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November 5th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Bowntown’s Helper Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
…
In 1981,1991 Someone like you must have thought the way you are thinking right now,I wish you are right on your decision while those who never been right since than are gone.
Dude… Now I’m going to explain to you why you get negative votes… You only wrote one sentence (should have been two, I think) and it is completely incomprehensible!
in⋅com⋅pre⋅hen⋅si⋅ble
[in-kom-pri-hen-suh-buhl, in-kom-]
–adjective
1. impossible to understand or comprehend; unintelligible.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Here’s some more bear facts to wake you up :
1) Obama’s hope and change will lead to a wave of increased economic activity around the world. Already beer sales in NYC overnight were off the charts. The party in San Fransisco still continues. There will surely be hundreds of thousands of new children born out of wedlock 9 months from now.
2) Back in Indonesia, Obama supporters are going to just get richer and want to come to Vancouver to be closer to “the one”
3) Kenyans will surely want to immitate Vancouver real estate and with all the wealth being spread around by the one they will move out of the huts and into Vancouver condos.
4) I almost cried last night watching the speech in my SUV while driving to the McDonalds drive through. The staff at the McDonalds were all cheering for the coming hope and change.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
browntown what do you do for a living?
November 5th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
1) a lack of consumer confidence:
Stand for nothing because responsible agencies are greedy,There is lack of comunication and difference of opinion between media,board,and economists that’s why consumers are confused.home prices does not need support to stand at peak but board need sales volume to keep their jobs safe so some people intentionally like to kill the confidence like sold out forces,bears blogers opposition parties etc.
2) a multi-year run-up in prices:
If the notion was supported once there is no need to worry because when bag of greed goes down greedy people return back to eat the left over fishes.
3) a lack of affordability:
while lack of consumer confidence is firm at number 1. there is no need for number 3.which is lack of affordability because market has been tested before and passed on that issue.still affordability has improved with discounts,low gas prices,and lower interest rates.
4) a tidal wave of inventory on the way (their words):
Then further level shouldn’t back up like the way it fall from 21,500 something.
number of new homes has increased that’s why around 20k inventory is new normal numbers only sales are trailing, inventory is being pulled back without any fear that’s why it’s going back and forth but with new listing it comes back near the same spot.
5) and falling prices:
Prices are not falling only buyers are on strike,Imagine anywork place productivity level before and after strike and between strike.so when ever buyers will return back on full stream prices will go more than previous height.
November 5th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
MickeyFinn, All
You guys need to remember something important regarding the media.
We were mad at the MSM for not reporting the bubble while inflating, and we were right (they needed the revenue from the RE sector).
But, as we saw in the US for the past two years, the MSM DOES begin reporting, with all force, at the peak. We got so used to ‘bubble ignored by media’, that now, when the paradigm shifts, we find it strange that the MSM is reporting it.
So, to summarize: The media, who was AGAINST us for the past 5 years, is on OUR side from now on. C’mon, it makes sense, nothing sells better than bad news and sex.
Best regards,
arit
November 5th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
pope. i enjoy your informative website. but the bitterness and hatred is getting too much with your posters. taking pleasure in other people’s pain makes one a loser. bear or bull. have some class. don’t be a skull. be a heart.
Dude… DUDE!!!
I’m going to explain to you why you are getting a very negative vote count on your post.
You’re probably one of the idiots who have been bragging to all of us “basement dwelling jealous bitter renters” over the last few years about how much money you were making on your “investment” and how if we were too stupid to buy a house then we should never be able to own one.
If you weren’t that guy, then I apologize, but everyone who ranks your post down is projecting on you the anger towards all the people in our lives who have called us idiots and jealous bitter renters just because we felt (rightfully) that unaffordable housing was bad for society, and decided to live frugal lives with savings in the bank, waiting for the return of 20% down payments (now 50%, in some areas of the US, BTW.)
Speculators DESERVE to lose everything, just as they did in the dotcom bubble, the commodities bubble, the tulip bubble, the world poker championship, and countless other gambling opportunities in this wold.
Naive couples with kids in many cases were the victims of evil REALTORS(c) but for the most part were also victims of their own GREED, and it is impossible to feel sorry for someone who bought a house just because they thought its price would go up forever (the definition of speculation.)
An INVESTMENT house should return positive cash flow every month, regardless of its price. If it doesn’t do that, then it’s not an investment.
A house is a place to live, NOT an investment. Done. Rant off.
November 5th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
1) a lack of consumer confidence
2) a multi-year run-up in prices
3) a lack of affordability
4) a tidal wave of inventory on the way (their words)
5) and falling prices
November 5th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
“As for myself, I believe that paying more money than something is worth to support someone else is a particularly idiotic form of self-taxation.”
In 1981,1991 Someone like you must have thought the way you are thinking right now,I wish you are right on your decision while those who never been right since than are gone.
November 5th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
BNN, the Business News Network, just did a piece on the “trouble” with real estate in Canada. It was somewhat Toronto-centric but they did talk about Vancouver and they certainly had the details right.
They noted all of the following factors as having negative implications for prices and they noted that there is no sign of these factors going away:
1) a lack of consumer confidence
2) a multi-year run-up in prices
3) a lack of affordability
4) a tidal wave of inventory on the way (their words)
5) and falling prices
The last point, falling prices, was an interesting factor to cite but essentially what the speaker pointed out was that falling prices beget falling prices because of the negative impact on consumer confidence etc.
When the guy discussed high-priced markets (read: Vancouver) he mentioned the possibility of prices “gapping down.”
Gapping down: I like the sounds of that.
November 5th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
“Even the one’s who have differing opinions than the majority. For me, it’s always good to hear opposing views to help keep a proper perspective.”
Yeah we are glad to be part of it and love to see arrow down regardless even if by mistake majority of poster thumbs down on their future!
“I wonder how that guy who gave up and bought is doing now”
The most shouted example of cbc couple on this blogs are still doing fine they had pay off by one year plus size of their down payment and $100,000 gain would be enough to save them.
November 5th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
That’s why your sister and her team lost their entire real estate bussiness [sic] income
Hey Jimtan, why don’t you use your proper nickname instead of hiding behind a pseudonym. And if you’re so worried about her, you help her out. Go buy some houses.
As for myself, I believe that paying more money than something is worth to support someone else is a particularly idiotic form of self-taxation.
And my job is safe in any economy, so go peddle crazy somewhere else. I’m done talking to you.
November 5th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
“living a block from home ”
I meant a block from work.
we knew what you meant….
you were just having a krisssh2 moment
November 5th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
And here I was, ready to be all superior with bdk: “That’s nothin’! I live ZERO blocks from home, so NYAH!” Ah well…
So it looks like the townhouse market in West Van got REALLY bad in October…they sold -1 houses. Does that mean someone returned one or something? “Sorry, I’m returning this house; it makes my butt look big.”
November 5th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
“living a block from home ”
I meant a block from work.
November 5th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
I second what many regulars on here are saying in response to Pandora. If it weren’t for this blog and a few other sites, I would have felt completely alone in my thinking that this “inevitable crash” was coming.
What Pandora might be missing is the amount of pressure that was put on people like me, to go out and buy. The last few years were filled with pressure and rhetoric. I remember someone here, who late last year I believe, posted about how he was giving up. He said that he had waited long enough, can’t see prices go down, and he was biting the bullet and buying. The pressure had finally gotten the better of him. It hasn’t been easy to stick to our guns when the numbers were so out of touch with fundamentals. This group of people on here, helped me keep perspective amidst all the BS that was out there.
So, regardless of what Pandora thinks, thank you to all who posted their thoughts on here. Keep it up! Even the one’s who have differing opinions than the majority. For me, it’s always good to hear opposing views to help keep a proper perspective.
I wonder how that guy who gave up and bought is doing now.
November 5th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
I’ll be a skull if I want to.
I have co workers who look down at me for living a block from home while they pay twice as much and commute 1.5 hours to Cloverdale.
Now they pay twice as much and lose another couple thousand in equity.
This was foreseable by anyone who had a brain and yet when I tried to discuss it they rolled their eyes and shook their heads. It’s not my fault they are sad now. They made their bed and they can live with it. I would not dare bring up real estate in public which is why anonymous blogs are good (especially if you happen to work in the real estate industry).
If the recent trollers are really sincere then go to one of the pumper real estate sites, stop reading the news or listening to the radio and hide under your bed while repeating “real estate always goes up I am a mini Donald Trump, rich asians, the olympics!”
November 5th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Regarding November, I suspect it’s going to be pretty bad for house prices. As sluggo pointed out, most of October happened before the Canadian recession doom and gloom news hit and there’s a delay effect for sales to show up in the stats. Is there anyone out there buying right now?
November 5th, 2008 at 11:28 am
“Be a skull?” Are we all 13 now?
November 5th, 2008 at 11:21 am
pope. i enjoy your informative website. but the bitterness and hatred is getting too much with your posters. taking pleasure in other people’s pain makes one a loser. bear or bull. have some class. don’t be a skull. be a heart.
November 5th, 2008 at 11:13 am
just waiting to see the small dot on the November plot on the above graph, betting 100:1 that it will be below the october dot
November 5th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Re: Pandora et al.
Every time I see a post like Pandora’s I think “there’s another realtor out of work”. How many more realtors/mortgage brokers/developers will pull their heads from their asses and troll the blogs castigating the “bears” for their superior understanding of RE fundamentals? I think the comments will become more shrill and caustic as this train wreck unfolds just like the US bubble blogs two years ago.
November 5th, 2008 at 10:52 am
“We thought about it, then decided against it.”
That’s why your sister and her team lost their entire real estate bussiness income,if there was 30k disscount on SFH you did not buy but your sister and her team income loss is =$250.000 wha wha she had never seen brother like betamax.
Suggestion:If you hide your money you will lose your job.
November 5th, 2008 at 8:08 am
TO: One of many:
Your story is one I am sure reflects the experiences and sentiments of many. However, what goes around comes around, and perhaps you may luck out and be in a better position now than when you first pursued your dream of a home purchase. By that I mean the downturn may result in a buying opportunity on par with , or perhaps better than, the time you were first house hunting.
I agree, most people if given a choice would want to avoid strata living aka ” quasi-socialist living at it’s best” (???). If that window of opportunity to buy a detached SF home presents itself, be ready to go for it . While you may have been delayed by the wave of “Kool-Aid” drinking lemming purchasers, my guess is you have used the time to become an even better educated and more informed potential purchaser.
Knowledge IS Power !
Finally I am one who truly believes that everything that happens is for a purpose and provides a lesson. You may look back and see that as things unfold .
Best of Luck !
November 5th, 2008 at 2:14 am
Pandora,
I was starting to think about buying a house and settling down with my significant other a few years ago. Just a small house in the tri-cities so I could ride my bike to work and save on gas and basically live a peaceful existence there. I’d been saving for a while which took a lot of discipline for me and I was almost ready when the run up in prices started. And then the bidding wars. Suddenly my down payment was shrinking. Then it was a joke. It wasn’t long before realtors were telling me maybe I should settle for a condo! As someone who’d lived in apartments all his life that was just not an option. I wanted my own land where my future kids could play and where I didn’t have to ask permission to plant a shrub. Then the realtor was telling me maybe I should move to Surrey.
I can’t tell you how frustrating it’s been watching my humble little dream get farther and farther out of reach because of people’s speculation and greed. Easy credit, real estate pumpers, and dollar signs in people’s eyes. And then having to listen to people I work with telling me how bloody smart they were because they bought their house twenty years ago and now they’re friggin’ house-rich!
We’ve stayed out of the madness. We’ve continued to save. We’re not greedy people. One day we will get our little slice of heaven, humble though it may be. Especially if prices keep declining (and I hope they fall fast and far).
If some of the posters here take a little glee in seeing the tables turned on the speculators, let them. I, for one, enjoy it. And it’s about time. I’m sure I’m not alone in this.
November 5th, 2008 at 2:04 am
Boomers are in a mad rush to exit. They need to exit the real estate market quick and fast or else they have nothing to retire. Real estate market is going to stay low for a long long time. I wouldn’t buy real estate for the next 5 years
November 5th, 2008 at 1:02 am
Pandora:
I don’t know about these others, but I put up with two years of RE zombies looking at me with a mixture of pity and contempt when I politely tried to explain why purchasing a condo in Van wasn’t such a smart idea, particularly if the purchaser considered it an “investment”. My attempts to explain how “investments” are supposed to provide a cashflow, rather then act like a black hole for money met with… shall we say…. distain.
So, for the last couple of years I’ve been coming here to keep myself sane, and to constantly remind myself that I made the right decision.
I’ve been waiting two long years for the screaming to commence and the ride’s just getting started.
So honey, strap yourself in an enjoy the ride, it’s about to pick up speed. If you bought in 2005 you are going to lose some money, though perhaps not as much as some others. It’s also entirely possible you or your husband are going to lose your job in the next little while. Quite frankly if you’re married it’s extremely likely you’re going to get divorced; my parents did after 36 years of marriage. It’ll be a lot more difficult to hang on to your place then.
You may think you’ll be keeping that property in the family, and maybe you will. But soon enough you’ll be losing that snide tone of yours, I and I sincerely hope you’ll stick around so the rest of us can enjoy it. Quite frankly the only thing that would make the experience even better for me is if you tell me you’re a Boomer.
Yeah, I’m a jerk. I’m a sucker for other people’s pain as they say on my favorite podcast. I’m enjoying each whiny anecdote I hear from home owners these days. Call it the flipside of a boom market. I saw what was coming and refused to get into a rigged game. I’d say “forgive me for enjoying the fruits of my careful plans” but….. you know…. I don’t really care what you think. I just wanna hear the piggies squeal.
November 4th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
What does that mean for their housing market, and for vancouver’s?
Next to nothing. They may well be able to reduce the undershoot in prices by foreclosure abatement and similar policies. But nothing can prevent prices from returning to levels justified by rents and incomes. Neither in the US nor here.
November 4th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
“CNN is saying Obama will be the next US President.
What does that mean for their housing market, and for vancouver’s?”
Democrats were selling and flipping their units to make worse case Scenario now Republicans will foreclose their units to show Obama another halloween.
November 4th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
“What will a bunch of cheese-eating buy monkeys tell you?”
lol… nicely worded
market confidence… bout it… unfortunatly it will only be a short term indicator.
November 4th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
i actually think he’ll be a great leader and is a very inspiring person. I dont think he’ll save the downturn but he’ll recover tollerance/faith in the US government locally and abrod.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
For an exact answer to your question tommorow the TSX will respond to the election results and you will get your answer.
What will a bunch of cheese-eating buy monkeys tell you?
November 4th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
yeah pandora! tighten up your strap-on for launch of “the next leg up! whooo yeah! its not you its’ me yeah!
“the next leg up” yes we can
November 4th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
My prediction: Obama will be a 1 term president. No matter how hard he tries he won’t be able to live up to expectations. The housing bust will drag on, people will lose jobs, and life won’t suddenly be full of candy-canes and ponies, as many of his supporters seem to think.
There will be a violent backlash, and the Republicans will swoop in with a safe ticket (no women or black guys) and take the day.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
I talked to a lot of people today about Obama. Everyone here loves him like Kennedy. Perhaps they are little too optimistic.
The right-wingers tell me he restores their faith in America. The lefties see him as the second coming.
Talk about pressure.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:24 pm
“Anyone who did and can’t afford a housing bust, I have no sympathy for, and look forward to the foreclosure sales. Idiots.”
HA HA Yeah, if somehow the rules of the market ceased to exist and they actually became permanently rich, they would have been rubbing our faces in it until eternity. F*ck em.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
What does that mean for their housing market, and for vancouver’s?
Though i think Obama is a better leader he does have more protectionist policies wich will impact Canada negativly. For an exact answer to your question tommorow the TSX will respond to the election results and you will get your answer.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
its over boys in two years we will buy at min 40% discount. The real loosers in this game well you know who you are.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
November 4th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
What does that mean for their housing market, and for vancouver’s?
absolutely nothing!
he lives in Chicago and would
not be interested in buying a condo in
TV Towers or W
November 4th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Crabman Says:
“Dave Watt, the Greater Vancouver board’s president, said sales are not keeping pace with B.C.’s current economic conditions with low unemployment and stable interest rates.”
Crabman,
Dave Watt is talking about realtors jobs but his points are very very favourable for sellers to pull back their listing, see how much difference it makes when we bring things out of their board criteria.
Hmm Say thanks to the pope
because hey Nobody!!!!!.
Bdk,
Remember?Do we have Bush?,Bears would be nail bitting etc. or you want me to drag easily readable through accessable archives?Nobody can buy at 50% off Starting March 2009 Nobody!!!!!.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
CNN is saying Obama will be the next US President.
What does that mean for their housing market, and for vancouver’s?
November 4th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Pandora: I see it as buy a place you love at the peak of a bubble…. or rent a place you love (that’s both possible and desirable) for a few years, then buy a place you love and retire 5 years earlier. Don’t live in a place you don’t love, that’s really stupid.
Anyone who bought before the frothy heights of the bubble AND didn’t HELOC out to buy toys, vacations or groceries will be fine. Anyone who did buy at the peak and can afford it will be fine. Anyone who did and can’t afford a housing bust, I have no sympathy for, and look forward to the foreclosure sales. Idiots.
There ain’t no free lunch.
If it seems too good to be true… it probably is.
Borrowing for consumption is never a good idea.
And so on.
November 4th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Keeping an eye on the pimps:
I am only getting warmed up…It’s a L-O-N-G list.
“Filthy lucre” has been accessed by many hands up and down the so – called trickle down totem pole .
The NDP tend to pimp for “members only” .
What often happens is these lower rank pimps feel the “rain of fiscal manna” will never end… and adjust their lifestyles accordingly . ie they are often the last to see, let alone foresee, the bubble burst.
November 4th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
NO –LYMPICS
The NDP and the Liberals both live off the avails of RE whores and pimps.
Have you never seen how the die hard leftie shop stewards gloat over how much their house has gone up in value?
And all those NDP construction foremen who drive the fancy trucks with “I’m Backing the Bid” stickers, are they really concerned about the victims of the Olympics?
November 4th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Well Said, Don Lapre:
In hindsight, the RE bubble has, in fact, been a Ponzi- scheme where the winners are those who timed it well, but like any casino will tell you the number of losers vastly outnumber the winners.
Our Local Gov’ts have answered the siren call of the pimping developers, realtors and similar vested interests who simply wanted to a “key” to access a cash – cow bubble before it inevitably burst.
When your own citizens , their children and their children’s children etc. are at the point that home ownership becomes a distant dream, and a nightmare to achieve , as opposed to a goal many previous generations felt was a given, something is seriously wrong.
I am far removed from a Left Winger, quite the contrary. However, what I have seem is a thinly -veiled dictatorship at the upper echelons of decision – making , totally detached from reality and democracy , and accessible to and by a chosen few.
This bubble – burst was inevitable , but hopefully a lot of lessons will be learned, time will tell.
November 4th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Pandora,
Thanks for your prompt reply.
Regarding: “So if the value drops below what we bought it for, but we are happy in the house and have no intention of moving, are we also muppets for drinking the juice?”
Good question. It all comes down to what makes you happy (as long as you are not hurting someone else, of course). If you are happy with your decision, who am I to say otherwise? I wish you and your family only the best!
From our point of view, I thing the answers given to you by rx,Dingus and Don Lapre explain it better than I could with my poor immigrant English. These guys are excellent ‘expressioners’ (is that a word?) uhmmm… delegates? of our collective opinion on RE.
And arit?
arit has been living in his one bathroom Richmond townhouse with his four women(!) for the past five years, since the Excel sheet said “No buy”, before we knew of the term “Housing Bubble”. At 1000 dollars/month rent, the plan was to buy the house cash in 2016.
The plan didn’t know the decline will happen so fast. The bottom is going to happen before our calculations of 2012-2013.
Best regards
arit
November 4th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Pandora,
I think the desire is for the get-rich-quick real estate pyramid scheme of the last few years to come to an end. It’s existence has been clear for some time and those with the cohones to point out that the emperor has no clothes were met with all the ridiculous R/E cliches that are still permeating the press releases of the REBGV/CHMC and espoused at cocktail parties.
Most people are extremely unsophisticated financially and a massive number of people have been coerced not only by their own greed, but by trade groups, developers and marketers into a life of debt servitude for an asset that’s fundamental value is significantly less than they were led to, or wanted to believe.
November 4th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Pandora:
Don’t take it personally, eh.
The benefit I get out of this blog is to help make rational purchase decisions. Many of us have chewed over the fundamentals, and made decisions based on analyses appearing here and on other blogs, weighing our own risk tolerance, financial situation etc.
The exuberance you are hearing here is that of people who have made difficult choices and sacrifices based on their own judgement, and who are now seeing that bear fruit. Takes way more cojones than buying when fools are rushing in, let me tell you.
A house down the street from me is now listed 100k cheaper than when it was listed in the spring. Saving triple digits (plus interest) on a major purchase is a big life altering deal, in my books. Makes me happy. Forgive me if my happiness at the prospect of some betterment of my personal circumstances offends you in some way.
I think most of us wouldn’t deign to sneer at others, like yourself, who made different decisions that were right for them. As rx said, if you like your place, can make the payments, and aren’t going to need to sell, who cares what anyone here says?
But I don’t get what the sensitivity is about, or why you seem so snide.
November 4th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
“bdk” – neither actually.
And apologies for intruding in your little club.
Just not sure what we (although suppose I should say you as SFHs not allowed apparently) are trying to achieve here. Is it to gloat as the prices decline because you either had the foresight/lacked the cohones and resources to buy somewhere or is there a genuine desire to see prices reach an affordable level so more people can become home owners?
The flavour of recent posts suggests gloating is in the ascendant. Anyway, it is fun to read and for what it is worth I think the correction has some way to go.
Betamax – touche.
November 4th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Not sure why you need to keep patting yourselves on the back for it
Your lack of comprehension isn’t our problem
you might think about getting over yourselves
We thought about it, then decided against it.