Welcome!
VancouverPeak.com- admin replied to the forum topic Sandbox. in the group Housing Data
- admin posted an update:
- jesse and Makaya are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic Sandbox. in the group Housing Data
- jesse posted an update: CMHC starts, completions and under construction in Vancouver […]
- The Ant started the forum topic BC Population Growth in the group Housing Data
- jesse and The Ant are now friends
- jesse and wreckonomics are now friends
- wreckonomics posted an update: New Year, New HPI. ”Selection Broadens and Demand Eases to […]
- Best place on meth and admin are now friends
Wordpress theme by Abhishek Tripathi of Mediawick Digital Solutions
November 4th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
As if a Pt Grey SFH homeowner would be trolling a “Vancouver Condo” blog at the onset of what will be the largest meltdown yet (with condos being the hardest hit, worse than Vegas).
What is bothering you “Pandora” is it the $150,000 that you are already down on paper or the fact you won’t be able to sell your house for more than you paid in 2005?
November 4th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
What blew me away was the fact that I knew a hell of a lot more than he did about HIS OWN PROFESSION!
All too common. They know more about who’s winning on Dancing With the Stars than the state of the market.
November 4th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Hey Pandora, sounds like a nice place you’ve got there. If you like it and can pay the bills why do you care what other people think? I think most of the complaints on this site are about people believing that there’s something magically different about Vancouver and you should buy property because it only goes up.
As you say, after that run-up a correction was inevitable, and there’s a lot of frustration here about marketers trying first trying to hype it as ‘impossible’ and now that its crashing trying to sell it as a buying oppourtunity.
Personally I believe the CUCBC report – we’re going to see at least two more years of price declines, but that won’t stop the sales people from calling bottom all the way down.
Enjoy your house, if you didn’t buy based on the belief that it would only increase in value, you’re comfortable there and you can afford the bills than congratulations!
November 4th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Hi Arit,
Does everyone have to do this to participate?
Anyway, in Vancouver, just the one. Point Grey 2005 – probably paid over the odds as it went to sealed bids but a unique position with great views and we will keep in the family as long as we can.
So if the value drops below what we bought it for, but we are happy in the house and have no intention of moving, are we also muppets for drinking the juice?
Best,
P
November 4th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Pandora ” Chandler” maybe?
C’mon Pandora, “open” up, ( though Pandora historically is an ominous foreshadowing )
November 4th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Pandora,
Hello,
I would like to give you a detailed answer to your question, but proper disclosure should be handled first. Please tell us, for the sake of understanding where you are coming from, how many houses do you own.
Best regards,
arit
November 4th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
decling
get off!
November 4th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Seems like there are about a dozen of you all talking to yourselves so hope there is room for one more.
You ladies and gentlemen really get off on all this don’t you?
House prices are decling after having increased. You claim to have correctly predicted the inevitable correction.
Not sure why you need to keep patting yourselves on the back for it but you might think about getting over yourselves.
November 4th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
The cover story of the Business section in today’s Vancouver Sun has a full colour graphic of the decline in real estate prices by area for the entire Lower Mainland.
A couple particularly dramatic declines are as follows (these are all percentages for SFH’s):
West Vancouver -21.6% (can you say “precipitous?”)
Port Moody -23.8% (that’s would have consumed just about any size of down-payment)
and those make Vancouver West’s -9.6% look like a mild dip.
Suddenly the real estate market in Vancouver is resembling a Wall Street Investment Bank at least in so far as investment stability is concerned.
November 4th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
I just went through the Case-Shiller data. There are only TWO occurrences of a -4.8% (or greater) drop in the US in the last 20 years. February 2008 in San Francisco had a -5.04% drop, and Las Vegas in January 2008 had a -5.1% drop.
Vancouver’s in the big time now!
November 4th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Holy crap. The next person I hear say “we won’t have a US style meltdown in Canada” gets this little statistic in their face:
I just went through the Case-Shiller data. There are only TWO occurrences of a -4.8% (or greater) drop in the US in the last 20 years. February 2008 in San Francisco had a -5.04% drop, and Las Vegas in January 2008 had a -5.1% drop.
Vancouver’s in the big time now!
November 4th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Re Realtors:
(and yes,…with apologies to those Realtors that do act like true ethical professionals)
You take the course, you buy the suit, you lease the fancy car, hang the shingle, look for victims err…”clients” (ie Purchasers or Vendors ).
In someway, are they not much different than side show promoters at the Circus…” step right up, pay your money take your chances ” .
The spin has to be positive and upbeat…or else they legally obligate themselves to far more disclosure. Read the ads and the creativity they require to make a potential drug den look like the Taj Mahal .
They have access to the MLS, the rest of us don’t.
They also have professional “insurance” , errors and ommissions, if things go bad….as opposed to the more risky “For Sale By Owners” .
I agree, many parties probably know more than the realtor… but the vast majority of others obviously doesn’t and are often less sophisticated than the realtor and thus feel beholden to the realtor.
I think a realtor’s role and services is different to each of us , but the realtor’s services can be played to your advantage if you approach the given deal (and them) properly.
A smart RE investor will simply do their own homework, not rely on what the Realtor may “promote”, and only use the Realtor for what the smart investor cannot do themselves. A Realtor has a role in the RE scheme of things, but never defer to them or put them up on pedestal.
November 4th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Ughh, who used my name in #36? FYI, I didn’t make that post about satv in #36 (even though I think satv is an idiot).
November 4th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
“Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down”.-We will never buy on low.”
Umm, you can buy high as much as you want krrish.
The smart people, who you’ve been taunting, will wait and buy at 50% off.
November 4th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Nobody! is just satv talking his usual gibberish that only he can understand.
why don’t you post in your own language and someone can translate it? What’s that there is no language called idiot?
November 4th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Nobody!!!!! Says,
Yes, you’re right I clearly wasn’t paying attention… my bad!
Resume normal programming.
November 4th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Good reading there Pope. Don Lapre – I couldn’t agree with you more.
I had the opportunity to discuss the market with a realtor who was advising a mutual friend on how the market will stabilize over the next couple while and then reignite sometime after. I couldn’t bite my tongue any longer. I argued the points giving hard facts, numbers, discussing affordability, loose lending, credit crunch, economic recession, glut, removal of products etc… What blew me away was the fact that I knew a hell of a lot more than he did about HIS OWN PROFESSION! Imagine knowing more than the surgeon who is about to operate on you! It’s mind boggling how little some of these realtors know! CarlK and Paul B, you guys are exceptions, not talking about you. Even Chipman, who I disagree with for the most part, at least knows something about how the market operates.
I keep hearing people say “it’s a cycle” but they don’t understand the fundamentals that are involved in creating the cycle.
There were more “points” he raised, that you have all heard a million times before. Mostly rah, rah pumper BS. Sounded more like someone in denial. I just think that people should know SOMETHING about their chosen profession! We need more Paul B’s in this world.
November 4th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Dave Watt, the Greater Vancouver board’s president, said sales are not keeping pace with B.C.’s current economic conditions with low unemployment and stable interest rates.
Dave Watt is another guy who hasn’t been paying attention. When you have an economy built on a housing bubble, housing tanks first – then the overall economy follows.
P.S. John, that joke is getting old.
November 4th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Building an entire economy on real estate is the definition of wise fiscal prudence. Financial systems collapse but homes and towers rarely if ever do so. That’s proof right there that real estate quite literally never goes down.
November 4th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
I personally believe the prices in vancouver were all a hype, how many houses actually sold at the peak for 760K lets have some real numbers. All this house price hype in vancouver is paper money
November 4th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
I was listening to Sports radio yesterday and they were talking about ” Obama as President ” , U.S. Pro Sports, and wealth distribution.
One NFL owner has apparently already divested themselves of their ownership in their NFL team due to fears of an Obama victory . Other pro sports teams are concerned re: the luxury boxes and if their clientele will get hit.
The NFL apparently secured a $2 Billion Loan recently to assist weaker NFL markets. Previously Pro -Obama professional athletes are also having 2nd thoughts.
All pro-active moves by the Big Boys based on current predictions.
As the world turns…
November 4th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
“Not only do I disagree with the bogus author’s comments,”
Author’s name is available it says “Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down” use your eyes buddy.
“I am embarassed to have the poor grammar attributed to me.”
Anyway,now you know what’s going on lets move forward…..
“Vancouverites need only look to the fundamentals for guidance: a rental crisis, a shortage of housing supply on the market, and the 2010 Olympics just around the corner.We are a real estate town — real estate is a sport,You go to Calgary and it’s oil and gas. You go to Toronto, it’s business. In Seattle, it’s technology. We’re real estate … And the world likes us. The world likes to live in Vancouver.Nobody knows better than rennie,Nobody!!!!!.
November 4th, 2008 at 11:35 am
My prediction, based on observations of previous changes in government and the fact that Paul Volker is one of Obama’s economic advisors:
Obama will get into office, then declare that the Bush admin cooked the books and the economy is in far worse shape than reported. Then he’ll tighten things up rather than loosing the purse strings, and the Fed & Treasury will be told to stop propping up this bubble and let the market take care of itself. That way, the new admin can have a quick, deep recession that will hopefully be well over by the end of their 4-yr term, when Obama will claim victory over the recession and campaign for re-election on that basis.
New admins like to have their pain up front, so everything’s all gravy for the next election.
November 4th, 2008 at 11:28 am
I didn’t write post #21 but I did write post #22
there may be a bug in the system…
“Crash”
November 4th, 2008 at 11:20 am
I did not write post #5 above… someone else is using my pen name.
Not only do I disagree with the bogus author’s comments, I am embarassed to have the poor grammar attributed to me.
Hey Pope, is there a way of stopping someone from fraudulently posting under another person’s handle?
MickeyFinn
November 4th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Well, let’s see what happens re: the US elections after tonite and how the results will transcend borders .
This Obama wave is getting a bit silly. ( I will go on the assumption that Obama will win, ….but ya never know ).
I think the Americans and Obama are creating another ” bubble ” , one of unrealistic hopes and expectations.
Given the housing bubble was ultimately used and abused to create and promote a false economy, what fix has Obama actually got ?
I read that McCain’s accusations of Obama’s wealth distribution have fallen flat, that Americans actually do want wealth distribution. How do you distribute wealth? Quickest way is via re-visiitng taxation and create subsidies. They say Obama will be under a lot of pressure to move quickly with his promises and/or live up to people’s expectations. However “Haste- makes -Waste” comes to mind.
In the end,….I think Obama will be forced into a lot of quickie fixes and protectionism -based policies, given the housing -bubble economic engine burst, and other economic engines are tanking(ie Auto industry). Hence it appears the US will end up a quasi- socialist state, at least in the short term. This will ripple globally, and affect us here in our own lotus – land. Does this create (i) stability or (ii) chaos in either the short term of long term ? Personally I don’t have a comfortable feeling re Obama, a nice guy per se, but I think he is in waaaay over his head .
PS: Why do I think of “Pierre Trudeau meets Glen Clark “when I think “Obama” ?
God HELP America !!!
November 4th, 2008 at 10:51 am
C’mon, Vancouver is a Global City. How can this be happening?
Oh, wait. We never made the top 60. Not like TO at #10.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:39 am
I know of only one other couple besides myself and my wife who are waiting for a substantial price decline.
most of the anecdotal info i get is:
there are very few buyers
most not even bothering to look at RE…..
open houses? that is so last year!
November 4th, 2008 at 10:22 am
I see one of the lastest spins that Tsur Somerville is peddling is that buyers are “waiting out the price declines”. My question is: how many blog viewers know anybody in the general population who are waiting for prices to drop before buying R/E? In my fairly wide aquaintance circle I know of only one other couple besides myself and my wife who are waiting for a substantial price decline.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:10 am
“Just the bear facts:
1) Any bear who didn’t buy real estate and has been living in a moldy basement for 5 years buying stocks is now underwater”
Well hopefully the rest of the bears having been shorting bank stocks and buying bear ETFs. Too bad you can’t short RE.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:06 am
When the spousal unit and I moved back here after a two year exile in the Big Smoke in April, her extended family were all over us. I swear to god they had Ozzie Jurrock coasters and “I like Tsur” hats.
Strangely, the conversation has turned to Obama, the Canucks, and the shape of that cloud that just drifted by…
and I’m thinking of that 50K I’d be out if it weren’t for the concrete arguments of many of the posters here that kept me secure in my resolve.
virtual beers on me.
http://www.beermonthclub.com/sendavirtualbeer.asp
November 4th, 2008 at 9:43 am
John, the detached benchmark dropped 4.2% from last month. It dropped 30K!
CRAAAAASSHHHHHHH!
November 4th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Just the bear facts:
1) Any bear who didn’t buy real estate and has been living in a moldy basement for 5 years buying stocks is now underwater
2) Vancouver real estate investors like me have made a killing and love SUVs and fine women and good beer and premium brand smokes
3) Rich asians flock to Vancouver due to the beautiful weather and beautiful real estate
4) SUVs, RVs, Boats are the next big boom. Everyone is going to want to buy these things and more condos in Vancouver
5) Living in a condo downtown Vancouver is the dream of every person in Vancouver
November 4th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Once the election is over and the focus returns to the global recession, the price declines will likely gain momentum. Lowering interest rates, which are already very low, will not stimulate purchasing just as it didn’t in Japan in the early 90s. We are in for a severe recession and very likely a period of price declines in all asset classes. The severe recession in construction and real estate, huge segements of our economy, is just beginning. The same is true of the correction in our natural resource sector. Mr. Watt does not seem to have a grasp our current economic conditions. The market is foward looking and can see what is coming. It’s not going to be pretty for the economy generally and especially for those who purchased at inflated prices over the last 3 to 5 years.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:09 am
4% in one month. Phew! 10% in 5 months. Phew! As freako said, this is freefall.
At some point, a comparison should be made to San Diego, Inland Empire, Miami, Phoenix etc. in terms of the rate of decrease. I believe Mohican added Vancouver to a Case Shiller chart of monthly declines of US bubble markets and Vancouver’s rate of decline exceeded those bubble markets.
We’ll be seeing 40% drops by the end of 2010.
November 4th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Don Lapre #3
…. its called “denial”
November 4th, 2008 at 7:48 am
Maybe they’ll release their report the moment the election results come in.
…and tomorrow after the election
they will wake up and see that everything is still ugly, there is no escape… only one direction…DOWN!
November 4th, 2008 at 3:06 am
I bet they are are feeling some reprieve the US presidential election will probably out-MSM them.
Well they’d better be hoping for something to top that a month from now, because the November numbers are going to be even uglier.
November 4th, 2008 at 2:31 am
“Somewhere in Vancouver tonight a room full of real estate pundits are desperately trying to figure-out how to put a positive spin on undeniably ugly October sales and listing data. ”
I bet they are are feeling some reprieve the US presidential election will probably out-MSM them. Maybe they’ll release their report the moment the election results come in.
The drop this month is starting to prove Wolf at ML was wrong about tracking the US, we aren’t, Vancouver is looking much worse so far.
November 4th, 2008 at 2:16 am
Check out the same old, same old, in the comments section of the Sun story.
Have to laugh at some of you cheering for a crash. A huge part of the money flowing in Vancouver is the real estate/construction business, so guess what, it goes down so does your lot in life. People with real estate, even if it does drop, will be relative to you loosing your job or if you do keep it at a much lower wage
Apparently this poster thinks that owning a house makes you immune to losing your job.
November 4th, 2008 at 1:24 am
May detached benchmark: $771,250
June detached benchmark: $765,654
July detached benchmark: $753,165
August detached benchmark: $737,985
September detached benchmark: $726,331
October detached benchmark: $695,962
What goes up, must come down!
November 4th, 2008 at 1:23 am
“Dave Watt, the Greater Vancouver board’s president, said sales are not keeping pace with B.C.’s current economic conditions with low unemployment and stable interest rates.”
Gee, I wonder why that is…..
November 4th, 2008 at 12:59 am
How about the arrow with the month and year?
November 4th, 2008 at 12:48 am
you mean this, holgs?
It’s done with Royal-lepage quarterly data, so you’ll have to wait until January to see the Q3 and Q4 update. And it will be sweet!
Of course, as far as I can tell, they haven’t updated for Q3 yet, which is a bit odd . . .
November 4th, 2008 at 12:39 am
Now we need an update of VHB’s famous trademark graph, with this “peak” at the very top of it…
November 4th, 2008 at 12:36 am
MickeyFinn,
I can put that spin in few second here is how it works!
Do you know? when prices were going up in 2007 more than 50,000 buyers jumped into market to buy (spin),When prices start falling after may 2008(peak)Only some of 4,500 people took advantage of falling prices,What does that mean?
It’s mean nobody like to catch the falling knife!but what will happen if you go to catch the falling knife? prices will go UP then what?it will go more UP even if the prices are 25% UP.
Well slow sales and few ‘smart buyers’ that was the story, now lots of sellers found it funny that no buyers seems to taking advantage of falling price so they(sellers) have decided to pull off their listing from the market due to low Interest Rates,Increased Rents,and Canada,Usa exchange rates in results:listings are down to 17,000 from it’s peak 21,000 historical resale Inventory.
In few weeks market could fell into sellers hand then what? every body love to buy because some buyers other than “smart buyer” love to buy on high why is that?because they know it very well that “Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down”.-We will never buy on low.
November 4th, 2008 at 12:01 am
1. 4.2% monthly decline. That is HUGE. This is now a freefall.
2. The liquidity crisis is not yet reflected in these numbers, as sales are only booked once subjects come off. November will be VERY interesting.
3. We have 14+ months of inventory.
I expect listings to fall quite a bit, but the way sales are slumping, MOI may get even worse. By spring it may climb higher again.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:56 pm
I would still have to say that the majority of people I encounter honestly believe that this is simply a minor blip and the house price rocketship will re-launch just around the bend. I can debate until I’m blue in the face about fundamentals, myths, etc, but questioning the real estate game in Vancouver is still tantamount to blasphemy.
The majority of people will be blindsided by this and are still intoxicated by the past few years of appreciation.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:46 pm
The really amazing thing is that all the recession/depression doom and gloom did’nt make the headlines until almost half way through the month, and considering that it takes even longer to be absorbed by the great unwashed, I would say that the real panic has’nt even started yet. November price drops will make the Oct drop of 4.2% look like kids stuff.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Somewhere in Vancouver tonight a room full of real estate pundits are desperately trying to figure-out how to put a positive spin on undeniably ugly October sales and listing data.