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November 21st, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Mike Stewart is spamming all the local bear blogs!
November 21st, 2008 at 10:46 pm
A friend of a friend inherited a $4.3 million dollar house in Shaughnessy and so far the only credible offer he’s received was for $1.7..
Which means, of course, he actually inherited a $1.7 million house.
November 21st, 2008 at 10:41 pm
With a global loss in appetite in investing in real estate, coupled by a sharp cutback in spending because everybody wants to hoard cash these days, we could possibly experience a reduction in demand similar to 81/82 or maybe even worse than 81/82.
What would be interesting is if somebody had the statistics for “number of sales/population of Vancouver” going back to 1980 so we can compare how today’s sales/population compares to 81/82 sales/population, the demand in Vancouver is just there like New York and Tokyo.
November 21st, 2008 at 10:17 pm
That renters smile was wiped off my face for a split second there; how dare Kelowna challange Vancouver for title to biggest real estate decline. Dont you know we have the Olympics? Anyone else notice how quiet it is downtown these days. Robson was almost a ghost town at lunch today, a Friday 5 weeks before Christmas! This is going to be one massive bust. Ha, and I couldn’t be happier. Anyone heard from Maggie or any of the other pimps lately? BOB RENNIE WHERE ARE YOU? Are you in daily meetings with your PR consultant? Damage control for your brand? Have you bought any of those great value condos lately? Give us something.
November 21st, 2008 at 10:05 pm
You want real-estate carnage?
Look no further than Kelowna, BC.
Average home prices down nearly $100,000 (16%) in only six months. This beats every other metropolitan area in North America for $ and % drop in only six months following a market peak (for an average home). The annualized rate of decline for the average Kelowna home has exceeded 33% and is rising rapidly.
Condos and other highly speculative slices of the market are down almost 30%. MOI for all market sectors has already hit 32 months. Sales for the entire market are down 76% from the market peak.
Kelowna itself could easily see a 70% peak-to-trough drop in home prices before 2012.
Read and learn: http://www.west-kelowna.ca/
November 21st, 2008 at 9:28 pm
Reposting – Friday for all, have fun:
Five years ago, our bulls brought forth, upon this lower mainland, a new notation, conceived in greedy, and dedicated to the proposition that “Vancouver RE never goes down”.
Now we are engaged in a down turn, testing whether that notation, or any notation so conceived, and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle field of that turmoil. We have come to dedicate a portion of it, as a final resting place for those who died here, that the notation might live. This we may, in all propriety do. But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate — we can not consecrate — we can not hallow, this ground– The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have hallowed it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here; while it can never forget what they did here.
… …
November 21st, 2008 at 7:55 pm
I would totally buy shares in a Somali Pirate Bank. Thank you for making my shitty-I-hate-my-job day!
November 21st, 2008 at 6:27 pm
An interesting piece on BNN, titled “Hedge Fund Bets Against Canadian Banks & It Pays”
quote: “Oh that will never happen here — I am affraid it looks like you are catching the infection…”
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip114830
November 21st, 2008 at 6:16 pm
UBC investments have gone sour.
http://www.canada.com/victoria.....2b31bba677
” UBC’s financial department has been embroiled in controversy since it was revealed earlier this year that university investments have lost about $37.9 million in value.
The university had invested about $130.6 million in non-bank sponsored “asset-backed commercial paper” (ABCP). ”
Too funny:
What’s that saying….Those that can do…those that can’t______?
November 21st, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Remember when Warren Buffet announced, with great fanfare and much fawning media coverage, that he was buying into US equities with his personal fortune? That had nothing to do with trying to use his name to move the market and protect Berkshire stock, did it?
November 21st, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Article:
” Is Warren Buffet losing his touch ” ?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/busi.....le/8050372
Berkshire stock has lost over 50 % of its value since last year.
November 21st, 2008 at 4:13 pm
hey, the somali pirate scenario isn’t all THAT ridiculous. Didn’t the head of the NYSE visit the FARC guerillas in colombia a few years back, asking them to invest their gains from coca running in the stock market?
November 21st, 2008 at 4:09 pm
I have to say, it is a nice “I told you so” to see YVR real estate finally starting to fall apart, but it is also quite depressing to see my hard earned RRSP shrinking exponentially along with a good chunk of my saved up downpayment. I put 50% of my downpayment in guaranteed funds, thank goodness but played with the rest. The only solace is that I’m going to get a nice capital loss and the fact that I wasn’t leveraged means that the drop in savings is not as great as the drop in equity had I held on to my place instead of selling at the end of ’07 and renting.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:55 pm
*CITI IN TALKS WITH SOMALI PIRATES FOR POSSIBLE CAPITAL INFUSION
*WILL REQUIRE ALL CITI EMPLOYEES TO WEAR PATCH OVER ONE EYE
*SOMALIAN PIRATES APPLY TO BECOME BANK TO ACCESS TARP
*PAULSON: TARP PIRATE EQUITY IS AN `INVESTMENT,’ WILL PAY OFF
*KASHKARI SAYS `SOMALI PIRATES ARE ‘FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND’ ‘
*Moody’s upgrade Somali Pirates to AAA
*HUD SAYS SOMALI DHOW FORECLOSURE PROGRAM HAD `VERY LOW’ PARTICPATION
*SOMALI PIRATES IN DISCUSSION TO ACQUIRE CITIBANK
*FED OFFICIALS: AGGRESSIVE EASING WOULD CUT SOMALI PIRATE RISK
* FED AGREED OCT. 29 TO TAKE `WHATEVER STEPS’ NEEDED FOR SOMALI PIRATES
November 21st, 2008 at 2:52 pm
John, the detached benchmark has dropped $75K this year. How do you explain that fact?
November 21st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Time once again for some bear facts :
1) Vancouver condos are the best investment vehicle ever made because everyone wants to live in Vancouver particularly during the beautiful mild winters.
2) The economy of the best place on earth is de-coupled from all the other places on earth. That’s one of the reasons why it’s the best place on earth. Duh.
3) SUVs, boats and RVs are also solid investments especially now that Bigfoot is going under and GM on death’s door. Once everyone wants these products again I’ll be the only game in town. It’s called buy and hold baby.
4) Gold, stocks, bonds, cash are all just about worthless.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:37 pm
BDK:
You made a good point, given “my understanding” via legal precedent is that insurance companies must list what they exclude from coverage… or it is assumed they MUST cover it. I had been informed that there is a “core list” of “coverage exclusions” most insurance companies abide- by and specifically list in their policies.
However… as I said earlier, I have asked the specifc question re Pets…so as to be 100% certain.
PS There are probably a number of other anomalies out there re: coverage that people assume they are covered for by insurance but are actually not covered for.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup
By Andreas Hippin
November 20 (Bloomberg) — The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.
The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships, including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup, pirate spokesman Sugule Ali said earlier today. The negotiations have entered the final stage, Ali said. “You may not like our price, but we are not in the business of paying for things. Be happy we are in the mood to offer the shareholders anything,” said Ali.
The pirates will finance part of the purchase by selling new Pirate Ransom Backed Securities. The PRBS’s are backed by the cash flows from future ransom payments from hijackings in the Gulf of Aden. Moody’s and S&P have already issued their top investment grade ratings for the
PRBS’s.
Head pirate, Ubu Kalid Shandu, said “we need a bank so that we have a place to keep all of our ransom money. Thankfully, the dislocations in the capital markets has allowed us to purchase Citigroup at an attractive valuation and to take advantage of TARP capital to grow the business even faster.” Shandu added, “We don’t call ourselves pirates. We are coastguards and this will just allow us to guard our coasts better.”
November 21st, 2008 at 2:25 pm
BDK:
RE: Pet insurance
FYI: My own tactic with insurance policies is more to put the onus on the insurance Agent to interpret the policy for me ( given I can tend to be a cheap pr*ck at times and want some service in conjunction with annual payments ). The Agent can interepret the coverage’s legalese for me upon my request, …..that’s THEIR job, and not my obligation .
As an example: defining “FIRE” coverage.
I asked them if that includes ” Molotov Cocktails “.
Answer from Agent was ” NO , that is not covered under ” FIRE”..that is deemed “MALICIOUS DAMAGE ” ….which then requires additional coverage.
To which I stated to my agent…OK cover me for “MALICIOUS DAMAGE” as well.
In the same vein, I interrogated the insurance agent re ” PETS”…asked the question from all angles….and discovered that if a Pet causes damage,( or conversely the damage caused can be traced to the pet), I could NOT find ONE single insurance company that covered anyone for “Pet damage” .
I had previously assumed they did cover Pet damage, but when I found out they didn’t , I was glad that I was now aware, so as to avoid any/all nasty surprises now and in the future.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:24 pm
if the tenant did it and he/she would have to pay for the repairs
Only to the extent that the damage deposit would cover it. Good luck to the owner getting anything more, I’ve been to arbitration before when I lived with roommates. In our case the hardwood floors had been scratched up pretty bad and there was pet damage to the house as well. Even though it would cost way more than the $600 damage deposit to repair the arbitrator made the landlord give us back half the damage deposit.
I can’t believe anyone would willingly choose to be a landlord unless the rental income is giving them a really good profit on top of bills, they hire a management company and don’t care about the condition of the property.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Post #1 by BDK
I couldn’t agree more.
Richmond has a hi-rise condo project kitty – corner to Richmond City Hall just getting past lock- up that is one to watch. If the market is tanking , and a glut of competing product is coming forward , does it make any sense to start finishing this project ,ie throwing good money after bad ? Seriously, is it?
Dueck auto dealership sold its downtown Richmond site and just moved to brand new digs by the Massey tunnel, in probably one of the most poorly accessible areas of Richmond. I’ll place a bet right now that the Dueck dealership there soon will be hit by a ” Perfect Storm” of POOR location “meets” Tanking – economy and it will be gone in a year or two . The old Dueck site will probably be mothballed… though an offshore developer still maintains they want to build a 500 + unit plus residential complex there soon …LOL.
Another smaller Richmond condo complex ie 12 unit has sold about 10, but the final 2 units have sat UNsold for months. Those 2 UNsold units may represent the builders profit… so they effectively worked for nothing ie broke even on the effort, if that.
Projects along Lansdowne Road are half – built(ie at the mid point in total height). …….then what do they do ?
On a side note:
Re:That Hi Rise condo that had the plane crash into it last Fall 2007. It was reported that a lot of the owner- residents (who appear to be mostly of Asian descent) did not have insurance , and neither did the pilot have much if any. Many of them have had to live elsewhere and burned through personal savings. This very unfortuante incident may expose the myth/ reality of the “Rich Asian” living in many of these Hi- rise condos and other condos units .
November 21st, 2008 at 1:47 pm
No-Lympics.
Did the Insurance company specifically exclude pet damage?
With a comprehensive policy it’s covered unless it specifically states otherwise, again i don’t really know much about it.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Re:pets and insurance
If the tenant had insurance wouldn’t pet damage fall under his/her liability or under voluntary property damage?
It’d have to be pretty bad to cover the deductible though.
If the dog is just peeing on the floor it’d be the same as if the tenant did it and he/she would have to pay for the repairs?
The big problem with condos, if memory serves correctly, is water damage from washing machines and people setting off the sprinklers and neither of those are likely to be caused by a pet.
I’ve passed caib3 but don’t do personal lines so maybe someone else here can shed some light on this.
It’s the same as if the tenant pees on the floor and chews the walls isn’t it? In which case it’d go to arbitration and the tenant could pay.
Perhaps Krissh can advise us on what happened the last time he had to move out? Did the landlord make you fix the walls and clean up the floor?
November 21st, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Speaking of Spectrum and rentals:
Using the “lights on in the evening” indicator for occupancy – Spectrum is looking more occupied than Paris Place (the building above the T&T).
The Espana complex is really cranking along too. More supply. woo woo.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Post #10
BS ..Asians always want to pay full price !!! LOL
On a related note….A family friend who was a realtor told me of a tradition that offshore (ie Hong Kong ) money was importing here (until it was caught and stopped).
Apparently, parties from parts of Asia such as Hong Kong, as per tradition over there, were adding very generous bonuses (on top of the RE commissions they paid in the RE purchase price).
Some Local realtors were knowingly accepting them , instead of informing their clients that it was NOT a custom here.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:12 pm
The deposit for ” Pets ” was noted in the Spectrum rental scam
Just a side note re PETS and “PET Damage to premises” which will hopefully benefit others.
Upon a fair bit of research/due diligence, I could NOT, I repeat could NOT find any insurance company that would insure for ANY damage caused by Pets, regardless of whether it was the Owner’s pets or the Tenant’s pets.
The last insurance company that apparently insured for this no longer does ( but ironically this firm does provide health care insurance for pets ).
In a glutted RE market which will probably have a higher vacancy rate… Landlords may turn a blind eye to pets,…or be aware of pets and agree to them ,….. or some tenants do sneak them in….but keep this in mind if the budgie, or goldfish ,or cat,… or bengal tiger/elephant combo causes damage to the premises and you, the Owner, and think the insurance company will cover pet damage,the answer I received is = NOPE !!!).
Check it out…but if someone is aware of such an insurance company that will cover pet caused damage etc. , please advise the rest of us.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I just returned from a banking show in Florida. Attendance was down 50%. None of the big banks showed up, just credit unions and community banks who have been conservative and less greedy. This didn’t surprise me though and when I asked how they are weathering the storm, most answered that they were strict on lending and now even more stricter. One bank president was telling me that in their town, the people who can’t pay their car loan, they “lose them to the bank” and then they come in the next week, with a bigger and more expensive car, as the car dealerships are giving credit to anyone and everyone. As you all know, Florida was hit hard with the subprime mortgages, and now every day on the news they show “foreclosed” homes magically catching on fire…..Even the theme parks are suffering (30% down from last year). This is going to be a long recession…..
November 21st, 2008 at 12:57 pm
i cannot believe this:
“BC Expected to barely avoid recession”
what the …
these people are so idiots i need to come up with a brand new name. any suggestions
November 21st, 2008 at 12:48 pm
read on,
I think Harris’ point is that although many of the folks up on the hill expected a downturn, a lot of them were surprised at the speed–and to a lesser extent, the depth–of the market reaction in the past two months.
Trust me…there are more than a few econ profs from both SFU and UBC lurking on this and other local blogs.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:38 pm
On a day when Canadian stocks saw their biggest drop in more than five years, the B.C. Liberal government held firmly to the view that British Columbia will avoid a recession.
“Our economy is strong relative to pretty much every other jurisdiction in North America,” Finance Minister Colin Hansen said Thursday after introducing legislation meant to help stimulate the economy.
“Nothing on the horizon would lead us to believe that the province is at risk of going into recession,” he added.
Maybe you don’t see it on the horizon because it’s about to land right on your head, Colin.
Stephen Harper insists he’s still optimistic about Canada’s economic prospects despite a pessimistic warning from top economists that the country is heading for a prolonged, severe recession.
Great minds think alike.
http://www.thespec.com/article/446423
November 21st, 2008 at 12:31 pm
“But when the dominoes began to fall, almost no one foresaw the depth of the problem and the speed at which it would spread.
“Nobody,” said Prof. Rick Harris, a Simon Fraser University economist specializing in international economics, “predicted how bad it was going to get.”
************
SFU obviously has no internet access….. the poor things. Methinks my children will not study economics there.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Apparently, “Nobody saw it coming” is the new “Housing prices never go down”.
I can’t believe we’re still being fed this crap by the MSM. How about Schiff? Roubini? Mish? Ron Paul? The Pope? Didn’t they see it coming?
The reason they saw it coming is that they realized a simple economic truth: money is not the same thing as wealth. Money is paper and ink. Wealth is goods and services. When you have an economy built on premise that you can become wealthy by buying a house and sitting in it for a few years, without actually doing anything useful, the economy can’t NOT come crashing down. When you have the entire mainstream media telling the populace that “consumer spending drives the economy”, you should know that things are seriously wrong. Of course, it’s much easier to believe that we can all go on buying each other’s houses for more and more money, spending our increasing “wealth” on crap made in China, and driving up our credit card balances than to believe that we actually need to do real work to increase our wealth. So easy to believe, in fact, that the mainstream economists still don’t seem to get it.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:58 am
Seems like we’ve officially entered the “Staring Contest” portion of our program
You must be kidding. The “staring contest” lasted all of a couple of months and ended in July. We’ve been in full Wile E. Coyote since then.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:52 am
We are beginning to seeing signs of forced liquidation in the condo market. Just go to craigslist and read the listings for condo sales where people are disclosing their purchase price to demonstrate that they are selling at a loss. Presumably this is to convince us that the condo is a bargain.
Forced liquidation is THE nightmare scenario for the RE market. If you want to know what forced liquidation looks like, just think of the stock market over the last three months.
Lets cheerlead the collapse of the bubble. All together now, “Forced liquidation, ha, ha, ha! Foreced liquidation, rah, rah, rah!”
November 21st, 2008 at 11:38 am
The latest projections for REBGV’s November stats by Kopyrightklepto in the RT forum (using Paulb’s posted numbers) are as follows:
Listings: 3334 (-6% yoy)
Sales: 922 (-69% yoy)
Sell/List: 28% (-56 pts yoy)
MOI: 21.4 (469% yoy)
Actives: 19715 (77% yoy)
http://www.realestatetalks.com.....p;start=30
Folks, the projection is 21.4 MOI and a -69% YOY drop in sales for November. With these stats, there is no doubt that Vancouver will lead Canada as the biggest real estate meltdown.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:35 am
macchiato – we definitely won’t have a recession. Dear leader Harper (an economist!) said in September that if there was going to be one it would have happened by then.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:33 am
I’m not lumbered with a 400k mortgage on a 350k and sliding condo…
From what I’ve seen it’s more like a 400k mortgage on a 300k and sliding condo, and that’s IF you can a buyer.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:25 am
haha, the BC gov’t is still trying to say we will avoid recession. funny stuff. I can’t even come up with 1 key industry that isn’t hurting. Is there one??? anyone? anyone?
November 21st, 2008 at 11:21 am
“You were right. Congratulations. And?”
And… I’m not lumbered with a 400k mortgage on a 350k and sliding condo…
November 21st, 2008 at 11:17 am
A great read from the New Yorker.
“For most adults, the sensation of being proved right is usually a complex and bittersweet one. You might have said that your brother-in-law would turn out to be a no-goodnik, or that the forty-third President would turn out to be the worst in American history, and you may regard subsequent events as inarguable proof that you were right—but it’s not an especially happy feeling. It changes nothing about the world outside your head. You were right. Congratulations. And?”
http://tinyurl.com/6g36r9
November 21st, 2008 at 11:15 am
Asians like to bargain, even the rich ones.
Thanks Russell Peters for letting the world know our secret.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:15 am
I’ll register for a name tonight so that my name will stop popping up on other peoples posts.
Maybe a better nickname too?
November 21st, 2008 at 11:14 am
Where are those rich asians when you need’em?
They’re moving back to the family farm in rural China after losing all their paper millions.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:11 am
What ig happening with the Canadian bank stock prices?
November 21st, 2008 at 11:02 am
A friend of a friend inherited a $4.3 million dollar house in Shaughnessy and so far the only credible offer he’s received was for $1.7..
Where are those rich asians when you need’em?
November 21st, 2008 at 11:01 am
good point.
November 21st, 2008 at 10:59 am
“Who will blink first?”
The one that needs to. I know of at least one couple who’s income has dropped and they NEED to sell. I’ve never heard of anyone who NEEDS to buy.
November 21st, 2008 at 10:55 am
Seems like we’ve officially entered the “Staring Contest” portion of our program between buyers waiting for prices to drop further, and sellers refusing to admit the market has changed. Who will blink first?
November 21st, 2008 at 10:51 am
The Canadian real estate crash may be overstated, but the Vancouver crash sure isn’t. A friend of mine just bought a place for 25% off its original (inflated) list price. I think its a bad time to buy, but hey if you find a place you want to live for a long time and don’t care if the market keeps dropping that’s up to you.
There are so few buyers out there anyone who really wants or needs to sell will jump on lowball offers.
November 21st, 2008 at 10:33 am
I want to start this Friday off by stating that I think Richmond Condo prices are going to really start tanking more than any other area, if they haven’t already.
All those hi rises are speculator owned, I suspect as much as Downtown Vancouver except once the acid wears off they’ll realize they paid $400k for an apartment in Richmond and will provide facts as soon as possible.