in agreement, and there’s nothing wrong with that. You are not the Decider….
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Not my criteria, certainly not “the” criteria, just my opinion. Lot’s of opinions here, ain’t it great!
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Anonb Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:05 am
“A colleague at work told me she was renting and saving to buy an apartment since 2004 but now she lost her down payment on the stock market.
What can I say to her to calm her mind?”
Tell her she has plenty of time to buy and plenty of time to collect a downpayment. Housing will plummet and stay low for many years. This will not be a V-shaped drop with a rapid recovery. No it will moderately rapid fall followed by stagnation.
Funny how the bulls were fond of saying we might enter a market with stagnant prices. Yes, stagnant prices could happen, but first we need the big drop
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anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Alex, it takes balls to see your post shrink, it’s not for you sir.
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mino3 Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:11 am
A colleague at work told me she was renting and saving to buy an apartment since 2004 but now she lost her down payment on the stock market.
What can I say to her to calm her mind?
Tell her that down payment money goes into safe investments like GICs or savings accounts. She was foolish to gamble it away.
On a positive note, tell her that in a few years, real estate will be at least 50% off, so she’ll need a smaller down payment.
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john Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:15 am
“A colleague at work told me she was renting and saving to buy an apartment since 2004 but now she lost her down payment on the stock market.”
That about sums up many of the most fervent bear posters on this site. Tell her the truth. What’s the truth? Well she’s just wasted at least 4 years of her life.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:16 am
mino3: Thanks for the advice. I told her two years ago when I saw the markets going to a bubble to put her down payment money in a GIC at vancity, but she told me at the time she has other things to do. I even suggested buying gold, which would have been better than doing nothing. She seems to have an aversion to dealing with finances. Something emotional.
I feel badly for her, but there is not a lot I can do but what you said.
Thanks.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Oh by the way, my friend is nearing 50 years of age.
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umdesch4 Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Yeah, I’ve voted Dave up on occasion too. Sometimes he posts links to stats/charts/graphs that I haven’t seen, and find interesting. Then he goes and totally misinterprets them, but the ensuing argument is always more informative than much of the name calling in here.
As Alexcanuck says, he gets points for trying.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Thanks everyone for your advice. I will try my best to cheer her up. She seems so depressed.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Oh, by the way, I have been telling my colleague since 2006 spring that the market was going to crash and it did nothing but go up until 2008 spring, so I feel like a disingenuous fool telling her that it will crash 50% yet again. It’s not that I don’t believe it, it is just that I know she thinks I am full of bs at this point. What to do?
I guess the only thing is to “pack your own shute” as they say and do the homework like we all have done so we don’t waste our money.
Have a good day, everyone!
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Noname Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:48 am
“Then he goes and totally misinterprets them”
you make it sound like it was accidental.
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visio Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 11:01 am
For the ones that think that Vancouver is different:
http://blog.mint.com/blog/fina.....al-crisis/
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scullboy Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Hey Anon:
Far be it from me to offer advice to a depressed Boomer but you might offer the following:
1) Assume the losses she suffered are 50%. Assume she invested 25, 000. She’s therefore lost 12,500.
2) Now assume prices are going to drop 50% from the peak, which seems pretty likely to me. Assume she’d bought at the peak. Assume she spent $450,000 on the condo Her losses would have been $225,00, and that wouldn’t have been savings, she would have lost that on money she BORROWED, which meant she’d have lost that amount of the value of the property AND she would have paid interest on the lost equity!
In terms of “It could be worse” , that’s a situation where it could be a lot worse.
If some sort of misfortune strike (and tell her for me honey you wouldn’t believe how fast your life can go in the crapper), she still have an asset (stocks) that can be liquefied in an emergency. Trust me on this one, that’s a big ol’ bonus.
Assuming she hasn’t sold the stocks yet, the loss is only paper. As long as she hangs on to the stock it will recover eventually, even if that’s a year or two.
Speaking as someone who got divorced, fired and evicted in June, tell her to count wht blessings she can. We make our own heaven and hell based on our thoughts and feelings.
John, I used to laugh at your posts but your shit is extremely stale these days. Who are you to pronounce four years of a human life “wasted” because someone lost a little money (and i the end, it’s only a little money)? Did she wake up most mornings glad to be alive? I hope so. Were those days “wasted” because she made a choice that set her back a little? Did she enjoy a meal, fall in love, kiss her family in those four years, and were those experiences “wasted”?
You’re starting to remind me of Pandora and her stinky box full of pestilence and disease. It’s local bulls with that kind of attitude (which incidentally I find most prevalent among Boomers) that I fervently hope get hit the hardest.
It’s only fucking money.
I’ve known people who survived murder attempted. I’ve know people who barely survived cancer. I’ve known people living with HIV. I know a guy who survived the murder of his father and grandfather, three earthquakes, two car crashes, a gas explosion and a kidnap attempt (viva Colombia!
. I don’t think any of us appreciates the country we live in, imperfect as it is.
Oh, John…. one more thing. If bears lost some savings in the stocks market and therefore “wasted” four years, how many years will bulls who bought at the top have “wasted” when prices come crashing down to earth?
Dude? Seriously. Get a new schtick…. even I’m bored with your shit.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
This is probably the greatest real estate crash in history. The crash we are experiencing now will make the 1981 & 1982 crash look like child’s play.
Prices will drop by 60% without even a blink. You can bank on that.
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The Pope Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Larry, thanks for sharing the info and remaining calm in the face of anonymous hecklers.
Alexcanuck, in an ideal world the star system would work differently, but I can’t control the way people use it, and I understand why people use it as an ‘agree/disagree’ vote.
I do like the way that some useful info gets voted up and highlighted, and its either the voting system in its imperfect state, or nothing at all.
Everyone, if you’d prefer to see the voting system disabled vote this comment down, if you want to keep it, vote up.
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Dyugle Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin.....runch.html
Here is a looming crunch in corporates. Check out the spreads at Markit and you can see that linking to CDS spreads will really hurt corporations. It will also blind side investors who think LIBOR or the TED spread are the only spreads that matter. LIBOR and TED spreads are starting to come under the control of the FED and the banks must try to keep them low to keep in the FED’s good books. This is the reason for linking lines of credit to CDS spreads as the banks nor the FED has any control of that yet.
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
“That about sums up many of the most fervent bear posters on this site. Tell her the truth. What’s the truth? Well she’s just wasted at least 4 years of her life.”
Jhon,
Thanks for sharing that bearish insight,what a interior design without any living room,aha fuckkkkk that in next step she is going to loose(lose)her job as well and lots of bears within next six month.
They did not buy on peak of their income obviously they can not buy on the bottom of their net on the top of that a great fear of job loss opps congratulation Idiots STICK A FORK IN YOUR A#S#OLE.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Re Jameson House story posted in the “Free For All” :
WOW!
I know the developers, the Pappajohn family.
However, while I knew they had various holdings, I didn’t realize they were into the Hi-Rise condo development market.
Like I had posted a while back,as a builder once told me, when Firemen, BC Tel employees and Housewives start getting into the development scene, time to bail.
This appears to be the same phenomenon as Toronto, with a land shortage, everyone and their dog gets into the Hi- Rise market, and especially those that shouldn’t be in there in the first place.
Nice folks, but work within one’s limits/expertise, and not get caught up in the gold rush euphoria.
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Nobody!!!! is a tool Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Hey Nobody!!!, how old are you? Where are you from? What do you do for a living?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Globe and Mail’s Gary Mason’s latest article on the Olympic Village Bailout
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....gary+mason
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bdk Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
As No Lympics pointed out above when a nobody warehouse worker who even calls himself NOBODY! gets involved in real estate “investing” then there are no greater fools to join in (if NOBODY! were any stupider he wouldn’t be able to use a computer) then the game of musical chairs is about to end.
There is a chace Nobody is just a troll who pretends to be the stupidest person alive but after this long he/she would have to be pretty crazy to take so much abuse and keep coming back for more. It obviously can’t comprehend or doesn’t read any of the links and it’s source of information is unclear.
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bdk Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Browntown I found a land making machine!
Check out Evelyn (currently on hold)in West Van they are taking 57 houses and making it into 176 units!
Obviously you owe me for finding out about this!
Maybe one day they’ll start using this land making machine on all the surface parking lots downtown and put infill buildings on parking lots in the west end!
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Browntown I found a land making machine!
Browntown is too busy trying to dump his property because he is upside down now
Poor, poor, browntown; he’s caught with a property that won’t sell in this market, and he is losing gobs of his equity everyday.
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Nobody; Yay gotta get out of your warehouse..lots of land making machines, look across the skyline if you see a crane you are looking at a land making machine. Wouldn’t buy one though if I were you they are a dime a dozen now. And land making operators well time for retraining!
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Bdk,
Some links can be read through it’s headline if the reader got brain in his head,Developers are not different than any other investors that’s why they like to bring their rental cranes to fork in the roots but that was good for bears because if those developers decide not to follow their investment plan this city will get dry from new supply.
Remember that $2000 per sq.ft.starting from the bottom part of Vancouver,Aren’t you the one who trolled through archives hmmm yep! yep!! that!!! one ok now you should say thanks to developer for coming out to help the bears but the way projects are going down that will bring the same light out of lost Anecdotal in the archive,did some one say vrngd?.
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exx Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Jameson House project halted. Yet another hole in the ground. I have an idea, they should turn it into a community garden! Those are the latest boom, they’re popping up everywhere downtown
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exx Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
oops! just realized that was the first link at the top that I clicked this morning. Now where did I put my coffee…
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Vansanity Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
The lack of land argument has been discussed ad nauseam. It’s pretty silly when, as someone on here had pointed out, they create land by building upwards, as in towers, etc. Futhermore, there is plenty of land within the GVRD especially just east of Vancouver proper that would be easily accessible for hundreds of thousands of SFH’s.
The real problem isn’t lack of land, it’s lack of proper infrastructure to handle the number of people who could be living in those areas. But this lack of infrastructure won’t save this bubble, through an illusion of demand, get it through your heads sheep. Forget everything else you have heard or read, it’s about LACK OF AFFORDABILITY. Everything else is like tossing fuel on the fire.
—————-
Through my work I get to see a lot of condos, and there are some really crappy places out there. IMO – The key to a good condo unit is the floorplan. I have seen few condos with decent floorplans. I’ve seen condos with more space in the entry hall than the living room. Then they cram everything together as an “open space”. Just terrible, cheap, cookie cutter designs.
WHEN it is time to buy, pay special attention to the floorplan and shy away from anything constructed during this boom. Remember, it’s buyer beware.
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browntowns translator Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
***Some links can be read through it’s headline if the reader got brain in his head***
This means that he doesn’t understand anything since he has no brain in his head.
,****Developers are not different than any other investors that’s why they like to bring their rental cranes to fork in the roots but that was good for bears because if those developers decide not to follow their investment plan this city will get dry from new supply.****
Developers aren’t experts but it’s important to trust what their sales staff tell you because it’s always the truth
****Remember that $2000 per sq.ft.starting from the bottom part of Vancouver***
If you feel $2,000 is a good price to pay per sq ft go for it
***,Aren’t you the one who trolled through archives hmmm yep! yep!! that!!! one ok now you should say thanks to developer for coming out to help the bears but the way projects are going down that will bring the same light out of lost Anecdotal in the archive,did some one say vrngd?.***
Yes BDK is the one who opened up the archives and found some of the dumbest things the bears said just months ago about the market going up forever.
Did you read the Michael Lewis (of Liar’s Poker) article thums or were you too busy drinking chai tea and banging your head against the wall?
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bdk Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
not bears bulls, i got a touch of kriish
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Articles like this make me shake my head.
Real estate gets the Obama boost
Like:
Cheri Dorsey McCann of Sutton Group-Bayview Realty believes people who are waiting for prices to fall further are missing an opportunity to troll for bargains now. The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates, listings are brisk and potential buyers are scarce.
“They [buyers] need to get it. They’re very nervous.”
Yeah, the people holding back from catching those falling knives just don’t get it.
Now when I read this one, I was speechless:
The irony, Ms. McCann says, is that so many potential buyers plan to stay on the sidelines for a few months, she foresees a return to bidding wars when people crowd into the market all at once.
“If everyone waits until the spring, we’ll be back in multiple offers.”
Ohhhh, isn’t it ironic doncha think?
Maybe the G&M should hire some of CanWest’s laid off journalists. Oh… but that would mean someone asking some real questions and doing some research.
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VanTOVan Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
sorry, #64 was me..
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Nobody!!!!! Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
“If you feel $2,000 is a good price to pay per sq ft go for it”
Oye Confused Idiot,
Tell me if todays prices per sq.ft.are similar to what your parents had to pay for your family home?I am in the market still need to buy more around 2010,posted rates are for you,if you don’t like to pay those rates then you owe your childrens a great burden in the near future however it’s different this time for bears because they are on the verge to lose their jobs.
Homes were listed in the market not on the blogs dumbheads.
secret code in 4 year:
CURENT SCORE:267
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Keeping an Eye on Pimps Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Today on the radio, I heard the funniest one to date from the pimps:
They claim that although sales have dropped yoy by over 50%, prices have only dropped by 6 1/2%.
And the icing on the cake:
“The market will recover soon, as more homeowners pull their listings of the market, and new projects planned will not be built, which will reduce inventory”.
One thing I have noticed is that the pimps avoid hard numbers, not once have they mentioned just how much supply is out there.
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pricedoutfornow Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Yes…just as we see prices go down by 30-50%, everyone will certainly feel excited to buy in a declining market. Just like the stock market. Now that I’ve seen my stocks tank by 50-75%, I can’t wait to go and buy more and watch the rest of my money vanish too!!!
Duh…
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Freddy the Freeloader Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
When Vancouver appears in an article in the New York Times does that make it a world class city???
Not if the headlines says “Winter Games Project Hits Snag in Vancouver”
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bdk Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
thank you thums you just made my point.
Why do the children of boomers have to buy any property when they’ll be inheriting more than they need?
One of the reasons those houses in Pt Grey are so expensive is because they were bought up by young professional baby boomers in the 1970’s and these buyers have gone on to join the highest income bracket, once these people start retiring there simply aren’t enough people in Vancouver who earn $330,000 per year wanting to buy a house in PT Grey.
The part that really doesn’t make sense is why I would buy a $500k condo downtown, oops more like $390k now, if I want to move into a house in three years I’ll end up paying $2,000 per month to subsidize the tenant for the next 22 years?
Who wants to be a landlord and lose $24k per year on a condo that loses money?
Get out there thums/browntown/satv/total nobody!!! and buy another condo! Lose money and be a slave to a mortgage for the rest of your life!
BTW you aren’t allowed to put 14 members of your family in there either, the strata will fine you.
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Sold2Soon Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
I am in agreement with the bearish assessment for real estate in the coming months, more so since a friend of mine mentioned Credit Default Swaps to me.
While there is no doubt controversy regarding the valuation of the CDS market, the corporate entaglements are bound to be worrisome. Even if in some cases, such as GM where the losses may have already been factored, in others such as AIG the full impact may yet not have been realized. The fact remains that there are several notable companies in need of bailouts (for reasons that could be tied to CDSs) making all the bailout figures bandied about look like a pittance.
Is it such a leap to think that just as our credit (credit squeeze), cash (job losses) and investments (corporate bankruptcies, stock market crash) dwindle, the real estate market will similarly wither?
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Experts jumping on the bandwagon? You have been deaf to the experts that have voiced concerns regarding the real esate bubble for the last six years – Robert Schiller, Bill Fleckenstein, Jim Grant. They have been very clear on what the fallout would be. Also, with respect to Warren Buffett – I am a 25 year vertern of the financial insdustry, first hearing of Buffett in the late 70’s. I have read half a dozen books on the guy, ranging from fawning biographies to controversial but insightful analyses of his track record. First, his investment horizon is longer than any of the readers on this site to whom you are offering your counsel – billionaires can afford infinite time horizons. Second, Warren Buffett has made some major investment mistakes in airlines and insurance – fortunately, these came later in his career when he could afford to ride through the loss and when his investors would give him the benefit of the doubt – if they happened early in his career, there is a good chance that we never would have heard of the guy. Finally, how many properites did you own in 1980 in BC? That was a sickening retracement of real estate prices because we have never developed a truly world class knowledge-based or manufacturing economy that can pull us out of the depths of a recession quickly. As a result, the recession of the early 80s hammered real esate prices so severly that it took a decade to recover. Finally, the advice that you are trying to shovel is basically to convince people to buy into an asset that is heavily dependent on the use of debt. Clearly you have a vested interest to see suckers buy early since you have an abundance of properties. But if those who can actually get financing follow your advice, you are leading them down a very dangerous path at a very dangerous time. Be prepared to hold on to your properties for a very long time. Most of the suckers you are trying to lure into the market will discover that they won’t be able to get financing for many years. They can’t help you out even if they wanted to. Also, credit market history says that this bear market in real estate will provide a horrible test for anyone who is over-extend in using debt. Property owners who have minimal or no mortage debt will surivive. However, those who have made small down payments will not like what is coming.
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alan Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
The G20: Catching a falling piano
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....onomy.html
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Thanks, Skullboy,
You are a really clear thinker. I will tell my colleague what you have suggested when I see her next.
Rock on
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Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
Robert Schiller, Bill Fleckenstein, Jim Grant. They have been very clear on what the fallout would be. Also, with respect to Warren Buffett – I am a 25 year vertern of the financial insdustry, first hearing of Buffett in the late 70’s
*Hey Nameless Oldman,If you did not buy anything since 1970 what’s the point of reading tonz of book,if you did not care about your life you should have settled up your family oh may be you were too cheap and never had chance to get marry,did you?.
You have been deaf to the experts that have voiced concerns regarding the real esate bubble for the last six years
*So what happend,is there any change that would stop the further growth?
Finally, the advice that you are trying to shovel is basically to convince people to buy into an asset that is heavily dependent on the use of debt.
*Mortgage is not a debt see the difference of interest rates between credit card and mortgages,Mortgage interest rates are always very close to a rent of similar property plus mortgage insurance in case someone lose their job as owner,it’s different than what it would be if tenent lose their jobs.At the end Mortgage provide oppertunity to open door of your dream.
*Oldman,Could you please tell this to Buffet,Lynch,and Shiller that VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN.
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Falling Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Check this out REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM
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Anonymous Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Falling,
Your link says vancouver real estate never go down,please double check it.
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islander Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 11:56 pm
I’d like to vote twice for scullboy.
bdk also did a nice job of explaining why “they’re not making any more land” is the stupidest cliche in real estate. So I propose he gets an extra vote, too. Well said.
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markx Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 12:01 am
On the Olympic village issue, can we reasonable say that Millennium is insolvent, for all intents and purposes? Given that the West Van and Nanaimo projects are all stalled, I find it hard to believe that Millennium can meet all of its debt obligations. To me, any guarantee offered by Millennium is truly worthless. It would be prudent for the City of Vancouver to take over the project asap and accept the loss, rather than throwing money into the black hole.
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jesse Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 12:36 am
“It would be prudent for the City of Vancouver to take over the project asap and accept the loss, rather than throwing money into the black hole.”
Who would build it if not Millenium? The City is running out of time so the only 3 options they have is throwing more money, throwing more money, and throwing more money. Councilors who voted for this project took a huge risk and ignored well reasoned arguments against it. I hope they are held accountable.
It’s not the number of right decisions you make, it’s the magnitude of the bad one that matters.
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CZ Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 1:36 am
Who disagrees that house prices will continue to fall?
http://patrick.net/housing/crash2.html
Real estate related businesses disagree, because they don’t make money if buyers do not buy. These businesses have a large financial interest in misleading the public about the foolishness of buying a house now.
1. Buyers’ agents get nothing if there is no sale, so they want their clients to buy no matter how bad the deal is, the exact opposite of the buyer’s best interest. Agents take $100 billion each year in commissions from buyers. Agents claim the seller pays the commission, but always fail to mention that the seller gets that money from the buyer. Think about it: who brings the money to the table – the seller or the buyer? All money comes from buyers. No buyer, no money.
If a stock broker were to charge 6% on the sale of stock, he would quickly go out of business. Real estate brokers don’t do much more than stock brokers, so why should you give up nearly two years of your working life earning money to pay a realtor for the few hours they may put into helping you buy or sell a house? 6% of the 30 years it takes to pay off a house is 1.8 years of donating your working time to your realtor.
There are good buyer’s agents who really believe they are helping the buyer, but they’re in denial about their conflict of interests. Author Upton Sinclair had a great explanation for this: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
2. Mortgage brokers take a percentage of the loan, so they want buyers to take out the biggest loan possible. Even worse – mortgage brokers get paid according to how BAD the deal is for the buyer. The worse the deal is (higher interest rate, points, fees, etc) the more the mortgage broker gets!
3. Banks get origination fees and then sell most mortgages, so they do not care about the bankruptcy of borrowers. They will lend way beyond what buyers can afford because they lose nothing if the buyer defaults. Banks sell most loans to the government agencies Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The conversion of low-quality housing debt into “high” quality Fannie Mae debt with the implicit backing of the federal government is the main support for the housing bubble. That is ending as Fannie Mae shrinks.
The other way for banks to dump the risk of loan default has been the Wall Street market for mortgage backed securities. Now that mass foreclosures have eliminated the subprime portion of the loan-resale market, banks are under pressure to increase loan quality.
4. Appraisers are hired by mortgage brokers and banks, so they are going to give the appraisals that mortgage brokers and banks want to see, not the truth. Appraisers that kill a deal by telling the truth do not get called back to do other appraisals.
5. Newspapers earn money from advertising placed by realtors, lenders, and mortgage brokers, so papers are pressured by that money to publish the real estate industry’s unrealistic forecasts, and to avoid the fatal words: “prices are falling”. Instead, we may sometimes hear about “softening” or “easing” prices, which sounds so pleasant. At worst, you may hear about a “housing slump”, but you will never hear the mainstream press talk about a crash in prices.
Worse, realtors have a near-monopoly on sale price information, and newspaper reporters never ask realtors hard questions like “how do we know you’re not lying about those prices?” The result is an endless stream of stories reporting that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says it’s a good time to buy. Asking the NAR about housing is like walking into a used car dealership and asking the salesman if today would be a good day to buy a car.
6. Owners themselves do not want to believe they are going to lose huge amounts of money.
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the source Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 1:49 am
Hey crew, just remember that real estate is basically the only investment that guarantees above inflationary returns over the long haul. That is true for any jurisdiction where population growth increases over a fixed land mass. All applicable economic models point to real estate being appropriately priced at the current time. Of course volatility out there is creating some leverage for buyers. You heard it from the source.
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Larry Yatkowsky Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 2:03 am
@The Pope
No worries!
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Vansanity Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 2:06 am
tje source – Jack Clark Francis did a study comparing stocks v. real estate between 1978-2004. The results? Housing delivered a solid but unimpressive annualized return of 8.6%. Commercial property did better at 9.5%. The S&P, however, delivered a crushing 13.4%. So, what was your point?
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the source Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 2:10 am
Read the post more carefully. I said over the long term and over a fixed land mass (ie Vancouver). I think we know what has occured with the stock market of late, check your data more carefully.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 2:17 am
Elder crime problems as Japan ages
http://preview.tinyurl.com/626b4m
“More senior citizens are picking pockets and shoplifting in Japan to cope with cuts in government welfare spending and rising health-care costs in a fast-ageing society.
…
Coverage intensified after a 79-year-old woman slashed two women with a knife near a Tokyo railway station in August. She wanted police to take care of her after she ran away from a shelter for the homeless, Kyodo English News reported at the time.
…
“Some elderly, particularly men who lost their wives, even turn to crimes to be put in jail so they can be fed three times a day,” Yamada said.”
Our future.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 2:34 am
Construction halted at Victoria Hill in New West.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/6bpvph
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The Van Man Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 7:46 am
Question for whomever:
A colleague at work told me she was renting and saving to buy an apartment since 2004 but now she lost her down payment on the stock market.
What can I say to her to calm her mind?
It really depends upon what she owns. Does she own a portfolio of individual stocks or a series of mutual funds?!? Paper loss is different than realized loss, in which she actually sold her equities. Did she?
If it is paper loss, then tell her there’s nothing to worry about it. It’s a temporary setback. As long as she owns good shares of companies or mutual funds or have someone like Odlum Brown rep managed her stuff, then all she has to do is let the events unfold as they go along. It will take sometime, but that’s her savings so she has no debt to worry about. Remember that real estate has an inverse relationship against the stock market, so when the market recovers and goes upwards, the RE will actually go down even more.
As the stock market picks up more steam however, more of that RE money will be siphoned out to be used in speculating the market. This is a shift of the bubble cycle.
It had happened in the mid 1970s and the mid 1980s.
Where do you think all the personal computers, ipods and Nintendos came from huh?
From the innovation and seed money of the mid 70s and 80s, when the economy then were just as bad or worse as we are experiencing now!!
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vanguy Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 7:53 am
This isn’t going to help attract more ‘rich Americans’ buying into Vancouver…
NY Times Nov 14
Now, Vancouver residents prepare to vote in a municipal election on Saturday, the freeze in credit markets and a collapse of the city’s real estate market have made the financing of the 2010 Winter Games a critical issue.
http://tinyurl.com/5pvmma
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The Van Man Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 7:57 am
tje source – Jack Clark Francis did a study comparing stocks v. real estate between 1978-2004. The results? Housing delivered a solid but unimpressive annualized return of 8.6%. Commercial property did better at 9.5%. The S&P, however, delivered a crushing 13.4%. So, what was your point?
I have seen other studies which had pointed out that the return on housing tracks inflation, around 3% YOY. Did this Jack Clark Francis guy actually accounts for expenses the home owner incurred when he annualized his returns for housing, like mortgage, repairs, unforseen? I mean, he can’t really track house returns like stocks because there’s really no maintenances needed to house a piece of paper other than paying a yearly SDB or trading account, which is like hmm nill to some people.
I can understand about commercial property, because it should return better than GICs would.
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greed Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 8:28 am
“If the market turns around, everyone is going to walk away from this saying: ‘What a fantastic deal,’ ” he said. “If the market goes down some more, somebody is going to be holding some property longer than they would care to.”
So what is it going to be? Dont think you have to be a rocket scientist to answer this one. Lets ask Maggie Chandler, maybe her and her felloe pimps will buy some of those units at $1,000/SF.
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Anonb Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 9:02 am
More coverage of the leaky condo saga:
http://tinyurl.com/condos-leak
“Of all the condo apartments built in British Columbia in the 15 years up to 2000, 45 per cent had leak problems.”
“Lower Mainland high-rises that were built more recently and in which problems may take longer to appear could be part of the next wave of leaky buildings.”
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VanTOVan Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 9:07 am
More driving by looking through the rear view mirror:
10 flawed assumptions at the heart of the financial crisis
Ahhh, so it’s a myth that house prices always increase!
Noticeably absent from this guy’s analysis is how it applies to Canada right now rather than just the US until 2006. WTF–is this guy a historian? Do the Mounties stop these flawed assumptions at the border?Note to MSM media: Give your readership something that can help them understand what’s going on now instead of forcing them to extrapolate Canada’s risks.
This reminds me a little of how the British media was treating the US housing collapse last year–with an implicit tsk tsk! I say, those risky Americans
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Anonb,
The name “Millstone Creek” invites mixed metaphors.:P
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squidly77 Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 10:12 am
howe sounds bail out beer
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....-beer.html
for all those who drank the kool-aid
http://www.eleykishimoto.co.uk.....-thumb.jpg
cheers for the upcoming laughs
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SurreyJoe Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Regarding Victoria Hill halt that’s got to make units that have completed a tough sell. Instead of a master planned community you have condo’s along side half finished buildings and muddy fields.
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Anonymous Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Ok, is anyone going out to vote today?
Who do you think I should vote for:
1. Gregor Robertson
2. Peter Ladner
How would I go about helping with the election — driving people around to vote, etc.?
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bdk Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Taking your house off the market now is a great plan.
Just wait until you are even more desperate to sell and the buyer will pay more!
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
It’s all going according to plan.
The pumpers entice the fools to drink the Kool Aid,
The greater fools are encouraged to keep drinking, in spite of the fact some of the victims are staggering, while some have already fallen and wading in their own vomit.
The media invites the pumpers to give their expert advice, which they are only to glad to give.
“It’s just a temporary fine tuning of the market, it will pick up in the spring”
Special thanks to my friends: Bill Good, Pastrick, Muir, Jurock, Rennie, and very special thanks, to the fine people at VANOC.
Especially you Bill, please keep enticing the very few fools left, by 2010 we don’t want a single potential buyer left.
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scullboy Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Anon 74:
Thanks, I like to think of myself as either the anti-krrrish or SOMEBODY!!! It’s amazing how a full length mirror to the head can rattle your brains in just the right way, apparently.
FYI, it’s scullboy, not skullboy. A scull is a small boat you row like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowing_(sport)
As an aside I rowed in the boat in that photo! Wow, I’m like one degree from Wikipedia greatness! I can’t believe they gave it to a women’s team….. it’s a beast to get in the water.
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oracle Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
more info on bubble:
http://www.tradersnarrative.co.....-2066.html
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watching the market Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
I love scullboy!!! Loved post #46.
bdk, you made me laugh with the land making machine comment. I think that has to be the worst excuse for ridiculously high RE prices that the bulls like to trot out. There are surface parking lots in downtown Van for crying out loud. And surface lots all over the west end, particularly West of Denman (I am looking at one right now, the footprint of the parking lot is 2x the size of the associated building’s footprint). And drove along west second last week between Cambie and Main…. um that entire neighbourhood below Broadway is basically SINGLE STORY industrial/commercial. Earth to bulls: it is called REDEVELOPMENT.
Evelyn is a very interesting case in West Van (I am from there and my folks live a few blocks away in a condo at Ambleside). With all due respect to Rob Chipman (of blog fame and who bought an over priced house in North Van last year, based on the “it is the same as West Van, but a well kept secret”). As we can all see, WV SFH are really struggling, with over 2 yrs inventory at current sales levels. North Van is going to go the same way, it is just a little later on the curve. Anyone who really knows the North Shore, knows that there are plenty of reasons why WV has always traded at a premium to NV (no first nations reserves, no industrial port, no big box shopping, actually practically no retail in WV, more like Point Grey/Kerrisdale style neighbourhoods). And tons of parks near the water and lots of beaches. Waterfront in NV is basically all industrial… (and polluted)….Deep Cove is a bit like Horseshoe Bay, but that is pretty much it for neighbourhood comps….people who have paid a $1M + for oldtimers in NV have gotten totally hosed in this last bubble… of course, just my opinion!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Hmmm:
Seems the key to get a negative score is say
” VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN !!!!!!!! ”
Nahhhhh ( can NOT be true )
BTW I have booby trapped the RED arrow ahahahahah careful now
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Anonymous Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Hmmm, seems all you need to get a negative score is ask about the mayoral election today.
Seems no one is interested. Sorry to have bothered you all with my questions.
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VancouverBanker Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
watching the market Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
“Evelyn is a very interesting case in West Van (I am from there and my folks live a few blocks away in a condo at Ambleside).”
Just in case some of you haven’t heard, the Evelyn project is in serious trouble. Contractors have at least $400,000 in liens registered against the project so it will not be given any more money bank funding until it gets sorted out. Don’t forget, this is a Millennium project i.e. the jokers who are doing the Olympic Village disaster.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Anon with the election obsession:
1) A bit late to START thinking about the election.
2) This is an RE blog, with interest in politics and economics insofar as it is a HUGE influence on Vancouver RE.
3)Who the H. are you? A good topical question from anonymous can get some thoughtful responses, a good off-topic question from a regular poster deserves consideration, but you’re neither case.
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VancouverBanker Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
jesse Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 12:36 am
“It would be prudent for the City of Vancouver to take over the project asap and accept the loss, rather than throwing money into the black hole.”
Who would build it if not Millenium? The City is running out of time so the only 3 options they have is throwing more money, throwing more money, and throwing more money. Councilors who voted for this project took a huge risk and ignored well reasoned arguments against it. I hope they are held accountable.”
I think the only people in this whole mess who MIGHT be held accountable will be Millennium. The City had better take them to the cleaners: realise on all of their security they supposedly have other than the Olympic Village itself (although I’m really doubting that it’s worth anything since it’s all secret), go after all of their personal assets, and force them to declare bankruptcy. They deserve to be wiped out completely from the market given: their arrogance in the way they have handled the project (they could have easily pre-sold the whole project back in 2006 if they had not been so greedy); and the fact that taxpayers will likely be on the hook for AT LEAST $290 million and likely much more by the time this thing finishes.
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Anonymous Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Alexcanuck: Your a snob, man.
Sometimes I can get over 50 hits and other times I get -5. That is why I am anonymous. Because I KNOW that I am getting hits for the right reasons when I do. Unlike those of you who get hits just for name recognition. SHAME!
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Anonymous Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
As I said before, you guys’ critical thinking skill suck sometimes.
Can’t think on your own? Why not let Alexcanuck or some other regular blogger do it fer ya?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
C,mon…..
Millenium has the City by the bloody short hairs.
Sure, City of Vancouver , go ahead and do “X” to Millenium.
Millenium will counter with liens, lawsuits…the project then freezes…tick- tock /tick- tock/ tick tock goes the 2010 Olympic clock. City has to complete the Olympic Village by Sept. 30 , 2009 and turnkey it to VANOC by Nov. 1 2009 or El$$$$se !
A construction worker on the Olympic Village site was already saying they may have to work 3 shifts/day and work 24/7.
Sure..Millenium/Fortress has its own self – inflicted problems with BlackComb / Whistler…the Evelyn in West Van….. Nanaimo Hotel…..
However, maybe Millenium /Fortress ace in the hole “insurance ” was Vancouver Olympic Village…N-O-B-O-D-Y ….I repeat N-O-B-O-D-Y dares take them down on any project…otherwise the domino affect is the Olympic Village and the City of Vancouer aka VANOC takes the hit 100% and has to log Stanley Park and sell it off (LOL) to finance the obligations it indentured its very own citizens to.
PS: Pretty smart Millenium /Fortress…. a tip of the hat to ya.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
West Van versus North Van
Now….Using critter -cull thinksin’ logic
It is a well – known fact that North Van is basically a farm team for West Van wannabees.
Conversely North Van exists for West Van nouveau riche’ (redundant) to crash in – between bankruptcies.
Trophy Wife “limited – entry” permit runs from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 . ( No bag limit).
If West Van RE inventory is sitting stagnant ….reason “WHY” is pretty obvious , isn’t it ? Yeeeeesshh !!!
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arit Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Anonymous (all of you),
I tend to disagree with your approach. When you chose to post under anonymous, you disconnect your post from any of your otehr post, but you associate yourself with each and every post made by any “anonymous”. Every bs ever spouted under anon becomes you.
Chose yourself a nickname, you will still be anonimous, but your posts will have a common submitter, and your opinion will be better understood as a collection of all your posts.
I also personally think that “anons” are more insecure, and they chose to stay anon because they are afraid of the criticism. But in this blog, the criticism works pretty_well_thank_you even if you are anon.
Best regards
arit
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Montery Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 12:55 am
The way I see it… If you are anonymous, you’re a “Anonymous Coward”. I always wonder why, if you have something to contribute, why would you hide? Unless you know you are spewing BS — in which case, why are you posting in the first place?
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Northeast Canuck Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 2:10 am
Here’s a link to the latest from the BCREA:
http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2008-10.pdf
My favourite quote is:
““Home sales are unlikely to fall much further,” added Muir. “While the provincial economy has weakened, the fundamentals support a higher level of home sales than experienced last month.”
Ah, those “fundamentals”. Can’t argue with that! Whenever you can’t think of any other reason to talk up the market, you can always quote the fundamentals and sound like you are really in the know. Others will nod sagely, and think you must have a deeper level of knowledge than mere mortals, because you have knowledge of the “fundamentals”!
And if those “fundamentals” include the ridiculous “they’re not making any more land” rubbish, look no further than Hong Kong. They aren’t making any more land there either but they are experiencing a crash as well, just as they did in the 90’s and many times before that.
Gotta love those fundamentals!
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scullboy Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 2:18 am
Watching the market:
Hey thanks, I love you too!
Now if I can just start making money as a chef, I’ll be golden. My whole business plan boils down to : show up at people’s houses, make outlandish jokes, cook them dinner and charge for it.
To the anon people who criticize those of us who like to post under a nickname:
I don’t know about the others who post under a name, but I do it because I prefer people to know which statements come from me directly. Sometimes you guys mod ‘em up and sometimes you don’t. It’s helpful to know which comments people don’t like.
I made a lot of jokes about Krrrish’s mom, which Drachen said he didn’t like. In deference to him I stopped. The only way I could know he didn’t like the jokes was by him expressing himself.
Sometimes I mod people up, sometimes I do nothing and sometimes I mod em down. Granted I’m automatically going to respect anything VHB writes even if I disagree with it. On the other hand, I’m automatically going to give browntown et. al. the same respect I’d give a poo flinging monkey. In both cases however, it’s not so much a name recognition thing. In both cases it’s based on past postings.
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readon Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 3:08 am
Hey now, easy on the poo-flinging monkeys. I don’t think such fecafilliac simians should be denigrated by being lumped in the same looney-bin as “browntown” and co.
OT, or not. I usually stop reading after a Open Topic thread passes 50 or so posts, as the nutters generally infect it. Good to see my usual practice is vindicated.
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Gadwin Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 3:47 am
Inventory, a user from Rob Chipman’s blog, posted the following numbers for REBGV:
>NOVEMBER 1 to 15 2008 REBGV SFH+TH+APT
>Gross Sales 202,487,294
>Units Listed 1,643
>Units Sold 389
>NOVEMBER 2007 REBGV SFH+TH+APT
>Gross Sales 1,703,949,484
>Units Listed 3,531
>Units Sold 2,952
http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=154#comments (comment #930)
That’s pretty interesting, because if we extrapolate the second half of November in 2008 based on these numbers, the units sold and gross sales will be 1/4 of November 2007.
It seems like the real estate market has just shut down in Vancouver. I’m guessing the extremely poor sales is related to the credit crisis and financial crisis.
The deep price cuts will come eventually if the market is this bad. Last month, the benchmark detached SFH dropped by -4.2% or $30K. Somehow, we may see more months like last month if the real estate market is indeed grinding to a halt.
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Keepin an Eye on the Pimps Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 9:17 am
“It seems like the real estate market has just shut down in Vancouver. I’m guessing the extremely poor sales is related to the credit crisis and financial crisis.”
Gadwin: The bursting of the Real Estate Bubble in Vancouver has nothing to do with the credit crunch.
Bubble simply blow up, always have, always will. The Bubble in the US burst during low unemployment, low interest rates, and while the believers still believed RE prices could only go up.
If the US and other governments could have kept the bubble going, there would be no banking crises, or toxic mortgages.
Homedebtors, who could not make the payment at higher rates, would simply sell to a greater fool and pocket the profits.
No, the credit crunch has nothing to do with the Vancouver Real Estate Crash, remember what the pimps have been saying all along:
“Real Estate is Local, and Vancouver is insulated from the limits of local incomes, or the local’s ability to finance, because we have international investors, who buy with cash”.
They go on to say:
” low interest rates/easy financing, have had nothing to with the run up in prices, it’s all solid fundamentals supporting the prices”.
I do, however, think the consequences of our crash will be much worse than the UK, US, Spain et al, because their bubble blew up in much better Macro conditions.
Our housing crash will be in full swing as the Olympic debt comes to surface, the lumber industry is on the ropes, oil is already below $60.00, construction is dead, tourism is dead, and the taxpayer has lost it’s appetite for bailouts.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 9:30 am
I do, however, think the consequences of our crash will be much worse than the UK, US, Spain et al, because their bubble blew up in much better Macro conditions.
Wow. Just wow. You are as much in a cocoon as as Muir and Pastrick if you think Vancouver will crash as badly as Spain and the UK. We just aren’t a worldclass city! Not in lifestyle, not in public spaces and events, not in architecture, not in weather, and not in RE crashes either. We do have a shot at the worst crash in North America, but don’t even talk about taking on Spain! We are a great team in the bush league, don’t let it go to your head.
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Keepin an Eye on the Pimps Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Alexcanuck:
In the Mediterranean region prices got so out of hand and so quickly the locals were literally priced out in the early stages of the bubble, so the mess will be contained to mainly the German and the UK fools.
I can tell you some of the locals were in on the game and staged bidding wars to get the Northern Europeans to out bid each other.
The rich and sophisticated Northern Europeans didn’t get so burned, they bought quality, and they can hold on forever.
But the working stiffs turned financial geniuses from Liverpool and Glasgow, got what the greedy fools deserved.
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jesse Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 10:19 am
“The rich and sophisticated Northern Europeans didn’t get so burned, they bought quality, and they can hold on forever.”
I wonder how many City bankers bought estates in Spain. One can only hope they have enough collective incomes left to support such properties.
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browntown Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 10:55 am
oh yeah nutsters! can you smell what scully is cooking! bacon an eggs brother save me trip to dennys! talking in high pitched voice to sound like alexcanuck! ha ha the next leg up is going to be doozy!
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readon Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 11:02 am
oh do shut up.
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Mike Stewart Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Its unfortunate to see the investors in Jameson House lose money, but less supply in the Vancouver Real Estate Market going forward is a good thing.
It reduces volatility moving forward and the investors who bought into these pre-sales get their money (with interest!!) back rather than losing their shirts when they try to sell in a down market.
I am a Downtown Vancouver Realtor and I have heard from a source in the development world that if a project is not out of the ground now it will not be coming out. I guess that also means some projects being built as well. Oh well, more community gardens! I really like the one at Davie and Burrard.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Re Vancouver Civic elections
So…
You think Vancouver is in trouble now, wait till that new Leftie majority council has its way. All those flakes and flakey favours owed to special interest groups…ouch !!!!.
Rather ironic that it appears Peter Ladner and the NPA took the fall for the Olympic Village fiasco , when lots of Vision and Cope members were equally responsible or “guilty”.
Perhaps the lesson to be learned is let a Leftie be Chair of the City Finance Committee and then let them be the bullet/spear catchers.
All the shit stuck to Ladner while everyone else had Teflon suits and Teflon diapers on underneath.
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Just saw an infomercial for home auctions in the Seattle area.
http://www.auctiontoday.com/
IIRC Ritchie Bros. auctioned off homes on the island. When will we see auctions in Vancouver/FV?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Mike Stewart:
Perhaps expand on that comment re: ” If a project does not come out of the ground now it will not be coming out “.
Are you implying in the short term OR the long term ?
Myself, I am extrapolating re: the downside of the Hi – Rise condo market. So much land is primed for development, with approvals in place and excavations in place… but the crucial financing has been pulled.
With all this potential, how can a developer prime the pump…given each of these projects are costing 100’s of Millions of dollars each. Will we have say 1 project every 10 months ? I foresee a major changes in lending practices which will trickle down to the purchasers. Which forestalled project will be the first to test the waters. How conservative will the business be? These stalled projects still have overhead..ie property taxes etc.
If a project is delayed…the plans may have to be changed ie new building code requirements.
I say this in light of some articles I have read that LOW density may be the future…less risk . A low density 100 unit condo project built in say 3 phases may be better than 100 units in a single Hi Rise. In other words, this hi -density orgy has created its own black hole it may not escape from for years.
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scullboy Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Hey Mike,
Nice Website, and I mean that sincerely. I like the unit in The Spot. It reminds me of the penthouse loft I owned a few years back in Toronto, except my place had 2 parking spots, 20″ ceilings triple the counter space in the kitchen and cost of what your listing’s asking price.
I’ll be back in the market once the term “investor” has been completely purged from every realtor’s vocabulary.
Oh and Browntown: You *would* eat at Denny’s, wouldn’t you?
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Partisan Spectator Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
I have conducted an experiment.
Pretended I will be selling my house soon and asked my realtor to come and talk. The next door tween home was sold for 650k a year ago and I kept in mind 500k figure (my glass is always half-empty). The realtor was quite confident about 560k.
After we almost agree on the subject, I suggested the following. Instead of standard 7.5% for the first 100k + 1% for all above 100k, I suggested to reverse calculations and offered 0.8% on first 500k and 7% on all above.
She did not say “No”!
I just enjoyed her arguments for next 30 min and told her she has only 24 hours to think about my offer as I had 3 other realtors offering their service.
Just wondering, how long would it take for realtors to start bidding wars on contracts?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
A realtor we know submitted the following:
When you sign a real estate agreement… while you can ” fire ” the realtor, but are still obligated to the terms of the contract, ie they are still owed commission if you sell the listing within the time frame of the contract.
In addition, while no one can force you to sell…if the realtor brings you an offer that matches your asking price, you can be legally obligated by the realtor to pay the realtor the equivalent of the commission you negotiated , even if you refuse to sell.
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macchiato Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
“Its unfortunate to see the investors in Jameson House lose money, but less supply in the Vancouver Real Estate Market going forward is a good thing.”
yeah, less supply for who? This wasn’t V6A.
Those places were 500K-$5 000 000. This is for the rich, this was *never* going to be accessible at a normal person’s price.
The Ritz and the Jameson were going to cost $700 million to build … I hypothesize that the combined loss of $700 million in economic activity (how many person years of jobs was that??) between the Ritz and the Jameson will result in greater negative impact on the RE marker in general, on the demand side, then what the negative impact would have been on the supply side if they went ahead, at least in terms of the ‘normal person markets’.
So, I see this as bearish news overall, demand for average person housing, just took a hit.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Jameson story in today’s Vancouver Province
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....b2c8f7ce36
” A splashy jewel of a downtown condo development — which included plans for a parking lot in which residents’ cars would be whisked away on a conveyor belt — has been put on hold after a bank pulled funding, the latest in a growing list of failed residential projects”.
” The kitchens were to include countertop islands that could be hydraulically raised and lowered and the suites were to have in-floor radiant heating throughout.”
“They were to include membership in the exclusive Terminal City Club across the street and the robotic parking lot.”
“The space-age-looking tower with rounded corners, designed by famed London architects Foster and Partners, was described as minimalist and “sexy” by Rennie two years ago”.
Hey were’s Bob Rennie when you need him…Hiroshima meets the Enola Gay ?
PS: I’d hate to ask the strata fees !
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squidly77 Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
think that you can just walk away from your mortgage
better think again
You received 100% financing because your credit credentials were excellent. Should you decide to hand in the keys, the mortgage company will obtain legal rights to sell your house, list your house with a real estate company, sell it for whatever they can get, pay the real estate commission, pay the lawyers who obtained permission to sell it, settle their mortgage debt, then go after you for the balance. Because house prices may have gone down, and because the house was sold for less than current market values (because the lender was selling it instead of you), this difference could be in the tens of thousands of dollars. The lending company will then obtain a court judgement for that amount of money and lodge the debt against what used to be your “good” name. Your credit rating will now tank! Anytime in the next five years, your lending company can go after your bank account, your paycheques, an inheritance, etc. and in return, you cannot borrow any money without your mortgage company attaching those funds. After five years, the mortgage company can renew their judgement against you for another five years. You won’t be able to buy another home for a long time.
http://www.ottawasun.com/Speci.....91441.html
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
This re: the Ritz Carlton
It is a comment posted on the Jameson story in the Vancouver Province
” Excavation at the Ritz Carlton resumed about two weeks ago. Contrary to what some have said re hole stabilization for an extended shut-down, they’re digging, blasting rock, etc, and reportedly going down to the originally planned depth. Also the marketing site, after being off-line for a couple of weeks, is back up. I’ll leave the rest to your crack reporters “.
Anyone able to corroborate this ?
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macchiato Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
re: Jameson:
At an average price of $3 million for each suite, buyers had committed over $300 million in total sales and had put down secured deposits of 15 to 25 per cent.
So between this one and the Ritz, Rennie would be out commissions on probably more than $1 000 000 000 worth of sales.
The project was being marketed by Vancouver condo king Bob Rennie. He didn’t return a message yesterday
I guess not, but can’t remember if I’ve ever read this guy not available for comment.
How would his contract work, does anyone know if Rennie’s company gets anything when the project is cancelled?
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
The way I see it… If you are anonymous, you’re a “Anonymous Coward”.
Montery: Who ARE you, anyway, Montery. Come on, take off that mask!
I also personally think that “anons” are more insecure, and they chose to stay anon because they are afraid of the criticism.
Arit: I resemble that remark!
3)Who the H. are you?
Alexcanuck: I should ask: Who the he** are YOU? Care to share your identity with us, mister masked man???
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
To the anon people who criticize those of us who like to post under a nickname:
Scullboy, you got it backwards. Alexcanuck was criticising those of us who choose to post anonymously. He said Who the H. are you? to my posting asking about the election.
By the way, I am the one who was going to hire you to cook for me at Christmastime.
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bdk Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I work and live really close to the Ritz Carlton site and there doesn’t appear to be any activity going on and the signage is still gone, the website “vancouversturn” is not back up and running either. If you walk up the alley you can see right in it and there is still the same backhoe that was there the day the excavator left.
My amateur guess is that they’ll put a parking lot on the site since having a 100 foot hole in the ground is a major liability.
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freako Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Peter Simpson makes me f*cking gag. Is the situation really so dire that he has to resort to riding the Obama wave? His column makes absolutely no sense at all.
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bdk Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/National
Interesting stuff about the site.
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Vansanity Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
the source – I get your point, but it is based on a flaw. Your argument loses because the same one can be made for stocks, but only more impressively. You are discussing long-term trends. No question, both RE & stocks make money long-term. Stocks are historically better by 5%.
Than you bring up the recent stock crash (short-term) and ignore long-term again. Will you ignore long-term trends if housing prices drop by 50% or more over the next 60 months? I doubt it. It will be your best argument when prices tank.
I have made mistakes. In the past I wanted so much to be right, I would ignore data/facts that stood against my view. Every time I’ve let my ego rule, I’ve always lost. Good luck to you.
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readon Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
bdk said:
My amateur guess is that they’ll put a parking lot on the site since having a 100 foot hole in the ground is a major liability.
——-
They could just fill it with water, let it freeze, and make it a 2010 ice rink!
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freako Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
More on Peter Simpson.
On July 12 of this year, he posted a similar rambling defense of the industry:
Recently, real estate skinned a knee, and everyone scrambled over each other to dial 911. But did the market really take a nasty tumble?
The reality reflects a Mark Twain quote: “The report of my death is greatly exaggerated.”
Greatly exaggerated?
Back then he said:
But Cameron Muir, the respected chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, said: “There is no evidence of any kind of substantial decline in prices.”
…
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts prices in Metro Vancouver will increase eight per cent this year and five per cent in 2009. Not heady numbers, but not bad either. Our situation here is a far cry from the misery experienced in many U.S. housing markets.
But now he disowns these “respected sources”. What a friend.
My goodness, what a difference a year makes. So much for the soothsaying qualities of crystal balls.
What a disingenious asshole.
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Freako,
Try not to get too worked up over Peter Simpson. Even a fifth grader can see through him. Early on in childhood children realize that even their heroes sell out by advertising sh*t they don’t believe in. Anyone who bought in the past few years knew it was bunk, but greed can be a strong supressor over common sense. Like I said before, it was HARD to withstand the hype. It took a lot of psychic energy, but I would rather be psychologically exhausted than financially screwed!
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
interesting audio interview with mike mish shedlock:
http://www.howestreet.com/audi.....layer/1026
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Basically desperate sellers today are saying “I bought this place for 100% more than it’s fundamental value, but I am willing to give you 10% off the price I paid (you will pay only 90% overvalue) for you to trade places with me. Then I can preserve my solvency and you can be the one left holding the bag. Oh, yes, did I say I will be willing to look at all offers? That is quite generous of me, doncha think?”.
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rubberduckie Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
I went to a couple of open houses today, just for kicks. The realtor at a nice Dunbar house said that there are tons of people who would love to buy the house, but they can’t get their places sold.
I’d like to thank all the would-be-first-time-buyers for not stepping on this unsupported property ladder, and for helping to seize things up for a nice big price correction!
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Re-diculous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
So my wife and I decided to go to a few open houses during our walk today just for fun. A couple of interesting experiences.
1. A Coal Harbour 3 bedroom place which wasn’t that great for > $1.2M. On the way up the elevator, I was asking the agent questons to which her response was “I can find that out for you” I asked: “Are you not the listing agent?” to which she replied: “No. I’m the buying agent”. I have to say, that’s a new one on me – I just met her, and she’s my buying agent! Her total value add in the deal would be gaining access to the place and pushing the right button on the elevator…what a hoot!
2. Went to another place, listed for just shy of $800K. The agent said it had been listed for 3 months and has not yet reduced the price!! I said “what?” Agent’s rational: it is much better value than equivalent sized places listed in Coal Harbour! Oh well, the owner moved out and is now losing > $2K per month rent on top of his carrying costs.
…what a lesson in denial.
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scullboy Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Anon 137:
Some of the other posters seemed to be criticizing those of us who don’t post anonymously, it seemed because he or she felt we automatically get modded up based on out nicknames.
I can never telll you anons apart…. y’all look the same to me!
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VanTOVan Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
I was chatting with a realtor yesterday and here were the nuggets he threw me:
-Since Obama’s election, his phone (and his colleagues’ phones) have starting ringing again.
-Inventory is at an all time high right now, but it will be half of what it is now by next May
-In his opinion, the open house he was showing was likely at the bottom: “so at best, you’ll be able to get something like it for this price in the Spring, but probably a little higher”
Three spoonfuls of BS=there’s never been a better time to get into the market. Typical for Canada, the real estate association here must be feeding on the American’s sloppy seconds… have they hired that NAR clown, David Lereah (sp?) or did they just dig up his old playbook?
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Keeping an Eye on the Pimps Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
It would be a tough job for me to choose the candidate for” RE Pimp of the Year Award”. Bill Good is definitely, a top contender, Muir has shown tenacity, but right now I am leaning towards Simpson.
He has recently been the most prolific. In a recent Vancouver Sun he points out that during the Olympics billions of eye balls will be on Vancouver.
Billions of eye balls, wow, is he implying that all those people whose eye balls are on Vancouver will finally discover us and move here and open more Dollar Giant Stores?
Torino, Salt Lake City, Beijing, move over and let Vancouver take over.
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Anon 137:
Some of the other posters seemed to be criticizing those of us who don’t post anonymously, it seemed because he or she felt we automatically get modded up based on out nicknames.
Wrong again. The point was that I choose to remain anonymous because I do not want to be “modded up”as it were just because of my name. I want to be modded up because I say something interesting and insightful.
Also, I was NOT criticizing those who choose to use a name. I was DEFENDING those of us who do not choose to use one because I was being attacked by Alexcanucklehead.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Oooh, I got the anons fighting! do I win a prize? Now, you two stay in turn so I can tell who’s winning.
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Alex, you knucklehead, there is only one anon involved in this little drama you created.
I hope you are proud of yourself for polluting up the blog. For godsake, old man, give it a rest.
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Alexcanuck Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Oooh, I got the anons fighting! do I win a prize? Now, you two stay in turn so I can tell who’s winning.
Yah, you win the BOOBY prize for being such a BOOB!
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Dr Topper Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
“He has recently been the most prolific. In a recent Vancouver Sun he points out that during the Olympics billions of eye balls will be on Vancouver.”
He’s right! Billions of eyeballs will see Vancouver RE tanking and ‘run away, run away….’ (with apologies to Monty).
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Re Gadwin post 117:
…if we extrapolate the second half of November in 2008 based on these numbers, the units sold and gross sales will be 1/4 of November 2007.
Yah, Gadwin, that is exactly what I had said over on Chipman’s blog. Seems you have no qualms about steeling my ideas and reposting them here. This is the second time you’ve done it. How about giving credit when credit is due, dude?
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scullboy Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Alex man, for some reason the site posted me as anon.
Anon dude,
Sorry about that. I mis-read what you wrote, hope we’re cool.
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Hey Gadwin,
Look at post 307 of Chipman’s blog and you will see that I first pointed out the 66% decrease in sales this November compared to last.
It really bugs me when you steal my observations and repost them as your own. I don’t know why, but I would really prefer that you give credit.
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Anonymous Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Hey Scullboy,
Ya we’re cool. I know you to be a cool, funny guy. I still think you rock.
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Vansanity Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
VanTOVan – Do you know what year that realtor was licensed in? I have heard that crap before,and the one I heard if from was licensed in Jan of 2008. So obviously he has seen a lot in his lengthy career.
Prices going back up? Hit a bottom already? Barack increasing consumer confidence? More like: DEAD CAT BOUNCE ANYONE? That’s IF it were to go up at all and that is a huge IF.
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Gadwin Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 12:48 am
Anonymous #159, first have the balls to post under a real name. You are spineless for not using your own name.
Secondly, I gave credit to the user Inventory, who posted the stats on November 15th. The extrapolation was done on the Nov 15th stats whereas you made the observation on Nov 9th. You didn’t post the stats, Inventory posted the stats.
Thirdly, it’s absurd for you to COPYRIGHT extrapolations based on somebody else’s stats. Anybody can come up with the same extrapolations on Inventory’s stats, not just you.
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patriotz Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 1:45 am
“He has recently been the most prolific. In a recent Vancouver Sun he points out that during the Olympics billions of eye balls will be on Vancouver.”
Reminds me of the dot-com bubble, when the “analysts” threw out boring old metrics like price/earnings and came up with new ones like price/eyeballs.
How did that turn out?
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Anonymous Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 5:37 am
Gadwin: A thief is a thief no matter whether they use a made-up name or not!
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Spineless Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 6:01 am
Japan in recession:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081116.....onomy.html
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Big Balls Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 6:06 am
Luxury Condo: MUST SELL OR LOSE!
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....02951.html
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Anonymous Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 6:49 am
Hi, can someone help me find a graph.
I think I’ve seen it on this blog before. It shows the real estate drop since peak for several cities including Vancouver. I think most of the other cities were US cities.
Does anyone know where I can find this?
Thanks
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Keeping an Eye on the Pimps Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 6:55 am
http://economictimes.indiatime.....722300.cms
I guess, this kind of a thing doesn’t happen in Vancouver.
Greed, beauty parlour worker turned Real Estate Tycoon….
Our housing industry professionals all adhere to a strict code of conduct; they are experts with credentials clearly unattainable by most mere mortals.
Nah, Vancouver is no cesspool.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Anonymous 165:
Are you the same anonymous? This is demonstrating the problem with multiple anonymous posts. Why should I lift a finger to help someone who called me names?
Or were you asking a poster named “Someone”?
That little jab out of the way, and just so other posters who know me as Alexcanuck will continue to respect both my sagacity and magnanimity, are you looking for this?
I think WBWYCDecideToChangeYourNameYetAgain (who has earned my respect) adapted it and put it up first.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Hey Pope:
Check this one out.
In today’s Vancouver Province.
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....c9b9423e50
” Owners of two condo complexes in BC have lost substantial amounts from their reserve funds after making risky investments “.
I wonder how much of that goes on….tip of the iceberg?
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buff_butler Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Very interesting article. Its unclear if the condo owners knew and/or voted on the investment or not. If they did then I have no sympathy for them.
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Tony Danza Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Its unfortunate to see the investors in Jameson House lose money, but less supply in the Vancouver Real Estate Market going forward is a good thing.
Hey Mike, what’s the matter? Did the bitter renting bears chase you off of Chipman’s site? You have a brilliant marketing campaign going on here Mikey, it’s so smart to go and trash talk the bitter renting bears when they’re probably some of the only people who’ll be buying anything from your ilk in the next few years.
Things must be very slow for you to suddenly spend your days regaling anonymous blog posters with your “very nice offers” you’re presenting on downtown condos. Why don’t you go chase down some unemployed condo workers maybe they’re looking to get into the condo flipping game in their spare time.
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Anonymous 165 Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Alexcanuck – thanks for the graph, that’s what I was looking for. I’m going to ignore the jab.
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VanTOVan Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 10:41 am
@Vansanity
His card says he has been in the business for more than 20 years.
The funny thing is that he is a very sharp guy. He knew a lot about the area and what to look for in a house, etc. And he had a nice edge about him–the kind of hardass you want negotiating on your side.
To me, it just goes to show that it’s not just idiots that buy in to the Party line. Not every Jonestown cult member was a moron; even intelligent people have a curious myopia at times. Or maybe this realtor was the one handing out the koolaid…
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k9dr Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Just for everyones information. I have been tracking condo and house sales at Paul Boenisch site. (kudos to him)
http://www.nvcondos.realpagema.....aPageId=10
For the month of November Greater Vancouver has been averaging 48 condo/house sales a day. Unless sales pick up, we are on track to sell only 912 for the entire month (compared to almost 3000 last year)
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Vansanity Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
VanTOVan – Interesting. I mean, we’re all smart enough to know that you should take everything said by someone with a vested interest in the subject matter, with a handful of salt.
It’s a strange conflict between realtors, as one sells and another buys. Two realtors representing two opposing sides to a sale. Vs. say a used car salesman who represents himself (the seller) and then you, the buyer, on your own.
The common interest of both sides to a real estate transaction is the sale itself and the price. Both gain when there are sales. Grain of salt for sure.
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Drachen Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
“even intelligent people have a curious myopia at times.”
Intelligence and independence of thought are not directly correlated. Many of my acquaintances who are highly specialized intellectually are people who I would rate quite low on a scale for independence or intellectual curiosity outside their specialized field. I think Malcom Gladwell explains it pretty well in “The Tipping Point” when he talks about Mavens. Many of us here have what he calls the “Maven” personality (I know I do). Mostly in my experience Mavens are quite intelligent people but not all intelligent people are Mavens.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maven
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paul Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
a lot of interesting stuff happening in Toronto as well these days. no question that some of it is of “concern”
http://pauljohnston.com