Friday Free-for-all!
Well, I made it a week without posting, and I’m encouraged by the way that readers have stepped up with story submissions. No one seems to be interested in doing the Friday Free-for-all, and I’m not sure it’s a tradition I want to let vanish yet, so here goes:
-Vancouver rises in economic ranks, Regina is #1
-Canada could face six years of deficits
-Warnings of risky mortgages ignored
-What ever happened to $200 / barrel oil?
-Toronto condo boom heading for bust
-Bush considers ‘orderly’ autos bankruptcy
-Grim choice: walking away from a mortgage
-Harper concedes possibility of depression
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and thoughts here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link into your comment will automatically create a clickable hot-link.
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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arit Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Nolympics – Don’t even think about it. Enough
Regards
arit
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
VANCOUVER IS PICKING UP ECONOMY MOMENTUM
check the no.1 link on fffa.
FUTURE SUPPLY FOR DOWNTOWN VANCOUVER
2009=3,799 UNITS,2010=840 UNITS,2011=836 UNITS
welcome to vancouver
NEXT SHOW IS ABOVE TO BEGUN
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other ted Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
I am not for bailouts and I sure am not for unions but bailing out auto made more sense than bailing out the banksters. Not really advocating the auto bailout but lets face it they are asking for far less than even AIG and are far more important to our economies. Well our as in Canada(ie toronto) out here won’t make much of a dent as we don’t have a real economy. But really disapointed in Bush the bank bailout may be over $4 trillion but the guy has no problem watching gm go under.
Interesting about the $200 oil. I never believed in the prices for oil I always felt it should have never gone above $50 but I even believed it would hit $200 briefly. I thought the speculators would briefly take it there and when it hit the meltdown we are facing would happen. I was half right it hit $147 and we still got the meltdown. I guess it didn’t have to go that high for all of this to happen. I remember telling family this just before summer. A few people phoned me to tell me they remember me being the only person predicting what would happen and how it would play out.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Here is what will happen in Vancouver just ten times worse because Vancouver only has 1/10 of the people and lower salaries is why vancouver boom in march.
“in Southern California. The median price for an area with more than 20 million people has now breached the $300,000 mark. This is significant because the peak of $505,000 was reached only last summer.
The market has deteriorated so quickly and with such devastation, it gives me pause to think what is going to happen when the $300 billion in pay option ARMS (POA) recast in 2009 through 2012. ”
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Anonymous Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
the pope,
Delete comment number 4 and this one as well thanks no more bs.
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browntown Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
oh yeah nutslappys! remembers some will call for “trevor”, some will call for “mats”, but mostly december 2008 they will call it
“the bottom”
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domus Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Just for curiosity, I have gone to dig up some of the posts I made at Rob Chipman’s blog last december (2007).
Back them bulls still had the upper hand: they were killing me and Blueskies (good ole Blueskies) and making fun of us.
Even ou predictions were prudent: i think I was not expecting a drop larger than 4% in 2008 overall. It turns out the drop was twice as large.
This market has all but crashed! It is a major crash, as well, nothing like the mid-1990s retrenchment!
Even more interesting, from an historical prespective, is that this has happened:
1- with low mortgage rates, well below past historical levels;
2- in a situation of low unemplyment, which is still hovering around 6%;
It makes you think this crash has strong shoulders, if it can happen when labor/mortgage markets are in decent shape (at least by historical comparisons).
The crash is going to get worse: we might see decent SFH on the west side going for below 700K within the end of 2009. Condos are doomed: 2 bedrooms + garage on Kitsilano will start trading around the 400k mark pretty soon.
One only doubt: like in December 2007, I might be erring on the cautious side. the crash might actually be even larger…..
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anonymous Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
Domus, more research required. Mortgage rates are just starting to drop now due to deflationary pressures. Marginal areas like mount pleasant have seen condo values drop about 25%, Kitsilano values have dropped five percent at the most.
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VHB Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
“Mortgage rates are just starting to drop ”
In the week that the fed announced ZIRP, I think this is a fine candidate for Bullsh!t of the week.
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anonymous Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
I said morgage rates, not central bank interest rates. Nice try dumbass.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Dagnabit, I am not #1….$%#@&
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Yes, big recruiting move for Whistler Gondola repairman to make sure safe and ready for 2010…many Gondola repairman coming from Arab Emirate countries these will create demand for both condos and cous -cous (not necessarily in that order) Bob Rennie be happy able to increase” paint by number” stick men art collection have a merry Xmas + John the SUV collector will flash his bling especially after selling 30 cylinder Hummer to David Suzuki , because Vancouver real estate never go South aka NEVER GO DOWN !!!!, only reason market stall was Mats Sundin uncertainty,now resolved thank Allah even if Scandinavian Hockey Hessian Sundin only stay one year, maybe trade for much better Sean Avery later , who cares Tampa BaY Lightning catch fire when Phil and Tony Esposito come out of retirement and sell AmWay….
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MrBear Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
My first thought when starting into that “grim choice” article:
But the reality was undeniable: While she was keeping up with the monthly payments, she said she could no longer afford to buy food for herself or even kitty litter for her two cats.
How about you eat your cats? Two birds with one stone, and you won’t be leaving taxpayers on the hook for your poor financial management skills.
Yes, that is a bit excessive, but I’m going to be pissed when governments start “inflating away debt” to help out people who spent beyond their means on the backs of those of us who sacrificed and saved responsibly. The risk of hyperinflation is the one thing that keeps me up at night.
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gadwin Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Hey guys! Let’s countdown to the New Year! We have 13 days to go until the New Year! Because prices are dropping at the rate of $1K a day for a detached SFH in Vancouver, we can do our countdown to the New Year each day, starting at $13K rather than 13 days!!
$13K
$12K
$11K
$10K
$9K…
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scullboy Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 11:29 pm
Ah to have one’s post referenced by VHB. It’s like God saying “That dude over there’s got it going on…”
Thought I would mention another quote normally attributed to Ghandi: “First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.”
Given all the angry realtors and guys like Dave who are trying to justify high prices with … shall we say…. questionable theses and data, we’re in the “then they fight you” phase of the game.
It’s been a hard slog for bears. I owned a great place in Toronto and frankly, I *completely* get the pride in ownership thing. I loved my home, and felt like it *was* a home, a great one.
I moved here in 2006 and instantly sensed something was off. People were… irrational. I was making a little less then I did back in TO, but there was just no way I could afford *anything* here. It was bizarre. If I had made my Van salary back in TO I could at least have swung something modest. But the Van salary and Van prices…. no way.
And the people… when you spoke Real Estate, it was like the turned into Pod People. They all said the same thing and none of it made any sense at all. I kept asking myself “Am I crazy, or am I like the only sane person in this city”?
Then I saw an article in the Straight which referenced VHB. Ah the power of the internet…. Back in the 90s is made being gay in Antigonish, NS bearable because (heh) I knew I wasn’t the only one out there, and it made being a bear in Vancouver bearable (heh) for the same reason.
VHB, the Pope and CondoHype, they’re like the Holy Trinity of bear bloggers. Thanks everyone. If it weren’t for you I never would have survived.
And SatV, thanks to you, too. If ever there was a useful idiot, it’s you. As far as I am concerned you perfectly represent the id of bulls, so stupid venal and greedy you can’t even think well enough to write a proper sentence.
Oh and Majel Barret (Nurse Chapel from Star Trek) just died. God this has been an awful year.
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kansai_92 Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Some people might argue that Craigslist rental counts might be skewed because of the simple fact that more people are using Craigslist.
But I’m also seeing approximately double the number of rentals available from Prompton leasing department when compared to last year.
In most cases rents are the same or lower when compared to last year.
Listings are also showing up with “small pets” considered, free cable and internet for a year, free Hydro for 3 months, etc.
There were virtually no ads offering incentives last year and only a handful accepting pets.
It seems that new units coming online with the completion of buildings like Coopers Lookout and H&H are putting downward pressure on the other buildings in False Creek North.
And I’m also seeing some ads on Craigslist that were originally advertised as being available for October occupancy.
It’s now mid-December. That means 4 months of hemmoraging if they’re lucky enough to find a tenant for January 1st.
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asalvari Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
This is a good one:
http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=1045
Despite many efforts to get industry experts to fess up, yours truly had a hunch that could find no purchase. Finally, en route to Austin from New Orleans, an encounter with a Houston energy trader yielded the plausible anecdote that just might provide the elusive answer. This gentleman explained that a New York investment banker had told him point-blank that near the end of 2007 the investment banks were getting their clocks cleaned so brutally by the sub-prime crash, that they desperately needed to shore up their balance sheets. Hungry investors wanted results.
So, they doubled-down on commodities trading, especially oil futures. Why? Because, hitherto, fluctuations of more than two percent in securities raised eyebrows; whereas daily gyrations of five, seven, even 10 percent in commodities would scarcely cause an eyelash to bat. A bidding war on that pinch of oil supply ensued, as ever-avaricious hedge fund managers sought to capitalize on the oil scare. Up and up and up went the price, fueled by analyst firms telling us that $200 per barrel was right around the corner.
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gadwin Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 2:39 am
Jingle Bulls Christmas Carol:
Dashing from the banks
eviction comes your way,
O’er the fields we go,
bankrupt by Wednesday;
Bells on bob tail ring,
buyers out of sight,
What fun it is to laugh and sing
you’ll be homeless tonight, O!
Jingle bulls, jingle bulls,
foreclosure today!
Oh! what fun it is to fall
and throw your wealth away, hey!
Jingle bulls, jingle bulls,
foreclosure today!
Oh! what fun it is to fall
and throw your wealth away!
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gadwin Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 3:15 am
On the first day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Another land making machine.
On the second day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the third day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the fourth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the fifth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the sixth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the seventh day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the eighth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the ninth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Nine shoebox condos,
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the tenth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Ten years of losses,
Nine shoebox condos,
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the eleventh day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Eleven bubbles popping,
Ten years of losses,
Nine shoebox condos,
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the twelfth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Twelve David Lereahs,
Eleven bubbles popping,
Ten years of losses,
Nine shoebox condos,
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 3:42 am
“Shackle doesn’t fit that category. The single, first-time homebuyer bought a two-bedroom condo in Calimesa, Calif., in 2006 for $191,000. She wasn’t required to put any money down despite her limited income as a waitress, thanks to a lofty credit score of 788.
The financing consisted of two interest-only loans with initial rates of about 7 percent and 10 percent. Her monthly payment, including an escrow account for property taxes and insurance, was about $1,400 a month. That was manageable until she had serious problems with asthma and missed a lot of work.”
This is obscene, but by no means an extreme example (especially by Vancouver standards).
We can rage about personal responsibility, but the banks know financial ignorance and illiteracy run rampant in the general population. This was a single cocktail waitress with a freaking interest-only $200,000 loan (no money down).
And as the Other Ed mentions, the banks are getting the multi-trillion dollar bailout. Shackle (how ironic) will suffer for her bad decisions, while the banksters laugh all the way to the…bank.
And as much as I don’t like corporate bailouts either, are any of us prepared for social meltdown that will occur once several cities lose their economy entirely…while the banksters count their money…this has the making of a revolution.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 6:45 am
Post # 17
Thanks for posting that re: commodities trading.
Everytime I filled up in 2008 I felt scammed and ripped off moreso than usual.
I guess too many people bought and drank that Kool Aid too.
People must have felt a hot RE economy justified a rising tide raises all ships, when in fact it was the exact opposite, specuvestors active in all sectors.
Oil business is notorious for playing these games with the PEAK Oil gurus fearmongering. If , as you say , by the end of 2007 the writng was on the wall re: U.S. RE, they double – dipped to fool all that all was well in the economy with another round of specuvesting . Oil has experienced a huge % crash in price from peak -to -current price , moreso than RE.
The gas gouging , in my view, was a final fork in the turkey…it tipped the bogus economy into the abyss faster by creating an ill timed fiscal black hole .
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blueskies Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 8:25 am
mea culpa…..
in Jan/07 i boldly predicted prices would be down by 10% by the end of Dec/08….. I was WRONG!
so this year…. no predictions
but i am holding out to pay $300K for a West side teardown, there may be some motivated sellers out there this year……
2009 The Year of the lowball
mugio pretium is annus(C)
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Mike Stewart Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Boys…
Its not all that bad…
How can Oil under $40/barrel and a predicted Federal stimulus package of $30 billion be something to be unhappy about?
When the market turns for the better, you’ll only know after its happened…
And the hard core bears will still be hear denying it!!
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domus Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Kits apartments (transaction prices) are down well over 5% YOY. Just ask your realtor
As for mortgage rates: they can drive them to the ground, people still won’t buy. If anyone is under the illusion that next year there will be a pickup in the market, you are GROSSLY mistaken. 2009 will be much WORSE than 2008.
This market is Kaput, until prices halve in real terms. After that, expect a perdio of flatness and finally (maybe 4 years from now) a new pick up in prices.
No hurry, folks: take your chair and butter the popcorns. the show has just started and you can relax and enjoy it!
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 8:43 am
deflation at the rink, right on
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....9/GIStory/
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domus Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 8:47 am
From Bloomberg
MORTGAGE RATES (Rates may include points.)
CURRENT 1 MO. PRIOR
15-YEAR 5.23 5.73
30-YEAR 5.27 6.07
1-YEAR ARM 5.67 5.63
These are low interests, historically. yet the RE market is tanking. Welcome to the world of the house price crash. And it’s going to last much longer.
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ant Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Hear hear here? Nice to see you here Mike.
Benjamin Tal says Vancouver and the West will fare better than the rest of the country!
Sorry, is this the same Benjamin Tal that warned us about $200 oil? The same one that said this on wednesday?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com...../Business/
Sorry Mike, please try again!
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alexcanuck Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 8:58 am
It is the reasons why oil is under 40 and we need* a stimulus package that worry me. And don’t worry, Mike. Most bears around here WILL see the market turn, and in the interim will no trouble at all making their mortgage, car lease, credit card, LOC or any other payments. Bears don’t get rich quick. Slow and steady is the key, but you’d better believe we’re ready to put a fat war-chest to work once enough bulls are exposed for the shams that they are.
Part of slow and steady is knowing when to move quickly. You have to be prepared to move quickly. I, for one, am in the peak of training, with cash reserves up the yin-yang.
Not quite yet. Patience. The time is drawing near.
*Like I need a hole in my pocket!
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Anonymous Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 8:59 am
I talked to some realtors last night and they all said Mike Stewart is the biggest tool who prices units way high and then prances around in a top hat.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:10 am
I’ll take the RENTAL market as the best parameter on the health of the local RE market.(aka Supply versus Demand )
Our family has been Landlords going on 40 years. If it takes you more than 2 months to find a renter, there is a SERIOUS problem.
You are either priced too high…or there are too many options for the renters. It is our experience that most renters don’t think long term…they give their notice and then scramble to find a new place, in what used to be a tight market with low vacancy rates.
We tended to price the rent below the market rent for comparable accomodations,and found that was very successful.
If all these condos owners can’t find a renter, or have tried for several months…and still SOL… Yiiiikkkess !!!
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betamax Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Idiot said: “Its not all that bad…
How can Oil under $40/barrel and a predicted Federal stimulus package of $30 billion be something to be unhappy about?”
Ask yourself why those things are happening, genius.
Oil is crashing in part because demand is crashing amidst an incipient world-wide recession.
The Fed has to shell out $30 billion *because they have to* in a possibly vain attempt to keep markets from crashing further.
You’re on sinking ship and the crew hands out lifejackets and you think it’s great that the lifejackets are free.
Grab a brain, the crash is just beginning.
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Dave Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:17 am
How can Oil under $40/barrel and a predicted Federal stimulus package of $30 billion be something to be unhappy about?
I don’t see these things as being good for the West.
With respect to oil, $40 a barrel hurts our provincial budget and spending. Low oil prices will mean less incentive for companies to pay top dollar for oil rights. Low oil prices will mean less oil royalty. The only reason that BC is going to run a budget surplus this year is due to the sale of natural gas rights in the north-east. Obviously cheap oil is going to hurt investment in Alberta as well. A lot of BC’s economic activity is from the oil patch. I think cheap oil hurts us more than it helps us.
With respect to the looming federal deficit, it seems doubtful to me that BC and Alberta are going to get their fair share. Rather, it will probably be a net negative considering the amount of transfer payments we kick in due to us being have provinces.
I would rather see Canada and our provinces not run deficits. The downturn in the economy wasn’t internally driven but is more external in nature. Once the world economy turns around, we will be well positioned for a recovery. Throwing taxpayer money around and bailing out bad businesses hurts us more in the long run. Let the bad businesses fail and better ones will take their place. Infrastructure spending is somewhat OK in my mind as long as it goes to things that we really need and things that will provide a net economic benefit.
That said, I am not pessimistic about our economy. It is more diverse than many people are willing to believe. Employment levels are good. Immigration is still positive. And… it is a great place to live.
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betamax Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:17 am
When the market turns for the better, you’ll only know after its happened…
Yah, that housing market is going to snap right around after languishing on the bottom for a decade. Hope I don’t miss the glacial uptick.
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blueskies Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:20 am
You’re on sinking ship and the crew hands out lifejackets and you think it’s great that the lifejackets are free.
great analogy!
when times were good they were handing out “kool-aid” enemas for free also and look where that got us….
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buff_butler Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Benjamin Tal couldn’t predict his way out of a hallway. I remember seeing one of his economic presentations before the crash gained momentum and he insisted that canada didn’t have US subprime so therefore we’re going to do great. He had total tunnel vision and wouldn’t even consider ideas outside of the standard economists predictions.
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Dave Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:31 am
It’s a bad analogy and serves only to exaggerate the downturn. Growth stopping or minor shrinkage is not a ‘sinking ship’. A better analogy would be the ship running into a slight headwind with some minor waves. We’ll get through it, just like every other time.
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btk/bdk Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Bush announces auto rescue
Government to loan GM and Chrysler $13.4 billion from Wall Street bailout fund so that the embattled auto firms don’t run out of cash.I am in kind of agreement with vancouver boom2
I bdk swear and affirm that i accept my defeat on this forum.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:36 am
From the Greator Fool blog
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008...../#comments
Garth is showing a photo of 2 houses….
QUOTE:
“So, look at the houses above.
The one on the left has 2,978 square feet, the one on the right 2,634 square feet. The one on the left was built 80 years ago, the one on the right, 63 years ago. The one on the left sits on a lot 35 by 160, and the one on the right on a lot 50 by 120. The one on the left has 6 bedrooms, and the one on the right has 5 bedrooms.
They are both active listings at the moment within downtown neighbourhoods of two large cities.
The house on the right is listed at $998,000. The house on the left is for sale at $300. (That’s not a typo.)
Can you guess where? ”
QUOTE from a Greater Fool poster
” I have a friend who just got back from Detroit U.S.A. where he was surprised to see that you can take bus tours of the foreclosures. The pamphlet that he recieved for the area he was about to tour showed more than 20 houses for less than $1,000 with the cheapest house being $250. All properties on city services, houses all over 1,300 sq. ft. Just hard to believe! And we think our prices have crashed here in Canada!? ”
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Russian Bear Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Several months ago I discovered a web-site written by Chris Martenson. He is an American and he writes primarily about US economic conditions and such. I am sure some people on this blog are familiar with his work.
To make a long story short, Chris is a huge critic of current financial affairs in the US and uses plain data to support his positions and conclusions. He rarely writes about RE, but has, in my opinion, a good peace written about it today. It is called “Mortgage rate blowout – a new bubble in the making?” and here is the link:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/.....king/10439
I am curious to know if people on this blog can see the same scenario that Chis describes unfolding in Canada down the road.
Thank you.
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:44 am
No-Lympics #30. I too smell a rat. I have the distinctly ugly feeling that our media here in Canada is being far less than forthcoming with the truth in a timely unbiased manner. I have to assume that things are much worse than is being reported, because anectodatal evidence is so contrary to the medias portrayal of our state of affairs. It’s not just contradictory , it’s antipodal.
An intelligent person ( who doesn’t swallow every message the media proffers)has to assume that if recession is taking hold all over the planet and that in particular our biggest trading partner ( who by the way is 85% of the Canadian economy) to the south is in so much trouble that little BC is not an island of economic tranquility. Give me a break, that makes no logical sense. Is anyone going to suggest that our US neighbours who are far more financially astute than their Canadian counterparts are going to do worse than we are here in Vancouver. Come on !
If Gordon Campbell and our asshole lying politicians have been such proven screw ups in the good times of the past, why would anyone rally around their flagpole now. Surely no on here on this forum is that insecure, or insane !
Renters can’t be found by budding landlords at current asking prices because they ( asking prices) don’t have any relationship to reality. Asking prices for 500 sq, ft ‘coffins’ are $3000 p/m on Craigslist. Do you wonder why they can’t find tenants. These owners have alligator mortgages that they are trying to cover, and can’t. If you have landlord experiance then you know the rule # 1 in the buisness, “cash flow to service debt”, I/R = V, period, hasn’t changed since they took Christ down from the cross. It’s written in stone.
Thousands of construction workers and the industries that support construction activity have been laid off with the projects that have been cancelled. Seriously, count them; how many jobs get lost when one project gets cancelled, ( never mind the thousands of people who have recently lost their jobs to the waves of layoffs taking place) now multiply that by the number of projects that have been cancelled. How many houses are also not being built. I see projects being cancelled ( including SFH sites) all over the valley. For example Bosa Brothers massive stealth cancellation of 1162 units in White Rock for example, that’s a lot of carpets not being laid. Think about the supply chain ramifications.
I have witnessed reverse migration in the statistics recently,where major labour contraters are sending workers home. So much for a never ending supply of immigrants. This affects landlords and condo sellers alike. As the projects for the 2010 Olympics are finished ( such as the Oval in Richmond) where are all these labourers going to go?
Business is not as rosy as the media is portraying. There is only one major media empire in this country, how difficult is it to assume that there may be an information bottleneck.
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Dave Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:55 am
As the projects for the 2010 Olympics are finished ( such as the Oval in Richmond) where are all these labourers going to go?
Here is the list of coming projects:
http://www.gov.bc.ca/tted/atta.....282008.pdf
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Re Oil prices:
Talked to a colleague re: the Automaker crash and the possible bailouts.
I mentioned that perhaps the automakers would downsize their product lines,make more practical and efficient products, ( at least no more midgets as sole occupants driving those jacked up 4 X 4 crew cab Pickups with huge tires you need a step ladder to access). My view was that would create less demand for oil and stop the scam of $1.40 +/litre gas we had recently from repeating.
He stated that switching from say V-8 down to say mostly 6 or even 4 cylinder would “maybe” reduce Oil consumption by 6 – 8 % at best,that’s it.
Sensing where this was going, he then formally ” filled in the blank” that much of the world’s Oil is actually used to produce consumer products (plastics etc.). The specuvestors ramped up the benchmark price of Oil , but that gave a false reading of the economy .
In essence, the collapse in oil prices is more a reflection of the health of the global economy’s overall manufacturing output, crucial in most countries. Oil is basically a raw material for much of what we buy. China , the emerging economic giant has already closed tens of thousands of factories.
Oil and Condos DO mix…. Offshore investment collapses, round round she goes, ….where she stops NOBODY knows.
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betamax Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Growth stopping or minor shrinkage is not a ‘sinking ship’.
You’ve confused the beginning of a recession with the full depth of the recession. The recession has just begun. 2008 is going to look like a good year compared to 2009.
A better analogy would be the ship running into a slight headwind with some minor waves.
LOL. Keep dreaming.
We’ll get through it, just like every other time.
Of course we’ll ‘get through it’, but many will not get through it financially unscathed.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 10:21 am
i have nothing to say so i just write a bunch of words together that I want the economy and the housing market to improve even though i know it won’t for decades to come
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 10:25 am
RE: Bosa in White Rock.
Having family that lives out there…that project really had the local community up in arms.
Prior to that Bosa project, the highest building in White Rock was maybe 8- 10 stories.
From what I hear, the 1st phase of the Bosa project has been a white elephant, lots of unsold condos. Bosa acquired the land by displacing commercial tenants in existing buildings ,(typical “land making machine” these days) but have now cancelled the next phases, leaving an urban blight of empty stores. Who knows if and when the market will rebound ?
Again, a sign of the big developers bending the ear of naive Councils with pie in the sky BS, and was it all worth it in the end ? This crash and burn is being repeated all over BC.
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Anonymous Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 10:40 am
shut up 44 bdk
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Dave #41, 136 pages of historical wish lists. I think there was an Elevator to the Moon proposal listed on page 126. Dream on.
As I said ” If our politicians have so far been proven to be lying, self serving , incompetant assholes thus far why would you expect people to rally around the flag of leadership now”.
I know that shocking the population was an effective Stalanist social engineering tool, but do you think that the same Machiavellian tact will work here under current conditions ?
Dave, wheres all that money going to come from. The Fed has already stated that there is no money coming unless contingent with Provincial participation. The NDP finance critic ( and if you knew me you’d know I’m loath to agree with the NDP on anything) I think has the Olympic budget figures right for a change.
The Provincial government has blown it’s wad on the Olympics at approx 3.5++ Billion and has no fallback plan It’s a strictly scorched earth financial plan which has blown up in their faces due to the onset of the global recession. Theres no money left for bailouts and make work projects in BC, we’re all freaking doomed.
Does anyone want to speculate why Carol Taylor bolted. She’s a smart woman who obviously wanted nothing to do with the backlash thats coming down the hill.
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
PS
http://condohype.wordpress.com/
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kuroame Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
The “bulls” arguing that we’ve reached bottom and that we’ll come through ok remind me of the last days of Nazi Germany, when Hitler refused to believe that the Russians were about to over-run them and would issue counter-attack orders to non-existant armies and hand out metals to the 12 and 70 year olds that were defending Berlin – when all the mentally functional germans were fleeing to the western front so they could surrender to the Americans.
We’re not debating with bulls here, we’re debating with people who are so tied emotionally to their belief that they can’t admit defeat no matter how clear it is. It’s really a waste of time – like trying to convince someone who believes in god that there may not be one, they’ll just cite the bible as “proof”.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I think the short term crystal ball will show the BC Gov’t will crank up the 2010 Olympic propoganda to calm the potential revolt by the masses. Good bloody luck !
Local Gov’ts are likely shitting bricks right now, given they have to produce balanced budgets in the next few months but their fiscal projections are all shot.
Terminal fiscal vampire Translink should be either neutered or euthanized.
etc….. etc….
etc.
Maybe this is a golden opportunity(ala “Lemonade out of lemons”) for democracy to be seized back from the jaws of these assholes.
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Aleks Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
What happened to $200 oil? The same idiot extrapolators who predicted $200 are now predicting $10 oil.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
I’ve mentioned this before on VCI, Vacancies as calculated by stats canada which I believe is CMHC’s source are done on the basis of 3 or more suites rented by the SAME landlord Has to use identical name as well) either owner or property manager. For instance all the suites Prompton has WOULD be counted as they would be a known PM firm. Lets say one Tower had 10 rental suites that were managed by ONE property manager and nine were rented, and in addition there were 90 suites for rent by individual owners who had no more then two suites in ONE name. So in this example the Tower has 100 suites, for fun we will say NONE of the individual suites are rented so the total rented is NINE! The vacancy rate as calculated by stats canada would be 10 % vacancy (one out of ten). The real vacancy is 91% vacant. I work in dozens of towers and my guess is around a current 10 to 12 % vacancy rate in Yale town.
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
David Dodge (ex BOC govenor) stated today that Canada would see a deep recession until 2011. He spoke today with Mike Duffy on CTV. He says ‘everything in 2009, is just history”. He said ” It will be longer than people think”. He said the ‘construction train has come to an end”.
These are all direct quotes from a guy who can speak without political consequence. This is exactly why they got him to speak I imagine because he can’t be burned politically and they have to start getting people ready for the truth. Oh Oh.
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other ted Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
yup no sub prime mortgage here. No loose lending here. Just arrived home for christmas found out my sister and her husband bought a third house for over $600,000 not sure exact value maybe higher. They have secure good paying jobs and sure are qualified for this house. But 3 houses they cannot afford. They believe they can rent out their current house. Refuse to sell it and refuse to believe anything other than a real estate rebound is around the corner.
This may sound cold but i am not loosing sleep on this one. Some people and their arrogance need to eat some humble pie.
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go figure Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
A homeowner who lives in a M$ house can claim child and family benefits, free MSP for the whole family, free dental for kids, pharmacare, and not declare incomes earn on illegal suites and rooms & board. His rental properties cover his mortgages and since he collects rents in cash, after deducting repairs and other costs, he still qualifies as a low-income earner.
Your sister and her husband are just one of them who outwit the system whose right hand doesn’t know what the left hand is doing.
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Mayor happy moon Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Matt Sundin has chosen Vancouver over New York, he obviously knows we are the best place on earth and are world class. New York has lots of work to do if they want to attract the best like we do.
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Sundin ( his agent) suckered the Canucks into paying him $5.6 million to play for the balance of this season. This contract with Sundin is a one time-short term deal. He’s coming here to get paid, nothing more. He currently lives in Sweden. New York was obviously not stupid enough to pay up 5+ million for a guy who’ll only be commited to a half year contract. Vancouver gets suckered yet again, don’t get too attached. I’ve taken longer vacations than the time Sundin will spend in Vancouver. You have to ask him if he’s amenable to being paid in Canadian dollars. Probably not. I think Happy Moon has been into the happy sauce.
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domus Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
I just spent some time on the MLS.
I focused on an area I know well, Dunbar, and was looking at the price of SFH.
It seem many of them are asking for a bit less of $1million, which is already a bit lower than it was last spring.
So here is the test for you: if I wanted to buy a home in that area, how much should I ideally pay for a decent 3 beds home?
a) 1 million
b) 900k
c) 800k
d) 700k
e) 600k
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Anonymous Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
#58
D
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kuroame Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
#58
G
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Aleks Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
150 times monthly rent.
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I told you so Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Comparing a city like New York to Vancouver is totally foolish. I dont have actual stats, but unless proven wrong my opinion is:
First NY has more culture (museums, art show, theater, etc)in one block than Vancouver does in the whole city. The latest show i heard came in to town is the Cheech & Chong show.
Second, NY economics dwarfs those of Vancouver. GDP, Income per capita, etc
Third the level of income in NY is obviously by far superior than Vancouver. Therefore there is an economic basis to support high prices.
Fourth, NY should have a greater number of tourist than Van.
And that is all i could come up with in 30 seconds. Does anyone think differently?
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
domus #58, why are any of the figure you listed relevant to today’s circumstances? Are any of them based on anything? Are you trying to guage market psycholgy ( if so congrats)but otherwise I think you have to take into consideration that real estate is a purely emotional market that has very little function as an investment vehicle. Commercial real estate is another story because it has quant characteristics.
To underscore that thought look at the 50 year investment returns on real estate at less than 5% per annum compounded. It is a great forced savings plan for the stupid but not much of an invest in real terms. Maybe your still ‘ajitter’ from the hype you got doused with through out the last rise. Many people of the generation-cohort 21-35 years have known nothing else and are in for the rude shock of their generation.
If the current price regime is as agreed by all to be completly baseless why not consider that property values will be well under the field you have chosen. The average price of a SFH in California is now $285,000 down from $700,000; more than a 50% correction so far and falling. I remember back in 1982 the real estate market collapsed more than 50% in Vancouver. Why don’t you think that can happen here again in your generation. I do. reality, you may find , is what is and not what you’d like it to be. To think that house prices will bottom at some level that guarantees a previous owner some sanctity of their equity is supremly naive from a historical perspective.
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Aleks #61, you are on the right track.
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domus Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Realpaul #63:
I am not sure what you are on about. All I am trying to figure out is what people think is a reasonable (and realistic) price for a 3bed home in Dunbar.
If you think the price should be lower that what I wrote, just say so. I’s be really happy to know why, as I am an RE bear.
I personally think prices will halve in real terms. I am not sure about nominal terms, although i think in nominal terms we could easily see drops of up to 35% (so in my little example above, a home in Dunbar should go down to 650k).
If the credit crisis gets worse, there is no lower bound. But that’s a big if, since central bank are printing paper money as if it was toilette paper. There will be inflation as soon as the belt transmission connects with the monetary engine.
Basically, RE is a dead investment for years to come: but this doesn’t stop me from speculating about possible market prices. So, people: go and give an answer to the post#58 riddle. Curious to see what you think.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
# 57 :
Why so cynical???
Look what a great signing Messier was !
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LongtimeLurkerWaitingfortheReturnofReason Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Apparently Vancouver’s Real Estate Board is surveying people (randomly dialed up from telephone book???). I didn’t do the survey so don’t know the questions being asked. I wish I would have asked how they got my number.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Post # 65:
When something is in free – fall it gathers momentum……no sense guessing or intervening till it goes S-P-L-A-T !
I don’t foresee a lot of people saying ” Oh, that Dunbar house was $1 million , but its now (for example) $725,000…I think I will dive in and buy it , such a deal ” .
People have woken up and feel a bit cheated and lied to re the RE Ponzi scheme, which in my view has been going on in BC for the last 20 + years .
My guess is spring 2009 will be flooded with sellers, not purchasers. BTW my other guess is ex-$1 Million Dunbar house will be $600,00 – $500,000 by Mid 2009 and quite possibly less.
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Domus#65 My guess is that Dunbar with it’s lousy location , lack of services, predominance of iheritance cases awaiting in the basement, low end (illegal) suites and preponderance of absence of design goes for sub-400K by fourth quarter 2009.
That goes for Cambie, Marpole and Arbutus ( with the exception of very small snippets of Arbutus ridge) Dunbar has no such exceptional demographic going for it. Dunbar and Cambie contain no exceptional stock or development potential except pre-war tear downs. There is also a predominance of decadent space.
I know it sounds like a kick in the guts for some , but people pay for my opinion and I see no reason to shy away from the factual truth.
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Keeping An Eye on the Pimps Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
53 realpaul Says:
“David Dodge (ex BOC govenor) stated today that Canada would see a deep recession until 2011. He spoke today with Mike Duffy on CTV. He says ‘everything in 2009, is just history”. He said ” It will be longer than people think”. He said the ‘construction train has come to an end”.
David Dodge was an accomplice in the crime; he worked over time printing cheap money.
He was a Greenspan Lite.
What I find extraordinarily difficulty to believe is how the central bankers are trying to lower interest rates when clearly much of the current turmoil was caused buy keeping interest rates too low for too long creating one bubble after another.
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Keeping An Eye on The Pimps Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Hurry, Hurry, Hurry to buy cause the experts say there won’t be much of a price drop.
“Experts urge buying for long haul
Slower price hikes mean profit on resale may take little longer”
http://www.calgaryherald.com/s.....p;sponsor=
Just too funny, I have been waiting for a while for the pimps to dust off this pitch for re-use.
“Fence sitters hoping for drastic price cuts before buying will be disappointed to hear that no one in the industry is expecting any, Mr. Mehlenbacher adds. “If we were in a real estate bubble we would have felt something in the last month. Yes, sales have slowed down, but they haven’t stopped. Don’t start thinking you’ll be able to buy a $3-million condo for $2-million — you’d still be paying $2.8-million, which isn’t that much of a difference.”"
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la tope and bdk Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
“And that is all i could come up with in 30 seconds. Does anyone think differently?”
Toronto is number one in multiculturalism not New York,New york has fallen of the cliff first not Vancouver,Vancouver is beautiful city on earth while new york is scary place that scared the hell out of nyc’s T.Hu who is currently living in vancouver taking advantage of bc medical and not being searched by cops too often not even by security in the malls.
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MrBear Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
#71 – I was thinking “wtf?” until I looked at your article. It is dated 2008-09-30, and I’d say it is pretty much in line with other articles from the same period. If you found that article posted this month, now that would really be something.
It is interesting to reflect on how much perceptions have changed in the last few months, though. I wonder where we go from here…
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Anonymous Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
“My guess is that Dunbar with it’s lousy location , lack of services, predominance of iheritance cases awaiting in the basement, low end (illegal) suites and preponderance of absence of design goes for sub-400K by fourth quarter 2009.
That goes for Cambie, Marpole and Arbutus ( with the exception of very small snippets of Arbutus ridge) Dunbar has no such exceptional demographic going for it. Dunbar and Cambie contain no exceptional stock or development potential except pre-war tear downs. There is also a predominance of decadent space.
I know it sounds like a kick in the guts for some , but people pay for my opinion and I see no reason to shy away from the factual truth.”
This is very perceptive – Dunbar, Arbutus and Cambie are brutally overpriced. I would add Point Grey to the list of areas that are going to be hit HARD. Point Grey used to be where you went when you couldn’t afford Shaughnessy or Kerrisdale. Now, square foot for square foot, it’s as or more expensive despite being way too far west and way too far from downtown.
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read on Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
“Don’t start thinking you’ll be able to buy a $3-million condo for $2-million — you’d still be paying $2.8-million, which isn’t that much of a difference.””
*********
– even if he wasn’t lying, this is hillarious. 200k might not be much to You, oh mr Calgary RE mogul, but to normal folk it’s quite a bit.
retards.
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realpaul Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
#75&73 Wow the guy turned out to be a real prophet though didn’t he , having made that comment in September. In fact you can’t buy that 3 million dollar condo for 2.8, it’s for rent now for $1250 p/m because there weren’t any buyers at any price. Kerflushhhhhhhh
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Larry Yatkowsky Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 1:33 am
#58 Domus
Just spent some time on mls too!
max asking $1,000,000
Total listings 5
Dunbar last 30 days
3 bedrooms
lowest – $849K sold $785K tax $4200 +- DOM 101
highest – $998K sold $915 tax $4700 +- DOM 48
Observations:
$785K tips east and needs min. $250K of work to make pretty.
$915K roof leaks, rotten see thru back basement wall by power panel and hold on to your marbles otherwise they will roll out the front door.
either is a bargen
just sayin….
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alexcanuck Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 7:02 am
How it all began
“Black Monday, Sept. 15., will be remembered by a generation as the day the great recession that is now strangling the global economy became inevitable. On that day, the U.S. government made the fateful decision to allow Lehman Bros. to fail. But the catastrophe unleashed by Lehman’s collapse has far-reaching roots.”
Lots more good stuff. Nothing new if you’ve been following this crap, but well written, accurate and complete. Send this to the “newly scared”.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Re Alberta:
I predict it will be getting pretty brutal. Having family back there, a lot of manufacturing ( especially plastics related )got hit when the Canadian dollar was at par or higher than the US dollar, and this was long before the RE crash.
With Oil prices in free fall, one can see much of Alberta come to a halt. The Tar Sands had billions in future investment tabled, but it can’t be profitable at less than $40 per barrel.
We usually holiday for a week in the Shuswap, where a high % of the tourists are from Alberta with all their toys( hi- end boats , jet skis, RVs, trailers etc. etc.) I wonder how many will show up this year ?
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 8:02 am
Areas to be hit hard(est)?
I think its those areas that had become popular with a high concentration of McMansions from the post Expo 86 era.
When 2010 Olympics kicks in, many of these will be a quarter century old, and must be beginning some serious depreciation. They were basically glorified Vancouver Specials. The homes were built along the Feng Shui guidelines. their construction was on par with leaky condos…thin cheap stucco over OSB plywood, another disaster in the making only delayed via their non strata status and caveat emptor for buyer “one on one” with SFH owner. The only parties that would/could buy them to live in are….drum roll….Rich Asians !!! How many of these are left? Or do they want a 25 year old pink house built quick, cheap and outdated ?
Prediction:
These McMansions will end up as rooming houses, much like what happened to Old Shaugnessy after the depression, except that at least those old monster houses were mostly in one area, not scattered all over like McMansions are. A lot of “buy and rent out McMansion rooms” numbers do work…in fact they worked already years ago (I know, I helped someone move into one). From my understanding of Bylaws, these are not “illegal suites” , much of this is due to the communal use of facilites..ie bathrooms and kitchens…nothing has changed from the original construction. When this starts to happen…watch that “nice neighborhood” go down, all it takes is one landlord willing to take anybody with a pulse and a welfare cheque, maybe even with a blockbusting agenda mode.
Re DUNBAR area…good insiteful comments.
The line re: future inheritors living in the basement comment was a classic. However, if that is the family pattern then perhaps the price means nothing. The inheritors will be a link in a chain of inheritors and acquire it “for free” , OR they will sell for whatever they can get. From some Dunbar expatriates I know, the area had a lot of working class families , it was the edge of town back then, not much different than many pockets of the East side of Vancouver.
ARBUTUS:
Arbutus used to be called Asthma Flats , below the ridge and was a swamp. The Arbutus Mall and nearby Condos was built on or near an old City Dump.
MARPOLE:
A lot of Eburne mill workers, etc. again the edge of town till the Oak Street Bridge was built. Does have a lot of Duplex zoning, aka the “base- line” condo. BTW a realtor told me a duplex IS a strata and subject to the same rules…though many think otherwise.
Historically….. The well -off areas of Vancouver were basically West of Cambie and East of Arbutus,the rest was relative hinterland at the time for the working class and returning veterans.
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k9dr Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Surfing Realtor.ca, I requested houses in Maple Ridge selling for over $1,000,000 and came up with 162 listings.
Seriously, can there really be 162 millionaires that want to live in MAPLE RIDGE???????? (ok to be fair it did include a bit of Fort Langley)
So with 20% down ($800,000) and a 25 year mortgage you are only paying $ 5,118.45/month (or rent a similar property for $2000/month).
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ReductiMat Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 8:08 am
k9dr, don’t be so naive. It’s the new Shaughnessy.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Post # 78
Good digging..awesome story!!!
Re link to “How it all began”
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....0/GIStory/
Unreal eh?
…..especially the Kitsilano High alumni Chisick almost the Godfather of this RE collapse and financial meltdown.
(Typical product of Kits High anyway, useless yuppy-hippies then and now, a pox on humanity ).
QUOTE:
Brian Chisick was always a salesman. Born in London, England, he moved to Vancouver with his parents at age 14, but dropped out of Kitsilano Secondary School after Grade 10 to start making money. Tanned and fit, with a jutting jaw and barrel chest, he turned his hand to peddling a variety of products.
By the late 1960s, Mr. Chisick and his wife, Sarah, had landed in Los Angeles, right in the middle of the postwar housing boom. They soon found something new to flog – loans.
QUOTE:
But for the regulators that would later do battle with many of those companies, Mr. Chisick remains the godfather to the subprime lending world.
“We always say [the Chisicks] were the start of it all,” says Chuck Cross, former director of the consumer services office in Washington state. “They were the first of the big bad predatory lenders. In many ways they were much worse than some of the big ones like Ameriquest to come along in subsequent years.”
This story and the evolution of the mess spans over 3o years…quite disgusting, too many blind eyes were turned, nobody comes out looking good.
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ellery Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 9:05 am
I just looked at the big list of upcoing projects posted by Dave (well done for providing an actual link by the way). The projects all appear to have an end date of Fall 2008 and after that to have a “proposed” status. But maybe I read through it too quickly.
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squidly77 Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 9:12 am
a bitter calgary real-tot/spec buyer tees off on the
http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/
@B-sucks said…
that’s right realtor slayer. This whole tsunami isn’t going to gobble up just greedy edmonton home owners…those horrible bastards and their quads, and big screens, and bourgeois asperations…it’s going to get YOU too! You’re going down too, with them, because of them! You won’t be able to borrow two nickels to buy a shoebox in edmonton…no one will! It feels like Rome burning! Recovery won’t happen until long after these times are a distant memory. But you have to catch up…this blog WAS about greedy over leverage homeowners not letting people like you into the market, then it was about being bearish about prices when they were stratospheric, then this blog was about high-fives all around as the RE bears here all cheered crippled RE “investors”, people you know, neighbours maybe even family.
NOW this blog is about doubting whether you will remain untouched by this. Realizing that the catastrophe you cheered with such gusto is heading right for you. It swallowed up everyone else and now it’s gonna eat you too, and squidly77 and gloria and everyone else here. And as one who has made peace with losing all my flaming wealth, I’ll be cheering as this board becomes the “anybody hear of any jobs out there board”, and then the “my EI just ran out board” and then the “got any recipes for ketchup soup board”. Just checked the edmonton temps for today…brrr, cold…here’s a tip for the impending Armageddon thats gonna get you all librarys open at 8 am and are a warm place to spend unemployed homeless days. Oh and trust me on this one having experienced it myself; the mcdonalds dumpsters are a treasure trove of clean disposed food, as the stuff that is older than ten minutes is thrown into the garbage in it’s wrapper…easy to dig out and reheat over a hobo stove
December 20, 2008 8:41 AM
the fool couldnt find any more fools
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 10:12 am
And here’s a little bit of humour on this otherwise gloomy news day(from Calculated Risk blog comment post):
Lawrence Livermore Laboratories has discovered the heaviest element yet known to science. The new element, Governmentium (symbol=Gv), has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons. Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A tiny amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second, to take from 4 days to 4 years to complete. Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2 to 6 years. It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places.
Have a great weekend everyone.
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realpaul Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 10:16 am
#85. Reality bites in ALTA. What happened to all the bitching from the Liberal Party and bashers about the “Blue eyed sheiks”. Suddenly it’s all about layoffs and fleeing disaster. Strange silence from the detractors of the oil boom.
http://albertabubble.blogspot......results=50
The last sentence speaks volumes about what I think is coming to Vancouver.
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arit Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 10:20 am
OVAL
Off topic.
We visited the Olympic Oval yesterday night.
I am very pleasantly surprised with it. It is NOT a “stadium” a-la GM place et all. It is not an arena surrounded by 100,000 seats. It is not a money-generating building.
It is more like one huge community center, or gym. There is almost no room for spectators, but PLENTY of room for ‘users’. You can have people skating, running, Gym,playing basketball, volleyball at the same time under the same open space. My estimate is that you can have 1000-2000 people exercising indoors there simultaneously.
I am very impressed, this is very useful for the community.
But I heard it is only a temporary building, and I don’t get it: Does anyone here know if indeed they will dismantle the whole thing in a few years, and if so, why did they do it like this?
Regards,
arit
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alexcanuck Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 10:36 am
If today was April 1 THIS would make more sense. Are they really saying it’s hopeless, nothing you can do?
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alexcanuck Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Of course, THIS isn’t much more help.
“You’ll never come back if you sell and hold cash,” said Mark Yamada, president of PUR Investing Inc., a money management firm. “That’s a certainty. You certainly won’t lose any more money, but you won’t come back.”
Basically says says “stay the course, your money is in good hands”
The same hands that DIDN”T warn you all this was coming. The same hands that get a fat bonus for helping you go broke. The same hands that I thank God and the internet (mostly the internet) for helping me escape from BEFORE the shit hit the fan!
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Rado@freemarkets.ca Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Canadian government is now bailing out GM and Chrysler too. The bailout is double the size of the american bailout, if you account for the relative size of Canadian economy compared to US.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 10:59 am
# 88
Arit: You appear to be a very well educated very bright individual. Evidence: You have gotten approx. 70 plus family members to vote you more the 50+ Votes for being poster #1 for this topic !
(BTW : I let you do it, I took a break LOL).
In light of the aforementioned I strongly advise you to take the rose coloured glasses off and grab the Kool Aid antidote.
When the Oval was planned, (In 2004, with the SFU Oval bid collapsing, VANOC royally sucked in the City )the City originally stated they had to run it “as is ” after the Olympics, based on some sort of post – Olympic legacy funding. Now they float all sorts of ideas…they do not have a bloody clue what to do with it.
The city has already turned the Oval building into a “Corporation” Why?…to legally cover up the REAL fiscal numbers.
Olympic infrastructure is costly, the ice for speed -skating has some of the most precise specs…and requiring the host to install the most cutting edge technology. However, it will not be used after….Speed Skating prefers other sites like Calgary…so the Ovals gold – plated ice- making equipment will at best be used for hockey public skating etc.
Wouldn’t be surpised if the City is forced to sell or close Minoru Rink, common scuttlebut.
The Oval sticker price is $178 Million….is the City going to be like the 1990’s NDP Gov’t and start listing public property such as schools and hospitals as assets (implying instant liquidity ??? what a joke ). The Oval annual operating costs will suck funds from other City programs which will suffer, moreso as the economy tanks…but City Hall egos will still need to be placated.
The Oval access is a disaster, adjoining businesses will be pissed off when gridlock happens , the Oval area is serviced by 2 lane backroads crookeder than a dog’s hind leg. The Oval will probably be a bigger white elephant than Montreals 1976 Olympic facilities.
However, a lot of Vancouver’s long list of Olympic facilities are now coming online, (Curling rink recently)and I think Vancouver taxpayers will be hit and hit hard for years to come !
Can’t wait till March 2010, Olympic is over and good riddance.
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klown Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 11:15 am
factor the Canadian baby boom (2) years younger than the USA baby boom. Peak births in Canada 1961. In the USA it was 1959, midpoint between the two peaks of 1957 and 1961. Bell Curve Analysis. Common information, Stockman’s Boom, Bust, Echo, published 1969. And Fed stats.
factor the age when a person spends most money. Peak Experience, etc. Prior to Midlife crisis, around age 46.5. See Harry Dent Jr, books on demographics.
1961 + 46.5 = 2007.5
Just about the time when things start to run off the rails.
In Canada’s West more boomers because of migration from Central Canada. Also our population is more boomers than the USA, 33% here, 29% there. So sharper decline in offing.
Globally Population went out of log scale power growth in 1962. Factor a 46.5 lag for peak spending, amounts to a global economic collapse. For proof, please review Maya Classic Age. 150 AD – 880 AD.
As further proof of the demographic economic theory, aka Supply Side Economics, please review the 1930 Depreession. Factor Global die off from Influenza, 1918, appprox 5-10% global population, plus WW1 dead. Average age of Influenza victim = 30. Back in 1920’s peak spending/midlife crisis was age 41.
41 – 30 = 11
1918 + 11 = 1929 (Stockmarket crash, and Global Depression)
thank you,
be well.
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alexcanuck Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 11:16 am
NO -LYMPICS #92
You didn’t mention how Richmond gold-plated the proposal in order to steal an olympic venue and the glory and economic benefits that come with it
from Burnaby, which was in line with a more modest and (IMHO) far superior proposal.
Oh, and BTW, It was such a relief to NOT see “I’m #1. I tink” that I gave Arit a vote. I like most of your posts, but this #1 crap is too childish for my taste, and judging by your scores others agree. No offense, but please, stick to stuff above kindergarten level, m’kay?
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klown Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 11:17 am
correction: Boom Bust Echo, published 1996
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alexcanuck Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Sorry, “and the glory and economic benefits that come with it” was supposed to show up with sarcasm on, sarcasm off in HTML tags. Wordpress took it as real tags, and didn’t show it.
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la tope and bdk Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 11:24 am
GOOD AANNSSAA LARRY GOOOOOD ANSWER!
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pricedoutfornow Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 11:24 am
More anecdotal evidence that it’s a renter’s market. We decided to move to a cheaper place, first asked the landlord if they would mind reducing the rent. No go, so we started looking. Found a great place for Jan 1st where the landlord had reduced the rent by about 10% because she had advertised and had go no calls at the previous price. Advised our landlord to rent this place out whenever they can, they had a showing here last week and I thought they would have found new tenants the same day but so far…nothing. Strange…when we found this place it seemed like there were hoards of people who were all very interested in renting it.
Went to a Christmas party yesterday where one of the guys (nearing 60) said he had sold his house and was going to rent for a year (wow, you never heard THAT a year or two ago!) and said he had been to a view a rental that had been sitting empty for two months, no bites.
Then…came home last night and there was an email from a friend who wanted to let us know he’s got his place up for rent…previously his principal residence but now he’s moved in with gf.
Seems like a whole bunch of people are sitting on the sidelines about selling and this is having an impact on the rental market. Good time to be a renter.
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Keeping An Eye on The Pimps Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 11:49 am
The meltdown may in fact be worse than anyone of us bears foresaw.
By their own admission, through the latest tactics, most western central bankers have in fact conceded defeat. Finally they have realized the old adage: “monetary stimulus is like pushing with a string”.
The free market system has given way to the old, discredited, immoral, and autocratic Soviet and Chinese command style centralized economic systems.
Government control is all the rage, and the captains of free enterprise, are muted by greed, and self preservation.
Monetary policy has been so badly abused it’s no longer effective, and so now they turn to abusing fiscal policy.
The next step, is for the central planners will be to decide for us what kind of products are in demand, and what industries will survive.
The net result:
Our standard of living will eventually be lowered to that of China and Russia.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
I’M # 100 I tink
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arit Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Nolympics:
Thanks for the explanation about the oval. Seems like an unnecessary project indeed, but if we already spent the money, let’s try to make best use of it while it lasts, no?
No point in losing twice….
Regarding the “I’m first” topic:
Listen to some “very well educated very bright” advice: People did not vote ME up for being first. It is different: WE, ALL, as a group, told YOU that we don’t like the “I’m first” posts.
Are you as stubborn in real life?
Regards,
arit
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
#94 :
Recent Richmond City Staff reports stated that VANOC was the one that approached Richmond to host the Oval , and actually had the site picked out…(Ex RV park on land the City owned).
One day the truth will come out, but the bits and pieces connect enough dots to make these conclusions/comments .
Burnaby was willing to spend about $60 Million…but it appears that the Oval cost was quickly rising and Burnaby was balking and bailing . It is quite notorious for Olynmpic venues to be low balled at the start anyways. Richmond had planned to build an Olympic Broadcast Center on the Garden City Lands and dovetails its future Post Olympic use with a Trade and Exhibition Center for Tourism Richmond.
Then the Musqueam Band put an injunction on the site, and Richmond which had upfronted $500,000 to be an “Olympic partner” (WTF that really means??) was going to be left a bridesmaid. It appears that VANOC smelled blood and took advantage of it, and got Richmond Council to agree to take on the Oval with an announced sticker price in 2004 of $78 Million and on City owned land. Now its $178 Million
The Olympic movement is quite a scam, leaving debt riden cities/taxpayer victims in its wake…it is well documented, but unfortunately politicians get caught up in the IOC mind candy and never want to admit it.
Myself and a colleague pestered VANOC for info, knowing full well that the City didn’t even have a set of plans for the Oval, and thus no budget so how could they bid on something under such blank cheque conditions? VANOC’s BS-laden e-mails verified suspicions, if not made them worse.
The site for the Oval is the worst possible…below sea level, in a rain forest ,high humidity,near an airport etc. etc,makes for bad /slow ice….(unless one spends even more funds to remedy this )
IOC likes to see records broken…likely won’t happen at the Richmond Oval…which again harkens to a quickie desperation reeking decision forced by VANOC’s black hand
Burnaby will come out smelling like a rose for not getting this Oval thingie.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Arit:
In answer to your question….
Yes I am stubborn but that blessing/ gift allows me to create brilliant posts and concurrently detect humourless envious dogma – driven posters .( …..mind you , a very small minority of Star Trek watching basement dwellers ).
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Todays Vancouver Sun:
“Fuel surcharges not plunging along with the price of oil”
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....mp;k=92156
It appears that many airlines bought into the PEAK Oil sales pitches and locked into hedging strategies of “fixed fuel costs” which are approx. double what the current market price is today. They are now offering reduced ticket prices , trying to compete for customers with price wars.
Methinks this is a volatile fiscal brew which inevitably results in the last man(airline) standing.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Aaaaaah
So…
” Ritchie Bros. launches new auction site in Tokyo”
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
QUOTE:
Even just a few weeks ago, things looked better in Japan than they do now. More small companies in the world’s second-largest economy have been going belly up. And big ones, like Sony and Toyota, are cutting tens of thousands of jobs and dramatically curbing investment.
What was “recession” writ large has quickly become “recession deepens”.
It’s grim. But for Richmond-based Ritchie Bros., which auctions industrial equipment, it is as good a time as any to start building a multi-million-dollar permanent site on a 16-acre piece of land it recently purchased outside of Tokyo.
PS
Reading this story…don’t count on Rich Asians bailing out our BC economy for the foreseeable future .
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The_Dude Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
The cost of the Richmond SS oval is a pittance; in fact, it’s the equivalent of about 175 average-priced homes in Vancouver. (Or was.)
By the time prices bottom in Vancouver, I’d wager that 160 million will buy you about 400 average-priced homes in Vancouver.
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realpaul Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
weekend levity
http://economicrot.blogspot.co.....0-dec.html
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observer Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
With stories emerging like Madoff, one wonders how many companies are simply fronts for using easy credit through some scheme to steal money.
Could it be the case that some companies were not actually economically viable in the sense of producing a profitable product but were making money only by investing borrowed money in RE and stocks of those which were?
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realpaul Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
The Bad news bears are now the CREA. How ironic.
http://communities.canada.com/.....eport.aspx
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realpaul Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
In July the CREA said it was only a one month blip. How many suckers did they screw with their erroneous statements
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=656681
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Patiently Waiting Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
So what’s going to happen to all these cars piling everywhere? In the ports, at the dealership, on rented lots, at the manufacturers etc.
Which will happen first: they rust away or we see dramatic discounts until they are sold?
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bcubbins Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Self-serving moral justification from the “Grim choice” article:
Gelinas of the Manhattan Institute says it would be unfair to portray mortgage walkers as villains because it’s not unethical to take a loss and walk away from a bad investment that might keep you stuck in a “money hole” for a decade or two.
It’s not unethical to walk away from an investment you own because that is your loss. But here we are not talking about walking away from an investment. We are talking about walking away from a DEBT, money owed to someone else. When a homeowner walks away, it is someone else’s loss. That is clearly unethical.
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The_Dude Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
“When a homeowner walks away, it is someone else’s loss. That is clearly unethical.”
I disagree; there’s nobody putting a gun to the lender’s head forcing him to give anybody a loan. If more specuvestors walk away from their obligations, it just may make banks (and the end-buyers of the securitized debt) think twice before giving out a 200K loan to a part-time cocktail waitress.
If you walk away from the loan, the bank keeps the house. After all, that is the collateral that one puts up. The only problem is that the value of that collateral tends to dip below the value of the loan in a rapidly declining real estate market. But, of course, bankers knew (just like real-tards) that real estate only ever goes up, so they didn’t have to worry about the collateral part of the loan agreement.
In the end, I don’t see anything unethical on either the mortgager or mortgagee side. I do, however, see a whole boat load of greed and stupidity on both sides.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Yep, thanks to homeowners walking away, we get to where we want to be, anyhow. Tight credit bringing down prices, but still reasonable interest if you are one of those rare borrowers with a large down-payment and excellent credit.
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realpaul Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
coming down faster than expected
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1047623
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realpaul Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Canadian law doesn’t allow for that type of ” walking away’ as is being popularized in California. The lenders are well within their right to sue and will probably be successful unless the borrower take s the extraordinary step of personal bankruptcy which far mor onerous in Canada than it is in the US.
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richman Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Some people always lives in the dark room, depressed, cry their eyeballs out for the world didn’t bent over for them, no matter what market condition is. That’s ATTITUDE!
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
http://www.infomercial-hell.com/tom-vu/
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realpaul Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Richman#117, If you’re holding a real property investment you’re losing big money daily and didn’t have the brains to trade out. That’s DUMB. If you don’t care about losing money that tells me that you didn’t make it yourself, that’s INFANTILE. Ergo I ask, ” What’s grandma cooking for dinner tonight”. Do you get to take your tray back down to the basement?
And PS, your grammar, syntax and spelling tells us that you didn’t spend much time in the classroom or in an office so I assume you are not in buisness either.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
realpaul,
People will declare bankruptcy and walk away, as sure as they did in the 80s. As onerous as it might be, in many cases, its less so than their alternatives.
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alexcanuck Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
I just don’t get the “bitter renters, depressed and bleak” approach.
I am very bearish on the economy and RE market, but that has nothing to do with our personal life.
We have a wonderful life, and the best part is that it won’t change as the recession rolls on. We eat very well, we hike and camp, we have no debt and huge savings, if one or even both lost our jobs our life wouldn’t change, at the very worst we would go somewhere warm and cheap to wait it out. We have lots of time off, we love one another.
We are terrible for the economy, but we won’t change our effect on the economy as the recession starts up. We just don’t participate in the frantic race to “keep up”, and as a result we have all we want.
If more people thought like us, GDP would be half the size, and both people and the environment would be better off for it.
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anonymous Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Guess you don’t need to worry about keeping your balls warm.
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la tope and bdk Says:
December 20th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
GOOD AANNSSAA TO BEARS,GOOD AANNSSAA TO THREAD RICHMAN, GOOOOOOD ANSWER!
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Western Separatist Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 2:50 am
I believe what Happy Moon is engaging in is called “satire.”
Good posts, realpaul. Especially No. 40. I enjoy your clear writing.
With all due respect, alexcanuck, if you’re sitting on a pile of cash thinking you’re going to be king of the hill when this meltdown is over, I’m afraid you’re in for a rude awakening. Your cash will be worthless, just like everyone else’s. Our fearless leaders are speaking to us in soft tones right now so we don’t figure out that our colourful bits of paper are as worthless as stock certificates.
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alexcanuck Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 7:12 am
Ah, WS, I see you’re kind of new to these boards, or you’d have seen many posts from me some here, more at Rob’s site, on investments, inflation and deflation. Have you heard of the last one? It just might be important coming up!
“Cash” is just a convenient word to represent a range of vehicles, all quite liquid, that my carefully husbanded war-chest is deployed in.
I would warrant that MOST Canadians would really like to have had their savings in the form of paper money stuffed in a mattress this year.
Inflation, and even hyper-inflation, is a POSSIBLE future problem, but right now DEflation, AKA meltdown, is the problem. With one of those colourful bits of paper I can obtain more of almost anything else than I could have last year. That doesn’t meet my definition of worthless. An imaginary pile of those bits of paper, that doesn’t actually have any but is really the the promise that people will pay them in future, is what is worthless. If we go on deflating they will be forced into default, if inflation takes over they will be paid back, but in your “worthless bits of colourful paper”
Either way, the vast pile of unsustainable debt, the growth of which has enabled the economy to”grow” in the face of all reason, will NOT be paid back the way the future value of mutuals, stocks, bonds, pensions, houses, RRSP, etc, etc depends on.
It is debt that is rapidly losing value, not cash. This may change, if so my strategy will change.
I have no intention of being left holding worthless cash, nor a broken promise to pay me
some.
A rude awakening? One has to be asleep first, sir! I am wide awake. Good Morning to you.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 8:06 am
Richmond Olympic Oval
From ” Richmond Review” DEC. 19 , 2008 edition :
QUOTE:
In the new year, a drop-in fitness pass at the Richmond Olympic Oval will cost about the same as a movie ticket.
Beginning Jan. 5, $12.50 will give adults one day access to the 400-metre ice track, hardwood courts, a fitness class and the 6,000-square-foot workout gym.
The rate is the same as the Talisman Centre in Calgary, which oval planners used as a model.
A 60-day membership costs $60 until Feb. 25, 2009. Regular rates haven’t been announced, but expect them to go skyward. A two-month membership at the Talisman Centre is $124.
Richmond Sports Council chair Jim Lamond has plenty of questions to ask of oval brass. He said sports groups are eager to know what they can use the oval for—and for how much.
“I would expect them to sit down and discuss the rates with the community.”
Lamond said B.C. Place has hiked its rental rates so high, few sporting groups rent the often-vacant building. He said the oval can’t run the same risk.
“You don’t price yourself out of the market,” said Lamond, who suggested Richmond residents should get a break on the rates since their tax dollars built the oval.
Aran Kay, oval communications co-ordinator, said the oval could also offer a multiple card pass, which usually reduces the rate for drop-in visitors.
————-
The Pre – Olympic gouge is already starting.
Richmond staff had already tried to impliment pay parking around the Oval.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 8:31 am
RE: Post #120
” People will declare bankruptcy and walk away, as sure as they did in the 80s. As onerous as it might be, in many cases, its less so than their alternatives ” .
I agree.
Many people walked away in the 1980’s and left the keys. It’s also called “trying to get blood out of a stone”.
The Feds (in fact all levels of Gov’t )and the lending institutions have a lot to answer for, so I don’t see any purposes on beating up on the small potatoes bankruptcy candidates. With so much “Fiat Money” floating around its kind of distasteful for some entities to “actually” claim ownership of it.
Many of the developers have incorporated individual projects ( if you read their signs and the “fine print” ) as a means to reduce risk exposure. This happened a lot after the leaky condo fiasco, but we have another problem now, a leaking RE bubble.
I thought the 1980’s were ugly, but all the signs indicate that we should “fasten our seat belts” , the fiscal “G” forces are going to unwind and BIG time.
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Micky finny Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 9:25 am
Alexcnuck is working on 2yr contract then not sure about his future,he is never going to buy a 500sq.ft. condo while every one else with steady job are able to buy anytime.
On side not good ansa Western Separatist GOOD ANSWER!
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Vansanity Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 9:51 am
Realtors, contractors and others connected to the market use their words to prop up the market, this is not news, I know. However, what happens when they’re wrong?
Will the realtor be held accountable for advising a potential buyer that the home is “a good investment” one where “a buyer should buy and hold”or “flip it for profit”?
These people are giving investment advice and they are not qualified to do so. I doubt a realtor’s errors and omissions insurance would cover bad investment advice, they are not a financial advisor, afterall.
Something needs to give. People need to be held accountable for what they say. If someone listens and follows their advice and gets burned, they are the only one who suffers, I think that burden should be shared by the “professionals” offering the advice.
A quick review of the Realtors Code of Ethics shows that they are committed to “aboslute hoesty” and have their “Golden Rule – Do unto others as you would have them do unto you”. Cute how they throw in a religious [con]notation.
http://www.crea.ca/public/real.....ejan08.pdf
So really, all they would get is a suspension or elimination of their license if it made it that far. What about the money that the buyer lost?
Contractors do the same thing, I heard one recently advising someone to do a huge reno, million bucks, saying that the value of the home will go from 1 to 4M if done… how can they be so sure? What if they’re wrong?
I find it all so offensive. It’s a crime that is allowed to happen right under everyone’s nose. Buyer beware, buyer be diligent.
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Vansanity Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 9:55 am
“absolute hoNesty” above, oops.
Blogs – they’ve created a “first draft” society.
-Stephen Colbert
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alexcanuck Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 10:08 am
Re: Bad spelling. Try this one.
fi yuo cna raed tihs, yuo hvae a sgtrane mnid too
Cna yuo raed tihs? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can.
i cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno’t mtaetr in waht oerdr the ltt eres in a wrod are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it whotuit a pboerlm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Azanmig huh? yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! if you can raed tihs forwrad it
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 10:27 am
It looks like the condo flippers can’t find buyers at inflated prices to take their condos off of their hands. So these amateur real estate specultors are now being turned into newly minted landlords. It appears that these vacant condos are now flooding the rental market as these Donald Trumps in the making, scramble to cover their monthly mortgage, strata, property taxes. Guess what people? The rental market is not looking like a safe harbour of refuge from the big bad real estate market. Didn’t Bob Rennie warn you about this?
Re: Condo Rental Market Update! Getting Ugly Fast!!!!
Postby kansai_92 on Thu Dec 18, 2008 11:38 pm
Some people might argue that Craigslist rental counts might be skewed because of the simple fact that more people are using Craigslist.
But I’m also seeing approximately double the number of rentals available from Prompton leasing department when compared to last year.
In most cases rents are the same or lower when compared to last year.
Listings are also showing up with “small pets” considered, free cable and internet for a year, free Hydro for 3 months, etc.
There were virtually no ads offering incentives last year and only a handful accepting pets.
It seems that new units coming online with the completion of buildings like Coopers Lookout and H&H are putting downward pressure on the other buildings in False Creek North.
And I’m also seeing some ads on Craigslist that were originally advertised as being available for October occupancy.
It’s now mid-December. That means 4 months of hemmoraging if they’re lucky enough to find a tenant for January 1st.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 10:33 am
Speaking of accountability;
Re: Madoff’s $50 BILLION Ponzi scheme
I read an article that the U.S. Feds will investigate several firms that invested with Madoff.
May result in both Criminal and Civil suits.
I think Civil Suits are a 100% given when the “lawsuit” net gets cast, given a serious lack of due – diligence.
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Keeping an Eye on The Pimps Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 11:00 am
“Why did almost everyone believe in the omnipotence of the Federal Reserve when its counterpart, the Bank of Japan, spent a decade trying and failing to jump-start a stalled economy?”
http://thechronicleherald.ca/N.....97165.html
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 11:02 am
Advertising on Craiglist is W-A-S-T-E of time.
Tried it once…couldn’t even find the ad later …and was amazed how many ads were posted in 24 hours after mine. Frikkin 100’s of them . (Gee , Ya ‘ think maybe “free” has something to do with it?)
Also, on the guilt by association, one’s ad gets buried amongst those that blather on limitlessly with the most dumbest revelations, as opposed to basics like:
– $ Rent per month, ,
– % of Utililies ,
–# of Bedrooms,
–No Smoking/ No Pets,
–References req’d etc.
A good ad gets lost in this insane asylum of CraigsList, its more an “intellectual bloodsport” type of amusement to read.
A classic was what one VCI posted with the landlord admitting to a mice problem now fixed? yeah right !
With apologies to pet owners,(and yes I do love animals which is why I don’t imprison them like a slave LOL…. NOTE TO SELF: oops watch the pet lover backlash ) ,…a landlord of a new condo is reeking of desperation if they accept pets. You can have your insurance claims made null and void if the pet is deemed responsible for the damage.
In about 1- 2 months the pet odor will infest the place, and a lot of people have pet allergies, plus many stratas won’t allow them.
Paul wrote a while back of the apocalyptic vision of YaleTown and all those other Hi Rise areas in the with RE meltdown blast zone .
I am more convinced now of that “Apocalypse Now” vision.
“I love the smell of perspirng realtors and crapping specuvestors in the morning ” .
Overpriced newly built condos with desperate “owners on paper” trying for any/all cash flow will expose the potential landlord to bad renters,(hookers, drug labs, etc. )now with access to the entire building….. the good ones will stay away.
All too predictable.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Many bears have pointed out the median income here is unable to support the price of housing. I’m thinking though that the problem is much more severe in Vanouver and B.C., as opposed to say, Calgary, where median income is much higher in Calgary buy the cost of housing there is much cheaper!
If what we’re seeing plays out, there will be that much more speculators in Vancouver and B.C. that will be unable to complete, leading to more units being dumped back onto the market versus other Canadian cities. The supply here will balloon that much more than other Canadian cities if developers start dumping these units back on the market here versus developers in other Canadian cities where pre-sale buyers are able to complete.
What do the rest of you think?
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browntown9 Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Yeah nutslaps!
On the way up purchasers did would scream blue murder if they didnt get their condo at the agreed price.
Why should the developer expect anything but less on the down side nutslap.
Flippers were happy to take the profits. Developers were prepared to take less profit, and if the profit went to a flipper, then the developer had defrayed their risk.price go up in march
Dont cry for these flippers who go broke. They were quite happy to take the profit, thinking there was no risk. If they thought there was no risk then they deserve to be forced to accept the true nature of risk and reward.
How many condo’s were on contract, how many flippers. That is a lot of pain for a lot of people.
It wont be long before you see homeless on the streets, with signs saying, bankrupted by nasty developer.
Walk on by, and dont look back
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realpaul Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Hey, a lot of great commentary on the forum today. I particularily like the Freudian slip in #129 ” aboslute hoesty” . “ABSOLUTE WHOREISTY”, I translate . The very fact that sub-agents are unpaid salesman that say or do anything for a commission makes them bend to the unethical side when times are tough and commissions are few. You know the old saying ” As cold as a whores heart?” I think that applies to the real estate industry in spades.
Have a great holiday all.
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other ted Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 1:25 pm
I must have struck a chord with a bitter buyer. This guy at work who I was telling my thoughts on where real estate was going, apparently behind my back tried to paint me as a bitter renter. Apparently”I will never buy”. He always acts nonchallant and carefree and cool when talking about real estate. As if he is secure and not caring where prices go. But I guess I struck a chord. Not only the behind my back lash out but apparently buying before the olympics is a no lose proposition. I really wish him luck with that. he he. All the stupid arrongant people in my life are going to make this enjoyable. Get the popcorn this is going to be fun.
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mike stewart Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Don’t miss this amazing deal – it’s the best in the neigborhood!!
2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, Den, Storage and Parking – unit has so much to offer sub-zero+Bosch appliances, hardwood floors, balcony and storage locker. Brand new and never lived in completes in 2008/early 2009. Assignment of Contract – Seller is selling for below what he originally paid how can you go wrong!!!
Visit our website for pictures and more info http://www.calebquinton.com
8th at Pine
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Lord Huggington Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 1:44 pm
The more I watch this train wreck in progress, the more I want to stay away from any sort of condo when the time finally comes to buy. I originally thought a townhouse or some such would suit my needs, but it seems the sheer level of neglect as to both the construction quality, and strata councils dripping with specuvestors that don’t want to pay for proper maintenance is going to just thrash that segment of the market. After listening to that CKNW podcast about just how little many stratas are paying for upkeep as well as emergency reserves was the last nail in the coffin for me.
I remember reading either earlier this year or some time last year about many condos in Miami turning into rotting husks because so few were being properly maintained. There was mold in the hallways, paint was in bad shape, and a host of other problems. I reckon that’s a sneak peak at what the condo market here in Vancouver has in store for itself. (Sorry, I had no luck Googling that old news story)
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realpaul Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 3:40 pm
#140 Mike, I think you can rephrase the question to read
” How ‘far’ wrong could you possibly be, $100,000.00, $200,000.00+++, maybe lose it all when the building gets tied up in litigation and you’re on the hook as a principal?” This might be more to the point.
And ‘ assignment of contract” !!!!!; at this stage of a crash????? What kind of an idiot would step under that piano? Hey man , good luck with that.
To the guy who’s touting this dog ‘F-You , you F’ing sleazeball f’er. Find a job you’re more suited to, like pimping and such. And have a nice day!!!!!!
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arit Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Lord Huggington
I am with you. If before I would consider strata living, today and in the future I am staying away from it. Another lesson learned on other people’s experience.
Thank you internet.
Regarding Stewart’s post:
There is a picture of Caleb (bonus point: who knows what’s Caleb in Arabic?) standing next to his Corvette, where it says:
“It is clear that Caleb has chosen his career as a Realtor because he is able to put 100% of himself into his business and his clients’ satisfaction. He works tirelessly to sell properties for these valued clients.”
works tirelessly = post listing in a bear blog?
My definition of ‘work tirelessly’ is a bit different… LOL
Regards
arit
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arit Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 5:11 pm
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....86927.html
“In order to salvage some of our deposit, we are willing to assign this New Luxury condo which is ready and must be purchased immediately, for $10,000 less than the purchased price ($355,000) over 2 years ago!
The same suite is listed for $400,000 right now!
So you will be saving $55,000!
We are desperate not to lose our $55,000 deposit, So we are open to any offer.
More details are available upon request.”
Yawn…. 55,000 is only a small fraction of what you are about to lose. Something like 15% of your total loss…
Regards
arit
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M- Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Arit: I wonder if that specuvestor on CL has any clue what a legitimate investor might be interested in knowing– they didn’t say how big, how many bedrooms, where in Richmond, what’s so luxurious about it…….
I wonder if they even know that much about it, or if they just bought it as a “no-lose proposition, doesn’t matter what the actual specs are”!
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observer Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 5:22 pm
The Madoff Economy (by Paul Krugman)
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realpaul Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 6:25 pm
#144, Yea, and if the other suite was listed for a million dollars you’d be saving $600,000, Wow , what a deal !!!!! The horrible thing is that the only thing that will matter is what they eventually sell for. I would say that this’desperate’ couple can kiss their $55 grand goodbye and get ready to take a very cold financial enema. Brrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!! Waiting for a ’saviour’ while holding your breath can be hazardous to your health. Fairy grandmothers have left the building. How stupid are these people?
Whats that I hear? “Help me Mommy, I’ve got a Boo Boo and you have to make it go away Wahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.” Yup, thats the flushing whiny sound of another specu-vestor going through the meatgrinder courtesty of the Bob Rennie Crap Sausage and Bullshit factory.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Financial crisis hits home in Hamptons (U.S.)
http://business.theglobeandmai.....m_mostview
QUOTE:
NEW YORK — Just months after he was ousted from Lehman Brothers, Joseph Gregory put his mansion in tony Bridgehampton, N.Y., on the market for $32.5-million (U.S.)
The former president of the sinking investment bank could not have picked a worse time.
The Hamptons, a summer vacation playground for New York’s financial and celebrity elite, are being hit hard as Wall Street power houses such as Lehman and Bear Stearns succumb to the financial crisis.
According to a report by Douglas Elliman, real estate prices fell 11 per cent in the third quarter in the Hamptons, an exclusive section on the eastern tip of Long Island, less than 60 kilometres from New York City.
——
Suggestion: put it on CraigList, that tends to attract the
more elite amonsgst us.
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Even more important re Vancouver Condos and the RE future !!!
” Father offers daughter to shoe-thrower”
http://www.reuters.com/article.....UH20081217
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NO -LYMPICS Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 11:08 pm
FINANCIAL FACELIFT
” Lose the house, buy a condo”
http://business.theglobeandmai...../Business/
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 11:11 pm
#136,
If 2.5 million people in greater vancouver start earning top income what will happen to housing sector you fucking idiot there are only 625.000 home in greater vancouver you fucking son of bitch don’t you read that future supply at number #2 on this thread you fucking idiot those are all ready sold out you fucking bastard.
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realpaul Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 11:27 pm
#150. Think of it, 67 years old and no savings, these people are in trouble. It’s cat food time.
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 11:50 pm
What do you mean by those people are in trouble?.
If you own a house at that age you are definitely sitting mortgage free nothing to worry about paying rent etc,maximum home owner grant at that age.
If you think of losing value? again they have nothing to lose 133% appreciation in last five year based on 2007 what it would be since when ever they own their homes?
I didn’t get you further then this unless you speak little bit more about your concern.
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Yalie Says:
December 22nd, 2008 at 2:15 am
Re: Krugman article. Great link. I often have a sharp difference of opinion from Paul Krugman, but this time I can’t agree more.
I lived in London during the mad days of the middle of this still-unnamed decade, and can say first hand what an orgy of money it truly was for the investment banksters over there. People I knew in their late 20s and early 30s were making half a million pounds a year in bonuses, on top of their already huge salaries and stock option packages. I knew back then that something was horribly wrong with the system when so many people were getting so rich by simply moving money around and not creating anything of real value.
The worst thing is, they’re getting bailed out while at the same time keeping the money they “earned” during the good days.
Actually that’s not the worst thing. The worst thing is that things are about to get much, much worse. Inflation, deflation, it doesn’t matter whose prediction wins in the end. There will be a lot of suffering in the next few years, MUCH more than people today even think, even with all the doom and gloom. The banksters still have our money and they’ll be enjoying it from their Cayman Island resort condos for the next little while. And they didn’t leave back here much for us.
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anon Says:
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:27 am
the sad thing is that once too many people agree with the bleak future of the vancouver RE, its bound to happen.
The funny thing is that after the party last weekend I am absolutely sure that the downward trend would continue. Not because of the fundamentals, or overpriced market or else. Just because that everybody I talked to agreed that it would go lower. This strikes me quite a bit, and I think that -30% is not reasonable anymore, it should/would be bigger drop, only because of the people emotions skewing the fundamentals..
The RE is very emotional investment, and this time the emotion is negative (across the board). Cheers…
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Anonymous Says:
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:41 am
#140 Mike – you must be Desperate to post that listing on this Blog! I just finished watching your recent You Tube Video, pathetic. If I were you, I would start looking for another line of work!
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vancouverboom2 Says:
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:20 am
I am very sorry for earlier post, it was very rude and disrespectful to all of the guests and posters on this blog. I admit I am an idiot and know nothing about Vancouver real estate or real estate in general. I’m pathetic, sorry :_(
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ConnectTheDots Says:
December 24th, 2008 at 11:09 am
I love this and all the other blogs. They have certainly helped me not feel alone when I began investigating the RE market here.
However I am concerned that many people here are very aware that our government and media have been complacent in making this bubble, but they have not stepped out of the RE realm to see that this is just part of the BIG PICTURE.
Sure many of you have, but many have not and still see this as an isolated realm.
We are heading into the ENDGAME SCENARIO of our way of life.
I understand this is a RE blog and not a 9-11 truth site so I will not make this a long post but let me assure you that this economic meltdown is not by accident. It was not unforeseen. It was planned and orchestrated.
Many of you already know this. For those that don’t…
start researching.
Merry Christmas
http://www.infowars.com