Welcome!
VancouverPeak.com- jesse and Makaya are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic Sandbox. in the group Housing Data
- jesse posted an update: CMHC starts, completions and under construction in Vancouver […]
- The Ant started the forum topic BC Population Growth in the group Housing Data
- jesse and The Ant are now friends
- jesse and wreckonomics are now friends
- wreckonomics posted an update: New Year, New HPI. ”Selection Broadens and Demand Eases to […]
- Best place on meth and admin are now friends
- jesse and Best place on meth are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic February 2012 Daily Numbers in the group Housing Data
Wordpress theme by Abhishek Tripathi of Mediawick Digital Solutions
December 5th, 2008 at 10:10 am
#35 is NOT me, please get you own handle!
December 5th, 2008 at 10:08 am
AM I THE ONLY ONE
WTF does Negative Speculation mean?!?!? I think Rennie needs to be introduced to the concept of economic realities and fact-based fundamentals.
I hope he suffers a long, painful, humiliating fall from his lofty perch.
December 5th, 2008 at 10:08 am
“The problem is that the nation just voted for something ”
Yes. Over 60% of the nation voted agaist Harper. Why should he have power? Please explain.
December 5th, 2008 at 10:01 am
“AM I THE ONLY ONE”
I heard that Rennie commercial too. At the end of it, an announcer comes on and says something like “CKNW, Keeping our economy strong.”
Real estate pumping by a self-interested salesman now passes for a public service announcement on CKNW.
December 5th, 2008 at 9:56 am
“The problem is that the nation just voted for something and before this something could be implemented the losers are trying to change thing”
Aren’t the “losers” in this case, collectively, the winners? Most people (54%) voted LIB/NDP/BQ, the Cons only got(38%).
December 5th, 2008 at 9:55 am
I had a beer last night with an acquaintance who works in the construction industry for one of the larger residential high-rise contractors in Vancouver. He manages half a dozen of the company’s project sites and is involved in the planning / management of the firm. The firm has grown by 40% per year over the past five years.
Apparently the company is fully booked through the first three quarters of 2009, but after that the work falls off completely. And I don’t mean slows down, I mean they have ZERO new business lined up, with apparently no leads / irons in the fire. This is a company that was booking projects more than two years out and couldn’t find enough people to fill positions only several months ago. We ran into each other about three months ago and his attitude / outlook at that point was very different; it’s gone from “things will slow down, but not too badly” to “things are looking very, very bad”.
December 5th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Re post # 42:
(Error I wasn’t finished..clicked too soon)
QUOTE:
“It’s very easy to go places — just a little drive to go up to the Rocky Mountains, and a little south to go to Vancouver Island,” said Paulina Chan, a resident of Rumson, N.J., who bought a one-bedroom apartment in the 40-story Capitol Residences under construction in downtown Vancouver after selling her one-bedroom apartment in the Yaletown section last year. According to capitolresidences.com, all 372 suites have sold, for prices ranging from 320,000 Canadian dollars for a one-bedroom place to more than 640,000 dollars for a two-bedroom with a den.”
QUESTION: Anyone got any RE stats on the Capitol Residences ? (ie flippers on Craigslist, etc.)
“Sold” does not equal “completed sale ” or not assigned to specuvestors.
December 5th, 2008 at 9:47 am
AM I THE ONLY ONE
who heard the Rennie infomercial on CKNW last night??? It was absolutely disgusting – a sales pitch full of lies, talking about “solid fundamentals” and encouraging people to spend money and keep the economy moving.
It ended with a little spiel how next time at a cocktail party YOU have to be the one to end the “NEGATIVE SPECULATION” and talk about something else.
I almost hit the car in front of me!!! Hasn’t anyone else heard this?!?!?!?
December 5th, 2008 at 9:44 am
In the NY Times article with Bob Rennie
They note
QUOTE:
According to capitolresidences.com, all 372 suites have sold, for prices ranging from 320,000 Canadian dollars for a one-bedroom place to more than 640,000 dollars for a two-bedroom with a den
Anybody got some stats n capitol
December 5th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Tony Danza;
Awesome digging on that Rennie story !
After reading it…I thought Jim Jones “bought it” in the head about 30 years ago…(Y’know…dark hair, glasses..clean shaven..kool aid, sheep followers.. ahhhhhh it’s Bob R. !!!!
I thought Rennie has a little smarts and would STFU and lay low…but now he’s moved the RE circus and trying to lure Americans(step right up !) by being the lead interview in this NY Times article on Vancouver RE which is really an infomercial ??
QUOTE:
“There has been a lot of construction going on in Vancouver in preparation for the Games — and beyond. After the Winter Games, the 16-building Olympic Village, which will house about 2,800 athletes, is to be converted into a 730-unit luxury condominium complex called Millennium Water. About half the units have already been sold, Mr. Rennie said”.
TRANSLATION:
–come buy Vancouvers most OVERpriced condos
- shore up Fortress Group (a US company)before it goes broke
- help head off an Al Qaeda faction of pissed-off Vancouver taxpayers soon to be stuck with the Millenium cost overruns
QUOTE:
“A two-bedroom, 1,113-square-foot condo on the fourth floor of a Millennium Water building on Ontario Street was listed last month for 855,900 Canadian dollars ($673,937 at 1.27 Canadian dollars to the U.S. dollar). Three one-bedroom units between 584 and 686 square feet in a building on West First Avenue were listed at 464,900 to 505,900 Canadian dollars. It is possible to put 10 percent down”.
TRANSLATION:
–the old ” see how much more your $ US dollars can buy again in Canada with the Canadian dollar $ tanking
– 10% down? they will take anything !
QUOTE:
” Although it is only 35 miles north of the border, Vancouver looks and feels different from any city in the United States or, for that matter, Canada. With its glass-and-steel towers crowding a sweeping harbor, it could be in Asia”.
Translation:
It “could” be in Asia ? ROTFLMAO
December 5th, 2008 at 9:34 am
The new rules: In order to own in Yaletown, you must have an abysmal sense of direction and distance. (Not to mention timing and value.)
December 5th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Those prices began to slide only recently, influenced by the downturn in the American economy. “You guys sneeze,” Mr. Rennie said, “and we get a little bit of a cold.”
a cold?!
no mr. rennie not a mere cold… more like a colonoscopy with a roto-rooter……..
December 5th, 2008 at 9:25 am
re: NYT article
i noticed nothing was mentioned about the homeless…..
and also wondered why the American was selling his Harbour Green unit…..
December 5th, 2008 at 9:12 am
Vantarded:
Sounds like the proverbial prophet that preached to the sheep, was ignored ( if not outright ridiculed ) , got frustrated, and then wiped the sheep dust from off their feet and moved on. (Unless they outright shoot the messenger !)
People can be very frustrating…they ” somehow ” take and invert/pervert one’s generosity in an advisory capacity into a personal attack on “them and their comfort zone”.
I’m sure we have all had those moments, but in my view it is too widespread . There must also be a primal denial mechanism in the masses that has morphed into a Stockholm Syndrome where those that dispense the kool -aid to the
sheep are treated like saints and saviours.
Unfortunately, the sheep fail to see that they become a major part of the problem with their denial , ignoring the blatant writing on the wall, and continued kool-aid drinking, certainly not any part of any positive solution.
Unfortunately, the only solution is the judgement day-like abyss they drag the rest of us down into…then we all start over staring at a long hard climb out.
PS: Just make sure they don’t slip any of their kool aid into the punch at the Xmas party.
December 5th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Question:
The Real Estate Board News release says that for Van West prices for attached houses went down 19% Y-O-Y. Could any body tell me what is the change from the peak? Something like 25% ?!?!?! In 7 months ?!?!?!
December 5th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Finding Bob Rennie:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12.....1&_r=1
See if you can wheres waldo everything wrong in this article. My favourite? Comparing Seymour street to Madison Ave. in new york.
December 5th, 2008 at 8:23 am
I swear I have lost all faith in humanity. A couple of my co-workers have exhibited such ideas that have me completely stunned. Can you say denial?
First – One laughed when I said the word “crash” when describing what we are in for. I just shook my head and left. The last few years have taught me that these sheeple aren’t worth my time.
Second – Another made the prediction of bottoming out in June/09 with housing rebounding after that. Why June? Only God knows why. Dead cat bounce perhaps?
They’re not stupid people just uninformed and in serious denial. People really don’t understand money and what has just happened. Totally oblivious to the amount of artificial wealth/debt/money that has been taken out of the system.
——-
In other news, I saw that foreclosures are on the rise in Vancouver. 76,000 jobs lost in Canada. 500,000 plus lost in US. Nothing to see here, this is just what a slight, shallow correction looks like. Pfft!
December 5th, 2008 at 8:21 am
RENNIE SPEAKS….
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12.....amp;st=cse
Ill let the forum comment on this one…
December 5th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Sorry to rain on the parade, but No ONE career is recession proof.
Laws of Supply and Demand still kick in.
In a recession ,…People will cut back to absolute bare minimum, or flood the job market for those jobs deemed recession proof, and then a ” dutch auction” of how low one will go to keep a job OR obtain a job may start to kick in .
The daily news is making it abundantly clear that the Big Companies do not have the cash reserves (or are burning through them quickly )to weather a storm and especially this perfect storm which is crucifying the global economy. That makes medium and small firms as vulnerable if not moreso.
Gov’ts will have an even toughter choice…given many of them , especially here in BC ( Province of BC and Local Gov’ts ) have signed contracts with public servants to buy labour peace now and through the 2010 Olympics. Unless mistaken , the public sector unions chose wage increases, but not job guarantees(not that a job guarantee really exists). Time will tell how secure these public sector jobs are, but they shouldn’t feel very smug either.
December 5th, 2008 at 7:58 am
#30 is me
December 5th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Scullboy: If you’re interested, Roundel Cafe, 2465 E Hastings, is in urgent need of a cook. Great people, great crowd, recession proof, very foodie but not pretentious, 9 am open so none of those 5am start times (shudder). Eclectic, inclusive and artsy. My fave brunch place.
Many “high end” restaurants are NOT recession proof, same for $100 for a basic haircut places. Funeral directors and divorce lawyers should be safe, and anyone supplying reasonably priced things everyone needs.
Oh, and repo men should be busy!
WBWYCmovetheafterpartytotheRoundel:
They will open an evening for a booked event, they have Crannog beer on tap, and they are great!
December 5th, 2008 at 7:44 am
I forgot to say that the market shares for GM and Toyota are equivalent — approx. 20% each.
December 5th, 2008 at 7:27 am
Sorry about the nyt link. Google
“Big Three May Need to Trim Number of Brands”
if you are really interested in reading the article.
December 5th, 2008 at 7:23 am
Could the number of dealerships also affect profits? I don’t know about Ford, but GM has 5.5X more dealerships than Toyota in the US:
“G.M., for example, has about 6,700 dealers in the United States, compared to 1,200 for Toyota (the disparity is even greater when franchises are counted — G.M. dealers operate 14,000 franchises for its many brands, compared to 1,600 franchises for Toyota).”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12.....f=business
Now I understand why the salesman was so happy last spring when I bought my mustang. He literally jumped up and hugged me with glee! I didn’t realize I had done something so spectacular just by purchasing a car.
December 5th, 2008 at 7:04 am
Another sign of the times ?
Honda and Audi have announced they have pulled out of Formula 1 racing. They wish to concentrate on their core business.
Ouch!
December 5th, 2008 at 7:01 am
Autos and Choices:
A Modern Parable.
A Japanese company (Toyota) and an American company (Ford Motors) decided to have a canoe race on the Missouri River Both teams practiced long and hard to reach their peak performance before the race.
On the big day, the Japanese won by a mile.
The Americans, very discouraged and depressed, decided to investigate the reason for the crushing defeat. A management team made up of senior management was formed to investigate and recommend appropriate action.
Their conclusion was the Japanese had 8 people rowing and 1 person steering, while the American team had 7 people steering and 2 people rowing.
Feeling a deeper study was in order; American management hired a consulting company and paid them a large amount of money for a second opinion.
They advised, of course, that too many people were steering the boat, while not enough people were rowing.
Not sure of how to utilize that information, but wanting to prevent another loss to the Japanese, the rowing team’s management structure was totally reorganized to 4 steering supervisors, 2 area steering superintendents and 1 assistant superintendent steering manager.
They also implemented a new performance system that would give the 2 people rowing the boat greater incentive to work harder. It was called the ‘Rowing Team Quality First Program,’ with meetings, dinners and free pens for the rowers. There was discussion of getting new paddles, canoes and other equipment, extra vacation days for practices and bonuses. The pension program was trimmed to ‘equal the competition’ and some of the resultant savings were channeled into morale boosting programs and teamwork posters.
The next year the Japanese won by two miles.
Humiliated, the American management laid-off one rower, halted development of a new canoe, sold all the paddles, and canceled all capital investments for new equipment. The money saved was distributed to the Senior Executives as bonuses.
The next year, try as he might, the lone designated rower was unable to even finish the race (having no paddles,) so he was laid off for unacceptable performance, all canoe equipment was sold and the next year’s racing team was out-sourced to India .
Sadly, the End.
Here’s something else to think about: Ford has spent the last thirty years moving all its factories out of the US, claiming they can’t make money paying American wages.
TOYOTA has spent the last thirty years building more than a dozen plants inside the US. The last quarter’s results:
TOYOTA makes 4 billion in profits while Ford racked up 9 billion in losses.
Ford folks are still scratching their heads, and collecting bonuses… and now wants the Government to ‘bail them out’.
IF THIS WEREN’T SO TRUE IT MIGHT BE FUNNY
December 5th, 2008 at 6:42 am
Thanks for re-linking to the Pastrick’s folly. It should not be forgotten.
December 5th, 2008 at 3:34 am
I second the recommendation of carcostscanada.com. Steller website that’s worth every penny you pay for the quotes.
Last vehicle, I built my truck online, test drove it at a local dealer, than emailed and faxed every dealer in Alberta. I just kept grinding until I had nobody left who would go lower than the next guy.
Once I had the all-in price nailed down at the dealer of my choice, only then did we start talking about how I’d pay for it.
Following patriotz’ logic, I asked whether cash would get me a discount. Nope. Same price even if I took the 0%/3 years financing.
OK, I’ll take the cash flow.
The dealer was about 300 miles out of town. They drove it right to my door and I signed the papers at my kitchen table.
It’s no wonder
December 5th, 2008 at 2:26 am
Prediction: Unemployment hits 15% + before the end of 2009.
December 5th, 2008 at 1:10 am
The problem is not in separatism. The problem is that the nation just voted for something and before this something could be implemented the losers are trying to change things. Furthermore, the reason for it is because they want to borrow money and give it away. And in the process of any giveaway some people will benefit and some wont, and some people will be deciding who will benefit… This is all very wrong on many levels- we should not be borrowing, we should not be giving money away even if we had it, and people’s votes should be respected a bit more even if democracy is not the ideal form of government.
December 5th, 2008 at 12:57 am
It’s nothing but a power and money grabbing scheme by the NDPers and their welfare chums,
Hm. Well Stockwell Day seems to be your kind of guy. If it’s good enough for him, why not the other parties?
Bloc part of secret coalition plot in 2000 with Canadian Alliance
“OTTAWA — The separatist Bloc Québécois was part of secret plotting in 2000 to join a formal coalition with the two parties that now make up Stephen Harper’s government, according to documents obtained by The Globe and Mail.
The scheme, designed to propel current Conservative minister Stockwell Day to power, undermines the Harper government’s line this week that it would never sign a deal like the current one between the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Bloc.”
December 5th, 2008 at 12:36 am
fucking CMHC- I did not mortgage my future so they did it on my behalf as a Canadian citizen, taxpayer and consumer of Canadian government services. Maybe I should just pack and go some other place
December 5th, 2008 at 12:17 am
I’m really concern about this coalition government plot. It’s nothing but a power and money grabbing scheme by the NDPers and their welfare chums, Liberals and their old boys club. They all knew that there are plenty of opportunities to profit from this economic chaos.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Downsides to cash for a car? Yep, when you take money out of the bank to buy a car, the money is tied up in car and no longer working for you – meaning: not earning interest in savings – so you’re losing approx. 3% per month. So keep the money in the bank and take the zero interest rate financing offered by the dealership. Make the car payments. You’re not paying any interest this way, just earning it!
As for Mazda – be careful. Theives know that when you kick the driver’s side door just below the handle, the door will pop open. Usually just Mazda 3′s but I’ve seen dents on almost every model. Pretty much 90% of all Mazda 3′s in town have the dents. Unless you have a garage, aren’t parking downtown or dont’ mind paying out your deductable a few times a year, go ahead and buy the Mazda. Sharp looking cars – too bad for the flaw. The dealer won’t tell you until you have a claim, then they try to reinforce it with a metal bar inside the door. Even then, thieves don’t know which has been updated and which hasn’t …so they just kick the door harder.
For my money, I would go with the car that offers the biggest bang for the buck and the best warranty. if you hate domestics, why not try Mitsubishi? Their cars are stylish and have a 10 year warranty (best in the business). They usually offer 0% on selected models in either Jan or Feb. Just check the Mitsu Canadian website to see what they have for offers.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
What is a zero per cent loan worth to you? It’s worth the present value of the interest you didn’t pay. But if you have cash it’s the after tax return on the cash you didn’t spend. So let’s say 3%,
For a purchase price of 30K total interest at 3% amortized over 5 years works out to about $1500 and the present value will be less, about $1300 I think.
But the cost to the seller of the interest-free loan is the interest rate they have to pay, which is a lot larger. It’s really costing them about 10% off the purchase price, so they really should offer 10% off the price for cash. Why don’t they? Because they are trying to disguise price drops.
The problem for the cash buyer is that if it’s the manufacturer who’s taking the hit on the “free” financing, the dealer can’t offer you an equivalent discount for cash.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/popcalc2.asp
December 4th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Hey everybody, just a reminder that the detached benchmark DROPPED $104,725 from its peak in May and it is still dropping. In fact, in the last two months, the detached benchmark has roughly DROPPED $60k.
Buying now is like catching a falling knife … except you won’t be catching a butter knife, YOU’LL BE CATHING A RAZOR SHARP MACHETE.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Downsides to cash for a car? Yes, possibly, manufacturers have promotions which may be rigid and a bit irrational. For example you might have a choice of 1000$ off or a zero percent loan for 60 months. So grab a calculator, and decide if you are better off sticking your money in GICs or taking the cash discount.
December 4th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Are there any downsides to buying a car entirely with cash?
December 4th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Garth, the ONLY way to buy a new car is using the Fool’s approach: http://www.fool.com/car/car12.htm
Pick your model. Get the dealer’s cost from carcostcanada. Fax/email every dealership within 100km with a specification of the car you want from carcstcanada, and ask them to bid for your business. Take all the good bids and tell them they are still in the running for your business, but they need to do better and cut their prices.
Your second round of responses will leave you smiling since they will be within spitting distance of the true dealer cost.
I basically got within a couple hundred dollars of true dealer cost. Works like a charm, and saves tons of time and stress to do it all from home.
Good luck!
Now if I can re-work this scheme to buy a home in a couple years
December 4th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Hey Browntown – are you that beat-poet dog from the Lynda Barry comic? Post some bullish news links and I’ll consider adding them, the most recent one I could find was that prediction of rising BC house prices from back in March.
Can you find any more recent gems like that one?
December 4th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Re: That Bay Area house. Did you notice that in the pics, all of the plumbing has been ripped out?
What would the Vancouver condo equivalent be–foreclosees taking off with their precious granite counter tops?
December 4th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
buying a car- make sure you let the salesman know that you want documented proof that you are paying the lowest price of the year (you actually want to see their sales data). they’ll balk at first but then will come back to you. indeed mazda would be a good call.
December 4th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
That Bay Area house is now selling for less than the $104,000 drop of the Benchmark Vancouver house price from May to November.
That house is in the “hood” in Oakland and I’ll bet you anything the previous sale was mortgage fraud.
I once attended a sporting event at the Oakland Coliseum nearby and after it finished they had policemen standing every 100 feet from the exit doors to the Coliseum BART station. No fooling.
December 4th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
The Wiki Quote-tracker if fantastic. Great work everyone!
I have a feeling that this is important work that will have significant implications as this thing unfolds.
I particularly have my sights on the CMHC. Their staff routinely fail to provide disclaimers when making market projections…which I believe is a breach of their fiduciary duty as an underwriter of mortgages. As in:
- The CMHC is willing to underwrite my mortgage.
- This makes me eligible to obtain a mortgage.
- CMHC officials forecast rising house prices with no disclaimer.
- This leads me to be more confident in proceeding with a purchase.
- Equals breach of fiduciary duty.
- Which provides grounds for individual or class action lawsuits when house prices fall and people incur financial losses.
December 4th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
That Bay Area house is now selling for less than the $104,000 drop of the Benchmark Vancouver house price from May to November. Talk about a price-drop shopping spree, you can now get a house in southern California with the money you’ve saved by not buying at the peak. Anybody else getting tired of the Vancouver winter climate?
December 4th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Garth said: “(no GM for me, ha!)”
I agree. Never before had I driven such a piece of junk.
I since owned a Mazda protege (loved it) and now, a Mustang GT convertible low-rider (talk about zoom, zoom, zoom!)
December 4th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Garth
Test drive and give them your contact info (don’t give them too much contact or you’ll be pestered ’till the end of time). Make them an offer that is 10-20% below blue book. If they won’t deal walk away. Odds are they’ll contact you soon, if not go to a different dealership and offer 5% more than your last offer, same deal.
Honestly though Toyota isn’t as pressured as some others. Mazda might be more into cutting good deals right now.
December 4th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
In 1995 someone told me he went in to a GM dealership with $7000 cash and came out with a brand new Sunfire. I had just leased one for 3 years at $250/mo. which added up to $9,000 and the payout after the lease if I still wanted to buy it would be $10,000, so at that time I learned about the value of cash.
Good luck!
December 4th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
In the last thread people were talking about how prices are dropping on a lot of things. My question is this: how can I go about getting an optimal cash deal on a new car?
I see all sorts of ads for “0% financing” or “we pay your first x months” or whatever. I’m not interested in that. I want to write as small a cheque as possible for a new Toyota (no GM for me, ha!), and just drive away with no more obligations.
Any suggestions?
December 4th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
oh yeah nutslaps! look for bear panic in 09 with mortgage rate plunge and gov reflation wave! all bull news banned for this week from pope post! browntown numb #1