Friday free-for-all!
It’s time for our end of the week open topic discussion and news round up. Here are a few links I’ve notice lately:
-Vancouver Real estate sales grind to a standstill
-November: More houses sold in Edmonton than Vancouver
-Food bank gears up as layoffs begin
-BC house price predicted to keep rising (March ‘08)
-New Quotes have been archived in the Wiki Quote-tracker
-Canadian bankruptcies jump in October
-Concord Pacific chops down trees, then gets permit
-A question of priority: City residents or Vanoc?
-Taxpayers will pay extra security cost for torch route
-US style housing collapse could cost tax-payers plenty
-Vancouver prices dropping faster than US bubble cities
-Bay Area House $348k in 2006, today $79,900
-Victoria sales hit nine year low
-Saving money by shutting down the government
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links, thoughts, predictions and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
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browntown Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
oh yeah nutslaps! look for bear panic in 09 with mortgage rate plunge and gov reflation wave! all bull news banned for this week from pope post! browntown numb #1
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Garth Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
In the last thread people were talking about how prices are dropping on a lot of things. My question is this: how can I go about getting an optimal cash deal on a new car?
I see all sorts of ads for “0% financing” or “we pay your first x months” or whatever. I’m not interested in that. I want to write as small a cheque as possible for a new Toyota (no GM for me, ha!), and just drive away with no more obligations.
Any suggestions?
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Lily pad Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
In 1995 someone told me he went in to a GM dealership with $7000 cash and came out with a brand new Sunfire. I had just leased one for 3 years at $250/mo. which added up to $9,000 and the payout after the lease if I still wanted to buy it would be $10,000, so at that time I learned about the value of cash.
Good luck!
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Drachen Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Garth
Test drive and give them your contact info (don’t give them too much contact or you’ll be pestered ’till the end of time). Make them an offer that is 10-20% below blue book. If they won’t deal walk away. Odds are they’ll contact you soon, if not go to a different dealership and offer 5% more than your last offer, same deal.
Honestly though Toyota isn’t as pressured as some others. Mazda might be more into cutting good deals right now.
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Lily pad Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Garth said: “(no GM for me, ha!)”
I agree. Never before had I driven such a piece of junk.
I since owned a Mazda protege (loved it) and now, a Mustang GT convertible low-rider (talk about zoom, zoom, zoom!)
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Mold City Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
That Bay Area house is now selling for less than the $104,000 drop of the Benchmark Vancouver house price from May to November. Talk about a price-drop shopping spree, you can now get a house in southern California with the money you’ve saved by not buying at the peak. Anybody else getting tired of the Vancouver winter climate?
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wizardofozziejurock Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
The Wiki Quote-tracker if fantastic. Great work everyone!
I have a feeling that this is important work that will have significant implications as this thing unfolds.
I particularly have my sights on the CMHC. Their staff routinely fail to provide disclaimers when making market projections…which I believe is a breach of their fiduciary duty as an underwriter of mortgages. As in:
- The CMHC is willing to underwrite my mortgage.
- This makes me eligible to obtain a mortgage.
- CMHC officials forecast rising house prices with no disclaimer.
- This leads me to be more confident in proceeding with a purchase.
- Equals breach of fiduciary duty.
- Which provides grounds for individual or class action lawsuits when house prices fall and people incur financial losses.
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patriotz Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
That Bay Area house is now selling for less than the $104,000 drop of the Benchmark Vancouver house price from May to November.
That house is in the “hood” in Oakland and I’ll bet you anything the previous sale was mortgage fraud.
I once attended a sporting event at the Oakland Coliseum nearby and after it finished they had policemen standing every 100 feet from the exit doors to the Coliseum BART station. No fooling.
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stagnate Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
buying a car- make sure you let the salesman know that you want documented proof that you are paying the lowest price of the year (you actually want to see their sales data). they’ll balk at first but then will come back to you. indeed mazda would be a good call.
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VanTOVan Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Re: That Bay Area house. Did you notice that in the pics, all of the plumbing has been ripped out?
What would the Vancouver condo equivalent be–foreclosees taking off with their precious granite counter tops?
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The Pope Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Hey Browntown – are you that beat-poet dog from the Lynda Barry comic? Post some bullish news links and I’ll consider adding them, the most recent one I could find was that prediction of rising BC house prices from back in March.
Can you find any more recent gems like that one?
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Anonb Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Garth, the ONLY way to buy a new car is using the Fool’s approach: http://www.fool.com/car/car12.htm
Pick your model. Get the dealer’s cost from carcostcanada. Fax/email every dealership within 100km with a specification of the car you want from carcstcanada, and ask them to bid for your business. Take all the good bids and tell them they are still in the running for your business, but they need to do better and cut their prices.
Your second round of responses will leave you smiling since they will be within spitting distance of the true dealer cost.
I basically got within a couple hundred dollars of true dealer cost. Works like a charm, and saves tons of time and stress to do it all from home.
Good luck!
Now if I can re-work this scheme to buy a home in a couple years
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Patiently Waiting Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Are there any downsides to buying a car entirely with cash?
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Anonb Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Downsides to cash for a car? Yes, possibly, manufacturers have promotions which may be rigid and a bit irrational. For example you might have a choice of 1000$ off or a zero percent loan for 60 months. So grab a calculator, and decide if you are better off sticking your money in GICs or taking the cash discount.
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gadwin Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Hey everybody, just a reminder that the detached benchmark DROPPED $104,725 from its peak in May and it is still dropping. In fact, in the last two months, the detached benchmark has roughly DROPPED $60k.
Buying now is like catching a falling knife … except you won’t be catching a butter knife, YOU’LL BE CATHING A RAZOR SHARP MACHETE.
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patriotz Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
What is a zero per cent loan worth to you? It’s worth the present value of the interest you didn’t pay. But if you have cash it’s the after tax return on the cash you didn’t spend. So let’s say 3%,
For a purchase price of 30K total interest at 3% amortized over 5 years works out to about $1500 and the present value will be less, about $1300 I think.
But the cost to the seller of the interest-free loan is the interest rate they have to pay, which is a lot larger. It’s really costing them about 10% off the purchase price, so they really should offer 10% off the price for cash. Why don’t they? Because they are trying to disguise price drops.
The problem for the cash buyer is that if it’s the manufacturer who’s taking the hit on the “free” financing, the dealer can’t offer you an equivalent discount for cash.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/popcalc2.asp
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Richmond Rich Renter Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Downsides to cash for a car? Yep, when you take money out of the bank to buy a car, the money is tied up in car and no longer working for you – meaning: not earning interest in savings – so you’re losing approx. 3% per month. So keep the money in the bank and take the zero interest rate financing offered by the dealership. Make the car payments. You’re not paying any interest this way, just earning it!
As for Mazda – be careful. Theives know that when you kick the driver’s side door just below the handle, the door will pop open. Usually just Mazda 3’s but I’ve seen dents on almost every model. Pretty much 90% of all Mazda 3’s in town have the dents. Unless you have a garage, aren’t parking downtown or dont’ mind paying out your deductable a few times a year, go ahead and buy the Mazda. Sharp looking cars – too bad for the flaw. The dealer won’t tell you until you have a claim, then they try to reinforce it with a metal bar inside the door. Even then, thieves don’t know which has been updated and which hasn’t …so they just kick the door harder.
For my money, I would go with the car that offers the biggest bang for the buck and the best warranty. if you hate domestics, why not try Mitsubishi? Their cars are stylish and have a 10 year warranty (best in the business). They usually offer 0% on selected models in either Jan or Feb. Just check the Mitsu Canadian website to see what they have for offers.
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Anonymous Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 12:17 am
I’m really concern about this coalition government plot. It’s nothing but a power and money grabbing scheme by the NDPers and their welfare chums, Liberals and their old boys club. They all knew that there are plenty of opportunities to profit from this economic chaos.
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Anon Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 12:36 am
fucking CMHC- I did not mortgage my future so they did it on my behalf as a Canadian citizen, taxpayer and consumer of Canadian government services. Maybe I should just pack and go some other place
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patriotz Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 12:57 am
It’s nothing but a power and money grabbing scheme by the NDPers and their welfare chums,
Hm. Well Stockwell Day seems to be your kind of guy. If it’s good enough for him, why not the other parties?
Bloc part of secret coalition plot in 2000 with Canadian Alliance
“OTTAWA — The separatist Bloc Québécois was part of secret plotting in 2000 to join a formal coalition with the two parties that now make up Stephen Harper’s government, according to documents obtained by The Globe and Mail.
The scheme, designed to propel current Conservative minister Stockwell Day to power, undermines the Harper government’s line this week that it would never sign a deal like the current one between the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Bloc.”
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Anon Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:10 am
The problem is not in separatism. The problem is that the nation just voted for something and before this something could be implemented the losers are trying to change things. Furthermore, the reason for it is because they want to borrow money and give it away. And in the process of any giveaway some people will benefit and some wont, and some people will be deciding who will benefit… This is all very wrong on many levels- we should not be borrowing, we should not be giving money away even if we had it, and people’s votes should be respected a bit more even if democracy is not the ideal form of government.
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Brittanny Originals Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:26 am
Prediction: Unemployment hits 15% + before the end of 2009.
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Western Separatist Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 3:34 am
I second the recommendation of carcostscanada.com. Steller website that’s worth every penny you pay for the quotes.
Last vehicle, I built my truck online, test drove it at a local dealer, than emailed and faxed every dealer in Alberta. I just kept grinding until I had nobody left who would go lower than the next guy.
Once I had the all-in price nailed down at the dealer of my choice, only then did we start talking about how I’d pay for it.
Following patriotz’ logic, I asked whether cash would get me a discount. Nope. Same price even if I took the 0%/3 years financing.
OK, I’ll take the cash flow.
The dealer was about 300 miles out of town. They drove it right to my door and I signed the papers at my kitchen table.
It’s no wonder
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freako Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 6:42 am
Thanks for re-linking to the Pastrick’s folly. It should not be forgotten.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 7:01 am
Autos and Choices:
A Modern Parable.
A Japanese company (Toyota) and an American company (Ford Motors) decided to have a canoe race on the Missouri River Both teams practiced long and hard to reach their peak performance before the race.
On the big day, the Japanese won by a mile.
The Americans, very discouraged and depressed, decided to investigate the reason for the crushing defeat. A management team made up of senior management was formed to investigate and recommend appropriate action.
Their conclusion was the Japanese had 8 people rowing and 1 person steering, while the American team had 7 people steering and 2 people rowing.
Feeling a deeper study was in order; American management hired a consulting company and paid them a large amount of money for a second opinion.
They advised, of course, that too many people were steering the boat, while not enough people were rowing.
Not sure of how to utilize that information, but wanting to prevent another loss to the Japanese, the rowing team’s management structure was totally reorganized to 4 steering supervisors, 2 area steering superintendents and 1 assistant superintendent steering manager.
They also implemented a new performance system that would give the 2 people rowing the boat greater incentive to work harder. It was called the ‘Rowing Team Quality First Program,’ with meetings, dinners and free pens for the rowers. There was discussion of getting new paddles, canoes and other equipment, extra vacation days for practices and bonuses. The pension program was trimmed to ‘equal the competition’ and some of the resultant savings were channeled into morale boosting programs and teamwork posters.
The next year the Japanese won by two miles.
Humiliated, the American management laid-off one rower, halted development of a new canoe, sold all the paddles, and canceled all capital investments for new equipment. The money saved was distributed to the Senior Executives as bonuses.
The next year, try as he might, the lone designated rower was unable to even finish the race (having no paddles,) so he was laid off for unacceptable performance, all canoe equipment was sold and the next year’s racing team was out-sourced to India .
Sadly, the End.
Here’s something else to think about: Ford has spent the last thirty years moving all its factories out of the US, claiming they can’t make money paying American wages.
TOYOTA has spent the last thirty years building more than a dozen plants inside the US. The last quarter’s results:
TOYOTA makes 4 billion in profits while Ford racked up 9 billion in losses.
Ford folks are still scratching their heads, and collecting bonuses… and now wants the Government to ‘bail them out’.
IF THIS WEREN’T SO TRUE IT MIGHT BE FUNNY
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 7:04 am
Another sign of the times ?
Honda and Audi have announced they have pulled out of Formula 1 racing. They wish to concentrate on their core business.
Ouch!
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Lily pad Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 7:23 am
Could the number of dealerships also affect profits? I don’t know about Ford, but GM has 5.5X more dealerships than Toyota in the US:
“G.M., for example, has about 6,700 dealers in the United States, compared to 1,200 for Toyota (the disparity is even greater when franchises are counted — G.M. dealers operate 14,000 franchises for its many brands, compared to 1,600 franchises for Toyota).”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12.....f=business
Now I understand why the salesman was so happy last spring when I bought my mustang. He literally jumped up and hugged me with glee! I didn’t realize I had done something so spectacular just by purchasing a car.
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Lily pad Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 7:27 am
Sorry about the nyt link. Google
“Big Three May Need to Trim Number of Brands”
if you are really interested in reading the article.
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Lily pad Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 7:44 am
I forgot to say that the market shares for GM and Toyota are equivalent — approx. 20% each.
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Anonymous Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Scullboy: If you’re interested, Roundel Cafe, 2465 E Hastings, is in urgent need of a cook. Great people, great crowd, recession proof, very foodie but not pretentious, 9 am open so none of those 5am start times (shudder). Eclectic, inclusive and artsy. My fave brunch place.
Many “high end” restaurants are NOT recession proof, same for $100 for a basic haircut places. Funeral directors and divorce lawyers should be safe, and anyone supplying reasonably priced things everyone needs.
Oh, and repo men should be busy!
WBWYCmovetheafterpartytotheRoundel:
They will open an evening for a booked event, they have Crannog beer on tap, and they are great!
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Alexcanuck Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 7:58 am
#30 is me
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Sorry to rain on the parade, but No ONE career is recession proof.
Laws of Supply and Demand still kick in.
In a recession ,…People will cut back to absolute bare minimum, or flood the job market for those jobs deemed recession proof, and then a ” dutch auction” of how low one will go to keep a job OR obtain a job may start to kick in .
The daily news is making it abundantly clear that the Big Companies do not have the cash reserves (or are burning through them quickly )to weather a storm and especially this perfect storm which is crucifying the global economy. That makes medium and small firms as vulnerable if not moreso.
Gov’ts will have an even toughter choice…given many of them , especially here in BC ( Province of BC and Local Gov’ts ) have signed contracts with public servants to buy labour peace now and through the 2010 Olympics. Unless mistaken , the public sector unions chose wage increases, but not job guarantees(not that a job guarantee really exists). Time will tell how secure these public sector jobs are, but they shouldn’t feel very smug either.
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michael Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 8:21 am
RENNIE SPEAKS….
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12.....amp;st=cse
Ill let the forum comment on this one…
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Vantarded Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 8:23 am
I swear I have lost all faith in humanity. A couple of my co-workers have exhibited such ideas that have me completely stunned. Can you say denial?
First – One laughed when I said the word “crash” when describing what we are in for. I just shook my head and left. The last few years have taught me that these sheeple aren’t worth my time.
Second – Another made the prediction of bottoming out in June/09 with housing rebounding after that. Why June? Only God knows why. Dead cat bounce perhaps?
They’re not stupid people just uninformed and in serious denial. People really don’t understand money and what has just happened. Totally oblivious to the amount of artificial wealth/debt/money that has been taken out of the system.
——-
In other news, I saw that foreclosures are on the rise in Vancouver. 76,000 jobs lost in Canada. 500,000 plus lost in US. Nothing to see here, this is just what a slight, shallow correction looks like. Pfft!
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Tony Danza Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Finding Bob Rennie:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12.....1&_r=1
See if you can wheres waldo everything wrong in this article. My favourite? Comparing Seymour street to Madison Ave. in new york.
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emile Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Question:
The Real Estate Board News release says that for Van West prices for attached houses went down 19% Y-O-Y. Could any body tell me what is the change from the peak? Something like 25% ?!?!?! In 7 months ?!?!?!
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:12 am
Vantarded:
Sounds like the proverbial prophet that preached to the sheep, was ignored ( if not outright ridiculed ) , got frustrated, and then wiped the sheep dust from off their feet and moved on. (Unless they outright shoot the messenger !)
People can be very frustrating…they ” somehow ” take and invert/pervert one’s generosity in an advisory capacity into a personal attack on “them and their comfort zone”.
I’m sure we have all had those moments, but in my view it is too widespread . There must also be a primal denial mechanism in the masses that has morphed into a Stockholm Syndrome where those that dispense the kool -aid to the
sheep are treated like saints and saviours.
Unfortunately, the sheep fail to see that they become a major part of the problem with their denial , ignoring the blatant writing on the wall, and continued kool-aid drinking, certainly not any part of any positive solution.
Unfortunately, the only solution is the judgement day-like abyss they drag the rest of us down into…then we all start over staring at a long hard climb out.
PS: Just make sure they don’t slip any of their kool aid into the punch at the Xmas party.
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blueskies Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:25 am
re: NYT article
i noticed nothing was mentioned about the homeless…..
and also wondered why the American was selling his Harbour Green unit…..
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blueskies Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Those prices began to slide only recently, influenced by the downturn in the American economy. “You guys sneeze,” Mr. Rennie said, “and we get a little bit of a cold.”
a cold?!
no mr. rennie not a mere cold… more like a colonoscopy with a roto-rooter……..
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Turkey Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:34 am
The new rules: In order to own in Yaletown, you must have an abysmal sense of direction and distance. (Not to mention timing and value.)
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Tony Danza;
Awesome digging on that Rennie story !
After reading it…I thought Jim Jones “bought it” in the head about 30 years ago…(Y’know…dark hair, glasses..clean shaven..kool aid, sheep followers.. ahhhhhh it’s Bob R. !!!!
I thought Rennie has a little smarts and would STFU and lay low…but now he’s moved the RE circus and trying to lure Americans(step right up !) by being the lead interview in this NY Times article on Vancouver RE which is really an infomercial ??
QUOTE:
“There has been a lot of construction going on in Vancouver in preparation for the Games — and beyond. After the Winter Games, the 16-building Olympic Village, which will house about 2,800 athletes, is to be converted into a 730-unit luxury condominium complex called Millennium Water. About half the units have already been sold, Mr. Rennie said”.
TRANSLATION:
–come buy Vancouvers most OVERpriced condos
- shore up Fortress Group (a US company)before it goes broke
- help head off an Al Qaeda faction of pissed-off Vancouver taxpayers soon to be stuck with the Millenium cost overruns
QUOTE:
“A two-bedroom, 1,113-square-foot condo on the fourth floor of a Millennium Water building on Ontario Street was listed last month for 855,900 Canadian dollars ($673,937 at 1.27 Canadian dollars to the U.S. dollar). Three one-bedroom units between 584 and 686 square feet in a building on West First Avenue were listed at 464,900 to 505,900 Canadian dollars. It is possible to put 10 percent down”.
TRANSLATION:
–the old ” see how much more your $ US dollars can buy again in Canada with the Canadian dollar $ tanking
– 10% down? they will take anything !
QUOTE:
” Although it is only 35 miles north of the border, Vancouver looks and feels different from any city in the United States or, for that matter, Canada. With its glass-and-steel towers crowding a sweeping harbor, it could be in Asia”.
Translation:
It “could” be in Asia ? ROTFLMAO
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:44 am
In the NY Times article with Bob Rennie
They note
QUOTE:
According to capitolresidences.com, all 372 suites have sold, for prices ranging from 320,000 Canadian dollars for a one-bedroom place to more than 640,000 dollars for a two-bedroom with a den
Anybody got some stats n capitol
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mflat Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:47 am
AM I THE ONLY ONE
who heard the Rennie infomercial on CKNW last night??? It was absolutely disgusting – a sales pitch full of lies, talking about “solid fundamentals” and encouraging people to spend money and keep the economy moving.
It ended with a little spiel how next time at a cocktail party YOU have to be the one to end the “NEGATIVE SPECULATION” and talk about something else.
I almost hit the car in front of me!!! Hasn’t anyone else heard this?!?!?!?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Re post # 42:
(Error I wasn’t finished..clicked too soon)
QUOTE:
“It’s very easy to go places — just a little drive to go up to the Rocky Mountains, and a little south to go to Vancouver Island,” said Paulina Chan, a resident of Rumson, N.J., who bought a one-bedroom apartment in the 40-story Capitol Residences under construction in downtown Vancouver after selling her one-bedroom apartment in the Yaletown section last year. According to capitolresidences.com, all 372 suites have sold, for prices ranging from 320,000 Canadian dollars for a one-bedroom place to more than 640,000 dollars for a two-bedroom with a den.”
QUESTION: Anyone got any RE stats on the Capitol Residences ? (ie flippers on Craigslist, etc.)
“Sold” does not equal “completed sale ” or not assigned to specuvestors.
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Matticus Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:55 am
I had a beer last night with an acquaintance who works in the construction industry for one of the larger residential high-rise contractors in Vancouver. He manages half a dozen of the company’s project sites and is involved in the planning / management of the firm. The firm has grown by 40% per year over the past five years.
Apparently the company is fully booked through the first three quarters of 2009, but after that the work falls off completely. And I don’t mean slows down, I mean they have ZERO new business lined up, with apparently no leads / irons in the fire. This is a company that was booking projects more than two years out and couldn’t find enough people to fill positions only several months ago. We ran into each other about three months ago and his attitude / outlook at that point was very different; it’s gone from “things will slow down, but not too badly” to “things are looking very, very bad”.
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Kuroame Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:56 am
“The problem is that the nation just voted for something and before this something could be implemented the losers are trying to change thing”
Aren’t the “losers” in this case, collectively, the winners? Most people (54%) voted LIB/NDP/BQ, the Cons only got(38%).
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Burden of Proof Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:01 am
“AM I THE ONLY ONE”
I heard that Rennie commercial too. At the end of it, an announcer comes on and says something like “CKNW, Keeping our economy strong.”
Real estate pumping by a self-interested salesman now passes for a public service announcement on CKNW.
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Burden of Proof Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:08 am
“The problem is that the nation just voted for something ”
Yes. Over 60% of the nation voted agaist Harper. Why should he have power? Please explain.
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mflat Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:08 am
AM I THE ONLY ONE
WTF does Negative Speculation mean?!?!? I think Rennie needs to be introduced to the concept of economic realities and fact-based fundamentals.
I hope he suffers a long, painful, humiliating fall from his lofty perch.
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Tony Danza Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:10 am
#35 is NOT me, please get you own handle!
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Misha Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:16 am
I was reading the Georgia Straight this morning and had a chuckle over the ad for The Block townhouses on the back page. Starting “in the high five hundreds”! Does anyone know anything about this development? I can’t see them getting those prices, especially with the Sofia complex struggling just around the corner.
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Not Tony Danza Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Computer autofilled your name, didn’t notice. Deep breaths man, everything is going to be alright.
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Absolutely Not Tony Danza Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:27 am
This is anecdotal, but a realtor is knocking (cold knocking?) on peoples doors in North Van this week and asking them if they want to sell their home, as if any North Van residents are incapable of contacting a realtor on their own if they decide to make that oh so important life decision.
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Peter Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:28 am
High 500s now eh? if you drive by their site, the banner on the fence still says from the High 600s. When this first went up, I almost sprayed coffee all over my dashboard.
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Dissenter Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:37 am
To Koruame:
Nobody voted for a LIB/NDP/BQ “bloc” as you imply.
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scullboy Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Hey No-Lympics
Nice parable but if the Americans and Japanese had rowing races in canoes neither would win because YOU CAN’T ROW A CANOE, STUPID!
You paddle a canoe. You row a boat. The person who steers a boat is a coxwain, not a “steerer”, you cox a boat, not steer it, it’s a crew, not a team and the crew is made up of oarsmen (or women).
I mention this because you seem like the type to use that kind of bullshit in chain letters to make some kind of faux profound point. so you should really get your facts straight.
Otherwise they’re all going to laugh at you, just like Carrie White.
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dingus Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:47 am
“The problem is that the nation just voted for something and before this something could be implemented the losers are trying to change thing”
1. The “winners” only obtained a minority and are insisting on governing as if they have a majority. The fiscal update was a deliberate provocation to take advantage of an opposition with a lame duck leader. Bare knuckle politics on Harper’s part. And whaddya know, the geek in whose face he was kicking sand managed to land a solid right hook. Surprise! But he had it coming.
2. Constitutional convention is that the party that obtained the most seats and has the confidence of the house gets to form government and appoint the PM. Here the Cons no longer have the confidence of the house. And the coalition now has the plurality of seats, not the Cons, and they have the confidence of the house.
3. Though there is authority for this, it is weak because a) they didn’t run as a coalition, and b) they accepted the throne speech, so have expressed confidence in the house initially.
4. But the prorogation option is very bad too. A PM shouldn’t be able to suspend govt simply to avoid a non-confidence vote.
But it is pretty rich to watch Harper, the grand strategist, having to run away from a fight with Dion and Layton. He must be eating his frickin liver.
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patriotz Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Nobody voted for a Conservative minority government either. They voted for MP’s. A majority of MP’s have the right to form a government. Period.
There are countries where people actually vote for parties rather than MP’s – they have proportional representation. Under PR the NDP, Liberals and Greens would be able to form a majority all by themselves because together they got over 50% of the vote. Is that what you’d like to see?
re: NYT article
i noticed nothing was mentioned about the homeless…..
and also wondered why the American was selling his Harbour Green unit…..
It’s an advertising supplement, in case nobody noticed.
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BBY Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Here’s my simple analogy regarding the denial about RE fundamentals over the last few years.
The majority of the people looked at 2 + 2 and were told that it was 22. It’s obvious. It’s 22. 2 + 2 = 22 became very, very popular. It is self-evident that 2 + 2 = 22. Many then proceeded to make decisions based on that math. The few retards that claim 2 + 2 = 4 are ridiculed and met with mocking derision. Everyone knows that 2 + 2 = 22.
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Mold City Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:10 am
It’s an advertising supplement, in case nobody noticed.
Exactly. Not the sort of place you want to mention all the things that Vancouver is #1 in:
#1 in North America for Property Crime!
#1 in North America for Overpriced Property (Forbes)
#1 in HIV (Downtown Eastside)
…and now
#1 in real estate price plunge!
We’re number 1! we’re number 1!
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Kuroame Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Dissenter: “Nobody voted for a LIB/NDP/BQ “bloc” as you imply.”
Actually they did. The majority of voters cast their ballot for a representive that is now calling for a coalition. By voting for an MP you are basically voting for everything that MP votes for during his or her term in office. Even if the voters disagree with it now they still voted for it. Maybe we need a more direct form of democracy but that’s not the issue at hand.
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BBY Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Perhaps my 2 + 2 = 22 story is really analogy of the Vancouver RE Zeitgeist.
Well Zeitgeist, prepare to meet Schadenfreude.
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Re-diculous Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:19 am
mflat #43
Burden of Proof #47
Approximately what time did you hear this Bob Rennie ad? I’ll attempt to go through the CKNW audio vault and retieve it.
Sounds like our boy Bob is getting a little desperate….perhaps all that off shore money isn’t flowing quite as fast as it was.
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Aleks Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:21 am
“Under PR the NDP, Liberals and Greens would be able to form a majority all by themselves because together they got over 50% of the vote. Is that what you’d like to see?”
I would love to see some form or proportional representation, or at least something like instant run-off or single transferable vote. It’s much more democratic.
“Another made the prediction of bottoming out in June/09 with housing rebounding after that. Why June? Only God knows why. Dead cat bounce perhaps?”
A lot of people can’t look at the larger market without thinking about what it would mean to them personally. And when they think about a crash or even a slow decline they realize they would be tens of thousands of dollars in the red, so they convince themselves it won’t happen. Denial is pretty common in all areas of life. Unfortunately the market doesn’t care about the consequences for individuals, it’s going to correct because it needs to correct.
Convincing people who only have 10% equity or less that the market can and will correct by 30% or more is nearly impossible. They will not listen to you. Because on the one hand you have people saying that they will be able to ride their home to riches, and on the other hand is you telling them they could go bankrupt.
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ted Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Can anyone find an MP3 or WAV file of that CKNW rennie ad and post it in the wiki?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Scullboy:
Y’see….One should honour the “original integrity” of the wisdom or the art form passed down and in doing so not play editor/revisionist.
Otherwise,classic art like the Mona Lisa may have bigger knockers painted on and maybe even a tattoo with political slogans .
If the minor details in the parable are one’s focus, and burr in their saddle, and the main message of the parable is not grasped , feel free to do an editing job.
No hard feelings…in fact, I have a bunch of vintage K-Tel cooking utensils /devices to lend/lease/sell you in order to assist you in your oft – acknowledged raison d’etre of chef du cuisine.
PS You live on a boat right ? row the canoe or paddle the dingy ?
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mflat Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:40 am
mflat #43
Burden of Proof #47
Approximately what time did you hear this Bob Rennie ad? I’ll attempt to go through the CKNW audio vault and retieve it.
Sounds like our boy Bob is getting a little desperate….perhaps all that off shore money isn’t flowing quite as fast as it was.
It was approximately 6:20 to 6:35 pm on December the 4th. That’s about the time I left work yesterday.
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ant Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:48 am
Holy *@$#! One in ten Americans with a mortgage are now at least a month behind in payments:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28069420/
That’s across the nation – totally insane. I wonder if we’ll get to that point here, I know some people who are getting pretty stretched in Vancouver..
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Skye Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:52 am
That post above about no construction booked after 2009 Q3 is telling. I know several families that rely on construction jobs to pay their mortgages. When those jobs are lost it’s going to be bad, very very bad in 2010. Hold on to those hats!
Then again, maybe New York engineers with condos all over the world will just buy all our condos because Yaletown is so close to the Rockies and Robson St is world class.
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Anon Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
#48:
>> “The problem is that the nation just voted for something ”
>> Yes. Over 60% of the nation voted agaist Harper. Why should he have power? Please explain.
Burden of Proof, if you have 100% vote split between a number of parties and one of the parties gets more votes than any other, then the number of people who voted AGAINST this particular party is smaller than the number of people who voted AGAINST any of the other parties.
So, following your negative vote logic, the answer to your question is that Harper should be in power because he got fewer votes against him than any other leader.
Does it answer your question?
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Anon Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Rennie on CKNW: go to cknw.com, audio vault, Dec. 4, 6:00pm, it plays at 22:30 in. It will live in infamy.
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Kuroame Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Has Bob Rennie taken a page right out of the Osama Bin Laden playbook? Is he living in the tribal regions of Waziristan-olumbia right now, having his taped pronouncements slipped through some secret courier network to his sympathetic cohorts at CKNW?
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Misha Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
@Peter (#54): Wow! I can’t believe that represents 100K off the original price. Another 100K and maybe I’ll take a look.
On another note, I’d like to add this story to the roundup:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12.....ouver.html
Seems like Bob Rennie is selling Vancouver real estate in the New York Times now.
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Re-diculous Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Thanks Anon#71, here’s the complete transcript of the ad:
Bob Rennie: “Hi, my name is Bob Rennie of Rennie Marketing Systems. The world tilted, and we didn’t fall off. You and I live in the best place on the planet, Vancouver and British Columbia. As we look forward to 2009 and beyond we have all the underlying fundamentals for recovery. You’re still going to shop, you’re still going to go out to dinner. And maybe you’ll be the one to change the topic when the conversation turns to negative speculation”
CKNW: “Vancouver’s economy is working ….this holiday season, keep it strong. A message from CKNW”
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Bob Rennie Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
My only complaint about CKNW is that I never get to sit down while I’m there b/c everyone’s nose is in my ass.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Article Re: Coalition
” Future of coalition, Dion’s leadership uncertain “.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story.....rties.html
A ” socialist, a nerdy professor and a separatist ….” sounds more like the start of a JOKE , not a coalition.
I ROTFLMAO re comments directed at Harper as afraid of losing his job. This coalition has now literally guaranteed his job security.
What this 3 stooges coalition did (or threaten to do )was within the rules , but so was Harper’s counterstrategy in his request to the Governor General . Tit -for- tat…whats the problem? Rules work BOTH ways.
The coalition took an “all or none” chance with consequences if they failed …and it failed miserably.
I think the Coalition have ultimately placed Harper in a Win – Win situation.
The permutations and combinations to create a majority amongst the current federal parties are numerous,(or even amongst the MP’s ) and include Harper cutting a deal with ONE of the other parties to ensure a majority. That can also include MP’s crossing the floor and shifting any/all existing balance.
I saw this more as THE issue was job security being maintained for the Coalition leaders and their own MP’s , they simply wanted to ride the gravy train of public funding for their own parties so their own parties would exist and thus their own jobs as MP’s still exist.
These people don’t want to have to go out and face the real world, and moreso now . For someone like Layton to tie his horse to “loser” Dion who was getting his own pink slip as Liberal leader shows desperation by Layton, but nothing even remotely resembling leadership or the Canadian public’s best interest.
I hope someone drains that Coalition kool -aid bowl soon. Lets roll the dice again and force an election ( which would likley create a great purge amongst the Coalition parties and they all know it now,if not before ) …or the Coalition can STFU.
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read on Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Rennie is fast taking over the mantle of amusing denial so long held by the inimitable Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf, aka Comedic Ali.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M....._al-Sahhaf
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Van-zee Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Who cares what Rennie says it should be pretty clear it’s all bunk. If anyone is going to read that puff piece and believe it they are welcome to do so. I’m simply not surprised anymore at the level of denial nor the lack of credibility in the MSM around real estate issues.
Most of the MSM missed the boat completely on the dangers of the massive credit bubble by selling real-estate as a lifestyle issue. I’ve seen so little journalistic inquiry or investigation around the housing/credit issue it just makes me sad.
The online world and regular people have done more to inform me that the MSM could ever hope to do.
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markx Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Hey, given the Capitol Residence’s relatively recent presale date, I would expect buyers to walk away from presale deposits. Wasn’t the W deposit spread over a couple years, with 5% at signing, and total of 20% before completion? If that’s the case, there is VERY strong incentive for speculators to walk away, after recent plunge in market price. Anyone has data/rumour/memory about the presale deposit structure? Seems like Rennie is stuck with a few units in Capitol where the buyer couldn’t cough up the scheduled deposit, and he’s trying to find more suckers in NY to help his commission cheque clear.
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mflat Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Can we please add that Rennie garbage to the Wiki? I can’t believe that CKNW will hold their name to it. I’m disgusted enough that I no longer care to listen to 980 AM. It’s ridiculous that such biased bullshit can be aired under the guise of a public service announcement.
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Anon Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Guys, regarding post #70 above I don’t understand why you are voting it down, please explain. The “voted against” logic is the typical political spin tool used to manipulate public opinion. 60% did not vote against Harper because the vote was not against anybody, it was for something. For example following this logic the fact that somebody voted for carbon tax would mean they voted against NDP and everything they stand for, so it is entirely wrong to put these 60% together and say that the coalition represents their interests. How many of the guys who voted for carbon tax would have Harper as their second choice as opposed to NDP- is this number really equal to 0 as Burden of Proof implies?
The post was about the fallacy of saying that “everybody who did not vote yes voted a no”. Is this community really subscribing to this logic?
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mflat Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Alright, since I’m going on and on about it, I’ve capped the audio and put it on a share website for everyone to download. It’s 1/4 of a megabyte, and 30 secs long.
Cheers.
http://www.zshare.net/audio/5231132872242807/
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Kuroame Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
off topic a bit but; why is “Socialist” used by some Canadians as a negative term? As an American transplant I find it disturbing that many Canadians are starting to talk like members of the NRA back home. It’s like everyone has been sitting in their igloos watching FOX news all day. Do those people actually think health care in Canada should be privatized, because, in case they didn’t notice, its SOCIALIZED. Or maybe education – who needs a good education if your parents can’t afford it anyway. What about law enforcement and national defence – I’m sure Blackwater and KBR could handle those for you.
Canadians should be proud of there SOCIALIST history, without it Rick Mercer would have made his fame with a show called “Talking to Canadians”. Also if you don’t the ghost of Tommy Douglas will come and haunt you and your family for all enternity.
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bearette Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Partly as a result of Vancouver’s appeal to Americans, real estate values nearly doubled between 2001 and 2006, Mr. Watt said, with typical single residences rising to a price of nearly 650,000 Canadian dollars and apartments and condos rising to about 400,000 dollars. Those prices began to slide only recently, influenced by the downturn in the American economy. “You guys sneeze,” Mr. Rennie said, “and we get a little bit of a cold.”
More like we get pneumonia!
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Kuroame Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Bob Rennie: “Hi, my name is Bob Rennie of the soon to be defunct Rennie Marketing Systems. The world tilted, fell on its ass and is engulfed in flames and we didn’t fall off- it fell on us. You live in hugely over-priced highly leveraged homes in the best place on the planet, Vancouver and British Columbia and I have fled the province and will live in prosperity thanks to the ponzi scheme that put you in your 352 sqf of paradise. As we look forward to 2052 and beyond we have all the underlying fundamental stupidity for a recovery. You’re still going to shop for a bankruptcy lawyer, you’re still going to go out to dinner and offer to wash the dishes to pay. And maybe you’ll be the one to change the topic when the conversation turns to negative speculation by flipping the table with the christmas meal on it over and screaming “I’m ruined!! shut up you bastards!”
CKNW: “Vancouver’s economy is barely working ….this holiday season, Buy a bong. A message from CKNW”
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mflat Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
#85 HA!!!
That was excellent!
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jesse Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
“The post was about the fallacy of saying that “everybody who did not vote yes voted a no”. Is this community really subscribing to this logic?”
Good point Anon, however maybe they’re voting it down because it has little to do with Vancouver condos. Personally I think #70’s point is valid. I sure didn’t vote for a coalition. If I knew that’s what they were going to do I probably would have changed my vote. The Conservatives are up in the polls so it looks like I’m not alone.
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J Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
“Buy a bong”.
Golden.
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Anonymous Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Text and MP3 of the Rennie CKNW ‘Public Service Announcemnent’ added to the wiki:
http://vancouvercondo.info/wik.....ng_Systems
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
” Negative speculation ”
Pronounced: ( neh-gah -tiv speck -EWE -lay- shun)
In the new Oxford Dictionary 2009
Negative speculation (colloquailism /idiom)
(English)
Originated in Vancouver , originally attributed to Robert(Bob) Rennnie
—on par with Sam Sullivans “Ecodensity”
—often applied to Real Estate
Meaning: assuming or predicting the worst ,as opposed to the opposite.
In Economics : When the sh*t hits the fan/ reality bites
NOTE: Term ” Negative Speculation ” is considered derogatory in certain social , professional and economic circle.
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khoek Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Anyone see this on the news?
http://canwest.a.mms.mavenapps.....ct=3265700
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Erik Estrata-Fee Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Rennie says change the topic when conversation turns to negative speculation? To hell with that. I’ve been waiting eight years to talk real estate with friends. Finally people are open to serious talk.
FYI, the BEST OF 604 awards are on and Condohype and Vancouver Condo Info are nominated!! Now that’s my style of negative speculation! I sure know who I’m voting for.
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Lily pad Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Good luck to Rennie with his idea of telling people NOT to talk or think about something. It is going to backfire on him bigtime. When anyone hears that commercial they will think “What is negative equity?” and then start thinking and talking about it.
Ok, a little test here.
Try really hard not to think about a white elephant.
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Anonymous Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Anyone see this on the news?
http://canwest.a.mms.mavenapps…..ct=3265700
A $700,000 apartment in the Wall Centre and the guy could only afford a VCR! LOL!
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Lily pad Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
I changed my mind after actually listening to the commercial. First of all, his voice is not very clear — and the message that comes through is that Vancouver is special and we are somehow tilting in the opposite direction of the rest of the world?
Do he and CKNW really think people are that stupid? When all they hear on the media these days is about layoffs and crashes?
Everyone I know would either ignore that message or just think gag, wtf? It just does not make any sense. The first thing you think is: “That guy is delusional”.
The only thing the commercial has going for it is the upbeat music, but coupled with the message the commercial provides nothing but confusion.
What a mess that guy has created for himself. I really feel sorry for his soul.
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patriotz Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
“…And maybe you’ll be the one to change the topic when the conversation turns to negative speculation”
CKNW: “Vancouver’s economy is working ….this holiday season, keep it strong. A message from CKNW”
Let’s not have any doubt what the real message is here.
“If you don’t keep buying condos, you’re letting the NDP win”.
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VHB Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
“And maybe you’ll be the one to change the topic when the conversation turns to negative speculation”
I’m a little late to this party, but anyway here I go.
This is truly pathetic. I wish I had time to properly put into words the scorn I feel for this man. His downfall will be very sweet to watch.
Bob: the blogger was right. You and the other 999 people were wrong. And I’m luvin it.
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patriotz Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
But Rennie is a professional shill. That’s his job.
It’s the people pretending to be performing a “public service” that deserve the real scorn – yes that’s you CKNW, Bill Good, Michael Campbell, Tsur Somerville, Helmut Pastrick, CMHC, etc, etc.
And let’s not forget the people who put “the best place on earth” on the license plates. That was no accident.
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scullboy Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
No- Lympics
Thanks, but my kitchen’s equipped with Le Creuset cookware and Shun knives. Come to think of it if you’ve been cooking with vintage teflon, it would explain a lot.
And if by “boat” you mean “penthouse apartment with a 370: views from English Bay to Mount Baker” then yes dear, I’m living in a boat.
Good lord.
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mino3 Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
I walked by l’Hermitage building on Richards/Robson and it still says “15 opportunities remaining”.
It’s been saying that for months.
They haven’t sold a single condo in the whole building in the past few months? Crazy.
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Re-diculous Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
response to Bob Rennie:
Bob, you little turd. For the last four years I had to endure countless conversations at social settings where people brag about the increasing value of their real-estate, and yet you and CKNW were not suggesting that the topic should be changed when the topic of “positive speculation” came up. Now the shoe is on the other foot….how does it feel?
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blueskies Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
What a mess that guy has created for himself. I really feel sorry for his soul.
ummm he sells RE
he has no soul
see: Faust
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jesse Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
“It’s the people pretending to be performing a ‘public service’ that deserve the real scorn”
Yeah the ones that do half-assed research yet are touted as “experts” when they have so obviously got it wrong will need to go to purgatory and write a “Why I was wrong” essay.
Remember, though, the media willfully went to these guys for supposedly unbiased opinions without doing due diligence. Perhaps the media needs to try harder to find alternate points of view.
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Tony Danza Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
It’s the people pretending to be performing a “public service” that deserve the real scorn – yes that’s you CKNW, Bill Good, Michael Campbell, Tsur Somerville, Helmut Pastrick, CMHC, etc, etc.
Don’t forget, or let anyone you know forget, what these fools were up to when the line ups form for a bail out. I’m thinking specifically of that Realwhore Robyn Adamache and her disgusting display of shillery in this whole debacle. When the shite really hits the fan you know the taxpayers will be saving her useless job.
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Mold City Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
I didn’t see this posted here yet, Dave Watt did an ‘op-ed’ piece in the Vancouver Sun about how our housing market collapse is not the same as the US market collapse:
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
Looks like a good source of quotes for the wiki, some real gems like this:
It almost reads as comedy.
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patriotz Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Since 2005, prices in the U.S. have been edging downward owing in large part to imprudent subprime lending practices.
Oh yes, the REIC Big Lie, the US RE bust was caused by “imprudent subprime lending”, which is just code language for “lending to darkies”.
Let’s hear from someone who was right about RE south of the border all along:
“The reason prices are falling is because of gravity,” Thornberg (pictured here) told the Register after delivering the UCLA Extension Real Estate Forecast at the Skirball Cultural Center in Los Angeles. The run-up in home prices over the past decade was “ludicrous,” he said, noting that the increase wasn’t accompanied by a comparable increase in income.
By Thornberg’s math, a typical Southern California house payment equaled about a third of its owner’s gross annual income in 1999. By 2007, it equaled about 70%. “That’s why prices are coming down. They have to come down.”
http://lansner.freedomblogging.....rice-drop/
70% eh? Where else have I heard that number?
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MickeyFinn Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
The real motive behind Bob Rennie’s public service announcement??
A special attribute of many real estate developers is that they’re frequently also big gamblers.
Who hear remembers Robert Campeau? Or the Reichmann family?
Robert Campeau made an massive fortune in real estate development and then blew the entire thing on Federated Department stores (Bloomingdales). He gambled and lost.
How about the Reichmann family? Olympia & York made them some of the wealthiest investors in Canada… but gambling on Canary Wharf humbled them.
The same can be said for major real estate developers all over the planet. There have certainly been some notorious “flame-outs” in Hong Kong and other parts of Asia. The pattern repeats… the developer is successful and begins to believe that he/she can do no wrong… they invariably bet the farm on the next, biggest and best real estate development project and then BAM they get toasted by an economic downturn.
So what does this have to do with Rennie? Well, he may have started to think he was bullet-proof. He may have gambled and “bet the farm.” More and more, instead of just being a salesman, Rennie was becoming a partner in the developments he was marketing… he was mutating into a developer.
My guess is that now, with the Vancouver market tanking, he may be looking down the barrel of some serious financial hurt. Unless the real estate economy here in Vancouver can magically bounce back he just may be getting toasted. Of course it won’t bounce back… it can’t, because Vancouver real estate has lost it’s lustre for the time being. Vancouver real estate participants have lost confidence.
And without confidence, you can’t keep selling stainless steel dreams at prices that are simply uneconomic.
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MickeyFinn Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Who hear? Who here. It’s a homonym thing.
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Lily pad Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Sing-a-long time with Mike Mish Shedlock courtesy of one of his bloggers named Stonewall.
50 Ways to Beat Deflation. One, two, three
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7608.html
Maybe Canadians can learn from the ineffectiveness of throwing good money after bad from our neighbours to the south.
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Lily pad Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Mish’s latest interview on Howestreet.com
http://www.howestreet.com/audiovideo/
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Burnaby Bear Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Rennie now has a column in BC Business magazine.
His latest column is here: http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca.....launch-pad
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Lily pad Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Guess who made Number 7 of Vancouver Magazine’s 50 Most Powerful of 2008?
http://www.vanmag.com/News_and.....age=0%2C14
His Worst mistake? Caring.
No sh*t.
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Lily pad Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
I found this video over at the Alberta Housing Blog posted by a guy named GUY who said it reminds him of what Trudeau did to our generation. Hmmm. Interesting connection.
http://tinyurl.com/5rj9ya
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patriotz Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 12:11 am
Maybe Canadians can learn from the ineffectiveness of throwing good money after bad from our neighbours to the south.
It’s too late to learn, the good money has already been loaded into the cannon though CMHC insurance.
Thanks for the 0/40, Steve and Jim.
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Lily pad Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 12:20 am
Maybe Steve and Jim regret the 0/40. Maybe that’s why they don’t want to throw more money away with bailouts and stimulus packages.
It still doesn’t give them an excuse for trying to cut the legs off of their competition by trying to change democratic process via a budget, but I’m just saying they may have learned something from their 0/40 mistake.
Or, maybe they’re just being like Rennie and think their biggest mistake was caring too much.
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patriotz Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 12:45 am
0/40 was not a “mistake”. It was a deliberate attempt to juice the economy to secure them a majority in the next election, just like cutting the GST. They failed because the house of cards fell down faster than they anticipated. Now the recession for Canada will be worse than it need be because of these wrongheaded moves.
In 2006 the global housing bubble had already been called by a number of very prominent sources, and to claim that the Cons were acting innocently is just absurd. They were deliberately trying to extend the bubble.
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Lily pad Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 1:00 am
Patriotz: I agree with everything you said. Obviously I would not be a very good politician. I don’t think that way at all but once it’s pointed out to me voila! It all becomes clear. Thanks for setting me straight.
Why then wouldn’t the conservatives want to put a stimulus package in the budget? Was that supposed to be another chess move or was it based on economic responsibility?
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patriotz Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 1:15 am
Because they have damaged the federal fiscal position so badly, they can’t afford any stimulus. The fact that the savings rate was declining during a time of economic growth meant that the GST should have been increased, not decreased. Both to strengthen the fiscal position and to discourage consumer debt. Similarly the 0/40 means losses ahead for CMHC which the federal government is obliged to cover, and even more consumer debt.
The Cons spend two years shooting into the air in a drunken party and now that the bear has arrived they don’t have any bullets left.
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Lily pad Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 1:30 am
Oh, I see. And because the conservatives had made a pre-election promise not to go into deficit that they strategized a bailout/stimulus pkg in the budget would be too soon. They could no longer pretend the economy was hunky dory after they won the election, but they weren’t ready to start the pay-outs to their banker and manufacturing and auto industry friends. Now that it has been called for by the coalition — party away like the USA!
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patriotz Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 3:17 am
There is no optimal course of action because it has been sabotaged by the irresponsibility of the last two years. I am not claiming that the actions proposed by the Liberals are the best thing to do. What I am saying is that if the government had taken advantage of two years of good times options would have been available to deal with bad times. The prospect of a housing-induced recession, which had already been predicted by the time the Cons had taken office, was willfully ignored.
If a government is not capable of of anticipating or preparing for bad times, why should anyone have any confidence that it is capable of dealing with them when they arrive?
And on another topic, the Olympics can no more have a deficit than… you know…
“VANCOUVER — As stock markets dive, companies go belly up and economic fears stalk the land, overseers of the 2010 Winter Olympics have revised their budget, and the new document is full of sober reminders that what seemed fiscally fit just six months ago is no longer so buff.
The result – to be unveiled before the Vancouver Olympic Organizing Committee’s blue-ribbon board of directors on Tuesday – is designed to ensure that the biggest peacetime event in Canadian history keeps its financial head above water. The proposed budget contains a significant increase in VANOC’s original, $100-million contingency fund to prepare for economic dangers ahead, and serious cost-cutting to pay for it.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....m_mostview
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streel Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 5:43 am
Her advice: ‘Sell your house’
Mortgage broker is telling some clients to move now before it’s time to renew
http://tinyurl.com/57×9mc
Thought you might enjoy this from the Herald in Halifax of all places, this is nowhere near the subprime paradise that Vancouver is. “Please move along, nothing to see here”.
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Keepin an Eye on the Pimps Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Streel, nice link,
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Business/1094474.html
“Since the subprime market peaked in 2007, the majority of subprime mortgages will not come up for renewal for a couple of years.
Mr. Tal, who is based in Toronto, says that he thinks subprime mortgage holders in Canada will have to pay significantly higher interest rates or they will not be able to renew. Many won’t be able to afford the new rates”
Interesting on a couple of fronts:
The pimps have always denied we had subprime, and as in the USA, when they did finally acknowledge the subprime time bomb, they said it was a minor part of the mortgage market it would not have significant impact, should some of it go sour.
Fast forward, now in the US they are using subprime as a scapegoat,when in fact subprime is a symptom of the bubble,and not the cause, although it did contribute to keeping the bubble afloat a little longer,just as the 0 down kept it afloat here a while longer, but just like the law of gravity can be suspended for a while, it can not be repealed.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Re: RE collapse ….Blame the Tories ?
The Tories have been in power since early 2006, less than (3) years.
The bubble was building for years prior.
The Feds do NOT have control over the supply of product ie condos. That is a function of your own Local Gov’t. If there is no product, the funding effectively means nothing .
If the Local Gov’ts do not change their OCP’s and allow for the flood of product…then the market achieves more stability.
Vancouver actually double – dipped by increasing density for the private sector and took a gamble of its own with the Millenium project.
Too many Local Gov’ts simply went absolutely nuts in this development orgy. It became a game of either keep – up OR one – upmanship, with Vancouver as the lead dog ( probably in fear of losing its title of ” King City ” to Surrey ). They have now created a black hole that will suck the real value out of property for years…we haven’t seen anything yet.
IMHO, The blame lies moreso from the Bottom up, not the top down.
============================================================
Drove through a bit of a “development” guantlet last night…from South Granville right down to West Hastings. Granville near 41st had some completed projects and another from Concord still working on the ground floor ( I think this was once the Eden Groups site before they bailed)
Downtown…..along Burrard, all sort of projects past the point of no return…still working on the lower floors. You have to wonder what goes on in these developer’s minds….the market has tanked but can they stop? It’s like building one’s own coffin.
Drove past the Wall Center and smirked with the recollection of the Global News feature about that Foreclosure where the owner basically abandoned the condo and left everything .
” Which one is it ?, I thought. ”
Others who bought in there must have cringed when the story was made public…the story basically said “Wall Center condos… 30 % off O.B.O. ”
The icing on the cake was looking up at the Shangri- La,….I could NOT beleive it…. from my view corridor, I think I only saw 2-3 lights on in the tallest building in Vancouver, it looked absolutely abandoned.
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john Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Now that the coalition has been defeated I’ve been getting lots of calls from sellers of downtown condos. They didn’t want to sell because of the crisis. Now that prices are going up again they’ll sell thankfully. I’ll probably buy a few more for quick flips. Should be fun.
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 9:49 am
MISTER GOMES: A LIGHTWEIGHT SAYS:
Gomez said the correction that markets are experiencing doesn’t yet account for the real impacts of job losses and other effects of B.C.’s and Canada’s slowing economies.
He also says the beginning of Vancouver’s housing decline has been much steeper than in U.S. markets such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego.
MISTER SOMERVILLE: LIGHTWEIGHT(SHOULD GET A GROWN MAN’S JOB) SAYS:
Somerville conducted his own analysis of Vancouver prices earlier this year that compared the cost of buying a house versus the cost of renting a similar unit. He concluded Vancouver real estate was 11-per-cent overvalued
MIS ADAMANCHE: LIGHTWEIGT EMBARRASSMENT SAYS:
Adamache’s forecast is for a nine-per-cent drop in 2009 compared with 2008, assuming B.C.’s economic situation does not worsen
“Other analysts, however, suggest prices in B.C.’s real estate markets could continue dropping until they’ve knocked 25 to 30 per cent off peak prices seen early in 2008.”
MISTER DAVE WATT, I DON’T BELIEVE A WORD HE SAYS, BUT I RESPECT THE FACT HE DOESN’T HIDE HE IS A PITCHMAN SAYS:
Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said markets started to turn when some in the market could no longer afford to buy
http://www.vancouversun.com/Ho.....story.html
DO A GOOGLE CHECK WHAT THESE EXPERTS WERE SAYING A FEW MONTHS AGO.
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Lily pad Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Well, I would say that the de-regulation in the mortgage industry also had an effect when GMAC started to offer subprime mortgages to Canadians in 2003.
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-.....amp;EDATE=
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Lily pad Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:16 am
My last post was in response to the conversation with Patriotz and No-lympics about who is to blame for the housing bubble.
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patriotz Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:34 am
The causes of the housing bubble in Canada are the same as in the US – idiot buyers, loose lending, and government policies that enabled them. The details vary, but the themes don’t.
As I have posted previously, the cause of the RE collapse is the high prices themselves. Period.
The Cons are not guilty of creating the bubble – it was well underway when they took office in 2006 – but of deliberately extending it by introducing the 0/40 insurance at a time when any sane policymaker would have tightened up on lending. Without this move the bubble would have begun deflating at the same time as in the US, and the bust would have been smaller in scope and have left less damage to consumers, financial institutions, and government.
I was stunned by the bust of 1981-83 and was sure that I would never see anything like it again. I am now convinced that the bust now in progress will be worse. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
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Lily pad Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:46 am
As per Streel’s article, if the 5-year term mortgages taken out in 2003 are starting to re-set in Halifax, that means they are starting to re-set here in Vancouver, too.
More fuel for the fire.
Although, as VHB has stated before it is not the subprime loans that are responsible for the crash, it is unaffordability:
http://vancouverunrealestate.b.....tions.html
However, I would maintain that unaffordability was caused by subprime mortgages, overbuilding, and pre-sales that all fueled “positive” speculation.
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Alexcanuck Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:57 am
I was stunned by the bust of 1981-83 and was sure that I would never see anything like it again. I am now convinced that the bust now in progress will be worse. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Well said as usual, Patriotz.
We need a bust on the scale of the GD to get regulations and policies in place strong enough to prevent the scale of bubbles we’ve seen lately. And to teach the sheeple a strong enough lesson about the danger of debt to accept those regulations, and save, live prudently, avoid speculative activity, create a prosperous society that can raise a new generation who don’t have a TERROR of debt, but just a healthy caution.
And that happy generation are still safe, but they will raise the next generation who dismiss the grandparent as fuddy-duddies, and the parents as boring, embark on a new spree of borrow and spend partying, bailing out every bubble with a new and bigger one, never looking at the foundations of their grandiose house of cards until it culminates in, well, NOW!
Wash, rinse and repeat.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 11:15 am
” Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it” .
I’ll add to that “the devil is always in the details.”
I seem to recall the boom to bust in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s was based on domestic policy, more self inflicted grief in and amongst Canadians with little external influence. It wasn’t sustainable and that internal bubble burst.
Then came Expo 86.
We now had serious external influence to the RE market.
The whole dynamic changed…the domestic market , at least in BC , had to compete with global “offshore” competition.
It basically tanked once Hong Kong was ceded to Mainland China
Then the run up to 2010 and the same RE boom cycle
If you read a few articles…many of the big RE players have gone behind the scenes and convinced Gov’ts to put on these Roman Circuses to start the RE run -ups. Georgia Straight had a good article recently of how Jack Poole at a meeting of his development peers, has a master plan back in the early 2000’s to start the RE run up, and the 2010 Olympics was key. Whistler is just an excuse for the Public teat to get milked to fund improved infrastructure for development along the same route.
Another article mentioned that VANOC’s John Furlong actually once worked for one of the biggest developers (C. Chan?)who has a lot of land holdings along the Sea to Sky highway.
I think the writing was on the wall since the early 1970’s….that many Gov’ts at least here in BC, rolled the dice that the RE industry would sustain us. RE became its own Roman Circus…more like an orgy.
Our resources are hooped…ie No Fish….collapse in Forestry ..Commodity prices too unstable….manufacturing goes offshore… Hi – Tech( EA? whopppeee !!! )
So the $64,000 question is ……with the RE collapse… NOW W-H-A-T ?
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exx Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 11:18 am
I’ve been looking around the new Port Moody developments since this Spring – back then the cheapest units were over $320K. Since that time, the majority of them were slowly dropping in price, but refusing to go below $300K.
Now there are a few under $300K, including this unit V745815 which was just listed for $269,900! In June, 6 months ago, a very similar unit (3 sqft smaller) in this building, on the same floor with only 1 parking spot and a view of other buildings, was $338,300 – I still have that open house sheet.
That’s a loss of nearly $12,000/month for 6 months, and this is just the beginning! I don’t know about the rest of you, but having my 5 years worth of saving for a downpayment become completely meaningless in 6 months just might make me cry.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Quebeccorner development in today’s Vancouver Sun
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....9aaf63ea8e
QUOTE:
“I think people welcome an option to living in a stereotypical condo tower where it’s very anonymous with no sense of community,” says Doddington, pointing out he lived for five years in a Yaletown condo tower without ever having met his neighbours.
Quebec Corner, with its self-managed strata, will likely result in homeowners getting to know one another and having more pride of ownership, he says, adding strata fees are low and range from $140 to $200 a month. ”
I recall one poster noted this one came under the category of “DOG” property, one to avoid .
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bdk Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
I was told Polygon has canceled all upcoming projects again last night, by someone who works there.
The last time I mentioned this Clam Chowderhead said it was false.
Any comments there clam?
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squidly77 Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
the one thing that we do not learn from history is that we do not learn from history
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Don Lapre Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I still firmly believe that most people have no idea what is in progress and what is on the horizon for the local market. Most friends and associates still parrot the notion that RE prices will be higher at some point in the future, so even buying at the admitted peak was and will be considered a brilliant move in the future. I`m only met with a blank stare when I attempt to dissuade them of this notion. There will have to be a bloodbath before the true magnitude of the bubble is evident to the masses of RE brainwashed BCers.
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bdk Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
V731823 # 1705 1050 BURRARD ST 686.0 sqft. $499,000 Century 21 In Town Realty
V733047 # 1810 1050 BURRARD ST 1068.0 sqft.$499,000
Sutton Grp-West Coast Realty
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J Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
“As seen on TV!”
V733047 # 1810 1050 BURRARD ST 1068.0 sqft.$499,000
Sutton Grp-West Coast Realty
Re: QuebecCorner – why is this exactly a dog, aside from the major problem of being overpriced? If it was say… 2/3rds the price I couldn’t see why it would be unreasonable. Am I missing something?
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RennieWhereRU? Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Somewhat explains why folks choose to bury their head in the sand. The market will bound back in the spring, don’t worry specuvestors.
http://www.theage.com.au/opini.....ml?page=-1
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Yeah I'm a regular Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
“Somewhat explains why folks choose to bury their head in the sand. The market will bound back in the spring, don’t worry specuvestors.”
Actually, it gives me an idea, why don’t we bears, frequent the RE bull blogs, (provided one can be found) and post bullish till our hearts content, so that we can keep the hope alive within the specuvestors till spring?
Keep the finger in the hole to let the dam build more pressure.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Re Post # 134
If the parties that have put their money were their mouth is are WRONG…what does that tell you ?
Aka Polygon (which has been around for a long time ) has various projects in Richmond,
getting close to completion, many in the West Cambie area. They, like others, have seriously underestimated the demand.
Even the Big Boys drink from the kool aid, its not just the buyers.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
To J
Post # 138
Someone(name escapes me) made a comment this week re ” quebeccorners” as their indicator re the RE market, given they frequent the area.
Check this weeks postings for this Web Site……they didn’t recommend it for reasons they laid out.
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Lily pad Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Yeah I’m a Regular said:
“Actually, it gives me an idea, why don’t we bears, frequent the RE bull blogs, (provided one can be found) and post bullish till our hearts content, so that we can keep the hope alive within the specuvestors till spring?”
I have a better idea. Why don’t we all go out an lobby for a Canadian Home Stimulation Program to take care of the oversupply like was given out in the 80’s? I remember people getting $10,000 grants (they didn’t have to pay them back) to buy a home back then. At today’s home prices we should get at least $50,000 per home. Where’s Jack Layton when you need him? Oh, ya. Go coalition, go.
“In the early 1980s the Canadian Home Stimulation Program provided grants to home buyers”
http://www.thecanadianencyclop.....RTA0003865
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Lily pad Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Did you ever wonder how those boomers got their first home?
http://dsp-psd.tpsgc.gc.ca/Col.....sing-e.htm
“At the beginning of the 1980s, three temporary federal programs were introduced to assist middle-income families. The Canadian Home Ownership Stimulation Program provided grants to home buyers. The Canada Mortgage Renewal Plan assisted homeowners in paying the portion of their mortgage and property tax that, as a result of mortgage renewal at higher interest rates, caused their payments to exceed 30% of their income. The Graduated Payment Mortgage Plan helped homeowners to reduce their monthly mortgage payments.
During the first five years of the 1980s, 1.7% of total federal government budget went to housing. During the latter half of the decade, this figure dropped to 1.4%. Of all the program areas of the federal government, housing has had and continues to have one of the smallest expenditures. Most of the decline in housing expenditures during the 1980s was in market housing (e.g. home ownership and rental construction assistance) rather than social housing programs. Over 90% of federal housing funds are spent on subsidizing social housing projects.
In 1986, the federal government introduced its New Housing Directions, which made two changes related to public housing policy. Social housing was directed to households in “core need” (a shift away from mixed-income housing projects), and the delivery of social housing programs was devolved to provincial and territorial governments.”
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Canadian Home ownership back in the 1950’s and 1960’s..
I talk to various parties about those days and how the Canadian Gov’t assisted them.
One party works for a major Vancouver commercial landlord whose Father built a Richmond subdivision. Homes were basically 3 styles, Ranchers/bungalows, split -levels or (2) storey.
This developer had it down to a science almost like US mass produced Levitttown (its own fascinating story seelink below)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levittown,_New_York
The Richmond houses sold on average for about $10,000 , but the builder wa able to sell them for approx $1,000 less(a big discount back them)due to having a very effecient system in place much like Levittown’s
However, the Gov’t came an ” encouraged ” them to charge more..or else the would “embarass” other builders building under the same gov’t program.
Also, re QUALITY
Told by family members re the CMHC inspections of their CMHC homes…inspector went up into the attic and found one nail missing in the framing an demanded it be done before he passed it.
Ah the good old days.
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VanToVan Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
On my way to the wife’s staff party tonight. I sure know what to say if any of that nasty old negative nelly talk comes up:
Bob-Rennie-condopalooza-longtermview-bestplaceever-richAsian-Heylookit’sElvis!
I can’t believe I’m actually looking forward to it. Our financial planner will be there–that turd tsk-tsked me earlier this year because I was “trying to time the market.” (yeah Einstein, let me dollar-cost average my way out of losing 100K on my house in 6 months.)
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blueskies Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
for the truly fearless:
http://tinyurl.com/2rswcf
quality control is job one!
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Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
ONLY FOOLS ARE SELLING THEIR HOMES IN FEAR
“It’s fair to say British Columbia, relative to America and North America is actually faring quite well because Vancouver is fundamentally different than USA and rest of Canada,latest employement report shows that vancouver b.c. is “THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH” otherside every body knows what’s happening south of border while in vancouver it’s been three year of false propoganda by domestic idiots to ruin this city to bottom line but results are totally opposite employement is up,income is up,interest rates are low,MLS Listings are down and Analysts expect the bank to announce a 50 basis point cut on Tuesday, taking the overnight rate down to 1.75%, though money markets were betting it could unleash a more aggressive 75-basis-point chop. with average $60,000 to $70,000 rents for average sfh almost $800 low mortgage payments almost $9,600 per year in total cuts so far.#97 VHB Says:”I am loving it”.Hey VHB stop eating junk food because hey VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN
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Brittanny Originals Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
John blog #124 – Realtwhore, Pimp, Sccumbag
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Anonymous Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Jhon,
Never mind brittanny is liberal since they got humiliated defeat there was only coalition hope remain which recently died when liberals start kicking separatists agent Dion so she is out on lethium.
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Anonymous Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
GM is garbage. Why would anyone buy one? They must the be same stupid people buying real estate right now.
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Anonymous Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Vancouver Real Estate Never Go Down Says,
You are dumb. The market is free falling. HELLOOOOOOO.
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patriotz Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 12:14 am
From the Macleans article:
Christopher Judge is accustomed to turning heads in Vancouver. During the decade-long run of the cult hit TV show Stargate SG-1, which was filmed in and around the city, Judge starred as the muscle-bound alien Teal’c. But when the six-foot-three actor appeared in B.C. Supreme Court in mid-November, amid raised eyebrows from the galley, it was for a role he’d desperately hoped to avoid. Judge, who owns three luxury homes in B.C., faces foreclosure.
Well, so much for the theory the Beautiful People would keep prices at the high end from going down.
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Clam Chowderhead Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 1:22 am
Sorry still wrong, Polygon is still continuing with all existing projects and all those that have been forecasted to start, they are just not working on any projects forecast past those, ie not acquiring new land until they get a better sense of the market.
Most developers are doing the same at this point.
Also in case anyone missed it Concord has signed on to complete Infinity, no word on Sky Towers at this point.
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jesse Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 5:09 am
“Polygon is still continuing with all existing projects”
Of course they are. Why would they want to hold a piece of vacant land? They won’t be able to sell it for a profit for a generation or more. In the meantime, the interest payments keep on coming so all they can do is build and sell as fast as possible.
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patriotz Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 6:13 am
Plus, if they canceled any projects they’d have to give the deposits back and be stuck with sunk costs. Finish the projects and they get to sue the pre-sale buyers if they don’t complete. Pretty easy choice really.
I would not be surprised to see smaller players abandon projects due to financing problems though, a la 1982.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 7:11 am
Re: projects started.
From what many have observed or what has been reported, there appear to be two scenarios.
(i)If the project has had preliminary work done up to , but not including, the start of foundation, ( such as the excavation as the Ritz -Carelton , Jameson etc.) they have stopped the project.
(ii) If a project has started the foundation…its seems to be a ” go ” right through to completion. I have noted a few projects that have started a few weeks ago even when the global economic crisis was already in full swing. However, one really wonders why they are even continuing, given the writing on the wall points to adding more product to an already glutted condo market with literally no buyers . There must be a greater benefit than liability, but that may be simply to avoid breach of contract (wit buyers, contractors, suppliers, )compounded by “hope springs eternal” that the market will turnaround.
The bigger companies ie like Polygon may simply be trying to maintain a stiff upper lip and keep their reputations intact, keep their crews intact, even if they take a hit financially.
I recall the early 1980’s during the MURB days…foundations got poured and then sat for years till they were completed. Seems to be a bit different now.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 7:32 am
Re: Fortress group
” Fortress, the Hedge Fund, is crumbling “.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12.....aAJIuZ/RDA
QUOTE:
When Wesley R. Edens and his partners founded their investment firm a decade ago, they chose a name that evoked unshakeable bastions: Fortress.
But now their stronghold is under siege — and some of its investors are running for cover.
Cracks are spreading throughout the Fortress Investment Group, once a leading player in the worlds of hedge funds and leveraged buyouts. On Wednesday, Fortress’s shares fell 25 percent to $1.87, a new low, after the company temporarily suspended withdrawals from its largest hedge fund. Investors had asked to withdraw $3.51 billion from the money-losing fund, Drawbridge Global Macro.
But Wednesday’s slide was just the latest turn in a long, downward spiral for Fortress. The once-celebrated company has lost 89 percent of its market value over the last year as hedge funds and private equity, once lucrative businesses that helped define an era of unrivaled Wall Street wealth, have crumbled in the credit crisis. ”
PS Vancouver taxpayers…LOOK OUT !
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bdk Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Clam, I think we have the same opinion about polygon.
The infinity project that is complete (13618 100th) is not built well at all. Expect to hear about the quality issues at some point soon! and i’m not talking about drywall issues.
It’s great that Concord is getting on board for what will ultimately be B.C. biggest slum (what do you get when you mix pure speculators with first time buyers in the cheapest development since the bubble started and put them on a strata together? Read lord of the flies).
Youngin family (who took over for jung),Concord and the Bowra group are all in the same building so concord can always hand it off to the bowra group if they don’t want it!
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arit Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Hello Bears/Bull
anectdotal info
Yesterday we visited Aberdeen center, the cradle of rich asians. It just happens that Polygon have opened a new sales center in the mall, next to the dancing fountain, across the Ferrari dealership.
I was drawn to it like a bear to honey. Started reading the ads and saw they have like 8 (!) projects all over the place where they are trying to get rid of properties.
I was approached by one of the few gorgeous sales ladies. Her first question, oddly enough , was “Have you heard of Polygon before”, and I said I definitely did. We didn’t buy a house yesterday.
The sales area was empty, they girls were just gossiping to each other, but I was impressed by the ‘booth/store’. It was big and expensive.
Regards
arit
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Re Recieverships sales
Bowra Group
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....c.php?t=43
Read how some recievers do business.
Surrey mayor Diane Watt and vision for a downtown Surrey may turn into a friggin nightmare given what has happened. An oversupply of condos in bad areas is not traditionally a selling point. (Bad “fundamentals ” ……unless of course Bob Rennie blesses it, then everything changes , right ? Bulletproof granite countertops impervious to free-basing ? )
Their urban renewal vision of the area may have got stopped mid stream where the areas problems still exist…so will this clean up the area? or simply compound the existing problem .
I’ll pass.
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cookie Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Second-hand information (for what it’s worth)…
I was told that Polygon has decided against building any more concrete towers. They’re completing and selling what they have on the books now, but will move away from the pre-sale strategy. They will focus on smaller, wood buildings. Back to the plan of build 20 units, sell 20 units.
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betamax Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 11:52 am
According to the Van Sun:
“Residential building permits plunge 26 percent” in October.
I’m sure November was worse, and that’s aside from all the permits already taken out that they’ll never break ground on.
According to the article, for many developers there’s nothing in the pipeline after current projects are completed in ‘09.
There’ll be a lot of construction types out of work, bidding for reno jobs at low wages and still not getting it. The party’s over.
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betamax Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Also according to the Sun:
The RE Board of Greater Vancouver has canceled its ‘09 conference and trade show.
LOL.
Board president Dave Watt refused comment.
LMAO.
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Vansanity Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Ahh hope…hope is defined as the belief in a positive outcome related to events and circumstances in one’s life. This is a good sign.
Rennie et al are the desperados right now, hoping. Clinging to the last bastion of hope: lies. I welcome it, in fact I encourage it. It’s frustrating on one hand, but the more sheeple who buy into it, the easier this becomes for those of us who won’t.
The BoC has used most of their arrows already. This talk of lower interest rates won’t restimulate the housing bubble. Only people that don’t understand how we got here believe their is hope for the housing market yet.
My advice is to follow Rennie’s BS. Change the topic or even better – pump the market. My favorite line, for people who believe this is a “mini-slump” and that we’re headed for new price records soon enough, is to put their money where their mouth is; go buy some property(ies). If they are so sure, than surely there is no risk associated with such an investment, right?
“Hope is the denial of reality.”
– Margaret Weis
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Van-zee Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
“With REBGV members and prospective sponsors/exhi-bitors currently facing economic challenges, we believe forgoing the 2009 edition of our event is a prudent and responsible measure at this time,”
Good find betamax. I guess they don’t believe in a spring sales bounce then.
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Lothian Vasquez Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
If the B o C reduces interest rates any more than they already have, Canada will follow the US into mass inflation beginning in early 2010. When high inflation hits, private lenders begin jacking interest rates to protect themselves from a depreciating currency. This will kill whatever is left of Vancouver housing for a decade or more to come.
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Lothian Vasquez Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Anybody else hearing informally or otherwise, that real prices for middle of the range West Van properties are now down nearly 25%?
I have heard this now soooo many times I now believe it is beyond anecdotal, and means that even if the “average” drop in the Greater Vancouver area is 14 – 17% so far, the West Van factor is dragging the overall numbers down considerably. I am also hearing that West Van residents have so far been the most willing to delist altogether… for now!
Anybody care to confirm or deny?
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greely Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
CKNW occasionally has a quick blurb on how it wants to hear from “you the listener” to hold the accountable.
I sent them a scathing opinion on their “spend your money like drunken sailors” propoganda crap they are spewing out. They are sounding more and more like an audio version of the Enquirer.
Here is their comments email link. I encourage anyone here offended by their Rennie adds to let them know.
comments@cknw.com
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Matt Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Pope, I enjoy reading the comments on this blog as well as your posts. I’m concerned that as the market gets worse, your comments are going to be seeded with more and more astroturf. We’ve seen dosh/browntown/etc. do it for the past 2 years and now I suspect we’re going to see it a lot more. This friday free for all is full of “WELL I HEARD FROM A LITTLE BIRD THAT CONDOS IN ALPHAVILLE DROPPED 80% IN PRICE…”. Your comment rating system is a good start but I’d like to see baldfaced lies removed. Malicious rumour mongering doesn’t benefit anyone regardless of whether they are bearish or bullish as it falsifies information about the market.
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Anonymous Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I get a kick out of the media calling deflation “dangerous” and a “virus”.
What’s wrong with an economy that rewards the prudence of a saver and
gives your paycheque more spending power? I suspect that the highly leveraged
are the only ones that miss inflation.
Have a safe, prudent, responsible, cash-only Christmas!
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bdk Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
John, are you renting condos now?
This is hysterical, why rent at shangri la when you can rent on no.3 in richmond…
Location: Aberdeen Residence (Cambie Rd & No 3, Richmond – right next to Aberdeen Centre)
1 year concrete hi-rise
2 bedroom + den (can be third bedroom)
Bright South facing unit
Stainless steel appliances, 9 ft ceilings, central air-conditioning
1 locker
1217 square feet
No pets and no smoking
Rent: $3500
AVAILABLE NOW!
Call John at 604-671-1818
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J Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Re: Deflation.
I’m not an economist, but IIRC the problem with deflation is that no capital investments are made. There’s no point for a factory or business to invest, say in new equipment (indeed, spend ANY money), when siting and waiting makes money.
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patriotz Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
That’s not the reason. If the real yield on capital is greater than the real interest rate, that’s an incentive to invest money even if prices are falling.
The reason there is a lack of investment during deflation is lack of consumer demand for the output of capital.
Also, one more time, do not confuse asset price deflation, better known as a bear market, with consumer price deflation. They are two different things,
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Tulip-Mania Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Actually deflation forces productivity. You cut your employee’s wages, or you invest in automation, or you import more from third world countries, and reduce the amount of manufacturing you do locally.
Either way, you know the bus loads of people going to those low paying jobs in Richmond, are going to decline and so will the wages, but not the giant debt load on that leaky shoe box sized condos.
Yeah these poor modern day slaves are Rennie’s victims who listened intently to the Bill Good Show, and used to post bullish posts on Rob Chipman’s blog.
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Lothian Vasquez Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
Deflation is actually a very good thing, to be hoped and prayed for, or, more constructively, brought about as a matter of policy. Money regains value, frugality and productivity is rewarded, efficiency reigns and stability (everntually) returns.
But it ain’t on. Not beyond a little recession/correction-induced asset and price deflation due to end shortly before the recession does and MASSIVE amounts of new digital money makes its way through the pipeline, circa late 09, early 10.
Then, perhaps not hyper, but certainly mass, inflation is the name of the game…
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Tulip-Mania Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Lothian Vasquez, I do see your point, however, what happens if the massive injections don’t work.
So far it hasn’t worked, resources etc are falling hard.
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yaa Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
This is hysterical, why rent at shangri la when you can rent on no.3 in richmond…
Location: Aberdeen Residence (Cambie Rd & No 3, Richmond – right next to Aberdeen Centre)
this building is great if you love airplanes. when the wind is blowing the wrong way, you get to hear airplanes taking off right over your head all day long! though i understand they may have put in “extra-special” glass to reduce the thunder of the old cargo hauling clunkers that take off in the evening… my guess is that this building is popular with hong kong people who long for kai tak, the old hong kong airport, but that’s only my guess…
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Browntown's hero declares a buyers market Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
“Home sales are not keeping pace with the positive economic conditions in BC,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt. “That’s a direct result of a loss of consumer confidence in the overall market. Accordingly, today’s housing market is characterized by moderating home prices and wide selection. It’s definitely a buyer’s market.”
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patriotz Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
It’s not a buyer’s market until the buyer is making a smarter decision than the seller, and we don’t get there until prices stop falling, Davey boy.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Aberdeen ( Richmond condos ? )
Having extended family that once lived a few doors down from Aberdeen …these condos will be under a constant noise corridor.
We used to sit immediately East of Aberdeen and literally read the serial number off the 747’s. The noise was unreal…had to pause betweeen conversations.
For some reason unknown ( though I have heard anecdotally too many times that BRIBES work in Richmond to NOT believe
them ) the City made a single exception to allow a condo development at Aberdeen in that area right under the flight path.
There is not another multi – family development for at least a half mile, only real “advantage”(?) is Aberdeen is adjacent to the RAV line. Err sorry I mean “Crime – train”.
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EB Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
“1217 square feet
No pets and no smoking
Rent: $3500″
Good grief you can rent an entire house in British Properties in North Van for that. A nice house.
But of course I’d much rather have a concrete apartment on No. 3 road. Wishing rent.
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patriotz Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
$3750 / 4br – Fully Furnished Beautiful Executive West Vancouver Home (West Vancouver)
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NoCondoBuy Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 12:04 am
I am really waiting for the Woodward Development to be completed. I think lots of people paid way over for this development given its location and a lot of units don’t have any parking.
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patriotz Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 12:28 am
“W” is going to be a symbol of the stupidity and avarice of this decade in Vancouver, just as another “W” will be a similar symbol south of the border.
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paul Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 6:51 am
#53, Cold Calling is a big part of every good salesmans repetoire. You would be surprised as to how many people can’t make a decision on thier own. As a kid selling real estate decades ago I personally ‘called’ at 200 doors a day and made an adittional 200 phone calls from my office before and after. Selling anything is a numbers game pure and simple. Introduce yourself to enough potential clients and buisness will come your way. I taught many people this strategy in my day and guarantee that it works. Don’t take it personally when someone asked you to buy or sell something, it’s thier business. I got rich in sales and retired at 42. Next time someone knocks on your door you should interpret the effort as coming from someone with initiative as opposed to the lazy failures who send you calendars and crap at holidays. You would be shocked to learn how many deals I worked out using another companies stationary and calendars. Initiative pays and as it pertains to real estate ‘asking for the order’ directly is far more effective than waiting around for the sheeple to pick up the phone and call you. As I said ‘it’s a numbers game’.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 7:19 am
Post # 162
Re: Polygon refocussing on smaller condo projects and avoiding concrete towers.
I was wondering about that givne the RE meltdown … some of these companies still have to keep busy. The problem with the last bubble was that firms feel literally forced to move from their normal bread and butter and compete in a newer high stakes market. This of course, exacerbates the over-supply of these units, and what is the quality of the product by this new competition?….. are they capable of delivering a quality product during their own learning curve ?
Hi – rise construction and supply in any given year used to be a relativey conservative endeavour in any jurisdiction, , but the pace over the past few years was mind – boggling.
I had noticed that when the market was on the upswing, companies like Polygon would tend to assemble approx. 5 acres of land and approx. build 40 – 50 low rise units, usually 3 storey walk walk up condos…the odd apartment condos, but stay around 3-4 storeys.
In a given area, Polygon tended to establish first, probably having a better sense of the market, getting the land cheap…build/sell and then moving on. Their projects tended to be the biggest in a given area . Other developers would then tend to come into the area and pick up and assemble smaller parcels and consequently produce smaller projects.
Future of Hi Rises?
My guess is that the market will turn back to the same conservative supply side. Too many people, both developer and buyers, got burned. I’d hazard a guess that pre-sales will be done far differently if not outright cancelled.
Cities like Richmond had developed a new OCP which has set aside a lot of land in the City Center for hi-rises, but land available for 2-3 storey condos was rapidly being used up. So we will have this conundrum of lots of land zoned hi- rise yet few hi rise projects VERSUS much less land availble for lower density condos, but higher demand given less risk exposure for the developers.
A Hi Rise is an ALL or NONE type of venture when you go vertical..but low rise condos “horizontal” allow for much greater flexibility, ie build in phases, “on demand” etc.
This “build UP not OUT” mantra by City Planners may be due for a radical upheaval in their future focusses.
I would suggest that much land currently zoned hi- rise by idealistic City Planners and greedy politicians will sit undeveloped for years, but many developers will be lobbying for current lands to be RE-zoned to low rise for the reason I have outlined above. Could turn City Planning inside out and upside down, and maybe for the better.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Re Surrey’s Infinity towers
Province story:
http://www.theprovince.com/Con.....story.html
QUOTE:
“We’re certainly delighted to have Concord Pacific finish the project,” Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts said yesterday. “This announcement reinforces our confidence in the strength of Surrey’s local economy.”
The mayor called the Infinity development a “gateway project” for the entire city.
WARNING!!! WARNING!!!! WARNING !!!!use by any politiician of the word “gateway”.
There is something in this for Concord, they didn’t get successful doing charity work.
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betamax Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 9:51 am
“Polygon…usually 3 storey walk walk up condos…the odd apartment condos, but stay around 3-4 storeys.”
4 stories or less means wood frame construction, much cheaper and quicker to build than a tower. Obviously less units, but they can bang them up quicker with less code restrictions, less skilled labour, etc.
When I went to a Polygon open-house, the first question I was asked was if I was buying an “investment property”. Some of those Polygon low-rise complexes are just going to turn into rental slums in the years to come.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Re Post # 189:
Good point,(re: rentals ) but that can be a function of the given strata bylaws. Some stratas limit the number of rentals aka “investment properties” .
Probably best to see what % of units in any strata you may wish to purchase are actually allowed to be rented. In some stratas it is very low.
However, in the RE meltdown, I wonder if both new and old stratas alike already are , or may become ,far more liberal and flexible on the % of rentals allowed within their own stratas, which may have the negative consequences you alluded to.
If you can’t own it AND live in it, the next option is renters.
I highly doubt many of these new condo units which remain empty in ” UNused pristine condition” and collapsing in value by the day, if not by the minute in the RE meltdown , will remain “virginal” for very long.