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December 23rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
My understanding is that Tinseltown was built by a Chinese-Canadian developer with the goal of creating a bulwark for chinatown against the East Hastings set. Of course he would have also been hoping to make money from the place, but I doubt that is working out so well. Don’t take that story as authoritative, though. It’s been so long that I don’t even remember where I heard it. Oh, by that story the mall is supposed to have a massive number of security cameras as well, but I’ve never noticed them.
I used to love going to that theatre when I lived in the West End, but it is too long of a walk from my current place Kits. I’ve always wondered what sort of deal the stores got for locating there. I’d guess the furniture place that takes up half of the ground floor is just a front by the mall owner to keep the place from looking completely empty. I never saw anyone in there, and for all I know it may not even have cash registers.
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Tinseltown:
http://www.dooneyscafe.com/content/view/342/31/
December 23rd, 2008 at 9:57 pm
NO-Lympics, i share your view on that alternate universe known as Tinseltown. I love the movie theatre, but the weird collection of stores simply defies belief. My personal favourite is the Bod & Christiansen (sp?) that sells leather pants, jackets etc. For years they have had most of the inventory consistently marked down by…90%…yes, i’m sure those used to be $500 leather pants. Who owns that mall? How do they finance it? When is their break even date…2050?
December 23rd, 2008 at 9:54 pm
nice picture. but listening to the bulls, I didn’t realize they were half monkey. I thought they were half assed.
December 23rd, 2008 at 8:25 pm
#43 other ted, deflation isn’t the issue in the Vancouver Real Estate market. Deflation refers to established values being eroded. There is no evidence of values being established in Vancouver throughout the hyped up market. Prices were artificially inflated into a bubble and are coming down accordingly, this is not an example of deflation, it’s bubblenomics at work. No one on the Federal or Provincial level are concerned about the falling prices of condo’s.
December 23rd, 2008 at 8:20 pm
“No strataman, construction standards haven’t deviated up or down over the last number years, mediocre construction is a Vancouver standard. ” Sorry to dissapoint you AN but mediocre was good the last five years is just dangerous crappy construction, never seen anything CLOSE to it in my 40 years. Signed As-builts (100′s of them) that do not even resemble what is on site. Totally crappy engineering these guys must get their degrees mail order. Pumps put in backwards, ALL safety valves missing (signed off by engineers, elevators that can not come close to the performance of 30 year old buildings. No your wrong totally wrong. Mediocre would be many steps above todays standards!!
December 23rd, 2008 at 7:39 pm
No hyperinflation, but quite possibly 70′s style inflation. No, the bond vigalantes or chinese won’t call the shots. No strataman, construction standards haven’t deviated up or down over the last number years, mediocre construction is a Vancouver standard.
December 23rd, 2008 at 6:12 pm
One of the bull arguments I am seeing right now is that hyperinflation will save the day. My take on hyperinflation is that more money is being printed which chases the same amount of a commodity in short supply sending prices for that commodity up through the roof. For example if food is scarce printing more money will make a loaf of bread shoot up. But for something like lets say Vancouver real estate where we have a glut of supply will not have price overshoot.
and I was wondering if anyone has data on real house prices during times of hyperinflation in the past. comparing real house prices (corrected to incomes). My gut feeling is that hyperinflation will not save the day.
And there is also talk about how deflation is bad for the economy. Well I can see consumer spending going down but won’t deflation just make people spend on essentials and less on luxury items. I don’t think people will hold back from buying fuel, housing, or food because they think price will drop further. Of course with housing they will rent rather than buy. Any economists out here who can comment.
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
This one is a classic example of how bulls scammed and baited a greater fool
Who ignored good advice from well meaning and honest bears.
House or Townhouse
http://tinyurl.com/7l8bzv
poor guy is eating his bitter fruit now
Approximate value of house
http://tinyurl.com/8rsejx
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Re new BC Ferries.
One side of the story is the builders side.
Apparently, BC Ferries didn’t allow for any practical testing of the design…the production schedule was ramped up with fingers crossed mode.
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Talked to an associate who works for a firm that does both residential and commercial leasing in downtwon Vancouver.
He tells me the renters are now in ” Dutch Auction ” mode…going up to prospective landlords and fishing for their ” bottom line ” rents. Indicator of supply ?
==========================================================
Also, today’s junk mail contains an ad for ” acquiring Real Estate license in 5 Weeks ” .
Also got a blank cheque for $1000 to the “Realty Academy”
Expires Dec. 24, 2008
Phone # is (604) 787 – 1118 (no really!!!)
Anything with the name ” Academy ” must be legit.
Given the market will rebound in spring 2009 (a given)…one can be finished by Super Bowl and then watch the pre – sale line – ups full of Rich Asians again !!!
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Ted Says; “I have seen this type of unit escalate from about 500 – 550 to 700+.” IMHO is that we are between 20 and 25% of the expected drop. I would suggest we will see many 1100 Sq.ft two bedroom Townhouses in the $400,000.00 range in 2011. Two bedroom Tower suites in the Marina side or Beach Cresc area will bottom at $300,000 to 350,000. Two bedroom Tower Suites more than two blocks from False Creek or Yaletown Proper or Coal Harbor will easily be $100,000 less for the same floor plan irregardless of age +- five Years. Recently built (last two years) will be the most devalued as shoddy workmanship makes itself apparent. Prime Condo’s will be five to ten years old or built in 1999 to 2004.
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
V738324
Listed priceL $852,000
Assessment 2008: $585,800
Last sale on 20/Jul/2007: $590,000
with 1 bdrm suite for Nanny
Is that nicalisa dumping her 2007 purchase for a 45% profit $^$
December 23rd, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Ted Says:
December 23rd, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Ok, I for one would like to buy a home sometime in the future even if it goes down a bit in value. I have rented for three years now and have not done a good job of timing the market. If I had purchased three years ago I could have withstood a 30% correction and still be ahead. In addition I would have enjoyed the ownership of my home. I think we are getting fairly close to a reasonable level (Vancouver will always command a premium in my opinion). My target unit is at least 900+ square foot, two bedroom, two bath condo in downtown Vancouver. I have seen this type of unit escalate from about 500 – 550 to 700+. You can now get them in the low to mid 500’s again. I think 450 is about the right number based on rent (1800 – 2200 per month for a newer condo) providing a 3.5 – 5% cap rate.
Ted – you should recheck your cap rate numbers. Do they include strata fees, property taxes, special assessments, vacancy provisions etc? And 3.5 – 5% is hardly enough return considering the risk of a rental property.
From what I’ve read, 100-125 * monthly rent is more in the range of fair value. Way below the $450k range you’re thinking but if you think that is a good price point, jump right in!
December 23rd, 2008 at 3:04 pm
For the new ferries, I would try to give them a break. After the fast cat ordeal, a less-efficient-than-promised ship is not the worst that can happen. Too bad BC ferry went for something new and fancy, rather than something old and boring. In all likelihood, we’ll probably have three new ships to use, with either a fuel surcharge or a upgrade surcharge. Not the end of the world.
The convention center is an example why P3 is absolutely necessary. It really felt like the Lion’s Gate Bridge, except the LGB was built during construction downtime, hence not over budget by a huge amount. Of course, the convention center is a white elephant project, while the bridge is an essential service, by my accounting standard.
I’m not seeing any condo ads on Georgia Straight this week. I know that winter is a slow month, but I recall some RE ads in GS in previous winters. Realtors must be watching their ad spending very carefully.
December 23rd, 2008 at 2:41 pm
vansanity:
No worries – I have a one-year-old-100$-bet with abovementioned friend which I am about to collect in January. Let’s see if he can say “Van RE DOES go down” LOL
Their stubborness == our gain. And this is only the beginning. An appetizer, merely.
Regards,
arit
December 23rd, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Ok, I for one would like to buy a home sometime in the future even if it goes down a bit in value. I have rented for three years now and have not done a good job of timing the market. If I had purchased three years ago I could have withstood a 30% correction and still be ahead. In addition I would have enjoyed the ownership of my home. I think we are getting fairly close to a reasonable level (Vancouver will always command a premium in my opinion). My target unit is at least 900+ square foot, two bedroom, two bath condo in downtown Vancouver. I have seen this type of unit escalate from about 500 – 550 to 700+. You can now get them in the low to mid 500’s again. I think 450 is about the right number based on rent (1800 – 2200 per month for a newer condo) providing a 3.5 – 5% cap rate.
December 23rd, 2008 at 2:34 pm
arit – we must work in the same place. I had a colleague say that real estate never goes down. That he told his own children to buy out in the valley because they would never afford in vancouver. He gave me the same advice. A year later, he’s bragging about how he know the downturn was coming. Now he’s saying bottom in June. Ahem… really I say? When that doesn’t happen I’m sure this guy will change his tune.
No matter who they are, people are better at fake patting themself on the back then admitting they were wrong. Ignoramouses all of them!
December 23rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Last night, I had the rare opportunity to go Yaletown area, AND kill some time(about 3 hours)…. and walk around snow and all…(actually wasn’t that bad ).
Walked the area between Main and Cambie….in and around Chinatown.
Went into TinselTown….talk about a disaster, the place must be 80 % vacant. Its current tenants are basically food court , movie theatre, and a few token stores.
There are a couple of residential towers nearing completion…but anyone working on these sites must feel like they are building a coffin for the RE bubble funeral.
There was a Canucks game on….but the downtown area was frikkin DEAD, except the “night life” around Main Street and the Carnegie Center.
Chinatown itself looks half empty.
I walked by the WoodWards project..same thing,,the look of the Grim Reaper for RE….two huge towers in behind nearing completion but looking like tombstones. The YaleTown hi-rise towers looked like Xmas trees, scattered lights on, but majority were dark. The COSMO site stood abandoned except for the ad signs.
Quite surreal. There was a short pulse of street life after the Canucks game ended, but in many ways I felt like I was walking through a cemetery in what should be a “lively hip urban” area .
Then ,of course, took a shortcut home up Quebec Street and saw the dark foreboding City Olympic Village. Ouch !
December 23rd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
.Bulls are equal to Entrepreneur our profit is a reward of handling or managing any assets or debt but bears can’t do it without being bulls.Would you like to be a bull?
I would say just back off! you don’t really need to buy anything just grab a front row seat to watch forth coming mob in high definition.
Now everybody repeat
“Big Dumb labourer lose all his money!”
Yeah yeah and I drink my chai tea no money I have anymore and I become homeless
December 23rd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
“I know the buildings are all covered by a warranty now but they won’t be in a few years”
I have found something very common almost 100% of the warranty departments operate on the premise of “lets keep it working, until the warranty expires”. They find many failed or non functioning systems and the general instructions are to ” make it work” as opposed to fix it. I would know because I am the guy many strata’s call on takeover wondering why everything breaks down a few months after warranty expires. It’s a great business but the workmanship and haywire repairs I see made by the warranty departments disgusts me!
December 23rd, 2008 at 12:42 pm
You definitely have talent, arit.
I like the 1st & the last, no-more-numbers & stuck-in-trailer pickpocket monkeys. $=O
December 23rd, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Hi All,
I am flattered that you guys like it! My first published cartoon…
The inspiration came from my (funny: he is a genius by any other standard) coworker who was telling me last year “Van RE never goes down”, and now I hear him saying “I always claimed a 25% drop”. The change of tones is astounding.
Nolympics: It’s not copyrighted, feel free to abuse it any way you wish.
Best regards
arit
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:58 am
Is it true that the City awarded the Olympic village to the highest bidder Millenium?
The province awarded the ferries project to the highest bidder in Germany and they are lemons
http://thetyee.ca/News/2008/11/18/Ferries/
the VCEC boondoggle
http://preview.tinyurl.com/9wkfvl
the soon-to-come Gateway project
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:36 am
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/2.....2008122310
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:35 am
Olympic village developer given hotel default notice
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....hColumbia/
QUOTE:
” VICTORIA — The developer behind Vancouver’s troubled Olympic village project is on the verge of losing a $44-million hotel contract in Nanaimo amid growing doubts about the company’s ability to secure financing” .
In essence, it appears that Nanaimo (which, like Vancouver, also has political turnover at the last civic elections), is cutting its losses.
Do you get the sinking feeling that Millenium Development is simply buying time re-arranging the deck chairs .
Prediction: Vancouver taxpayers….be prepared for a fiscal black hole sh*tstorm when Millenium goes down.
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:29 am
The projections just keep getting worse into the future. Will little Vancouver escape unharmed? Maybe we can get BCTV to call them that we’re the best place in the world and have them take the nasty recession away.
http://www.marketwatch.com/new.....C8C951F%7D
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:28 am
Arit:
Well Done, my compliments :
A picture(or cartoon ripped off of Darwin theories )is worth a thousand words.
Bob Rennie wants to buy this original work of art:
PS Can we print T Shirts …..or is it copyrighted?
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:25 am
Numbers out of the US keep getting as the new data comes in. If you though that Oct and Nov were bad.
http://www.marketwatch.com/new.....0318B81%7D
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:23 am
318 Dave , sorry dave the taxes are all bundled into whats called a ‘millrate’. And no taxes are not ‘frozen” geez I wish. What do you think, that theres some kind of best out of three system?
http://www.nationalpost.com/ne.....id=1106721
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:07 am
A colleague and I were talking about people in general and were getting frustrated trying to rationalize their thinking. This was in general not just in real estate. We came up with this:
Rule #1: People are stupid.
Rule #2: Revert back to Rule #1.
There is simply no use in trying to educate the ignorant. There is no point in arguing with them. The best thing to do is position yourself to take advantage of them, as callous as it sounds, you’ve got to look out for #1!
So, to put it in RE terms, let bulls bullsh*t each other. Don’t buy their crap. Let them go out and buy. One day they will be humbled by this. Yet, they still won’t put the time and dedication in to learn what went wrong and why. Why? See Rule #1.
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:05 am
Bdk,
Buying properties means being bulls and selling properties means being bears that’s why bears always lose and bulls always win.Selling property at right time over the list prices is a reward of being bull.
December 23rd, 2008 at 11:02 am
The amount of municipal tax is not directly related to assessment values. The amount you pay is relative to the value of everything else. If everything falls in value by the same percentage, then taxes are unchanged.
In any case, 2008 assessments have been frozen to their 2007 values.
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:58 am
sorry 15 % 16 are mine
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:56 am
And PS cavepeople, because Vancouver and GVRD councils have aggresivly increased costs based on property appreciation this is whats going to happen here soon enough. The last thing these bozo’s will do is rationalize the budget. So, be prepared for big tax increase all around. Tax assesments are going to go way down and this will squeeze city budgets to the point where they will tell it’s necessary to increase taxes
http://www.washingtontimes.com.....new-taxes/
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:44 am
#11, feel free to join all the other entrepeneurs on Craigslist desperatly trying to unloadn their presale contracts at a loss.
BTW I prefer the original term for entrepeneur in the 18th century before entrepeneur found it’s way into the lexicon. The term used by Adam Smtih in “Wealth of Nations” was ‘Luftmench’ or literally ‘airman’.
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:39 am
Watch Nobody lost all his money in High Definition.
Ever seen a caveman cry?
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:37 am
Vanzee,
Look at the picture on this thread it could be helpful to understand step lader designed by Arit.
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:29 am
RE#11
I don’t understand your post.
What point are you making?
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:23 am
White Mocha Frappucino Tall Grande Venti:Yeah On January 2006 i was thinking to buy third property conclusion comes to buy presale,next day a co-worker come to me secretly told me blah blah project is being released today,I did request my manager to go home early without telling him the actual reason as pre plan was to grab a cappucino and reach in line before 6pm. because nobody can get in line after six and nobody can leave more than five minute after 6pm. for next 16 hours otherwise you can’t get back in line.it was great experience had to leave a sick call message from line next am almost 120 people were loughing to hear what i am doing anyway it was great purchase,I am not going to lose anything.Bulls are equal to Entrepreneur our profit is a reward of handling or managing any assets or debt but bears can’t do it without being bulls.Would you like to be a bull?
I would say just back off! you don’t really need to buy anything just grab a front row seat to watch forth coming mob in high definition.
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:11 am
arit – I love it! Great job on that!
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:01 am
Agreed #8
Especially if you end up with a paranoid schizophrenic as a neighbour!
The realtor fees of $20k just to move out of a place that cost 3 times as much every month in mortgage payments.. and all for the pride of ownership?
So is now a good time to buy Dave? Seriously why are you still here? Can’t you play DND like the other tools that hang out in coffee shops all day and live with their Mum’s?
December 23rd, 2008 at 9:53 am
Re: 5
This is why one should never buy into a strata property. Too many unknown unknowns when buying one of those wasting “assets”
Rent it instead for 1/4 to 1/3 of the monthly cost banking the rest. Fast forward a few years and you’ll have a healthy downpayment for a sfh.
As an added benefit of renting, one can easily move when one encounters brutally noisy neighbors, mold, and un-solvable security problems. I’ve encountered all these problems in “better” buildings downtown. When the time is right, I just pack up and move. Its a snap!
December 23rd, 2008 at 9:51 am
“Or, how about not? Anybody qualified to make such an assessment would not be so stupid to start such a thread.”\
Well we know the only thing Dave is qualified to do is be wrong!
December 23rd, 2008 at 9:28 am
from the Bloomberg article:
President-elect Barack Obama on Dec. 13 said he will develop plans to limit foreclosures and “dramatically increase the number of families who can stay in their homes.” One tenth of U.S. families who own a home are in financial distress, Obama said.
…a political solution awaits
in BC the province could enact legislation
forbidding price drops and “low ball” offers….
this would create a floor price for existing housing stock and encourage more building to satisfy
all the “pent up demand”…..
December 23rd, 2008 at 9:25 am
How about a thread on which buildings were actually built to last and not for “short term profit”
Or, how about not? Anybody qualified to make such an assessment would not be so stupid to start such a thread.
December 23rd, 2008 at 8:52 am
Merry Christmas Bitter Renters!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....=worldwide
“Sales prices for existing U.S. homes fell the most on record in November, tearing a deeper hole into households’ already tattered finances.
The median resale price fell 13 percent from a year before, to $181,300, “probably the largest price decline since the Great Depression,””
Substitute Vancouver condo owners (not home owners, strata title to a building is not a home)
December 23rd, 2008 at 8:45 am
How about a thread on which buildings were actually built to last and not for “short term profit”
I know the buildings are all covered by a warranty now but they won’t be in a few years and many strata’s void them anyways by failing to follow the maintenance plan provided by the consulting engineer.
Just a random thought since even tools like Dave & Mike Stewart can’t argue anytime in 2009 will be a good time to buy anything as an investment, if there is even one buyer out there who really does want to leave his Mums basement for the glory of strata titled property ownership…..
December 23rd, 2008 at 8:35 am
great post..you said nothing but said it all
merry christmas vancouverites
December 23rd, 2008 at 7:12 am
I’m #1 I tink therefore I KNOW