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	<title>Comments on: 2009: The road ahead</title>
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		<title>By: realpaul</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37986</link>
		<dc:creator>realpaul</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 12:35:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>#91 EB, you&#039;re exactly right. The turnaround date is not per-determined, in fact it could be years out. I believe in the acumen of Asian businessmen and the society at large as astute, but they are not miracle workers. This is the same argument I use against those who insist BC/Vancouver will sail through this recession unscathed. Like The Great Mogambo has said, &quot;We&#039;re all Freakin Doomed&#039;. For the time being I agree, it&#039;s not pretty and everyone is going to get a look. 
 
10% of Electronic Arts staff got layoff notices today. It was kind of EA to wait until after Christmas. They are also amalgamating there 3 facilities into just one. How many ancilliary jobs go with those? Isn&#039;t the economic effect something like 3-1? 
 
Further afield 
  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/business/worldbusiness/03yuan.html?_r=1&amp;partner=rss&amp;emc=rss&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/business/worldb...&lt;/a&gt; &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37986&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#91 EB, you&#039;re exactly right. The turnaround date is not per-determined, in fact it could be years out. I believe in the acumen of Asian businessmen and the society at large as astute, but they are not miracle workers. This is the same argument I use against those who insist BC/Vancouver will sail through this recession unscathed. Like The Great Mogambo has said, &quot;We&#039;re all Freakin Doomed&#039;. For the time being I agree, it&#039;s not pretty and everyone is going to get a look.</p>
<p>10% of Electronic Arts staff got layoff notices today. It was kind of EA to wait until after Christmas. They are also amalgamating there 3 facilities into just one. How many ancilliary jobs go with those? Isn&#039;t the economic effect something like 3-1?</p>
<p>Further afield</p>
<p>  <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/business/worldbusiness/03yuan.html?_r=1&amp;partner=rss&amp;emc=rss" rel="nofollow"></a><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/business/worldb" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/business/worldb</a>&#8230;
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37986">1</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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		<title>By: EB</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37984</link>
		<dc:creator>EB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 11:39:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;i&gt;But there is no doubt that the entrepreneurial zeal that exists in that region of billions of smart people will turn around at some point.&lt;/i&gt; 
 
 That depends pretty strongly on a turnaround for the Western consumer, who is tapped out and is likely to remain so.  The vast Asian wealth accumulation came from selling the labor of the poor very cheaply to allow the west (primarily the US consumer) to accumulate more debt. The western middle class hasn&#039;t seen an increase in income in decades and only financed the past 10-15 years on credit cards and home equity withdrawals.  They&#039;re done. 
 
 It will turn around?  Tell that to Japan.  It doesn&#039;t have to do anything. &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37984&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>But there is no doubt that the entrepreneurial zeal that exists in that region of billions of smart people will turn around at some point.</i></p>
<p> That depends pretty strongly on a turnaround for the Western consumer, who is tapped out and is likely to remain so.  The vast Asian wealth accumulation came from selling the labor of the poor very cheaply to allow the west (primarily the US consumer) to accumulate more debt. The western middle class hasn&#039;t seen an increase in income in decades and only financed the past 10-15 years on credit cards and home equity withdrawals.  They&#039;re done.</p>
<p> It will turn around?  Tell that to Japan.  It doesn&#039;t have to do anything.
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37984">3</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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		<title>By: realpaul</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37978</link>
		<dc:creator>realpaul</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 11:12:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=890#comment-37978</guid>
		<description>#89 I just got back from Hong Kong and Singapore 
 
 &lt;a href=&quot;http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090102/as_singapore_economy.html,&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090102/as_singapore_econo...&lt;/a&gt;  
 
I have lots of friends in business there. The news from real people with real jobs and business intrests is that things are not rosy and getting a lot worse region wide. You are probably just a lot smarter than all the people there to know something they don&#039;t. Good for you. 
 
Of course there were a lot of people out last night , it was New Years Day. I was out, and I hate going out. But even so, my many friends in the Chinese community here are seeing off 10-20% in the quarter. 
 
As far as investing in the stock market there (China) I quite agree if you can keep a three to five year time frame in mind. Stocks are cheap, buy there are getting cheaper, daily. No bottom in China yet, the market is off more than 54% this past year. But there is no doubt that the entrepeneurial zeal that exists in that region of billions of smart people will turn around at some point. But, remember they are TOTALLY dependant on the fortunes of the Western Markets in N.AM and Europe. Chindia and the other Bric markets are export driven, period. That includes NE Asia, SE Asia and Japan. 
 
Probably a good time to buy a CHINDIA or BRIC ETF. This isn&#039;t a stock forum so I won&#039;t start making recs. &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37978&quot;&gt;2&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#89 I just got back from Hong Kong and Singapore</p>
<p> <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090102/as_singapore_economy.html," rel="nofollow"></a><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090102/as_singapore_econo" rel="nofollow">http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090102/as_singapore_econo</a>&#8230; </p>
<p>I have lots of friends in business there. The news from real people with real jobs and business intrests is that things are not rosy and getting a lot worse region wide. You are probably just a lot smarter than all the people there to know something they don&#039;t. Good for you.</p>
<p>Of course there were a lot of people out last night , it was New Years Day. I was out, and I hate going out. But even so, my many friends in the Chinese community here are seeing off 10-20% in the quarter.</p>
<p>As far as investing in the stock market there (China) I quite agree if you can keep a three to five year time frame in mind. Stocks are cheap, buy there are getting cheaper, daily. No bottom in China yet, the market is off more than 54% this past year. But there is no doubt that the entrepeneurial zeal that exists in that region of billions of smart people will turn around at some point. But, remember they are TOTALLY dependant on the fortunes of the Western Markets in N.AM and Europe. Chindia and the other Bric markets are export driven, period. That includes NE Asia, SE Asia and Japan.</p>
<p>Probably a good time to buy a CHINDIA or BRIC ETF. This isn&#039;t a stock forum so I won&#039;t start making recs.
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37978">2</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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		<title>By: Supraboy</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37964</link>
		<dc:creator>Supraboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 09:05:50 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Hey EB, you&#039;re about 6 months behind. The stock markets already crashed to factor in all the bad news. Better buy some stocks now while they&#039;re cheap. All indicators says we&#039;ll be back into a bull market phase within the next 6-12 months. The stock markets welcomed the new year with a bang. Get in before it&#039;s too late. &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37964&quot;&gt;-3&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey EB, you&#039;re about 6 months behind. The stock markets already crashed to factor in all the bad news. Better buy some stocks now while they&#039;re cheap. All indicators says we&#039;ll be back into a bull market phase within the next 6-12 months. The stock markets welcomed the new year with a bang. Get in before it&#039;s too late.
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37964">-3</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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		<title>By: EB</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37963</link>
		<dc:creator>EB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 07:33:37 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;i&gt;&quot;Trade finance is collapsing,&quot; said Victor Fung, the chairman of the Li &amp; Fung Group, the giant supply chain management company that connects factories in China with retailers in the United States and Europe. &quot;We&#039;ve got orders we can&#039;t ship right now.&quot;   
  
Fung estimates that 10,000 of the 60,000 factories in China owned by Hong Kong interests have closed or will close in the coming months. &lt;/i&gt;  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/01/business/exports.php&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/01/business/e...&lt;/a&gt;  
 
 
Tell me some more about Asian financial brilliance?  A lot of AZNs have developed a very high opinion about themselves, resting mostly upon exploitation of the gross wage disparities which result from Asia&#039;s teeming billions of poor folk.  Japan is out of that picture of course - they&#039;ve been getting poorer for decades now.  China is now hitting the skids.  It was all an illusion. &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37963&quot;&gt;1&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>&quot;Trade finance is collapsing,&quot; said Victor Fung, the chairman of the Li &amp; Fung Group, the giant supply chain management company that connects factories in China with retailers in the United States and Europe. &quot;We&#039;ve got orders we can&#039;t ship right now.&quot;  </p>
<p>Fung estimates that 10,000 of the 60,000 factories in China owned by Hong Kong interests have closed or will close in the coming months. </i><br />
  <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/01/business/exports.php" rel="nofollow"></a><a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/01/business/e" rel="nofollow">http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/01/business/e</a>&#8230;  </p>
<p>Tell me some more about Asian financial brilliance?  A lot of AZNs have developed a very high opinion about themselves, resting mostly upon exploitation of the gross wage disparities which result from Asia&#039;s teeming billions of poor folk.  Japan is out of that picture of course &#8211; they&#039;ve been getting poorer for decades now.  China is now hitting the skids.  It was all an illusion.
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37963">1</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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		<title>By: MrBear</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37954</link>
		<dc:creator>MrBear</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 00:00:09 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Supraboy is full of crap in general, we&#039;d all be best to ignore him. 
 
#73 realpaul, you say that you cannot get a 25 year mortgage beyond 40 years old; are you sure of that?  Because that implies that 0 down 40 year mortgages are (um, were) only available to those under 25 years old.  How many 0/40 mortgages can there be out there, I wonder, and for what average amount? &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37954&quot;&gt;3&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Supraboy is full of crap in general, we&#039;d all be best to ignore him.</p>
<p>#73 realpaul, you say that you cannot get a 25 year mortgage beyond 40 years old; are you sure of that?  Because that implies that 0 down 40 year mortgages are (um, were) only available to those under 25 years old.  How many 0/40 mortgages can there be out there, I wonder, and for what average amount?
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37954">3</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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		<title>By: Supraboy</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37953</link>
		<dc:creator>Supraboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 23:53:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=890#comment-37953</guid>
		<description>I was out at a Chinese restaurant tonight. Oh boy, was it ever packed. I looked around, ordered a Tsingtao beer and felt like a poor man compared to everyone else&#039;s table. They were ordering bottles of red wine. If you people think the Vancouver housing market is going down, you better think again. If the economy is really that bad, why are the Chinese people packed with people with money. I have a feeling that the real estate market going down is only a myth. I open up the Chinese real estate newspapers and I see the majority of houses in Vancouver listed for over a million. Even crappy Vancouver specials in Marpole are listed over a million, and they&#039;re at least 10 years old too! They won&#039;t sell for anything less and they have lots of cash to hold out for a very long time.  
 
The Olympics will give the condo market a boost as people will be scrambling for rental units. &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37953&quot;&gt;-7&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was out at a Chinese restaurant tonight. Oh boy, was it ever packed. I looked around, ordered a Tsingtao beer and felt like a poor man compared to everyone else&#039;s table. They were ordering bottles of red wine. If you people think the Vancouver housing market is going down, you better think again. If the economy is really that bad, why are the Chinese people packed with people with money. I have a feeling that the real estate market going down is only a myth. I open up the Chinese real estate newspapers and I see the majority of houses in Vancouver listed for over a million. Even crappy Vancouver specials in Marpole are listed over a million, and they&#039;re at least 10 years old too! They won&#039;t sell for anything less and they have lots of cash to hold out for a very long time. </p>
<p>The Olympics will give the condo market a boost as people will be scrambling for rental units.
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37953">-7</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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		<title>By: realpaul</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37952</link>
		<dc:creator>realpaul</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 23:08:46 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>#84 Nobody, thanks for the laugh. You need to get out more. promise not to give anyone your advice in real time. 
 
#83 Stevee , you would only have to take out a second ( or come up with some serious mommy cash like a Supraboy) if you had zero equity in your property as in the example you refer to. Key concept, zero equity, NONE OF YOUR OWN MONEY IN THE PROPERTY.  
 
In the example the First Mort was written for $400K. Three years later the prop is appraised at 300K. You put 5% down originally ( 20K) . The differance is $80K. This 80K is the negative equity.  
 
Adversly if you had a 400K 1st and put 25% down (100K) then when the appraisal came in at 300K you would still be optionable. This would not be zero equity (even though it appears that way) , in this scenario the bank does not have a negative balance sheet. But, sadly you&#039;ve lost 100K, the upside though is you&#039;re still in your home at bank rates. 
 
Hope this helps &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37952&quot;&gt;4&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#84 Nobody, thanks for the laugh. You need to get out more. promise not to give anyone your advice in real time.</p>
<p>#83 Stevee , you would only have to take out a second ( or come up with some serious mommy cash like a Supraboy) if you had zero equity in your property as in the example you refer to. Key concept, zero equity, NONE OF YOUR OWN MONEY IN THE PROPERTY. </p>
<p>In the example the First Mort was written for $400K. Three years later the prop is appraised at 300K. You put 5% down originally ( 20K) . The differance is $80K. This 80K is the negative equity. </p>
<p>Adversly if you had a 400K 1st and put 25% down (100K) then when the appraisal came in at 300K you would still be optionable. This would not be zero equity (even though it appears that way) , in this scenario the bank does not have a negative balance sheet. But, sadly you&#039;ve lost 100K, the upside though is you&#039;re still in your home at bank rates.</p>
<p>Hope this helps
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37952">4</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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		<title>By: nobody!!!!!</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37950</link>
		<dc:creator>nobody!!!!!</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 22:47:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=890#comment-37950</guid>
		<description>&quot;Ex: You pay $400K for your digs , 3 year term , 25 year amortization. Your 6.5% 3 yr var., comes due and the bank orders an appraisal which comes back at $300K. OUCH. You&#8217;ve paid down the $20K LOC thank you and owe $380K. You have $80K negative equity.&quot; 
 
Banks never go through re-appraisal unless you switch over your mortgage with other banks even if some one chose to change bank or other mortgage company then rest of comment from paul goes to America because he knows &lt;b&gt;VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN&lt;/b&gt; 
 
Arit,you have to go through your family doctor to disscuss dementia which show you unreal things b.c. medical does not take action unless your doctor refer you to next step. &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37950&quot;&gt;-8&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&quot;Ex: You pay $400K for your digs , 3 year term , 25 year amortization. Your 6.5% 3 yr var., comes due and the bank orders an appraisal which comes back at $300K. OUCH. You&rsquo;ve paid down the $20K LOC thank you and owe $380K. You have $80K negative equity.&quot;</p>
<p>Banks never go through re-appraisal unless you switch over your mortgage with other banks even if some one chose to change bank or other mortgage company then rest of comment from paul goes to America because he knows <b>VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN</b></p>
<p>Arit,you have to go through your family doctor to disscuss dementia which show you unreal things b.c. medical does not take action unless your doctor refer you to next step.
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37950">-8</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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		<title>By: Steevee</title>
		<link>http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/2009-the-road-ahead.html#comment-37949</link>
		<dc:creator>Steevee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 22:30:40 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Realpaul, 
 
  Thanks for your insight re Arit&#039;s question. Now if you, or anyone else for that matter, has a moment, I would like to clarify something (for my own personal education). Do you mean to say, in your example, tht if the person taking out the mortgage sees their home drop by $80,000 in value, that when refinancing they would have to take out a second mortage, likely at a much higher interest rate, to cover that loss ($80k)? Thanks in advance. &lt;p class=&quot;top-comments&quot;&gt;Current score: &lt;span class=&quot;top-comments-karma&quot; id=&quot;karma-37949&quot;&gt;0&lt;/span&gt; &lt;small&gt;(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Realpaul,</p>
<p>  Thanks for your insight re Arit&#039;s question. Now if you, or anyone else for that matter, has a moment, I would like to clarify something (for my own personal education). Do you mean to say, in your example, tht if the person taking out the mortgage sees their home drop by $80,000 in value, that when refinancing they would have to take out a second mortage, likely at a much higher interest rate, to cover that loss ($80k)? Thanks in advance.
<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-37949">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p>
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