OECD: Canada in recession
According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Canada is in a recession and heading for a deficit. And who’s to blame? Ontario and BC.
Across Canada EI claims actually dropped month over month, except for in Ontario and BC where they surged 14% over the year in Ontario and 11.5% in BC. Ontario has the auto manufacturing sector to blame for the downturn, while here at home we’re seeing an alarming decline in forestry revenues not to mention the sharp downturn in the housing market where prospects are looking more grim with each passing month, particularly when it comes to downtown Vancouver condos.
Meanwhile in the financial sector Canadian banks have started asking Ottawa for a major cash injection to help stem a rising tide of bad loans. BMO figures show bad loans have already exceeded the peak reached in 2001 after the dot com crash, and are well on their way to levels seen in the last recession almost 20 years ago.
The bright side? If you’re looking for temporary office space to sublease in Vancouver, it looks like you have lots of options right now.
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bezar Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 10:12 am
I’m no 1
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gadwin Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 10:13 am
This is the point I’ve been hammering across in the RT forums. When there are mass layoffs in the economy due to the recession, there will be an increase in foreclosures and many jobless speculators won’t be able to make their mortgage payments.
The final nail in the coffin for our real estate market will be the layoffs that follow the recession. If you think the real estate market is bad now, wait until the layoffs start rolling. At that point, Vancouver will be in an unprecedented free fall, and we could possibly see REBGV supply push 30,000 units.
Specuvestors, if you think rationally for a moment, you have to CUT PRICE AND SELL ASAP before the layoffs come in droves and prices go DOWN, DOWN, and DOWN.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 10:24 am
So much for government jobs being a safe haven:
http://tinyurl.com/5b7ek2
Local union representatives are meeting with New Westminster School District administrators today to discuss the serious budget shortfall the district is facing this year.
Local Canadian Union of Public Employees president Marcel Marsolais said they are concerned about layoffs. He said the district is in worse shape than predicted. He couldn’t go into detail because he hadn’t met with the district at press time, but he said “it doesn’t sound good.”
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 10:29 am
By the way, other than Surrey, New West is one of the only School Districts with increasing enrollment. It was one of the last places young families could buy a house.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 10:30 am
“other than”=”along with”
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Archer Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 10:44 am
That many Vancouverites still cling to the hope that we will quickly recover from this housing downturn speaks volumes to the incredible power of Denial. We had bad metrics while our economy was good, now that the economic klaxons are sounding all across the country real estate in Vancouver is looking like poison.
I know only one person who bought Vancouver real estate in 2008 (compared to almost 20 in 2007) and they bought a condo for 25% off the comparable sale from last summer.. And you know what? They still aren’t sure if they want to remove subjects and go through with the sale, and who can blame them?
Look at our economic outlook and then look to our nearest neighbor whose house prices have been sliding for two years and are only predicted to get worse.
Amateur ‘investors’ and speculators are discovering there’s no such thing as perpetual motion, in physics or economics.
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Vansanity Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Again, forestry is our main industry in BC and has been getting hammered for over a year. Real estate/construction boomed and made up for the shortfall. The problem with that? Overbuilding leading to saturation, creating unsustainability.
Now we’ll watch as projects complete and the job losses mount. This is still just the very tip of the iceberg.
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Vansanity Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Seattle has been declining, down almost 10% yoy. Looking like things are gaining downward momentum there. Have a read:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/.....ource=mypi
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john Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 11:46 am
BC and Vancouver are two different things. Yes they are the both the part of the best place on earth but Vancouver is like a whole different area of the best place on earth. There was never forestry jobs in Vancouver like there were in BC. Construction in Vancouver remains strong. Trucks and SUVs are still being bought. Condos are still being built. Homes are still selling.
The rest of BC is in trouble yes but Vancouver is different because of :
the new mayor’s homeless elimination program
1) the Olympics
2) rich asians
3) the lack of land
4) the proximity of the ocean
5) the port
6) the cruise ships
7) the rich tourists
9) the safe injection site
10) THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH BABY!
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jesse Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 11:53 am
“The problem with that? Overbuilding leading to saturation, creating unsustainability. “
The warning bells should have been that most of the economic gains were wrought with debt. When debt disappears there’s no mo money, plus the bag holders — mostly locals — need to pay their debts back to the lenders who mostly located out of province. Normally this would be fine and dandy if the building produced sustainable increased revenues but this is definitely NOT the case since incomes and rents have barely budged as a result. That is a huge future drain on BC’s GDP.
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Dosh Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Yes, the economy is going through some tough times, but like it always does it will turn around. Patience in a virtue, running around in a panic doesn’t accomplish anything.
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blah Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
For all of the talk about Vancouver downtown RE dropping, there’s nothing dropping into my price range. You can throw out stats, but I’m on the market, and prices aren’t dropping in the low range DT. Maybe in Burnaby, Richmond and NW, but not DT, not yet.
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read on Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Dosh, perhaps we should all just take “Happy Pills”, like the Sun suggested this weekend. Or, for a more permanent “attitude adjustment”, get lobotomies…
Oh wait, then they’d have to fund the health system to provide them…
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jesse Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
“Patience in a virtue, running around in a panic doesn’t accomplish anything.”
I picture a flipper sitting cross-legged on the floor of his condo meditating as the bailiffs come in to repossess.
The next two years are going to be a buffalo jump. No panic required until you’re over the cliff and reality slaps you in the face. Until then, aaaauuummmmmmmm.
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Mr. G. Campbell Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Jesse:
I am disappointed in you. I do realize others have made fun of Aaron, but your prank is the most heartless of all.
When you encourage him” to write more articles” and for his “expert opinion” he doesn’t know you are just teasing him.
Shame on you meanie
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Dosh Dumbhead Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
dosh, you are a very dumb little boy.
The more stupid things you say, the more proof you are providing that you are really feeble minded and the more likely your previous stupid comments are to be re posted
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Drachen Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
jesse
“I picture a flipper sitting cross-legged on the floor of his condo meditating as the bailiffs come in to repossess.”
You watch too much American TV. Sheriffs do that job here.
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VanTOVan Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
I’ve been in contact with a potential realtor for next year. Naturally I needed to sound him out on how he feels about lowball offers. Here is some of his response:
Real Estate news is often misinterpreted by the public. For example when you are told the market is down, that may not be prices are down that may mean sales volume is down. … This decrease in sales volume has created lots of hype but many people are misinterpreting it.
… There really only is a $10,000 drop in Detached houses since the high of November 2007.
The prices could continue to go down or that could change and prices could stay the same or prices could climb again. We recovered quickly in the spring market of 2001 after the 2000 election of Bush in the states. The same thing might happen again.
…
If you are getting advise from other people, friends, colleges, ect., please make sure they know what they are talking about. Ask them for proof, I can always show you proof to back up what I am saying.
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Drachen Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
pope
There’s some wonkyness with the “submit comment” button in Firefox 3.0.4
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john Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
I have been saying for some time now that I am seeing a much different picture than the bears here and the press and the naysayers. The economy in Vancouver is on fire and so is the market for condos. VanToVan you should heed the advice of your Realtor since he is a professional.
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.dosh Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
“Yes, the economy is going through some tough times, but like it always does it will turn around. Patience in a virtue, running around in a panic doesn’t accomplish anything.”
Most economists agree that the United States is in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and that it has already fallen into a severe recession that is likely to be one of the deepest in decades.
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jesse Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
“When you encourage him” to write more articles” and for his “expert opinion” he doesn’t know you are just teasing him.”
Gordo, actually I honestly encourage him. His article was well written and reasoned, if a little late.
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paulb Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
VantoVan
The benchmark price of a detached home has dropped from 765k in March 08 to 695k in Oct. So a 70k drop in 7-8 months.
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Tim Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
“The benchmark price of a detached home has dropped from 765k in March 08 to 695k in Oct. So a 70k drop in 7-8 months.”
My GF lives around Parker and Gilmore, there are two new built homes for sale 2 blocks east of Gilmore, and they actually have “REDUCED BY $70,000″ on the for sale sign.
They have had several open houses, not takers.
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read on Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
“If you are getting advise from other people, friends, colleges, ect., please make sure they know what they are talking about.”
*****
Advice. Your realtor is functionally illiterate. Trust not his words.
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Archer Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
“… There really only is a $10,000 drop in Detached houses since the high of November 2007.”
Those are weasel words. The market high wasn’t in November 2007, prices were still rising. Paulb pointed out above losses from the market ‘high’ is actually $70k, that’s what he and any other honest realtor will tell you.
The alarming thing is the rapid decline in prices and the way that the price drops are accelerating combined with the absolute dearth of buyers.
How anyone can look at whats happening in the US housing market, the global and local economy and our complete lack of fundamentals in real estate and say “prices could stay the same or prices could climb again” is either clueless or desperate to make a sale. Based on those comments I would not use that realtor. There are many others in Vancouver that will be more honest with you.
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Purp Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Specuvestors, if you think rationally for a moment, you have to CUT PRICE AND SELL ASAP before the layoffs come in droves and prices go DOWN, DOWN, and DOWN.
How many Specuvestors do you think read bearish RE blogs like this one? “Hard to get someone to understand when their investment income depends on them not understanding it”
Although, maybe if a few more DID read these blogs, we wouldn’t be in quite the mess we are now….
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Dosh Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Anyone that uses the insult ‘dumhead’ is someone I’m glad I don’t share an opinion with. Whats with the idiot that wants to impersonate me? Are you 14? Can’t you just have a civilized debate?
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MickeyFinn Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Real estate prices are always “sticky” when they are going down. People will do anything and everything possible to not sell at a loss… even if that loss is only a paper loss from what the owner “believes” his/her property is worth.
And so prices have not fallen all that much just yet. But don’t confuse the modest declines in real estate prices that we have seen to-date in Vancouver with any kind of “stability” in the overall market. The pressure is rising for prices to literally collapse!
The pressure is coming from both sides of the real estate game…
On the one side, buyers have clearly gone on strike. Anyone with even half a brain will not buy in this market.
and,
On the other side, supply is building at a massive rate as condo’s from the outrageously frothy pre-sales of the past couple of years are completing now and over the next twenty months or so.
Consider that water dripping on a stone will eventually wear a hole through the rock. In a similar slow and methodical fashion, the pressure will continue to build on Vancouver’s real estate market… at some point some of the sellers will be forced to sell (divorces, margin calls, bankruptcies, estate sales… just to name a few will cause some sellers to dump their properties at whatever the market will bear) and the damn will burst and yesterday’s prices will seem like pure fiction.
Fundamentally, Vancouver’s real estate is over-valued because prices are massively out of line from rents. That situation couldn’t have persisted for the long term even in the absence of the global financial turmoil that we are now seeing.
(By the way, the “buyers strike” in the Vancouver real estate market is basically the same effect that is currently causing global deflation… buyers are on-strike all over the planet… read the financial news, we are seeing inventories of automobiles rising, copper, coal and oil supplies are rising as well, and same store sales at virtually every retailer other than Walmart are falling too. All of these apparently disparate industries are being affected by the same thing… a lack of consumer confidence.)
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NO-LYMPICS Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Interesting (and timely) article on “The Tyee”
The Great Depression in BC (circa 1929)
http://thetyee.ca/Views/2008/11/26/BCDepression/
Interesting parellels now versus then
FYI: William Shelley was the BC Finance Minister of the day
QUOTE
“After the crash”
The stock market crash of October 1929 did not cause the global economic depression that gripped the industrialized world in the 1930s. But it was a defining event that signaled a dramatic end to a hitherto unprecedented era of rising prosperity and progress, and the beginning of a lengthy period of economic uncertainty, social turmoil and political upheaval.
The last years of the Roaring ’20s marked an economic peak that would not soon be seen again. In B.C. in 1929, the average annual income hit $600; four years later it had dropped all the way down to $353.
Similarly, the gross value of manufactured products in B.C. in the year of the crash was $273.7 million; four years later it was about half that figure, $140.5 million. And whereas the value of construction contracts in the province in 1929 totaled $54.4 million; the comparable figure in 1932 was one-sixth as much, a mere $8.6 million.
Thousands upon thousands of people lost their jobs. Among trade union members in B.C., the unemployment rate skyrocketed from a minuscule 2.6 per cent in June 1929, to a nearly-unbelievable 26 per cent in December 1932.
Already shaky, the provincial government’s finances underwent a dramatic deterioration. Revenues collapsed, the fiscal deficits grew even larger, and the debt soared ever higher.
And in a shocking development, William C. Shelly, the province’s business-oriented finance minister and one of B.C.’s wealthiest individuals, lost nearly everything he owned.”
==========================================================
ALSO
” Echoes of Herbert Hoover”
Throughout the budget speech, Shelly called for “business principles” to be adopted by the government. And he concluded his address with the observation that “it is in my considered opinion the whole country is yearning for less political strife and more business methods applied to governmental operations.”
Such a view was not then unique to Shelly nor to British Columbia. Twelve days later, a newly-elected U.S. president with a similar philosophy was sworn into office.
“The election has again confirmed the determination of the American people,” said Herbert Hoover on March 4, 1929 in his inaugural address, “that regulation of private enterprise and not government ownership or operation is the course rightly to be pursued….”
Andrew Mellon, Hoover’s treasury secretary — a Pittsburgh banker and one of the richest men in the United States — later put it even more succinctly: “The government is just a business, and can and should be run on business principles.”
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bdk Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Dosh are you for real or are you a joker like John?
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Alexcanuck Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
I think Dosh is for real. And John is not a joker. Jokers are funny, and come up with new material when their shtick gets stale.
John: It’s getting REALLY stale! Stinky stale! Vegas Elvis stale!
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Phase 1, 2 and 3 still not sold Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Perfect storm deluxe
A few million homedebtors in the US are hanging on to a false hope that the government bail out will make their 200k house worth 500k again.
By the time there is a universal acknowledgement that government bail outs can’t and aren’t intended to bring back bubble prices, our local real estate market will be half way to the bottom, which is when I expect full acceleration into an overcorrection will begin.
I anticipate listings should reach 35,000 by mid summer 2009.
Keeping an eye on the pimps
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Anonymous Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
20 Dosh Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
wonder what happens if the U.S. drags Canada into a recession.
Not going to happen. IF the US goes into recession it might have an effect back east, but Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world and we’re not manufacturing widgets. We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.
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Anonymous Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Dosh Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Nobody wants to live in the US, thats why their prices are down. Its all about demand, and demand for canadian property, Vancouver in specific is what people want.
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Anonymous Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Dosh Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 2:55 pm
I see someone is obsessing over what I said and then claiming I denied it. When did I ever deny saying that, and better yet, whats your point? Are we in a recession that all of the news media is keeping secret from us? Are you saying I’m wrong that eastern Canada gets the worst of any slowdown in the US? You should try offering up your own arguments instead of just repeating my comments.
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Anonymous Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
15 Dosh Says:
April 9th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Why is this big news? A 25% chance of anything is pretty low, they’re predicting that theres triple the chance that a global recession will not happen.
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last one from dosh for today Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Dosh Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Keep on dreaming. If you can buy real estate now but are afraid you should get in while you can. Every time you post one of these stories its like you dont notice the really obvious fact that this news is not about Vancouver and not about Canada. Your stretching for bad news in other countries while real estate here continues to be a rock solid investment.
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Dosh Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Refusing to panic makes you a joker? Some of you guys need to get some perspective.
#34 – Is Vancouver is a recession? because I don’t see it. You’ve got to admit that Vancouver has higher demand for property that most US markets. There is a credit market problem at the moment, but do you really think thats going to last forever? As soon as credit unfreezes that people will be able to buy again and sales will go up – that may take a while, but it will happen.
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YLTNBoomerang Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
It’s taken a while, but finally a confirmation of a townhouse on my tracking list that is listed below the last sale price:
v744822 bought on July 31 2007 for 615,000 now listed at 599,000.
That is a guaranteed loss to the pocket of at least $16,000 plus real estate fees however there is no way this is going for list price considering it is still over the assessed value of 589,000. My prediction is this bad boy will go for 399,000 tops resulting in a nice $200K loss for the specuvestor.
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browntown Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
oh yeaaah tigers! helicopter ben busy today! bears could be stuck holding the nutbag!
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Brittanny Originals Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
My friend listed her condo one month ago in the Fraser Valley.No offers so far.She bought it about a year ago.Her realtor recently told her to reduce her price by 20% if she wants it sold. The new price would be 25% less than what she paid for it. She said there is no way she is going to sell it for that and would re-list in the Spring.I told her that alot of people are doing the same thing and it may be very likely that she may take a larger hit at that time. She told me that I am not a real estate professional and should keep my advice to myself and not be such a “negative” person.I told her that most realtors are not professionals, but that her realtor was giving her good advice at the moment. She told me to F… O..
A perfect example of stickiness in the market on the way down.
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Garth Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
With respect to job losses in a recession:
I am a grad student at UBC, but I’ve spent the last 3 months at the University of Osaka. There are dramatic differences in the way the two universities are run. At UBC we have a cleaning crew of about 10 people that goes through the building every afternoon. They clean and polish the floors and empty garbage cans. This takes all evening. I’m sure they must be union. In the last 3 months at Osaka I have yet to see a single professional cleaner at the University. At one point I saw a student with a vacuum cleaner. That’s it. They also skimp on lighting and heating/cooling costs. The buildings are perpetually dark and hot or cold.
The point is that there is a LOT of potential in Vancouver for layoffs. If things get bad all of these cleaning crews and people like them who are “nice to have” but not essential will be canned. The whole union thing could be a barrier to that, but if things are bad enough even the unions will cave.
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yaa Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
saw an interesting sale in the steveston area yesterday. list price was $569k, sold for $488k. assessed value is $547. $488k is inline with the previous year’s assessment.
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bdk Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Hey Dave, now that the mild,gentle dip has occurred are prices on the way back up?
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Arit Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Hey Garth (43),
I have read your site, very interesting stuff. I would really like to talk to you a bit about your area of expertise, but without derailing this thread. If at all interested (and obviously we do not wish to post email addresses here), we could converse here:
http://www.bemecollective.blogspot.com/
Best regards,
arit
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Dave Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
No.
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patriotz Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
My friend listed her condo one month ago in the Fraser Valley.No offers so far.She bought it about a year ago.
So why is she trying to sell it after owning it for only a year?
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bdk Says:
November 26th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
I’m starting to miss the magical prices will only go up forever euphoria!
http://archrecord.construction.....015abi.asp
So far the most optimistic views I can find are saying 2010.
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Brittanny Originals Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 2:58 am
patriotz—–She trying to sell because she works at Home Depot and her hours have been cut and her husband works in construction as a plumber and his hours have been cut. They want to move back to her parents basement suite. They both have car payments as well.
Basically they were already living beyond their means when the SHTF.
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anonymous Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 3:57 am
i work for a foreclosure company in phoenix, business is really slow, i need to move back with my parents too. the big money is in professional blogging.
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NO-LYMPICS Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 6:58 am
After the sh*t hit the fan, there will be a denial lag till spring.
People will have a reasonable handle on their futures, and then try to make a decision. ( I know many of us have an ” I told you so ” view to the parties that bought the BS hook line and sinker, but still the collateral consequences will affect everyone).
I don’t anticipate a spring turnaround, I think it will be worse, as more product comes on line as projects in the works come onto the market. If the market has already tanked, adding more product over the next year is simply exacerbating the situation.
It would be great if someone could find the number of units that are not yet completed but are in the process of being constructed , those should start showing up over the next year. I predict we will start having more and more auctions of unsold units.
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john Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 7:24 am
Now that federal funding is being cut, the Bloc will finally crawl back into it’s hole. This will spur the economy in the East which will lead to a massive condo buying frenzy by rich separatists who want in on the Vancouver condo lifestyle. Seperatists know what a great place Vancouver is but they’re blinded by Canada-hate. Once you take away the hate they’ll be buying.
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markx Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 7:51 am
If the recent trend keeps up, there won’t be a spring slaughter, as most bull may not survive the very cold winter. I say, let’s get this over with by next spring. Let the price fall back to 2000 levels, and everyone go do something productive, instead of buying and selling condos from each other.
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M- Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 7:58 am
NO-LYMPICS: you’ll find the number of units under construction on Mohican’s site:
http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com/
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patriotz Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 8:11 am
Basically they were already living beyond their means when the SHTF.
Surprise, surprise, surprise!
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VanTOVan Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 8:53 am
I sent back a reply to that realtor with a screenshot of paulb’s numbers. I highlighted the salesprice/listprice line (in the 90% range) to say it wasn’t all that out of whack to come in with lowball offers. He responded with a recent example (in the same neighbourhood) of some dipstick who paid 98% of list, saying with no small amount of condescension:
“Did you notice how close the accepted price is to the list price? The difference is 2%, not 10% which is what you said you were hearing in the community. Who ever is telling you there is a 10% spread from accepting price to list price does not know the true facts.”
Nice sample size!
fyi, this dude’s name is not Maggie
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jesse Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 9:20 am
“Who ever is telling you there is a 10% spread from accepting price to list price does not know the true facts.”
I dub this Realtor the Black Knight.
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Bowntown's Helper Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:00 am
HOW TO TAKE YOUR LISTING OFF THE MARKET?
Simply call your realtor and say i want my listing off the market then your realtor will serve you a document for confirmation.Do not sign any selling contract with realtors longer than 3 months.Do not encourage your realtors request to reduce the prices because when sales level is dead there is no need to reduce the prices because prices are not a reason for market slow down but other reason such volatile market situation as affordability has improved at the level of 2005 market will pick up very soon.In dead sales environment price reduction is an individual lost for sellers and individual gain for the buyers it does not affect over all market position.Rebgv math in the same environment does not work properly that’s why it produce a wrong picture to serve realtors and the boards own purpose to save their own jobs.Sellers who like to sell their porperties to buy again at low are adviced to take their listing off the market and keep their home for life by simply calling their realtors and say I want my list off the market from today.
CURRENT SCORE:200
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Archer Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:02 am
VanTOVan, that correspondence is hilarious, thanks for sharing! I’d love to see more of it if you carry on that conversation with him.
He’s responding to entire market stats with a single sale? I don’t think he’s ignorant, I think he’s hoping you are.
If he wants to exchange single sale stats you could always ask him about the one in West Van that sold Oct 14th for 40% less than asking (thanks to exx for tracking these):
http://img206.imageshack.us/im.....tionr7.jpg
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Archer Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:06 am
The Black Knight, too perfect Jesse!
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Anonymous Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:07 am
“So a 70k drop in 7-8 months.”
So what? Thats only $1000 a month, you all throw more than that away on rent each month. This is a buying opportunity if you dont want to get priced out of the market.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Re: Price drops
http://www.foresttrailsatgarrison.com/
QUOTE:
” This is a development of 40 or so smaller townhomes in the eastern Fraser Valley – Chilliwack. The asking price for these townhomes in May 2008 was $269,900 and today they are $199,900 with an additional offer of special financing for the first 3 years. It appears the developer is getting eager and wants to quickly unload the rest of this project. I am certain there is a fair bit of margin for the developer to work with here but I suspect the bonuses for those working at the developer won’t be gigantic this year”.
I wonder why the author of the above would say there is (still) a fair bit or margin for the developer. The developer is literally admitting the units are approx. $70,000 in profit( assuming that at $199,900 there is any profit left ). I can’t see much margin left..that has to be close to break even for that Chilliwack market.
I think that when we not only see ” Price Reduced” signs, but in fact all sort of ” Bonuses/Perks ” blatantly advertised to induce/seduce(?) buyers , that will be the next warning sign of the next quantum leap(dive) of market collapse.
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blueskies Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:15 am
“So a 70k drop in 7-8 months.”
So what? Thats only $1000 a month, you all throw more than that away on rent each month.
mathematically challenged are we?
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patriotz Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:19 am
He forgot the mortgage payments and taxes for the owner too.
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ted Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:24 am
He forgot the mortgage payments and taxes for the owner too.
Are you kidding?! He forgot the extra $9000 price drop each month. 70k in 7 months isn’t 1k a month, its 10k a month. Anyone paying that for rent is living pretty high on the hog.
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Mold City Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:27 am
It’s a troll guys, even a specuvestors math isn’t THAT bad.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Re my last post:
The Chilliwack development;
If not mistaken , it is on the Ex – CFB Chilliwack site, and is being developed by the Federal Govt -owned Canada Lands Company.
One of the developers listed on this particular project has a last name of “Les” and I do believe they are related to MLA John Les…who is on leave from his cabinet post due to that ALR issue.
Not implying anything, but interesting.
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Drachen Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Anonymous #62
““So a 70k drop in 7-8 months.”
So what? Thats only $1000 a month, you all throw more than that away on rent each month. This is a buying opportunity if you dont want to get priced out of the market.”
With math like that it’s no wonder you’re deluded.
$70,000 divided by 7 is $1,000 in your world? Try $10,000. If you spend that much in rent each month go ahead and buy something, the price difference won’t matter much to you.
And, as has been pointed out before, you are not “throwing money away” on rent. You’re paying for a service. Why don’t you stop throwing money away on food each day and buy a farm to grow it yourself?
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Drachen Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Mold City
“It’s a troll guys, even a specuvestors math isn’t THAT bad.”
It must be. They are still buying.
We need some conservation officers to visit here. Don’t these people know it’s illegal to bait bears in BC?
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Kuroame Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Anybody else feel like this is going to turn out to be much more than just a prolonged global recession/depression and may actually end up leading to a near or complete collapse of social order. How big was the house of cards and when it falls what will be left? How will all this change global political relationships, will it engender more serious armed conflict?
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Aleks Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:49 am
VanTOVan,
If it were me, I’d just send a polite note that I will continue searching for an informed realtor. However, since you’re posting his replies here and it’s entertaining, you should string him along for a while. Next I suggest you bring up rent multipliers, median income, and the Case-Shiller index. Not all in one email though.
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bdk Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:55 am
VanToVan,
There are good realtors out there and most of them are willing to cut their comission by 25% in the best of times.
If you’re looking for a good realtor in Vancouver I suspect a few people on this board could suggest one
(Paulb seems to be this boards favourite)
Let the troll throw $10,000 a month away being an owner and let him buy a farm too, you know when people who’re that dim (i.e. browntown, dosh) are getting involved in speculation there are no greater fools (Dosh/browntown are probably 1 IQ point away from being retarded)
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Mold City Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 11:56 am
I’d just send a polite note that I will continue searching for an informed realtor.
Oh please don’t do that! This stuff is too good, please keep chatting with him and posting the highlights here! I’m still trying to figure out where they are on the line between clueless and dishonest.
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YLTNBoomerang Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
If everyone is “waiting until Spring” to re-list, any guesses as to how many listings will balloon? I bought myself a new snowboard this year and was looking forward to spending the winter on the slopes but now I can’t wait until spring to see the debauchery!
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macchiato Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
I love the juicy irony that sheeple will experience, waiting, thinking the Spring will be better. In the end their very own collective actions to wait for Spring will essentially be a colossal backfire.
Although, I wonder if the disastrous, tragic numbers for November will scare people in to listing, probably note.
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YLTNBoomerang Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
I’m thinking early spring…
“January, it’s the new spring for Vancouver Real Estate”
I can hear Rennie saying in my mind…
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Unless mistaken , Realtors commissions are negotiable, and whether their clients are purchasers or sellers.
In my view, the so called well -known ones have gotten fat and lazy via the hot market,(likely used underlings to do the grunt work), and would be the last to admit the truth and thus the last realtor to use. In other words, I highly doubt anyone will see Bob Rennie degrade themselves buying or selling old crackerbox houses in bad parts of town
One needs a “hungry” realtor in a slow market,ie one willing to negotiate and “follow orders” , but not regale you with tales of past conquests as the market drops by the minute, if not second.
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john Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
One thing I know for sure is that bulls have thick coatings of fur and can withstand winters just fine. You just continue hibernating away you little bears while we’re out playing with the big boys. Vancouver condos never go down.
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VanTOVan Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Don’t get me wrong–I’m not trying to punk the realtor or anything. (That said, I’m not going to stop him from punking himself either…)
Someone actually recommended this guy to me. He’s supposed to be a real ball-breaker in negotiations. I just didn’t expect to be the one with the sore testicles
I’m not bored/mean enough to string him along, but if he sends me any more of his gems of economic analysis, I’ll serve them up.
Back to the hunt…
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islander Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
I could get kicked out of the guild for admitting this, but realtors’ commissions are not – in effect – negotiable.
Eg. Call a realtor from Red, White and Blue Balloon Real Estate. You agree to list with him. You enquire whether he’s flexible on his commission. You will be told: “Office policy requires that I charge xx%” (whatever the going rate is in that market).
What about the Competition Bureau, you ask? Well, other than it’s a toothless tiger that’s prosecuted about a half-dozen price-fixing cases (in the entire economy) in 30 years, here’s how it works:
What a realtor can’t say: “Everybody charges the same.” “It’s the going rate.”
What a realtor is allowed to say: “It’s office policy to charge xx%.” “I feel I’m worth xx% and here’s why….”
The difference: The verboten phrasing implies real estate brokerages have banded together to fix commissions. The allowed phrasing frames a commission structure as something that each individual office has arrived at independent of any other office.
Now, having said that. Please no cryin’ about commissions. These days there are many alternatives to paying full freight to companies with big balloons or yellow jackets.
There are real estate companies with flat fees, 1%, 2%, rebate programs and commissions negotiated to fit the circumstances of the sale and the lister. I should know, I’m one of those brokerages. A little research and anybody can get on MLS with a full-service broker at much-reduced cost. Much. Reduced.
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bdk Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
The realtors I’ve worked with and referred at a local red white and blue franchise have always given me 25% of their commission back in cash, I never received a T4A slip for it.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Red White and blue??? be more specific !
I haven’t a ballooning clue which REal MAXimum Estate firm thou referest to.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Islander…exactly my point.
Lack of flexibility moves to the bottom of the list.
If some firm states a set non – negotiable commission…fine…thank them and then go shop – around.
Its often like choosing betwen a dealership and a Ma and Pa garage to fix your car.
What is just ” BS overhead ” versus simply a quality cost – effective repair.
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blueskies Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
i’ve always liked big balloons…..
must be genetic
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Anonymous Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Will this whole economic downturn thing affect us here, even now that we’ve joined the ranks of important places like Turin, Nagano and Salt Lake City Utah?
Maybe someday we’ll get the summer corporate games and join really world class places like Montreal and Calgary.
Yes, I’m being sarcastic.
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Mold City Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
bulls have thick coatings of fur and can withstand winters just fine.
Looks like you’re correct:
…And it’s a good thing since many of them are about to lose their houses. You may want to start collecting sufficient bedding material and look around for a dry resting area so you don’t become too wet or dirty John, I suppose an old SUV would fit the bill just fine!
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bdk Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Mold City, they could park a trailer in the backyard of their parents’ house.
Obviously the bitter bears already live in the basement.
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patriotz Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Anybody else feel like this is going to turn out to be much more than just a prolonged global recession/depression and may actually end up leading to a near or complete collapse of social order.
No.
I get the feeling you weren’t around during the late 60’s and 70’s – Vietnam War, FLQ, stagflation, wage and price controls, oil embargo, Watergate, Iran hostage crisis, etc.
Since the end of the early 80’s recession we have been spoiled. Well things get wonky every generation or so. But I don’t think we’re headed for Mad Max.
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Mold City Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Obviously the bitter bears already live in the basement.
That’s funny because I could have sworn it was previously happy bulls referenced in #50 that where the ones that had to sell and move into their parents basement.
Just pointing out the delicious irony.
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patriotz Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
The realtors I’ve worked with and referred at a local red white and blue franchise have always given me 25% of their commission back in cash, I never received a T4A slip for it.
That’s because it’s not income to you. It’s just a sales rebate like what you get after buying a stereo or whatnot. It is neither payment for work nor return on investment.
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vanguy Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
I guess i’m the rare bear who is excited about the Olympics.
Having said that, my favourite game to play with local RE boosters is to ask them to name the previous four Winter Olympics cities, and for bonus points the city after Vancouver.
Personally, I remember Turin, Salt Lake and then it gets fuzzy. I remember Sarajevo having alot of snow…when was that? Granted I did live in the UK during the Salt Lake games, and other than figure skating it didn’t get much coverage.
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Brittanny Originals Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
patriotz – Ever seen how angry a spoiled child gets when they don’t get their way? Whoa! I think some social unrest and higher crime levels are on the way as the candy store shelves become empty.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
re Olympics:
Just heard Gallager talk on the radio about suckers and their Olympic tickets to certain venues.
Some events won’t even allow the spectators to see much (ie Bobsled and Luge…)
Ski Jump is boorrring( maybe they should let the females in it to spice it up ??? ).
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Interesting extortion attempts by VANOC
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....hColumbia/
QUOTE:
As an official community partner, Port Moody would be allowed to display a special logo on its letterhead and business cards, and receive VANOC assistance in developing a plan to market itself around the Olympics.
“But Port Moody is not a private corporation. We’re a community,” Mr. Trasolini said. “People feel it’s a slap in the face. To the average resident in the street, it seems to be all about money and not about community participation. In my opinion, it does change the aura of the Olympic organizing committee.”
In West Vancouver, host of snowboarding and aerial events on Cypress Mountain above the city, it took a payment of $1-million to VANOC in order to secure the affluent enclave’s designation as an official venue city for the Games.
But the money did not come from the city. It came from six local residents with deep pockets, after a poll showed the vast majority of taxpayers were against the idea.
“It’s very clear to me that nobody wants to put additional resources in,” Mayor Pam Goldsmith-Jones told reporters at the time. “I think British Columbians in general feel like their provincial and federal tax dollars have been heavily invested [already].”
New Democratic Party Olympics critic Harry Bains accused VANOC of strong-arming local communities to pay for the privilege of being officially associated with the Winter Olympics.
“Community after community is feeling left out, unless they come up with big bucks to participate in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” Mr. Bains said yesterday. “I say good for the mayor of Port Moody to stand up to VANOC. The operating budget for the Olympics is supposed to be privately funded by tickets, merchandise and sponsorships. But now, they’re coming to taxpayers to pay again.”
Horses heads in beds soon ?
Gentlemen , place your bets.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
“Since the end of the early 80’s recession we have been spoiled. Well things get wonky every generation or so. But I don’t think we’re headed for Mad Max.”
Yeah, the luxury spending in the last few has been quite disgusting.
When I was a kid in the 70s and 80s, nobody renovated, families went to dinner only on special occasions, birthday parties were low-budget affairs with home-made cake and modest presents, and people thought nothing of driving 10 year-old cars. That was in middle-class North Vancouver.
Its the renovations that really blow my mind. We’ll never see anything like that again…thank God…a kitchen can last 30 years, you know.
One thing, though, we don’t have the safety-net of the 80s recession and the drugs are more dangerous. There is little to stop a downward spiral other than loving family and friends.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
“out” to dinner
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Ignatius Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Over at PaulB’s blog, we learn that this house (1830 S.W. Marine Dr. Van. West – http://www.lynnjohnson.ca/Acti...../Details/) went for $1,850,000 … or $1,000,000 below asking! Can those in the know (i.e. those with access to the RE info) post a “shave of the day” every day? It very useful – and more than a bit entertaining – to see what places are starting to sell for. Why pay $1,300,000+ for a house in Kits when a 5000 sq.ft. mansion on SW Marine goes for only $500,000 more??
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Ulsterman Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
In Florida they are auctioning off new condo developments. Look at what you get in some hick town known as West Palm Beach for the kind of money that you would spend in cosmopolitan Surrey Abbotsford for a similar property.
“After a practice round of paddle-raising, bidding began on the first unit, a 1,180-square-foot two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo on the 12th floor with views of downtown West Palm Beach, Clear Lake and the ocean.
“The last asking price was $511,000, and we have a minimum unbelievable selling price today, and today only, of $190,000,” Mr. Cullum rattled off in his auctioneer cadence. “Do I have a $190,000 opening bid? One-ninety! Thank you. Now, let’s get $200,000.”
After a flurry of bidding, the apartment sold for $225,000 to a woman with a pink sweater tied around her neck, who ultimately purchased 19 units on behalf of a real estate investment company based in Pittsburgh.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11.....1&8dpc
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richard1 Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Whistler Buyer’s Market
And here i was thinking the olympics guaranteed rising real estate markets.
I find this bit ironic “He said the United Kingdom tour operators are reporting that their winter sales to all Canadian resorts are down, but they are down the least for Whistler.
McDonald said officials believe that is because of growing awareness of Whistler’s status as co-host of the 2010 Olympics.”
awareness is growing but sales are slipping. he he he.
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richard1 Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
hey, who registered my name????? oh well. maybe i’ll just pick another name. if you want your name, i guess you’d all better register…
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Patiently Waiting Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Oh yes, speaking of 2010. I heard some Whistler hotel spokesthingy say they are going to reduce accommodations costs for 2010 tourists, to ensure they still visit. So much for greedy homoaners who planned to rent closets for a thousand a night. I can’t wait to see the disappointment :O)
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Raincouver Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
vanguy Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
I guess i’m the rare bear who is excited about the Olympics.
Yeah, and you’re going to get even rarer. A little more than a year from now we (globally) will be in the depths of a depression – and in all probablity, some kind of war scenario.
Yet, there are many Vancouverites that think the entire world will be focused on our 2 week sporting event. And we will be famous forever.
I knew this would end badly.
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patriotz Says:
November 27th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Realtors commissions are negotiable, and whether their clients are purchasers or sellers.
The client of a commissioned salesperson is the seller, only. A sales commission is an incentive to sell for the highest possible price. You cannot be an agent of the buyer if you are incented to act against the buyer’s interests.
and in all probablity, some kind of war scenario.
Canada is already in a war scenario. If you’re talking about a war between major powers, it’s not going to happen, for the same reason it hasn’t happened since 1945.
Even the US has decided that it has had enough of the war in Iraq, and people in authority have been saying that the conflict in Afghanistan cannot be settled by military force.
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Alex Curylo Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 6:57 am
“I get the feeling you weren’t around during the late 60’s and 70’s”
Difference is those weren’t global bad times. This does look like the first global bad time since the 1930s.
“Since the end of the early 80’s recession we have been spoiled. Well things get wonky every generation or so. But I don’t think we’re headed for Mad Max.”
Wee-eeelllll … you might want to not completely dismiss that possibility.
If global credit markets don’t get sorted out within three months, the commercial farm sector is going to have a hard time getting crops in this spring.
And the one really big difference from 1929 that most people are missing is that back then before mass transportation and refrigeration, virtually all food was produced within a day or two’s horsecart journey to the city. That is most definitely not the case now.
So you really shouldn’t be completely writing off the possibility of food riots coming down the pipe. You *definitely* should not write off the probability they’ll be avoided by insanely hyperinflationary policies and the consequent nationalization and wage and price controls that will make our economy all but indistinguishable from Soviet Russia in shortish order.
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Kuroame Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:16 am
“I get the feeling you weren’t around during the late 60’s and 70’s – Vietnam War, FLQ, stagflation, wage and price controls, oil embargo, Watergate, Iran hostage crisis, etc.”
No I wasn’t. I also wasn’t around for the great depression and WWII.
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Spectrum lover Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
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Sad for my friend Says:
November 29th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
My friend bought a pre-sale condo in Penticton two years ago for $500K including GST. The deal is completing and it was appraised at $360K only. My friend has to finance at 95% and paying CMHC 7.25% over total mortgage amount (about $25K). He also has to come up with extra $130K ($25K CMHC could be added to mortgage) to finish the deal, which he doesn’t have. He is totally screwed. Any one here lives in Penticton please check the development. I assume many speculators don’t have the extra money needed to close the deal. What will happen to them?