Downtown townhouse market update

YLTNboomerang sent in this updated snapshot of the townhouse market in Coal Harbour & False Creek North, along with a chart showing days on market vs. sales price reductions. You can download the XLS here and here’s the price change over time chart:

I’ve started a new submarket tracker in the wiki and encourage anyone tracking specific Vancouver sub markets to share their information there. Email me if you add information there and I’ll create a blog post about it.

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Alexcanuck
Alexcanuck
11 years ago

Scullboy: If you're interested, Roundel Cafe, 2465 E Hastings, is in urgent need of a cook. Great people, great crowd, recession proof, very foodie but not pretentious, 9 am open so none of those 5am start times (shudder). Eclectic and artsy. My fave brunch place.

Many "high end" restaurants are NOT recession proof, same for $70 basic haircut places. Funeral directors and divorce lawyers should be safe, and anyone supplying reasonably priced things everyone needs.

Oh, and repo men!

WBWYCmovetheafterpartytotheroundel:

They will open an evening for a booked event, they have Crannog beer on tap, and they are great!

Anonymous
Anonymous
11 years ago

Cook – no, less people are eating out

Hairdresser – heard of home based barbers :O

scullboy
11 years ago

Since I'm not working in a cookware store, I can confirm there are some excellent deals to be had out there. I'm not certain we can say for sure that deflation is in play and since it's been many years since I worked retail I can't compare this year to any other. However I *CAN* say there's an excellent Bodum with 2 cup set on sale for $29.99 . Regular price on that is $70.00 I get the feeling there's a bidding war going on amongst retailers. I also noticed a Le Creuset pot in Costco. Normally it would have cost a good $500 as recently as …. say…. 2005. It's selling for $199.00 The people I work with are convinced their store is "recession free" because people wil move from expensive restaraunts to eating at home. While I'd agree… Read more »

Lily pad
Lily pad
11 years ago

Mickey — you are brilliantly obsessed. Excellent work with the condo/sfh correlation. That makes me feel better since I'm after a house.

MickeyFinn
MickeyFinn
11 years ago

Haha, brilliant eh? Well I would agree with you Lily pad as regards some of the other posters on this site, but not appropriate in my case… I would accept "brilliantly obsessed" though! How obsessed? Well for example, using the REBGV's average price graph that dates back to 1977 (y'know, the price graph that we were all viewing again just yesterday when the November numbers were released) I calculated the relationship between condo/townhome prices and single family home prices. The correlation as expressed by the r-squared was something like "0.94" which is a pretty strong correlation. What it means in plain English is that if downtown condos should "tank" someday then we could expect that single family home prices would fall as well. It was even possible to calculate a pretty straight forward formula for estimating the average price of… Read more »

patriotz
patriotz
11 years ago

It is not a speculative bubble. I suppose we can argue about semantics here but to me a bubble exists when capital sells at a price not justified by yield or a good or service sells at a price not justified by utility. If some good or service becomes fashionable, such as Nike sneakers or yoga lessons or whatever, and consumers are willing to pay a high price for them that's not a bubble. You might not think they are worth the price but the consumers do and it's the consumers who define utility. Now if someone was buying future production of Nike sneakers with the intention of selling it for a profit, that would be a bubble. Thus residents willing to pay a high cost of living and earn low incomes to live in Vancouver is not a bubble,… Read more »

Lily pad
Lily pad
11 years ago

Well, yes, Alexcanuck. I had no idea I was such a rare bird! Considering my new-found revelation, congratulations to you and yours, too. You sound like a brilliant student.

Alexcanuck
Alexcanuck
11 years ago

Lily pad: Truly debt free? Good on ya! That make , umm, three that I know of, including me. Unless you count current month's fuel on a credit card, the prepay law makes cash a pain. But I drive a smartcar so that's not much.

Oh, and I'm not brilliant, I just know how to learn from the brilliant ones.

Lily pad
Lily pad
11 years ago

p.s. The story above took place in Kerrisdale.

Lily pad
Lily pad
11 years ago

Thanks, Mickey for the brilliant post. You among other brilliant posters (Drachen, Patriotz, Alexcanuck, bdk, no-lympics and so many more) are the reason I visit this blog. I was in a local drugstore (LD) today and noticed that the prices of the small appliances like coffee makers and such are way cheaper than they were last year. I mentioned this to another shopper. The coffee maker I bought two years ago for $70 is now $35. The other shopper and I were discussing about how deflation is now in play. She said that she had bought the same coffee bean grinder 20 years ago for $20 that is now $15.99! Well, I said, "I guess anybody who has no debt will be able to buy a lot of stuff this year." Her reply — deer in the headlights shock, "…but… Read more »

MickeyFinn
MickeyFinn
11 years ago

Jesse #76 Okay well in all honesty I get carried away a bit these days cuz I'm downright giddy that the market is crashing in exactly the manner that I have been predicting (and ranting on and on about) for the past three or four years… so I probably cannot provide the type of evidence to support my statements that you would like but here is generally what I was basing my opinion on… As regards "outrageously inflated prices…" and "rents ahead of incomes" I would point to the countless reports over the years which demonstrated that the housing/accommodation portion of a typical Vancouverites cost-of-living was at extraordinary levels. Such as reports from the major banks (The Royal Bank's reports come to mind here). In fact, my recollection is that those reports indicated that Vancouver real estate had – years… Read more »

jesse
jesse
11 years ago

"It is not possible to have a bubble in rents because you cannot speculate in rents."

It is not a speculative bubble. It is a point in time when renters are willing to pay more than they would normally. This is because they really really want to live in Vancouver but the wages are low and are willing to sacrifice more of their incomes to do it. I think what is trying to be said is that Vancouver does not deserve this premium and rents will fall relative to incomes: the "Vancouver is cool" bubble pops.

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

Global Condo FORECLOSURE Story

http://www.globaltv.com/globaltv/bc/video/index.h

Under : Global BC Stories:

Title : " Foreclosures up"

Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
11 years ago

"Can anyone find the clip to the story and post it? I’d love to watch that one again!"

Click "Video" on the Global BC website, then Global BC stories.

Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
11 years ago

"Ya have to wonder why the owners didn’t try to at least take a few things , or sell or pawn them , or auction them , whatever."

Was it worth much? Didn't look that great.

They probably didn't want to draw attention to themselves. The midnight move.

patriotz
patriotz
11 years ago

Rents could well retrench given the massive oversupply but you are suggesting we are in a rental bubble. I’m not yet convinced this is the case. It is not possible to have a bubble in rents because you cannot speculate in rents. Rental accommodation is paid for in real time. You cannot buy the right to rent accommodation for a set price in the future and resell it to someone else. There is no futures market. Generally speaking you cannot have a bubble in services for this reason. There are exceptions, for example in Japan had a bubble in golf club memberships in the 80's. This was possible because the memberships were for an extended period and could be resold. Just because some local service is expensive relative to the rest of the country doesn't mean there is a bubble.… Read more »

blueskies
blueskies
11 years ago

Ya have to wonder why the owners didn’t try to at least take a few things , or sell or pawn them , or auction them , whatever.

they bought the goods with HELOC money

so it wasn't a real cost…..

on the house… literally

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

Hey Richmond Rich Renter and Keeping an eye on the pimps…

That's 3 great minds that think alike !

Now we can form a Coalition …..ahahahaha

Watch out RE Canada !

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

Keeping an eye on the pimps… Not a problem……maybe its actually better we can corroborate the facts for each other. I think these types of "walkaway -and -leave- everything -behind " foreclosures are going to be more and more common here in BC. Still….Ya have to wonder why the owners didn't try to at least take a few things , or sell or pawn them , or auction them , whatever.( Makes me want to go to the local auction and see what will be put on the block…..my sense is a lot of good stuff will be showing up at auction and sold very c-h-e-a-p ! ) Good point re: UNpaid Strata fees…, One reason I wouldn't want to even consider a condo…another great unknown as to the solvency of fellow strata owners to pay their fair share. Re… Read more »

Richmond Rich Renter
Richmond Rich Renter
11 years ago

No-Lympics – I just saw that clip on Global as well. At first I thought I was watching a story from the US about home owners walking away from their mortgages, leaving all their personal belongings….but nope, it was Vancouver! And I couldn't believe Debra Hope actually used the word "SUB-PRIME" on the 6:00 news? Isn't that a devil term? I thought that subprime only existed in the US (rolling my eyes). So I guess it really can happen here! That and the fact that tonight they announced foreclosures are now up 150%!

Can anyone find the clip to the story and post it? I'd love to watch that one again!

Ohhh and I don't think Deb Hope is ugly, maybe just an unfortunate haircut from a bad stylist.

Keeping An Eye on th
11 years ago

Soryy I slapped the post together before reading the last one.

Sorry NO-LYMPICS, great minds think alike.

i'm sure you agree with me about Deb!

Keeping An Eye on th
11 years ago

Anybody see the local real estate market melt down, and foreclosure news clip with ugly Deb Hope? She wasn’t so giddy tonight.

700k condos foreclosed, and can’t find buyers for 499K. The owner absconded, left all the furniture behind, and the bank holding the bag.

I just hope the idiots that stood in line to buy the little shoe boxes, get stuck paying for the maintenance for all the others that are about to leave during the night.

Bad Karma and well deserved for contributing to the bubble.

It couldn’t happen in Vancouver they said. It’s not happening in Vancouver the pimps are still saying.

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

Didya catch the Global News this evening at 6 PM and see one of our favourite realtors Ian Watt?

He was in a foreclosed condo at the Wall Center.

Bought for $700,000.

Watt is trying to sell it for $499,000 .

The owner just walked out and left EVERYTHING (ie TV, furniture, beds , other personal effects etc.) unbeknownst to anyone else in the strata.

Foreclosure lawyer also interviwed and says the norm was such parties in such financial difficulty simply listed and sold …but not now, there are simply not many (if any) buyers out there in this collapsing RE market.

That US phenomenon they said would not happen here is now happening here .

BTW "Season Greetings " to Comrades Drachen and Oneangryslav !

bdk
bdk
11 years ago

Anyone out there making $130,000 who wants to buy a 2 bedroom at woodwards?

"Woodward's 2 bed 2 bath View Suite Assignment Missed out on Woodwards? Now is your chance to get in at Developers Cost!

This fabulous 2 bed 2 bath featues the best floor plan in W32 with the best view and best balcony. This functional Suite features engineered hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances and more. Ownership in this landmark building affords you membership to the world class facilities of club W.

Get extra study time at the new downtown SFU campus.

This is the best deal out there in W32 get in while you can!

completion scheduled for Summer 2009

Assignment of Contract $635,000

Contact Colleen Rezac Royal LePage City Centre 604-783-9554"

NO -LYMPICS
NO -LYMPICS
11 years ago

Hot Dam. You ARE one angry slav !

( BTW : Are you also the one whose family member didn't take a $1 Million for their house before the bubble got nuked ? waahhh!!! )

Anyway…my comments are quoted from the stories I linked , they are not my editorial comments.

Not really clear on how you can even remotely bring racial inferences into this , or claiming I am blaming any specific groups. (???) If you actually viewed the CBS videos they would actually agree with some of your other less ignorant points.

If not….Maybe you should pass the Texas Mickey of Turnip Vodka you are at least half – way through over to Drachen , ya squareheads .

=========================================================

To" Hey"

Touche' and " Seasons Greetings "!