BC house prices to drop 20%
Benjamin Tal of CIBC World Markets is saying that we’re currently in a recession and is predicting a 20% drop in BC house prices, and a smaller 10% drop in house prices nationally.
He said Canada’s recession was sparked by slowing growth in the wake of the meltdown of U.S. housing markets. The economy will not begin to recover until American real estate bottoms out, the financial sector stabilizes and until government economic stimulus packages take hold.
Tal said that could be sometime around May next year.
He cautioned that recovery will not be a robust “V-shaped” bounce-back. Rather it will take more of a “U-shape” and will take some time.
Tal said Canada’s housing downturn is a recession-led correction rather than the kind of meltdown that brought U.S. markets low when large numbers of high-risk borrowers defaulted on their loans.
Tal said B.C. is likely to see deeper corrections in real estate prices, largely because values here shot up so much higher and more quickly that in other parts of the country.
“When you double the value of your real estate over the course of breakfast, then you pay the price,” Tal said.
He said the recession still has to run its course, and was in the equivalent of “the sixth or seventh inning” of a baseball game.
I notice that we don’t have any quotes from Tal in the Wiki Quote-tracker, anyone feel like adding some? Thanks to Re-diculous for the link!
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December 3rd, 2008 at 6:34 pm
GOING to go down 20%?!?
Prices are ALREADY down at least 18.5%.
In other brilliant forecasting news, I predict winter will be here soon…
December 2nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Warren Buffet and Chris Rock move on over, Greely is in town.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:39 pm
C’mon guys, I really don’t see why anyone would get so would up about 2 ASCII characters such as #1. Yes it is sensensless childlike humour that probably only gets a chuckle out of the small minority that really understands what life is all about. I myself may be a simple mind for taking part in such adolescent behaviours.
Fortunately, my mind is not so simple that it deterred me
from selling my place in April at 100% profit, then renting at 30% of my mortgage.
Tee Hee…eat that with yer fricken Grey Poupon ya pompous twits!
BTW I’m #10
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:00 pm
The “I’m #1″ behaviour is common on the popular Calculated Risk blog – which is a great blog. I guess that’s where some of these comedians have found it. It sure brings them plenty of mindless pleasure. Small minds etc
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
“What’s with the I’m #1, #2 nonsense. Who gives a damn? Quit adding to the visual noise, fer pete’s sakes.”
Yeah, let’s use visual noise to try and discourage visual noise…sounds a little hypocritcal. Relax and don’t be such a tighta$$
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:05 pm
What you deem controversial may be a lesson for others!!!
http://preview.tinyurl.com/59c9me
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:50 pm
I agree with Dingus, I know you’re against deleting posts that are stupid or contrary to popular opinion here or controversial Pope, and that’s noble of you. But could you draw the line at utterly off topic and useless posts like those?
December 2nd, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Well, I beat you by one. Nyah.
December 2nd, 2008 at 1:17 pm
#4
just sayin’
December 2nd, 2008 at 12:08 pm
What’s with the I’m #1, #2 nonsense. Who gives a damn? Quit adding to the visual noise, fer pete’s sakes.
December 2nd, 2008 at 11:17 am
I’m #2 Dammit..I tink…
December 2nd, 2008 at 10:29 am
I will be very surprised if the US housing market has bottomed by May. Maybe May 2011. I also think this is going to be an L-shaped recession, not a V or U.
I’m not really familiar enough with the national numbers to know whether a 10% drop is plausible. Doesn’t really matter anyway, since you don’t buy an index. I suspect the BC number is low, since most of the population centres are due for a much bigger drop.