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November 22nd, 2008 at 7:26 pm
I don’t know why someone is bothering to dig up old quotes out of context, I still stand by what I said. Yes, the market is seeing a minor correction right now, but what did you expect when we have a global economic crisis? Just because we see a temporary dip in the market doesn’t mean all of your worst-case scenario predictions are coming true.
November 22nd, 2008 at 6:49 pm
I’m # 100 …..I tink
November 22nd, 2008 at 6:36 pm
A friend of mine went to an open house at 57th and Oak in Vancouver. Asking price $1.7 million.
When he got inside, he knew it wouldn’t sell for that… so he spoke with the listing agent and told her he thought she was wasting her time and he half-jokingly said to her that he figured it was worth $900k… she replied, “will you write an offer?”
November 22nd, 2008 at 6:17 pm
The best news around is that all you bitter renters will soon be out of work as well as out of money thanks to the stock market crash. Meanwhile us owners and investors will be cruising around in SUVs eating fancy peperoni sticks and drinking good beer. Enjoy the tuna sandwhiches renters and thanks for paying for my lifestyle. Us owners warned you about the pitfalls of renting and you still lost it all.
November 22nd, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Smart realtors have their ” FOR SALE” signs listed as
” NEW PRICE ” ( sounds more positive via its ambiguity )
not ” PRICE REDUCED ”
(baaaaddd. sounds more like day – old bread /expired dairy products and simply trolling for sucker buyers )
November 22nd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
“Klump:
As for that perennial bogeyman, the condo glut in Vancouver and Toronto, people have been expecting a crash for years, “and they’ve been wrong,” Klump says. And he believes they’ll continue to be wrong, because condos will remain more affordable than houses, and are likely to grow more appealing as rising gas prices spur people to eschew commutes for staying close to downtown.”
*******
Err, that would be the “rapidly falling” gas prices, no? At least over the past 3 months.
(Yes, I know that long term they will rise again, but Klump really should get his facts right.)
November 22nd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Nobody asked Paul Krugman, Peter Schiff, or Robert Shiller either.
Thats a lame attack, not every economist has access to that kind of media exposure or can get it. It’s not what you say, its what get wide distribution in the media. Many of these guys made their opinions clear for years, is it their fault that the media didn’t distribute that information in equal quantity to the “its different here” dreamers?
It’s been TWO YEARS since TD issued a ‘bubble warning’ on the vancouver real estate market. They were saying we were overpriced in 2006, have we fallen back that far yet?
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....60404.html
Running an entire section of the newspaper as condo advertising is a lot more profitable than publishing negative opinions from economists.
November 22nd, 2008 at 2:47 pm
“A friend of a friend inherited a $4.3 million dollar house in Shaughnessy and so far the only credible offer he’s received was for $1.7..
Which means, of course, he actually inherited a $1.7 million house.”
Which means he actualy inherited a house worth – whatver it actualy sells for – might have been $1.7 yesterday – what will it sell for tomorrow?
November 22nd, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Sorry, drachen, but you’re assuming we all have tenure…
And here are some of the things that get you no points:
1.) blogging
2.) forecasting
3.) media outreach
The idea is that you establish yourself in your field first…it’s only after many years that you might have the type of exposure that Krugman and Shiller enjoy (most of us don’t have a blog on the NYT, after all).
I’m not defending the system, just trying to explain some of the constraints that people operate under.
November 22nd, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Dosh, are you on drugs? Bears, is this guy/girl for real?
November 22nd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I agree Patriotz. Nobody asked Galileo to study the solar system or Darwin to study evolution. Yet they did, and they published it against everyone’s objection at the time and the human race is richer for it.
The purpose of academics getting tenure is so they can freely speak their minds without fear of losing their jobs. These excuses for “academics” either were too incurious or too lazy (or too greedy, in cases like Tsur’s) to understand and speak up about what was happening.
November 22nd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Probably not what you want to hear, but to be frank, no one asked.
Nobody asked Paul Krugman, Peter Schiff, or Robert Shiller either.
That is absolutely the lamest excuse anyone calling himself a scholar could ever give.
November 22nd, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Dosh
“It’s absurd to think we’ll see an early 80s style crash, does anyone really think interest rates are going up to 20%?”
You’ll have to try harder than that. Housing was already crashing when rates shot up.
What’s absurd is people like you who believe our market has become permanently detached from fundamentals.
November 22nd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Nothing stops a realtor from being compensated by the seller and the buyer and any other party. As long as it’s disclosed in writing.
When? At the same time as the presentation of any offer to the seller, or after the offer is accepted by the seller? If the latter it’s still a secret commission and a breach of trust.
November 22nd, 2008 at 12:13 pm
With nuggets of wisdom like these coming from the bulls versus coherent arguments from people who passed grade 6 it’s pretty clear the whole real estate market is going to drop for decades to come
Dosh
“Its simple. Stop throwing your money away, get into anything you can afford NOW and watch your asset grow.”
Krish
“nteradependent economy is immune from collapse,Prices are not falling as stated”
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:50 am
Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down, the price went down $75K for the detached benchmark this year. How are we any different?
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:22 am
keeping an eyes on the pimps,
were you sleeping when realtors and their board were over stating the price trends?Please wake up and tell the pimps some of the following facts that…
Canada’s housing market is fundamentally different from its American counterpart,More than 80% People with supportive fundamental says “NO”we are not going to sell our homes because this is not a good time to sell,We are not going to lose our jobs because our interadependent economy is immune from collapse,Prices are not falling as stated,only sales are dead,As soon buyers will return back to market prices will have to go up that’s the nature of our housing sector,that’s the law in vancouver because VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:16 am
whatever i say do the opposite because I have never been right about anything in my life
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:14 am
NO BUBBLE, NO TROUBLE
SOME OF THE EXPERTS:
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....value.html
Tal:
Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story
http://finance.sympatico.msn.c.....id=7847016
Klump:
As for that perennial bogeyman, the condo glut in Vancouver and Toronto, people have been expecting a crash for years, “and they’ve been wrong,” Klump says. And he believes they’ll continue to be wrong, because condos will remain more affordable than houses, and are likely to grow more appealing as rising gas prices spur people to eschew commutes for staying close to downtown
http://www.lestwarog.com/newsArticle-2033.html
Baxter:
David Baxter of the Urban Futures Institute of Vancouver bluntly says there is “no bubble” in Vancouver.
Rennie
Bob Rennie of Rennie Marketing Systems says: ‘I don’t see any bubble. I look at supply and economic confidence. The fact is we don’t have any oversupply and the fundamentals of a good market are there,” he said.
http://www.straight.com/node/10779
Muir:
CMHC senior market analyst Cameron Muir argued that the province is not trapped in a housing bubble. “We’re nowhere near the kind of price gains that we’ve seen in previous very strong or scary bubble market cycles,” he said. Still,
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....912aabfed7
Adamanche:
With the Vancouver region experiencing still strong economic conditions, Adamache believes there is still room for prices to rise.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:12 am
dosh Says:
December 30th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
So you don’t know when is a good time , but you do know now is not a good time? Where does your knowledge end?
And as far as affordability goes thats an individual thing. How do you know that there aren’t millions of people earning over $100k per year here? The more you have on hand the less of a big deal ‘affordability’ becomes.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:12 am
Dosh Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Deja, your a clown. whats your point? that some of my predictions were off? so what? Real estate is a long term investment. Your probably one of those idiots who predicted a 50% drop and prices are down less than two percent from last year. Anyone who bought in 2006 or before still has lots of equity built up.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:11 am
38 Dosh Says:
September 24th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Anonymous, at least put a name to your post so we can berate you if you’re wrong on your prediction of maintenance fee increases.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:11 am
April 9th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Why is this big news? A 25% chance of anything is pretty low, they’re predicting that theres triple the chance that a global recession will not happen.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:11 am
Dosh Says:
January 8th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Yeah? Well show me a better investment. Even the most dismal forecasts from real estate economists are predicting at the very least a 4% increase in property values. I expect we’ll see a lot higher than that, but if I only get 4% appreciation I won’t be crying in my beer.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:10 am
35 Dosh Says:
January 8th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
The facts are these:
despite a downturn in the US market Vancouver is as robust a market as ever, in fact prices have NEVER been higher than they are now. Complaining about that is like wishing you could still use a payphone for dime. Its simple. Stop throwing your money away, get into anything you can afford NOW and watch your asset grow.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:10 am
March 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Keep on dreaming. If you can buy real estate now but are afraid you should get in while you can. Every time you post one of these stories its like you dont notice the really obvious fact that this news is not about Vancouver and not about Canada. Your stretching for bad news in other countries while real estate here continues to be a rock solid investment.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:09 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
wonder what happens if the U.S. drags Canada into a recession.
Not going to happen. IF the US goes into recession it might have an effect back east, but Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world and we’re not manufacturing widgets. We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:08 am
whats with the obsession with the US market? last i checked we were in a different country. i know we do some trading with them, but geez, lets get real!
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:00 am
patriotz writes:
“So why the hell didn’t any of them say anything in public about it?”
Probably not what you want to hear, but to be frank, no one asked. Isn’t that a recurrent theme on this and other blogs that the MSM has ignored this for years?
And the one time, I was directly asked about real estate in Vancouver in August 2007 in light of the credit crunch and advised that people hold off from purchasing they choose not to run anything on it. Thanks for that, Canwest.
Believe me it has been an extremely frustrating situation…
(ted: I hope that answers your question)
November 22nd, 2008 at 10:44 am
“there are more than a few econ profs from both SFU and UBC lurking on this and other local blogs.”
Do you happen to be one of them?
November 22nd, 2008 at 10:43 am
that wasn’t me, someone is posting under my name. It’s absurd to think we’ll see an early 80s style crash, does anyone really think interest rates are going up to 20%?
November 22nd, 2008 at 10:25 am
Wow, 67,000 factories closed in the first 6 months of this year in China. I wonder what the tally is as of today?
I wonder how many of those factory owners own real estate in Vancouver?
Crash.
November 22nd, 2008 at 10:05 am
This Just in:
Wave of new Cash Rich BC immigrants help drive UP West Van real estate prices, and hence the National average rises dramatically .
Looking next at Yaletown, rumours of Ritz – Carleton project resurrected.
http://network.nationalpost.co.....-amok.aspx
Be wary of massive oil tankers spontaneously being tied up at Lonsdale Quay and Ambleside Park and even Granville Island
PS Rumours of Bob Rennie coming out of exile/hibernation.
November 22nd, 2008 at 9:47 am
Latest on Campbell’s Property Assessment freeze:
Vancouver Sun
Don Cayo article
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....7ea79284f9
Looks like treading water and tap – dancing all rolled into one.
Our assessments come out in about a month. I thought Gordo was trying to create clarity and certainty. Instead, this looks like a set – up be drafted and crafted, ultimately resulting in more losers than winners. I think most Local Gov’ts are in the midst of an orgy of spending…and the RE meltdown has caught them with their pants down. However, rather than long overdue belt – tightening…I see the citizens being set up to maintian the cash flow.
November 22nd, 2008 at 9:33 am
horrifying bad news for new home owners:
http://tinyurl.com/6zlhbz
just when you thought it was safe to go inside…..
“I suspect the biggest health risk is the psychological and resulting physiological impact of reading and keeping current with all the possible health impacts in our lives,” Wardlaw says.
November 22nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Octagonian
“but by my back of the napkin estimates, with the data I can glean, if you were to subtract West Van from the Greater Van picture, real estate here is in, and likely only to experience, a modest 10 – 15 % drop, peak to floor. West Van appears set to be WIPED OUT.
Please, ANYBODY.. disabuse me of this analysis if you can.”
Well your analysis is wrong, but not in the way you want to hear. All of Vancouver will be wiped out. I don’t know where your “back of the napkin” formulae come from but here’s a few for you.
Monthly rent:purchase price multiples, in a balanced market should be 150 or lower.
P/E ratios should be better than a “safe” investment.
Median home prices should be no more than 3-4x median family income.
All of these point to property throughout Vancouver at 2.5-3x sustainable values.
November 22nd, 2008 at 8:48 am
I seem to recall the book ” Boom , Bust Echo ” by David Foote and many of his demographic -based predictions.
If not mistaken , he had predicted a Real Estate crash as well.
His view was that there would be a glut of Real Estate in the near future based on decline in customer base,… due to such things as lower birth rates, and that real estate would be picked up for a song.
I don’t recall him basing it on an economic crash per se, it wasn’t so obvious back then, but in hindsight the seeds were sown and germinating back then when his book first came out.
Here is an interview he did with “Investor Canada” from 1999….which is after the Dot.com bomb and just before the Real Estate ramp up.
QUOTE:
” And of course in the 80s, as kids grew they drove up the value of their real estate investments. And now the boomers, their kids in the ’90s have been hitting the stock market and driving the value of all their stock market investments. So the richest people in Canada today are in their 60s, and these are the people who were giving seniors discounts to. Most Gen Xers just don’t understand why we should be doing that. In fact most twenty-somethings don’t understand why we should be giving discounts to the richest people in Canada.”
Entire interview below
http://www.footwork.com/audio.asp
November 22nd, 2008 at 8:30 am
Vansanity ; “3) Scotia article – There is no such thing as a National Housing Market. The idea is absurd. I suppose they’re like bnn, desperate for some good news.” This is something that everybody should really see (you would think), previous forecasts on the upside in the last five years were WAY under what Vancouver gained. How can the same people that saw the appreciation far surpass the national average now use the national average to spin a conservative number on the down turn? Remember BC is NOT big in Scotia Banks eyes. Ontario Quebec Ontario/Quebec repeat after me! That is their market! Vansanity is right on National stats they don’t matter to Vancouver on the way up or down! Anyone who recites the Nat Stat as a defense should be told okay we exceeded the nat stat on the way up so YOU agree your property is way overpriced!
November 22nd, 2008 at 8:18 am
Octagonian: Could you elaborate on how you end up with a 10-15% correction? Let’s see what you are using to get there, to start with.
November 22nd, 2008 at 8:01 am
Few things I’ve got to say:
1) Someone here told a story of a colleague who invested her money, which was to be used for a downpayment, and lost much of it on the slide. Timing of your investments is paramount. If you NEED the money in the short-term, don’t risk it, go into something gauranteed to be safe.
2) If your RRSP’s are hurting, again, think of the time until you’ll need that money. If you’re nearing retirement you should’ve been out of equities long ago. If you’re like me and have 30 plus years, toss more in, dollar cost averaging works.
3) Scotia article – There is no such thing as a National Housing Market. The idea is absurd. I suppose they’re like bnn, desperate for some good news.
4) I talk to developers all the time through my work. They are worried (to put it lightly). Most have halted new projects, trying to finish up what they have outstanding. All have told me they knew this was evemtually coming, but are shocked at the speed that it has turned. Bigger they are the harder they fall – BOOMS.
5) Similarly, I was at a seminar this week with a many architects and engineers. The few I had a chance to speak with all said the same thing – there are no more projects coming down the pipe. Those that saved and prepared for rainy days will last, plenty of others won’t.
November 22nd, 2008 at 6:41 am
There you go go. Two very different explanations for the same phenomena. This is how wars get started. I’m a pacifist, and going away for the weekend, so no first strike from me. Have a good time, y’all.
November 22nd, 2008 at 6:37 am
Octagonian:
Try this on for size. WV has a lot of smart money, they didn’t get rich by accident, they aren’t in denial, the ones that want to sell are more willing to cut fast and deep to get out when they still can. Stay in denial and you won’t sell, if you don’t sell you don’t show up in the stats.
And as always, anywhere, if you bought before the boom, didn’t HELOC out money, don’t need to sell, don’t want to sell, plan to and can afford to live in your home for the long term, then you are irrelevant to the market, just as the market is irrelevant to you.
November 22nd, 2008 at 6:37 am
West Van:
West Van is a destination address. Why else do people really want to live there ? View and ego, isn’t it ? Its quite transient at the upper end of the income spectrum, isn’t it? If the West Van real estate market is taking the biggest hit..that pretty much validates the aforementionend. A lot of fast overnite wealth lives there…the type that feels these quickie millions will never end. That attracts the type that will bid up and inflate RE prices more than anywhere else to keep up with the Jones’s.
They have a tax and spend Mayor they voted back in . I once read their police stats and they must have one of the most bored police forces in BC. Their Public Rec centers are a joke compared to other Cities…they must prefer the Private Clubs . A lot of the RE developers (ie Cressey, Bosa et al) live there. Funny thing….a lot of these high roller types had their $30 million homes up for sale recently, did they sense something ?
PS: If they want a waterfront view, they can move to Surrey where it is much cheaper and look over the Scott Road flats.
November 22nd, 2008 at 3:00 am
patriotz wrote: “That’s more than ‘not a custom,’ it’s a criminal offense. The realtor is a fiduciary of the seller and may not take any compensation from the buyer.
You’re wrong. Nothing stops a realtor from being compensated by the seller and the buyer and any other party. As long as it’s disclosed in writing.
November 22nd, 2008 at 1:34 am
Not to be a party pooper — I have bear DNA my own self — but by my back of the napkin estimates, with the data I can glean, if you were to subtract West Van from the Greater Van picture, real estate here is in, and likely only to experience, a modest 10 – 15 % drop, peak to floor. West Van appears set to be WIPED OUT.
Please, ANYBODY.. disabuse me of this analysis if you can. While I do not own in West Van, I have friends and close family there who appear to be at debt death’s door if things continue as I suspect they will…
November 22nd, 2008 at 1:03 am
“Anyone heard from Maggie or any of the other pimps lately?”
Actually, yes, just yesterday in fact. I was browsing the magazine stand in my local newsagent here in the UK, and picked up a copy of “Living Abroad” magazine because they had an article on moving to Vancouver. And lo and behold, who was their spokesperson there? Maggie of course! All the usual, “geographically blessed”, “best place on earth” type proclamations. And then a list of “typical” condo listings, and out of the four condos, three of them were listed by – guess who – Maggie of course!
As an aside, it’s really interesting to watch the markets here and over in Vancouver. They are declining in different ways. Over here, the market has been stagnant for over a year now, and there have been mild reductions despite the financial crisis (with the exception of flats). The reason for this appears to be a reluctance on the part of homeowners to lower their price to something realistic. Instead, what I am seeing is loads of houses that were previously for sale up for rent. Well, where I live there isn’t a big demand for rental properties, so I suspect next year we will see the big crash when these sellers finally realize they have to sell or get repossessed.
On the other hand, over in Vancouver, the crash has happened spectacularly fast. I’ve been following the migration of prices in the north shore, and in the last few weeks there are tons of properties that were only listed a month ago, coming up this month with price reductions of 10% or more. 10% in ONE MONTH! Looking in from the outside I have to say that you are experiencing a very, very severe correction.
November 22nd, 2008 at 12:09 am
Apparently, parties from parts of Asia such as Hong Kong, as per tradition over there, were adding very generous bonuses (on top of the RE commissions they paid in the RE purchase price).
Some Local realtors were knowingly accepting them , instead of informing their clients that it was NOT a custom here.
That’s more than “not a custom”, it’s a criminal offense. The realtor is a fiduciary of the seller and may not take any compensation from the buyer.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Dosh > Is that really you? Have you been at the school of rationality, grasshopper?
November 21st, 2008 at 11:11 pm
RE: Richmond condos
quick look on mls finds over 1000 condos for sale in richmond. and, i can thinking of at least 5 projects near completion. over built and over priced…
November 21st, 2008 at 10:48 pm
I think Harris’ point is that although many of the folks up on the hill expected a downturn
So why the hell didn’t any of them say anything in public about it?