Friday Free-for-all!
It’s the end of the work week and that means it’s time for the Vancouver Condo Info end of the week news round up and open topic discussion. Here are a few links and stories that have come to my attention this week:
-Thank you VHB & everyone who’s contributed to the Wiki!
-Guess the next 3 years: Vancouver Condo Games
-Tips on how to be a home-buying vulture
-2 mortgage brokers in Duncan say there is no housing bubble
-Would-be homebuyers may want to wait
-BC mills take downtime in “world awash in pulp”
-Video: Tom Barracks economic outlook
-What will work to kick-start global economies?
-Ottawa chops $4.3 billion, predicts small surplus for 2009
-US sinking deeper into recession, dragging Canada with it.
-US home prices hit 2004 levels, predicted to get worse
-US commercial mortgage crisis looms
-Chinas economic crisis worsens
-Affordable places to ride out the downturn
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Thanks!
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exx Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
My co-worker’s property is still on the market – Friday marks 90 days. He purchased it for $170K ~8 years ago, and listed it for exactly the assessed value of $342K near the end of August. Since then, he has dropped it twice and it has now been sitting at $309K (11% below assessment) for over a month.
He moved out prior to listing his property, expecting a quick sale. Now he’s 3 months into paying both a rent and a mortgage, and has applied for a line of credit to help cover his costs.
Will he reduce his price more? Initially he told me he would reduce to $299K to make the price more psychologically appealing, but he stands unwilling to reduce further at $309K. I guess he hit his own psychological obstacle. I asked him why he decided not to go any lower, and he basically said “It’s worth $309K” and he’s unwilling to “chase the market down and sell his property for less than it’s worth”.
What if it doesn’t sell? Apparently he’s willing to stick to this price all the way to Spring, and if all else fails he will become a “reluctant landlord”. For now, he awaits an offer. Any offer.
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Bowntown's Helper Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Last three days of sales level compare to list ratio show that market has improved and listings are down and going further down,What a recession things turned otherway around.
Guess what action is required by bears and sitting out sold out buyers?
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Bowntown's Helper Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
If anyone wondering when the market turned around?
Market turns around when sell list ratio goes up above 35% btw are you guys trained for Olympic marathon?
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patriotz Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
A few months ago I found myself at a meeting of economists and finance officials, discussing — what else? — the crisis. There was a lot of soul-searching going on. One senior policy maker asked, “Why didn’t we see this coming?”
There was, of course, only one thing to say in reply, so I said it: “What do you mean ‘we,’ white man?”…
About those precedents: Why did so many observers dismiss the obvious signs of a housing bubble, even though the 1990s dot-com bubble was fresh in our memories?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11.....ugman.html
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MickeyFinn Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 1:26 am
A friend of mine will be moving back to Vancouver soon and he is wanting to rent an apartment. On his behalf, I responded to an advertisement for a place in an almost new building on West 12th Avenue. I asked the agent why the suite has not yet been occupied when the building completed last February (I wanted to know why it has been sitting for nine months). He explained that his client had been trying to sell the unit but he couldn’t get his asking price so now he has decided to take the place off the market and rent it out until… wait for it… the market improves.
I’m a generally polite person so I didn’t laugh in the agent’s face.
This isn’t the first time I’ve heard this kind of poorly thought-through logic. But as a real estate bear I love hearing it every time.
Some stock traders make this same mistake. Rather than admitting that their investment has fallen and selling their shares for what the market will bear when their gut tells them that the “party is over,” these individual investors choose to hold and wait for the market to improve. The fault in their logic is that invariably lots of other investors are trying to do the same thing. The effect is that all of these investors acting individually cause what is known in the stock market as “over-hang.”
Over-hang is a large inventory of shares that really just wants to be sold. Over-hang has the effect of killing the market slowly for two reasons… first, if and when the asset’s price starts to rise there is a seemingly endless supply of people who will sell into the rally… which has the effect of killing a budding rally just as it starts. Second, if an asset’s price doesn’t rally for an extended period of time, some of the investors who are attempting to remain patient invariably give up and sell. In the market it is referred to simply as investor fatigue.
Either way over-hang will kill a market… slowly.
How many times have you heard someone say something like, “I’m going to take the property off of the market until the spring.” Guess what, your not the only investing genius that thought of that idea! Surprise, there is going to be a tidal wave of properties hitting the market in the spring. And since prices will continue to slide into next spring that is just going to cause even more of a train wreck at that time.
Oh yeah baby, this gonna be good.
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gadwin Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 1:33 am
Latest REBGV projections from KopyrightKlepto on Paulb’s stats:
Listings: 3067 (-13% yoy)
Sales: 923 (-69% yoy)
Sell/List: 30% (-54 pts yoy)
MOI: 21.1 (462% yoy)
Actives: 19507 (76% yoy)
Avg Price SFH $753,967 (-7% yoy) (-9% mom) (-18% from peak)
http://www.realestatetalks.com.....p;start=45
Paulb’s stats: http://www.northshorepropertie.....?aPageId=8
We are at 21 MOI and sales may not exceed 1000 units for September. Average price for a SFH is down -9% MOM! This is truly a real estate meltdown in Vancouver of epic proportions.
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markx Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 7:18 am
The VancouvercondoGames site had some very interesting data. Taking it at face value, we can see that VanWest rent has risen faster than CPI while income is flat in real terms. This is reasonable as rising labour participation rate means more income competing for same housing stock, and rising wages at the low end of private sector (i.e. manual labor workers) pushes up rent particularly. Now the party’s over, I do expect rent to at least fall back in line with CPI. Based on that graph, 50% is way too optimistic. 70% drop would bring price in line with CPI, if you believe all the bubble construction simply collapse in a freaky alien invasion.
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 7:34 am
From Garth’s vulture article.
“Speaking of which, why not make two offers at the same time on two competing properties, and then let that fact be known (through your agent) to the vendor? That will add even more pressure to the poor guy, as he tries to figure out what he must do to save the deal, and give you what you want. This may be cruel and unusual, but just consider it payback for all those multiple-offer situations greedy vendors placed buyers in during the bubble years.”
I’ve asked this before, too late in a thread to get a response. (Or I’m just a bore, being politely ignored!)
(Romeo and others interested in tower life listen up.)
Would a “subject to” in an offer worded something like this be legal?
“Subject to none of the other identical units for sale in this building, who have in hand the same offer, returning with a lower acceptable price.”
It would, of course, need to be very carefully worded. You don’t want to end up with purchasing multiple units by accident. The intent is to promote a multiple bid situation in reverse.
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blueskies Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 7:37 am
from the Sun article:
“The grim economic forecasts attributable to the global financial crisis caused household confidence to plummet this fall,” Desjardins said. “This climate of uncertainty also contributed to the ongoing decline in the number of existing homes sold, which is down 12.6 per cent in Canada since the start of the year, and down 26.5 per cent in Calgary and 29.2 per cent in Vancouver.
it will be very hard to spin this in a positive fashion….. not that some may really try….
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 7:45 am
To exx:
Well, the way I look at it, your friend has made money over the 7 years (unlike others who bought at or near the peak and have now lost money ).
It isn’t clear if this is his principal residence, but I will assume it is.
Good decision are often based on analysis which is based on patterns.
This VCI Web – Site is a no – holds barred venue for everyone to submit RE data and discuss it. All I see is bad news…contrarian views are delusional.
RE is cyclical, and in my experience it takes years for the RE cycle to re-load and re-boot. In my view, I have not seen anything like this one… and I think the indicators are that it will get worse, based on there is neither any realsitic chance of rebuilding what has been a bubble and no stability(ie no stop in the decline)
In my view, I foresee an RE”Tsunami”…if you recall the Tsunami is based on a massive displacement below the surface resulting in a wave action that literally appears out of no where when it crashes the shore. We will see sales now via the absolutely desperate,specuvestors etc. and this will set some sort of market benchmark.
However I predict we will see a tsunami wave of selling soon by those who are the ” hope ’springs’ eternal ” types, the old “sell in spring” myth…which will be those who have denied and delayed the bitter reality and may be in an even greater sense of panic. These types may be holding on and funding a losing proposition when selling NOW may be the most cost effective move.
My advice is don’t get greedy, there may never be a rebound to their peak price…take the profit and run…and that profit will be less and less as each day passes.
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blueskies Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 7:45 am
alexc:
good point!
one point that was mentioned was
subject to vendor paying all closing costs
and property transfer tax…
if your opening salvo contained
multiple contingencies you
could have the vendors feeling defensive
and slightly off balance…..
maybe i should ask rob to write up
a “stink bid” offer…
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 8:03 am
I’m not so sure about the multiple contingencies bit…. Seems to me a clean bid has more power. Stink bid for sure, though. Cash, quick completion, few subjects, low, low price, take it or leave it. I’m buying something for this price, you want it to be yours? Lots of other fish flopping on the shore right now, don’t waste my time.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Interesting recent development:
The 2oo suites of social housing development at Little Mountain that was recently closed. Holborn (the Ritz Carleton developers )were to be the developers.
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....b53fab782f
This 2000 unit condo Project is now on hold…a year behind schedule,….and people want these social housing units re-opened.
PS: I seem to recall Holborn bragging it had private $$$ to fund the Ritz – Carleton…their delay was due to minor changes. Uh Huh…
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Alexcanuck: You don’t need to go so far as putting anything in writing. Just make verbal offers on the three units you like and the one that takes the lowball gets your money. This is what I did when I bought my condo in 1998 and it worked quite well. I got the strategy from Ozzie’s book “Forget about location, location, location”.
He suggested to find three properties you like, don’t get emotionally attached to any of them, and just start lowballing. If none of them take your offer move on to the next three properties that you like.
My real estate agent asked me after the second property owner turned down my lowball offer: “Are you really serious about buying?” heeheehee
The third time I made a lowball offer I was successful. The offer was 17% below asking (140k/169k) and after negotiations I ended up purchasing for 12% below asking (149k/169k).
In 1998 there wasn’t as much overbuilding as there is now, so it didn’t make sense to bid on three units in the same building, but now there are so many empty units in new buildings I would say “Why not”? If you want a place get out there and start lowballing. (Except these days I would start at 50% under asking instead of 17% below.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:18 am
This from the DUNCAN BC story in the Friday Free For All.
http://www.househunting.ca/buy.....09c4a8c5cf
QUOTE:
Seeing Obama reaching the White House is affecting the Valley’s real estate market, according to Kyle.
“With the U.S. election being over and done with, we’ve noticed a change here. The phone is ringing off the hook. It’s almost like a switch has been turned on. November is traditionally the busiest month for refinancing and this is also a great time to buy a house. The money’s available and the rates are good,” she said.
A realtors (yes a REALTORS !!!!) rebuttal to the above
QUOTE:
“Gord – a RealtorTue, Nov 18, 08 at 07:25 PM
If you haven’t been paying attention, sales are way down since the economic meltdown with listings continuing to pile up. Until the buyers return in force, the listing surplus will keep pricing on a downward trend. When listings come down and some good news hits the airwaves, the floor will shore up quickly. Until then, there WILL be bargains and for buyers, it is the best conditions in several years for picking up a bargain. Don’t wait until it turns around if you are looking for a deal! ”
My own experiences is that the Island and other rural areas tends to attract local retirees (as opposed to off – shore money). Many of these have cashed out their family homes, buy newer and cheaper homes/condos on the Island, and still left with money in the bank.
We were in Duncan this summer for a few days,.., and they have a mega WalMart, REVY etc…as part of a massive commercial redevelopment. However, I don’t see much industry to attract new blood…it seems to be much like many communites and ESPECIALLY the rurals ones….they rely on Real Estate pimping . Now the mortgage brokers quoted amay be correct…in the short term, and perhaps people will still see a big differential in selling in the mainlands / GVRD areas and buying over there on the Island.
However, how long can that type of bubble last??, given it still requires a differential in prices “there” vs. “here”.
The other thing people should note is that often those that retire over there often have to move back to the City,…good health care for seniors is often at a premium
and not readily available in these more rural areas.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:22 am
“If you want a place get out there and start lowballing. (Except these days I would start at 50% under asking instead of 17% below.”
Don’t you think its a bit early. Maybe in a year or so?
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:30 am
If he knows what he wants and can get it 50% off NOW, why not go and get it?
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:31 am
If you see a really nice pair of gloves that you have been coveting for 5 years and suddenly you see them at 50% off would you buy them of say “I think it is a bit early. I am going to wait a bit”?
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:33 am
p.s. I personally am going to wait for at least a year before I start lowballing but the reason for that is I want to save more for a downpayment. If I had the downpayment now that I need then I would be out there lowballing, believe you me.
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browntown Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:36 am
oh yeah nutsters! they came from far and wide, train and boat and aero! rich and poor and then more! some found jobs, some found mike stuart realtar, some found bdk at stongs! tens of thousands came and cuming but they did not find
“a land making machine”
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Purp Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Exx “It’s worth $309K” and he’s unwilling to “chase the market down and sell his property for less than it’s worth”.
It is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay, not a penny more. Why is such a simple idea lost on so many folks?
I know someone trying to sell their apartment since spring, bought for $265K in 2007, listed for $329K because that’s what it was “worth” based on the last sale and some bad realtor advice. Today it is at $285K with no buyers in sight. I wouldn’t be surprised if it sold for far less than he paid, unless he waits until spring, then it will sell for even less than that!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Save up to increase the downpayment while the actual purchase price continually goes down… sounds like good strategy to me .
PS Maybe the (2) will meet ?
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:49 am
This year my rent was $20,880 and next year it will be $21,360 (2% increase).
So, if I want to buy a place for $400,000 (listed price at $800,000 now), I could lowball now for 400,000 and pay 40,000 down and have a 360k mortgage
OR
I could wait one year and save 24,000 more while renting and then pay 64,000 down and have a 336k mortgage. The second strategy would reduce my mortgage by 24,000 or 48,000 (p&i) over the life of the mortgage (26,640 net savings after rent).
If I wait a year I also have a chance of getting a 60-70% discount off today’s listing price.
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Human778 Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Concerning #8 – contract law – cannot make referential offers – “will pay 5% above next highest bid”
Unless there is some new caselaw out there it won’t fly – that is, of course, only if someone sues on the outcome and fairness of the bidding process…
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Spectrum Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:57 am
As far as lowballing on multiple properties is concerned, go for it. Make offers on 5 properties at once, all lowballed and if somebody actually accepts your offer you still have to remove your subjects. And one of those subjects be must be pass inspection. Thats such a subjective thing, and can always be used to get out of a deal. I’ll only add, that when I have done this in the passed it really pisses off my Realtor. And he would do anything possible to make that sale happen, and in today’s market I think the Realtor would practically rebuild whole sections of the himself to get the sale done. In a couple years time when I will buy a place at 70% off, I think I’ll just represent myself as a buyer and do this more frequently.
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blueskies Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:57 am
If I wait a year I also have a chance of getting a 60-70% discount off today’s listing price.
plus the vendors get to experience the
“Spring From Hell” 2009 listing disaster.
sort of like a motivational seminar
‘cept it’s free!
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:59 am
In 1998 a colleague’s mother bought a condo for 200k. It was listed for 285k. 30% discount.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:59 am
You don’t need a landmaking machine.
Buy stock in “Armaggedon Inc.”
Global economic depression will result in global turmoil .
Countries will have high rates of unemployment, be more protectionist ,….and also start restricting immigration.
With low birth rates in most Western Countries…, there will be less demand for Real Estate, a glut will appear and that is the equivalent of a “landmaking machine” .
PS How many of you are aware that many of those Monster Houses they built starting in the 1980’s are quickly turning into rooming houses ? A neighbour of mines most serious offer (a few months ago when the market was still hot) for his $1 million + monster home was from an Asian lady doing “the Math ” and she figured that the rental of each room would cover a lot of the financing. (In fact, loopholes in many City Bylaws actually allow for this..ie they are not technically illegal suites). The old Shaugnessy area of Vancouver has several Mansions that are actually rooming Houses coverted after the 1930’s Depression/WW II and still used as such to this very day.
History does tend to repeat itself.
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Mold City Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Would a “subject to” in an offer worded something like this be legal?
Absolutely! Why would it be illegal to tell multiple sellers that you’re offering a lowball to all of them and first one to accept gets the sale? You can put any legal subject you want into an offer, and this is no more ‘unfair’ than the multiple bid situations during the bid. Markets change, we all knew this, if a seller didn’t.. well… You know what they say about a fool and his money.
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patriotz Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 10:36 am
If he knows what he wants and can get it 50% off NOW, why not go and get it?
Because he’ll be able to buy an identical property for a far bigger discount in 2010. No way is this market going to bottom before then.
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 10:52 am
If I buy now at a 50% discount (400/800) or in 2010 at a 70% discount (240/800) and I have to add 20,000 (2009) rent that will make the cost $260,000. So it will save $140,000 by waiting.
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 11:09 am
“Oh yeah baby, this gonna be good.”
Mickey,you mean you like to buy at high?
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 11:10 am
p.s. Make that $280,000 additional savings by waiting to lowball (p&i over 25 years).
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alan Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Re: affordable places
A few years ago I spend some time in Guatemala and Nicaragua. Both places have a really, really low cost of living. I was paying $150 a month for room and board. Not much work, but at that price, one can be on sabbatical for a couple of years while things work themselves out.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Market Value (???) :
Take off the pimped premium…ie the gouge included in the price due to a hot market.
Exclude the premium aid for labour and materials. Material prices have collapsed. Labour costs likely will too soon .
Call you insurance company and get a quote for ” replacement costs”
Keep in mind that anything bought now has that ” ewww its old or used….” facet to potential buyers in the future.
Do that sort of number crunching in your bid.
I am not in the market, but if I was I’d wait quite a while…(the old gut feeling we AIN’T seen nothing YET ). Real Estate is simply a commodity like anything else.
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patriotz Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 11:42 am
If I buy now at a 50% discount (400/800) or in 2010 at a 70% discount (240/800) and I have to add 20,000 (2009) rent that will make the cost $260,000. So it will save $140,000 by waiting.
You forgot to add on interest and taxes for the same period to the cost of buying now.
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RennieWhereRU? Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Avg Price SFH $753,967 (-7% yoy) (-9% mom) (-18% from peak)
Please bears tell me I am not dreaming. This is turing out a lot better than I had even imagines and its only been 6 months. But dont worry greedy ones, the market will recover in the spring when every specuvestor and his/her dog list their property in a better market! Ha, I predict reality will set in after the spring and then the real slide will begin. Might go buy that big screen TV for my rental, figured I saved $1,000 today by not being a greedy specuvestor and paying $4,000 a month for a house that costs me $1,700 to rent!
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Patriotz and Patiently Waiting:
Thanks for keeping me on track. It’s so haaaaaaaaard to wait. I love shopping! But you guys are right. Patience will pay off BIG TIME!
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valueshopper Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Pardon my ignorance, but what is a ’stink bid’?
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....4029adad15
Re: Stink bid
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arit Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
NOLYMPICS:
“Save up to increase the downpayment while the actual purchase price continually goes down… sounds like good strategy to me .
PS Maybe the (2) will meet ?”
——————————–
That is exactly our “Plan A”!
Regards
arit
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arit Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
bluskies
“Spring From Hell 2009″
Ooooohhhh! I am liking that term! Liking it a lot!
I have a feeling it is not the last time we hear it.
Kudos and register it, so you can make as much money as I did with “Sticker-Flicker”!
Regards
arit
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bdk Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
This is a great buying opportunity if
1.You don’t mind paying 50% more than you could pay in six months.
2.You just can’t bear to have proud owners looking down at you simply because you don’t want to go bankrupt like them.
3.You want to pay for your own paint and maintenance.
4.Get in on the special assesments that’ll start popping up real soon. If you don’t somebody else will!
Get out there and buy right away or risk having way more selection (who wants more choice?) and a lower price (who wants all that pesky money) plus the realtors really need the comission to pay for their leased BMW’s
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Kuroame Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Put in offers 85% under asking but tell ‘em you’ll throw in your copy of Irrational Exuberance.
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bdk Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Stink Bid
This is a low ball bid of a stock that has had terrible news come out.
In this case everybody said it would drop 25% and it did but rebounded and some people were able to catch this rebound. They also caused the price to drop further harder than would normally have happened.
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valueshopper Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Thanks for the stink bid definition – it seems like just offering what you think a depressed asset is worth is considered a stink bid by a seller that wishes their investment hadn’t dropped from the peak.
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bdk Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
You’d think realtors would be happy with any offers right now and not be sending condascending letters to their potential lease payments,er, clients.
Call me nuts but I think being up front with clients builds long term relationships more than scamming them once and alienating them forever. A happy customer tells four people and an unhappy one tells twelve so imagine how many they’ll be telling after 35 years of overpaying for a worthless condo.
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bdk Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Dammit #20
We have already established that there is a land making machine and you still owe me for opening your eyes to this invention.
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bdk Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Hey Browntown does your Mother call you mundh buddhi?
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Spectrum Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
I know people on this forum have joked about Spectrum having some of the worst renters around in it, but I can now verify there are strippers/prostitutes living in the complex. Some of the dancers/private dancers that work at the Cecil Hotel and Strip Club on Granville St live there. I know this because I have been to the Cecil and now I see some of the same “employees” in the elevators/lobby of Spectrum. I just hope they don’t bring their “work” home with them.
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VanTOVan Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Got this “Market Update” from another prospective realtor:
WHAT A GREAT TIME TO BUY!
Lower Prices + Low Interest Rates = HUGE SAVINGS!
The Media Reports Prices Will Drop Approx 10% in 2009.
This Is Based On NEW Homes NOT RESALE Homes!
Current Inventory Is HIGH BUT Volume Is DROPPING!
Do You Want To Look Back To Today and Say To Yourself
“I Wish I Would Have Bought That Place When It Was Only?”
Rates (& Resale Prices) Are Predicted to RISE Spring 2009!
I keep waiting to hear “Worthington Ford in Federal Way–the ONLY way! Open til Midnight every day”(for those of you that recall those great commercials from the 80s)
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Spectrum lover Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
If anyone else wants to get ripped off by Norm King he’s advertising now:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....12265.html
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
http://tinyurl.com/2sdtvd
I found this buy/rent calculator over at Alberta Housing Blog. Hat tip to Gloria.
The calculator accounts for the possibility of negative appreciation, but unfortunately does not allow for variation in interest rates over the life of the mortgage.
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Anonymous Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
darn. The nyt requires sign in.
Just google nyt buy rent calculator and you will find it at the top of the list.
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stagnate Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
only in canada, i can’t believe this norm king wasn’t thrown in jail. my police sources tell me it was quite a large scam covering suites in three spectrum buildings and some other buildings also. all the strippers and escorts live downtown, most rent, some own. lots of income, although likely less now with the economic downturn.
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Florence Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Why wouldn’t a stripper own?
hairstylists, warehouse workers and postal workers figured it out.
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mrjauk Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Re post #52, I think Mr. Norm King needs a bit of a lesson on the geographical nomenclature of downtown Vancouver. The Spectrum apartments are in Yaletown now?!?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Hey:
Let’s all answer Norm King’s ad…all show up…and beat the…%$* &*# #@& (well ya get my drift)
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jesse Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
“y police sources tell me it was quite a large scam covering suites in three spectrum buildings and some other buildings also”
We already knew this from last week. Now we have the name.
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exx Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
With PaulB’s final numbers in, here’s what can be expected from the REBGV SFH Average Price Graph.
Broken down: 7 days were in the $615-685K range, 8 between $720-795, 2 between $845-870, 1 at $927 and 1 at $1.06mil.
If it wasn’t for the one day this month with a $1mil average, we’d be at $738,486. The last two weeks came in at $737,750.
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freako Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 12:16 am
Yeah, if the commentors at the end of Duncan article are a random sample, sentiment has a ways to fall still.
I can’t believe how many people still say crap like:
- Crappy homes will drop, but not good ones.
- Prices will be higher in x years.
- Why pay your landlords mortgage when you can pay your own.
- Buyers will return in the spring.
- We are different in Canada
Flipping morons.
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islander Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 1:28 am
OK, I know nobody here wants to listen to anything a realtor has to say, but DO NOT take Spectrum’s advice in comment #25 to “make offers on 5 properties at once” Similarly, Garth’s vulture list was excellent, but the advice on submitting mulptiple bids is a bad idea.
Real estate contracts compel parties to the deal to follow the terms and conditions of the contract. Sure, when buyers are plentiful sellers don’t care so much when one backs out over the inspection. When you’re the only buyer within miles, sellers are more likely to hire a lawyer to help that contract stick.
It’s got nothing to do whether I get a commission or not. It’s about offering proper advice to my buyers. It would be so outrageously negligent to submit multiple written offers on behalf of a buyer that I don’t know any realtor who would do so. And any lawyer would agree.
Much safer to submit a written offer with a very tight time for acceptance. If the offer is not accepted, walk.
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read on Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 1:50 am
freako, I’ll happily say that prices will be high in x number of years.
as long as I can say that x=an unknown and potential large number.
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read on Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 1:50 am
higher*, obviously.
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Anonymous Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 8:51 am
I sense some frustration on the part of Freako, “the bear Bob Rennie”. Keep the bear spin going Freako, most don’t see through your crap.
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Anonymous Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 9:09 am
From the Duncan article:
nicalisa
Tue, Nov 25, 08 at 04:23 PM
So I have to wonder…..will there be that much of a correction in the Vancouver market? Yes, sales are down…but in my neighborhood some nice properties have sold. In addition they are selling under what they would have last year, which is good for the buyers by about 50k. We have decided to move back east and were at first scared by the market. Then we really thought about it. We made money on the sale of our last home. We will lose money on the sale of this one. In the end it will all even out. If only the bloggers and media hounds would be more moderate, maybe people wouldn’t have their wits scared out of them!
Didja hear that, bloggers? Be more moderate! heeheehee
Moderation conquers all! heeheehee
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Anonymous Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Is this the same nicolisa taking lowly bloggers advice to sell her monstrosity? heeheehee
http://tinyurl.com/6339c6
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Anonymous Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 9:24 am
At 18% below peak nicalisa’s monstrosity has one from $930k to $744k. “Sell and skedaddle” is my advice.
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Anonymous Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 9:26 am
I sense some frustration and a wee bit of panic in nicalisa’s posts.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 10:00 am
You only lose if you sell.
Your gains or losses are only on paper at that stage
However, if you HAVE to sell…. you are SOL.
PS I don’t think anyone here is creating panic…all I see for the most part are hard ,cold, sober facts. Interpret them as you like and at your own peril.
However , if literally every countries own Gov’ts are sh*tting bricks re: both their domestic and the overall global economy , ’nuff said.
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bdk Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Attention downtown condo dwellers.
Does anyone on here use Novus?
I was over at a neighbours place and he was showing me his Novus HD setup and from what he demonstrated it appears the internet connection is twice as fast and the HD doesn’t have the issue with the sound cutting out and it’s about 30% cheaper and he said it takes 5 seconds to get customer support (whereas I punched in my number and waited for more than an hour the last time I called Shaw)
Has anyone here had any issues with Novus?
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special thanks to JonathanPercival Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 11:06 am
GOTTA RUN TO BUY A HOME
Four year been through since i am blogging around
I never found what i was looking around
Oh -I was looking for the bottom line
It ain’t fallin on the ground
I had to much, fundamental of market never crushed
I gotta run to buy
I gotta run to buy
gotta feeling inside had enough of bs
I gotta run to buy
Vancouver is fundamentally different from the usa and world
It is beautiful city and best place on earth
market never touch the floor
bear never find the truth
they had bs enough
Vancouver market never crushed
I gotta run to buy
oh yeah I gotta run to buy
in the beautiful city that make difference on the best place on earth
oh gotta run to buy
yeah gotta run to buy
yeah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDfBX9AmsLU
Special thanks to(JPW)JonathanPercival Wentworth the fourth
month over month year over year vancouver b.c.
“THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH”
Oh gotta buy a home now
Oh gotta buy home right now
yeahhhhhhhhhh.
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ellery Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 11:08 am
I haven’t seen anyone mention this development:
http://www.thekeefer.com/
lofts priced from 1.69 million in chinatown. They are halfway through construction now.
Has anyone heard about this development? It seems unrealistic.
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ellery Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 11:14 am
oh, in case you are wondering where it is, it is between an abandoned gas station and some little ma and pa restaurants, opposite the Chinatown Plaza Mall and the big parking garage (which is part of the mall) – about a block from sun yat-sen gardens.
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Satv gets spanked by his mum Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Krish, if you are still in denial about the market then go away.
If you want to acknowledge that you’ve been 100% wrong and the market has dropped 30% but present a reason why you think now is a good time then go for it.
Otherwise you’re just a semi literate troll spouting off that the market will never go down you’ll just be ignored.
Go work in the warehouse for the rest of your life and continue to be an economic slave
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patriotz Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 11:27 am
You only lose if you sell.
Actually that’s not true.
When you buy an investment – any investment – you’re really buying its future income stream. For a house that’s the net rental value (whether you rent it out or live in it).
If you pay more for a house than the present discounted value of this income – the fundamental value – you lose money as soon as you buy it, because you have paid more than the house will be worth to you if you never sell it.
You can recoup this loss only by selling to a greater fool who is willing to pay an even higher premium over fundamental value. In other words, you only gain if you sell to a greater fool.
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mino3 Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 11:28 am
bdk, even on Shaw’s basic cable (not HD) sound cuts out for hours at a time. I had to watch the Nov 4th election coverage with no sound.
Novus is available in my building, so it is tempting..
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Disbelief Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Has anyone seen this article BC business mag(rag). Bob Rennie spouting off that the RE market is still strong and well and living in Vancouver with help thanks to the Iranians, Koreans, Chinese etc. He mentions its different here. What a load of garbage!!! Try not to laugh when reading Bob may hear you. He is sensative these days.
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca.....hat-crisis
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bcubbins Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
If only the bloggers and media hounds would be more moderate
Nicalisa seems to think we are talking the market down with all our bearish growling. We certainly tried to talk the market down but it had no affect.
We advised friends and family of the perils of purchasing at inflated prices. We saved some of them but the market as a whole continued up. Posters here and at other blogs made well-reasoned and researched arguments as to why Vancouver real estate prices were unsustainable. But despite our best efforts to talk it down, the market climbed higher and higher and higher, until it reached suicidal heights.
And then it jumped.
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Vansanity Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
LOL!! Wow, I read all the posts there on RE Talks on nicalisa’s issue. They were some of the dumbest things I have ever read in a long time. I nearly spit out my coffee laughing! I especially love the ideas of: 1) waiting 1-2 years for the price to build; 2) that type of property always appreciates. Lol!! Oh my God!
I love these idiots, they’re making this way too easy. It’s like playing poker with a virgin player that is learning the hierarchy of the hands, while you smile and take their stacks of chips. It’s embarassing.
Every time I have entered into a negotiation, the most informed and prepared always “win”. These people have absolutely no clue as to what is happening, and more importantly why it’s happening. Without that understanding they are cluelessly guessing and hoping.
I love it. Let them hold out and hope. Let them watch prices continue to decline. Let their interest payments continue to erode their unrealized potential profits without blinking at the thought. Let their egos rule their decisions. Watch as they will, one day, stand humbled.
This just gets easier and easier… stay patient bears, wait no… sharks! There’s blood in the water… I can smell it!
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jesse Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
nicalisa has decided to sell. I believe that’s the best possible outcome but it wasn’t without a bunch of posters advising to ride it into the sunset FTW.
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca.....hat-crisis
This highly trained expert says:
“Because we’re more conservative, our market is also more orderly – with real buyers and fewer fluctuations. But that doesn’t
make it any more affordable. Vancouver, especially downtown, is no longer reliant on local incomes to sustain the housing market. More and more discretionary wealth from Iran, Korea, China and Europe is picking up the slack and driving up prices. There’s also the upward pressure that the multibillion-dollar Olympic branding campaign is putting on prices – all this in a city that has, under current zoning, very little residential construction on the horizon.”
Yet this highly trained expert says:
http://robchipman.net/blog/
“I’ve been warning buyers and investors alike since 2006 to be cautious with pre-sales. Some have ignored my advice. The allure of fast cash was too strong. Buyers who wanted to buy a home were attracted to the glitz and glamour of buying something brand new, only to later find out that brand new buildings don’t always live up to the hype.”
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Real Estate Never Go Down Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
It’s hard not to hear doom and gloom these days. It’s a stark contrast to the overall mood of the masses & media only a year ago. Back then new features were popping up in newspapers. New reality first time home buyer and renovation T.V. shows were all the rage. Friends, family, neighbours, co-workers, & complete strangers could strike up conversations about theirs or people they knew success stories. It seemed everybody could make money.
One of the most popular ways of investing was buying into a pre-sale development. It was a sure thing. People were lining up for days just to be the first to buy the next hot development. Novice investors that had no idea what they were doing were looking and sounding like savvy investors. Self serving Realtors were pushing pre-sales as the gold standard of real estate investment, preaching about the 2-5-10 warranty, without really knowing what that the warranty covered. Nobody paid much attention anyways. Just as long as these Realtors could network with enough of these investors, or even better finding someone who was willing to be a repeat pre-sale investor. They’d say things like “just put down your down payment and assign the contract shortly after for a guaranteed investment”.
Some investors thought they were bigger and better than the game and so cut out buyer’s agents all together, simply going direct to the developer’s sales people (many of whom aren’t even licensed Realtors, but basically glorified order takers). Buyers were tricked into believing that they were getting VIP pre-views, and special offers. These investors were the prime target for developers and mega marketers. Many of them will be left holding the bag so to speak when they can’t assign their contracts,. They will have to complete, and depending on how many pre-sales they wrote contracts on, their closing costs could be multiplied, plus they’ll be on the hook for GST on the purchase price.
You never heard much about the chance that the developer might not complete the development. You never heard the idea that buying in a boom is a potentially dangerous way of buying. The simple fact that when labour is short, and costs are rising, some developers will hire unqualified tradesmen, cut corners by swapping materials, hiding things like bad wiring & piping behind the walls, using thinner drywall for the walls decreasing noise deadening, etc, etc…
I’ve been warning buyers and investors alike since 2006 to be cautious with pre-sales. Some have ignored my advice. The allure of fast cash was too strong. Buyers who wanted to buy a home were attracted to the glitz and glamour of buying something brand new, only to later find out that brand new buildings don’t always live up to the hype.
Not every buyer was ignorant to the game. Some knew exactly what they were doing, and they made great profits from their investments. They knew there were great risks associated with buying pre-sales, but they also knew that as long as the media was hyping the market that they could most likely assign their contract to the next guy just following the crowd.
It’s easy to get swept up in all the hype. It doesn’t happen only in real estate. It happens all the time in the stock market. It happened with the tech boom. It will continue to happen. The big challenge for investors is not to let it happen to them. Do not become one of the herd. Good deals are hard to find, but they are out there. Chances are the next good deal won’t be what the media or your friends are talking about. Right now while everybody is lighting their hair on fire rushing for the exists, stop and take a look. There are opportunities everywhere. Chances are the worse the media coverage becomes, the more opportunity there will be.
Here are some downfalls to buying pre-sales:
1. No certainty that the project will be on time or even completed.
2. No certainty that the product will turn out the way the showroom portrayed it to be.
3. Teaser rates and gifts from developer means they are over supplied. Values could fall.
4. GST is payable on all brand new property. Extra cost that is hard to get back in a flat or down market.
5. Developers cutting corners to save profits.
6. Stratas normally take 2-3 years to become organized and efficient. (Growing Pains)
My advice to would-be real estate presales investors – don’t assume that what worked 2 years ago will work for you today.
-Browntown
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blueskies Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
bdk:
we’ve been with Novus for
5 years including 2 moves
i’d recommend them for their
customer service and technical expertise
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
“My advice to would-be real estate presales investors – don’t assume that what worked 2 years ago will work for you today.”
Free advice from an expert, it’s enough to keep me reading that blog.
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
“My advice to would-be real estate presales investors – don’t assume that what worked 2 years ago will work for you today.
-Aaron Best”
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Bdk Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Thank you for the Novus feedback! I called and was speaking to someone right away and they’ll be here Tuesday.
They’ll also take care of Shaw. The 20-30% savings is great but the improvement from 5.07 mbps to 10.7 mbps and better sound quality on the TV is even better plus being able to call and actually talk to someone and scheduling an appointment within two business days… All unheard of with Shaw and Telus!
This’ll also trigger Shaw to start sending promotional offers, so if it doesn’t work out…..
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bcubbins Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Many of them will be left holding the bag so to speak when they can’t assign their contracts,. They will have to complete
For some that may be easier said than done.
Due to financial contraints I cannot complete this purchase
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....81511.html
I have to give me deposit away for free because i can’t complete.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....65992.html
I’ve placed a deposit but cannot complete. Need someone to take this assignment from me.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....53522.html
Owner cannot complete on this property.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....14206.html
I won’t be able to close.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....66059.html
Our life-style has changed in the last 2 years and we will not be able to close
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....93833.html
the completion is in 2 weeks and my bank did not approve my financing. Therefore I can’t complete on this sale.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....40776.html
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Re-diculous Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Does anyone keep track of or know a resource that keeps track of the average price of places PER-SQUARE-FOOT in a particular area, say downtown?
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john Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
I just got off the phone with a rich African king who wants to invest in condos in Vancouver. He said if anyone will send him $1000 transaction fee he will send back over 1 million to buy condos as an investment. It sounds like a good deal. Anyone know any downside potential here?
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bcubbins Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
John, tell your rich African friend to be careful. There are scammers working in the Vancouver real estate market who have no qualms about taking advantage of rich foreigners. They will say anything to make a sale…everyone wants to move here, rents cover expenses, it’s the best place on earth, yada yada yada. He shouldn’t believe everything they tell him.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
AFRICAN Investor?
This is what I got in my “Inbox” this week
Sounds legit to me…but they didn’t quite finish the e-mail
Probably calling Norm King as we speak.
==========================================================
I have a new email address!
You can now email me at: yoby_fara012@yahoo.com
- Reply me with this email…yoby_fara09@yahoo.com Dear friend my name is Mr YOBY FARA. I am the manager of auditing and accounting department of BANK OF AFRICA (B.O.A) here in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. In my department we discovered an abandoned sum $10 million us dollars in an account that belongs to one of our foreign customer (MR. RICHARD BURSON from Florida, U.S.A) who died along with his entire family on November 1999 in a plane crash.Since we got information about his death, w
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patriotz Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
“My advice to would-be real estate presales investors – don’t assume that what worked 2 years ago will work for you today.
-Aaron Best”
How astute.
What was he saying this time last year?
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jesse Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
“What was he saying this time last year?”
Presale problems in Coquitlam.
Aaron was making noises this time last year, to be fair.
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arit Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
bcubbins
Excellent list! Why don’t you advance humanity by opening a page in our Wiki to track the appearance of “those who could not even finish the race”, as opposed to the “losers”.
We could track their growth in numbers and shrinkage in personal cash, and later on maybe we could write a Greek tragedy about them. We might call it “On those who bit more than could swallow”.
Best regards,
arit
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Anonymous Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Ok, listen up peeps.
How many think that Bob Rennie (based on this interview) will end up in the psychiatric ward within 6 months?
http://tinyurl.com/5kpx4h
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Robert Rennie Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
I just got off the phone with a rich African king who wants to invest in condos in Vancouver. He said if anyone will send him $1000 transaction fee he will send back over 1 million to buy condos as an investment. It sounds like a good deal. Anyone know any downside potential here?
Can you please PM his email address to me? ASAP?
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Montery Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Re-diculous Says:
Does anyone keep track of or know a resource that keeps track of the average price of places PER-SQUARE-FOOT in a particular area, say downtown?
Hi Re-diculous,
I was keeping track of the price per square foot downtown for 2 bedroom condo’s priced under 650K. They were floating downwards to about $550-600/sq ft from a high of about $700/sq ft.
I haven’t tracked them in over a month, so it may well be lower. My personal guess is that if you are paying for anything more than $250/sq ft in downtown, it’s too much.
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Anonymous Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Aaron Best Rocks!
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sluggo Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
CALGARY SUCKS!!!!!
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Garth Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Several times I’ve seen people saying “ha, Bob Rennie is going to be totally screwed when things really get bad. He will be broke and miserable!”
I really don’t think so. You may not like the guy, but I don’t think anybody can claim he isn’t smart. I suspect he knows fully what is going on, and knew the whole time that it would eventually happen. I would guess that over the last 7 years or so he has been squirreling away millions.
Bob Rennie will be fine. You should worry instead about your friends and family.
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patriotz Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
“What was he saying this time last year?”
Presale problems in Coquitlam.
Aaron was making noises this time last year, to be fair.
Yeah but the problem he was talking about last year was about pre-sale buyers having to pay over the original price or lose the pre-sale and get their deposits back. Pre-sale buyers would be thankful to have that problem today.
Not one hint in what he was saying a year ago that the market would tank.
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Regular Poster Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 12:14 am
“Not one hint in what he was saying a year ago that the market would tank.”
That’s correct, as I recall he implied the rising cost of construction would keep prices rising.
He also said something quite stupid which is in keeping with his level of intellect; the further implication was that somehow the provincial government, as he put it, would have to raise wages so that incomes would rise to support high housing costs.
That said, I don’t see him as a typical RE pumper, I think he is actually dumb enough to believe what he says.
If I recall correctly the imbecile once said:
“Real estate is cool, and some day I will own a piece of it in every part of the world”
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brownstain Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 3:21 am
Here is tv towers and 525 condo assignments and is also tiz woodwerz iz 500 asignmnbnents is why today no wal mart is zearz impoyii buy but then today is when rich yes and buy so price I buy so go up yezzz ans tans uyh it goez ip and iz now
“REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN”
TV Towers 788 Hamilton 525 Jun
Vita 565 Smithe 146 Apr
W-32 108 W Cordova 170 Apr
W-43 128 W Cordova 366 Apr
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Anonymous Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 4:10 am
“Bob Rennie will be fine. You should worry instead about your friends and family.”
Yes, mother.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Hey anybody know what happened to Al Gore et al ?
Sure is quiet on the Global Warming err…”Climate Change ” front.
Maybe something to do with “STFU It’s the economy….stupid!”
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Disbelief Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Rennie wants you to take your place off the market so he doesn’t have any competition to market his overpriced garbage. He is smart CYA(cover your ass) first who cares if the specuvestor loses his shirt. Got to think about my art collection and my stuff… Don’t believe anything that forked tongue snake oil salesman says. If you have a condo you bought for sale sell it now… Rennie hasn’t taken any of his off the market… Funny. Even he doesn’t list to his own BS. Do as I say not as I do.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 10:37 am
City of Vancouver and City Finanical Officer Estelle Lo’s severance
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....Gary+Mason
Not to worry all is well. Vanocuver Real Estate never go down…it is simply re-loading for a major rebound soon .
As a result…Bob Rennie will be Condo King again , Estelle Lo will be back as CFO …and Ben Johnson will win the Figure Skating event in 2010
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betamax Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 10:43 am
I would guess that over the last 7 years or so he [Rennie] has been squirreling away millions.
And put it where, in GIC’s? He no doubt re-invested in ’sure thing’ RE like all the other clowns.
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betamax Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Sure is quiet on the Global Warming err…”Climate Change ” front.
You don’t worry about conserving water when your house is on fire, but the water supply is still a little more depleted afterward. It barely makes the news but change is continuing regardless.
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read on Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 11:32 am
The lack of news on “Climate Change” in recent months is becuase, as betamax suggests, we are all basically deeply selfish. Here and now matters, not 10, 20 or 30 years time. The economy is in crisis, but not “our” environment. It might be in crisis in other parts of the world (hell, or even the country), but until it hits on the home front we (as a society) are not likely to do more than make nice with the rhetoric. When it does arrive, we – as a society, especially the west – will get exactly what is due to us…
Rant over.
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Disbelief Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 11:58 am
People are more concerned with their own financial situation than the environment. In the third world where they are searching for their next meal, How concerned do you think they are about the environment… Environmental concerns are very low on their list. When money is plentiful we seek places to help when not we are selfish…
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Vansanity Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
There were some very emotional posts on the 2 mortgage broker story, which in itself was hilarious. I know of a mortgage broker locally who is very slow, she says she only has 3 pieces of business on her desk for the rest of the year. Way, way, way down from the last few years.
Anyway, here is my favorite posts from someone that calls himself “One Angry Slav”. This man really gets it, here’s my favorite part of his post:
“My brother owns a house in North Burnaby that his realtor nephew claimed was worth one million dollars (this was back in the Spring). I told my brother at the time that if he could get a million dollars for that house, to sell it immediately. He didn’t. I have just now told him that the value of his house won’t reach one million dollars again before he retires (he’s in his 40s now). This is a one-in-a-lifetime credit-fueled speculative bubble, the true ramifications of which are truly unknown.”
A once-in-a-lifetime [EASY] credit-fueled speculative bubble. Couldn’t have said it better myself. Some people do get it.
The pool of money (debt) that the global economy has been using has shrunk and continues to shrink. It’s no wonder deflation is coming.
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sluggo Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Our economy seems to be collapsing at an astounding pace.
Just heard through the grapevine that an architectural firm (don’t know the name, but it’s near Jervis and Nicola) layed off 100 workers on Friday because of cancellation of 5 major projects. Reports of layoffs from friends and relies are gowing like an epidemic.
Don’t know if it’s just me, but this seems to be unravelling much faster than the 81 collapse, and this is bound to spook the few remaining idiots still thinking of buying into this market just when the market is about to be swamped with re-listings in the spring and thousands of new completions coming on stream.
Can this storm get any more perfect?
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bearette Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Can’t wait for the end of Nov. stats next week! Wonder how much benchmark prices have dropped! It’s like an early Christmas present. Santa, I want real estate carnage under the tree this year!
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Human778 Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
This guy/girl has an interesting rental strategy
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....;bedrooms=
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Rob A. Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
lol, how old is this real estate agent? he looks like he is 16
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5wCe_DjMFA
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observer Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
City of Vancouver and City Finanical Officer Estelle Lo’s severance
Surprising to see there is still so much silence about this. If you want to cover something up properly, you need to spin the story, not put on a gag order. The silence in itself reveals something.
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Kopyright Klepto Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
exx said:
“With PaulB’s final numbers in, here’s what can be expected from the REBGV SFH Average Price Graph. ”
$755,483 as noted in the chart is the average of the daily average, which doesn’t account for variance of the daily sales volume.
When you account for daily sales volume, you’ll find the the weighted average is slightly lower, at $750,673.
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Anonymous Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
ADVICE PLEASE:
Do you think it is better to move out of an expensive apartment now or wait until the rental rates go down next year sometime?
I have a friend who rents a 2 bd. place for $1800 a month with her boyfriend. They are worried that her boyfriend may be laid off sometime in the near future but her job is recession-proof although she may have to take a cut in pay. She can pay all of the household expenses on her income so if they stay in their current apartment they will be okay, but won’t be able to save any money each month if her boyfriend loses his job.
So they are wondering if they should move now to a place that is $1100 per month while they both have stable employment or take the chance that her boyfriend’s job will continue and wait until rents decrease more and move in the summer of 2009 to an apartment equivalent to their current one for a lot less money.
BTW, they just received a rent increase notice for March 2009 in their current place.
They tried to live in a one bedroom apartment before but it was just too small for them.
They are thinking of buying a home but need to save at least $17,000 more for a downpayment.
Any advice will be seriously considered.
Thank you.
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bdk Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
#120
Your friends have nothing to lose by writing a letter to the landlord asking for a 10% decrease and mentioning they’re considering moving for January 1 or even February 1 (two terrible months to find occupants in the best of times)
If the landlord has any common sense they will reduce it and if they don’t then look around for a 1+den.
Prompton has two 740′ish sq ft units for $1550 which is big enough for a couple and the nicest area of downtown….
They’ll probably allow you to take the keys earlier so that you can leisurely move into the new place.
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Anonymous Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Thanks bdk, I will let her know about your suggestion. I do think they were wanting to have a massive decrease in rent if they took the trouble and expense to move, but I will let her know about the prompton people.
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ursus Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
I think the architectural firm that laid off all those workers was Howard Bingham and Hill. Can’t be too sure though as many other architect and engineering firms are slashing their workforce as project get cancelled almost daily. The scary thing is, this is just scratching the surface compared to the lost spinn-off and construction jobs that will follow.
Likewise, the recent price drop in the housing market is just a mild prelude of what’s to come.
124 X Wait Till Spring | Vancouver Secrets Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
[...] signs that a meltdown will hit BC real estate this [...]
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mino3 Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
#117
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5wCe_DjMFA
It’s funny how you shouldn’t believe everything you read in the media when it’s bad news, but there’s nothing wrong with unadulterated good news (i.e hyping the market).
This guy is the poster child for clueless realtors who got in during the bubble and have no idea about market cycles or fundamentals, aside from using the tired old myth that currently low interest rates will prevent any meaningful price reduction.
He uses craigslist to support his theory that rents are going up so much that it’ll soon make sense to buy at current prices, which will cause a rush of new buyers. How do you even begin to help someone like that understand the market?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Al Gore is the Bob Rennie of Global Warming errr Climate Change…(and vice versa)
QED
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Disbelief Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Surprising that RE agent can even get up and tie his shoes putting them on the right feet… Theres one realtor I definately wouldn’t use… Not even to remove the trash cans at the end of my driveway. Schmucky Mcgee
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Anonymous Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
nicolisa bought her heritage house in 2007, the same year thepress took possession of her presale.
reading between their lines, they are smug on their clever purchase.
most advice-seekers think they are cleverer than most. if everyone tells them to sell, they will do the opposite, wait till the market goes up or rent out. let the declining market do the job
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bdk Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
This mike stewart guy is spamming up a lot of vancouver real estate blogs now.
does anyone know this guy? i’ve never heard of him and he’s insulting people using his own name, which’ll look great when clients google him in the future.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Words I hate in Real Estate Ads re: neighbourhoods like Yaletown
– Trendy (Barf)
– Hip (Barrrrf)
– Upscale, ( Triple Barrrfffff oh no there goes the 1st kidney))
– Hip again, ahhhhh
– Starbucks ( barrrfffff there goes the 2nd kidney barrrrrrrrffffff)
Now I feel better
Hi Mr. Rennie Season’s Greetings..how are the FUN duh MENTALS
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BlipBlop Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Hey folks, looks like Canada just got a new government: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story.....ition.html
Prepare for another BULL RUN, BULL RUN, BULL RUN, Vancouver, now that productivity will again be climbing out of negative territory that’s plagued us under the Harper government!
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Anonymous Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Mike Stewart? Any relation to Mike Hawk?
Sounds like another realtor trying to raise his profile.
Do what we do with children crying for attention.
Stick em in the naughty corner and ignore em.
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Vansanity Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Anecdote: Guy I know’s inlaws business going under. Wife’s family trust now in question. Inlaws have plenty tied up in illiquid overvalued RE, oh joy! The guy and his wife are in interior now renting around $1,500. They bought a presale in Langley for $329,000. Now complete, tried to sell at $349,000 no dice. Now renting at $1400 and payments are $2000 plus. Inlaws cosigned on the presale (who needs a presale these days? ya, exactly). Neg cash flow plus the rent plus hanging on hoping… this guy’s world is collapsing around him and he’s too ignorant to realize it.
It’s like the aliens on X-Files…”They’re out there” talking about specuvestors in denial.
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patriotz Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Don’t know if it’s just me, but this seems to be unravelling much faster than the 81 collapse,
Absolutely. It took a whole year from the 1981 market peak for the recession and job losses to hit.
This time it took six months.
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richard1 Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
this strata can’t fix their roof because
“…we have a large group of new owners who purchased with high mortgages who are voting against the resolution, mainly because they can’t afford the cost.”
another reason to avoid condos for now.
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mino3 Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KvQR-h_ct0
Ian Watt says STOP RENTING, BUY NOW!
I love the condescending tone.. “look at yourself in the mirror and admit you’ll be a bitter renter forever!”
I’m not sure why he’s insulting the only group of people who will be in any position to buy after the bubble has popped.
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Vansanity Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
mino3 – I completely agree. On a similar note, here’s a letter to the editor about how it’s the medias fault for not putting more sunshine stories about RE and the economy on the front page:
http://www.canada.com/northsho.....c61f99b9b6
That’s it! We’ll just have the media report that everything is tickity boo and we’ll then be the richest nation in the world! We’ve finally figured it out! Un-be-f***in-lievable!
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mino3 Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Vansanity, that’s a great find. It captures the essence of the clueless masses who are blissfully unaware how the world around them works. They just throw tantrums when they’re not getting their way.
People are throwing the “R” word around quite a bit lately, but as far as I’m concerned, if we do fall into a recession, I will chose not to take part in it and continue to spend my money regardless.
In Tyler Gump’s universe, recessions are voluntary!
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Stupid is as stupid does
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greedy pig Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Wishing price $448k – V742666
Owner paid $150k in 2002
200% profit in 6 years
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Drachen Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Real Estate’s like a box of chocolates…
His IQ matches, maybe the Tyler part is a pseudonym?
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jesse Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Ian Watt sounds a bit frustrated in that video, mino3. What a slimy old sales trick: insult the mark’s value system and verbalize their insecurities in a last-ditch effort to close the sale. That’s the same sh!t they pull in timeshare sales JUST BEFORE YOU LEAVE THE SALES OFFICE WITHOUT SIGNING ANYTHING. I wonder if that slimeball tactic ever works.
My advice to Ian Watt, stop driving when recording your videos. You’ll save precious money on gas.
“Bitter Realtor” Ian Watt, ladies and gentleman.
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Draken is an idiot Says:
November 30th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
What a R joke?
Arts groups report strong sales despite recession fears
Kevin Garland, executive director of the National Ballet of Canada, says sales took a dive in the fall after a series of bad financial events but things are now looking up.
Shoppers skip U.S. Black Friday bus charters, hit Canadian sales.
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Raincouver Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 1:21 am
#88 -
I have to give me deposit away for free because i can’t complete.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..65992.html
That listing has been around since July or August – CL doesn’t go back far enough to show the whole history.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....06101.html
This posting from Oct. is still talking about flipping the contract. At least, he’s given up on that.
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pipi Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 1:58 am
“Engineer formally charged with murders owned 19 homes and vacant lots worth more than US$2.4 millions”
Will this happen in Vancouver.
Hello employers, check that the employees you are about to fire are not deadly leveraged.
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Vancouver is different, too Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 6:22 am
” Here in L.A., we’re down 27.6% in October from a year ago and off 32.6% from their 2006 peak, according to Case-Shiller.
New Yorkers justifying the apparent side-stepping of a full-on real estate crash cite variations on many of the same themes once offered by those who arguing Los Angeles was not in a bubble: undeveloped land is scarce, everyone in the world wants to live there, it’s filled with rich people and immigrants who pool their money to buy homes, etc…”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.co.....ork-d.html
New Yorkers are so dumb,they don’t realize all the rich people want to live in Vancouver, where there is a shortage of land and rich immigrants.
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blueskies Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 7:28 am
from jesse:
“Bitter Realtor” Ian Watt, ladies and gentleman.
yeshh! what a maroon!!
this video will haunt the internet
for all of eternity….
instant and permanent karma….
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 7:37 am
Post # 135
Good point.
How many people purchased older condos in this once ” Hot ” market and carried quite a debt load? If too many of these highly -leveraged types bought into a given condo complex, they could drag the entire strata down when repairs, delayed ones or otherwise, cannot be ignored.
Same with new condos…In this last boom…how much crap was built that will soon begin to show its flaws. In a boom OR a bust , there is more incentive to cut corners and finish it fast , quality be damned . Just because the market price goes down does not mean that latent defects exist or may be exposed later that further depreciate the value whatever it is at a given point in time.
My guess is we will see a lot more of this phenomenon…..bankruptcies , lawsuits etc. etc. and a lot of misery. In hindsight it was all quite predictable.
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Alexcanuck Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 7:43 am
In hindsight it was all quite predictable.
So is everything, in hindsight. This one was predictable in foresight, to anyone not blinded by greed (Sheep) or muffled by greed (RE professionals). A few history lessons would help. It is never “Different this time”.
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VHB Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 7:57 am
“Bitter Realtor”
Jesse. Thank you for coining this phrase. I hope that this becomes part of common parlance ’round these parts. I like it a lot. Let’s use it.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 7:59 am
re Ian Watt et al
It pretty clear that these types drink the same kool – aid via barfing out the same talking points from the same manual to convince you it is a good time to buy even post RE armaggedon.
They don’t seem to realize that perhaps THE last sucker(who would be intersting to ID is UNKNOWN last Specuvestor X) has entered the abyss,entered the fiscal black hole,and there are no more sheep, that herd is wiped out.
Watt is acting like an asshole, putting down renters….maybe not considering renters as potential buyers who were perhaps saving to buy a condo till they got overwhelmed by specuvestors. Renters on their way to becoming purchasers would create a much more stable RE market than the specuvestor.
Can’t have it both ways…Ian Watt, and if I were you I’d pull that video,… I doubt there are many morons left that would drink your kool aid. Those hundreds that have already gotten burned have had a rude and bitter awakening.
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Anonymous Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 8:34 am
My lady-love overheard that Ian Watt thing as she was doing her hair, kept saying “that’s not real, that’s just a comedy routine!” Still not sure if she believed me. Not positive myself!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 8:40 am
Ian Watt mentioned his e-mail address at the end of the sales(?) [ comedy(?) ] routine.
Contact him and ask em.
Suggest first approaching him as a sincere buyer aka ” repentant renter” who has had an epiphany and see what the response is.
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mino3 Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 9:02 am
A comedy routine is prepared and rehearsed, whereas Ian Watt is just rambling into a webcam.
That said, it’s the unintended comedy that is usually the funniest.
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john Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 9:37 am
Now that the NDP and the Bloc will be in charge the real estate market will sky rocket again. Having separatists in the government of this nation will inspire the confidence of the world over. Rich asians have been waiting for the conversative government to be overthrown by a coalition of socialists, separatists and liberals before buying more condos in Vancovuer. I’m perfectly positioned for this.
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cashisking Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 9:47 am
How old is this Ian Watt?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 11:37 am
I think John is right and onto something
If the Tories are bounced out from power…and the NDP and Lieberals are in power, Dion (or Iggy) will legislate high condo prices (except in Quebec). Jack Layton will demand all the union jobs at the Big 3 automakers will be protected and given raises too….then there will be lots of cash flowing again to buy condos. To keep the Bloc happy…condo warranties “fine print” will be in French. Socialists are generally hypocrites…they elbow everybody out when the gravy starts to flow,…they like to drive luxury cars and deep down they know Al Gore is full of sh*t.
The Tories will watch CNN from a safe distance and watch Canada collapse, then come back into power ,(…should only take a couple of weeks after Dion and Layton have their first hissy fit.)
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Freddy the Freeloader Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Nice job Vansanity. But I would like to propose that Tyler Gump is a “Bitter Realtor”. Google “Tyler Gump” & North Vancouver. What do you get……Bitter Realtor