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December 19th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I think the short term crystal ball will show the BC Gov’t will crank up the 2010 Olympic propoganda to calm the potential revolt by the masses. Good bloody luck !
Local Gov’ts are likely shitting bricks right now, given they have to produce balanced budgets in the next few months but their fiscal projections are all shot.
Terminal fiscal vampire Translink should be either neutered or euthanized.
etc….. etc….
etc.
Maybe this is a golden opportunity(ala “Lemonade out of lemons”) for democracy to be seized back from the jaws of these assholes.
December 19th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
The “bulls” arguing that we’ve reached bottom and that we’ll come through ok remind me of the last days of Nazi Germany, when Hitler refused to believe that the Russians were about to over-run them and would issue counter-attack orders to non-existant armies and hand out metals to the 12 and 70 year olds that were defending Berlin – when all the mentally functional germans were fleeing to the western front so they could surrender to the Americans.
We’re not debating with bulls here, we’re debating with people who are so tied emotionally to their belief that they can’t admit defeat no matter how clear it is. It’s really a waste of time – like trying to convince someone who believes in god that there may not be one, they’ll just cite the bible as “proof”.
December 19th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
PS
http://condohype.wordpress.com/
December 19th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Dave #41, 136 pages of historical wish lists. I think there was an Elevator to the Moon proposal listed on page 126. Dream on.
As I said ” If our politicians have so far been proven to be lying, self serving , incompetant assholes thus far why would you expect people to rally around the flag of leadership now”.
I know that shocking the population was an effective Stalanist social engineering tool, but do you think that the same Machiavellian tact will work here under current conditions ?
Dave, wheres all that money going to come from. The Fed has already stated that there is no money coming unless contingent with Provincial participation. The NDP finance critic ( and if you knew me you’d know I’m loath to agree with the NDP on anything) I think has the Olympic budget figures right for a change.
The Provincial government has blown it’s wad on the Olympics at approx 3.5++ Billion and has no fallback plan It’s a strictly scorched earth financial plan which has blown up in their faces due to the onset of the global recession. Theres no money left for bailouts and make work projects in BC, we’re all freaking doomed.
Does anyone want to speculate why Carol Taylor bolted. She’s a smart woman who obviously wanted nothing to do with the backlash thats coming down the hill.
December 19th, 2008 at 10:40 am
shut up 44 bdk
December 19th, 2008 at 10:25 am
RE: Bosa in White Rock.
Having family that lives out there…that project really had the local community up in arms.
Prior to that Bosa project, the highest building in White Rock was maybe 8- 10 stories.
From what I hear, the 1st phase of the Bosa project has been a white elephant, lots of unsold condos. Bosa acquired the land by displacing commercial tenants in existing buildings ,(typical “land making machine” these days) but have now cancelled the next phases, leaving an urban blight of empty stores. Who knows if and when the market will rebound ?
Again, a sign of the big developers bending the ear of naive Councils with pie in the sky BS, and was it all worth it in the end ? This crash and burn is being repeated all over BC.
December 19th, 2008 at 10:21 am
i have nothing to say so i just write a bunch of words together that I want the economy and the housing market to improve even though i know it won’t for decades to come
December 19th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Growth stopping or minor shrinkage is not a ‘sinking ship’.
You’ve confused the beginning of a recession with the full depth of the recession. The recession has just begun. 2008 is going to look like a good year compared to 2009.
A better analogy would be the ship running into a slight headwind with some minor waves.
LOL. Keep dreaming.
We’ll get through it, just like every other time.
Of course we’ll ‘get through it’, but many will not get through it financially unscathed.
December 19th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Re Oil prices:
Talked to a colleague re: the Automaker crash and the possible bailouts.
I mentioned that perhaps the automakers would downsize their product lines,make more practical and efficient products, ( at least no more midgets as sole occupants driving those jacked up 4 X 4 crew cab Pickups with huge tires you need a step ladder to access). My view was that would create less demand for oil and stop the scam of $1.40 +/litre gas we had recently from repeating.
He stated that switching from say V-8 down to say mostly 6 or even 4 cylinder would “maybe” reduce Oil consumption by 6 – 8 % at best,that’s it.
Sensing where this was going, he then formally ” filled in the blank” that much of the world’s Oil is actually used to produce consumer products (plastics etc.). The specuvestors ramped up the benchmark price of Oil , but that gave a false reading of the economy .
In essence, the collapse in oil prices is more a reflection of the health of the global economy’s overall manufacturing output, crucial in most countries. Oil is basically a raw material for much of what we buy. China , the emerging economic giant has already closed tens of thousands of factories.
Oil and Condos DO mix…. Offshore investment collapses, round round she goes, ….where she stops NOBODY knows.
December 19th, 2008 at 9:55 am
As the projects for the 2010 Olympics are finished ( such as the Oval in Richmond) where are all these labourers going to go?
Here is the list of coming projects:
http://www.gov.bc.ca/tted/atta.....282008.pdf
December 19th, 2008 at 9:44 am
No-Lympics #30. I too smell a rat. I have the distinctly ugly feeling that our media here in Canada is being far less than forthcoming with the truth in a timely unbiased manner. I have to assume that things are much worse than is being reported, because anectodatal evidence is so contrary to the medias portrayal of our state of affairs. It’s not just contradictory , it’s antipodal.
An intelligent person ( who doesn’t swallow every message the media proffers)has to assume that if recession is taking hold all over the planet and that in particular our biggest trading partner ( who by the way is 85% of the Canadian economy) to the south is in so much trouble that little BC is not an island of economic tranquility. Give me a break, that makes no logical sense. Is anyone going to suggest that our US neighbours who are far more financially astute than their Canadian counterparts are going to do worse than we are here in Vancouver. Come on !
If Gordon Campbell and our asshole lying politicians have been such proven screw ups in the good times of the past, why would anyone rally around their flagpole now. Surely no on here on this forum is that insecure, or insane !
Renters can’t be found by budding landlords at current asking prices because they ( asking prices) don’t have any relationship to reality. Asking prices for 500 sq, ft ‘coffins’ are $3000 p/m on Craigslist. Do you wonder why they can’t find tenants. These owners have alligator mortgages that they are trying to cover, and can’t. If you have landlord experiance then you know the rule # 1 in the buisness, “cash flow to service debt”, I/R = V, period, hasn’t changed since they took Christ down from the cross. It’s written in stone.
Thousands of construction workers and the industries that support construction activity have been laid off with the projects that have been cancelled. Seriously, count them; how many jobs get lost when one project gets cancelled, ( never mind the thousands of people who have recently lost their jobs to the waves of layoffs taking place) now multiply that by the number of projects that have been cancelled. How many houses are also not being built. I see projects being cancelled ( including SFH sites) all over the valley. For example Bosa Brothers massive stealth cancellation of 1162 units in White Rock for example, that’s a lot of carpets not being laid. Think about the supply chain ramifications.
I have witnessed reverse migration in the statistics recently,where major labour contraters are sending workers home. So much for a never ending supply of immigrants. This affects landlords and condo sellers alike. As the projects for the 2010 Olympics are finished ( such as the Oval in Richmond) where are all these labourers going to go?
Business is not as rosy as the media is portraying. There is only one major media empire in this country, how difficult is it to assume that there may be an information bottleneck.
December 19th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Several months ago I discovered a web-site written by Chris Martenson. He is an American and he writes primarily about US economic conditions and such. I am sure some people on this blog are familiar with his work.
To make a long story short, Chris is a huge critic of current financial affairs in the US and uses plain data to support his positions and conclusions. He rarely writes about RE, but has, in my opinion, a good peace written about it today. It is called “Mortgage rate blowout – a new bubble in the making?” and here is the link:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/.....king/10439
I am curious to know if people on this blog can see the same scenario that Chis describes unfolding in Canada down the road.
Thank you.
December 19th, 2008 at 9:36 am
From the Greator Fool blog
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008...../#comments
Garth is showing a photo of 2 houses….
QUOTE:
“So, look at the houses above.
The one on the left has 2,978 square feet, the one on the right 2,634 square feet. The one on the left was built 80 years ago, the one on the right, 63 years ago. The one on the left sits on a lot 35 by 160, and the one on the right on a lot 50 by 120. The one on the left has 6 bedrooms, and the one on the right has 5 bedrooms.
They are both active listings at the moment within downtown neighbourhoods of two large cities.
The house on the right is listed at $998,000. The house on the left is for sale at $300. (That’s not a typo.)
Can you guess where? ”
QUOTE from a Greater Fool poster
” I have a friend who just got back from Detroit U.S.A. where he was surprised to see that you can take bus tours of the foreclosures. The pamphlet that he recieved for the area he was about to tour showed more than 20 houses for less than $1,000 with the cheapest house being $250. All properties on city services, houses all over 1,300 sq. ft. Just hard to believe! And we think our prices have crashed here in Canada!? ”
December 19th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Bush announces auto rescue
Government to loan GM and Chrysler $13.4 billion from Wall Street bailout fund so that the embattled auto firms don’t run out of cash.I am in kind of agreement with vancouver boom2
I bdk swear and affirm that i accept my defeat on this forum.
December 19th, 2008 at 9:31 am
It’s a bad analogy and serves only to exaggerate the downturn. Growth stopping or minor shrinkage is not a ‘sinking ship’. A better analogy would be the ship running into a slight headwind with some minor waves. We’ll get through it, just like every other time.
December 19th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Benjamin Tal couldn’t predict his way out of a hallway. I remember seeing one of his economic presentations before the crash gained momentum and he insisted that canada didn’t have US subprime so therefore we’re going to do great. He had total tunnel vision and wouldn’t even consider ideas outside of the standard economists predictions.
December 19th, 2008 at 9:20 am
You’re on sinking ship and the crew hands out lifejackets and you think it’s great that the lifejackets are free.
great analogy!
when times were good they were handing out “kool-aid” enemas for free also and look where that got us….
December 19th, 2008 at 9:17 am
When the market turns for the better, you’ll only know after its happened…
Yah, that housing market is going to snap right around after languishing on the bottom for a decade. Hope I don’t miss the glacial uptick.
December 19th, 2008 at 9:17 am
How can Oil under $40/barrel and a predicted Federal stimulus package of $30 billion be something to be unhappy about?
I don’t see these things as being good for the West.
With respect to oil, $40 a barrel hurts our provincial budget and spending. Low oil prices will mean less incentive for companies to pay top dollar for oil rights. Low oil prices will mean less oil royalty. The only reason that BC is going to run a budget surplus this year is due to the sale of natural gas rights in the north-east. Obviously cheap oil is going to hurt investment in Alberta as well. A lot of BC’s economic activity is from the oil patch. I think cheap oil hurts us more than it helps us.
With respect to the looming federal deficit, it seems doubtful to me that BC and Alberta are going to get their fair share. Rather, it will probably be a net negative considering the amount of transfer payments we kick in due to us being have provinces.
I would rather see Canada and our provinces not run deficits. The downturn in the economy wasn’t internally driven but is more external in nature. Once the world economy turns around, we will be well positioned for a recovery. Throwing taxpayer money around and bailing out bad businesses hurts us more in the long run. Let the bad businesses fail and better ones will take their place. Infrastructure spending is somewhat OK in my mind as long as it goes to things that we really need and things that will provide a net economic benefit.
That said, I am not pessimistic about our economy. It is more diverse than many people are willing to believe. Employment levels are good. Immigration is still positive. And… it is a great place to live.
December 19th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Idiot said: “Its not all that bad…
How can Oil under $40/barrel and a predicted Federal stimulus package of $30 billion be something to be unhappy about?”
Ask yourself why those things are happening, genius.
Oil is crashing in part because demand is crashing amidst an incipient world-wide recession.
The Fed has to shell out $30 billion *because they have to* in a possibly vain attempt to keep markets from crashing further.
You’re on sinking ship and the crew hands out lifejackets and you think it’s great that the lifejackets are free.
Grab a brain, the crash is just beginning.
December 19th, 2008 at 9:10 am
I’ll take the RENTAL market as the best parameter on the health of the local RE market.(aka Supply versus Demand )
Our family has been Landlords going on 40 years. If it takes you more than 2 months to find a renter, there is a SERIOUS problem.
You are either priced too high…or there are too many options for the renters. It is our experience that most renters don’t think long term…they give their notice and then scramble to find a new place, in what used to be a tight market with low vacancy rates.
We tended to price the rent below the market rent for comparable accomodations,and found that was very successful.
If all these condos owners can’t find a renter, or have tried for several months…and still SOL… Yiiiikkkess !!!
December 19th, 2008 at 8:59 am
I talked to some realtors last night and they all said Mike Stewart is the biggest tool who prices units way high and then prances around in a top hat.
December 19th, 2008 at 8:58 am
It is the reasons why oil is under 40 and we need* a stimulus package that worry me. And don’t worry, Mike. Most bears around here WILL see the market turn, and in the interim will no trouble at all making their mortgage, car lease, credit card, LOC or any other payments. Bears don’t get rich quick. Slow and steady is the key, but you’d better believe we’re ready to put a fat war-chest to work once enough bulls are exposed for the shams that they are.
Part of slow and steady is knowing when to move quickly. You have to be prepared to move quickly. I, for one, am in the peak of training, with cash reserves up the yin-yang.
Not quite yet. Patience. The time is drawing near.
*Like I need a hole in my pocket!
December 19th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Hear hear here? Nice to see you here Mike.
Benjamin Tal says Vancouver and the West will fare better than the rest of the country!
Sorry, is this the same Benjamin Tal that warned us about $200 oil? The same one that said this on wednesday?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com...../Business/
Sorry Mike, please try again!
December 19th, 2008 at 8:47 am
From Bloomberg
MORTGAGE RATES (Rates may include points.)
CURRENT 1 MO. PRIOR
15-YEAR 5.23 5.73
30-YEAR 5.27 6.07
1-YEAR ARM 5.67 5.63
These are low interests, historically. yet the RE market is tanking. Welcome to the world of the house price crash. And it’s going to last much longer.
December 19th, 2008 at 8:43 am
deflation at the rink, right on
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....9/GIStory/
December 19th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Kits apartments (transaction prices) are down well over 5% YOY. Just ask your realtor
As for mortgage rates: they can drive them to the ground, people still won’t buy. If anyone is under the illusion that next year there will be a pickup in the market, you are GROSSLY mistaken. 2009 will be much WORSE than 2008.
This market is Kaput, until prices halve in real terms. After that, expect a perdio of flatness and finally (maybe 4 years from now) a new pick up in prices.
No hurry, folks: take your chair and butter the popcorns. the show has just started and you can relax and enjoy it!
December 19th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Boys…
Its not all that bad…
How can Oil under $40/barrel and a predicted Federal stimulus package of $30 billion be something to be unhappy about?
When the market turns for the better, you’ll only know after its happened…
And the hard core bears will still be hear denying it!!
December 19th, 2008 at 8:25 am
mea culpa…..
in Jan/07 i boldly predicted prices would be down by 10% by the end of Dec/08….. I was WRONG!
so this year…. no predictions
but i am holding out to pay $300K for a West side teardown, there may be some motivated sellers out there this year……
2009 The Year of the lowball
mugio pretium is annus(C)
December 19th, 2008 at 6:45 am
Post # 17
Thanks for posting that re: commodities trading.
Everytime I filled up in 2008 I felt scammed and ripped off moreso than usual.
I guess too many people bought and drank that Kool Aid too.
People must have felt a hot RE economy justified a rising tide raises all ships, when in fact it was the exact opposite, specuvestors active in all sectors.
Oil business is notorious for playing these games with the PEAK Oil gurus fearmongering. If , as you say , by the end of 2007 the writng was on the wall re: U.S. RE, they double – dipped to fool all that all was well in the economy with another round of specuvesting . Oil has experienced a huge % crash in price from peak -to -current price , moreso than RE.
The gas gouging , in my view, was a final fork in the turkey…it tipped the bogus economy into the abyss faster by creating an ill timed fiscal black hole .
December 19th, 2008 at 3:42 am
“Shackle doesn’t fit that category. The single, first-time homebuyer bought a two-bedroom condo in Calimesa, Calif., in 2006 for $191,000. She wasn’t required to put any money down despite her limited income as a waitress, thanks to a lofty credit score of 788.
The financing consisted of two interest-only loans with initial rates of about 7 percent and 10 percent. Her monthly payment, including an escrow account for property taxes and insurance, was about $1,400 a month. That was manageable until she had serious problems with asthma and missed a lot of work.”
This is obscene, but by no means an extreme example (especially by Vancouver standards).
We can rage about personal responsibility, but the banks know financial ignorance and illiteracy run rampant in the general population. This was a single cocktail waitress with a freaking interest-only $200,000 loan (no money down).
And as the Other Ed mentions, the banks are getting the multi-trillion dollar bailout. Shackle (how ironic) will suffer for her bad decisions, while the banksters laugh all the way to the…bank.
And as much as I don’t like corporate bailouts either, are any of us prepared for social meltdown that will occur once several cities lose their economy entirely…while the banksters count their money…this has the making of a revolution.
December 19th, 2008 at 3:15 am
On the first day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Another land making machine.
On the second day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the third day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the fourth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the fifth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the sixth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the seventh day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the eighth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the ninth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Nine shoebox condos,
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the tenth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Ten years of losses,
Nine shoebox condos,
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the eleventh day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Eleven bubbles popping,
Ten years of losses,
Nine shoebox condos,
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
On the twelfth day of Christmas,
my true love sent to me
Twelve David Lereahs,
Eleven bubbles popping,
Ten years of losses,
Nine shoebox condos,
Eight hours dreaming,
Seven days no showings,
Six figure losses,
FIVE OLYMPIC RINGS!
Four HELOCS,
Three price cuts,
Two rich asians,
And another land making machine.
December 19th, 2008 at 2:39 am
Jingle Bulls Christmas Carol:
Dashing from the banks
eviction comes your way,
O’er the fields we go,
bankrupt by Wednesday;
Bells on bob tail ring,
buyers out of sight,
What fun it is to laugh and sing
you’ll be homeless tonight, O!
Jingle bulls, jingle bulls,
foreclosure today!
Oh! what fun it is to fall
and throw your wealth away, hey!
Jingle bulls, jingle bulls,
foreclosure today!
Oh! what fun it is to fall
and throw your wealth away!
December 18th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
This is a good one:
http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=1045
Despite many efforts to get industry experts to fess up, yours truly had a hunch that could find no purchase. Finally, en route to Austin from New Orleans, an encounter with a Houston energy trader yielded the plausible anecdote that just might provide the elusive answer. This gentleman explained that a New York investment banker had told him point-blank that near the end of 2007 the investment banks were getting their clocks cleaned so brutally by the sub-prime crash, that they desperately needed to shore up their balance sheets. Hungry investors wanted results.
So, they doubled-down on commodities trading, especially oil futures. Why? Because, hitherto, fluctuations of more than two percent in securities raised eyebrows; whereas daily gyrations of five, seven, even 10 percent in commodities would scarcely cause an eyelash to bat. A bidding war on that pinch of oil supply ensued, as ever-avaricious hedge fund managers sought to capitalize on the oil scare. Up and up and up went the price, fueled by analyst firms telling us that $200 per barrel was right around the corner.
December 18th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Some people might argue that Craigslist rental counts might be skewed because of the simple fact that more people are using Craigslist.
But I’m also seeing approximately double the number of rentals available from Prompton leasing department when compared to last year.
In most cases rents are the same or lower when compared to last year.
Listings are also showing up with “small pets” considered, free cable and internet for a year, free Hydro for 3 months, etc.
There were virtually no ads offering incentives last year and only a handful accepting pets.
It seems that new units coming online with the completion of buildings like Coopers Lookout and H&H are putting downward pressure on the other buildings in False Creek North.
And I’m also seeing some ads on Craigslist that were originally advertised as being available for October occupancy.
It’s now mid-December. That means 4 months of hemmoraging if they’re lucky enough to find a tenant for January 1st.
December 18th, 2008 at 11:29 pm
Ah to have one’s post referenced by VHB. It’s like God saying “That dude over there’s got it going on…”
Thought I would mention another quote normally attributed to Ghandi: “First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.”
Given all the angry realtors and guys like Dave who are trying to justify high prices with … shall we say…. questionable theses and data, we’re in the “then they fight you” phase of the game.
It’s been a hard slog for bears. I owned a great place in Toronto and frankly, I *completely* get the pride in ownership thing. I loved my home, and felt like it *was* a home, a great one.
I moved here in 2006 and instantly sensed something was off. People were… irrational. I was making a little less then I did back in TO, but there was just no way I could afford *anything* here. It was bizarre. If I had made my Van salary back in TO I could at least have swung something modest. But the Van salary and Van prices…. no way.
And the people… when you spoke Real Estate, it was like the turned into Pod People. They all said the same thing and none of it made any sense at all. I kept asking myself “Am I crazy, or am I like the only sane person in this city”?
Then I saw an article in the Straight which referenced VHB. Ah the power of the internet…. Back in the 90s is made being gay in Antigonish, NS bearable because (heh) I knew I wasn’t the only one out there, and it made being a bear in Vancouver bearable (heh) for the same reason.
VHB, the Pope and CondoHype, they’re like the Holy Trinity of bear bloggers. Thanks everyone. If it weren’t for you I never would have survived.
And SatV, thanks to you, too. If ever there was a useful idiot, it’s you. As far as I am concerned you perfectly represent the id of bulls, so stupid venal and greedy you can’t even think well enough to write a proper sentence.
Oh and Majel Barret (Nurse Chapel from Star Trek) just died. God this has been an awful year.
December 18th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Hey guys! Let’s countdown to the New Year! We have 13 days to go until the New Year! Because prices are dropping at the rate of $1K a day for a detached SFH in Vancouver, we can do our countdown to the New Year each day, starting at $13K rather than 13 days!!
$13K
$12K
$11K
$10K
$9K…
December 18th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
My first thought when starting into that “grim choice” article:
But the reality was undeniable: While she was keeping up with the monthly payments, she said she could no longer afford to buy food for herself or even kitty litter for her two cats.
How about you eat your cats? Two birds with one stone, and you won’t be leaving taxpayers on the hook for your poor financial management skills.
Yes, that is a bit excessive, but I’m going to be pissed when governments start “inflating away debt” to help out people who spent beyond their means on the backs of those of us who sacrificed and saved responsibly. The risk of hyperinflation is the one thing that keeps me up at night.
December 18th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Yes, big recruiting move for Whistler Gondola repairman to make sure safe and ready for 2010…many Gondola repairman coming from Arab Emirate countries these will create demand for both condos and cous -cous (not necessarily in that order) Bob Rennie be happy able to increase” paint by number” stick men art collection have a merry Xmas + John the SUV collector will flash his bling especially after selling 30 cylinder Hummer to David Suzuki , because Vancouver real estate never go South aka NEVER GO DOWN !!!!, only reason market stall was Mats Sundin uncertainty,now resolved thank Allah even if Scandinavian Hockey Hessian Sundin only stay one year, maybe trade for much better Sean Avery later , who cares Tampa BaY Lightning catch fire when Phil and Tony Esposito come out of retirement and sell AmWay….
December 18th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Dagnabit, I am not #1….$%#@&
December 18th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
I said morgage rates, not central bank interest rates. Nice try dumbass.
December 18th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
“Mortgage rates are just starting to drop ”
In the week that the fed announced ZIRP, I think this is a fine candidate for Bullsh!t of the week.
December 18th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
Domus, more research required. Mortgage rates are just starting to drop now due to deflationary pressures. Marginal areas like mount pleasant have seen condo values drop about 25%, Kitsilano values have dropped five percent at the most.
December 18th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Just for curiosity, I have gone to dig up some of the posts I made at Rob Chipman’s blog last december (2007).
Back them bulls still had the upper hand: they were killing me and Blueskies (good ole Blueskies) and making fun of us.
Even ou predictions were prudent: i think I was not expecting a drop larger than 4% in 2008 overall. It turns out the drop was twice as large.
This market has all but crashed! It is a major crash, as well, nothing like the mid-1990s retrenchment!
Even more interesting, from an historical prespective, is that this has happened:
1- with low mortgage rates, well below past historical levels;
2- in a situation of low unemplyment, which is still hovering around 6%;
It makes you think this crash has strong shoulders, if it can happen when labor/mortgage markets are in decent shape (at least by historical comparisons).
The crash is going to get worse: we might see decent SFH on the west side going for below 700K within the end of 2009. Condos are doomed: 2 bedrooms + garage on Kitsilano will start trading around the 400k mark pretty soon.
One only doubt: like in December 2007, I might be erring on the cautious side. the crash might actually be even larger…..
December 18th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
oh yeah nutslappys! remembers some will call for “trevor”, some will call for “mats”, but mostly december 2008 they will call it
“the bottom”
December 18th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
the pope,
Delete comment number 4 and this one as well thanks no more bs.
December 18th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Here is what will happen in Vancouver just ten times worse because Vancouver only has 1/10 of the people and lower salaries is why vancouver boom in march.
“in Southern California. The median price for an area with more than 20 million people has now breached the $300,000 mark. This is significant because the peak of $505,000 was reached only last summer.
The market has deteriorated so quickly and with such devastation, it gives me pause to think what is going to happen when the $300 billion in pay option ARMS (POA) recast in 2009 through 2012. ”
December 18th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
I am not for bailouts and I sure am not for unions but bailing out auto made more sense than bailing out the banksters. Not really advocating the auto bailout but lets face it they are asking for far less than even AIG and are far more important to our economies. Well our as in Canada(ie toronto) out here won’t make much of a dent as we don’t have a real economy. But really disapointed in Bush the bank bailout may be over $4 trillion but the guy has no problem watching gm go under.
Interesting about the $200 oil. I never believed in the prices for oil I always felt it should have never gone above $50 but I even believed it would hit $200 briefly. I thought the speculators would briefly take it there and when it hit the meltdown we are facing would happen. I was half right it hit $147 and we still got the meltdown. I guess it didn’t have to go that high for all of this to happen. I remember telling family this just before summer. A few people phoned me to tell me they remember me being the only person predicting what would happen and how it would play out.
December 18th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
VANCOUVER IS PICKING UP ECONOMY MOMENTUM
check the no.1 link on fffa.
FUTURE SUPPLY FOR DOWNTOWN VANCOUVER
2009=3,799 UNITS,2010=840 UNITS,2011=836 UNITS
welcome to vancouver
NEXT SHOW IS ABOVE TO BEGUN
December 18th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Nolympics – Don’t even think about it. Enough
Regards
arit