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November 27th, 2008 at 2:58 am
patriotz—–She trying to sell because she works at Home Depot and her hours have been cut and her husband works in construction as a plumber and his hours have been cut. They want to move back to her parents basement suite. They both have car payments as well.
Basically they were already living beyond their means when the SHTF.
November 26th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
I’m starting to miss the magical prices will only go up forever euphoria!
http://archrecord.construction.....015abi.asp
So far the most optimistic views I can find are saying 2010.
November 26th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
My friend listed her condo one month ago in the Fraser Valley.No offers so far.She bought it about a year ago.
So why is she trying to sell it after owning it for only a year?
November 26th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
No.
November 26th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Hey Garth (43),
I have read your site, very interesting stuff. I would really like to talk to you a bit about your area of expertise, but without derailing this thread. If at all interested (and obviously we do not wish to post email addresses here), we could converse here:
http://www.bemecollective.blogspot.com/
Best regards,
arit
November 26th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Hey Dave, now that the mild,gentle dip has occurred are prices on the way back up?
November 26th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
saw an interesting sale in the steveston area yesterday. list price was $569k, sold for $488k. assessed value is $547. $488k is inline with the previous year’s assessment.
November 26th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
With respect to job losses in a recession:
I am a grad student at UBC, but I’ve spent the last 3 months at the University of Osaka. There are dramatic differences in the way the two universities are run. At UBC we have a cleaning crew of about 10 people that goes through the building every afternoon. They clean and polish the floors and empty garbage cans. This takes all evening. I’m sure they must be union. In the last 3 months at Osaka I have yet to see a single professional cleaner at the University. At one point I saw a student with a vacuum cleaner. That’s it. They also skimp on lighting and heating/cooling costs. The buildings are perpetually dark and hot or cold.
The point is that there is a LOT of potential in Vancouver for layoffs. If things get bad all of these cleaning crews and people like them who are “nice to have” but not essential will be canned. The whole union thing could be a barrier to that, but if things are bad enough even the unions will cave.
November 26th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
My friend listed her condo one month ago in the Fraser Valley.No offers so far.She bought it about a year ago.Her realtor recently told her to reduce her price by 20% if she wants it sold. The new price would be 25% less than what she paid for it. She said there is no way she is going to sell it for that and would re-list in the Spring.I told her that alot of people are doing the same thing and it may be very likely that she may take a larger hit at that time. She told me that I am not a real estate professional and should keep my advice to myself and not be such a “negative” person.I told her that most realtors are not professionals, but that her realtor was giving her good advice at the moment. She told me to F… O..
A perfect example of stickiness in the market on the way down.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
oh yeaaah tigers! helicopter ben busy today! bears could be stuck holding the nutbag!
November 26th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
It’s taken a while, but finally a confirmation of a townhouse on my tracking list that is listed below the last sale price:
v744822 bought on July 31 2007 for 615,000 now listed at 599,000.
That is a guaranteed loss to the pocket of at least $16,000 plus real estate fees however there is no way this is going for list price considering it is still over the assessed value of 589,000. My prediction is this bad boy will go for 399,000 tops resulting in a nice $200K loss for the specuvestor.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Refusing to panic makes you a joker? Some of you guys need to get some perspective.
#34 – Is Vancouver is a recession? because I don’t see it. You’ve got to admit that Vancouver has higher demand for property that most US markets. There is a credit market problem at the moment, but do you really think thats going to last forever? As soon as credit unfreezes that people will be able to buy again and sales will go up – that may take a while, but it will happen.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Dosh Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Keep on dreaming. If you can buy real estate now but are afraid you should get in while you can. Every time you post one of these stories its like you dont notice the really obvious fact that this news is not about Vancouver and not about Canada. Your stretching for bad news in other countries while real estate here continues to be a rock solid investment.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
15 Dosh Says:
April 9th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Why is this big news? A 25% chance of anything is pretty low, they’re predicting that theres triple the chance that a global recession will not happen.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Dosh Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 2:55 pm
I see someone is obsessing over what I said and then claiming I denied it. When did I ever deny saying that, and better yet, whats your point? Are we in a recession that all of the news media is keeping secret from us? Are you saying I’m wrong that eastern Canada gets the worst of any slowdown in the US? You should try offering up your own arguments instead of just repeating my comments.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Dosh Says:
February 19th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Nobody wants to live in the US, thats why their prices are down. Its all about demand, and demand for canadian property, Vancouver in specific is what people want.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
20 Dosh Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
wonder what happens if the U.S. drags Canada into a recession.
Not going to happen. IF the US goes into recession it might have an effect back east, but Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world and we’re not manufacturing widgets. We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.
November 26th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Perfect storm deluxe
A few million homedebtors in the US are hanging on to a false hope that the government bail out will make their 200k house worth 500k again.
By the time there is a universal acknowledgement that government bail outs can’t and aren’t intended to bring back bubble prices, our local real estate market will be half way to the bottom, which is when I expect full acceleration into an overcorrection will begin.
I anticipate listings should reach 35,000 by mid summer 2009.
Keeping an eye on the pimps
November 26th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
I think Dosh is for real. And John is not a joker. Jokers are funny, and come up with new material when their shtick gets stale.
John: It’s getting REALLY stale! Stinky stale! Vegas Elvis stale!
November 26th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Dosh are you for real or are you a joker like John?
November 26th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Interesting (and timely) article on “The Tyee”
The Great Depression in BC (circa 1929)
http://thetyee.ca/Views/2008/11/26/BCDepression/
Interesting parellels now versus then
FYI: William Shelley was the BC Finance Minister of the day
QUOTE
“After the crash”
The stock market crash of October 1929 did not cause the global economic depression that gripped the industrialized world in the 1930s. But it was a defining event that signaled a dramatic end to a hitherto unprecedented era of rising prosperity and progress, and the beginning of a lengthy period of economic uncertainty, social turmoil and political upheaval.
The last years of the Roaring ’20s marked an economic peak that would not soon be seen again. In B.C. in 1929, the average annual income hit $600; four years later it had dropped all the way down to $353.
Similarly, the gross value of manufactured products in B.C. in the year of the crash was $273.7 million; four years later it was about half that figure, $140.5 million. And whereas the value of construction contracts in the province in 1929 totaled $54.4 million; the comparable figure in 1932 was one-sixth as much, a mere $8.6 million.
Thousands upon thousands of people lost their jobs. Among trade union members in B.C., the unemployment rate skyrocketed from a minuscule 2.6 per cent in June 1929, to a nearly-unbelievable 26 per cent in December 1932.
Already shaky, the provincial government’s finances underwent a dramatic deterioration. Revenues collapsed, the fiscal deficits grew even larger, and the debt soared ever higher.
And in a shocking development, William C. Shelly, the province’s business-oriented finance minister and one of B.C.’s wealthiest individuals, lost nearly everything he owned.”
==========================================================
ALSO
” Echoes of Herbert Hoover”
Throughout the budget speech, Shelly called for “business principles” to be adopted by the government. And he concluded his address with the observation that “it is in my considered opinion the whole country is yearning for less political strife and more business methods applied to governmental operations.”
Such a view was not then unique to Shelly nor to British Columbia. Twelve days later, a newly-elected U.S. president with a similar philosophy was sworn into office.
“The election has again confirmed the determination of the American people,” said Herbert Hoover on March 4, 1929 in his inaugural address, “that regulation of private enterprise and not government ownership or operation is the course rightly to be pursued….”
Andrew Mellon, Hoover’s treasury secretary — a Pittsburgh banker and one of the richest men in the United States — later put it even more succinctly: “The government is just a business, and can and should be run on business principles.”
November 26th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Real estate prices are always “sticky” when they are going down. People will do anything and everything possible to not sell at a loss… even if that loss is only a paper loss from what the owner “believes” his/her property is worth.
And so prices have not fallen all that much just yet. But don’t confuse the modest declines in real estate prices that we have seen to-date in Vancouver with any kind of “stability” in the overall market. The pressure is rising for prices to literally collapse!
The pressure is coming from both sides of the real estate game…
On the one side, buyers have clearly gone on strike. Anyone with even half a brain will not buy in this market.
and,
On the other side, supply is building at a massive rate as condo’s from the outrageously frothy pre-sales of the past couple of years are completing now and over the next twenty months or so.
Consider that water dripping on a stone will eventually wear a hole through the rock. In a similar slow and methodical fashion, the pressure will continue to build on Vancouver’s real estate market… at some point some of the sellers will be forced to sell (divorces, margin calls, bankruptcies, estate sales… just to name a few will cause some sellers to dump their properties at whatever the market will bear) and the damn will burst and yesterday’s prices will seem like pure fiction.
Fundamentally, Vancouver’s real estate is over-valued because prices are massively out of line from rents. That situation couldn’t have persisted for the long term even in the absence of the global financial turmoil that we are now seeing.
(By the way, the “buyers strike” in the Vancouver real estate market is basically the same effect that is currently causing global deflation… buyers are on-strike all over the planet… read the financial news, we are seeing inventories of automobiles rising, copper, coal and oil supplies are rising as well, and same store sales at virtually every retailer other than Walmart are falling too. All of these apparently disparate industries are being affected by the same thing… a lack of consumer confidence.)
November 26th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Anyone that uses the insult ‘dumhead’ is someone I’m glad I don’t share an opinion with. Whats with the idiot that wants to impersonate me? Are you 14? Can’t you just have a civilized debate?
November 26th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Specuvestors, if you think rationally for a moment, you have to CUT PRICE AND SELL ASAP before the layoffs come in droves and prices go DOWN, DOWN, and DOWN.
How many Specuvestors do you think read bearish RE blogs like this one? “Hard to get someone to understand when their investment income depends on them not understanding it”
Although, maybe if a few more DID read these blogs, we wouldn’t be in quite the mess we are now….
November 26th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
“… There really only is a $10,000 drop in Detached houses since the high of November 2007.”
Those are weasel words. The market high wasn’t in November 2007, prices were still rising. Paulb pointed out above losses from the market ‘high’ is actually $70k, that’s what he and any other honest realtor will tell you.
The alarming thing is the rapid decline in prices and the way that the price drops are accelerating combined with the absolute dearth of buyers.
How anyone can look at whats happening in the US housing market, the global and local economy and our complete lack of fundamentals in real estate and say “prices could stay the same or prices could climb again” is either clueless or desperate to make a sale. Based on those comments I would not use that realtor. There are many others in Vancouver that will be more honest with you.
November 26th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
“If you are getting advise from other people, friends, colleges, ect., please make sure they know what they are talking about.”
*****
Advice. Your realtor is functionally illiterate. Trust not his words.
November 26th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
“The benchmark price of a detached home has dropped from 765k in March 08 to 695k in Oct. So a 70k drop in 7-8 months.”
My GF lives around Parker and Gilmore, there are two new built homes for sale 2 blocks east of Gilmore, and they actually have “REDUCED BY $70,000″ on the for sale sign.
They have had several open houses, not takers.
November 26th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
VantoVan
The benchmark price of a detached home has dropped from 765k in March 08 to 695k in Oct. So a 70k drop in 7-8 months.
November 26th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
“When you encourage him” to write more articles” and for his “expert opinion” he doesn’t know you are just teasing him.”
Gordo, actually I honestly encourage him. His article was well written and reasoned, if a little late.
November 26th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
“Yes, the economy is going through some tough times, but like it always does it will turn around. Patience in a virtue, running around in a panic doesn’t accomplish anything.”
Most economists agree that the United States is in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and that it has already fallen into a severe recession that is likely to be one of the deepest in decades.
November 26th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
I have been saying for some time now that I am seeing a much different picture than the bears here and the press and the naysayers. The economy in Vancouver is on fire and so is the market for condos. VanToVan you should heed the advice of your Realtor since he is a professional.
November 26th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
pope
There’s some wonkyness with the “submit comment” button in Firefox 3.0.4
November 26th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
I’ve been in contact with a potential realtor for next year. Naturally I needed to sound him out on how he feels about lowball offers. Here is some of his response:
Real Estate news is often misinterpreted by the public. For example when you are told the market is down, that may not be prices are down that may mean sales volume is down. … This decrease in sales volume has created lots of hype but many people are misinterpreting it.
… There really only is a $10,000 drop in Detached houses since the high of November 2007.
The prices could continue to go down or that could change and prices could stay the same or prices could climb again. We recovered quickly in the spring market of 2001 after the 2000 election of Bush in the states. The same thing might happen again.
…
If you are getting advise from other people, friends, colleges, ect., please make sure they know what they are talking about. Ask them for proof, I can always show you proof to back up what I am saying.
November 26th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
jesse
“I picture a flipper sitting cross-legged on the floor of his condo meditating as the bailiffs come in to repossess.”
You watch too much American TV. Sheriffs do that job here.
November 26th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
dosh, you are a very dumb little boy.
The more stupid things you say, the more proof you are providing that you are really feeble minded and the more likely your previous stupid comments are to be re posted
November 26th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Jesse:
I am disappointed in you. I do realize others have made fun of Aaron, but your prank is the most heartless of all.
When you encourage him” to write more articles” and for his “expert opinion” he doesn’t know you are just teasing him.
Shame on you meanie
November 26th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
“Patience in a virtue, running around in a panic doesn’t accomplish anything.”
I picture a flipper sitting cross-legged on the floor of his condo meditating as the bailiffs come in to repossess.
The next two years are going to be a buffalo jump. No panic required until you’re over the cliff and reality slaps you in the face. Until then, aaaauuummmmmmmm.
November 26th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Dosh, perhaps we should all just take “Happy Pills”, like the Sun suggested this weekend. Or, for a more permanent “attitude adjustment”, get lobotomies…
Oh wait, then they’d have to fund the health system to provide them…
November 26th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
For all of the talk about Vancouver downtown RE dropping, there’s nothing dropping into my price range. You can throw out stats, but I’m on the market, and prices aren’t dropping in the low range DT. Maybe in Burnaby, Richmond and NW, but not DT, not yet.
November 26th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Yes, the economy is going through some tough times, but like it always does it will turn around. Patience in a virtue, running around in a panic doesn’t accomplish anything.
November 26th, 2008 at 11:53 am
“The problem with that? Overbuilding leading to saturation, creating unsustainability. “
The warning bells should have been that most of the economic gains were wrought with debt. When debt disappears there’s no mo money, plus the bag holders — mostly locals — need to pay their debts back to the lenders who mostly located out of province. Normally this would be fine and dandy if the building produced sustainable increased revenues but this is definitely NOT the case since incomes and rents have barely budged as a result. That is a huge future drain on BC’s GDP.
November 26th, 2008 at 11:46 am
BC and Vancouver are two different things. Yes they are the both the part of the best place on earth but Vancouver is like a whole different area of the best place on earth. There was never forestry jobs in Vancouver like there were in BC. Construction in Vancouver remains strong. Trucks and SUVs are still being bought. Condos are still being built. Homes are still selling.
The rest of BC is in trouble yes but Vancouver is different because of :
the new mayor’s homeless elimination program
1) the Olympics
2) rich asians
3) the lack of land
4) the proximity of the ocean
5) the port
6) the cruise ships
7) the rich tourists
9) the safe injection site
10) THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH BABY!
November 26th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Seattle has been declining, down almost 10% yoy. Looking like things are gaining downward momentum there. Have a read:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/.....ource=mypi
November 26th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Again, forestry is our main industry in BC and has been getting hammered for over a year. Real estate/construction boomed and made up for the shortfall. The problem with that? Overbuilding leading to saturation, creating unsustainability.
Now we’ll watch as projects complete and the job losses mount. This is still just the very tip of the iceberg.
November 26th, 2008 at 10:44 am
That many Vancouverites still cling to the hope that we will quickly recover from this housing downturn speaks volumes to the incredible power of Denial. We had bad metrics while our economy was good, now that the economic klaxons are sounding all across the country real estate in Vancouver is looking like poison.
I know only one person who bought Vancouver real estate in 2008 (compared to almost 20 in 2007) and they bought a condo for 25% off the comparable sale from last summer.. And you know what? They still aren’t sure if they want to remove subjects and go through with the sale, and who can blame them?
Look at our economic outlook and then look to our nearest neighbor whose house prices have been sliding for two years and are only predicted to get worse.
Amateur ‘investors’ and speculators are discovering there’s no such thing as perpetual motion, in physics or economics.
November 26th, 2008 at 10:30 am
“other than”=”along with”
November 26th, 2008 at 10:29 am
By the way, other than Surrey, New West is one of the only School Districts with increasing enrollment. It was one of the last places young families could buy a house.
November 26th, 2008 at 10:24 am
So much for government jobs being a safe haven:
http://tinyurl.com/5b7ek2
Local union representatives are meeting with New Westminster School District administrators today to discuss the serious budget shortfall the district is facing this year.
Local Canadian Union of Public Employees president Marcel Marsolais said they are concerned about layoffs. He said the district is in worse shape than predicted. He couldn’t go into detail because he hadn’t met with the district at press time, but he said “it doesn’t sound good.”
November 26th, 2008 at 10:13 am
This is the point I’ve been hammering across in the RT forums. When there are mass layoffs in the economy due to the recession, there will be an increase in foreclosures and many jobless speculators won’t be able to make their mortgage payments.
The final nail in the coffin for our real estate market will be the layoffs that follow the recession. If you think the real estate market is bad now, wait until the layoffs start rolling. At that point, Vancouver will be in an unprecedented free fall, and we could possibly see REBGV supply push 30,000 units.
Specuvestors, if you think rationally for a moment, you have to CUT PRICE AND SELL ASAP before the layoffs come in droves and prices go DOWN, DOWN, and DOWN.
November 26th, 2008 at 10:12 am
I’m no 1
